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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  March 9, 2022 8:30pm-9:01pm AST

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both ukraine and russia have agreed to conceive on the walker. you know, a pro residents are asking me to make sure the russian federation fulfills its promises and people can leave the places they've been hiding from the fire in the shelling that is killing them. the spokeswoman of the russian ministry of foreign affairs accuse the ukrainian government of feeling to give citizens clear guidance on humanitarian corridors. she says 2000000 people have turned to russia for assistance and 140000 have already entered the country since the invasion began. she also says the ukrainian military is using phosphorus which is illegal if used against civilian progress and why am store the ukraine and military supported by extremists, nationalists, and military battalions. the russian side has noted the use of phosphorus weapons and it's forbidden by the un new allegations of war crimes have emerged. and as the international says, as people lined up to get bread in
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a public square insurance here last week, it was hit by multiple bombs. 3 people were killed. amnesty says its investigation shows at least 8, so called dumb bombs, rain down on the square, and it's likely a russian air strike. this is one of a growing number of alleged attacks on civilians. a violation of the geneva convention. the international criminal court is now investigating war crimes in ukraine. natasha going to l just 0. ah. this is altogether, these are the job stories your secretary of state antony blink. and his accused russia of preventing civilians from fling ukrainian cities. it was speaking after holding talk, so the u. k. counterpart lives trust in washington d. c. they said it would keep pushing for sanctions to isolate russia was and i've
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been working around children's hospital has been bombed in the city of mario paul, according to local officials, president following me are zalinski says children are trapped under rubble following a target by russian forces ukraine accuses russia encircling the city, cutting off supplies of water and electricity to its residence. in the evacuation of civilians from ukraine's besieged city of sumi, continuing for a 2nd day. more than 5000 people have been moved out since tuesday. 6 evacuation roots are being agreed with russia. previous attempts to bring civilians to safe ground or mark by cease fire violations. those are the headlines, of course you get a lot more detail, all the background and all these stories in the war in ukraine on the website. i'll just hear dot com coming up next inside story. good boy, a story of law deception life and death,
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and israeli spine operating on the deep cover in syria, knowing that discovery would meet certain death, algae 0. wow. tell us a gripping story. most at spy, eli coming, operated under cover in syria in the 1960. i know dish is korea that ended in public execution. eli cohen must have agents atm on al jazeera planning, washing oil and gas, u. s. president joe biden said the moves aimed at hitting the main artery of roches economy. but one of the consequences for the rest of the world would stop vladimir putin war on ukraine. this is inside story. ah. hello, welcome to the program. i'm adrian for us. president joe biden has imposed
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a ban on russian oil and gas, and the u. k announced that it will phase out in ports of russian oil by the end of the year before those measures would answer russia ward of traffic traffic consequences for the global economy. a white house correspondent, kimberly how could reports. it's a major escalation of u. s. economic sanctions against russia for its invasion of ukraine. on tuesday, u. s. president joe biden went after president vladimir putin's most lucrative industry. we're banning all in ports of russian oil and gas in energy and means russian oil no longer be accessible us porch to the american people will deal another powerful blow to put his war machine. the decision by president biden to bad russian energy imports into the united states, follows pressure by the us congress, and pleased by ukrainian president vladimir zalinski biden acknowledged. the latest
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sanctions could cause a spike in us gas praises consumers are already paying on average more than $4.00 a gallon up from $2.77 just a year ago, due to high inflation. as the economy recovers from, the coven pandemic says: prune began is military build of ukrainian borders just since then. the price of the gas, the pump, an american, up to $0.75. and with this action is going to go up further. the white house is directing the release of some of the us strategic petroleum reserves to contain prices and compensate for last supply. but the white house maintains high gas prices might also encourage you as consumers to switch to green energy and electric vehicles. but this analyst says the united states is nowhere near ready. the biggest user of oil in countries, transportation,
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and transportation depends on having things like electric vehicles and hybrids vehicles. those vehicles represent a relatively small part of the fleet. the fleet turns over slowly. so it's the green power through my years. that's why these latest u. s. economic sanctions against russia may be symbolic, designed to hurt putin financially. but mostly politically, president biden is sending his vice president carmella harris to poland and romania this week to reinforce support for ukraine, but also to reassure nervous allies. fearful that russia could turn its aggression on them. next. kimberly held it al jazeera, the white house. i think that's clear that gas prices affect our economy. i drive a lot, i put many kilometers in and i do feel it. i didn't do that as a absurd 15 days ago. nobody could think about it. the problem is not the price. it will be to morrow, but how much it will cost in $15.00 days?
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yeah. i think that times are coming, but we will have to deal with it and make up of him. my purchasing power will decrease. i will have to choose between using the car or doing other things or will bring it, i guess in just a moment. but 1st, let's take a look. a closer look at washers roll in the energy industry. russia is a commodities power house. it produces more than 10 percent of the world oil and natural gas. and europe relies on it for a 3rd of it's gas, but sanctioning this sector would send energy prices surging even higher, affecting an already fragile world economy. with russia being a major global supplier, it could also mean more profit for russia not less. the u. s. and its allies have agreed to release 60000000 barrels of oil reserves to help offset any shortages. although the world consumes 100000000 barrels every day. and analysts say that no oil producing countries can replace rushes oil exports to europe. ah, let's bring in august. then joining us from washington,
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d. c is ben k hill, a senior fellow energy security and climate change program at the center for strategic and international studies from bern. cordelia map is an economist and see of the consulting firm, mayor resources and from moscow landed 7, chief editor of geo political dot. are you at a political analyst a warm welcome to you or ben? let's start from you about how the you get got itself into this mess. it relies upon russia what something like 27 percent of its oil and imports around 15 percent of its total consumption. why is then europe so dependent upon russian oil and could any of the supply replace it quickly? thanks to be with you today. this is partly just a matter of geography. its proximity. the continent is connected to russia by pipeline systems. we have the juice for pipeline, which is the main export pipeline for russia into your reaches lots of countries to
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both northern and southern, or we have a lot of seaborne exports to go to europe as well. so you're a critical export market, financial, stanford oil for russia. if you look at crude oil, specifically about 60 percent of russians, exports go to europe, but 35 percent asia, primarily china, and the rest of different places around the world. and so in terms of whether or not europe can diversify and find an alternative to russia, the answer is no. in the media turns just not possible. on the your can commission came out with an emergency plan yesterday, basically to try to do everything possible by next winter to reduce its dependence on russia for natural gas supplies. including building gas storage, trying to find alternative supplies when you are selling gee, and other supply sources and managing the demand side too. but it's really difficult. it's important. europe has a sense of urgency. it's moving fast, but the test will be due within a year. all right, cornelia, i my see nodding in agreement in terms of oil. what about countries like venezuela
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with its vast reserves? the u. s. has opened up diplomatic channels again with crackers recently or even iran negotiations. they're appearing to head towards a complete pollution over the that the nuclear deal. if sanctions against the wrong will, if to, to could those 2 countries, for instance, at least helped to plug the gap. a can't pluck the gap because what we're few take out. russia exports 8000000 barrels a day. that's 8 percent of global daily consumption. and so they can't. and you have seen that opec plus, you know, the opec countries and their 10 allies. which by the way, a lead by russia really can't, can't pump it fast enough and the spare capacity is really spare. it's really sparse. it's, it's, it's not bare except for saudi m. u a and the little bit of it. ok, so that's difficult. now let us look at add them then as willa, yes, obviously they can go and talk to venezuela,
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and the venezuelans may actually be receptive to talking to them because so far, when they were under sanctions from the u. s, the russians have been dep, only friends, but they're obviously worried that if money rise up in russia, what will happen to them, they need those direct payments. but better this at the national oil company is bo, fully on to invest it. and it's just, you know, it's no longer it used to be one of the shining lights in the oil industry. it's now a very much near the bottom as a player. so he can't just ramp it up like that. and iran, similarly, iran could bring in one point to 1300000 barrels a day. if the chase the p o a, the nuclear deal went through. they have a lot in storage, which they can release immediately to one point to 1300000 barrels a day of exports and they will take more time. but mind you the che cpos negotiated by the p fife, the permanent 5 of the un security council and germany p 5 past one. guess what?
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russia is? a member of the p 5 to work on opec slip in a bumper oil. what else can step in to a certain degree, but opec doesn't tough. as i said before, it doesn't have the spare capacity. let me give you an example. they have done, they have cut out 9700000 barrels a day on that of after that grim day in the april 2020 been w t i went negative for a day and death the we leased gradually 400000 barrels a day, month on month to month, but if i look at that, at this numbers for january, the day was supposed to pump did the, the 13 nations 430 at 400 bout incremental barrels. they only were able to pump a $160000.00 barrels now and then saudi can do more. russia was constrained and you look at libya, nigeria, they just, they just can't keep up. been the de facto leaders of saudi arabia,
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the u. e are for declined to arrange calls with president bible in recent weeks. let's, according to the wall street journal, citing you, russian, middle, east officials. what's good, what's going on there? i think the wrong i was under no moods do service for washington under missing political demands to try to use or whatever just more if we put that to last week, ok, close. had a meeting right after the war broke out, and the meeting lasted for all 13 minutes and then basically decided to continue to deal with the community i just mentioned, which is to add $400000.00 barrels a day into the market. and continue to been doing since last april. i think there were several reasons for this. first, you know, it's going to take awhile still from today to absorb the magnitude of the supply shock from russia. we still have a lot of questions about the physical disruption. how big it is. exactly and, but i also think that the issues around spirit capacity are real. you know, the, this printer just been so big. there's so much fear and panic,
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oil mark out that i think some of the states are concerned that if they add more production for a month or 2, not really to make a big difference. but i do think that the political pressure on us is going to intensify. and this is a serious supply chart. and opec stated role is to manage volatility in the market and prevent politics. you know, it feels like the market doesn't have anyone at the wheel, right? now, and the feels like saudi arabia, the way you and others are ignoring the demands of the consumers, not just the united states, but countries like china and india as well. so i think in the coming days, you know, lots of things are possible as possible. you have, you know, a revision of the cross terms and next month's meeting. you can see a unilateral move by saudi arabia a, but clearly they want to get some concessions from washington for they do this. ok, let's bring in later than in moscow. good to have you with us, let it. what does a u. s. and u. k. bad on, on russell oil. really mean for russia, it's economy, it's president. will it hurt either more for us?
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i know the program and the for united states and u. k. l, for example, the rope and you know the store to buy or not. so before construction, if i'm ready to deal with trying to provide more company for next year, we sell for a new contract 2nd of this year. and i think it's more appropriate much for the nickel level. so shoot them by united states when the faction in the fall. and now we, she definitely go of our community in venezuela is broken by american sanctions. and they can not provide moral oil to united states or something and of oral surveys option of both natural gas. and they've more dangerous for you . and they come on for. and for example,
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no price for g is more cheaper than before because of function. and it's good for developing the metrics for a moment or so for a moment i see more to a problem for us. it's so because of that oil section, ok, what if the e u was a follow the us and the u. k. lead and plan imports. of russian, oil and, and russian gas. i can see already that scalia's shaking had come back to you in a moment. but, but with that, is it, what would that worry moscow? i sure was that you were all got this more talk for europe and, you know, coming up to for an i don't know if you for, for russian gas and oil go council. if you're open, you know, i'm down to strong with the plan. so for office supplies, 6, not on those $31.00,
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but it's also oil production and it's some kind of logistic, it will be cheating, reaction in real deeply on europe around itself. so i think they will try to find out if in the future yes, the same time rational funds for, for new market in the asian or from china. james, back to some of more schools here for. and then you found your bill for russian golf and or, and maybe we'll do more cheaper to go this situation. but for now we see that's right. is for gas and oil growing up and it's generously impacted the united states suited in your community. i mean, in the community i just said that you were calling to make
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a phone call from you and it's like in russia, it's so very uterus mistake because you're off the same place and for some german, your friends with another unit. so it's where big difference will be more a problem for itself. ok, cornelia, tell me why then why won't the us be rather funny? the u. k. it's 2, it's 2 things here. you need to decide. do you need to divide between oil and gas? if you have royal, it will always find the market. and you thought you saw that at the beginning of last week when russian clark was had a hard time finding a market. dear chinese, unto indians, just waited until the discount was low enough and they bought that. so that will go . gas is more difficult. it does equal if we fi us infrastructure and them, our russian colleague was absolutely right. it's not a light switch. you know, if we want to get, let's say more l n g in most l n t on 25 year contract. and especially the middle
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east and the asian cargoes are promised on these than melick hills. are promised to china, japan and korea. if you talk to, some of generally says said tend to st, could get diverted to d today to europe in the u. s. similarly, they will have about 12000000 tons of new capacity of new energy coming on the market in about 5 years time. i think we need to heat houses in europe before the 5 years time cross, you need the infrastructure, you need the weakest. if occasion criminals, we don't have enough of them. and the infrastructure linking them into the pipeline system. so again, it's not the light switch, it really, it really takes time and again, oil is easier, but it's also not that easy because don't forget that refiners are tuned to certain grades. so if they really are made a note, we finally that's way dependent on the euro's grade, will have a hard time to substituting it. so it looks easy and i'm sure to the politician,
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it is easy. but to the guy in the industry, it's hellishly complex. and what are the political risks of panic? russian oil, gas for western leaders? does it threaten to split the west's currently fairly united response to russia's actions and in ukraine, nuclear comic research. huge. if you impose a full full sanctions on russian energy sports, that's a recipe for social interest is not possible for a marker to calmly washes out on a magnitude. and this is the reason why we haven't seen joint session. so even with, you know, sanctions on just the regional central bank person, financial institutions, other russian entities. we've already seen a big supply last. no, no, no, it's exactly how much is off by now, but it's a good that around 2530000 barrels a day of crude and products are already fine. today you want to direct sanctions.
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if you rent up to 8000000 barrels a day, all right, and exports, there's simply no way for the market to cope with the loss on that scale. and so the prices would shoot up be a severe don't economic activity. the market would panics. that's a recipe for demand struggling to be unmanageable. i think. so. i think they're really huge. downside risk of doing land. president putin is called sanctions. he's referred to sanctions as an act of war. to what extent do you think he would be prepared to perhaps preempt further western bands and just simply cut off supply anyway, i think the rough chart is the radio for grades in future is united states around noon on before many times we need to make a difference between different type of norm explain, except cetera. saw in ways the reason i assume that the russia, yes,
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can tool in full schools are factional and game tonight, the space in europe and union, and the to got on the all the supplies to the ground. truth is there will be some more writers, heroes and platform are actually become more infusion. but so now in the euro, few more us i see you know, any danger for. busy auction economics from the energy sector. clearly we were talking about the economic damage that a sustained high oil price could do this, the same, the best cure for high prices, a high price. if demand sell as consumers, just decide that it's too expensive than so with the price, but at what economic cost? well, as a huge economic costs and you know, obviously we'll see some demand destruction. but our economies are still fueled by oil and gas and might away coal. you know, if, if the germans let say, go off gas, they will need some cold. you need some bay slowed us to keep the lights on. so
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that's a huge cost. and you know, the cost goes beyond those countries. you saw the german and economy minister and deputy chancellor say, if we get off russian gas immediately, he fears core cohesion and the convent. the man all by topic is a green. he is no fan of fossil fuels and what's, what goes beyond that if we see hyperinflation, that's not good for the economy, global economy. and also don't forget who'd, because you, ukraine and, and russia make up about 30 percent of sort of the global food supply. the ukraine is 50 percent of the world food program and fuel sort of food supply. so you know, to the, that the developing countries, the sedans to somali us of this world will really feel that because they won't, they won't get the grain at, they won't, even if they get it, they won't be able to afford it, crossed the fertilize us gas is the direct input to fertilizers. let's take germany
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as an example, out of 3 major m suppliers of fertilizer to a russian. so we've really, really, very interconnected, been, i was, i was reading today that the biggest strategic gas storage reservoir in western europe is in germany. and that, that strategic reservoir is owned by a subdued subsidiary of gas from germany. in particular, of course, worried about its energy security. while prices may rise uncomfortably for u. s. consumer. so there's little chance of the lights going out in the u. s. i don't think the same could be said for, for, for many in western european straits. to what extent does germany have only itself to blame due to deregulation of his energy sector, allowing russian companies to hold or own significant stakes in german energy companies in germany is not alone. and that is it. now there's been some pretty important changes in european gas markets in recent years. i mean, the basically moved away from, you know,
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long term wind contracts towards more gas gas competition, more reliance on the spot market short term. and that worked pretty well for a while. and, you know, the market is essentially broken in the last 6 months, and in fact, these enormous ramos, and gas and electricity prices in your, you know, the dependence on russia is really hard to break. but there are some european policies. so we think of exacerbated the situation. one of the things that the international energy agency and europeans have noted us have been really need to have an all out effort from now until next winter to build up gas storage as much as possible to fill all those tanks. and it's going to be extremely expensive for them to do not get. so clients are scarce. me basically energy producers around the world are producing full tilt. and i think we mentioned earlier, you know, another country in europe hasn't energy and port terminal. those that do have re gas terminals for gas station terminals. they're not connected to all those markets . so all of them are going to try to refill gas as much as possible. you know,
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the can completely get around to kind of on russia to do not. we're still going to be dependent on gas from, but we'll do everything they can to build interconnections to increase gas storage . and i think they're really going to look accounts policies and try to figure out why this market in europe has done some a wire. and what they can do to build more resilience in the next year, landed, you think the president puts in is prepared to sit this out while the west potentially shoots itself in the, in the 4th economically and causes a huge economic damaged itself. well i think strickland for different type of sanctions, also our prime minister, mr. miss susan. all right, we're going to read about different, back sensual. so i assume more essential. so we'll be more dangerous for europe and union and the united states because rational, real,
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impose moral sections are we're talk about not only got fact, i'm also about the food july. the slide, korea are essentially about, for example, the spatial for ashley small. so florida from european union has also different types of sanctions. russia introducing against europe on upsets inside russia. i've got the fowls, et cetera. so yes, it's kind of for war war why i was, i mean, it's a joke. i assume it will be more as much for some europe on campus for osh. ok the i'm afraid we're going to have to leave it many. thanks indeed to you all for discussing that with us here today. then k hill in washington putting my up in band and in moscow. let it 7
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as always, thank you for watching. don't forget, you can see the program again at any time just by going to the website of al jazeera dot com for further discussion around this topic, join us on facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can join the conversation on twitter handle at a j insights story from me. adrian, again, a whole scene here and thanks for watching. will see the news. when you break it all started early, i was around 5 am very large explosions. people waking up to walk, but never expected men. well, when people need to be heard and the story told, i find my art playing the role of bringing our differences together with exclusive interviews and in depth reports. this is emma, this is tyler. al jazeera has teens on the ground to bring you more award winning
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biggest threat international peace and security? we listen, we are focusing so much on the humanitarian crisis that we forget the long term development we meet with global news makers. i'm talk about the store respect matter on al jazeera. ah, this is al jazeera. ah, hello, i'm not matheson, and this is the news that live from dill, coming up in the next 60 minutes. russia bolton's a maternity hospital in the city of mario pulled several children i believe, to be trapped in the rubble de 14 of the ukraine war despite efforts to.

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