forward is to overcome the country's painful past. what's the worst was? i thought that the point was to lay down the weapons and be able to participate in politics. they should welcome my presence as much as we welcome. there's my wishes that we be partners to show columbia and the world that despite our differences, we can work towards consensus to build a better country. ah, many believe parks party lacks the support to survive past the selections. but after so much pain, it's a relief that these differences are playing out at the ballot box and not on a battlefield allegory, allison, the impurity al jazeera, will gotta put on another. ah, this is our desert, easier. top stories, russian forces is slowly advancing on ukraine's capital. keith confine explosions. were heard in the early hours of the morning, and then she convoy has taken up positions surrounding the city steadfast and has

the latest from keith. a fierce battle for keith is ongoing. we could hear artillery fire throughout the night, specially coming from the north, west and north east of the city. we know that this large column of tanks that were sir, stole there for a week or so, or for a couple of days. 60 kilometers long as dispersed in the neighborhoods in the surroundings offered key. if right now, this happy fighting going on to ukrainian army is at its full defense. and also at the same time, we see that the russian forces are coming closer to the south or through the west route around the city. but basically there's a sense that they're trying to encircle the capital lay a sort of siege here, or the number of refugees from ukraine has the past 2500000 putting pressure on eastern european nations or so it says refugees now make up 10 percent

a punish capital. population accommodation is running out. russian soldiers have detained the mayor of melli topo city in the southeast. the cranium government released this security camera footage, which it says shows the abduction of even the federals of the top of the screen. rather than it says, 10 russian soldiers entered mellot opal's crisis center. put a bag over the mayor's head and led him away. the u. s. as a keys rush of using a un security council meeting to spread lies and disinformation, russia told the council of the united states was supporting biological weapon programs in ukraine. the u. s. as g 7 allies working to downgrade russia trading stages to further isolated economy. washington, also banning wash and sea food, alcohol and diamonds. ok. as you headlines inside stories next. oh, use unity. birds are at risk of extinction. even in vicious plan to rid the nation

. if some friendly favor, one or one is the best to go on out of there the most severe sanctions ever imposed on a single country. russia says they amount to a declaration of war as the west expands its measures will let him in putting be forced to stop his war on ukraine and have sanctions worked in the past. this is inside school. ah hello, welcome to the program and has them seek. it's been more than 2 weeks since russia launched its invasion of ukraine. e leaders have been meeting in france to talk about more ways to help you crane and further punish russia. but that hasn't stopped the kremlin from hitting back. moscow has now imposed an exports ban on

a string of products until the end of this year. about $48.00 countries will be affected, including the u. s. and those in the e. u. russia is already facing the most severe set of western sanctions ever imposed on a single country. they target a variety of sectors, including oil banking, aviation, and people close to president putin. this is a defining moment for europe, and it is a moment where we see that puddings war is also a question of the resilience of democracy. we will, we think energy we have to get rid of the dependency of russian fossil fuels. and for that we need match the massive investment in renewables. this is also a strategic investment in our security and our independence. our russian president, vladimir putin says he's country will emerge stronger and more independent from western sanctions, which he said were inevitable for soon and only and the pressure of sanctions has

always existed. of course today it is of a more complicated nature and is posing certain questions, problems and difficulties on the but we will overcome them now just like we have overcome problems and previous years at the end of the day, all of this will lead to the increase of our independence autonomy and sovereignty . let's take a closer look at the growing number of international companies that have pulled out of russia, mcdonalds, coca cola, and starbucks are among the latest corporations. suspending operations after rushes, invasion of ukraine, germany's volkswagen and japan's toyota. both hold to production in russia indefinitely. and several tech firms have closed up shop, including software companies, microsoft and s a p. fashion brands h and m and tsar, i have also joined the corporate exodus. ah, well, let's bring in our guess now, joining us from london, chris,

we thought chief executive officer at macro advisory, a strategic consultancy focused on russia and eurasia in all low glen diesel professor of international relations at the university of south eastern norway and also in london. tom burgess, author of the sunday times bestselling book clip toppia, how dirty money is conquering the world. could have you with this gentleman. could we for let me start with you. we're all these sanctions as they currently stand working and they're starting to have an impact for sure. let me just say up front does that. the sanctions are very severe, are not likely to lead to a financial collapse or, or even an economic collapse as maybe we've seen previously. and that's because russia has been living under a sanctions regime regime, which has been typing ever since 2014. so the economy to some extent has built in like some resilience. it's a sanctions but, but not, of course,

to the extent we're seeing. so we are starting to see some companies laying off stuff because they cannot get spare parts because of the trade embargo. we're starting to see, of course, the high profile brands like kia, mcdonalds, and others, at least temporarily closing their business and russia, which is leading to layoffs, and then the chart of goods. so we're starting to see this creeping impact on, on the economy. but as i say in terms of financial stability are kind of overall macro economic stability. that's not yet at risk, and won't be so long as russia's could, is able to continue exports in key products such as gas or industrial areas, and is able to be paid for it. so you know, in that sense, no collapse, but clearly a deteriorating situation. chris, tom budget, what's your take on how effectively sanctions or what, what the overall effect of them is? what do we have to break them into 2 parts of the sectoral sections,

which is essentially just sort of economic attack. reducing puts, as a person, exports like oil and gas, trading ball goes kind of things. chris talked about a moment ago and then the target functions, which are sort of subtler and hard. it's read in a way. these are obviously the attacks on the personal wealth of those who have prospects on the fusions cuts, obviously for many years. and they are being counted as a way to put pressure on him. i would offer an, an a no to skepticism but those as well. i would say the 2 categories of all the galks, the 1990s, all the galks who am got written to privatization and then will have their wings clipped rather by preaching and were made dependent on him but, but, but maintain relationships with him. they, i think i've limited influence on his decision making and then there's a kind of putin error oligarchy who and a lot of him have like him passed in the k g, b. and. and we're in some cases plucked from obscurity and created by peach. and

they have a much greater personal dependency on him and payroll. so sort of barons of state companies, generally, oil gas pipelines, et cetera, as opposed to private ones. but if the aim of the sanctions is to ultimately to persuade the the, the, the, the richest beneficiaries of rushes clipped soccer see that they need a new boss at the top. because putin's policies are proving to ruinous for their wealth. you've got a question that logic as well because so many of them are so bound up with him. typically my experience of covering cups, of course, is all of the world when, when the big man goes down, those close to him go down with him. she go to one to, to what extent that they would c as in their interest to try to remove to, to, at any stage. yeah. i mean, we can certainly talk more about that a little bit later. this is, this is related to britain's decision, isn't it? to put several rationale galks on their sanctions list because many of them have,

have a lot of their money in, in, in u. k. banks. so yeah, we'll, we'll talk a little bit more of that in, in a moment. but i want to turn to glen these in and get his take on, on the sanctions over all the history of sanctions. as far as having the desired effect of getting the people that they are targeting to, to change their position or maybe get them to back down is, is not a great one. is it, it's, it's check it at best you expect this to be any difference? i will, this is a problem with sanctions. they're put in place because they still have to do something and it's either economics pressure or military pressure sometimes you know, do something doesn't necessarily mean anything achieved when they, whether or not the sanctions are working successful. it really depends what, what, what we consider the purpose of the sanctions to be weak in the russia, russian economy, as the sped teacher there. and then i was, the sanctions are working. it, it's a couple russia from the european economist. yes, this is also working. however,

one would also find 2014. russia is working towards reorienting economy from the west, mainly china. and it's a long attendance by the process. but typically when we talk about sanctions, the purpose is to make or change your policy. so we're influencing the cost benefit analysis connections. but in order to extend to sanctions, will be effective, really have to say, well, what, what russia motivation and i think ultimately get it wrong. when we get some pressure from the media, who they just woke up one day in about mood decided to focus on the territory. i think it's important to see the russian perspective. after nato expansion for 30 years. russia said this is a security where they made a very clear that you can't absorption into you made or get some extra special. so in other words, this is

a red line and they will effectively risk everything for this is all or nothing. it's little bit like a united states were willing to literate to buy in order to get the soviet out. so i think it's important understand it's because it processes this where if you want or getting away from the economy, what would happen if russia would go back south today with the mood we have in the west made it would work, moves directly with weapons and everything else into ukraine, fairly quickly and again, this is something that i can do. so i think there are russians are willing, some sort of an enormous amounts of economic pain and they're not going to back down because again, for the next, essentially it's a red light. so i don't see any future for the sanctions. i think i want to change, you would have to talk about some security arrangements with ross's ok, chris, we've put in

a said that russia strong enough to withstand sanctions and this will end up hurting the west in the form of higher food and energy prices is he right, well, we cannot receive the price of so commodities keep launch these energy, but also other commodities that russia's imports. flyer, for example, reach another soft agriculture products. all of these prices are rising. so it is putting in stationary pressure on the global economy and therefore that will affect monetary policy. policies will affect the global economy. so he's right in that respect, what to what extent russia can withstand the pain on how long can we send to pay? very is, is an open question. russia, as earlier, has made a lot of preparations to be more resilience against sanctions. for example, if we go back to 2013, russia was entirely dependent on oil price needed $115.00

a year to balance its budget. this year is be less than 50 feet equal back then russia imported 50 percent of its food consumption, mostly from europe or from the west. no, russia is completely self sufficient, so there's no risk of any short just certainly basic items on the shelves. and at the start of this year, russia had built up substantial financial award just $630000000000.00 to fix the highest in the world. and we also know that the central bank has greatly dispersed those reserves. so even though the central bank has no sanctions and reserves held in western banks or sanction countries, they can access, but a lot of reserves to be moved to china and moved elsewhere where they can access them. so in that sense, fusion is right and saying to russia can withstand a lot of pain because he has made the economy about more millions banking system, etc. is a lot stronger than used to be. but the critical factor,

though to repeat is so long as russia is able to exports its key commodities, such as gas and other materials and be paid for them. so long as there are some banks remaining in the system. then russia is earning by our estimates, at least $30000000000.00 current account surplus every month because in ports of collapse. so the current account surplus is done up. and that's a substantial financial lifeline. which means that the government can continue to fund employment subsidies maintain the best to get nomic stability, some social programs, it cetera, pensions, etc. and that means this situation in russia not ideal start growing. it doesn't close, but there really is no danger of an economic or financial collapse. and that probably means that social pressures won't be that much either. somebody is going back to the issue around the oligarchs and going off to the russian, all the golf, particularly those, as you said, who are, who are very close to, to put in the,

the later generation. and the thinking here is, as you were saying, is that the sanctions will somehow it's hope to put the squeeze on them because they've, they've hit their wagon to preach and up to now. and they might think about turning against him. but could they even whether this financially, because this is coming more than 2 weeks into this war. now there's been criticism of the british government. they've acted too slow. would they have had time then to to kind of move their money elsewhere so that no one no one can touch it. i mean is it. ringback too little, too late at this point. yeah, i mean, i just have to quickly check issue with the day that that so go ahead of defensive what this is, a kind of, i have to tell you that this is a defensive war. i mean, the, let's, let's, let's be clear about what, what the russian regime is. it's a regime of thieves, putin, as soon as he came back to petersburg, at the end of the cold war, began enriching himself through corruption. and he's just massively gone on

magnifying that process of an apple bomb privately described in this. he's just the 1st among a group of 1000000000 as the one who controls the secret police. that's the engine of the current regime is corruption. it's a clip soccer say it runs on corruption. now, that mean that it requires extraordinary feats propaganda to, to maintain control. part of the propaganda has been discussed, stories about the knots, to cation and the militarization of ukraine. and this is what's been used as a false pretext, the invasion. now, it's, it follows from that that, that motivation of patient, those rand, him, ah, in many, some just material or about their own access to wealth and the security that, that brings the targeting that wealth is important. as you say though, the way the west has gone about it, the u. k, but also europe and the u. s. has been pretty sloppy, especially in the u. k. the enormous delay and imposing sanctions when they are

obviously coming leads to a lot of anecdotal accounts of yeah, money being spirited away before names. right. to the french list. further that the you case record of enforcing functions is ups and pitiful. it remains the case that the u. k. like the rest, the world continues to allow this insane idea of financial secrecy, which becomes so widespread. we become accustomed to it, but you can, if you're rich enough, participate in a democratic free market economy in disguise. behind the front company. so you put a few names on the list and you may be cause trouble for chelsea and grab a few yards. but we don't know what the rustic lips of christie's ready do with its wealth because we allow them to move it around in secret. the final to make an it picks up on something that was raised earlier is the, is the, is the prospect that this could backfire by accelerating. what i called in my book that the rise of crap tokyo, an alliance is trapped across by pushing the russian crept across the elite, but also the economy more generally,

into alliances with other ultra corrupt states. china, venezuela, around they all wear different kind of ideological masks, but simply they're all the political systems role engines for the enrichment of the powerful and the more we use sanctions, donald trump, is an incredibly liberally, the more use them. the bigger the club of outcasts get and the more that club of outcast band together. and if you throw everyone out, then sanctions on cell similar complaints because there's no turn if economy that people can operate. let's talk a bit more about that. the potential economic blowback on this is a little more widely glen deason. is there a real danger that these sanctions will end up hurting too many people to the ordinary people in the west, in the form of inflation, higher energy prices, which will, will already seen now? yeah. energy production. i think all of this are in this area. so you're going to be much higher, prized by then energy, very interesting area because the energy price goes up and everything else has to

go up. as i think it's going to be very hard to control when that is why you're being something very cautious and to follow the americans live on this to do this very strict sanctions which register with russia. and i think there's also other problems that are coming down the road because as well as the previous mentioned not one of the problems with sanctions is obviously if they're too harsh and dearest are too long run. your punishing thing is to live without you a they find alternatives and i think there's too many countries being being functions from china, russia, iran. i think a lot of these companies, i mean, something not just low and economic infrastructure which they already are. they are seeking to cut off from the west, their technology industry, asportation core, their banks, that us dollar switch. i mean,

they created all of it and of course they still have a lot of work to be done. but this is obviously the trends. so you can only use the facts as far as the law beyond the how the function rickland russia will. you also have to keep in mind that china and other countries are also watching as well, because it's becoming a case. and what might happen to them in the future. so if you're sitting and doing that, would you want to be ex, drugs to be having dependence on the dollar, you know, using switched in your real estate using american technologies. banks certainly are not making preparation to cut off from america to reduce your extent to reduce your own ability. and so this is the situation we're in with the success of sanctions. any economic dependence become effective on the weaponized, my and others there so so with,

with the harshness of the sanctions. i don't think it's been probably thought how this could play out. also, just on the final point, i was russia going to respond again, sanctioning the russian central. thank you. this is very extreme stuff. now we can brush my stuff to see more with national lives, certain assets, oil and gas deliveries. and it's been focus on asia again and withdrawal patterns on businesses and simply take over the companies that are leaving. i'm not sure if it's possible with me to save the workplaces and make wrong the final, the course from the west side as future lives with the away from the countries. yeah, let's put that to, to chris we for, i mean it, glen these and brings up a point that russia has a weapons of its own economically and can respond in kind. i mean, how, how damaging could that be for the countries that are, that are, that are targeting russian?

yeah, of course, this is if this happened, you will be enormously damaging the global economy because you have to look at a map and then see that russia is the major kind of commodities fire for the world . not just oil and gas, but wheat, ukraine, and russia, the 2 biggest producers of reach and ukraine exports, and of course disrupt us. but also call the co palladium and all sorts of material . so if russia, if those experts from russia to south infinity, global economic impact would be very severe and we'd love recession. but it's important to bear in mind that, you know, at least as it stands right now, president putin and other people around them continue to say, says russia will continue to honor on export contracts. now, of course, what they're saying is that particular to europe. if europe continues to buy russian gas as part of the contract and the volumes and the pricing in russia will continue to supply. and for example, every gas from every day sends and updates that is, you know,

sending gas through all the various routes, including across ukraine every day as per the contract. and this is the same and the soviet union, there was never a supply disruption. so i think that, you know, essentially what russia is saying that provides you keep paying us and the routes for which we can be paid, such as some banks in the system, then we will keep supplying. but they clearly never losing opportunity to remind the rest of the world just dependence. the global economy is on russian commodities . talking about the question rationalization. that is important also because when you talk about companies like psycho coca cola or, or other brands, they're essentially russian companies. they employ russian people. and this source, their products, mostly in russia, ikea and a few others are different. that's why i keep close quite quickly because it could not import flat,

richard cetera. but in the case of mcdonalds and other companies that are sourcing their materials inside the country, are essentially russian companies in terms of employment and paying taxes. then what the rest of government is saying is that they want those companies to stay. they prefer to stay, and actually they're offering incentives for companies to stay even recognizing that some companies are under global consumer or stakeholder pressure to temporarily close. they are, they're accepting that they're acknowledging that, but they still want to them to stay. but if they choose to go, if companies say we're not exiting russia, we're not coming back. then the russian governance says that their business is could be nationalized because they want to protect us. jobs are the acids could be confiscated and sold elsewhere. and they're just very quickly aligned or that we have in china already saying that their big companies are now actively looking at acid acquisition opportunities,

particularly in strategic sectors such as energy or materials. they will be came by or for any western assets to become available. and russia will accommodate that. all right, just sending back then to to tom burgess, who is on what's probably going to be the last word on this coming back to the, to the all the galks. is there a kind of, if you look at the optics of this, is there a sort of messaging problem that the west has with with ukrainians in the, you know, what's, what's going off there? a few russian billionaires going to do for the millions of ukrainians who are suffering right now that, that you know, that they've got enough money to whether they so what kind of, i mean if you think you think there's, there's a messaging issue there in terms of showing ukraine that the west is fully behind them. yeah, actually, i think it goes much further than that. i think can you read the, the, the statement that the u. k. in other western governments have made to accompany the sanctions decision to justify why eagle set, you know, on a data pasco,

and you room and remove it. so whoever is going on this list and who's very little information as far as i can see in any of those that we didn't know the week months ago, a year ago that we didn't know in some cases. but quin putin murdered lit financial on the streets of london or more pointedly. we didn't know when christian annex crimea in 2014, but up until now our decision is essentially been you know, what, we would rather keep the money. and i think there is a mismatch and all right, we're doing now and what could, what you couldn't, you might feel they could demand of us on 40 that's going to have to be the last word we're out of time. thank you. 2 or 3 of you, chris, we for claire deason and tom burgess. thanks so much for being on inside toy. and thank you. as always watching, remember, you can see this program going any time. just go to our website, gina, dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook, doc. com, forward slash

a j inside stored. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle. there is as a inside toys and we have a secret and the entire team here, bye for now. the in the early hours of the morning, these palestinian families are being forced to leave their homes and belongings. these already military sometimes uses this area in the north of you occupied with the bank as a training ground explosions like these often break the piece here. i feel for the children they get scared and i tried to calm them down there, but we're scared to. these really are me told them just either that it takes measures to protect civilians during back the sizes. what is really, officers previously said that trainings are used to push palestinians out 48 families once lived in this village called zeek. now,

there are only 20 people here, say they have nowhere else to go. so they have to stay out until they're allowed to return to their home after midnight. and the military drill will continue for 3 days. which means they'll have to go through this again, twice this week. oh, stories of life, ah, and inspiration, a series of short documentaries from around the world that celebrate the human spirit against the odds. ah, outages era selects palestinians ah,

knowledge is here with every oh a 2. ready oh, raid sirens blair across multiple ukrainian cities as russian military units moved closer to the capital. keith ah.