to move forward is to overcome the countries painful past, or to personally thought that the point was to lay down the weapons and be able to participate in politics. they should welcome my presence as much as we welcome. there's my wishes that we be partners to show columbia and the world that despite our differences, we can work towards consensus to build a better country. ah, many believe parks party lacks the support to survive past the selections. but after so much pain, it's a relief. ah, this is al jazeera, these you top stories. russian forces are slowly advancing on ukraine's capital. keith gum fine explosions. were heard in the early hours of the day. and when she convoys taking up positions surrounding the city, staffing has moved from keith. a fierce battle for key if it's ongoing. we could hear artillery fire throughout the night, specially coming from the north,

west and a north east of the city. we know that this large column of thanks that was stalled there for a week or so, or for a couple of days. 60 kilometers long as dispersed in the neighborhoods in the surroundings offered key. if right now, this happy fighting going on to ukrainian army is at its full defense. and also at the same time, we see that the russian forces are coming closer to the south through the west route, around the city. but basically there's a sense that they are trying to encircle the capital lay a sort of siege here. the number of refugees from ukraine has the past 2500000 putting pressure on eastern european nations. also is mayor says that refugees now make up 10 percent the punish capitals population. and a combination is running out. russian soldiers have detained the mayor of multiple

a city. in the south east, the ukrainian government released the security camera footage, which it says shows the abduction of even federal the top of the screen. it says 10 russian soldiers entered many topples crisis center. put a bag over the mayor's head and led him away. the u. s. has the keys russia using a un security council meeting to spread lies and disinformation russia told the council, the united states was supporting biological weapons programs in ukraine. the u. s. and his g 7 allies, a working to downgrade rushes, trading status to further isolate it's economy washington's. all so banning russian seafood, alcohol and diamonds. okay, those are you headlines. catch the cost. next cold response. nato long plan to military optic exercise the long distance. the cold war has taken on new significance as the war rages in ukraine de without, as they are for the latest development. as 35000 troops from 28 nato countries

demonstrate their abilities in a region already edge. ah, hello, i'm adrian finnegan. this is counting the coastal al jazeera, you look at the world of business and economics this week. the u. s. and u. k. ban russian oil of the european union announce plans to drastically shrink its reliance on gas from russia. will high prices undermine global energy security, high fuel costs and long the roots, the bypass russian air space house sanctions against moscow. a battering the global aviation industry with ticket prices and freight rates poised to go up. an sri lanka reels from food shortages and power cuts as it struggles to repay its foreign

debt and pay for imports. is the country on the verge of defaulting on its debt. ah, it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas of the 2nd largest oil exporter energy is russia's biggest source of income. but now u. s. president joe biden has imposed a ban on russian oil and gas in response to the invasion of ukraine. the u. k. says that it will phase out russian oil by the end of the year, while the european union is aiming to cut gas in ports by 2 thirds this. yep. now the move will wasn't inflation and push up fuel prices at washing to this scrambling to find alternative suppliers. al jazeera is priyanka groups are reports a me, jess, collation of us economic sanctions against russia for its invasion of ukraine. you, especially joe biden, is going after president vladimir potent mos lucrative industry. we're banning all

in ports of russian oil and gas in energy. that means russian oil no longer be accessible. us porch in the american people were deal another powerful blow to put information by to acknowledge the latest sanctions could push up us gas prices. consumers are already paying on average more than $4.00 a gallon up from $2.77 just a year ago, due to high inflation. as economy recovers from the pandemic. but it's europe that will feel the effect of moving away from russian energy more acutely than the us. the european union imports 27 percent of its oil and 40 percent of its gas from russia. the block plans to cut its dependency or rush and gas by 2 thirds this year, todd todd. but it's possible if we're willing to go further and faster than we've done before. but experts say disposition will mean difficult

compromises. they'll have to be additional use of nuclear, which is fuzzy phase out in certain countries, though i'd be more coal use, which won't help climate goals. the u. s. a seeking to persuade opec members to ramp up output among them. only saudi arabia, the united arab emirates and quail, half spare capacity. and washington is also turning to countries. it has shunned and imposed sanctions on it's making overtures to venezuela and attempting to see a nuclear deal with iran that could bring more oil into the market. priyanka gupta for counting the cost. joining us now from london, toby whittington lead economist at oxford economic study, great to have you with us on not counting the cost is this ban on a russian imports of oil in it into the u. s. largely symbolic. what is it that the

u. s. use is something like 8 percent of russian oil. is that correct? yeah, that's, that's right. i mean, i think you're up to write it as a logic symbolic moves. and, you know, obviously us demand a u. s. usage of russian oil is fairly limited and i think substituting out to, to alternative suppliers, i think probably within the north american market would be possible. there may be some sort of frictional cost in the, in the process of doing that. but those, those would be so temporary and, and point moderate. and so we wouldn't expect too much of a, a price shock from this movement in terms of oil is already one that who could plug the gap, the u. s. appears to be making attempts to repair relations with venezuela, which of course has as huge oil stocks, but its infrastructure isn't, isn't it any fit shape at the moment? and of course the, the round nuclear deal talks could come to some sort of fruition and sanctions might be lifted on iran. could venezuela at iraq, perhaps help offset the shock?

i think those are both too key key markets and certainly given the situation we're in there is an impetus now to try to bring those to countries back into the the global oil market. discussions are ongoing. as you say, i think venezuela's oil infrastructure is in a slightly poorer state than what it is in iran. i think i estimates put them around about 700000 barrels a day that they could start exporting or iran is a bit higher referral. about $1300000.00 barrels a day that they could put out by the end of the year and with potential to stop it even further. and so, so those are important markets, but i think the key sort of produces are as ever the, the major opec produces a saudi arabia and, and the you a now as well. ok. and he took about the europe looking to, to win itself off of russian gas when we're not talking about oil here. and perhaps it's plans being a little overly optimistic at the moment. who would fill the gap? there? would it be countries like kata, australia, i mean,

you're looking at shipping gas from the other side of the world to, to europe. i cannot be done yet. that the 3 major sort of energy exports is of the u. s. cats are in australia. i think australia is pretty out of the picture. they overwhelmingly supply the australian market. so that the asian market, and of course, getting gas from, from shipping gas from australia to europe is a huge endeavor. i think it would come primary from the us and, and cattle. ah, it's not entirely clear that's enough. export capacity exists at the moment. so as part of the planet they want to withdraw reduced dependents on russian gas by 2 thirds within 2022. so that's $91.00 centrally to, to do it. and half of that 2 3rd saving is going to come from extra ellen, g imports at which, which roughly equates out about a 60 to 70 percent increase in, in ports of l n. j. i think that's highly optimistic given given current export

capacities and also a you input capacity is a valid g. i think if they could reduce dependence by maybe a 3rd, that would be very good. i think 2 thirds is it's probably pushing it too far, really. and is this, i mean, this is all about sanctioning russia, it's, it's, it's a financial penalty for rush rates. it's aimed at causing he can only com to, to russia. ultimately though, is, is russia still going to be able to sell its oil and gas? will there be buyers out there? will it be able to sell, so sell at market price? is it really going to hurt washer? well, i think i got a bill in the long run. i think, you know, if russia loses access to western markets is most access us. it was only, is access to to europe is europe seems to be implying that, you know, that will, will have an impact on russian, on demand for russian oil, which should reduce the price that they can pay. i mean that they're going to be able to sell to other countries,

china and asian countries and so on. but that sort of reduced number of buyers will necessarily, i think, reduce the amount of price they can pay. i think that's true, also gas as europe 6th, when itself off your russian gas rusher is in the process of transiting to the china building. you pipeline infrastructure to supply gas from, from the field down and down to china. but that's a massive interest. an effort that take some time to, to come on line. and also china will be in quite a strong bargaining position, of course. and, you know, with russia not having many other customers, china will, will be able to, to leverage that position to negotiate themselves. a better deal, so yeah, in some way i think it rushes, the price that they can achieve for their and jack sports will, will undoubtably go down. toby, it's been great to talk to you on counting the cost money. thanks again for being with us. thank you. ah,

the surgeon oil prices as push the cost of global jet fuel to a 14 year high airlines and travelers are facing steep fair increases just as air travel was beginning to recover after cove at 19 or adding to the burden of high prices. are the circuitous flight paths needed to avoid washing airspace right now? the biggest impact is on flights between europe and asia destinations like japan, south korea, and china. longer flight times lead to higher staff costs, limited cargo carrying ability, and they raise maintenance costs. and russian airlines have also been hit by the air space bands. they won't be able to access parts and services that they'd sourced from a broad to discuss all of this. joining us from london, peter morris, chief economist at the asian consultancy ascend by syria. peter, good to have you with us on counting the cost, just as airlines were beginning to spot. a patch of clear sky is after the horrible

time they've been through with the pandemic here we have more turbulence caused by higher oil prices. i just how bad an impact is this going to have are already suffering aviation sector? well, it's yes, another negative. i mean, if, if you look at this proportion of globalization that is linked directly to russia, it's of the order of 6 percent or so what she can say no could be managed without. but on the other hand, what you're talking about yet, another negative factor, and we haven't even got to the level of the increase in fuel prices appears to have been linked to this whole invasion. so what will higher oil prices, higher fuel prices mean for the likes of you and i, the people who use the airlines is that going to lead to higher ticket prices for us? it's never going to lead to higher ticket prices, but there will be a can differential in near effect the when you're traveling. for example, within europe,

the proportion of the ticket let's feel is lower. whereas when you're traveling to australia, for example, it's a much higher proportion. so it will mean that shawl is impacted less than long haul travel. that's more than 3 hours. not only is, is fuel going to cost more, but airlines are going to have to use more of it to fly around russian air space, a vast part of the globe that they now have to avoid. i think there's 2 fact to say 1st, yes, it will increase flight times by between one and 4 hours between europe and asia. and on the other hand, if you look at the level of closure on international services, it's taking place in japan and, and china, the moment that actually that traffic is very badly hit anyway. but again, this is yes, another negative that added in. i'm one thing it does mean is that the, the airlines that have new fleets, the term more fuel efficient saving,

perhaps 20 percent of fuel on journeys will actually have a competitive benefit compared with others. they'll still be suffering in paying the high cost, but they will have something of a competitive advantage. what does the, the ban on, on, russian aircraft flying into european space, for example. what does that mean for russia's aviation sector? well, it's been very badly hit as, as symbolized by the airflow withdrawing services internationally from the 8th of march. so as a consequence, they're not flying for fear that the planes could be intended or something like $500.00 aircraft, according to our databases that are least into russian entities from international leasing companies. and those effectively, the lease is be terminated by the 28th of march. so that means that any aircraft that sent flying outside can be impacted. and also the under international law,

the airlines are supposed to be handing those aircraft back. if they don't have them back, because they simply can't at the moment due to the circumstance, what does that mean for the international leasing companies? they're going to lose money, of course, because these, these aircraft are sitting on the ground in russia. they think they can't get to them. it is a major challenge, one way or another. and the thing is we can only look at the unfolding impact of the sanctions and so on. but it is clearly one of the major impacts that will be seen in russia among russian air. travelers realizing you can't fly as easily or as cheaply she did before. and it will mean that, for example, the middle east narrow lines who do fly to russia will actually have a significant captive market. we lost a lot of airlines due to the pandemic. it just wasn't survivable for,

for many of the smaller airlines. all those running on on very tight operational budgets with this continuing agony now with the air space restrictions around russia with the increasing fuel prices. do you think that we'd like to see other airlines going on? but it's going to increase suppression? ultimately, it's really what the impact on individual countries g d p is because it's, it's g d p and the ability of people to buy tickets effectively that drives the airline business forward. and one of the concerns is the impact in terms of g d. p growth will actually reduce aviation growth as well. but none of these things are posted. this is the basic point all looking at a little bit. please get them over to say the least better. but anyway, thank you really appreciate you outlining all of that for us. peter morris, that a lot of now, food shortages,

power cuts and long lines for expensive fuel sri lanka is facing its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948 international rating agencies. a warning that it's on the verge of defaulting on its debts. but the government has refused to seek an iron f bailout and insist that it can handle the crisis on its own. al jazeera manella, fernandez reports from colombo spending hours in queues has become known across she lanka, starting with food, rice, sugar and mid powder. now it's cooking gas and diesel that are asia supply. that of all, that it all a similar day. i haven't eaten from the morning and i can't even go drink some water on, i would lose my place. otherwise meant that avoiding me that nothing after spending so many hours in cues, we can only run about 2 and a half days. we can't keep doing this. so we appeal for this problem to be sold. the shortages are a result of the government, not having enough dollars to pay for impulse. this is because it's foreign.

earnings and reserves have been rapidly declining since 2019 huge debt repayment of ethan into a big chunk of available resources. the crisis has affected all sectors, including public transport. operator said they are struggling to survive from day to day after that, la are on the one hand, there's no electricity. they cut power for 7 and a half hours. the diesel stocks i come up with half is given for power generation a lot. it's only half the stock that's used for everything else. after months of coping, people protesting yet and chill out note of colombo fishermen complaint they don't have fuel for their boats mid afternoon. my husband can't go to see there's no diesel. i hope those responsible is struck by lightning in colombo, silent protests. enough is enough, says one bene, stop ruining my country, reads another month of skyrocketing prices and shortages of food, medicine,

cooking gas and fuel have made sri lankan, frustrated and angry. to make matters worse, they have suffered through the worse pol got to be impose in more than 25 years. 7 and a half hour interruptions, a day, a causing chaos. among all segments of the population, sri lanka, public utilities regulated says it has been pushing to solve the power crisis. these, these has become a national issue to necessarily yeah. the attention has not been paid by the political hierarchy been than now, and the authorities. so we have been fighting in all of, with almost everyone to sort out this issue. increasing prices and shortages are not unique to shanker but people here say their leaders of aggravated the situation through years of corruption and mismanagement. minute fernandez, urges era. colombo was like, has usable foreign currency reserves are plunged below $1000000000.00. now the rising cost of oil imports is shrinking,

that even further leaving it vulnerable to a debt default. the tourism sector, a major foreign exchange. other was battered by the east to attacks of 2019, and of course the corona virus pandemic. and now 2 countries vital to shall, anchors tourism market are at war. russia and ukraine had been the 1st and 3rd largest source of visitors this year of fail drive to become the world's 1st 100 percent organic farming nation hurt. food security shall anchor was forced to import rice. the t crop. the nation's top export was devastated. sure, lincoln, i want china, a major lender to restructure its debt and its negotiating a $1000000000.00 relief package from china as geopolitical rival, india. let's talk all of this through now with the shall, the mel in colombo. he's an economist and research director at verity research. he served as economic advisor to sort anchors, finance ministry 42017220. 19 dash are great to have you with us. is cheryl anchor

on the verge of defaulting on its debt? so to lanka is to see a very challenge situation on its a foreign exchange and reserve for the position right now. so it usable reserves that excluding the $1500000.00 chinese, you ensemble amounted to just $734000000.00 at the end of february. that you know, that you put coverage around 2 and a half weeks. now in the month of february and march to lanka, had liabilities maturing, amounting to $1800000000.00. so the, the gap between usable reserves and maturity liabilities is clearly betty betty. hi and knocking sri lanka favor. now there was a deferment of $900000000.00 of su payment issue engineering, union payment that was due to be paid earlier this week that deferred by 2 months. so that does provide a little bit of a levy for the next few weeks. but overall,

to the very challenging, challenging situation on its external external debt. and it's one of the reserves and the government says that it can manage this, this situation on its own without resorting to help from the i m f is not a wise strategy. do you think so i would think the most prudent auction now is to enter into negotiations, but it, but it's pretty does. because due to restructuring, it's extended to restructure in a preemptive manner. and such a restructuring program would ideally be underpinned and supported by you and i am if agreement and agreement that situation would be able to unlock some options of big bridge financing that helps reduce cost to build up reserves in being 30 bucks . it goes through a debt restructuring process. now, even if somehow we don't case able to meet, it's maturing that liabilities by scraping together some swaps. so come to government transactions. is to doing so at the expense of critical inputs for the economy in both such as for cooking, gas and

a number of other important commodities as a result of beach citizens off the, i think a degree of hardships are really the best balance from us. we, duncan, the comic book in the, in the long term would be to preemptively restructure external liability. but an issue that we've discussed many, many times on counting the cost. how much of this current crisis is due to the fact that so lanka is so indebted to china? so i would say that the, the current situation is not entirely because of liability to china. so if you look at the upcoming maturities over the next few years, typically around 20 percent of the maturing liabilities are laboratories that, to, to china. the bulk of the, the bulk of life is actually arise out of cars borrowing from commercial markets, from financial markets, particularly just have been bonds, indicated loans and so on. so wife, that is a component of chinese detention is liabilities in this. in this question,

i would not say that it is the predominant cause of the challenges we don't actually think right now. all right, what, what is the cause? we talked a few moments ago about the now scrapped policy to switch to 100 percent organic farming. that affected exports and, and food security. we talked about the, the t industry, the biggest export on suffering is, is that one single cause or is just showing in the wrong place or the long time economically at the moment. so the, the scrapping of can because so replacing the dog and the foot laser that don't have evidence as yet to, to be able to, to be routed to the decline in, in p exports in january survey data, conducted by data research does suggest that farmers do expect significant decline news, so there would be some impact from, from that policy as well. but we don't, because real problem is the fact that it lost access to build equity markets around early 2020. just before the,

the panoramic pandemic it by losing access to go because market it's been not being able to raise capital to be able to refinance maturing debt. so it is had to pay to pay back that using its reserves and to the reserves have evident that windows down to the next level that we are at. and that's really the crux of the problem district are important, which are like us tourism industry, taking such a big hit, 1st of all from the pandemic, and now due to the war in ukraine. is there anything that the government can do to, to increase it's, it's, it's foreign currency reserves, you know, to earn currency that it desperately needs. yeah, so certainly the volume the ukraine does have an impact on, on $320.00, some because just recovering in the last few months around 25 percent of arrival in the last few months have been from either ukraine or russia. so the conflict that 30 does have an impact on, on the balance of payments as does of course,

been on impacts seeing in global commodity prices, particularly particularly oil, gas. we and number of other important products as well because we don't use the net important. so certain, the current geopolitical challenges do not work into junk of feeling terms in terms of current account. that's it. the government has taken some important positive steps in recent days. it floated, there will be the center back floated, but we're not going to be a couple of days ago. and that's certainly a step in the right direction towards encouraging more influence to form a banking channels that can hit the build up of the back of the positive. the central bank also recently raised policy interest rates by a 100 basis points. last week's march board meeting again, a positive in terms of demand management and towards building preserves so that after that i did action. that's a long way to go in terms of facilitating further the moves on the monitor side as well. if that is underpinned by and i miss program to restructuring, i would think that is really the main for the foster care to really sustainably

build up the reserves and to be able to both mutate extended treatment and provide the inputs that are required to sustain the m dash i'll, it's been really good to talk to you on county, the cost money. thank you for being with us. thank you very much. and that's all show for this week. don't forget you can get in touch with us if you want to comment on anything that you've seen, you can tweak me. i'm at a finnegan on twitter. please use the hash tags c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of al jazeera, don't, that is our email address. that is, as always, plenty more for you online. at al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to the page and they, you'll find individual reports, links, even a time episodes for you to catch up. but that is it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian finnegan for the whole team here in bo. how, thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is next

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ah, this is al jazeera. ah hi there. i'm kim fidel. this is the news all live from doha, coming up in the next 60 minutes. ah, air raid sirens blair across multiple ukrainian cities as russian military units move closer to the capital. keith protest is invalid to poll, demands the release of their mer.