boy, and i hope that julian's help him to carry out a program for a different type of society that will raise hopes on our continent so punished by so many dictatorship villainy. edward washington's envoy agrees your statements are different from our perceived human rights to rule law. an incredibly positive what each knows that much of the world and especially latin america are focused on how well he can make good on his promise to create a more inclusive chilly without population or sacrificing democracy. to see in human al jazeera santiago. ah, this is out there are these you top stories? russian forces slowly advancing on ukraine's capital. keith, gum fine explosions were heard in the early hours of saturday. many she convoys taken up possessions surrounding the city. that fastened has moved from keith. a

fierce battle for keith is ongoing. we could hear artillery fire throughout the night, especially coming from the north west and north east of the city. we know that this large column of tanks that was stole there for a week or so, or for a couple of days, 60 kilometers long as dispersed in the neighborhoods in the surroundings of kias right now. this happy fighting going on to ukrainian army is at its full defense. and also at the same time, we see that the russian forces are coming closer to the south through the west route, around the city. but basically there's a sense that they're trying to encircle the capital lay a sort of siege here. 2 and a half 1000000 refugees have now left ukraine, putting pressure on neighboring european countries. all souls may s, as refugees make up 10 percent of the punished capitals population. an accommodation is now running out and we came from mary po,

it is awful. there. the entire city was encircled. no one could get in around both . we prayed as we were flee, god led us and we managed to get out of this all our relatives remaining. of course we have no contact with them. we can't reach them. we are praying for god to save them because we don't know how to help them get out. children of sick now do they have stomach pains. okay, but i don't know what we're going to do next. we're moving towards uncertainty. you do equations. foreign ministry says a most causing about 80 people in southern ukraine has been shelved by russian forces. it reportedly happened in mattie pole where there's been constant bombardment with civilians prevented from safely leaving the city. a number of casualties is unclear. okay, those you headlines for now. the nice continues here, not as they are often sad story, stay with us. talk to al jazeera, we ask, do you believe that the threat of an invasion of ukraine is currently the biggest

threat international peace and security? we listen, we are focusing so much on the humanitarian crisis that we forget the long term development. we meet with global news makers and talk about the stories that matter on al jazeera, they're the most severe sanctions ever imposed on a single country. russia says they amount to a declaration of war as the west expands its measures were vladimir putin before to stop his war on ukraine and have sanctions worked in the past. this is inside school. ah. hello, welcome to the program and has them seek. it's been more than 2 weeks since russia launched its invasion of ukraine. e leaders have been meeting in france to talk about more ways to help you crane and further punish russia. but that hasn't

stopped the cramming from hitting back moscow has now imposed an exports ban on a string of products until the end of this year. about $48.00 countries will be affected, including the u. s. and those in the e. u. russia is already facing the most severe set of western sanctions ever imposed on a single country. they target a variety of sectors, including oil banking, aviation, and people close to president putin. this is a defining moment for europe, and it is a moment where we see that puddings war is also a question of the resilience of democracy. we will, we think energy we have to get rid of the dependency of rushing fossil fuels. and for that we need maximum massive investment in renewables. this is also strategic investment in our security and our independence. a russian president vladimir putin says he's country will emerge stronger and more independent from western sanctions,

which he said were inevitable from soon and only the pressure of sanctions has always existed. of course today it is of a more complicated nature and is posing certain questions, problems and difficulties on the but we will overcome them now just like we have overcome problems and previous years, at the end of the day, all of this will lead to the increase of our independence autonomy and sovereignty in let's take a closer look at the growing number of international companies that have pulled out of russia, mcdonalds, coca cola, and starbucks are among the latest corporations. suspending operations after rushes, invasion of ukraine, germany's volkswagen and japan's toyota both halted production in russia indefinitely. and several tech firms have closed up shop, including software companies, microsoft and s a p. fashion brands h and m and tsar, i have also joined the corporate exodus. ah,

let's bring in our guests now. joining us from london, chris, we thought chief executive officer macro advisory strategic consultancy focused on russia and eurasia in oslo. glen diesel professor of international relations at the university of south eastern norway and also in london. tom burgess, author of the sunday times bestselling book clip toppia, how dirty money is conquering the world. good. have you with this gentleman quickly for let me start with you will all these sanctions as they currently stand working and they're starting to have an impact for sure. let me just say up front that the sanctions are very severe. are not likely to lead to a financial collapse or e, or even, and he cannot make collapse as maybe we've seen previously. and that's because russia has been living under a sanctions regime regime, which has been typing ever since 2014. so the economy to some extent has built in

like some resilience to sanctions but, but not, of course, to the extent we're seeing. so we are starting to see some companies laying off stuff because they cannot get spare parts because of the trade embargo. we're starting to see of course, the high profile brands like i keep mcdonalds and others, at least temporarily closing their business in russia, which is leading to layoffs and then the chart of goods. so we're starting to see this creeping impact on, on the economy. but as i say in terms of financial stability are kind of overall macro economic stability. that's not yet at risk and won't be so long as russia is able to continue exports in key products such as gas or industrial materials and is able to be paid for it. so you know, in that sense, no collapse, but clearly a deteriorating situation. chris, tom budget, what's your take on how effectively sanctions or what,

what the overall effect to them is what we have to put them into 2 parts of the spectral sections, which is essentially just sort of economic attack producing that puts as a person exports like oil and gas trading ball goes the kind of things chris talked about a moment ago and then is the target thanks. and which are sort of subtler and hard . it's read in a way. these are obviously the attacks on the personal wealth of those who have prospects on the kitchen clips obviously for many years. and they are being counted as a way to put pressure on him. i would offer an, an a note to skepticism with those as well. i would say the 2 categories of alec ox, the 1919 old, a galks who am got written to privatize ations and then why that wings clipped, rather by preaching and were made dependent on him but but, but maintain relationships with him they. i think i've limited influence on his decision making and then there's a kind of putin error oligarchy who and

a lot of him have like him passed in the k g, b and, and were in some cases plucked from obscurity and created by preaching. they have a much greater personal dependency on him, and payroll say, sort of barons of state companies, generally, oil gas pipelines, et cetera, as opposed to private ones. but if the aim of the sanctions is to ultimately to persuade the, the, the, the richest beneficiaries of russia's cryptography that they need a new boss at the top. because putin's policies are proving to ruinous for their wealth. you've got a question that logic as well because so many of them are so bound up with him that typically my experience of covering clips of course is all of the world. when, when the big man goes down, those close to him, go down with him. she got one to, to what extent that they would c as in their interest to try to remove teaching at any stage. yeah, i mean, we can certainly talk more about that a little bit later. this is, this is related to britain's decision isn't to put several russian oligarchs on

their sanctions list because many of them have have a lot of their money in, in, in u. k. banks. so yeah, we'll, we'll talk a little more of that in a moment. but i want to turn to glen these and get his take on on the sanctions overall. the history of sanctions. as far as having the desired effect of getting the people that they are targeting to, to change their position or maybe get them to back down is, is not a great one. is it? it's check that best you expect this to be any different. i will, this is a problem of sanctions put in place because i still have to do something and it's either economics pressure or military pressure sometimes you know, doing something doesn't necessarily mean anything achieved. well, when the out, whether or not the sanctions are working, they're successful. it really depends what, what, what we consider the purpose of the sanctions to be weak in the russia, russian economy, as the sped teacher there. and then i was saying,

so they're working it, it's a couple russia from the european economist and it's also working. however, one would also have to find 2014 russia working towards reorienting economy from the west, mainly china. and it's all on attendance by the process. but typically when we talk about sanctions, the purpose is to make or change your policy. we're so we're influencing the cost benefit analysis connections. but in order to the extent to which sanctions will be effective, really have to say, well, what, what russia motivation and i think ultimately get it wrong. one gets the impression from the media who did just woke up one day in a bad mood, decided to, you know, congress on the territory. i think it's important to see the russian perspective. and this is after nato expansion is 30 years. russia threat to the security for the past 15 years, a very clear that you can't absorption in nato some extra special. so in other

words, this is a red line and they will effectively risk everything for this is all or nothing. it's little bit like a united states were willing to literate to buy in order to get a soviet out. so i think it's important understand is because it process where you are getting nato away from his cognitive. what would happen if russia would go back as far as out today with the mood we have in the west, native would work, moves directly in with weapons and everything else into ukraine fairly quickly and again, this is something that i cannot do. so i think there are russians are willing, some sort of an enormous amount of economic pain and they're not going to back down because again, for them, this is an extension. it's a red light. so i, i don't see any future for the sanctions. i think when i change, you will have to talk about some security arrangements with ross's ok, chris,

we'll put you in a said that russia strong enough to withstand sanctions and this will end up putting the west in the form of higher food and energy prices is he right, well looking to receive the price of so commodities keep lives these energy but also other commodities that rushes imports flyer off, for example, reach another soft agriculture products. all these prices are rising. so it is putting in stationary pressure on the global economy and therefore that will affect monetary policy. policies will affect the global economy. so he's right in that respect, what to what extent russia can withstand the pain and how long can we send to pay? 30 is an open question. russia as earlier, has made a lot of preparations to be more resilient. again, sanctions, for example, if we go back to 2013,

russia was entirely dependent. the oil price needed $115.00 a year to balance its budget. this year is be less than $50.00 for the call back then russia imported 50 percent of its food consumption, mostly from europe or from the west. no, russia is completely self sufficient. so there's no risk of any food. sure. just certainly basic items on the shelves. and at the start of this year, russia had built out substantial financial work, just $630000000000.00 to fix the highest in the world. and we also know that the central bank is greatly dispersed those reserve. so even though the central bank has no sanctions and reserves held in western banks or sanction countries, they can access. but a lot of reserves to be moved to china and moved elsewhere where they can access them. so in that sense, fusion is right and saying to russia can withstand a lot of pain because he has made the economy about more millions banking system,

etc. is a lot stronger than used to be, but the critical factor to repeat is so long as russia is able to exports its key commodities such as gas and other materials and be safe for them. so long as there are some banks remaining in the system, then russia is earning by our estimate at least $30000000000.00 current account surplus every month because imports of collapse. so the current account surface is done up. and that's a substantial financial lifeline. which means that the government can continue to fund employment subsidies, maintain domestic economic stability, some social programs, it cetera, pensions, etc. and that means this situation in russia not ideal start growing mcdonald's of clothes, but there really is no danger of an economic or financial collapse. and that probably means that social pressures won't be that much, either. somebody is going back to the issue around the oligarchs and going off to

the russian. all the golf, particularly those, as you said, who are, who are very close to, to put in the, the later generation. and the thinking here, as you were saying, is that the sanctions will somehow it's hope to put the squeeze on them because they've, they've have their wagon to preach and up to now. and they might think about turning against him. but could they even whether this financially, because this is coming more than 2 weeks into this worn out, it's been criticism of the british government. they've acted too slow. would they have had time then to to kind of move their money elsewhere so that no one, no one can touch it. i mean, is it too little, too late at this point? yeah, i mean i just just have to quickly check issue with the day that the til go ahead of defense of what this is a kind of i have to take issue with this is a defense of war. i mean, the, let's, let's, let's be clear about what, what the russian regime is. it's a regime of thieves. it puts in as soon as he came back to petersburg,

at the end of the cold war, began enriching himself through corruption. and he's just massively gone on magnifying that process. an apple bumper lately described in his he's just the 1st among a group of 1000000000 as the one who controls the secret police. that's the engine of picking regime is corruption. it's a clip tacos that runs on corruption. now, that mean that it requires extraordinary feats propaganda to, to maintain control. part of the propaganda has been, discuss stories about the knots, to cation and the militarization of ukraine. and this is what's been used as false pretext. the invasion now the, it's, it, it follows from that that the motivations of patient, of those around him, ah, in many since his material layer, about their own access to wealth and the security that, that brings that targeting that wealth is important. as you say though, the way the west is going about it, the u. k, but also europe and the u. s. has been pretty sloppy,

especially in the u. k. the enormous delay and imposing sanctions when they're obviously coming leads to a lot of anecdotal accounts of money being spirited away before names to the french list. further that the u. k. record of enforcing functions adopted pitiful. it remains the case that the u. k. like the rest of the world continues to allow this insane idea of financial secrecy which become so widespread. we become accustomed to it, but you can, if you're rich enough, participate in a democratic free market economy in the skies behind a front company. so you put a few names on the list and you may be cause trouble for chelsea and grab a few yards. but we don't know what the russians lots of these really do with its wealth because we allow them to move it around in secret. the final to make an it picks up on something that was raised earlier is the, is the, is the prospect, but this could backfire by accelerating what i called in my book the, the rise of crept opiate. an alliance is trapped across by pushing the rushing,

crept across the elite, but also the economy more generally, into alliances with other ultra corrupt states. china, venezuela, around they all wear different kind of ideological masks, but simply they're all the political systems role engines for the enrichment of the powerful and the more we use sanctions, donald trump, is an incredibly liberally the mobile use them, the bigger the club of outcasts get and the more that club of outcast band together, and if you throw everyone out, then sanctions on cell similar complaints because there's no turn it economy that people can operate. let's talk a bit more about the, the potential economic blowback on this is a little more widely glen deason. is there a real danger that these sanctions will end up hurting too many people to me, ordinary people in the west, in the form of inflation, higher energy prices, which will, will already seen now energy production. i think all of this in this

area. so you're going to be much higher, prized by then energy, very interesting area, because a lot of energy price goes up and everything else has to go up. as i think it's going to be very hard to control it. but that is why you're being something very cautious as it follow. the american lead on this to this very strict sanctions, which are registered with with russia. and i think there's also other problems that are coming down the road because as well as the previous speaker mentioned, not one of the problems with sanctions is obviously if they're too harsh and, and the response, your last one, your punishing think to live without you a they find alternatives, and i think there's too many countries being being functions from china, russia, iran. i think a lot of these countries have something now to establish a parallel economic infrastructure, which they already are seeking to cut off from the western technologies and

industry. transportation corridors, their banks that us dollar switch, i mean they created, they'll turn on it. and of course, they still have a lot of work to be done. but this is obviously the trend, so you can only use, it's actually a long beyond the how the function rickland russia will. you also have to keep in mind that china and other countries are also watching as well, because it's becoming a case and what might happen to them in the future. so if you're sitting and doing that, would you want to be there to be able, by having dependence on the dollar, you know, using switched. you have any real estate using american technologies. banks certainly are not making preparation to cut off from america to reduce your expense, to reduce your own military. and so this is the situation we're in with excessive sanctions. any economic dependence become weaponized by another state. so,

so with, with the harshness on the side, i don't think it's been properly thought how this could play out. also, just from a final point i was russia gonna respond again, sanctioning the russian central. thank you very extreme stuff. now we can brush, my doctor sees more with national lives, certain assets, oil and gas deliveries. and it's been focused on asia again and withdrawal patterns on businesses. simply take over the companies that are leaving. i'm not sure if it's possible with me to save the workplaces and make wrong the final horse from the west and just the 5 it's future lives with the away from the conscious. yeah, let's put that to, to chris lee for i mean it, glen these and brings up a point that russia has a weapons of its own economically and can respond in kind. i mean, how,

how damaging could that be for the countries that are, that are targeting russia? yeah, of course, this is if this to happen, it will be known as the damages to the global economy. because you have to look at a map and see to russia is the major kind of commodities fire for the world's not just oil and gas, but wheat, ukraine, and russia. the 2 biggest reduces of reach and ukraine exports and of course disrupt us. but also co nichol, palladium and all sorts of material. so if russia, if those experts from russia with the south and here it is lovely konami impact would be very severe and we'd love recession. but it's important to bear in mind that, you know, at least as it stands right now, president putin and other people around them continue to say, says russia will continue to honor or export contracts. now, of course, what they're saying is that particular europe, if europe continues to buy russian gas as part of the contract and the volumes and

the pricing and russia will continue to supply. and for example, every gas from every day sends and updates that is, you know, sending gas through all the various routes, including across ukraine every day as per the contract. and this is the same and the soviet union, there was never a supply disruption. so i think that, you know, thank you by russia is saying that provides you keep paying us and the routes for which we can be paid, such as some banks in the system, then we will keep supplying. but they clearly never losing opportunity to remind the rest of the world just dependence. the global economy is on russian commodities . talking about the question rationalization. that is important also because when you talk about companies like 2nd coca cola or, or other brands, they're essentially russian companies. they employ russian people and this source, their product, mostly in russia, i kia and a few others are different. that's why i keep close quite quickly because it could

not import flat back for richard cetera. but in the case of mcdonalds and other companies that are sourcing their materials inside the country, are essentially russian companies in terms of employment and paying taxes. then what the rest of government is saying is that they want those companies to stay. they prefer to stay and actually they're offering incentives for companies to stay even recognizing that some companies are under global consumer or stakeholder pressure to temporarily close. they are, they're accepting that they're acknowledging that, but they still want to them to stay. but if they choose to go, if companies say we're not exiting russia, we're not coming back. then the russian government says that their businesses could be nationalized because they want to protect was jobs, or the assets could be confiscated and sold elsewhere. and then just very quickly aligned or that we have in china already saying that there are big companies are

now actively looking at acid acquisition opportunities, particularly in strategic sectors such as energy or materials. they will be came by or for any western acids to become available and russia will accommodate us. all right, just turning back then to, to tom, but just soon on. what's probably going to be the last word on this coming back to the, to the all galks. is there a kind of, if you look at the optics of this, is there a sort of messaging problem that the west has with with the ukrainians in the, you know, what's, what's going after a few russia billionaires going to do for the millions of ukrainians who are suffering right now that, that you know, that they've got enough money to whether they so what kind of, i mean if you think you think there's, there's a messaging issue there in terms of showing ukraine that, that the west is fully behind them. yeah. i see, i think he goes much further than that. i think can you read the, the statement that the u. k. and other western governments have made to accompany

the sanctions decision to justify why eagle such a on a got a pasco, and gram and remove it. so whoever is going on this list and who's very little information as far as i can see in any of those that we didn't know the week go months ago a year ago that we didn't know in some cases. but quin putin murdered lit financial on the streets of london or more pointedly. we didn't know when christian annex crimea in 2014, but up until now our decision has essentially been you know, what we would rather keep the money. and i think there is a mismatch and all right, we're doing now and what could, what you couldn't, you might feel they could demand of us on 40 that's going to have to be the last word we're out of time. thank you. 2 or 3 of you, chris, we for claire deason and tom burgess. thanks so much for being on inside toy. and thank you. as always watching when you see this program again, anytime just go to a website or just a dot com and for further discussion,

go to our facebook page at facebook, doc. com, forward slash ha inside stored. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle. there is as a j inside toys, and we have the entire team here, bye for now. the from the london broadcast center to special guests in conversation, christine all about trying to get a superior reputation, unprompted uninterrupted. where we find the most profound similarity is not actually in our classes living relatives. but as a much more distant connection, intimately reflecting on the issues of our time, they're going to be a corporate of species. he caught it in putting each other up and threaten each other all the sod studio b unscripted. coming soon on al jazeera stories of life. and inspiration, ah,

a series of short documentaries from around the world that celebrate the human spirit. against the odds ah, our jazeera selects palestinians, living in a war zone is a risk not worth taking for most but for a 10 year old boy, there is nowhere else to go. in the absence of his parents, his grandmother dedicates herself to his upbringing. never knowing whether the next explosion will echo one step closer to the place they call home the distant barking of dogs. a witness documentary on al jazeera. ah,

now g 0 with every oh ah, i'm kimberly allen. doha, with the top stories on al jazeera, people are taking shelter under grounds. his russian forces advance on ukraine's capital gun fire and explosions have been heard in the early hours of saturday, with russian brown forces mass just 25 kilometers from the center of keith. moscow has widened the scope of its attacks with the war now in its 3rd week, step barson is in the capital. we've heard that also buildings at least one a much closer here to the center, around one and a half kilometers.