[000:00:00;00] ah, now juicer with every oh ah, i'm kimberly allen dough. with the top stories on al jazeera, people are taking shelter on the grounds. his russian forces advance on ukraine's capital gone, fire and explosions had been heard in the early hours of saturday, with russian brown forces mass just 25 kilometers from the centre. o'keefe. moscow has widened the scope of its attacks with the war. now in its 3rd week, step boston is in the capital. we've heard that also buildings at least one are much closer here to the center around one and

a half kilometers away from where i am right now was hit by some kind of object as you ukrainian authorities describe it, it looks like a russian drone, possibly full of explosives also in the east 3rd towards the east 3rd part of the city. there was also a similar explosion, and also in the south the air base has been destroyed near the south west of the city. meanwhile, also the ukrainian authorities are warning for the so called false flag operation coming from belarus. they say russian forces might target even a bell rou, sir, to the north here or for ukraine. it's basically only like 2 hours away from the capital, alleging maybe that baller ocean forces would be drawn into this conflict. we haven't seen any evidence of that, but we've heard that there is a lot of for this content in the blue ocean army about adjoining this war. there is a de brotherhood. there's

a lot of families who live here across the border. so it looks like her flood in a put in looking for a help from belarus, but also volunteers from other parts of the world. but meanwhile, the defense hearing ukraine is really fighting a fierce battle for the defense of the capital. and so far, the capital is still in ukrainian hands. protest isn't ukrainian city of many tow pole are demanding the release of their mer. ukraine's government is put out security camera video, which it says shows in being abducted by russian soldiers. president flor madeline ski is calling on world leaders to help secure the mess. release formula, pasta mc line. we demand maybe immediately released. we're talking to france, germany, israel and others. i personally have a hold german chancellor, schultz and french president my crop. i'll talk to everybody necessary in order to get our people released. we expect world leaders to show how they can influence the

situation and do one simple thing, get this one personally. so the very person who represents the people of millet upon police 2 and a half 1000000 refugees have now left ukraine, putting pressure on neighboring european nations. walsall of mass as refugees. now my comp, 10 percent of the polish capital population. the commendation is running out. when we came from mary, oppose, it is awful that the entire city was encircled him. no one could get in around. we prayed, as we were flee, god led us and we managed to get out of there. all relatives remain that we have no contact with them. we can't reach them. we are praying for god to save them because we don't know how to help them get out. children a sick now just have stomach pains, but i don't know what we're going to do next. we're moving towards uncertainty grain. foreign ministry says a mos calling about 80 people in southern ukraine has been shelved by russian forces,

reportedly happens in mario pole where there's been constant bombardment. the civilians prevented from safely leaving the city. the russian foreign ministry is warning the price of oil gas and electricity could rise by $3.00 times because of sanctions imposed against moscow. a russian government official also warns the international space station could crash because of the sanctions. in other news units, f says the number of children killed and war torn in yemen is continuing to rise. the un children's agency says nearly 50 children were reported. they killed or injured in the 1st 2 months of 2022 alone. today through left leading president, designed to improve the lives of all julian, 36 bridge is the country the youngest ever president. during this campaign he promised to form a government that would tackle poverty and inequality. and those the headlines use, continue. fair on al jazeera off the the bottom line.

the news hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. will ukraine become rushes forever war? and if so, what does that mean for the rest of the world? let's get to the bottom line. ah, it's been 2 weeks since russia started a new chapter in our history book, shaking up the world order by invading ukraine. now folks around the world are asking the same questions. is this how world war 3 starts? could this war go nuclear? what's the end game in the mind of russian president vladimir putin? is there any way out that actually bring some sense of stability to the region and besides sanctioning russia and arming ukraine? what will the response of the west be? and though somebody test this question, when passions are really running, hi, how did we get here?

those are the issues at stake. and we're fortunate today to be talking with one of the world's foremost experts on russia and global strategic competition. and it'll leave in a senior research fellow in russia and europe at the quincy institute for responsible stay crap and author of ukraine and russia, a fraternal rivalry, i guess i should say. not so fraternal any more. i'm and it's also a real pleasure to be with you today, and let's just take it where we are today. you're one of the world's leading realists. what is windermere putin's objective at this moment? where do you see things going to find out what fusion is big asked polluted, i don't live inside his brain. what i can say is that if the intention was to replace the ukrainian government with a pro russian government, then, you know, unless putin has truly gone crazy, the russians must realize that that simply will not work because of the strength and unity of the ukrainian resistance in any government put in by,

by russia would lack all legitimacy and could only be kept in place by a permanent russian army and permanent repression. indeed, i think that's also true of the russian speaking areas in the inside of ukraine. the only chance for russia, the only chance to take over those areas and use them as a base with ukraine. politically speaking, was russia could do that quickly and relatively painlessly. well, now it's going to ruin over heap of ruins and innumerable civilian deaths. it really is not easy to see. you know, russia can win its political goals within ukraine. if this now not a conflict between major powers including us, what are your views? was yes, it is becoming a proxy will you know, as so many tragic completes during the cold war, one should not forget the drug voices in america, including after all,

the former us commander of nature, general breedlove, calling for a no fly zone. well, that means sending us force in there are a lot of the ukrainians to fight against russia. i mean, then we are coming very close indeed to a war between the world's to greatest nuclear powers. but even, i mean, even a proxy will, will have dire implications, the european and global security. and of course, it will also mean the long running deep economic sanctions, which we can already see the effects both on global energy prices. but also, i mean, and this is what really worries me global food prices, because russia is the biggest global food exporter and ukraine is also a major food exporter. not we know from the run up to the arrows, spring, and other cases, the ability of inflation, food prices to cause deep instability around the world,

including and key us allies. so rusher of course has a colossal amount to lose and has begun to lose it. as a result of this war, but we shouldn't ignore the fact that the west and the rest of the world has a lot to as well. well, and it's all around the time when you and i 1st got to know each other, which was in the late 1900 ninety's. you wrote a book on ukraine and russia, which we just mentioned. and in there you write very clearly, this is, this is more than 20 years ago. any attempt by one side or the other by russia or the west to take ukraine fully into an alliance with either of them would be, would disastrously split ukraine. let me also read this statement from former us ambassador to russia, and now the current ca director william burns, and this was folks, this is in the wiki leeks document. this was a classified cable from then, ambassador burns on the 1st of february, 2008. burns, writes, nato enlargement, particularly the ukraine remains in emotional and neurologic issue for roger russia

. these include fears at the issue could potentially split the country into leading to violence or even some claim civil war, which would force russia to decide whether to intervene. so we can look back at this time in it. and it's one of these uncomfortable discussions that perhaps the come come later when we're seeing civilians killed in this conflict. we're seeing really the, a horrible kind of kinetic war. this is not the sort of hybrid cyber war that i thought russia was investing. and this is old style nastiness, and, but it does raise the question of what are blind spots are. as we look at america strategic equities in the world and where, what we're willing to pay for our principles, what is, what is the price of those principles? and i guess if you were advising president biden or nato at this moment, what would be some of the guidelines you would put in place? and it's all, i think, one of the things i tell them is that the idea of a treaty of neutrality, which is now being demanded by russia,

which has been proposed by many of us for many years now. it's talked about in the west as this. this is simply a concession on the ukrainian side on our side. it isn't a treaty of neutrality as signed by finland and austria in different ways during the cold war. excluded them from joining nature, but it also excluded them from joining the war. so, packed a treaty of neutrality for ukraine would rule out ukraine joining nato. it would also rule out ukraine joining the ration union and any other russian lead alliance . so, you know, what we need to focus on is maintaining the sovereignty of ukraine. of course, i mean, russian domination of ukraine, as i suggested, you know, the appointment of the pro russian government is impossible not. and must, of course, be absolutely rejected. but it still seems to me that we can learn from the cold

war and the examples of finland and austria, that a treaty of neutrality is in fact, a perfectly good way out of this horrible war and not to distract. because the other thing you have to remember about and austria, i visited those countries during the cold war. you, you couldn't tell, they went part of the west. they couldn't be part of nato, but they were completely functioning. western free market to mol, chris's. i cannot understand why this aspect of things is not talked about more widely in, in the west and why why we could not negotiate a treaty of neutrality before this war. what is your says, you know more people in russia than anyone else? i know. are you able to talk with them converse, what's the sense of stress and does that create a cost per in the long run? i think, yes, i mean, at the moment you know, ordinary russians, quite frankly, have been to a great degree, brainwashed, by state propaganda in russia. but as you say,

as the body bags come back as the economic costs rise and living standards decline, i think that unrest against pollution is bound to grow. now you can already see deep knees in sections of the russian leads to interesting categories here. one is some of the, the biggest business men have and people by the way, who been very close to boot and very supportive of booting publicly called for an end to end the war and warned of it's economic consequences. the other interesting thing is that some of the children of the russian li, sooner who been educated in the west, had western lifestyles, many western friends they have sought to come out against the war. and in both these cases, it's because these people understand much, much better than the massive population, just how much russia is going to suffer from this. so i think over time, it will be yes. i mean,

it will really undermine putin's rule. but the problem is that the decision making circle around putin and the people he listens to, has narrowed so far, particularly since coven again, that it now consists of barely half a dozen people. we talk about the russian elites in general. we talk about russian oligarchs, colon molly dogs is actually wrong. these big russian business men have no political power anymore. they don't play a part in deciding on issues of war and peace. and so, while i think it very likely in the long run, that putin, you know, will be removed, it will be, i fear a long and difficult process because it will mean getting it, not just of him, but of his in a circle as well. now, one can imagine deals whereby this is done, you know, guaranteeing that personal safety guaranteeing the family's property. but there are,

you know, there are tough and resolute bunch, i think they will absent of a peace settlement and a p settlement that can create some appearance of success for russia. and for then, i think they're prepared to fight on for a long time. but but i was surprised at it all about hooton's. have seen us in waving his nuclear arsenal around. i was, i was very surprised because seem to indicate to me, ah, a concern about the capabilities of his conventional forces. what are your take on that, and what do you sense and your knowledge of, you know, mutual assured destruction and, you know, nuclear conflict is going on there. and what are your thoughts about the russian military after seeing it for nearly 2 weeks? well, it's clear that things are not going nearly as well as booted and the russian government hoped. and i think here the, the key point is that the ukrainians had done what the chechens did. in 1995 and in

1999 they have retreated. if you like into the ukranian cities and they are prepared to fight it out street by street. and of course, this is disastrous for russia's political goals because it will lead to the destruction of cities. but urban warfare, of course, does also act as america is found, sometimes partly to negate your superiority in weapons and 5. now, as to putin waving the nuclear weapon, i think the obvious, he's trying to scare the west and the europeans in particular into limiting their support the ukraine. i do not think that he intends to use this weapon. but of course, the risks are if the united states introduced a no fly zone with american croft operating out of bases in poland, then i have very little doubt that russia would attack those bases with missiles. then we will get into something which, you know, throughout the cold war,

leaders on both sides weren't so careful to avoid, which is an actual direct military trash of between the 2 nuclear, so superpowers of the world. but of course, even a long running guerrilla war, supported from the west supply across poland, would give russia, you know, such an incentive to disrupt europe and the west in every way possible. what i also feel there is that an insurgency in the ukraine because, you know, i, i traveled with the major dean and i've got to start in the 1980s. and i studied the history of insurgency. there is an almost automatic tendency in the circumstances for the most extreme and hard line sections of the insurgents to come to the full in this case. this is extreme ukrainian ethnic nationalists. that seems to me that the only thing that could drive the russian speaking population of

eastern southern ukraine back into the arms of a russia, which frankly, by now they detest, would be if they came under under threat from an extreme ukrainian nationalists who have not just russia estate, but also russians including ukrainian russians as a people. so i think this is something that we have to be very, very careful about. well, i want to go back to some you just said was very easy because i talked to some senior polish government officials. recently who said it is inevitable that poland will become as pakistan was to afghanistan, we will drive supply and help direct and insurgency. and in that, in ukraine, and in that case, wouldn't russia then, as you just said, i think step in to try to do something against pulling the, which is a nato member. yes, i mean that, that, that is precisely it nature then comes very close to conflict with russia. i mean,

that is why i and others are so strongly advocating an attempt, however, difficult to bring the bias and early peace settlement to this complet. what and the other question i have is, you know, we're going to look back at this moment and i'm wondering if someone's going to have you. and i both know a big me of brzezinski the late pacific, big new present sky who, who sort of took credit for, ah, the soviet invasion in afghanistan saying he helped lead, lead them into afghanistan and into their own vietnam. the question, there is a ran study that was published a few years ago that basically said, perhaps the smart strategy was to find ways to impose costs on russia. and this, this study said that if you could unbalance it, you could do cost imposing options. it could unbalanced over extend russia. such cost imposing options, could place new burdens on russia, ideally, heavier burdens than would be imposed in the u. s. for imposing his options. now, i don't believe that the study actually endorsed, taking this step in ukraine,

but it's going to raise the question at some level on whether russia is now the one that stuck in its quagmire. that it's a good distraction to have russian power. ah, and attention focused in something like this. is there any sense to that logic at all? well, i don't think so because in the cold war the soviet union was aligned against the united states on so many different fronts, challenging american interests in africa, in the middle east and central america today, at least in the greater middle east, including afghanistan objectively speaking on the key issue, russia is on america's side against isis, against sony islamist extremism in russia is not aligned against and by the way, in western africa as well. when may dislike greatly the, the history and nature of the, of the wagner private security group. but the fact is that in western africa,

they're fighting against the same people that we'll islamist insurgence. so this isn't like the cold war, a toll in that way this, this, ukraine is not a distraction from somewhere else. ukraine is about ukraine. the other thing that i really do think amidst all this moralizing language that we should remember is that these proxy was during the cold war in afghanistan, in an goler. in central america waged over the corpses. in india, china obviously waged over the corpses of innumerable local people who died and suffered in these conflicts. and of course then there is the irony of history. as i say, i was when the merger had enough gone and less than 20 years after the soviets withdrew and the communist government can storm south america was trying to recruit former communist officers in afghanistan to fight in the national army against the taliban . who were the linear descendants of the majority who we had supported?

so in a, please, let's think about what, what's gonna happen to ukraine in the process and not turn this into some new version of the cold war. and i told you more than almost anyone i know have a foot several feet in different continents around the world. but you know, america, well, we worked together years ago at the new america foundation. and i know you know, this country right now. you have some republican leaders in the united states senate. you have a former us president that keep lauding vladimir putin as a, as a savvy genius. you have real ambivalence through a lot of the american public about ukraine and what it represents at all to american interest. not looking at the broader nato parts of this. but there is a kind of trend inside the united states. folks where whether you call it america 1st, but it's sort of tendency to disregard the benefits that come from the kind of american engagement in the world. and i'd be interested in what you think about american

public opinion going a different direction than, than we've just articulated with what's happening with military resolve and nato. well, i think anyone who expresses admiration anymore for the person's intelligence is crazy. frankly, i used to admire him as a savvy operator, but clearly, i mean, what he's done in ukraine proves, recklessness, foolishness, extreme ambition and, and incapacity. it would seem now to listen to intelligence and intelligence advice . so, i mean, i really think anyone who still talking about putin as a strategic genius has not been reading the need, is or looking at the pictures. but as far as americans who died, the wisdom of america becoming engaged in really heavy commitments

and really can all make sacrifices for ordinary americans as part of a struggle against russia in ukraine. i think that is, you know, a very strong segment of opinion, which i think is likely to grow if it rushes intentions are to subjugation rule out of ukraine than i think you will see real, you know, solidarity not just within america, but between america and europe over this, but if it becomes a question of waging on an ending proxy rule, basically in order to give up hold on to the principle of nature membership ukraine, which nobody believes can happen anyway. since nature will not fight fee crane and to insist on russian withdrawals from crimea, which will never happen, every russian was liberal russians. i talk to say that that is impossible. well then i think you might well see, you know, a backlash against this in western opinion. so, i mean, my feeling is,

i totally support the harshest economic sanctions against russia, but they must be tied to the aim of bringing about an early end. this was not just for the sake of the ukrainians, but also because i, i think that over time this might also lead to a serious sprain of the western lines. let me also ask you an a toll about the recent p separate. so there's been one set of peace efforts between representatives of zelinski government and russia meeting and bella roost. but there's also been this interesting israeli track that we've just learned about, be interested to know what you think about these 2 tracks, particularly the israeli one, whether you think there's any prospect of achieving what you've suggested, which is an early piece in a new equilibrium in all of this well, i would be delighted this israeli would broker a peace process. the russian new crane and foreign ministers have agreed to meet in turkey later this week, which is also of course,

neutral territory between the 2. it seems to me that if russia's principles for peace are sincere and in a rush or is not still determined to impose a pro russian government on, on ukraine than in principle, these ought to be negotiable. as we say, a treaty of neutrality zelinski has hinted a pass, and in any case it meets logical sense. recognition of a russian sovereignty of a crime in russia is not going to abandon crimea, perhaps as thomas graham from us did not in moscow. and others have suggested that would be a way of legitimizing this internationally by a referendum, under international supervision. the russian foreign minister leverage has suggested that demilitarization, which of the russian demand might only mean ukraine, giving up the long range missiles and russia. in other words, this would really be very close to the deal that ended the ordeal which ended the

cuban missile crisis was not to crate and giving up its own on forces. that the question of course, but a limitation on certain kinds of weapons. and on denot vacation, well, that is very difficult. we're not sure exactly what it means. it in my view, what the ukrainians should do, particularly because after all, because russian speakers and russians in ukraine have demonstrated that loyalty to ukraine in this war and deserve some credits and reward for that. what ukraine should do is give up its legislation, which is attempting to dr. rush, the russian language out of public life in ukraine, and guarantee the status of russian as a minority language under the russian constitution under the ukrainian constitution . i don't know, of course, if any of this would work, but if there is a desire to peace on both sides. and if this process receives the full backing of

the west as it should, then i do think that should be a possibility of an agreement along these lines. well without deluding ourselves, i'm still please that we can end on a somewhat of a fortunate positive possibility. if not likelihood, given everything is going on and it's leaving from the quince, the institute for responsible st. statecraft. thank you so much for joining us. it was a pleasure. thank you. so what's the bottom line? the west can't pretend. it's not indirect conflict with russia any more. the yachts of rushes billionaires are being impounded and huge. corporations are pulling their investments airspace is being blocked, and america supplying ukraine with weapons. so it's already a conflict between the great powers and there's no going back. a lot of people, unfortunately, are gonna die while russia and the west, the side. the next moves in this new cold war. the world is more connected, but it's a network of fear rather than of trust. every one loses when fear and anxiety,

torpedo, the global trust and sense of common purpose, needed to tackle our global challenges. and that's the bottom line. ah, a story of love deception. love and death and israeli spelling operating on the deep cover in syria. knowing that discovery would meet certain death. algae 0 wow. tell a gripping story of most at spy, else coming, operated on the cover in syria. in the 1960 notation career that ended in public execution, eli cohen must have agents 18 on al jazeera, had worked out as her english since it's lordship, as a principal present, and as a correspondence with any breaking the story we want to hear from those people who would normally not get that voice is heard on the international news channels. one

moment i'll be very proud of was when we covered the de paula quake of 2050, a terrible natural disaster on the story that needs to be told from the hall of the affected area to be then to tell the people story was very important of the time, oh, i'm kimbell and on the top stories on al jazeera, more people are taking shelter underground as rushes, military advances on ukraine's capital. gun fired, explosions have been heard, and the early hours of saturday, with russian ground forces massed just 25 kilometers from the center of keys. moscow is wide in the scope of its attacks with the war. now in its 3rd week. protest is a mechanic city of many tow poll demanding the release of their mer. ukraine's