jones, at me, iraq's last generation on al jazeera, now diverse range of stories from across the globe. from the perspective of on networks journalists on al jazeera. ah, hello, i'm darren jordan in doha with a quick reminder, the top stories here on the al jazeera officials in the besieged ukrainian city of mario poll. say that 12 days of russian bombardment of killed 1500 people. the cities been cut off from the rest of the world with no one allowed in or out as fighting rages on the hot reports. dozens of buses stand ready to enter, merrier poll, filled with food and water. they're trying to reach one of the areas hardest hit by russian showing their only protection signs on the windows. people and

ukrainian they tried to go in, but, or turned around was in the or is it say, i have to say this is paying more than marry up or remains blocked by the enemy of the size of the russian troops did not lead out into the city and continued to torture. our people, our merrier residence. tomorrow we'll try again. once again, send food, water and medicine for our city. for nearly 2 weeks, no one has been able to leave the city. and no aid has entered me. we were trapped underground and 2 children died nor was able to save them. these people here are desperate for help. there are thousands and thousands of families trapped in the city who are running out of water. and then at that point what you do even our team, the international,

pretty red cross team that isn't mario poll. they've effectively run out of water and they're telling us ok, now we go to a stream and collect water, we boil it, we drink it. well, how do tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people do that, especially if you're elderly. these satellite pictures show industrial and residential buildings, flattened fires, still burning, ukraine's foreign minister. demeter aqua says russia wants to capture the city at any cost. mario poll is crucially important for russia, because if they seize control over the city, they will establish the wreck, land quarter to 2 crimea from and they will also cover us off from axis to as of see, this is why we still fiercely and heroically defended. and this is why russia so ruthlessly trying to destroy the city and capture it at any cost.

ukraine says it will not surrender or retreat and attempts to reach people trapped in the city will continue. jak e in this delisa laquata. neal, we will try to morrow again to evacuate people from mario problems. we will again do it tomorrow in front of the whole world in front of the politicians and leaders in front of the entire planet earth. but for now, these buses remain full of aid, but empty of people who want to leave leo harding al jazeera, russia's military admits the situation and some ukrainian cities is catastrophic. but says ukraine and its allies are to blame. when, when you've done as you go out, so no green you, the humanitarian situation in ukraine, unfortunately continues to rapidly rawson, and in some cities has reached catastrophic proportions. armed ukrainian forces mines in the residential areas, new destroying bridge is an infrastructure. as

a result of those criminal actions against their own people, this is the action of the ukrainian authorities. i did, those people are forced to survive without eating food, water, or medication that'll do. russian forces are continuing their, pushed to encircle the ukrainian capital cave. intelligence report, say russia military has edge to it within 25 kilometers of the city center. the us says it'll rush another $200000000.00 worth of weaponry to ukraine and builds on the significant shipments it sent in the one up to the wall. and the kremlin has appointed a new acting man. the ukrainian city of melissa pal, video, released by ukraine is ordered to show russian soldiers abducting the cities, elected mer, even federal. but those were the headline. the news continues here now to 0 off the bottom line. thanks, thanks so much. oh i

hi, i'm steve pennington. i have a question. will ukraine become rushes forever war? and if so, what does that mean for the rest of the world? let's get to the bottom line. ah, it's been 2 weeks since russia started a new chapter in our history book, shaking up the world order by invading ukraine. now, folks around the world, they're asking the same questions. is this how world war 3 starts? could this war go nuclear? what's the end game in the mind of russian president vladimir putin? is there any way out that actually bring some sense of stability to the region and besides sanctioning russia and arming ukraine? what will the response of the west be? and though somebody test this question, when passions are really running, hi, how did we get here? those are the issues at stake. and we're fortunate today to be talking with one of the world's foremost experts on russia and global strategic competition. and it'll

leave in a senior research fellow in russia, in europe at the quincy institute for responsible stake crap, an author of ukraine and russia, a fraternal rivalry, i guess i should say. not so fraternal any more. i'm and it's also a real pleasure to be with you today, and let's just take it where we are today. you're one of the world leading realists . what is windermere putin's objective at this moment? where do you see things going to find out what fusion is? big asked putin, i don't live inside his brain. what i can say is that if the intention was to replace the ukrainian government with a pro russian government, then, you know, unless putin has truly gone crazy, the russians must realize that that simply will not work because of the strength and unity of the ukrainian resistance been any government put in by, by russia would lack all legitimacy and could only be kept in place by

a permanent russian army and permanent repression. indeed, i think that's also true of the russian speaking areas in the eastern side of ukraine. the only chance for russia, the only chance to take over those areas and use them as a base with ukraine. politically speaking, was russia could do that quickly and relatively painlessly. well, now it's going to ruin over a heap of ruins and innumerable civilian deaths. it really is not easy to see. you know, russia can win its political goals within ukraine. if this now not a conflict between major powers including us, what are your views? well, yes, it is becoming a proxy will, you know, as so many tragic completes during the cold war, one should not forget that there are voices in america including after all, the former us commander of nature, general breedlove, calling for

a no fly zone. well, that means sending the us as soon as i lot of the ukrainians to fight against russia. i mean, then we are coming very close indeed to a war between the world to greatest nuclear powers. but even, i mean, even a proxy will, will have dire implications, the european and global security. and of course, it will also mean the long running deep economic sanctions, which we can already see the effects both on global energy prices. but also, i mean, and this is what really worries me global food prices, because russia is the biggest global food exporter and ukraine is also nature food exporter that we know from the run up to the spring and other cases, the ability of inflation and food prices to cause deep and stability around the world, including and key us allies. so russia of course, has a colossal amount to lose and has begun to lose it as

a result of this war. but we shouldn't ignore the fact that the west and the rest of the world has a lot to lose as well. and it's all around the time when you and i 1st got to know each other, which was in the late 1900 ninety's. you wrote a book on ukraine and russia, which we just mention. and in there you write very clearly, this is, this is more than 20 years ago. any attempt by one side or the other by russia or the west to take ukraine fully into an alliance with either of them would be, would disastrously split ukraine. when we also read this statement from former us ambassador to russia. and now the current ca director william burns and this was folks, this is in the he leeks document. this is a classified cable from then, ambassador burns on the 1st of february, 2008. burns, writes, nato enlargement, particularly the ukraine remains and emotional and neurologic issue for roger russia. these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country into leading the violence or even some claim civil war,

which would force russia to decide whether to intervene. so we can look back at this time in it. and it's one of these uncomfortable discussions that perhaps, that come come later when we're seeing civilians killed in this conflict. we're seeing really the horrible kind of kinetic or this is not the sort of hybrid cyber war that i thought russia was investing. and this is old style nastiness, and, but it does raise the question of what our blind spots are. as we look at america strategic equities in the world and where what we're willing to pay for our principles, what is, what is the price of those principles? and i guess if you were advising president biden or nato at this moment, what would be some of the guidelines you would put in place? and it'll, i think one of the things i tell them is that the idea of a treaty of neutrality, which is not being demanded by russia, but which has been proposed by many of us for many years now. it's talked about in

the west as if this is simply a concession on the ukrainian side on our side. it isn't a treaty of neutrality as signed by finland and austria in different ways during the cold war. excluded them from joining nature, but it also excluded them from joining the war. so, packed a treaty of neutrality for ukraine would rule out ukraine joining nato. it would also rule out ukraine joining the ration union and any other russian lead alliance . so, you know, what we need to focus on is maintaining the sovereignty of ukraine. of course, i mean, russian domination of ukraine, as i suggested, you know, the appointment of the russian government is impossible now. and must, of course, be absolutely rejected. but it still seems to me that we can learn from the cold war and the examples of finland and austria, that

a treaty of neutrality is in fact, a perfectly good way out of this horrible war and not to distract. because the other thing you have to remember buttoned austria, i visited those countries during the cold war. you couldn't tell, they went part of the west. they couldn't be part of nato, but they were completely functioning. weston, free market democracies. i cannot understand why this aspect of things is not talked about more widely in, in the west and why why we could not negotiate a treaty of neutrality before this war. what is your says, you know more people in russia than anyone else? i know. are you able to talk with them converse, what's the sense of stress and does that create a cost per in the long run? i think, yes, i mean, at the moment you know, ordinary russians, quite frankly, have been to a great degree, brainwashed, by state propaganda in russia. but as you say, as the body bags come back as the economic costs rise and living standards decline,

i think that unrest against bruton is bound to grow. now you can already see deep knees in sections of the russian leads to interesting categories here. one is some of the, the biggest business men have and people by the way, who been very close to boot and very supportive of booting publicly called for an end to end the war and warned of its economic consequences. the other interesting thing is that some of the children of the russian li, sooner who been educated in the west at western lifestyles, many western friends, they had started to come out against the war. and in both these cases, and because these people understand much, much better than the massive population, just how much russia is going to suffer from this. so i think over time, it will be yes. i mean, it will really undermine putin's rule. but the problem is that the decision making circle around putin in the people he listens to, has narrowed so far,

particularly since coven again, that it now consists of barely half a dozen people. we talk about the russian elite in general, we talk about rationale, gods colon molly got to actually wrong. these big russian business men had no political power anymore. they don't play a part in deciding on issues of war and peace. and so while i think it very likely in the long run that put in, you know, will be removed. it will be, i fear a long and difficult process because it will mean getting, not just of him, but of his in a circle as well. now, one can imagine deals whereby this is done, you know, guaranteeing that personal safety guarantee in the family's property. but there are, you know, there are toughen, resolute bunch. i think they will absent of a peace settlement and

a peace settlement that can create some appearance of success for russia and for then i think the prepared to fight on for a long time. but but i was surprised at all about hooton's hasty, dennis in waving his nuclear arsenal around i was, i was very surprised because seem to indicate to me ah, a concern about the capabilities of his conventional forces. what are your take on that, and what do you sense in your knowledge of, you know, mutual assured destruction and, you know, nuclear conflict is going on there. and what are your thoughts about the russian military after seeing it for nearly 2 weeks? well, it's clear that things are not going nearly as well as booted and the russian government homed. and i think here the, the key point is that the ukrainians have done what the chechens did in 1995 and in 1999. they have retreated, if you like, into the ukranian cities and they are prepared to politan street by street. and of

course, this is disastrous, the rushes political goals because it will lead to the destruction of a city. but urban warfare, of course, does also act as america is found, sometimes partly to negate your superiority in weapons and 5. now, as to putin waving the nuclear weapon, i think that's the obvious. he's trying to scare the west and the europeans in particular into limiting their, their support, the ukraine. i do not think that he intends to use this weapon. but of course, the risks are if the united states introduced a no fly zone with american croft operating out of bases in poland, then i have very little doubt that russia would attack those bases with miss alt. then we will get into something which, you know, throughout the cold war lead as on both sides weren't so careful to avoid, which is an actual direct military trash between the 2 nuclear,

so superpowers of the world. but of course, even a long running guerrilla war, supported from the west supply across poland, would give russia, you know, such an incentive to disrupt europe and the west in every way possible. what i also feel there is that an insurgency in ukraine because, you know, i, i traveled with the majority and enough canister in the 1980s. and i studied the history of insurgency. there is an almost automatic tendency in the circumstances for the most extreme and hard line sections of the insurgents to come to the full in this case. this is extreme ukrainian ethnic nationalists. that seems to me that the only thing that could drive the russian speaking population of eastern southern ukraine back into the arms of a russia, which frankly,

by now they to test would be if they came under under threat from an extreme ukrainian nationalist who hate not just russia as a state, but also russians, including ukrainian russians as a people. so i think this is something that we have to be very, very careful about. well, i want to go back to some you just said was very thing that i talk to some senior polish government officials recently who said it is inevitable that poland will become as pakistan was to afghanistan, we will drive supply and help direct and insurgency. and in that case, in ukraine, and in that case, wouldn't russia then, as you just said, i think step in to try to do something against pulling the which is a nato member. yes, i mean that, that, that is precisely, it nature then comes very close to conflict with russia. i mean, that is why i and others are so strongly advocating an attempt, however,

difficult to bring the passion, early peace settlement to this conflict. and the other question i have is, you know, we're going to look back at this moment and i'm wondering if someone's going to have you. and i both know the big new present sky, the late 0, big new present sky who, who sort of took credit for, ah, the soviet invasion in afghanistan saying he helped lead, lead them into afghanistan and into their own vietnam. the question, there is a ran study that was published a few years ago that basically said, perhaps the smart strategy was to find ways to impose costs on russia. and this, this study said that if you could unbalance, if you could do cost imposing options could unbalanced and over extend russia. such cost imposing options could place new burdens on russia, ideally heavier burdens than would be imposed in the us for imposing his options. now, i don't believe that the study actually endorsed, taking this step in ukraine, but it's going to raise the question at some level on whether russia is now the one

that stuck in its quagmire. that it's a good distraction to have russian power. ah, and attention focused in something like this. is there any sense to that logic at all? well, i don't think so because in the cold war the soviet union was aligned against the united states on so many different fronts, challenging american interests in africa, in the middle east, in central america today, at least in the greater middle east, including afghanistan objectively speaking on the key issue, russia is on america's side against isis, against so many islamist extremism in russia is not aligned against and by the way, western africa as well. what may dislike greatly the, the history and nature of the, of the wagner, private security group. but the fact is that in western africa, they're fighting against the same people that we'll islamist insurgence. so this

isn't like the cold war a toll in that way this, this, ukraine is not a distraction from somewhere else. ukraine is about ukraine. mean, the other thing that i really do think amidst all this moralizing language that we should remember is that these proxy was during the cold war in afghanistan in gold . in central america waged over the corpses. in india, china obviously waged over the corpses of innumerable local people who died and suffered in these conflicts the. and of course then there is the irony of history. as i say, i was with the merger, had enough gun is less than 20 years after the soviets withdrew and the communist government napkins. tom fell. america was trying to recruit former communist officers in afghanistan to fight in the afghan national army against the taliban, who were the linear descendants of the majority who we had supported. so in a, please, let's think about what,

what's gonna happen to ukraine in the process and not turn this into some new version of the cold war. and i told you more than almost anyone i know have a foot several feet in different continents around the world. but you know, america, well, we worked together years ago at the new america foundation. and i know you know, this country right now. you have some republican leaders in the united states senate. you have a former us president that keep lauding vladimir putin as a, as a savvy genius. you have real ambivalence through a lot of the american public about ukraine and what it represents at all to american interest. not looking at the broader nato parts of this, but there is a kind of trend inside the united states. folks where i'm, whether you call it america 1st, but a sort of tendency to disregard the benefits that come from the kind of american engagement in the world. and i'd be interested in what you think about american public opinion going a different direction than,

than we've just articulated with what's happening with military resolve and nato. well, i think anyone who expresses admiration any more for the person's intelligence is crazy. frankly, i used to admire him as a savvy operator, but clearly, i mean, what he's done in ukraine proves, recklessness, foolishness, extreme ambition and, and incapacity. it would seem now to listen to intelligence and intelligent advice . so, i mean, i really think anyone who still talking about putin as a strategic genius has not been reading the need or looking at the pictures. but as far as americans who died, the wisdom of america becoming engaged in really heavy commitments and really cannot make sacrifices for ordinary americans as part of a struggle against russia in ukraine. i think that is, you know,

a very strong segment of opinion, which i think is likely to grow if it, if russia's intentions are to subjugation rule of ukraine. and i think you will see real, you know, solidarity not us within america book between america and europe over this. but if it becomes a question of waging and on, and i'm ending proxy war, basically in order to give up, to hold on to a principle of nature membership ukraine, which nobody believes can happen anyway. since nature will not fight fee crane and to insist on russian withdrawals from crimea, which will never happen. every russian who has liberal russians, i talk to say that that is impossible. well then i think you might well see, you know, a backlash against this in western opinion. so, i mean, my feeling is, i totally support the harshest economic sanctions against russia. but they must be

tied to the aim of bringing about an early end. this war. not just for the sake of the ukrainians, but also because i think that over time this might also lead to a serious frame of the western lines. let me also ask you an a toll about the recent p separate. so there's been one set of peace efforts between representatives of the landscape government and russia meeting and bella, ruth, but there's also been this interesting israeli track that we've just learned about . be interested to know what you think about these 2 tracks, particularly the israeli one, whether you think there's any prospect of achieving what you've suggested, which is an early piece in a new equilibrium. and in all of this, well, i would be delighted if the israelis would broker a piece process. the russian ukraine in foreign ministers of agreed to meet in turkey later this week, which is also of course neutral territory between the 2. it seems to me that if russia's principles for peace are sincere and in

a rush or is not still determined to impose a pro russian government on, on ukraine than in principle, these ought to be negotiable. as we say, a treaty of neutrality zelinski is into the us, and in any case it meets logical sense recognition of russian sovereignty over crimea. russia is not going to abandon crimea perhaps as thomas graham from us diplomat in moscow. and others have suggested that would be a way of legitimizing this internationally by a referendum, under international supervision. the russian foreign minister leverage has suggested that demilitarization, which of the russian demand might only mean ukraine, giving up long range missiles and russia. in other words, this would really be very close to the deal that ended the ordeal which ended the cuban missile crisis. in other words, not to crime,

giving up its own on forces. that question, of course, but a limitation on certain kinds of weapons and on denotes vacation. well, that is very difficult. we're not sure exactly what it means. in my view, what the ukrainians should do, particularly because after all, because russian speakers and russians in ukraine have demonstrated their loyalty to ukraine in this war and deserve some credits and reward for that. what ukraine should do is give up its legislation, which is attempting to drive rush the russian language out of public life in ukraine, and guarantee the status of russian as a minority language under the russian constitution under the ukrainian constitution . i don't know, of course, if any of this would work, but if there is a desire to peace on both sides. and if this process receives the full backing of the west as it should, then i do think that there should be

a possibility of an agreement along these lines without deluding ourselves. i'm still pleased that we can end on a somewhat of a fortunate positive possibility. if not likelihood, given everything is going on and it'll leave in from the quince, the institute for responsible st. statecraft. thank you so much for joining us. it was a pleasure. thank you. so what's the bottom line? the west can't pretend. it's not indirect conflict with russia anymore. the yachts of rushes billionaires are being impounded and huge. corporations are pulling their investments airspace is being blocked in america, supplying ukraine with weapons. so it's already a conflict between the great powers and there's no going back. a lot of people, unfortunately are going to die while russia and the west decide the next moves. in this new cold war, the world is more connected, but it's a network of fear rather than of trust. everyone loses when fear and anxiety, torpedo, the global trust, incense of common purpose, needed to tackle our global challenges. and that's the bottom line,

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my name is bingo. sh. esl and this is my job. my, my gear on al jazeera ah hello, i'm darren jordan dough on the top stories here on al jazeera russian forces are continuing. they're pushed to encircle the cranium. capital keith intelligence reports a rush. us military has edge to within 25 kilometers of the city center. and a large scale attack could happen soon. united states of announced little rush, another $200000000.00 worth of weaponry to ukraine. it builds on a significant shipments it sent in the run up to the war. rushes military says the situation and some ukrainian cities is catastrophic. but during its latest.