fresh tear, but from the ash his people here hope of the future in tune the most ins, former glory, thumb of a job without the theora, most of the old city. billions of hinders around the world, a celebrating holy, a festival of colors. it marks the beginning of the spring harvest season devotees through colored powder or water at each other only celebrations in india with scaled back over the past 2 years to to the corona virus pandemic. ah, good to have you with us. hello, adrian sort of can hear it though how the add lines on al jazeera, the mayor of levine in western ukraine, says that several russian rockets of hit areas near the cities airport. the city so far escape the worst of the bombardment seen elsewhere in the country. al jazeera zane bus robbie is there where about 10 or 15 minutes drive to the town center. another 10 or 15 minutes about 2 or 3 kilometers behind me is where the target was

that was hit by those russian missiles. levine is in incredibly significant city, has taken on a larger role since the conflict. it was the cultural capital of the country for so long, but it has also become a hub for humanitarian relief coming in from poland and other countries as well as people fleeing. the conflict in the east are coming to levine and then either re basing here, or heading out further into poland and, and further into europe. so to main hub, for a lot of people that are fleeing the violence of population of around 1000000 people went up to almost double according the city officials. in the last few weeks rescued cruise in the besieged city of mario paul say that they found survivors in a theater hit by a russian air strike. hundreds of civilians were reported to be in an underground shelter there. it's unclear how many casualties there are. 8 agencies described the humanitarian situation in mary apple as apocalyptic with around 350000 ukrainians, sheltering from russian attacks the presidents of china and the u. s. a few to hold

their 1st direct talk since november. friday's phone call fullest growing us concern of china's ties with russia and beijing stance on the war in great britain is sending an anti and missile system to poland, as nato moves to increase security in eastern europe. the announcement was made by the you case, defense secretary ben wallace. during a visit to the polish capital, warsaw, poland requested the sky sabbath system, which will remain under the control of around $100.00 british personnel who are also being deployed. argentina senate has approved a deal to refinance of $45000000000.00 debts with the international monetary fund. and he argentinians that were against borrowing more money. they've been holding regular protests for more than a year. now. those the headlines bonnie is here and i'll to 0 coming up right after inside story. next with some of the world's largest presents me here provides much of the uranium that fuels year. it's nuclear power.

but at what cost? people in power follow the uranium trail from nisa to the source of the mediterranean and investigate the devastating effects on the planets and all those who inhabit the industries part. the care of you alien tail on al jazeera. should ukraine declare its neutrality as a way to stop the war? with fighting into a 4th week, the kremlin is considering the neutral status compromise to stop its attacks. will the ukrainians surrender to the pressure from moscow? this is inside story. ah. hello and welcome to the program. i'm a hammer, jim,

jim. it's been 3 weeks since russia launch is invasion of ukraine. ukraine cities are being bombarded from land, sea, and air. as the destruction worsens, the warring sides are discussing a ceasefire. both sides are warning of significant differences, but one possibility is ukraine declaring its neutrality like sweden or austria and the ukrainians were announcing their ambitions to join nato, as well as promising not to host foreign military bases or weapons. in exchange, ukraine would get protection from allies such as the u. s. britain and turkey. so far ukraine's leaders have rejected russia's proposals. ukraine is now in a direct state of war with russia. as a result, the model can only be ukrainian and only on legally verified security guarantees. even the in cbs in india received initially, sheila, through the problems which are fundamental for russia for all future of your current neutrality, ukraine's demilitarization. we indiana situation we way and we are ready to discuss

it, talks national, our country lead is best to organize in whole these talks understanding that every possibility is to sift people but to what we see time. and again, is that the key regime which was assigned by east west in masters to create an anti russian offensive, is empty friend to the fate of the crane. and people at the human mind will bring in our guests in a moment. first, let's look at the timeline of tensions between russia and ukraine. ukraine was part of the soviet union until its collapse in 1991. since gaining independence ukrainians have suffered political upheaval at home and tension with russia. in 1994 ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal and exchange for a commitment from russia to respect its independence and sovereignty. moscow has since been concerned with keeping ukraine from joining the nato military alliance mass protest. 8 years ago, toppled president victory on a coach that happened after he refused to sign a trade deal with european union. as he sought closer ties with moscow. rushes

armed forces responded by annexed the crimean peninsula and backing a separate his rebellion in eastern ukraine. ah, all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests joining us from outside of keven ukraine. peters a my of executive director of the erasure democracy initiative. that's a non profit organization which promotes democracy and rule of law in former communist countries. from russia's capital moscow, pablo fell, going our defense and military analysts for nevaeh's, at a newspaper and from germany's capital berlin, andreas on lund analyst at the stockholm center for eastern european studies. that's part of the swedish institute of international affairs. thanks so much to you all for joining us. we appreciate your time to down inside story peter, let me start with you today with all that you are seeing and experiencing on the ground there in ukraine. when you hear that these negotiations are going on, that russia wants to see ukraine, declare it's neutrality. do you think that that is something that is actually

feasible right now? well, so far going by the track record of the way the russians have communicated their intentions. i would not hold my breath in the weeks running up to rushes invasion on february 24th. we heard assurances almost on a daily basis that russia had no intention of invading it. then a few days before the actual invasion, russia, and now that it was withdrawing troops from new claims borders, which never happened obviously. and then we were fully in the war situation with russia having leased its terror against all of the plants territory. pretty much what i'm seeing right now is, you know, i suspect may be a small screen smoke screen for russia's real intention. and that is to be group to

try to restore its morale of its fighting troops. because it's reported to be very low. and to try to storm give a 2nd time, it's simply not feasible for me right now to imagine a vitamin would be withdrawing his troops and then claiming the already existing status quo in ukraine is a victory. you know, there's a sunk cost fallacy where you know, having expended this much blood and treasure vladimir put, and probably think of that kind of scenario as tantamount doings political, or even physical death. so i'm skeptical, even though i do believe that eventually some sort of a compromise diplomatically must be found in order for this to stop. andre, as it's being reported that ukraine and russia are making progress on some type of potential see fire. do you think that this is achievable?

it will depend on the assessment of the so called correlational courses in moscow. how was code will assessed the continuing costs and risks of this confrontation, but the ukraine is also the associated costs and risks in, in for its economy because of sanctions. that is very difficult to say how this assessment goes, but it also clearly depends on the west and measures on the degree of sanctions, the degree of military support for ukraine. but i would not exclude that at some point, maybe not now we, but we may come to this point. and then the exact relation of this neutrality i, which come to the, for the problem here of ukraine is not so much russia actually, but is rob the west in that ukraine has since 2008, an official membership perspective from nature. but it has not in bonnets since

then to this membership. it has not received the membership action plan. it has entered a few additional programs of nature. but in substance, nothing has actually happened. and that will probably continue with this situation . and under the impression of, of the sad story, the yoke gilson. i'm already saying the lensky has recently indicated that she may actually be ready to negotiate this, this issue about neutrality, about not any longer entering nature. but then i think ukraine will try to get some other mutual aid agreement problem from the west that really go beyond the budapest memorandum of 994. it will bomb some sort of real security assurances, real security guarantees at that go beyond the sudden of launch

machine, a pack from 99 before puzzle when russia demands that ukraine declare neutrality. what exactly does that mean? what does that mean for president putin? what would he like to see? well, well, the quinn has explained that russia is not so much seeking ukrainian founder since ukraine is already right now. a neutral country officially, but the russia once iron clad guarantees ukraine will never become. and they don't member or, and maybe more importantly, that you created no weapons of any sorts. can appear on ukrainian territory that could potentially threaten russia. because gramlin and russian president, they can be not member of nato, doesn't matter if they have any way. some american missiles or something,

these american presumed missiles that thread now are not really in existence, but may appear several in several years or something are very important point for president bush and personally. and for the crown one that seeing that they could be deployed in ukraine and can hit targets in the moscow area very swiftly without the rush and we, there should be able to become air war or high in the bunker or something. so that's what right now, russia once it went through the ukraine to be under russian. so sort of control and security matters, that rush, whatever decisive voice there. and also, of course, very important for russia is that the new ukranian government or the old ukrainian government, recognized the crimea, is a part of russia recognize the independence of these small states in the bus. and

the general one, what russia wants to see ukraine and the centralized buffer state between itself and europe, a buffer state that eventually may become if not all, with big parts of it. a world you re uniform that will be in the process of gradually reunification was a rush. peter, the last time that i spoke with you on this program, you were in a suit and tie we were talking about potential diplomatic moves. things were very different for you and for so many other ukrainians. i'm. i'm speaking to you to day . you're wearing camouflage. i. i've heard you in various interviews, talk about wanting to take up the fight. i'm from your perspective. if president zalinski were to see to these demands, if ukraine were to declare itself neutral, how would you and how would so many other ukrainians take that? a 1000000 had even a question or a 1000000 rouble question,

if you will. the neutrality idea in and of itself is not necessarily a negative one for ukraine. there's the, the much maligned, determines, and linda's ation does not necessarily have to be so finland has turned out to be quite well one of the most prosperous, least corrupt nations on the planet. so now as you mentioned, there is a model of austria being discussed, sweden, all of them are good and well, the question is, once you demilitarized ukraine, that's the extension of neutrality bible just mentioned. and what sort of security guarantees could you rely on in having the president of the 1994 when the best number was signed? as you also mentioned in the lead up to this conversation, and russia clearly did not feel beholden to it since 2014. it's been this long kind of one long period of aggression against the crate. so that is

one element to consider. the 2nd element of this is of by the a lot of the light in the bullet image. and i have the mandate to promise anything such as signing off on the russian sovereignty over crimea. and that eastern ukraine wouldn't notice, and that's why he's sort of trying to box ukrainians into the corner. knowing that the st. the, my don, you know me for soleski out of our especially now that ukraine in its 4th week, had expended so much blood and treasure fighting off the world's 2nd largest army. to sign off on something like this was very, very risky for zalesky salt. once again, you know, ukraine understand that will have to be some sort of a formula worked out. i think it's already come pretty close to acknowledging that nato will be pretty much a no goes old. meaning, you know, it's ready to sort of part with it. you have ever joining nato,

but in the absence of nature, there has to be some sort of iron clad security guarantee by several parties. turkey us have been mentioned to where ukraine would feel confident, you know that it could do that puzzle. we all know how difficult it is when a ceasefire is declared in certain situations to ensure that the situation on the ground can be stabilized. that's a very different kind of matters. i want to ask you, if a cease fire is declared, if these negotiations get to the point where there is some kind of a truce, could the situation on the ground be stabilized at present? i don't believe that's possible. it's a kind of salon, a situation with ukrainians and russians intermixed troops. i mean, in different parts of the ukraine, there's 5 rush in the fence of happening and there is no straightforward

front line one has and kind of maintaining a ceasefire. there is virtually impossible a ceasefire could be only if it's immediate withdraw of russian troops or ukrainian surrendering. i mean, it should be followed almost immediately by measures to the couple of the are the fighting people from both sides. and that's right now, the problem, because a russian withdraw say, is that we greatest demanding antebellum will draw to the positions of 24th of february this year, which will swipe with russia won't take. and any kind of russia keeping some kind of piece is that if there's already taken, that will mean that there's going to be more fighting. right now. i don't really see a ceasefire or an agreement emerging. both sides are talking about wanting to have it because everyone wants peace. and no one wants to be the bad though,

and who says no peace and sorry. but in fact, every positions of the 2 sides right now are almost incompatible. i'm afraid that there's going to be continued bullshit for the time being. it's going to be decided for the time being not by diplomats, but by soldiers fighting with arms in the field. andreas, i just wanted to take a step back for a moment and see if you could try to walk our viewers through just how big a geopolitical shift is happening, especially in europe right now as a result of russia's invasion of ukraine. i think it's a fundamental shift that goes far beyond the east european region. russia is going to be a very different actor afterwards. i think the queue is going to change. nato is going to change the biggest change that i see and the service change. and is

that true with the urban international regime for the prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons? because the most scandalous, perhaps, aspects of this entire conflict is that it's defined, of course, by the presence of nuclear weapons on the russian side, and the absence of nuclear weapons on the ukrainian side. and the scandal here is that russia does not only have nuclear weapons, it is also explicitly allowed to have you clear weapons by the nuclear non proliferation treaty. and ukraine is, it does not only not have nuclear weapons, but it's also explicitly forbidden to have you cleared weapons. and the most grotesque aspect of this is, of course, they knew that ukraine was for a short period of time. in the early 909. he's the 3rd largest nuclear weapon states of the world and had more nuclear ammunition and warheads

than china, france, and great britain together. it could not control most of these weapons, but anyway, it had a huge arsenal back then gave it away, gave it to russia and 20 years later, with the annexation of crimea. it was, it was punished for this. and this is going to make actors and politician and experts diplomats around the world, not only in europe or in asia, but around the world. think twice about their security, about the validity of international law, about how they can protect themselves and how they may also be able to snatch a territory that they want to get from a neighboring peter. despite the repeated, please from president zalinski and so many other ukrainians, nato has continued to refuse, imposing a no fly zone over ukraine. do you think that at some point that might change,

that pressure would build? so substantially, from possibly even within nato member states, that there could be a shift in that stance. many of us are tempted to speculate on that. one has to be careful not to be just to, to, to come across as a war monger because we all understand the implications of the war and i was own, we understand the european concern, the global concern that, that would lead to a direct confrontation with a nuclear power. so having said that, i would say that the following, the logic of this escalation and once again, serious questions about the rationality, vladimir, i spent 2 years in a bunker hiding from coal. it is apparently not hiding from his own officials on possibly afraid of my assassination of them. one me wonder if he is still with us in this realm that in this world rather than the world of his own invention. and

so this is a very dangerous moment, obviously no one wants to escalate any further. but at the same time, there is an understanding on the part of the nato in the us. that a $53.00 equating is something larger than a 5 just for ukraine. sovereignty is fired for the western credibility and legitimacy. having said that, you know, what's the next best option? the next best option is for the nato to enable ukrainians to try to force their own semblance of an old wise zone with air defense systems, where the missiles and yes, with fighter jet something that the polar than us have come very close to deciding on. there's a snaffle now, i think laskey speech to congress yesterday was a very serious contribution to that decision being made, considering that joe biden is now under pressure from the opposition of from members of his own party to deliver on the promise you. it's possible if russia

were to manage to take keys. what exactly does that mean? does that mean that there is no more chance for diplomacy? does that mean there's automatic regime change? does that mean negotiations continue? what happens if that were to occur? i don't think that russia has right now, the capacity to actually a successful a key if it's a very big city and the russian forces that are there are to the north of the city are just simply not big enough. but russia can bombard kia which you didn't do up to now, but they can begin the kind of see gen, a bombardment, which would make life very miserable and very dangerous in d. f. again, i'm not sure that that's right. now, going to happen immediately. it seems that the russian main military thrust is going to be to do all possible to swiftly capture murray or bowl and

maybe put more pressure on the co. i've russia, as of right now, running low on reserves, socially and actually moving more forces to north of here. i mean, maybe if they had them, they can't keep them there. there are very enormous logistical problems, especially with those of paratroopers that are deployed there. so i don't thank you for it. now is on the cards, of course things may change if both equal decisions are made in russia, but nothing or what apartment is possible. an effective, a swift defensive to take the city non it's, i mean it's bigger than muscle and it will take, i mean, i don't know a months a year, maybe to go through it and turn it into a pile of total route rumble, and then take it in with it that way, i don't think rush is ready for that. i don't think it has the capacity. andreas,

from your vantage point, is there any acceptable off ramp than to the conflict that can be offered to president putin right now? i don't think that it actually depends that much on what is offered because my, my impression from the russian propaganda machine. but it can basically provide the sort of off ramp or 14 in almost any way. if there's any confession that ukraine can make symbolic over on some colleagues that will, that could potentially be already enough for protein to withdraw if he wants to withdraw. that's, i think be the crucial question. and as i said, well that the costs and risks of this entire operation will have to raise and the west is the only the only the actor can raise your costs by

imposing more severe sanctions by delivering have your veterans. and i agree with peter that maybe ukraine does not even need to a no fly zone imposed by nature of what a just need needs is the right material. the right weapons, perhaps also volunteers or better routes. more veterans or army veterans from patches on the nato countries that would come to the international legion most urban ukraine that already exists and would been operate and, and provide the logistics support for let's say an aircraft weapon. peter, we only have about a minute left. i just want to ask you very quickly, are you hearing from fellow ukrainians? any sense of hope that the negotiations that are going on right now might actually yield some kind of meaningful cease fire or into the conflict?

i don't think the gradient or ukrainians now that i talk with are putting any of their hopes in diplomatic or right a process they're putting their hopes in the result of the crania step show to fight for their country and to fight against the enemy. this is as black and white as carpets go. and the sort of national mobilization i've seen and the rise of the national spirit is unlike anything you queen has knowledge since the 1940 since world war 2. all right, we're, we have run out of time. so we're gonna have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much. all of our guest peters on my a pablo felon howard, and andreas on london. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also during the conversation on twitter, our handle is at a j inside story from emergent german, the whole team here pfeifer now

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al jazeera. when ever you oh, levine comes under attack from russian forces. we'll have a live report from the ukranian city, which has been seen as a refuge for loose fleeing the world. a hello, i'm adrian. sort of this is al jazeera, alive from doha. also coming up residential building in a suburb of keith is hit by a russian missile will be live at receiving thousands remain trapped to the besieged city of maria poll. we speak to one family that was 8.