all caught, a few months later, nasa has rolled out its massive new rocket in preparation for a final round of tests. the spacious launch system has an a ryan spacecraft on its top. it's part of nasa's awesome. it's mission that aims to return american astronauts to the moon for the 1st time in nearly 50 years. the autumn is one will be unmanned and will take the spacecraft around the moon and back. ah, it is good to meet with us. hello, adrian, for they can hear it though. all the headlines on al jazeera, the mayor of levin west of ukraine says with several washing rockets of hit areas near the airport. the city is so far escape the worst of the bombardment seen elsewhere in the country. the ukrainian capital keith has also been hit by russian shelley overnight, a residential building in b padilla school district. the city was hit by part of a rush missile emergency crews have been searching for survivors. russian warships

have been shelling, odessa, which is bracing for an invasion. ukraine's 3rd largest city is on the black sea coast. that is home to more than a 1000000 people rush us foreign minister. so gay lover office told the government's r t channel that the u. s. is trying to shape the world in its own image. there are no players who would know accept the global village under the american sheriff and the china, india, brazil argent in the next speaker. i'm sure this countries do not want to be just in the position of an uncle, sam, orders them something, and they say yes sir. and of course russia is not in the category of countries who would be, who would be ready to do. so the u. k. has ordered the r t news channel off the air . the kremlin says the decision to revoke it's broadcast license in the u. k is

madness. britain's regulator of com says that r t can't be considered a fit, and proper broadcaster, the channels coverage of the crane war was subject to 29 separate investigations. and what critics describe a state sponsored propaganda in other he is argentina. senate has approved a deal to refinance a $45000000000.00 debt with the international monetary fund ahead of the vote. thousands of protest as gathered in the capitol point us out as many are against borrowing more money that have been holding regular demonstration style for more than a year. constitutional court judges in peru of voted to release former president alberto fuji maury from prison. the 83 year old is serving a 25 year sentence for murder and corruption. the court reinstated the partner that food you already received 5 years ago and those bad lives, but he's continues here on al jazeera after inside story. coming up next. argentine is, was life is being jeopardized by industrialized agriculture and uncontrolled cattle

grazing to ease abode takes. you want to jeremy, into the e, better national park to explore what's been done to protect nature and meet some of those determined to when can we wilding argentina tool to al jazeera in the fields . should ukraine declare it's neutrality as a way to stop the war? with fighting into a 4th week, the kremlin is considering the neutral status compromise to stop its attacks. will the ukrainians surrender to the pressure from moscow? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm a hammer, jim, jim. it's been 3 weeks since russia launched his invasion of ukraine. ukraine cities are being bombarded from land, sea, and air. as the destruction worsens,

the warring sides are discussing a cease fire both sides or warning of significant differences. but one possibility is ukraine declaring its neutrality like sweden or austria and the ukrainians were announcing their ambitions to join nato, as well as promising not to host foreign, military bases or weapons. in exchange, ukraine would get protection from allies such as the u. s. britain and turkey, so far ukraine's leaders have rejected russia's proposals. ukraine is now in a direct state of war with russia. as a result, the model can only be ukrainian and only on legally verified security guarantees. even the principal linda received initial, alluded sheila through the problems which are fundamental for russia for all future of your current neutrality. ukraine's demilitarization, we indiana situation we way and we are ready to discuss it, talks natural, our country deed is best to organize in whole these talks understanding that every possibility is to sift people but to what we see time. and again,

is that the key regime which was assigned by east west in masters to create an anti russian offensive, is empty friend to the fate of the crane and people are going to see, like we'll bring in our guests in a moment. first, let's look at the timeline of tensions between russia and ukraine. ukraine was part of the soviet union until its collapse in 1991. since gaining independence ukrainians have suffered political upheaval at home and tension with russia. in 1994 ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal and exchange for a commitment from russia to respect its independence and sovereignty. moscow has since been concerned with keeping ukraine from joining the nato military alliance mass protest. 8 years ago, toppled president victory on a coach that happened after he refused to sign a trade deal with european union. as he sought closer ties with moscow. brushes, armed forces responded by an axing the crimean peninsula and backing a separatist rebellion in eastern ukraine. ah,

all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests joining us from outside of keith and ukraine . peters a my of executive director of the erasure democracy initiative. that's a non profit organization which promotes democracy and rule of law in former communist countries. from russia's capital moscow, pablo fell, going our defense and military analysts for nevaeh's, at a newspaper and from germany's capital berlin, andreas on lund analyst at the stockholm center for eastern european studies. that's part of the swedish institute of international affairs. thanks so much to you all for joining us. we appreciate your time today on inside story. peter, let me start with you today with all that you are seeing and experiencing on the ground there in ukraine. when you hear that these negotiations are going on, that russia wants to see ukraine, declare it's neutrality. do you think that that is something that is actually feasible right now? well, so far going by the track record of the way, the russians,

if communicated their intentions. i would not hold my breath in the weeks running up to rushes invasion on february 24th. we heard assurances almost on a daily basis that russia had no intention of invading it. then a few days before the actual invasion, russia, and now that it was withdrawing troops from new claims borders, which never happened obviously. and then we were fully in the war situation with russia having least its terror against all of the territory. pretty much what i'm seeing right now is, you know, i suspect may be a small screen, smoke screen for a rushes real intention. and that is to be group to try to restore its morale of its fighting troops because it's reported to be very low. and to try to

storm get a 2nd time, it's simply not feasible for me right now to imagine the vitamin would be withdrawing his troops and then claiming the already existing status quo in ukraine is a victory. you know, there's a sunk cost fallacy where you know, having expended this much blood and treasure vladimir putting probably think of that kind of scenario as tantamount doings political, or even physical death. so i'm skeptical, even though i do believe that eventually some sort of a compromise diplomatically must be found in order for this to stop andreas, it's being reported that ukraine and russia are making progress on some type of potential ceasefire. do you think that this is achievable? it will depend on the assessment of the so called correlational courses in most co, how most code will assess the continuing costs and risks of this

confrontation. but the ukraine is also the associated costs and risks in, in for its economy because of sanctions. and that is very difficult to say how this assessment goes. but it also clearly depends on the western measures on the degree of sanctions. the degree of military support for ukraine, but i would not exclude that at some point, maybe not, i'll, we, but we may come to this point. and then the exact relation of this neutrality i could come to the for the problem here of ukraine is not so much russia actually, but is rob the west in that ukraine has since 2008 an official membership perspective from nature. but it has not in bonds since then to this membership. it has not received the membership action plan. it has entered

a few additional programs of nature. but in substance, nothing has actually happened and that will probably continue this situation. and under the impression of, of the sad story, the yoke nelson. i'm already saying lensky has recently indicated that he may actually be ready to negotiate this, this issue about neutrality, about not any longer entering nato, but then i think ukraine will try to get some other mutual aid agreement problem from the west that really go beyond the budapest memorandum of 994. it will bomb some sort of real security assurances, real security guarantees at that go beyond the sudden of launch machine, a pack from 99 before puzzle when russia demands that ukraine declare

neutrality. what exactly does that mean? what does that mean for president putin? what would he like to see? well, well, the kremlin has explained that russia is not so much seeking ukrainian founder since ukraine is already right now. a neutral country officially, but the russia once iron clad guarantees of ukraine will never become. and they don't member or, and maybe more importantly, that you created no weapons of any sorts. can appear on ukrainian territory that could potentially threaten russia. because gramlin and russian president, they can be not member of nato, doesn't matter. they can have any way, some american missiles or something. these american presumed missiles at red now are not really in existence, but may appear several and several years or something are very important point for

president bush and personally. and for the crown one that seeing that they could be deployed in ukraine and can hit targets in the moscow area very swiftly without the, the russian leader should be able to become air war and or high in the bunker or something. so that's what right now, russia once it went through the ukraine to be under russian. so sort of control and security matters, the crush would have a decisive voice there. and also, of course, very important for russia is that the new ukranian government or the old ukrainian government, recognized the crimea, is a part of russia recognize the independence of these small states. what's in the don bus. and the general once what russia wants to see ukraine and the centralized buffer state between itself and europe, a buffer state that eventually may become if not all,

with big parts of it. a world you re you and if you will be in the process of gradually reunion. keisha was rush peter the last time that i spoke with you on this program, you were in a suit and tie we were talking about potential diplomatic moves. things were very different for you and for so many other ukrainians. i'm. i'm speaking to you to day . you're wearing camouflage. i. i've heard you in various interviews, talk about wanting to take up the fight from your perspective. if president zalinski were to see to these demands, if ukraine were to declare itself neutral, how would you and how would so many other ukrainians take that? there is a 1000000 that had even a question or a 1000000 rugle question. if you will. the neutrality idea in and of itself is not necessarily a negative one for ukraine. there's the, the much maligned term. some linda's ation does not necessarily have to be so

finland has started out to be quite well one of the most prosperous, least corrupt nations on the planet. so now as you mentioned those a model of austria being discussed, sweden, all of them are good and well, the question is when you demilitarised your claim, that's the extension of neutrality bible just mentioned. and then what sort of security guarantees could you rely on in having the president of the 1994 when the best number of signed? as you also mentioned in the lead up to this conversation and russia clearly did not feel beholden to it since 2014. it's been this long kind of one long period of aggression against the crate. so that is one element to consider . the 2nd element of this is of by the light of mr. level, that image has the mandate to promise live it wouldn't anything such as signing off

on the russian sovereignty over crimea. and the eastern ukraine wouldn't notice. and that's why you sort of try to box you bring in into the corner, knowing that the st. the my dog, you know me forced to lensky out of our especially now that you crazy and it's 4th week have expended so much blood and treasure fighting off the world's 2nd largest army, to sign off on something like this was very, very risky for july. you felt once again, you know, ukraine understand that will have to be some sort of a formula worked out. i think it's already come pretty close to acknowledging that nato will be pretty much a no goes old, meaning it's graded to sort of part with it yet, ever joining nato. but in the absence of nature, there has to be some sort of iron clad security guarantee by several parties. turkey us have been mentioned to where ukraine would feel confident,

you know that it could do that puzzle. we all know how difficult it is when a ceasefire is declared in certain situations to ensure that the situation on the ground can be stabilized. that's a very different kind of matters. i want to ask you if a ceasefire is declared, if these negotiations get to the point where there is some kind of a truce, could the situation on the ground be stabilized at present? i don't believe that's possible. it's a kind of salon me situation with ukrainians. and russians intermixed troops. i mean in different parts of the ukraine. there's a 5 russian, the fence of happening and there is no straightforward front line one and kind of maintaining a ceasefire. there is virtually impossible a ceasefire could be only if it's immediate withdraw of russian troops or ukrainian

surrendering. i mean, it should be followed almost immediately by measures to the couple the are the fighting people from both sides. and that's right now, the problem, because a russian withdraw say, is that we greatest demanding antebellum will draw to the positions of 24th of february this year, which will swear, but russia won't take. and any kind of russia keeping some kind of piece is that if there's already taken, that will mean that there's going to be more fighting. right now. i don't really see the flyer or an agreement emerging. both sides are talking about wanting to have it because everyone wants peace. and no one wants to be the bad though, and who says no beast and sorry, but in fact, every positions of the 2 sides right now are almost incompatible. i'm afraid that

there's going to be continued bullshit for the time being. it's going to be decided for the time being not by diplomats, but by soldiers fighting with arms in the field. andreas, i just wanted to take a step back for a moment and see if you could try to walk our viewers through just how big a geopolitical shift is happening, especially in europe right now as a result of russia's invasion of ukraine. i think it's a fundamental shift that goes far beyond the east european region. russia is going to be a very different actor afterwards. i think the queue is going to change. nato is going to change the biggest change that i see and the service change. and is that true with the international regime for the prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons? because the most scandalous, perhaps, aspects of this entire conflict is that it's defined, of course,

by the presence of nuclear weapons on the russian side, and the absence of nuclear weapons on the ukrainian side. and the scandal here is that russia does not only have nuclear weapons, it is also explicitly allowed to have you clear weapons by the nuclear nonproliferation treaty and ukraine is it does not only not have nuclear weapons, but it's also explicitly forbidden to have you cleared weapons and the most grotesque aspect of this is, of course, they knew that ukraine was for a short period of time in the early $909.00. he's the 3rd largest nuclear weapon states of the world and had more nuclear ammunition and warheads than china, france, and great britain together. it could not control most of these weapons, but anyway, it had a huge arsenal back then gave it away,

gave it to russia and 20 years later, with the annexation of crimea. it was, it was punished for this. and this is going to make actors and politician and experts diplomats around the world, not only in europe or in asia, but around the world. think twice about their security, about the validity of international law, about how they can protect themselves and how they may also be able to snatch a territory that they want to get from a neighboring peter. despite the repeated, please from president zalinski and so many other ukrainians, nato has continued to refuse, imposing a no fly zone over ukraine. do you think that at some point that might change, that pressure would build? so substantially, from possibly even within nato member states, that there could be a shift in that stance. many of us are tempted to speculate on that. one has to be

careful not to be just to, to, to come across as a war monger because we all understand the implications of the war. and i was on be understand the europeans concern, the global concern that that would lead to a direct confrontation with a nuclear power. so having said that, i would say that the following, the logic of this escalation and once again, serious questions about the rationality, vladimir, i spent 2 years in a bunker, hiding from cove it and apparently not hiding from his old officials on possibly afraid of assassination of them 1 may wonder if he is still with us in this realm that in this world, rather than the world of his own invention. and so this is a very dangerous moment. obviously no one wants to escalate any further. but at the same time, there is an understanding on the part of the nato in the us, that

a fight recreating is something larger than a 5 just for ukraine. sovereignty is fired for the western credibility and legitimacy. having said that, you know, what's the next best option? the next best option is for the nato to enable ukrainians to try to force their old semblance of an old wise zone with air defense systems. where the missiles and yes, with fighter jet something that the polar than us have come very close to deciding on there's a snaffle. now, i think last speech to congress yesterday was a very serious contribution to that decision being made, considering that joe biden is now under pressure from the opposition from members of his own party to deliver on the promise you. it's possible if russia were to manage to take keys. what exactly does that mean? does that mean that there is no more chance for diplomacy? does that mean there's automatic regime changes that mean negotiations continue?

what happens if that were to occur? i don't think that russia has right now the capacity to actually successfully dig key if it's a very big city and the russian forces that are there are to the north of the city are just simply not big enough. but russia can bombard, key of which you didn't do up to now, but they can begin the kind of see gen, a bombardment, which would make life very miserable and very dangerous in d. f. again, i'm not sure that that's right. now going to happen immediately. it seems that the russian main military thrust is going to be to do all possible to swiftly capture murray or bowl and maybe put more pressure on the co. i've russia right now running low on reserves,

socially and actually moving more forces to north of key f. i mean, maybe if they had them, they can't keep them there. they're very enormous logistical problems, especially with those of paratroopers that are deployed there. so i don't thank you for it. now is on the cards, of course things may change if both equal decisions are made in russia, but nothing is what a memoir meant this possible. an effective, a swift offensive to take the city non it's, i mean it's bigger than muscle and it will take, i mean, i don't know a months a year maybe do go through it and turn it into a pile of total route, rumble, and then take it and repair it that way. i don't think rush is ready for that. i don't think it has the capacity. andreas, from your vantage point, is there any acceptable off ramp than to the conflict that can be offered to

president putin right now? i don't think that it actually depends that much on what is offered because my, my impression from the russian propaganda machine. but it can basically provide the sort of off ramp or 14 in almost any way. if there's any concession that ukraine can make symbolic on that that could potentially be already enough for protein to withdraw if he wants to withdraw. that's, i think be the crucial question. and as i said, well that the costs and risks of this entire operation will have to raise and the west is the only the only the actor can raise your costs by imposing more severe sanctions by delivering have your veterans. and i agree with peter that

maybe ukraine does not even need a no fly zone imposed by nature of what it just need needs is the right material, the right weapons. perhaps also volunteers are ret, around war veterans or army veterans from patches on the nato countries. that would come to the international legion most urgent ukraine that already exists and would been operate and, and provide the logistics support for let's say an aircraft weapon. a peter, we only have about a minute left. i just want to ask you very quickly, are you hearing from fellow ukrainians, any sense of hope that the negotiations that are going on right now might actually yield some kind of meaningful ceasefire or into the conflict? i don't think the gradient or ukrainians now that i talk with are putting any of their hopes in diplomatic or in the process. they're putting their hopes in the

result of the crania step show to fight for their country and to fight against the enemy. this is as black and white as carpets go. and the sort of national mobilization i've seen and the rise of the national spirit is unlike anything you quinn has knowledge since the 1940 since world war 2 are i we're, we have run out of time. so we're gonna have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much. all of our guest peters on my a pablo felon howard and andreas on land. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also during the conversation on twitter, our handle is at a j inside story from emergent human, the whole team here, bye for now.

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i think i'll just 0. when the i'm sammy say down in doll. how that'll get the headlines here now jazeera, now several russian rockets of hitting that cross maintenance plant near the airport in the west. and you live. the city is so far escape the worst of the bombardment seen elsewhere in ukraine. russia has been targeting residential areas throughout the week as it seeks to leverage ongoing negotiations. frame buffer, avi has more on those attacks from the area, sorry, started going off in the town center in louise in the main part of the city around 6 or 6 30 in the morning.