but i don't see how that can be sustained in the long run, and indeed, america has been trying to persuade russia to extend the life of the station project till 2030 currently scheduled to end in 2024. i can't see how that's going to happen now. we have that much more on our website. the address is also sierra. don't combe ah, current top stories here on out to 0. hundreds of thousands of people stranded in major ukrainian poured city that's being bombarded by russian forces as they try to seize control. this footage for mario poll shows the scale of devastation. shopping mall is heavily damaged and residential buildings are reduced to rubble. the battle to take mario pool has now reportedly reached the city center, frances prison, manuel mccomb, one of the she western leaders to regularly speak with russian president vladimir

putin. as demand that the russian forces will immediately lift their siege alive, humanitarian access, and order a cease far. rob mcbride has more now from the faith. this is a city, of course that has been under pretty much a constant bombardment. since the start of this conflict, it was quite quickly at besieged, cut off from the rest of ukraine. i'd but we do know that in the past week, especially conditions have deteriorated to really desperate levels inside the city . the thousands of people who have been coming out allowed to leave in these convoys of vehicles have been describing good the conditions they've left behind. but the question remains about the fate of the thousands of people who are still stuck within that, that city, that some of the latest reports now seem to indicate that troops, russian troops could well be in the city center itself. well, mcbride are forcing their russian missiles of struck an aircraft repair facility

near living. that's a western city hosting hundreds of thousands of displaced people. the capital key has also been hit by missiles and shells. city officials say more than 200 people have died there during the war so far. yes, president joe biden has warned his chinese count of hi, she ging ping, that there will be consequences if china provides material support to russian forces attacking ukraine. leaders spoken video conference for nearly 2 hours. china has so far refused to condemn russia's invasion, but has said that war is in no one's interest. russian president vladimir putin has praised his troops financing in ukraine in of where public appearance, the president addressed tens of thousands of people at a rally celebrating 8 years since russia annex crimea, from ukraine. event was packed with russian flags and pro kremlin no city. popstars, would you de leon if you are firmly up to date counting? the cost is next. we hope to see you very soon. thanks again for your company. a

bye argentina's wildlife is being jeopardized by industrialized agriculture and uncontrolled cattle grazing. teresa bo takes you on a journey into the e, better national park to explore what's being done to protect nature and meet some of those determined to work on. we wilding argentina, talk to al jazeera in the fields. i lose . hello, i'm sammy's a dan. this is counting the cost analysis era. you're look at the world of business that economics this week. the war in ukraine could severely impact the global economy and the i m. f also warned. the consequences could be last thing,

which countries and most at risk the world heading into a new financial crisis. also this week, cut off from the international financial system, russia has turns the chinese you want to survive. sanction. could the government shift away from the us dollar? is the green back dominant, endangered town currency purchases in roubles have been rising and governments of wire a. russia could evade sanctions using virtual point and so is unregulated money, really a fake for russians financial. why don't the war and ukraine is obviously hurting the economies of russia and its neighbor with both countries expected to experience shop with sessions this year. but the economic consequences of the wall not only be felt by parties to the conflict, sweeping sanctions imposed on moscow and the soaring price of energy supplies, or they could inflict pain on all the nations to. that's all of course,

while the world economy is still recovering from that current of virus pandemic, the international monetary fund says the war could have a severe impact on the global economy. it expects the candidates growth for cost globally. the i m f is also reduced its estimated global growth rate for 2022 to 4.4 percent in january. that's down from 4.9 percent last year. the most serious threat to the world economy is soaring, inflation, which is already at levels that haven't been seen in decades. that's mainly driven by the sharp rise in commodities and food prices. europe, with its heavy dependence on russian energy could be particularly hit. the ukraine war is expected to reduce your zone economic growth by as much as 2 percentage points consume prices in the 19 countries that use the euro zone. currency hit record highs for 4 months in a row,

reaching 5.8 percent in february. while the us is also at risk, it is expected to out perform european countries. in the conflict is also putting a fresh strain on that overstretched global supply chain. pushing up the prices of many metals, both russia and ukraine export laundromats, of steel, palladium, platinum, and nickel, among others. some common cause of idle factories due to a lack of components. and it is poor and developing nations that could suffer the most. among the challenges ahead of trade shocks a reduction in remittances and financial instability. but food security could be the most imminent threat. russia and ukraine of both main exports is of weights and parts of africa and the middle east could suffer severe shortages. well, to discuss all of this now i'm joined from new castle in the u. k. by klaus the stephan county is the chief. you're as an economist with pantheon macroeconomics.

good to have you with us. so many experts. now we're comparing the current situation to the $900.00 seventy's energy crisis to the come out. so the lehman brothers, do you see any of those similarities? well, i mean, if we're very lucky, it could be a combination of both, right? because you have the specter for russian default that could be like lehman. and you certainly have the the 1970 style supply side driven inflation. i mean, at the moment i would say we're more sort of towards the $900.00 seventies in the way that, you know, demanding the economy strong. and then we've had pretty much since cobit hit, we've had a string of supply side shops in the economy. the worn ukraine is now an additional supply shock rusher is one of the biggest, if not the biggest commodity corner in the world. so, but i mean, you can't, you just said, if i'm lucky, this could be both. that's huge. all we on the verge of another major global

financial crisis, that's not our baseline, but certainly we are now dealing with events where things can get out of hand. very quickly and where i think no one knows exactly what the ramifications will be. right. so a russian servant. busy default could, could obviously send other markets in a tailspin, we already have stressed financial markets. so we're certainly now in the, in a, in a, in a rather precarious situation. obviously, policies being tightened, although again, that could change. but at the moment, you know, policy support has been withdrawn because of high inflation. so we have a downside risk to growth. inflation is very high. which constrains policymakers at least in the near term. so yeah, know, suddenly the risk of something adverse happening is suddenly rising. i would say, you mentioned inflation, then the i m f is expected to reduce its full cough. all we heading towards the

perfect scenario for stagflation are we are in speculation now i think, i mean, if you look at full cost in general over the last 3 months, and i would say this is going to continue for the next 3 months. also with reference to your comment now and i'm f inflation forecast will be ratcheted up because as you, as we economist start to factor in and quantify what, what the increasing commodity prices mean for inflation over the next sort of 6 months. if you will. inflation forecasts will have to go up, but growth forecasts will have to go down. so again, whether we're staring up into a global recession, we don't think that's of course, that's probably sort of miles deflation. but in so far as goes, the idea that inflation is growing up or growth is slowing. and you know, that's what's happening and you know, that is back felician. why was huge, will that mean for less developed countries for countries which are already struggling, jordan lebanon to new jersey in countries which subsidize the basics of life like electricity prices and so on. how they deal with this challenge while the economy

is like that are in a very tight spot now because they will be hit very hard by the kind of inflation we're seeing now. and food prices, basic commodities. whereas developed economies are a little bit more shielded towards that a because they're richer but, but also because their consumer price indices are not sensitive to, towards these kinds of a price increases. so i would say that, you know, we do, you know, them the consequences of effectively, if you will, shutting the russian economy in this case, out of the global economy. and the ramifications that have on, on different commodity most in an environment where commodities and inflation already was kind of hiding out. yeah, that could have quite significant consequences for, for some of the economy. you mentioned there was lead to lots of depend on, on, on, on imported goods in some food stuff. of course, the economy is also produce a lot of their own stuff. but again, some of them are still dependent on,

on inputs. and what about china? china is gross full costs, so going down it costs, at least of energy going up houses, going to impact shooting, pings, policies. while thing for china as a sort of a balance. the situation are politically, of course, they will feel that the extent to which there is now a winding rift between the east and west. they feel that they might, will be able to, to become sort of a center point in the east and in the eastern part of this they will trial because to, to politically exploit that situation. but economically, yeah, i mean, chinese growth is already on the pressure. they have a huge issue in the problem. second, which is affecting large parts of their economy at the moment. and so in that context, the fact that global growth now seems to be to, to be slowing in the context of, of, of an inflationary shock. and, and withdrawal of support in general, that certainly not a favor, certainly not a benefit for china, but generally in terms of the sort of you politics, i think maybe, you know, china will feel that they have opportunity to, to, to,

to make, make a few points you mentioned developing, you mentioned, developed countries a moment ago as talk about europe, the continent risking recession right now. guess they, it is. i mean that again, we don't think years will fall recession, but we suddenly, we've recently bounded our full cross for the 2nd half the year reflecting high inflation, a hit to real incomes, less monetary policy support as a suddenly that's a risk. i mean, i would say that the, the upside in years when they start fiscal support, governments are asked to cover the particular where, of course they've, how the economy a lot the, i think that will be quicker to, to rush to support economy here. you know, i think we will see direct subsidies for especially low income households in the context of, of protecting them from, from higher energy prices. i think we'll see big investments front lower than defense spending, which also, you know, has a suits that also boost u. p. growth in short term, we'll see big investments in energy infrastructure, which also could be front loaded. so i think the private sector suddenly now we'll

probably face lower, but we have to grow at a slower pace because inflation, cindy is going to sap some of that. and momentum, but i think governments are going to try to offset that. of course, that's just going to give any more just gonna push even more on inflation. so in some sense, you know, if there's one thing i'm certain about is that inflation will continue go higher. everything else is sort of a little bit uncertain. what about the us? we can't talk, we can't not talk about the world's largest economy. how resilient is the u. s. economy through all of this? some say, well it would take all price is going north of $200.00 a bow before the u. s. is pulled into refreshing. what do you think? while that's the good news, we think the us economy is relatively silly into this. you know, consumers have bots are stored up savings their little bit further away from, from, from the situation in europe in general. so yes, they will import, obviously inflation by higher energy prices. but also remember, this is a really, really important point. the u. s. economy is different now because the u. s. economy has a big oil, producing such itself are shale,

which means that as all prices go up, yes, it affects the u. s. consumer negatively, but they have a little savings, but it also boosts an energy cap act. so this old story in which, you know, all prices go up and that immediately hits us growth is not necessarily the same anymore. we think that, you know, there, there could be even be a positive correlation between high oil prices and capex, investment and growth in the u. s. because you'll see all production spot to pick up. so the us is resilient. that's very good news for the global economy. because obviously that will become, i mean, if the u. s. economy does well, you know that already there means that the global economy is on a relatively decent footing, even if you have witness elsewhere. all right, thanks so much and good talking to you. same. thank you for talking. the sanctions imposed by the west on russia are reviving an old debate on by the countries should hold dollar base central bank reserves. you see the worry is they may lose access to those reserves when they

need them. the most favor on fowl of the west, russian government has been at risk of defaulting on its debt. now because moscow doesn't have the money, actually, it does, but it can't access almost half. it's foreign reserves that you've been frozen by western capital's. russia says it's made $117000000.00 in interest payments. it owes to investors. but the money could be blocked by the us. the russian finance ministry says the nation would try to pay in roubles if this happens. moscow has a 30 day grace period in which the government should pay up. if it doesn't, that would constitute a default. it would be the 1st time the country failed to meet its financial obligation since the $917.00 bolshevik revolution. while russian banks and firms are increasingly turning to china's currency, the won as they faced isolation from the west land v t. b bank is offering

a chinese currency savings account with a maximum interest rate of 8 percent. others are also looking to start using china's union pay system for credit cards off the visa, mastercard suspended operations in russia. the dollar has been the world's reserve currency since the bretton woods agreements. in 1944, russia held $100000000000.00 or 16 percent of its foreign reserves in us dollars. as of june 2021. another 32 percent was held in euro's and the country's been trying to reduce its holdings of us dollar denominated assets. in recent years, it sold off all of its us treasuries. in 2018. moscow also held over a $120000000000.00 worth of gold mold and its actual dollar denominated holdings. the commodity is effectively its primary holding, given the loss of access to dollars in euro's. the u on is the world's 5th largest

reserve currency. central banks held at least $319000000000.00 us dollars worth of you on reserves. in the 3rd quarter of 2021. some economists say there's an effort on the way to build an alternative financial system to that dominated by the us. they say that you are together with golden crypto currencies are likely to gain market share at the expense of western currencies. well, to discuss this, i'm joined now by timothy ash. he's a senior emerging market sovereign struck just that blue by asset management. join us now from london. good, heavy with us. so has the one become russia's new dollar, or is it becoming rushes new door? i don't buy i think what's interesting about this crisis is the unwillingness of, of the chinese to bankroll russia to kind of help the russians circumvent sanctions. and we've seen that kind of across the board. i mean, you know,

lots of criticism of sanctions from the west and there in effectiveness. but actually the financial sanctions that have been lobbied sofa and the fund, the energy is not really been sanctioned. it's quite incredible that companies just do not want to transact with russia, including for energy because of the financial sanctions. the bottom line is the dollar is still king. alright, but regardless of how willing the chinese are on not is distrust global, describe destruct, growing in the us dollar, because russia is not the 1st country that's been deprived access to its assets. we have, we've had iran, north korea, the tati bomb, and so on. i don't think so. i mean, you know, what's again notable is ofac the us treasury in the western sanctions machine is just so so powerful that shows is you may, you may find alternative ways to transact, but in the end, western sanctions will find you in all these companies. the chinese bank,

et cetera. the desperate to avoid been caught in secondary sanctions. so even if there are these authentic payment mechanisms, you know, the ofac will find you eventually you will be hit by the secondary sanction. so it doesn't really solve the underlying problem that you, you evidence to live with sanction because of its bad behavior. oh fuck is going after you and companies simply do not want to be caught in the firing line of oh fuck maybe we should focus a little bit now on the sanctions and just how unprecedented all the sanctions, no rush of a particular on its reserves, its foreign currency reserve. well, pretty remarkable. i mean, you know, no one expected the cpr to be sanction central bank. it's kind of unheard of. you know, when it came so quickly, i mean, i remember the week, you know, that week there was a research paper. i think on the wednesday or thursday, highlighting that this was an option, those intense negotiations, intense discussions, i know on the saturday in washington around it. and then it was done on the sunday

. i mean, utterly remarkable, but devastating for russia. russia thought it was in this, this untouchable position with 640000000000 of f x resist. it could withstand anything, the west through it and then then oh fuck dropped the bombshell sanctioning the cb, our reserves, and it put a huge weight of those reserves beyond their reach that got gold, i guess in, in the vaults. they've got physical cash. there are obviously some, some swap lines with the chinese, but if the chinese, i think, are reluctant really to help them out very much again, this idea, you know, they don't want to be caught in secondary sanctions for helping out russia. so, you know, it's put, rush really incredibly difficult place on the bridge. brink of default, the financial markets of all totally collapse. it's extraordinary. you know, 95 percent loss in, in value across the board, equities bombs, and the currencies come under massive, precious russians because of these sanctions are a lot poor today than they were

a month and a half ago because the putins actions and notable i think there is they did not expected. you know, the phone is generally reduced exposure to russia. the biggest hold is of russian assets are since himself, they believed the rhetoric. let me tell you that despite bad, despite the unprecedented nature of targeting a central bank has you just explain trust, you don't think you don't agree with those. and let's just say this could be a turning point. this could be the birth of a new monetary order. i don't think so. you know, i mean, what are russians dashing for? what does the guy, what does the guy in the street moscow want to get his hands on? it just want to get his hands on the wire or, you know, he wants to get his hands on dollars. you know, these are come maybe quit co counsel vegetable currencies. use of currencies shot up on february 24th. well maybe, but you know, it's hard still to, to track transact and in anything you know significant with crypt. so i think,

oh fact he's coming off the crypt. so in the crypt, so he's going to be used to break sanctions crit, so will feel the weight of western financial sanctions as well. all right. what about gold? you mentioned gold. there was the possibility that the russian ruble becomes, well, even at least the facto backs by gold now. well, you know, it doesn't really. it doesn't result the underlying problem that even if you come transact, even if it's legal to transact with russia and trade with russia, people do not want to, people do not want to take the ethical risk of transacting with, with kootenai, russia because of what is done in ukraine, i think good talking to you. thanks so much timothy. my pleasure is another asset seen as an alternative medium of international exchange to the dollar is crypto currency. many governments are worried, the digital coin could provide a hidden brute for sanction russians to preserve their wealth,

the virtual moneys unregulated, and it bypasses the international banking system, which of course is key to enforcing those sanctions. and the exchanges have come under pressure to address the violation sons. they've resisted several calls to block, crush and uses as a whole ad are not yet legally obliged to do so. however, the major crypto currency exchange is like buying that say they will comply with sanctions in a bind by the law. but there are thousands of small and less strict exchanges, which could step in and allow the transactions, the crypto currency research firm chi co says the average trade sizes bitcoin rubles transaction. he to 10 months high on february 24th in russia invaded ukraine . it's estimated more than 17000000 russians, all 12 percent of the population invest in crypto currency. russia ranked 18 worldwide in terms of crypto currency adoption. it had the 3rd largest share of

overseas transfers off the turkey and ukraine. russian entities that are under sanctions have been accused of using ransomware attacks for revenues. the block chain tracking firm analysis says around 74 percent of that income, all $400000000.00 went to entities that could be affiliated with russia last year. for joining me now is kind of part of the chief investment officer at credit link dot a. i an artificial intelligence enabled credit asset management company. she joins me from singapore. good, happy with her. so kyra, can crypto cards to provide an alternative to the us dollar? do you think at this point, the centralized crypto currency definitely to want to not provide an answer. let's see. for us dollar, you are sorry, still backed by the world's most largest and powerful economy, as well as their trade and financial flows. crypto does not provide such backing at

this point. having said that, a digitalized currencies and perhaps via but like, keep though, could replace usd to some extent, and we had seen them some tests already rolled out in china. we're by the p. b, o is see, has a huge digitalized un that has been ejected into digital. well, that's the use case for such money. could make sense in the event of natural disaster or even with the current ukrainian prices or can't go any distance in helping countries like russia to evade sanctions. i think it's difficult to use quick tell to rain sanctions because if a look at the size of fresh air economies forente but 1.7 trillion, whereas the entire market capitalization of group though, is 1.8 trillion. so crystal does not have the capacity or the death to allow russia to evade sanctions. and maybe not all the sanctions. can it be helpful? i mean, obviously, as you pointed out, the volume that simply doesn't cover all of rushes needs, but can it go some length?

to some extent, i will say yes. and if we look at righteous decision to allow crypto transactions earlier this year, although there was a lot of debate around bending group though, we could insinuate that perhaps that decision was influenced by the ukrainian nation. and we can't rule out. maybe there was some sort of tip of the only car close to boots in that, and you may want to move some of your assets to crypto markets. what can government stew, monitor activities with crypto currency they considered to be illegal? it's a bit tricky to monitor. i mean, of course, governments can deal what they always do, which is impose more regulation b in the form of transaction with 14 or transaction or a taxation or even straight del, pending. but generally, the marketplace as we're crypto is trade that are already regulate that one way or the other. meaning that those marketplaces operate in heavy li regular that you is diction such as the u. s. or the you and the endpoints are regulated. meaning if you want to do crypto transactions, you have to use

a nature currency such as the euro, or the u. s. the, against it. or i, we saw a huge optic in crypto transactions on february, the 24th from russia. what are people using it for? if, as you said, there is, it's kind of limited in terms of how far it can go to help with sanctions evasion. i think we could be seeing the 1st real use case for crypto with this side, ukrainian crisis as a lot of individuals, as the less entities are moving some of their money and some of their assets into crypto. so crypto could be proved to be a store of wealth at this point in time, although we can't really do any actual transactions in crypto yet. so this could trigger individuals just average savers increasingly looking towards crypto currency, not just sanctioned oligarchs. i would say so, and i'm looking at the comments coming from, let's say coin base and some of the other markets they have said pretty,

pretty straightforward. they are not going have been russian individuals doing transactions on their markets because they feel they can't penalize individuals and others agree with that. but having said that, limited access to the end points, let's say the dollar and the euro definitely puts a bit of hold on, not entering crypto for regular russians or it's been great talking to you. thanks so much kyle. thank you so much. that's our show for this week, but remember, you can get in touch with our fire twitter. use the hash tag a j, c c. when you do or drop us in a mouth, county, the cost down to 0 dot net. it's our address is more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash c t. c takes you straight to on page, which has individual reports, links and entire episodes for you to catch up on that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm sam is a ban from the whole team here. thanks for joining us. the news and al jazeera is next

from the front lines altos, air, his correspondence continued to report every angle of the war in ukraine. we've just heard shilling in the distance and machine gun far in the forests. there is a humanitarian crisis erupted on multiple fronts. rockets landed just a few meters from our convoy them in the positions. i've been all over the need for a region anytime st. totally destroyed along the road we came in on there was still clearly an active battlefield day with out there for the latest development. i care about how the us engaging with the rough world. i cover foreign policy, national purity. this is a political impact. here is the policy. what are we telling the good story? we're really interested in taking you in to a place that you might not visit otherwise. and to actually feel as if you were there. if you nami of mud very 16 and in easy infinity,

submerging the homes and livelihoods, it's 60000 people. years later, local inhabitants still fighting for justice from the fracking company. they blame and the hot sludge continues to flood grating. a witness documentary on al jazeera. ah, ukrainians buried outside their own homes, the people of mario poll pay the price is russian troops and to the city. ah, hello money inside. this is out there, lie from joe hall with a continuing coverage of the war in ukraine.