government writ large until the war is over until a political peace has been negotiated until bashar assad is out of power. now, china has reported its 1st cove at 19 deaths in more than a year. the 2 fatalities are from the northern gillian province, where authorities are battling to contain a surgeon infections. the nationwide death toll is now risen to more than $4600.00 chinas facing its worst outbreak. since the pandemic emerged that 2 years ago. tens of millions of people are under strict stay at home orders. ah, and let's take you through the headlines here and al jazeera. now russian forces are reportedly entered. mario paul, the southern port city has been devastated by weeks of russian. bon bon and thousands of still track there. ukraine's army chief says his troops have managed to block russia attempt to encircle and lay siege to the capital. give

a barrage of missiles managed to hit an aircraft repair facility, now livid in the west. on friday. russian president vladimir putin as appeared before, large crowds gathered to mark the 8th anniversary of the crimea takeover. he praised his military saying it has made gains in the invasion of ukraine. you might be that lady who ukraine's president vladimir zalinski says it's in everyone's interest to begin meaningful piece talks to avoid higher losses. just over 80 must have just this is the time to meet. this is the time to speak time to restore territorial integrity and fairness for ukraine or otherwise the losses of russia will be such that you won't have any resources to get up after that. today in russia, they celebrate the annexation of crimea. i would like to highlight one detail, they reported that overall there were 200000 people participating, 100000 outside and approximately 95000 in the stadium. this is the exact number of

the russian manpower involved in the invasion of ukraine. $14000.00 dead bodies and hundreds of thousands of wounded. this is the exact number of russian forces during this war. this is the price in just over 3 weeks. first, u. s. president joe biden as warn chinese leaders, she ging ping, there will be consequences if aging provides material support to russian forces attacking ukraine. the leader spoke on video for nearly 2 hours on friday. china has refused to condemn roches invasion of president. she did say the fighting in ukraine is in no one's interest. serious. fraser bi shuttle asset has visited the united arab emirates. it's his 1st trip to an out of country since the war began in 2011. the u. s. state department called the visit profoundly disappointing. does it have lines? news continues here now to sierra, after inside stuart cove response, nato's long plan to military all take exercise the largest since the cold war has

taken on new significance as the war rages in ukraine day with out there for the latest development as 35000 troops from 28 nato countries demonstrate their abilities in a region already has russia's war in ukraine, stole to russian misses, and artillery continue to bombard several cities, but none have been captured after almost a month of fighting. so what is the kremlin military strategy, and can its objectives be achieved? this is inside stored. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully back table. the war in ukraine, which russia hoped, would be over within days, is now into it's 4th week. russian tanks and military convoys remain at

a standstill outside the capital. keith, the kremlin, has yet to capture any of ukraine's biggest cities. despite attacks by land, sea, and air, they've targeted mainly residential areas throughout the week, as well as an outpouring of popular support for ukrainians, advanced weapons and aid from nato countries and others are helping stall rushes advance. despite the battle ground setbacks, russian president vladimir putin has shown little sign of relenting rob mcbride report from live if. if ladyman puts in, of russia had early hopes of his russian forces, achieving magnificent victories over the ukrainian army of them being welcomed into ukrainian towns and cities or by populations. glad to see russian forces here than those hopes are quickly disappearing. just as the snows and frosts are giving way too, as spring here in eastern europe and time is not on the side of the russians,

and many of the forces that came down from the north have been largely bogged down on a long columns in roads, in the north of the country, or from the south, we have more success being found by better equipped units coming up from the crimea . or that may be, are better trained and better motivated that have seen victories against ukrainian force is falling back. but the russians have found that in the towns and cities they have taken over, they are still facing a strong resistance from people who simply do not want them there. and time is not on the side of the russians, as putin becomes more of a pariah in the eyes of the world. president j. lensky, of the ukraine. his stature seems to grow by the day. and the longer that the russian forces are bogged down the more vulnerable they are, to the growing resistance and strength of the rig ukrainian military fed by recruits from home by volunteers from abroad. and of course,

all now using increasing amounts of this sophisticated military hardware from the west, the anti tank missiles, the anti aircraft missiles, all of them increasingly targeted now at russian forces. rob mcbride for inside story. ah, while s now bring in our guests for today's inside story in keys, we have alexi heron who is a professor of politics at keith moore. he le academy. he's also the head of re it at the democratic initiative. foundation thinktank in london, anna mad viva. an expert on russia and duration affairs. she is also the author of through times of trouble. conflict in southeastern ukraine, explained from within and in washington dc were joined by doug crane. he is an assistant director at the eurasia center of the atlantic council that c u. s think tank. welcome to your thank you for being with us on inside story. alexei in key. let me start with you. if you could tell us about the situation on the ground. ah,

as this conflict enters its 4th week, are we seeing a change in russia strategy since the initial invasion? well, 1st of all, i would like to, well, basically your correspondent, the describe the situation quite correctly. so rational forces stole, they exhausted, they had demoralized. and in this situation, what groceries doing, they're starting to kill, to kill civilians, to shell civilian objects. and there's many evidence also a lot of the do a lot of for those, they do not spear maternity houses for children, hospitals, and other places they are blocking. give occasional corridors they are preventing humanitarian corner boys to the besieged scene is like hurricane or muddy hooper. and actually russians were saying that they are going to liberate russian speakers

. they turned rational speaking cities like car q and money will, in a total in, destroyed, bombed and destroyed. so this is a debt now, over russia to intimidate doing them, it being severest to intimidates a vest, to intimidate ukraine and to intimate the as the world community. it was the threat of nuclear war rush. so by the way, yeah, i would like, i would like to have, excuse me, i would like to actually, while i am talking to use, it is a alarm. so people, it's necessary for people to go to a bomb shelter. and about 2 days ago i residential place, just one kilometer from me, was hit by russians your i to there the end and that the bombings have been it have become frequent in recent days. in keith,

as we seen and heard from our correspondence on the ground. lexi, thank you for telling us about the situation there. russia has denied, of course targeting civilians. let me come to you and i am at viva. in la and i, british military intelligence has said, russia's invasion has largely stoled on all fronts, with russian forces making minimal progress on land sea or in recent days. but president putin has again denied this, saying that the operation is going to plan well, what is the reality of the situation as you see it? yes, i would like to say i'm torn exceed out. i have a full support and sympathy with light and we are of course, very sad and choked with so please accept them as kind of hotmail ah, what? all to, to think it is one of which in a path to resent the brave trap. he cannot mountain the open resolution people on

the day when that is this huge concert in moscow showing so that, that it won't war effort and say, actually, you know, my strategy has been so he has to present the brain from, it's not it's out of question but i don't think that we can make any final assessments and say that this is something which is definite. normally they would have been several bethel plants, several operations, maybe some of them will be more political with a little bit of a military precious. some of it was more kind of combination and somehow it will become full or assault. so put in, it has chosen the high risk strategy, but it does not mean the other strategist don't exist. what does normal pattern of behavior is 1st, to pissed, the opponent,

but need to calculate that only economical whatever means, wait for a spawns, it will only this response, pause, and then take the next step. now we are seeing that kind of pause and hulu ation stage. he is also thinking how things would progress before the next kind of strategy, p activate ok. so i, you say, where in the pause and evaluation phase of this, a russian strategy, doug crane, what are your thoughts? well, what do you make of this strategy? we're seeing a shift towards great, a use of artillery and miss on strikes again. city such as chris on car cave and mary paul of course, which has been besieged. what does that say to you about? what is to come next in the conflict? sure, thank you. and in 1st i want to echo anissa words alexi. i wish you nothing but safety right now, and i hope that you're ok. it's incredible that you're joining us as air raid sirens are going around you. i wish you nothing but safety as,

as for russia strategy right now, it seems like what alexi had mentioned before the attempt to intimidate ukrainians with massive bombardment and shelling of cities and civilian targets is spot on. i think that we can all recognized by now that ukrainians are not going to surrender to russian domination. so even if russian forces were a bit more effective in their campaigns and were able to seize major cities like yours, i think that we can see now they would not be able to hold them so easily. we already see and see like hassan, where occupiers are being met by demonstrators. ukrainian operations forces or special operations forces are also waging a significant operations. you know, they recently rescued the captured merit political and freed him. so these attempts to bomb at civilian targets, such as the mario ball feeder, which was bomb, does this week, where 1000 civilians whiting there. these are attempts to try to talents of

ukrainian people and physically eradicate any resistance, right? we'll see though that, that, that's not going to be so effective. i not say the strength of the ukrainian resistance has certainly caught many people by surprise, including the russians. what do you think has worked to their advantage? well, look, this is surprise only for those who, who do not know ukraine didn't fall. there is also a ball in the ukraine who didn't follow events in the ukraine and who was so called fortune understand us. believe the, those who believed in the russian miss boat, everything which was done by russia since 2014. because a, you know, when you cranial better it isn't, grew in 2014 after 1st russia ukraine. and let me in mines at that time, ukraine was thought of the non block country official and russia wally the

agreement. so it increased ukrainian patriotism, which includes not only ukrainians, but also ethnic russians, a jews. and as it groups, which are in the ukraine. so also bulls shows that ukrainians are going to resist agreeing. an army was significantly transformed since 2014 but put in the apparently he didn't want to believe it. you know, this is a system of the decision making in the ship state. nobody is willing to submit human heal situation on the ground. so put a miscalculate he saw to yes, he saw the ukrainians would be happy to meet the russian soldiers. he misunderstood and miscalculate ukrainian army ukrainians to side. and he also miscalculated

for international support to ukraine. as well, right. interesting that you say that i know you said before that we are in the past about a past phase of this strategy. now the russian strategy, do you think we are going to see a significant shift of this strategy moving forward and well the ukrainians be able to maintain an active defensive military effort which have been able to do so until now? well the last part of your question is really i think has been answered by on it. say, i can tell you that from my perspective we need to take the peace negotiations . direct nish talks between ukrainian or russian. psych seriously, we should not dismiss them. we should not be treating them with scaffold. this is all within, as all was alive, all was in the end and in some kind of peace deal. this soon. it and some

peace deal. the better for the people of your credit. so full support for negotiations. they have been helpful, was for both sides. we do not want to quote them too much of them. let them do their job. we need to take it seriously. they probably have to be some compromised cranial slave as well. so let's, let's happening. i mean, the bombardment continues, the siege of variable continues, so it's hard not to be skeptical about whether the talks can achieve anything. i have a different horse and i studied conflicts and was for almost 30 years of my profession like we will not have that kind of ideal piece which comes from yet every what it comes down, sitting down to negotiations table takes all of them and say you know that's kind of what you're really making up. there was no real piece comes out of that. what it

comes from within the war. and that's if we look at was a few, the sloppy how croatia and so they made peace. well through the force of arms. yeah . craner, so have to be displaced, let yes, but india to come to make peace and this piece is lost. so we should not be trying to say that this will be so kind of priest team. please deal with every will be if one of the civilized will each other well, or just sit down according to what will be a messic roast. okay, well, not a medicine. well, let's take a look at russia's recent military operations and how they compared to this current one in ukraine, russia's entry into serious civil war in 2015. for example. i helped turned the tide in president bush halifax, favor. russian forces relied heavily on intense bombing and indiscriminate air

attacks against residential areas. in 1999 russian forces invaders chechnya for the 2nd time in 5 years, then they shifted towards greater use of artillery and messiah strikes against major cities. and they also cut off supply lines between cities. the capital of grossey was leveled in the fighting 20 years earlier. the then soviet union invaded neighboring afghanistan in an attempt to reinforce a new pro soviet regime in cavil. the soviets counted on a short term military operation, but never sent enough soldiers to deal with stiff resistance by afghans and thousands of foreign fighters. a dog. let me come to you and ask you about, ah, you know, the scale of russia's military involvement in ukraine compared to a, 1st of all the entire capacity of russian forces. and compared to these recent conflicts without syria or even going as far back as the afghan, his son war, how has russia fed? what, what is different this time around for them?

so this warren, ukraine is perhaps more similar to soviet involvement in afghanistan and russia's wars in chechnya van compared to involvement and syria. it's similar to syria in the fact that they are leveling cities and committing serious atrocities against civilians. but it's different from that because the, you know, syria did not have such major ground campaigns from the russian forces or afghan to stand in. chechnya were long grinding wars against insurgencies. eventually that lasted for years and sucked up a major drain from moscow's forces. this is something that unfortunate while, while it's still very early in ukraine, this war is only entered it's 4th week. now, i think that all indications point to that this is something that could stretch on for quite some time. we've already seen that russia's forces are inadequate for what they're trying to accomplish in ukraine. that's why syria is sending something

like 40000 syrian troops to assist them. russia is trying to bully bell ruffian forces into joining them. rushes, asking reportedly china for ammunition for food because the food that had sent its soldiers into war with some of it expired decades ago to know that russian forces were wholly unprepared for what they're finding here. i think that they expected something maybe more similar to what the us experienced in afghanistan as it withdrew the taliban. last year, swept rapidly across the country, the government fled, and the government flaps and the taliban quickly swept into power. that seems like something that the russians may have expected here. unfortunately, it's not the reality improved seriously miscalculated, ah, ah, your thoughts about those that do you agree? is russia repeating the same mistakes as it did in past operations? whether in afghanistan or half way? yes, and now i think the 1st thing is it's too early a to dismiss our effort on me and that often fire power. so with grouping,

they come to supply. so let us kind of not saying that they're defeated and kind of a very dating these yes. yeah, but i have been to afghanistan through girls made tour and they pulled the homes, worked in syria. what the chechnya has seen these places and talked to people who actually lived a little bit was so a bit of kind of hand hands on experience there. to some extent they were all quite different. the boy in check now was horrible miscalculation, but remember, the russian army at the time was of course script army. and they stamped into battle field a lot of completely an experience. unwilling, once good, there was also a big opposition within the russia and within the russian military to the company yet. so in that they would move the really quite sent ground groups. so the only

way liberal tactic was to warm, grossly from the ear. ok out sick and it was different because russia started involvement in a live pool all get towards the end of 2016 when the war was on already ranging for 4 years. and there were multiple actors in walk in. it is also a lot of so a lot of difference as you say, and let me come to your legacy, how the tactic used in syria western circle and besieged rebel held areas and pound them from the air and from artillery batteries any any, and exhaust really that the defenders and any civilians who had managed to escape this is not quite what we're seeing yet in ukraine. but how long if it is the case, how long will the ukrainians be to hold on as long as nests? again, if he mentioned, even you know,

worst case scenario and it's really difficult for me to imagine that you will surrender. but we will continue find, you know, there's no question about citizen decisiveness of people. you know, also were recently pulls held in the ukraine, 90 percent are supporting the government 8 to 5 percent or is going to take arms to defend the county. so let me compare this conference. i will give you the figures. ok are in 10 years war in afghanistan to soviet union lost. 15000 soldiers, 15 souls. okay. now according to ukrainian official statistics, russia lost the see just and city ok. maybe ukrainian statistics is a little bit higher. americans, east americans are talking about $7007.00 sells and soldiers killed russian

soldiers at minimum minimum. ok so, but you can compare 15000 for 10 years in the canister. and let's take 7000 in 3 weeks down. this 7000 is more then z u. s. last in again and for 20 years. so the losses which roster her curse. i incredible. a rational never, never had such losses as a gown. okay, so the statistics of course would be denied by russia. let me ask all 3 of you one last round of question. everything is denied every single night, but of course russia is not waging war against the green and russia. it's not targeting sooner. okay, not that bad, but i'm a good let's, let's say i'm,

so let me ask you a final round of question to each one of you. we have very little time left. let me start with you, doug. what are the possible scenarios for, for the outcome of the battle? will russia be able to gain full control of ukraine? i think there's 2 options here that could really happen. first put in, if he was smart, he would recognize that there is no political victory to be had in ukraine, but ukrainians are more motivated to win this war than the russian soldiers are. and they're more willing to go farther than the russians if he was wise and wanted to preserve his rule. he would end this war, he would stop the killing. he would try to save the world. you know what, you put these sanctions on russia and isolated us because of this war i've ended the war with these sanctions must bring companies back to russia and you'll try to preserve his rule that way. i know, actually i don't think that's what coons going to do. okay. i could put you your thought, sorry, running out of time. i apologize for interrupting you. i know your thoughts. what

do you see as a possible outcome of this conflict? so put in, this is not a war on about ukraine. this is put in confrontation with the west. it depends what kind of concessions the west is prepared to give him. and if the west gives him something, which will sort of set this by him, then ukraine will span. if not, we're going to see as very lucky and very distraught and possibly what local. okay, it wasn't a battle with the west alexi. you have great black. you know, thank you and i thank you for that. next bill you have the last word. how does this? and so here here, i totally disagree was my russian go because it's not the same war between russia service. it's not the result of come from dish. quoting says this crazy deal to crash. you agree?

because result, ukraine, you cannot restore some kind of the soviet union or the rational employer. so point in the saying that ukrainians do not exist as a separate nation, that ukrainian state east for free. so he would like to crush you agree? we're going to defer and i seen it adds and those that they put in will be, it will be necessary for him to do is draw. he cannot wince. you know what you care to when it says ok, thank you so much. thank you for your thoughts on this very interesting discussion program. alexei, her on on, on my viva. don kane, thank you for joining us. and thank you for watching. you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can of course, also join the conversation on twitter handle is that

a j inside story from mutually back to bring the whole team? thanks for watching, bye for now. with me on counting the cost could the war and ukraine plunge the global economy into a new price? it russia, china as you on to survive sanctions is the us dollar and danger. could crypto currencies help russia evade financial punishment?

counting the cost on al jazeera for did romito simply molina families to pain is unbearable for their relatives were killed last week during a military operation ordered by the venezuelan government, security forces accused him of being part of a colombian rebel group and said they died in combat with neighbors and family members insist they were innocent, taken from their homes and executed under pressure venezuela's, defense minister by the me to pipe reno said the armed forces were applied to the friends that come through from the regular groups that added that human rights needed to be respected, and that the events at the border with be investigated with jealousy, that she does with a clamor. it's part of our culture to, to look our very best, especially cation and for that. people who spend money,

everything you see on the cut will they do with the is going to be longevity. they don't have to come in and tell things around my, my gear on our do their ah, ukrainians, buried outside their own homes. the people of mary paul brace, fillmore destruction as russian troops and to the besieged city to school. my mother in law, born in 1936, she survived to letting grad cj russian passport on at wauka russian federations fishing industry. but she is lying.