taliban lack of international recognition are making an already di, if humanitarian crisis worse. more thought at the house will you will have that we plant and cultivate poppy book. if you don't have any other option, do you have farms plump poppy in their farms? and the once you don't work for landowners, the alyssa trade is intertwined with of can a stance economy. now, it continues to grow despite attempts of resistance at home and abroad, cause he a little bit of the young al jazeera. ah, hello you watching al jazeera, these are the top stories this alum negotiations between ukrainian and rational officials have begun in east amble cave, once russian troops to withdraw. while moscow is seeking guarantees. ukraine warren, to join nature, him wrestle, sutter has more from istanbul, russia and ukraine, and delegates. they have arrived to stumble last night and just a little bit later,

the tools are going to start. so did the 2 officials that they have talked to, they told they're telling me that the russians how some tough condition, such as the neutrality of ukraine. the demilitarization of the country did the notification and also who grain to recognize crimea or fish gas bottle. russia and also to recognize the separatist republics, don't yes, and law haskin, eastern ukraine. ukrainian president vladimir zalinski says he's armed forces, have re taken control of the open. there's been heavy fighting in the city north west of cave since russia began its push towards the capital last month. nearly 5000 civilians have been killed in mary. a pulse seems rashes invasion began. that's according to the city's mer who also says 160000 people were main trapped. sanctioned ration. billionaire, roman abramoff inch, and 2 ukrainians were reportedly poisoned earlier this month. the wall street

journal reports had happened during the recent talks in cave. the chelsea football club own reportedly suffered, saw eyes and peeling skin, but as now recovered. ukrainian negotiate is also suffered symptoms consistent with chemical agents in other world news peruse, president pedro castillo has survived a 2nd attempt to impeach him. congress fell to rage enough phones to remove the president from office. and brazil's president j are both narrow is reportedly undergoing tests said a health center in the capital. brazilian. the 67 year old launched his re election campaign on sunday. he was stamped in the abdomen during the 2018 presidential campaign, leaving him with ongoing health problems. those of a headlines i am emily angland. the news continues here on al jazeera, after inside story. in the meantime, head to our website out to 0 dot com. we don't currently focus on the politics of the conflict. it's the consequence of war. the human suffering that we report on it

is one of the most serious about the violence in recent years, we brave bullet bomb because we give voice to those demanding freedom. the rule of law and will always include the views from all sides. holland has received more refugees from ukraine than any other country. moscow has warned its government to stay out of the war. that is the risk of a spillover miss. so what will be the fall out? this is inside stories. ah hello, welcome to the program. i'm hasn't seek rushes, invasion of ukraine has had a direct impact on neighboring countries, most of whom are members of nato. poland has become vital in the western effort to defend ukraine with some of the fighting getting close to its border. last week,

russian forces targeted the western ukrainian city of the very near the polish florida. just as the u. s. president was visiting poland and according to ukraine's military, 3 weeks after the war began, a rushing run flew over poland before entering ukrainian space where it was shot down. situation is force nato to decide on how to respond to incidents like this inside the borders of its members. states. us president joe biden visited ukrainian refugees and nato troops in the polish capital war. so on saturday, during a speech to a large crowd, he warned russia against violating nato territory. don't even think about, we're not one single inch of nato territory. we have the sacred obligation. we have a set your application of article 5 to defend each and every inch. know territory

appalling has had an important role since the conflict began last month. they went from rejecting migrants in the middle east to opening its doors to those from ukraine. hosting more than 2000000 people, the largest group of ukrainian refugees in europe, holland house, nato battle groups to deter russia and reinforce other members when needed. and along with romania, it's also a gateway for nato arm supplies, heading to ukraine. hundreds, this thing, missiles, javelin, anti tank weapons, and other munitions had passed through his borders. ah, let's bring in our guess. now talk more about this in warsaw. re watching. he is a senior fellow at the center for european policy analysis, and a former military attach a at the u. s. embassy in warsaw in brussels. robert shell, a senior fellow at the casino, pulaski foundation in poland, and a former polish diplomat and nato official. and joining us from oxford in england,

samuel romney and associate fellow at the royal united services institute. good to have your with us. so right. watching, if i could start, would you see you are in war? so what, what, what's the mood in the country right now? what would be the significant role that poland now finds itself in here? well, to start off with general bullish population has done a remarkable job in the government, in the hosting literally now millions. so we're seeing more people migrating or, or refugees. and then we've seen refugee flows in this short span of time since world war 2. i think it's an important point. i, i, you mentioned a my grandson bell rash border. this is all part of the full operation that initiated last summer. that hybrid warfare attack against the bully order,

those were migrants being used as against the stabilizing the border. and then also i military force are so that they can concentrate focus on their primary overall. generally the bulls are very, very ukrainian brothers, a see this existential prices are down for ukraine as an existential crisis. or should they lose? and rochelle, how do you see poland role in all of this? particularly when you remember that before this conflict started, poland has had the reputation of being kind of the bad boys of europe up to then with lot of criticism about their moves that inside poland that was seen as trampling on the judiciary on independent media and, and sliding, backsliding over democratic norms, and yet now it is a very important player in all of this. well, i mean, you know, there are,

of course, nobody's perfect about various issues which, which i'm, frankly, unique. as you mentioned, there were dispute that the part of the government has had, for instance, where, you know, institutions but, you know, and poland has a phrase actually spending more time. also can confirm that, you know, polish political scene is quite polarized. but having said of it, there is a very strong degree of unity on this issue is really bi partisan. there's not that much difference. frankly, there's debate. no, it's, it's about like the tactics this, about the, the details of response. but, you know, college knows the french and poland has been among those countries who have been providing a very realistic analysis of the situation. it has not always been heard sufficiently, you know, strongly, so to speak,

in other international institutions. so, but it's not about being vindicated. vindicated by the analysis. the key issues like you mentioned at the beginning, pollen is actually key country in terms of the handling of the, of the refugee, which is, you know, crisis which i think, you know, a pretty rush to hell the gradients. and so that's one miscalculation of protein, but also on the need is the pro plans state. and it's not only hosting you know, allied troops now it's about $10000.00 i truce predominately american, but not only and providing of course, the vital hop facility for, for the essential defense assistance, the crate. but actually, poland is also doing a lot when it comes to, you know, increasing for example, defense expenditure, you know, and i think the necessary legislation. so in other words, is, you know,

taking not only this crisis very seriously, but it's, it's responding. so in a way which, which frankly, you know, it would be good if you were copied by, by more countries that would be in western europe. so that is perhaps one of the key reasons why it president biden came straight from brussels meeting or later you and you, 7 to 2. proponents are not on into war. so, but also to reach a u. s. troops in russia. samuel romney and if we could talk about the did the security aspect to this. so we mentioned at the top there the risk of a spill over. if this aah escalates into something beyond ukraine's borders. if that does happen, poland is likely to be very much in the eye of that storm. well, i think that there is certainly a grave risk of an accidental le escalation that drags poland into a broader sense of conflict. because even though russia claims that is pivoted is military operation towards focusing on the liberation of don barza calls it. so

moving towards eastern ukraine lucian, the continuation of strikes in western. you gran strikes on oil depots, communications towers. as 300 deb air defense systems. and factory emissions factories inside levine and even as was litski. and one of those strikes recently had between 10 kilometers the polish border. who's not conceivable. that could be an accidental strike. that brings poland into it. they've already had an errand, missiles drag that hit a turkish ship on the 1st day of the war. so that kind of accident is possible in terms of a deliberate russian attack on poland. either that's quite remote, i think in terms of risk, the countries that are most at risk or the neutral both. so we say it's ga, moldova, probably followed by a stony ab lithuania and deb bosnia bay because the russians are threatened there. and then poland, being further removed from that ray will change. one thing you notice about about poland approach to all of this as well. in contrast, with,

with some of its european nato. upon this is that they've taken much more of a hard line approach to russia than some of their allies. they've wanted more forceful sanctions. they've wanted to know more in terms of defensive assistance to, to the ukrainian forces. but they've been, they've been over ruled on that up to now, what do you make of that? well, i mean, this is our sort of bullish history. there's a long, problematic history in this region and you're colluding with the germans in world war 2. what the russians are all in for a 120 for years. those think those are long memories and polls never, ever, even with the nato russia founding act in 1097, fully bought into the idea that russia would become a democracy. and as robert pointed out, those threat assessments that. busy baltic states and romanians for exam or pushing and call the rest

a teacher to indicate a polish for focus on defense preparedness. as robert wanted out, not only is 3 percent defense spending is also announced as far as nato g. p. spending that was phone number to united states is the only other ally that will be spending more on defense on has pledge to increase their military size or partially a $140000.00 territorial and acted today towards dublin. or more 300000 troops. totally at the end of the day, that only is focused on a big modernization program that predates this latest attack altered very sank one room or 20081 of the russians embedded oregon. so that take this very seriously, and they're very disappointed all the, to your, to your dance, mostly

a different view. a good part. if there could be said any good art is the west. europeans are waking up in the german starting up there. and spending change is modernizing. they're both very and being a more willing and able facilitator of defense on nato's eastern point. so those are all the things that it's coming at a very late date and, and same thing for us as a wine, i've been sent to the ukraine. now as far as the big initiatives are the 3 that all to really push and unfortunately not occur. one is there make 29 transfer? very disappointing. how that work out from do are you the 2nd is the no fly zone. all is a big supporter that and then also a ground on what it is considered to protect humanitarian orders round up, keeping probably more like making mention. so all those are truong initiatives. are

you brain? mama, rochelle, what do you make a, did the relationship between the you as a whole and poland right now, given that they become a kind of an indispensable partner in all of this new found favor kind of emboldened the government in warsaw now. but you know, it's not a stock, so receipt. so there are some issues, but i think they kind of, you know, hopefully they sort of part to be dealt with. the important thing is, you know, is that important? there is a very, very strong support. the european union and coordinator probably, you know, gathers a higher, higher figures when it comes to opinion polls. but is it fair to say that, you know, you can, you situation has prominent role as well? i mean, there's been a lot a lot. i should not just, you know, talk, it used to be the case, you know, the famous, you know, expressing concerns,

et cetera. you is really at he play when he comes to sanctions. and, you know, at the moment i would say the, you institutions have really been been quite excited for, in terms of, you know, pushing forward the problem with that. of course, you need all the capitals to line up and at the moment poland is, is very strongly, he's not alone or that you know, are going for going for where it really the credit regime, which is essentially the gas and oil experts. that is again, c, holland, well has done a bit more homework. i mean, they did use the rate, is that by, you know, by the end of the c po, column would be totally independent brush because it's taken set. so actually invest in, for instance, liquefied gas and things of that nature, alternative route. so of course, some other countries in europe are slightly less prepared, but nevertheless, i think that there is a gathering of mental it's also, you know, you know,

a certain kind of political example, or we just mentioned the fact that no matter, i know it's been some critical or even some sniping remarks from, from the sidelines. but the koreans appreciate the fact that parents, they believe, actually in having, you know, 3 prime ministers from college against. i mean, you're traveling to g f and meet with president and ask interest, you know, the humming visit of that level to happen. so i think, you know, and is kind of showing the way, but yes, i mean, some issues related to what you mentioned that question out there. you know, on the judicial system, they will need to be kind of, you know, discuss further. but at that moment than been point to the thing is that there is unity, more integrations. and then there is a determination to actually press or had any post such high on the, on the regime in russia that he will reconsider what he's doing right now. but of course, you know why. ready why needs to so called the ukranian sci fi?

and that's also something that was so very strongly being for so yes, i mean it's, you know, the crisis brings out the best one could say in, in, in those who care about security and, and support for those victims of aggression. let's pick on pick up on some of that with samuel romany and i want to ask you at some stage, when your client is no longer dominating the headlines, if there's a negotiated piece or the war becomes one of the one of attrition and just falls out of the spotlight, the, the underlying issues that the rule of law dispute with poland with the are not going to go away. are they, i mean, those issues are going to have to be addressed in work. certainly. i mean, i think that poland is certainly used and leverage is crisis to be a vanguard in terms of dealing with, with russia. and that's been

a very positive thing. i mean, poland has been able to actually steer and influence you policy in the direction of energy. like as it was, one of the most dependent countries on call me for my shop is 70 percent. and it was meeting early ban on that that helped. busy still more european countries towards least discussing the energy embargo. we've seen poland take the lead on and on a variety of other issues or be keeping you arms transfers so that leaders to that rule of poland as well as a leader and outlier. it's quite interesting. i think it's something that will kind of continue to persist even after this crisis. because the rule of lies, you won't be going away. up re watching what he, what do you make a, that's a dynamic as a kind of a push and pull a thing going on here between poland and his dealings with other european partners . you know, i would say 2 things at this point. one is, if you try to understand the, the position of the current government of poland,

it's 2 sides of the story to the government of poland sees on their reformation or their reforms in the court system. previously they try to do some things with the media and so forth in other areas. and they see that is very domain to deal with. so are you and also by extension the united states is these are things that are domestic issues that we want change or, or are or things that were not reform during the august time. we wanna. busy reform them, so i think there's 2 sides of the story. it's not all about what you read in the west. it in my view that all one is somehow an autocratic or almost autocratic state, which i think totally over blows or what the reality is on the ground here. so. so that's one. the other is the u. s. ambassador, relatively new sound as being marked in sky has made it clear over and over in

washington, and then here since he's arrived in though those issues are issues, he wants to work on it and deal with with the polls. nothing there is going to be no daylight in between on security defense issues in the mission and right. so those issues are not going to play a role or a primary role in any of the discussions going on with united states. and on fact, if anything, things are speeding up on security, defense chars, weapons transferred, they're all in and transferred from poland to ukraine. rubbish out. what do you see as the main security issues for poland in this, in this going forward in terms of its defensive readiness? should, should this conflict escalate? well, i mean, 1st of all, one needs to keep one's cool. so we know we can basically allow ourselves to be kind of intimidated by, you know, you know, relatively skilful. although by now i think, you know,

the methods are known. everybody, you know, narrative accredited because that's, that's basically want to try to do it. you know, we've seen some direct verbal. there's information attacks and polar article by the former president amid get it. now the calls are not easily scared. so i think, you know, you know, we'll, we'll, we'll keep that cool. but of course, there are various issues related to the way that russia is combating, is more in ukraine, which is not really winning. the new crane is proven to be in an open bottle, much more successful in the russian army. i mean, the myth of the russian army, if successful and efficient is gone. but having said that, russia shown itself to be once again, be totally unconcerned about human lives. the use of totally disproportionate force and basically, you know, attack on the civilians. so that is something which, you know, the poles and an hour later made members have to take very seriously hands that me, i think more stress on the kind of, you know, protection against me, sounds,

and so on. and any attack or russia on nato countries would be so excited for russia, but you know, we don't want to see even one in shop, for instance, post i retreat to be destroyed by the madman to credit it. so i think there is not a concern that there was work going on right now to configure nato to be even more, you know, directly kind of protecting the defensive lines of not just poland, but the baltic states and also helping other countries that were mentioned in the region such as for instance, you know, georgia also in the book, who knows, you know, so it's a, it's a kind of movie, movie facet effort. but, you know, it just shows that the anniversary of major membership, which we kind of celebrate the recently has been one of the, you know, you know, joining nato has been one of the best thing that happened to poland because it's a completely different ball game. when you are, you know, to get a ride,

a train tonight, i said, we know that we will win, but you have to be prepared for that expected because that's the kind of, most of around the, off of the, of the russian. the kremlin was samuel romney. how do you see paula's role in this the, the longer this goes on? well, i see poland playing a increasingly decisive raul bulls in terms of bringing european countries together by a trilateral frameworks. i think the polish check republics lenient framework majority produced. a 10 point plan is one positive step. another is obviously the british polish ukrainian platform has also been created. that's another positive step. and given the fact that poland and britain are both vital got contributors to army ukraine, britain with the movement of n, l a. w is another anti tank weapons especially. and training po. busy acting using his borders as a conduit for it. those trilateral frameworks will be very important for polish ha, influence going forward in terms of policy that poll until we bring forward. there are several that i think that they'll be really trying to advance with particular

vigor. one will probably be cutting the ab rushing banks off the remaining ones on from swift ads already support for that. inside the united states. we're seeing gym bridge, for example, talking about secondary sanctions on russian banks, us poll agglomeration, and the financial punishment of russia is something we should watch for. paula might also be pushing for as switzerland and any remaining european countries that are on the fence of banning artie and spot neck to make that kind of step as well as granting russians who are defecting and dissidence asylum. brickley those from the military. and at pushing towards more comprehensive and sweeping sanctions, an individual russians like the gillian russians who are supportive of the united russia party and some other ventures like that could be things that poland will be lobbying the you to do. so play a very active role in the sanctions regime and also the horn nation. much races as you cran. moving forward or a watch. i guess i could send back to you on this. um, what's probably going to be the last word? there's been talk for several years of permanently assigning us and nato forces more to poland. do you think that's a real possibility now?

yes, i do. and i think the interesting is in the last couple years, it's just like a threat assessment where the. busy it been maligned a little bit by some of the west or you it was we can get along. the bulls are clear eyed about this and then when the proposed this permanent basing of american forces specifically and go are, you know, forces on the eastern flying. joe came out about for trump and it was going to be named and everybody focused. and you know, wrapping up when about for trump. the bottom line is it was a great initiative on drew a different paper to sign an agreement with united states on a lot of new initiatives, not permanent. asia are getting much closer as late that ground work and i think the u. s. and you know your area. so for intimating this every day now is much closer to considering permanent ac us forces and other allies all along the eastern

flying. i think it will become a reality. all right, on that we're going to have to leave it. thanks very much to all 3 of you re won't check robert shell and samuel romney thanks very much of being on inside story. and thank you. as always for watching them and we can see the problem again, any time by visiting our website as a little com. and for further discussion, you can go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a inside story for me hasn't seek and the whole team here, and they'll help bye for now. april on al jazeera frontline reporting and in depth analysis. we bring you the latest on the ukraine war and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, immersive personal shorts, documentary africa, direct showcase,

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