support support its total thought, of course supporting the accord contributions to it. he only a 50 and of course strengthening the partnership through the 5 offices that has been established under your leadership those that in you would focus on security as it 2022 world cup draws closer. the 1st such event in the east where nearly half a dozen countries are rocked by internal conflict and instability. i'm advice, i just yell don't ah, your geologist there with lisa l ronda reminder of our top stories. russia says it'll reduce its military activity in northern ukraine, including near the capitol keith. the announcement followed the latest round of negotiations with ukraine. now ukraine's president is cautiously optimistic, but expressed a little trust for moscow. dark more than unreservedly was it the we can say that

the signals we hear from the talks are positive, but these signals can silence the explosions of russian shells. of course, we are seeing all the risks. of course, we are not seeing grounds to trust the words coming from representatives of the country that continues fighting to destroy us oman, brazil, more than a grain that ukraine supports the talks and will continue the negotiation process to the extent required. we are counting on the result. we must have real security for us for our country sovereignty, and our people, russian troops must leave occupied territories. our sovereignty and territorial integrity of ukraine must be guaranteed on the russians strike it. a government building nikolai, a ripping a hole through it. now at least 9 people were killed and 22 wounded. in other use, 5 people have been killed in shootings near the israeli city of tel aviv police say a gunman or the motorcycle open fire pedestrians. it's the 3rd attack in a week president joe by the u. s. has signed into law or

a bill that makes lynching a federal hate crime. the anti lynching act is named after till a 14 year old boy who was murdered in 1955 for allegedly flirting with a white woman. haitians have rallied in the streets of the capital over the western crime rate and political instability protested say nothing, murder and rape is happening daily without consequences for the crimes that demanded. the prime minister area alone leave government do more to address the crisis. police in the u. k. plan to find at least 20 staff from the prime minister's office for attending parties at broke cove at 19 lockdown rules. the investigation is related to 12 events where restrictions were thought to be violated by johnson has been criticized for taking part in at least 2 of those gatherings. those headlines, i'll be back with more news and half now to stay with us inside story is next. ah

ah, what compromises can be reached to stop the war in ukraine? turkey is hosting a 4th round of talks following previous failures. is a break through possible this time? this is inside story. ah. hello and welcome to the program. i'm a jim, jim. there are 3 previous meetings fail to find a breakthrough. now, negotiators from russia and ukraine have health face to face talks in turkey to try and end 5 weeks of war. turkeys president says now's the time for concrete results

and a cease fire. the ukranian delegation wants to see peace nationwide before any final agreement can be considered. ukraine's also offering to declare its neutrality in return for security guarantees, and to discuss the status of the annexed region of crimea over the next 15 years. but ukraine's leadership insist territorial integrity and sovereignty are not up for discussion about the beloved president of ukraine. give clear instructions to our delegation. we did not played people land or so at, and t does not a subject for negotiation with me here. a position of reinforce gone cleats supplied by international law and claims armed forces. international sanctions that have an applied in his russia and weapons that have been handed over to us today that griffith rushes military says it will reduce activity around keith and charity . have some of the kremlin demands include recognizing crimea as russian and the don bass region as independent or so sir. dar has more from the talks in istanbul,

as the new rando piece falls between russian and ukrainian delegations continues in a stumble, series disagreements remain between the da da da da. negotiate in parties here. you mean your side is insisting on international security guarantees and an immediate cease fire to resolve the urgent humanitarian our problems. however, the russian side has proper conditions. russia is asking ukraine, officially to animals, is neutrality. which means you great not to pursue the goal of being an nito member . russia is also asked him ukraine to demilitarize itself. and the officials here they said that ukraine has shown us to a certain extent, willingness to make compromises on these 2 demands. another demand from russia is the nick did not vacation or ukraine, but the official say that it's very much an ambiguous term, an uncertain term. and it is not clear what russian means by dina's fighting the did the ukraine government at the most delicate issue. here is the territorial

integrity of ukraine. because yes is asking kia, also to officially accept crimea, which was a next by rushing in 2014. as part of russia and also forcing ukraine to, to recognize the 2 separate at this republic in eastern ukraine. don't ask and as long as independent states and officers say that when his eye so far has not shown any willingness to make compromises about it's territorial integrity. the official says at the da da da da da da road is quite a rocky but mosley, the success of this negotiations. this pistols in istanbul depends on how much russia is going to make it a retreat from his max madison demands. and the limits of the ukrainian flexibility christmas out of that 40 sites story. ah. all right,

let's bring in our guess from near keith peterson, my of executive director of the eurasia democracy initiative from moscow. andre cartoon off director general of the russian international affairs council. think tank and for london, zachary pagan, a researcher in the e u foreign policy unit at the center for european policy studies. thanks so much for joining us today, and we really appreciate your time. peters on my have let me start with you today. so russian negotiators in istanbul have said that in order to build trust, it has been decided to decrease military activities in keith. and chair, to heave is this from your perspective, a positive sign? i mean as a fly and it may be positive, but once again, it was the trust you know, in that that, that's going to be the case. the russian federation has been less than trustworthy on these issues, even before the invasion. if you remember a few days prior to february 24th, the right hand side that it was pulling,

it's the troops away from the border, then it turn it around, regroup, and hit ukraine in all its parts with a massive kind of shocked and all contain a balmy, which never really relented during this whole time, i think the situation on the ground is dictating of the applied report and somehow re established strategies, simply because the russian troops are stretched up in diligence picks up, or they have suffered massive casualties. 15016000 counting and 50000 disabled soldiers, etc. but once again, what i'm concerned by despite these positive signals that we're hearing is that this is yet another ploy to try to win time to regroup. and to try to hit the key of storm, he tried to invaded a 2nd time from what i've heard from by putting himself he remains obsessed with the idea of controlling all of your brain under cartoon. ah, you've said before that a ceasefire needs to be

a top priority for russia. do you believe that it actually is a top priority for president putin right now? well, i hope that it is a priority. i cannot say for sure where the initial position was that the middle jargon should continue to eula, the ukrainian armed forces already to surrender. apparently, these position has shifted. i think that there are still some military objectives that the district would like to achieve. at least they would like to get to the administrative board as of the little ganske and dot net all blessed. so they could control all the data to the regions, of course, together with the military formation. so the, to a self proclaimed republics. i don't know whether it can be achieved in the

immediate future, but i would suspect that that remains one of the goals of the military operation. and that was reflected in the statement of minister defense, sagacious group who maintained just today, that the 2nd stage of the military operation includes establishing control or as you put it, protected, the territory of the guns can offload guns can done. yes. could publix zachary pagan, i saw you nodding along to some of what andre cartoon i was saying there, did you want to jump in? well, indeed, just to agree that the focus of the russian military campaign is indeed likely to be centered on the east. that's probably where the prospects are situated for the most gains, you know, over the days and weeks ahead, be initial, you know, significant breakout that we saw. russian forces in the south appears to now be proceeding at a glacial pace,

or possibly even being reversed in some cases. and of course, you know, the situation around kit is at a standstill. and so i think it forget about it from a, from a political, a strategic standpoint. from a tactical standpoint, it also makes sense for the russians to focus most of their firepower now in the east. but even there, there have been limits to the extent of their advance. so i think that some of that might end up shaping the outcome of, of these talks. the question of course remains, how long will these talks continue? and how long will this conflict continue? and i don't necessarily think we should be optimistic that this thing is going to, to come to a head in the next week or so. it could take much longer than that. still, zachary, let me also ask you, there are these reports out there that russia may no longer demand that ukraine be, as they say, the knots of fide in the cease fire talks? what do you make of that? i think that that term was deliberately vague and that's part of the reason why it was employed at the very beginning, right? it, it could justify it could be used to justify full blown regime change and give, but it could also be used simply as a means of stating the importance of protecting the dumbass region,

for example. and, and degrading ukraine's military capabilities when placed alongside the term demilitarization. you know, again, that to both terms, i think, could mean, i know many different things to many different people. my suspicion and of course, you know, it will be up to, to, i mean, of analysts and, and future historians to determine this. but my suspicion is that, you know, basically let me put in, had this option of refocusing the war towards that on bus. as a reserve option from the very beginning, in the event that the war did not go according to plans and that, and that, you know, the, the regime and you have to not fall so quickly. if that is indeed the case that he has had this as a reserve option for some time. i think that that perhaps contradicts this thesis that you know, put in is some sort of a madman or that he's insane. now, you know, in fact, you know, this, this war may have been slightly better in a plan that originally expected as, as many originally concluded, in the aftermath of the initial invasion. peters on my of the ukrainian delegation has said that they want to see a nation wide piece before any final agreement can be considered. do you think that

that is actually achievable? well, i certainly hope so. you know, i think ukrainian, the ukranian side is more than reasonable. it is willing to negotiate its to travel, the status it is willing to consider the natal even the ship crimea, you know, obviously it's not going to, it's not going to be able to sign off on russia sovereignty over crimea, but it's continuing currently freezing this for the next 15 years and moving into this process of, you know, ongoing debate about the final status of crimea, i think you created has done what it could short of, you know, could be deletion. i think lighting campaign of terror that is proceeding across the board across all of ukraine is actually designed to try to soften your negotiating position. that's why i'm skeptical that, you know, and i agree with my colleagues here, said that this is still time to go to fully play out and keep in mind there's

another thing. a very important date is coming up a 9, which is the victory they will for russia and victory over the nazi germany. and so it's been pulling troops into ukraine theater of action from our media, from georgia, from to jacob. and they don't from the far east, and also heard reports that the syrian fighters in has bullfighters and may be coming to ukraine. it shows you the desperation of vitamin wouldn't have in order to show some sort of a victory to his people. i mean, he lost so much blood and treasure already that anything short of some kind of a visible victory will be catamount to his political death. that's why i think this is like a do or die moment live putting. he is very much concerned with his own political survival. he's even physical survival, i would say. and so i think we might meet yet see much more escalation and much more misery before there is serious talk about peace agreement and cartoon are in

other interviews with you. you've said that it's hard for you to comprehend mr. prudence actions when it comes to ukraine. are you any closer to understanding them and do you think that there are any international actors out there? any interlocutors who could offer mister putin, a credible offramp to the conflict at this stage? well, 1st of all, let me say that i agree with the feature that russian leadership cannot afford to lose. they need a victory, even symbolic victory, or even not complete victory, but something that can be presented domestically as a big today. and this is important in terms of corums engagement. i think that there are not too many people in the role doc might influence their ashley to ship may be chairman c. john from china can be regarded as

another broker because china as good relations with russia. but also as good relations with ukraine. it's a major trade and part of both countries. it's a major investing ukraine or so i can imagine that some kind of mediation services from china could be received up to believe in moscow. i am less confident about attempts to me day taken by people like the turkish president object gone because the gun turkey is a member to the north atlantic alliance has never tried to use sympathy for ukraine. and i don't think that can be regarded as a, as m e d. as in those broker, there might be some other people,

but clearly not too many of them in the i think that the textbook medation, there will not be easy zachary pick and let me ask you, i mean from your vantage point, who can be the most effective mediators going forward, i don't think there's an obvious answer to the question as under they just said, there are a number of you don't see a reticle, you know, individuals or countries out there that you know for one reason or another, particularly because they have good relations with both russian, ukraine could serve that role. the question is, do they actually have the political will and capacity to do so? so we talked about china having good relations with both. we've talked about turkey being both a member of nato, but having also, you know, pursuit pragmatic relations with russia and recent years, you know, carving out regional compacts and places like syria and the south cock assistant libya that, you know, people have also talked about israel as being a possibility, but at the end of the day, each of them has their own narrow interests as well,

which make it very difficult for them to be able to, you know, break out of the current geopolitical stalemate. right. china is a very good example of this. on the, on the one hand, you know, china does have its interest in maintaining good ties with russia for geopolitical reasons and the sort of great game that is now emerging with the united states. but china, you know, still arising power in some respects and needs to maintain, you know, good relations, you know, with the united states and, and, you know, with the broader western political community, economically speaking, technologically speaking, in order to continue that rise. so china is in a difficult position of needing to pursue its own narrow interests. and that's naturally going to make china a little bit more cautious. and because of the good relationship that china and russia has developed and invested in over recent years, i think the teaching thing is also going to be quite cautious about no, potentially twisting, put in the arm, you know, and trying to get him to bring this war to an end, and that would require using not just carrots, but also sticks, right. that would involve exerting political capital. i don't think china is ready to do that. i think that that's unfortunate because i think that countries like

china, india is another example. this could be an opportunity for asia really to have its moment in the sun and to surpass so sort of europe into inaugurate the post western world. but because of these various dynamics that have just laid out, that makes things a little more complicated. and so i think we're headed to it's a little bit more of a disordered world. as a result, peters on my, if a president zalinski said that he wants to make sure there are a strong security guarantees in place before there is any kind of accord any kind of a agreement who would act as a guarantor. and how difficult would that be? i mean, how tough will it be to to find somebody who would be acceptable to both sides of various countries might play a part in this. but how tough would that be to make a reality? and who do you think might be the leading contenders? very tough. it will be very tough to go by the track record. we can use any and every round of negotiation as a stepping stone to greater escalation. and once again,

has shown himself less than trustworthy. we also have the president of the 993 with the best number random which ukraine was guaranteed security in exchange for turning over it's nuclear. it's significant the nuclear arsenal over to russia and look where had it has gotten the ukraine voluntarily disarmed itself. and now it's in a very valuable position to say the least so much less you have said that in the very right, these sorts reasons were locked. mr. mia, who is a representative in the parliament that this should be a guarantee, stronger than the collective security article of nato. article 5. and currently what is being considered is that these that are in the countries that would be government doors would be countries, members of the current make up of the security council at the un, including obviously the apartment and 5. so this is something in distance. it's unprecedented. it's a completely different security architecture,

but just speaks volumes about the kind of vulnerability ukraine finds itself in and once again, the untrusted untrustworthy, untrustworthy. these of, of russia, ukraine has to have very, very strong guarantees. and in that respect that they talk about demilitarization, who has an onstar, ukraine has to have, you know, even more defensive capabilities that ever have in order for this arrangement to work under court, turn off. would it be acceptable in the long term to president putin? if president lensky were to remain in power, or would the ultimate aim of president potent be to see regime change and to have president zalinski replaced in ukraine? well, off, i don't know what kinds of personal relations they have. i might be skeptical about any kind of personal affinity between the 2 men. but in my opinion,

the zelinski is the, the, the only legitimate living ukraine. you can probably replace with someone else, but these someone else will not have legitimacy. and he or she will not be accepted by the training population. and what is the alternative? i personally do not see any. and i think that gradually we see more and more readiness on the russian side. negotiate with the middle, the landscape. we don't know what will happen the at the next, the presidential elections in ukraine, but does the landscape has emerged her as an international? i can, if he is known all over the world, he's respected and even admired i in many countries. so how can you get rid of him? why should you do that? my take is that russia will have to deal with the law, the middle,

the lensky you for our show wants to, and these are these conflict. so that's the only way to go. zachary bacon, let me ask you a version of the same question. i mean, has, from your point of view, president putin except to the fact that if he wants to go forward with this, he's going to have to deal with president zalinski or does he from your point of view, does he want to replace the landscape? i think that it increasingly looks like the, like it's the case that he has prepared to tolerate students the remaining in power . but i think that this has a little bit less to do with just the dynamic between put in and it ends give themselves. i mean, it's been said on this panel already that now put in needs to be able to have, you know, some sort of victory that he can sell at home in order to preserve his own political life. i think this has more to do with just put in and has to do with russia itself, right? russia for centuries has units, identity, views of europe is being a great power and being a term center. and if you can't set the terms of the ukraine, you're certainly not able to set the terms. these are the nato, the united states,

or the collective west. and so this is a fundamental question that almost one could say, existential question for russia, because it has to do with, you know, what does it mean to be russian ever since the russian imperial polity began constructing its health. that has, in many ways, sought recognition from the west as a respected equal, and that has been one of the drivers of russian nationally than it is for a long time. so these are some very, very difficult questions that remain unresolved in the post cold war era. and that russia's obviously having a very difficult time wrestling with just like other empires, like the british empire and the french empire. and others also have difficulty adjusting to their novel circumstances. as well as for the notion of the security guarantees that are currently being discussed for ukraine. i think it's deeply unfortunate that we had to have a war in order to come to a situation where we're discussing it perfectly brief. annabelle, i'll be to difficult and tricky, but nonetheless a reasonable proposal for how to revise the european security architecture or at least provide the architecture as relates to ukraine and other countries that want to have a guaranteed neutral status. i think it was pretty clear to any honest observer,

that mindless nato expansion had outlived its usefulness as a fundamental pillar of the post cold war european security order, simply because it had been rejected by russia. and if you don't have the buy in the confidence most powerful country, you're not going to have a stable durable order on the continent. and so i, i take the idea, i think the notion that these proposals are being discussed right now, simply the fact that they're being discussed as positive indication that maybe in the future there will be the opportunity to pursue more creative diplomacy and avoid future crises. peters all my of you and i on this program in the past have discussed how important it is for ukrainians that ukraine be able to try and join nato at some point. so, if you crane now says that it is going to adopt a neutral status in exchange for security guarantee that, that is something that is acceptable to presidents. lensky. how does he sell that to the public? is that something they would be willing to accept?

that's a very good question. you know, there's still much appetite among the public for you and natal membership, but this is where, you know, politicians come in and they have to make choices that are at odds with the will of the population. the previous speaker said something about, you know, i made a point about datas mindless expansion. i know that is a serious topic. married being a whole separate discussion. i would just say that for blood, benito expansion issue has been red herring. i think what you're seeing in ukraine is nothing to do very little to do with data expansion to create a considering that, you know, nato was about coming to in the next few years. probably enough of live recruiting to finish out disturbing his life. we're talking about 1015 years. rather, what we're seeing is that old 19th century style land grab land conquest. why wouldn't have been perpetrating against the ukraine?

and so i think it wouldn't let me alone. do you going to have to make a tough choice? is going to, he said he's going to submit this to the referendum and it's going to be up to him at his tea, to explain to the queen, you know, the kind of compromises and sacrifices they're going to have to make. all right, we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much. all of our guest peters on my have andre cartoon of anzac re taken and thank you for watching . you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion good or a facebook page that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is at ha, inside story for me, mohammed, i'm joining the whole team here. bye for now. ah ah.

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ah ah, your child was there with me, sir robert in day hall, reminder of our top news stories talk stream, russia and ukraine appear to have made progress in turkey. moscow has agreed to draw down its military operation near the capital caves. ukrainian president vladimir zalinski says he's cautiously optimistic about she's days discussions. talk more than as of either was it the we can.