u. s. government charged mosque with securities fraud in 2018 for misleading tweets that he sent out about his car company tesla. he agreed to settle and pay nearly $40000000.00 in fines by musk nose. in his attempt to buy twitter could bring similar government scrutiny. people shouldn't discount. this is the world's richest man. and he is having a lot of fun here, and he's enjoying it and he could well turn out to be to be private, that we don't have a scene. will the little blue bird have a new owner? it very well could, if musky serious and gets his way, which is far from a sure thing. gabriel's hondo i'll just eat a new york. ah said 0. these are the top stories in at least $117.00 palestinians have been injured during violent confrontations with israeli forces of the alex and mos compounded occupied east jerusalem. more than 80 people have been arrested by

police inside the comp. john holman, has more there are now checkpoints, barriers that have been put up around the damascus gates. this is where people usually go in and then head up to the alex or most to pray. you can see there are sorts of mass of people and the wood is that these ready security officials are letting in only women and the elderly at the moment. so there are hold ups more funerals applied in the occupied westbank for palestinians killed during israeli rates. a v israel military says it's conducting a counter terrorism, and these railey military is being accused of launching several strikes on areas in and around serious capital, damascus, state media report. the countries at different system intercepted some of the missiles. though injuries have been reported, south africa's army has been called in to help with rescue and clean up efforts after the worst flooding in 60 years is bringing

a to thousands of people without power and water. the number of casualties through flooding in the philippines is also rising. a 156 people have now died more than 200. a missing tropical storm mcgee dumped heavy rain over the central late province for days. devastating entire communities. the largest warship in russia's black sea fleet has now sunk after being damaged in an explosion. the russian defense ministry says ammunition exploded on board, but the ukrainian military says it hit the vessel with cruise missiles and china is warning the year sits down down a dangerous path by sending it politicians to taiwan. 5 senators and congressmen are in taipei where they've met the president and have stressed their support for the island. upstate with headlines, more news coming up right after inside story. i've not more and more indians are going under lunar to become

a tall one at one aisd investigator link. some people are willing to go to reach you on al jazeera ah, the war and ukraine is creating what the un calls a perfect storm of crises or developing countries. fighting has driven up global food and fuel prices. 1.7000000000 people could go hungry. so what are the solutions? this is inside story. ah, hello and welcome to the program. i'm hammer, jim jim rush's invasion of ukraine has up ended the flow of food, fuel and money around the world. the u. n. warns the conflicts cascading effects could have an impact on nearly 1700000000 people. that's because russia and ukraine,

our major food and energy suppliers, they grow much of the wheat, barley, mays, and sunflower oil. the developing nations depend on prices for the staple items. have reached record high since february when the war began. the conflict and western sanctions have also disrupted fertilizer exports from russia and bellows. global oil and gas prices are up as well as countries limit transactions with russia. though already super charging. as soon as i mentioned, all cries is full of energy and finance. that is bumbling. some of the world's most vulnerable people, countries on the corner of us. and all these comes at the time when developing countries are already struggling with the slate of challenges, not have better making. russia and ukraine produce about 30 percent of the world's wheat and barley. the u. n says at least 36 nations, including some of the poorest to get the majority of their wheat from them. food

prices are up 34 percent compared to last year. the highest level ever recorded by the u. n. food and agriculture organization. crude oil prices have risen 60 percent compared to last year. russia and beller was also exported roughly one 5th of the world's fertilizers and their prices have more than doubled. ah. all right, let's go and bring in our guests in a surgery italy, abdur as a bossy and a senior food market analyst and a former senior economist with the you and food and agriculture organization. in johannesburg, marvin gala a development and humanitarian specialist and a regional director at oxfam for horn east and central africa. in london, chris, we for a specialist in emerging markets and chief executive officer of macro advisory, a strategic consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. a warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. pardon, let me start with you today. oxfam published a report this week saying over a quarter of a 1000000000 more people could crash into extreme levels of poverty in 2022 because

of covered 19 rising global inequality. and the shock of food price rises, supercharged by the war in ukraine. just how much more dire could this situation get the situation as we see it really indeed is becoming more di and what i can reference. and i want to appreciate the opportunity to be able to reflect on this, especially coming from the on eastern central africa region in eastern africa. at the moment we have approximately 10000000 people who are 1500 crisis because of the various factors. one of which is the climate change crisis cuts across the region. and in this case we, i think it manifested in the form of drought in such a country of the p, o, p, somalia. but also, you know, other climate change manifestations in the formal floods in the done. so this has

a multiply effect for when the continuity comes of how it's bearing and featuring in terms of the honda prices. and as we talk about the green crises, we have seen it reflected in the form of what price of the peak reference, what we do not in eastern africa region, is that the moment approximately 90 percent of the width is soft from ukraine and russia. and over the last couple of months and we know that it is going to be more we've seen increases in terms of food prices to over 20 percent. and that is a major concern for us because no, tony, i, we've seen climate change, the drought, you know, flag to be done. so, you know, hunger crisis, but also the prices, you know, mean that they're even more people who will not have access to the food that they need. the other one you have mentioned indeed is about conflict. you know, we've had a conflict in various parts of the continents, and that becomes the compounding factor for not to mention how much the ukraine

crisis also plays into the dynamic chris. the world economy was already in a pretty tough state due to the pandemic. how much worse have the war in ukraine made things? yeah, as you said, 8 to 12 economy was pretty fragile. starts this year, starting to recovery from 2 years derek. and there's actually no doubt that this conflict to the consequences of this conflicts will add to those pressures and will delay the recovery. and the previous speakers already talked about the inflationary pressures, and it looks it absolutely, those pressures will get worse as we go through this year and probably into, into next year. so, and then that would have an impact on the job economy. so if we look at energy prices, of course, that are directly impacted by, by the conflicts, the potential that the company are reductions and say russian oil or gas supplies

that's already led to a 40 percent increase of the oil price this year. and looks like the sanctions they even pressed the price higher. but the real impact i think of the global economy will be in the area of food. so i can go to dimensions, weeks. the price of fleet is up. 45 percent begin this year. this is now planting season in russia, ukraine. there is no reason to assume any disruption in russia planting because it's well away from the conflicts on. but the ukraine hunting area is directly in the conflicts on. so if that planting season does not go ahead and right now, it looks like it is not. then you were likely to have minimal exports from ukraine in terms of fleets and other critical grains at the end of this year. and therefore, you're likely to have shortages of particularly of wheat and therefore leading to flower as well as some other other products later this year. and then the other

area, of course, in terms of global food, is of course, russia, ukraine, better roosters area is a big supplier of fertilizers of potash, which is used around the world in asia, in india of africa. they source a lot of search laser from russia, better is ukraine, and the prices of those product because of the input prices of gas and energy will also rise. so no matter how you look at it, we've had a bad start year in terms of food inflation. it very much looks like it's going to get worse over the rest of this year and coming in 2023. bill reza, your heard their apartment and chris both speak about the fact that even before the war, global food prices were already spiking. there were several factors that caused that . some of them include the krona virus pandemic, as well as climate change. there's other factors as well, how much has the war in ukraine exacerbated all of this? well, it's very difficult to put a sort of tag or

a price tag or something that fit, obviously has raised the premium risk. quite substantially. markets were title ready and there was no expectation that in their conduct kind of a climate that would be there before. that is prices rising almost every month for the past 12 months for the previous 2 months before the war started. that you would get ourselves into the sort of a problem and not just anywhere, but where and lot of, lot of the world grain use the source. if you take, for example, w p alone, it takes a lot of his grain from or crane. and now he has to report any sources or the prices. so basically what we have, what we have today is that there is that there is added to the uncertainty about the supply, both short term and near term, and also eat. it brought back again, lot of lot of issues, joe politics about the shipment. not to mention the infrastructure damage,

especially or primary or crane, which makes it almost impossible to predict when and how much of the crane grain is going to make it to the old market. so all of that means that for, if you are importing country you, you would need to source somewhere else, you need to go for plan b. and that means, you know, you have to rely on good weather this year. the harvests will start as soon, hopefully at least 4 weeks. right now, current indications are not so bad risks of the world. but you know, we are in the climate change situation year after year. so nothing can be certified before it's actually been harvested. algorithm can i also follow up with you about something that chris mentioned he was talking about the issue when it comes to fertilizer. now, i mean it's not just wheat. we have to talk about fertilizer prices that are also spiking. what kind of overall impact is that going to have while huge. in

fact there, the fertilizer issue, the order, the made headlines going back to last june. so it's not a new problem. now you have an addition. additionally, she referred to laser, which is that russia is the biggest supporter of it. so obviously we have to see how, how trading fertilizer will be affected. and then is the issue of the gas, which you need to import to produce the fertilizer. and that again is a huge issue now definitely adds to the cost. now, if you are a very efficient producer and you could somehow some benefit from these high prices, you will make sure that your margins are still very healthy. you would pay for those high priced, especially even if you find it, because that is also issue of the reasons why. so it just in one huge new added uncertainty on top of only on the things that we had to worry about. parliament. i

saw you nodding along with other reza was saying, so i'm going to let you jump in because i want to get your take on this is, well, i mean, the more that fertilizer prices rise, the harder it's going to be too far. right? yes, it's true. and i think the still points that i would highlight with regard to that one is the issue of price. when we look at the african palmer, you know, more often than not, for instance, in the eastern africa region, we're talking about mobile farm and many of whom are women. now if that's the case when you're talking about price, who is going to be most impacted, and then it also becomes my 2nd point. what are the mechanisms in terms of being able to support this more for the farm to be able to what pertains themselves. but also look at what is their future. so it, because that to multiply effect, the quality to one time in terms of immediate need, but also means on the long term if they don't have access to that, the fact that it has an impact on their production and subsequently impacts their

likelihood. so the priced element is just one part of it, but also looking at the type of community that we're talking about, many of whom are small scale farmers that don't have really good coping mechanisms . and as such, we would have to look at what are the kinds that might need to be put in place to support them both on the long term, but also on assessing. but eliza chris, what kind of effect is all of this having on investors? are they now more wary about the possibility of investing and emerging markets as i one of the effects here? yeah, it is. i mean we, we talked about the impact of people's people's lives and living in emerging markets and the rising cost of food. but either the development of any of our market requires capital requires investment, essentially requires the movement of capital from developed economies into developing economies. and, you know, we saw that slowing down because of corona virus investors, in,

in the big developed economies start to become more risk averse, which means that they would put their money somewhere safe, you know, largely in dollars based assets in developed economies and not taking risks in developing economies, and now this situation will exacerbate that, i think the global concern you talked about and we're far we really have no idea of what happens next. critically, for example, a us area, but the impact of global economy. we talked about food, but you know, the critical supply is gas. much of europe is critically dependent on russia, gas, and the batter about what the political sentiment is. the reality is that europe simply can not got the gas from anywhere else, and it certainly would not even have a chance of getting that guys from anywhere else for about 5 or 6 years minimum with huge investment. so that if that gas were to be disrupted,

you would have industrial disruption in europe. you would have a recession in some european countries, and therefore you'd have a global recession. and the reason i mentioned that is because it's a huge uncertainty that investors are aware of. and therefore it certainly does lead to a reluctance by big investment funds to start taking risks so long as there is this uncertainty over the global economy. they tend to be more conservative, but where they put their money and inform you that means it usually leads to a reduction in the amount of money that's available for developing economies. and that makes their situation even worse. so i'm afraid it is something of a perfect storm right, that we're now looking at which started with corona virus and has been exacerbated with the uncertainty that's now hanging over the ukraine. russia conflict and yeah, so yeah, christian situation look good if i could just follow up with you as well when it comes to the developing economies, these developing countries that are already struggling with debt financing related

to the corona virus pandemic. i mean, the economic outlook for these countries really couldn't be looking much worse right now. could they? no, it's looks pretty bad. there's unfortunately, if you're an investment strategist looking at a case for investing in most developing economies, it's very hard to see as an asset class. it simply isn't there right now. and then one other factor, of course is we're now talking about debt default possibility from russia for technical reasons, but it doesn't matter. once you start getting a technical debt default. and we had one last week from sri lanka that also adds to the more conservative stance by investors and they become a lot more wary of particularly, of developing economy risk. and therefore it adds to reluctance to, to, to, to invest. so yeah, i mean, unfortunately it's very difficult to look at to develop and you kind of be asked the class right now and say this is a good time to invest. everything sensible tells you none. and to wait and for

sheet that way, she is going to make the situation significantly worse for a lot of developing economies need capital at this stage. they won't get it. barbara's, i guess one of well, something else is really concerning. people is even if the war were to end tomorrow, and there is no telling how much longer this war will go on. but even if it were to come to a sudden end, it would still take quite a long time for things to get back to pre pandemic levels when it comes to global food supply and prices. right? frankly, i think we will never go back to the pre panoramic level already. correct me in terms of the overall supply you made, but the supplies probably the supply routes will be very different. i think we need to give market time to, to channel to find new new routes. i would say, because obviously is not just a war between russia and, or crane. it's a,

it's unfortunately something like a drawing a line quite, quite an extensive division of our planet, i guess. so be going to get you going to get a little bit of what you used to have your, in the cold war in the sense. so are you going to have different type of countries, one side, or another friends and foes and so forth? so i think that eventually trade will sort it all out. but as you call it was saying in terms of, we did the time for, for the changes in europe to adjust to the new new new world with gas not coming from russia or waters. also for food flows, we going to wait a couple of years. i think before we be settled down with this new world order, and this is most unfortunate, especially for the poorest countries and the developing countries which are struggling. and frankly, i don't know what sort of solution could be presented there. but my wishes that the

richer world would just, you know, try to not just think about itself as it did in the case of coal with, which is very shameful. but then when it comes to food day would really start coming up with the solid proposals that would at least cushion the poorer countries for, for the very bumpy years. that is going to definitely be ahead of us. to me, the crisis that you're talking about today hasn't even begun. so the real crisis is still has to come and go, right. i mean, do you have any idea on what it would take to solve any of these crises of what could be done? well, had i or would anybody at this point? i think this is just more than anything else requires a collective measure by, by all the countries by older leaders, including russia. i think that i've been in business for 30 years and i have not

seen a situation like this, confronting at least the food sector. goal saw the price is going on at the same time. so we do need some exceptional i guess, measures in this in this, in this case. and i think that when it comes to food, you would expect, especially countries like china, like russia to come along with the rest of the world. and at least for developing countries, make no excuses. that there will be no interruption in their supplies. and i think that one has to, again, not forget, the disaster that is happening in humanitarian disaster is happening in the rain. that problem has result quickly and or cranium have to be looked, looked off the 1st than by most, not just any people that are hard working people. and basically we leave our believe on their hard work and the whole world is, is, depends on. so this is not just one little war, some were going on. it is really likelihood of the planet apartment. i saw you

reacting to some what absorb it was saying, did you want to jump in? yeah, i think one of the things i just want to record more than maybe, you know, walking we've been watching very many crisis across the world. what we've been talking about the fact that it's not an ada, or in terms of the attention of the crisis in the wallet. you know that if you back to the above and, you know, we do recall the math at the moment that ukraine crisis has that significant impact across the globe. but we do also have other prices in the continent. we're talking about him and we done done. you know what i'm talking about in the region in the semester region, in terms of hunger prices. what's an africa? you know, we put a health food crisis. so in a sense, it's about also the international community looking at the issues on the globe in terms of how they do have a be plenty fact if there's anything i think all about learned from the coffee

native funding because that we are interconnected. so what does that mean really for us, on one hand, and maybe just picking up on a pointer to being talked about around dick, you know, in the african continent, in the eastern africa region at the moment in terms of servicing dick. because many countries i know have to look for resources to, to address you know, the, to respond to the quality condemning, but also to look at what recovery if we could do collect in terms of authentic it or what 35 percent of the taxes have been you wait, what's the big thing we've had to drop, even before the ukraine crisis, we had a drop of duty piece by about 2.7 percent. so all of that, you know, when you're talking about multiply 6 isn't really feeding into more and more some of which gets reflected in the, in the form of a conflict. you know, so my point around that actually is that we need to be able to look at systems systems wait, right? what does it mean?

what other alarming, for example, on food production, the food supply chain. yes. then been only tennyson's, well we have had a walking, you know, our so does supply as system. but clearly there such an inconsistency need to which mean if we have a trigger or a shock on one pat, as is seemingly small pack, it has a see a humongous effect. so it's really telling us also to look again at our me kind is ins and that's why i made the emphasis with on to be to round. what are we doing, especially on sustainable food systems and how me walking, especially with small, scarce more for the farmers that, you know, could close the loop in immediate regional markets. because we do recognize that the way we've got right now in terms of the food system. well, it can very well sustain itself. monica nomic shocks, big economy shocks, have a ripple effect. apartment. i want to pick up on something you just mentioned in

your answer. you were talking about multiplying effects and you also mentioned the word conflict. and that brings me to my next question. we just have about a minute and a half left. but i'm curious to get your perspective. how concerned are you that, that this, this perfect storm of variables that the world is dealing with now at which includes a climate change, a coven 19 pandemic? now to warn you, crane driving up all these prices. how concerned are you that, that this all threatens to turn into social unrest? well, in terms of social unrest, you know, there is that, like you would, you know, we do know of countries many of what was called the arab spring. a couple of years was based on indications such as the prices of food, you know, if you remember what is happening to news yet, what is happening in sudan? those are the treatments for many of our communities. and you know, we wanna say, how can i put food, how can i put bread on my table, those one triggers for many of the conflicts that, that we have. and so in that sense, even now people question me,

what is the increasing comes of prices for me to be able to feed my family? what does that mean in terms of looking at options? what are the options if there are no options and people take, you know, what we call negative coping mechanisms. and you know, well, on one hand, you know, you might want it conflicts, it is reflected in the form of conflicts. but the other things, people who are missing meals when good examples of families opting to marry off their young daughters because they want to have less marks to feed, get some income. so the a negative copy me can, isn't that people then adopt, you know, which include conflicts and fortunately, and with the resources where that is formed, when it is what, you know, gas being there. so don't centers of the complex. all right, well we have run out of time, so we're gonna have to leave the conversation here. thank you so much for all of our guests. abdul rosa bussey and carbon gala and chris we for and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time

a visiting our website at 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also during the conversation on twitter or handle his ad ha, inside story from emergent german, the whole team here. uh huh. bye for now. a african stories from african perspectives machine go on to songs of home music, no ma mancha. now when i did picture with short documentary from african film, maybe from wanda and bertina fast printed with wanted is what he sounds of home and the coach africa direct on al jazeera. we understand the differences and similarities of

cultures across the world said no matter what lucy algebra will bring you the news and current affairs that matter to you al jazeera, why did one of thailand's most decorated palms flee the country in fear of his life? in a 2 fraud investigation, one, 0, 18th, reveals explosive allegation, a police corruption on out of europe from the ruins of mosul, music as re emerged. and these are some of 40 musicians who make up the weather orchestra in iraq, 2nd largest city. despite being bon bon morsel was occupied by isolate the melodies arrived. derfin christian curd are absurd needs and she has these young men and women represent the diversity of iraq to be able to hear music. i'm in the ruins of mussels, old city, feel strange,

but it brings home. the resilience are presidents who say that despite the destruction and lack of help, they remain committed to bringing the city back to life. ah, ah, is right, soldiers arrest at least 100 palestinians more than 150 are injured in confrontations at the alexa most compound. ah. hello, clog this is al jazeera life from dough. also coming up a make shift at food business. people trying to make ends meet off to south africa's, so was flooding in deck without coal supplies. russia, germany turns.