round with hands tied behind their backs earlier this month, when you crane recaptured it from russian forces could cherish now asking russia to help find those responsible. i fully support the federal google mon, that i a fuel to the russian federation to accept to corporate with international good middle court. and to charge residential towers in urban, where there's been extensive damage. innocent civilian living in this building. they were paying the highest price for a war, for which they are not going to be a good mental ukrainian officials were frustrated. he visited russian president vladimir putin in moscow before keith zalinski called it ambiguous to see the aggressor before the victims. the un secretary general has been unable to get the sides to see eye to eye, but wants to begin the negotiation process to stop a war that many ukrainians had hoped. the un would prevent in the 1st place. and

you chappelle now does hear ah, your challenge 0 with me is the horrible reminder of all top stories ukraine's president says he's hopeful of a solution. can be found full civilians trapped in the as of style steel plant and mario paul laudermill zalinski. as meeting with the un secretary general, antonio guerrero, shin ukraine's capital keith. early on thursday, the you and she visited towns outside of ki where russian forces were accused of war crimes. ukraine is left the center of unbearable heart, h and bayne. i witnessed that very vividly today at aunt keys. the says las loss of life, the massive destruction the unacceptable violations of human rights and the. busy laws of water, it is vital that the international criminal court and that, that you where and mechanisms conduct that work. so that that can be the real

accountability. what is lula wooden? you can there analissa guitar. it's important that the secretary general has had a chance to witness the crimes committed against the ukrainian people in the suburbs of the city of keith. he has seen what the occupying forces have done against our citizens. this is the true genocide. and it is important to facilitate the establishment of a special international tribunal on russian crimes. years president joe biden says he's asking congress to approve a $33000000000.00 package of additional military support for ukraine. he says it's the only way to keep up the flow of weapons and ukraine and russia, blaming each other for a series of attacks and a break away region of moldova. russia says the incidence of trends in east sphere or attempt to drag the region into conflict. you can follow stories on our website at amazon dot com and back with the news hour in less than 30 minutes. next is inside story. do stay with us here on out is there. ah,

russia has halted, gas applies to poland, unfold guerria. it says the 2 nations refuse to pay an rouble. you fools at blackmail and says it has contingency plans. but can your opinion survive without russian gas? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle. the crisis between russia and europe, sparked by the war in ukraine, has taken yet another turn. this time, moscow has delivered on its promise to hold gas applies to bulgaria and poland for

not paying and roubles. russia's currency, though the auction had been feared by some in the european union, many had already predicted it. bulgaria says it's made alternative arrangements and poland insists is energy supplies unsecure at the start of the conflict, the u. s. so great to provide liquefied natural gas to the you in the coming years and member states working to find alternative long term supplies as well. european leaders, the cooling rushes, moved blackmail, and a promising to respond that's problems announcement of that. it is unilaterally stopping gas deliveries to certain your member states is another provocation from the kremlin. but it comes as no surprise that the kremlin use us fossil fuels to try to black. my last, this is something that your team commission has been preparing for in close coordination and solidarity with member states and international partners. our

response will be immediate. united and coordinated or the european council president shaw. michelle echo echoed a similar message on twitter saying a gas promise decision to cut gas supplies to some e. u. member states is another aggressive unilateral moved by russia. we will remain united and support each other while phasing out russian energy imports. well, some in the you see this as an opportunity to revisit the issue of renewable energy sources. to achieve that, the you would need to raise the share of its green energy to 40 percent of total consumption by 2030. another step would be to collectively reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent from 1990 levels by 2030. and that you may have to divert its attention to alternatives like liquefied natural gas and even more controversially result to reactivating. it's coal power plants will ending its

reliance on russian gas will not be an easy task for europe. you received more than 40 percent of it supplies from russia before the war about a 3rd of that went through ukraine. germany is the biggest single consumer accounting for 55 percent of its total imports. but it's now promised to phase out russian imports bulgaria, which has just been cut off by gas problem receive more than 70 percent of its natural gas from russia. while poland gets more than 45 percent. ah, well, let's bring in our gas now and joining us from berlin, undressed gold fowl, professor at the willy brown school of public policy in moscow. chris, we for chief executive officer at the consultancy macro advisory. and in also, i'll be a commodities analyst at s. e. b, financial services group, a very warm welcome to all of you. let's start this discussion by addressing this issue of actually paying for russia's gas in rubles,

why poland and bulgaria have refused to do it. who else might be doing it and, and why russia, in the 1st place now, a going away from russia to supply assorted national jess, just all to just going by for weeks, who saw that the phone lash, promoted, the most radical planning to diversify it's and the g in force. so basically what they stated that was there will be no, no rush and call in 2 months time. there will be no russian oil by end of $22.00, and it will be no expense loan there. rush natural gas congress, which is about to expire at the end of $22.00. so these are sort of been and this has been important paulding in the home and also gary, of course and, and now was seen at this opportunity to go away from her as a spy source. and now we also see that they have alternatives and bulgaria dogs as well because it gets that's vast. majority of natural gas from russia. exactly,

exactly, that, that's a good point, but bulgaria can get their yes from us over john. now we see that they are signing more long term contracts. acid or john and gas. okay. at, chris says, look at russia and why it's insisting on these rubles payments in the 1st place. i mean, i understand that gas problem already has to sell 80 percent of its foreign currency earnings for russian currency anyway. so why is it insisting on more of these rubel payments? yes, actually just very quickly and was previous speakers said i did the reason why russia has targeted poland and bulgaria is exactly as you said. these are the 2 countries that have been more pro active in looking for alternative sources and making specific arrangements for alternative for gas flies and both countries. where in any case, going to draw russia yes, supplies at the end of the year. so it allows russia, therefore,

opportunistically to make a point to, to bessie said to the other countries, we can do the same to, to you even though the volumes will be a lot more significant. and the impact will be a lot bigger because other countries, like germany, is the et cetera, have not made these arrangement because they're not possible. but as to why now it's look, it's partly, this is something that president putin under government of talked about for a very long time. we're more than 10 years. the for do does fact. they've wanted to break dependency on the dollar as demand currency for rushes, external trade. they wanted more bilateral currency deals. there are some in place with china in rubles and chinese one. ah, so this is something that they've been in any case promoting for a long time. and now it is an opportunity to advance that. but actually the reason why they're doing it specifically now is related to sanctions. because the mechanism that they've proposed are that is put in place, which requires,

for example, a customer in europe to pay, still be able to pay dollars euros. but now into a bank account in gas from bank and gas from bank in converse to roubles and transmits to roubles to, to cast from so the customer can still pay in dollars of yours. but in this mechanism and the ear commissioner saying that this mechanism is sanctions violation because it involves russian central bank and hence their, their post to it's a russia is pushing it now in order to make this sanctions against central. i was so so very uncomfortable for europe and raising the stakes about future sanctions. absolutely, well, it certainly has succeeded there in raising the stakes under, as given the number of countries that are still receiving russian gas at this time, should we, can we assume that some, or even many are actually paying and roubles? well, there are reports that this is already happening, or at least companies, at least 3 or 4 european countries are now paying and roubles precisely long lines

of what chris says, just outline, we don't precisely know whom we have for certainty on hungry from austria. i wouldn't rule out that some german companies are playing the same thing given the role of a difficult situation these days. and i'm not going out. this is, this is going to go about numbers going to go even higher up. i guess the key issue here really is you know, whereas the pressure what, what confesses high the blood pressure from the european side to stay in line. or essentially the pressure to keep up the gas supplies flowing and, and that's where companies find themselves between a rock and a hard place at the moment. absolutely. i will a, that the sanctions and it said it are only as strong as that weakest link. is this russian move to insist on payment in roubles there by violating the sanctions. according to the commission president, is that whacking? i think it's, you know, back to them what the 2nd speaking ministry,

and we saw that he is on the lane and immensely the painting rubles, will be viewed as a sanction violation. right for home at all. so it's more like a psychological thing in a more like a psychological effect on the market. and this is the power play kristin and gas for has been, has been driving last called blow to 6 months and going back and, and i think it, it works in some way because now you see that the conscious which is really relying on the rush natural gas, they've moved. now. payables. now be the consequence. i think now the market now realizes the seriousness of, of the actions. and we see that even though the, the price didn't like, of course, it jumped back up quite a bit, but not, not like a really huge extent. what we saw happening was that the forward curb, the prices are out on the chart going forward. they went up, i think the markets now realizing that this will be no easy and quick fix. right.

so going forward we will have higher prices for longer and i think that's exactly also what the cookie wants. and also one quick comment as well. i think, you know, treating has been delivering on his long term obligation, his long term contracts all the time. you know, he's been playing with this off to audience much so, and he only his goal is to make sure that large consumers of natural gas is cause customers endure. are now going into the new long term contracts, which is about to expire. you know, natural gas is like a marriage, you know, it's like, it's like a, it's like 20 or 2030 a year handshake. you know, it is actually what he was. i think it's sort of works. yes. okay. i would you agree with that, chris? if you kinda sort of perhaps look into putin's mind simply because you're there in moscow. do you think that this is his outlook?

yeah, i think, i think 1st of all, as we say russia, i've used these relationships over the very long term and it is. it's important to note that the russian government, i always made a point that it will always honor a contract. so in this situation, it's actually make it's about making like life difficult for the european customers, rather than perhaps risking the contract. because i, you know, german or other european customers can still pay in dollars or yours as for the contract, but they now have to pay into gas from bank rather than to gasp from and hence to conversate rubles from there. so essentially what russia is saying is to technically the contract is not disrupted, is, is only the payment mechanism that has changed. and therefore, there again, trying to on us, on the, on, on europe and european customers to i will, is e, you could commission president said to break sanctions. but russia itself is saying,

we're actually not doing much to the contracts on changing where you pay not how you pay are to terms of the contract itself. so in that sense, of course, russia is in a strong position, although you really have to always reflect on the fact that russia and europe are in a mutually difficult position. europe needs to gas, but russian needs the money. oh, yeah. so in that sense, you're, you're not going to get a situation where russia will just arbitrarily turn the gas off because it needs to, this is lifeline in order to sustain the economy and provide employment subsidies, so subdued cetera. the situation in russia would be very difficult, difficult, and very different to morrow if those gas flows were cut off and the money stream was disrupted. so in that sense, there's a lot of bluffing. there's a game of brings me shift is a game a chicken. it'll play out over the summer when frankie, the, the energy market is kind of a kind of let, it requires me less volumes. it is a good time to place. and hope here in moscow is as far as i can here,

is that they hope it always, this will be resolved. and just as and finalize before we get to the ocean delivery season, now will be interesting undressed. do you think russia might lose this bluff? we've got the e standing resolute saying it's response is immediate and coordinated. we know that they're coming up with this lee power e plan. is it going to be enough to wind themselves off rushes fossil feels? well, i think there's 2 things. one, i think the jury is out whether the front is standing and holding. i mean, we need a european while according aided european answer to the russian demand. and at the moment a couple of countries are there and the companies are breaking out of that. i think was really, really needed is, is, is a coordinated response. and people working on this, whether it holds the jury is out. but, but then obviously the, the longer term question is, you know, of does, europe needs russia, gas going forward and, you know, 2 months ago or 3 months ago would have said, yes,

well, it is a reality to live with for a couple of years or a decade now, not so sure anymore, because if you look at just essentially, if you, if you connect the dots, the germans are ramping up solar tenders to up to 20 gigawatts by 28. and the dots are, are doubling their, their offshore wind capacity until 2030. we've seen similar moves in italy across europe, companies and government supporting billions into climate measures and the energy condition. so i guess what this really means is that on over the mindset we'll, we'll see a fuel switch to the extent that you can replace molecules in, in heating and, and, and power generation. and that will destroy demand for gas. and that's the reality . russia has live with going forward and, and all of that is massively accelerated at this point. the chris, if this does back fire, does russia risk becoming an economic price?

the u. k. has said it will do and does it risk putin's very future? i think eat me, say back fire. i think it is now absolutely inevitable that europe will buy less russian energy regardless of what happens next, but are regardless of it, you know, what happens to sanctions, et cetera. i think that's now that came now to chains for good, but in russia is it's also a case that russia does not want to be as dependent on europe as its major energy customer either. and for example, since 2014, when, when europe started talking about russia at russian energy risk in moscow, the conversation was about also russia's exposure to european europe as an energy customer. and since 2014, we've seen major projects being built of focusing on signer and gas and oil. and ellen, gee, and under discussion in moscow right now is acknowledging to europe is begun to

become steadily a less important customer. but asia, china, india ticker, are all gone to become bigger customers and compensate. saw the view in moscow is that this is about re balancing it is inevitable to europe will go down as a customer, but it would be compensated with new customer growth elsewhere. that's the way they're looking at her right now. as they're for the view in moscow, is that it's re balancing and it's not going to destroy the economy, but carry it all depends on, on scale and time. and the urgency to decide that this will all be rolled out early . what are your thoughts on that? yeah, no, i let, does really a really interesting point. there's just something we work a lot with our clients as well as trying to understand the re, routing capabilities for worksheets for a, for address to natural gas and what you have seen in just speaking of how it looks like looking right now is that we see we have around the extra capacity going,

going, going east into china, that's around at max $400.00 towers per year if you, compared at what's going flowing into the western european markets through the yamaha pipeline, the north one pipeline and also the major a broader pipeline go to ukraine, that's around $1700.00. so then you get the idea of the scale of the european market. and that's a really, really interesting, interesting topic that i, i totally agree. and russians are really we are reliant lawson adults as well. but we also see that there is expansion plans already, for example, the poorer seberio a huge by going into china, which is, but i'm, that's scheduled to come online at around the $22030.00. it's a, you know, it's more than lasers so, so and it's important to have have that in the have that in mind and just ask them now europe is just too large customer. they're all times there seem to be hinting on 2030. it's going to be interesting to see how many of them can be and will be

sped up to deal with this particular crisis. andreas, if there was ever a time to invest in renewable energy, it's now or rather it was before now with the climate crisis ever present. and now these supplies of fossil fuels uncertain. are we seeing enough effort down that road? well, i mean, i think it's the best time ever to that protect in europe and those places where government support is being run up and where you not only have an economic case, but also a strong security case. now national security, as some politicians would make, would make it fits. i think the one bottleneck here obviously is global supply chains. and what we have seen as is some of the material. and some of the parts that i needed to really ramp up readable capacity are not available because of various bottlenecks across the globe. and because of, you know, the knocking effects of, of a color crisis still. so, you know,

on the one time we have aspiration and cuz this is cases and i guess great opportunity, particular in europe and in the city world. but on the other hand, we have serious constraints when it comes to delivering. and i guess that's, that's something that, that many european markets have to grapple with going forward. and, you know, we talk of filling in a short term gap as you shift from gas with coal. and if we're sticking with the climate crisis for a moment, and this is going to into a massive rise in greenhouse gas emissions. desolate this is, this is really bad for environment. you know, if they go back a few years time, whole, at least last 4 to 5 years, you know, e s g in the environment has been everything on the agenda. it's been all about environmental time. and now it's t that suddenly it's all about the security supply . you know, the cost, whatever it cost you can,

you can burn whatever you find. you can burn, hold the car tires, you can get whatever you, you have. the money doesn't matter. now is all about surviving and then make sure sure, making sure that the industry keeps on delivering as so. so environment and price is set aside. and then you have the secure supply, which is the top of the, again, mass amount. you know, so nicely question just to, you know, sure, there is a, you know, if you're looking to renewables, if you look back in the historical can see that the historical average power price in the european union has been around 40 years per megawatt hours, you know, a coming out of called the they coming out of this bore crisis. we see that you're likely to have a, the average forward price with somewhere between 7100 years per barrel dumps known . this is huge. this is also the cost at a time of call with an appetite with war. we have been having increased the price is $44.00 carbon carbon cost. so, definitely going back to the question regarding renewables. this is really big business for renewables and you will have that they will basically be

a massive cash machine and building renewables and generating power from rooms at these levels to the 3rd. i have to leave an interesting nonetheless, crisis, i'm much dry for renewables in russia. it's, you know, it's been a really interesting debate in russia up to, up to now. where on the one side you get the very powerful, kind of hydrocarbon sectors, big oil companies, big gas companies, essentially have been saying that russia should take its time about moving in to renewables to the world. will still need oil and gas, you know, right into the middle of the next decade and russia needs to invest more in oil and gas supply. and then you've had the emerging, of course, the forest talking about renewables and you know, debility of fine reduction. so it's been a big debate and a big battle in russia. clearly, you know, one of the consequences of this conflict will be an acceleration and investment renewables. that's absolutely clear. we have simply no idea as to how that will

play out in russia as a theme. and also when the crisis ends. but for sure, it's something that will again, have to be stressful before crisis. it was a debate, but without any tier conclusion. under as compared is and they say one of the problems with renewables is the cost and that the government must protect the very poorest from energy price rises. i mean, it would gain the energy price rises anyway, with russia invasion of the crate and then, and stopping the flow of gas to european nations. but what can government do to protect consumers? well, i think there's a couple of things. i think the 1st thing that government should be doing is incentivize savings and they're not doing enough at the moment. government across europe rely on the price to deliver savings. that settings will not necessarily always come through simply because the price of 5 to some extent. because the

signal is a direct, but indirect. sometimes there is no a city on the demand side responding to price hikes. and so the government can do a lot of things. and i would start with industry just to make sure we don't have end up in a situation where rationing is important and becomes of the name of the game. and i think european governments can do a lot more here to shelter to shield consumers. but on the other hand, you know, we have, well, a whole policy tool box to do that and we have tested it during cove, it to think about checks that were sent to poor families or lower income households to offer some of the consequences you can do this in a very targeted way, you can lower taxes on electricity for instance, and, and that is a direct subsidy if you will, to lower income household simply because they are spending over personal share of their income on energy services. and so, so there's lots of things that you can do. what you should not be doing is, is essentially just, you know,

regulate the price across the board and just make sure the price hikes are no longer felt by consumers. because that in the end, you neither trigger a savings nor you know the right people. ok. such an interesting discussion today. thank you very much. so what have you for joining us. address gold found chris that we found a validate and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. there's al jazeera dot com and to further discussion to go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you know, there during the conversation on twitter handle is a j inside story from me laura kyle and the entire team here. and so it's my for now ah,

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this is al jazeera ah ha ha ha robin. you're watching the out as ever, nissan life, while headquarters here in doha, coming up in the next 60 minutes. ukraine is an epi centered of unbearable heart h and pain. i witnessed that very vividly today at aunt keith. the un secretary general described sheer tragedies as he's witnessed on his visit to your.