traffic as they try to lead to carter, one of the world's most densely populated cities. but many say it's worth the trouble sat in any family has a 12 hour mini bus ride ahead of them. their band, i want to show my youngest daughter to my mother. she has never met my baby because of the pandemic. i'm so happy they can finally move, but not more than 14000000 people are expected to leave greater jakarta in the holiday period. it's the 1st time since the pandemic began that indonesians have been permitted to travel back to their home towns. for each celebration, local authorities are just allowing the travel but facilitating it as wells by providing free transport options is a festive atmosphere as the travelers start their long awaited holidays and begin to re unite with their loved ones. jessica washington out to sierra to carter. ah,

this is all there are these little story, the un secretary general and 3rd, a garage as described ukraine as an epi center of unbearable pain. after meeting president vladimir polanski, russian forces hit key with new miss all strikes while garage was in the city. reciprocal brain regular, they walked wrong. why? president lansky says and operation will begin on friday to get to vivian's out of the as of style steel plant and besieged mario pole. an estimated 1000 people are trapped there along with 2000 ukrainian soldiers. i sure has kept up airstrikes despite an agreement in principle, to provide safe corridors for evacuations. brushes defense ministry says it used a submarine in the black sea to launch missiles that ukrainian military targets is the 1st time it's reported using submarine strikes since the war began. there were some scuffles in the early hours between israeli police and a group of young palestinians that they say rioting and throwing stones in the

courtyard outside the mall. directions have been falling since the government opposed to strict locked down on its economic hub earlier this month. but in the capital, beijing restrictions of being tightened further. 49 new cases were to take to bear on thursday. was the headlines. you can always go to l just there, a dot com for more, but we'll have another round up live without russian guy. this is inside story. ah, the union many had already predicted it. bulgaria says it's made all tons of arrangements and poland and fists, its energy supplies, unsecure. at the thought of the conflict, the u. s. so great to provide liquefied natural gas to the you in the coming years

and member states working to find alternative long term supplies as well. your opinion leaders calling rushes move black mail and promising to respond from the announcement that it is unilaterally stopping gas deliveries. to certain jo, member states is another provocation from the kremlin. but it comes as no surprise that the kremlin uses fossil fuels to try to black. my last, this is something the europe in commission has been preparing for in close coordination and solidarity with member states and international partners. our response will be immediate. united and coordinated or the european council president shall. michelle echo echoed a similar message on twitter saying a gas promise decision to cut gas supplies to some e u. member states is another aggress. and that you may have to divert its attention to alternatives like liquefied natural gas and even more controversially

resort to reactivating. it's coal powered almost to phase out russian imports. bulgaria, which has just been cut off by gas prom receives more than 70 percent of its natural gas from russia. while poland gets low level b, commodities analyst at sep financial services group, a very warm welcome to all of you. let's start this discussion by addressing this issue. busy of actually now going away from russia as a supplier source, national jess, just also just going by 4 weeks, we saw that the call marcia promoted, the most radical planning to diversify its energy in force. so basically what they stated that was there will be no, no rush to call implement doroty of natural gas from russia. exactly, exactly. that, that's a good point, but bulgaria can get their yes from us over john. now we see that they are, it's on the more long term contracts with john and gas. okay. a chris says, look at russia and why it's insisting on these rubles payments in the 1st place. i

mean, i under more of these rubel payments. yes, actually just very quickly on with previous speakers said that the reason why russia has targeted poses of bulgaria is exactly as you said. these are 2 countries that have been more pro active in looking for alternative sources. volumes will be a lot more significant and the impact will be a lot bigger because other countries, like germany, is the et cetera, have not made these arrangement because they're not possible. but as to why now it's look, it's partly, this is something that president putin under government have talked about for a very long time. more than 10 years to do is to put in place, which requires, for example, a customer in europe to pay still be able to pay dollars, who euros, but now into a bank account in gas from bank in order to make this sanctions against the central bank i wish i would say very uncomfortable for europe and raising the stakes about

future sanctions. absolutely, well, it certainly has succeeded there in raising the stakes. andrea has given the number of countries that are still receiving russian gaffe at this time. should we? these 3 or 4 european countries are now paying and roubles precisely along the lines of what chris says. just outline, we don't precisely know whom we have fair certainty on hungry from austria. i wouldn't rule out that some german companies are playing the same thing given the rather difficult situation these days. and whereas the fresh what, what confession is higher, the political pressure from the european side to stay in line or essentially the but the pressure to keep up the gas supplies flowing and, and that's where companies find themselves between a rock and a hard place at the moment absolutely, i lay that the sanctions and it said it are only as strong as that weakest link. is this russian move to insist on payment in roubles there by violating e sanctions, according to the commission president. is that whacking?

i think it's, you know, back to them what the 2nd speaking ministry and i, we sort of, he is wonder, lane and immensely at the painting roubles will be viewed as a sanctuary. violation. right. and then, and i think that's what's driving the price. you know, that was driving the price because full and as a loan is not a major dis, no major issue for a foreign poem at all. so it's more like a psychological thing. it's more like a psychological effect on the market. and this is the power play through streaming gast, i think now the market realizes the seriousness of because of the actions. and we said, even though the price didn't like, of course, it jumped back up quite a bit, but not, not like a really huge extent. what we saw happening was that the forward curve, the prices are out on the chart going forward. they went up exactly also what the quickly want. and also one quick comment as well. i think, you know,

treating has been delivering on his long term obligation. his long term contracts all the time, you know, he's been playing with the spot. walden says much so, and he only his goal is to make sure that the, his large consumers of natural gas is customers in europe are now going into new long term contracts, which is about to expire. you know, natural gas is like a marriage. you know, it's like, it's like a, it's like 202030 or 30 year handshake. you know, it is as actually what he wants. i think it's sort of works. yes. okay. i, would you agree with that, chris? if you can, that sort of perhaps look into putin's mind simply because you're there in moscow. do you think that this is his outlook? yeah, i think, i think, 1st of all, as we say russia, i've used these relationships with a very long term, and it is important to note that the russian government, i always made a point that it will always honor a contract. so in this situation,

it's actually make, it's about making like life difficult for the europe in customers, rather than traps risking the contracts because russia is in a strong position. although you really have to always reflect on the fact that russia and europe are in a mutually difficult position. europe needs to gas, but russian needs to money. oh, yeah. so in that sense, you're, you're not going to get a situation where russia will just arbitrarily talking delivery season. now, be interesting, unfair, do you think russia might lose this bluff? we got the e standing resolute saying it's response is immediate and coordinated. we know that they're coming up with this li pallet e plan. is it going to be enough to win themselves off rushes fossil feels? well, i think there's 2 things. one, i think the jury is out whether the front is standing and holding. i mean, we need a european well, according aided european answer to on this whether it holes the jury is out. but

then obviously, the, the longer term question is, you know, does, europe needs russia gas going forward? and, you know, 2 months ago or 3 months ago would have said, yes, well, it is a reality to live with for a couple of years or a decade. now, not so sure anymore, because if you look at just essentially, if you, if you connect the dots, the germans are ramping up solar tenders to up to 20 gigawatts by 28. the dots are, are doubling their, their offshore wind capacity until 2030 we've, we've seen similar moves in italy across europe, companies and government supporting billions into climate measures and the energy transition. so i guess what this really means is that on of the demand side, we'll, we'll see a fuel switch to the extent that you can replace molecules in, in heating and, and, and power generation. and that will destroy demand for gas. and that's the reality

. russia have live with going forward and, and all of that is massively accelerated at this point. there, chris, if this does back fire, does russia risk becoming an economic price? the u. k. has said it will do and does it risk putin's very future? i think eat me safe back fire. i think it is now absolutely inevitable that europe will buy less russian energy regardless of what happens next. but our garza is, you know, what happens to sanctions, et cetera. i think that's now that came now to change for good. ah, but in russia is it's also a case that russia does not want to be as dependent on europe as it's major energy customer, either. and for example, since 2014, when, when europe started talking about russia at russian energy risk in moscow, the conversation was about also russia's exposure to european europe as an energy

customer. and since 2014, we've seen major projects been built of focusing on china and gas and oil. and ellen, gee, and under discussion in moscow right now is acknowledging to europe is began to become steadily a less importance customer. but asia, china, india ticker, are all gone to become bigger customers and compensate. so the view in moscow is that this is about re balancing it is inevitable to europe will go down as a customer, but it would become to say with new customer growth elsewhere. that's the way they're looking at her right now. as they're for the view in moscow, is that it's re balancing and it's not gonna destroy the economy, but carry it all depends on, on scale and time. and the urgency to decide that this will all be rolled out of early. what are your thoughts on that? yeah, no, i know i let does really a really interesting point. and as this is something we work a lot with our clients as well as trying to understand the re,

routing capabilities for worksheets for a for, and rushed to natural gas. and what you have seen in speaking of how it looks like looking right now is that we see we have around the extra capacity going, going, going east into china, that's around at max $400.00 towers per year. if you compared at what's going flowing into the western european markets, through the jamal pipeline, the north one pipeline, and also the major brotherhood pipeline. go to ukraine, that's around 1700. so then you get the idea of the scale of the european market and as a really, really interesting, interesting topic that i, i totally agree and russians are really we're reliant lawson adults as well. but we also see that there is expansion plans already. for example, the poorer seberio a huge i go into china, which is, but i'm, that's scheduled to come online at around the $22030.00. it's a, you know, it's more than late. it's so so, and it's important to have,

have that in the have that in mind. i just asked them now europe is just too large customer. they're all plans there seems to be hinting on 2013. it's going to be interesting to see how many of them can be and will be sped up to deal with this particular crisis. andreas, if there was ever a time to invest in renewable energy, it's now or rather it was before now with the climate crisis ever present. and now these supplies of fossil fuels uncertain. are we seeing enough effort down that road? well, i mean, i think it's the best time ever to that protect in europe and places where government support is being run up. and where are you not only have an economic case, but also a strong security case. now national security, as some politicians would make, would make it spit. i think the one bottleneck here obviously is global supply chains. and what we have seen as is some of the material. and some of the parts that i needed to really ramp up readable capacity are not available because of

various bottlenecks across the globe. and because of, you know, the not going effects of, of crisis still. so, you know, on the one times we have aspiration and this is cases and i guess great opportunity, particular in europe and in the city world. but on the other hand, we have serious constraints when it comes to delivering. and i guess that's, that's something that, that many european markets have to grapple with going forward and relate with the talk of filling in a short term gap. as you shift from gas with coal. and if we're sticking with the climate crisis for a moment, and this is going to into a massive rise in greenhouse gas emissions. desolate this is, this is really, really bad for environment. you know, if you go back a few years time, you know, at least last 4 to 5 years, you know, e s g in environment has been everything on the agenda. it has been all about the

environmental time. and now it's t that certainly it's all about the security supply. you know, the cost, whatever it cost you can, you can burn whatever you find. you can burn, hold the car tires, you can go to whatever you, you have the money. it doesn't matter. now it's all about surviving in the mix and making sure that the industry keeps on delivering as so. so environment and price is set aside. and then you have the secure supply, which is the top of the, again, the last amount. you know. so back to the question, just to, you know, see here is a, you know, if you're looking to renewables, if you look back in the historical can see at the historical average power price in the european union has been around 40 years per megawatt hours, you know, a coming out of call the they coming out of this bore crisis. we see that you're likely to have a the average forward price with somewhere between 7100 years per barrel dumps. no, this is huge. this is also the cost at a time of call with an appetite with war. we have been having increased the price

spaces for renewables. you will have. they will basically be a massive cash machine and building renewables and generating power from roots at these levels that the 3rd $530.00. but interesting nonetheless, chris is a much drive for renewables in russia. it's, you know, it's been a really interesting debate in russia up to, up to now. we're on the one side, you've got the very powerful kind of hydrocarbon sectors, big oil companies to big gas companies. essentially have been saying that russia should take its time about moving into renewables that the world will still need oil and gas, you know, right into the middle of the next decade. and russian needs to invest more 8 and a big battle. and in russia clearly, you know, one of the, the consequences of this conflict will be an acceleration investment renew. that's absolutely cheer protect consumers. well, i think there's a couple things. i think the 1st thing that government should be doing is incentivize savings and they're not doing enough at the moment. government across

europe rely on the price to deliver savings, but savings will not necessarily always come through simply because the price is hard to some extent. because the signal isn't direct, but indirect. sometimes there is no way to city on the demand side responding to price some of the name of the game. and i think european governments can do a lot more here to show to shield consumers. but on the other hand, you know, we have a whole policy tool box to do that and we have tested it during cove, it to think about checks that were sent to poor families or lower income households to offer some of the consumer income household. simply because they are spending over horshal share of their income on energy services. and so, so there's lots of things that you can do. what you should not be doing is, is essentially just, you know, regulate the price across the board and just make sure the price hikes are no

longer felt by consumers. because that in the end, you neither a trigger savings nor you know, the right people. ok, such an interesting discussion today. thank you very much. so what have you for? joining us. address gold found chris that we found a validate and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again. any time by visiting our website is out there dot com. and to find a discussion, to go to our facebook page that facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. it was there during the conversation on twitter handle is a j inside story. from me laura kyle and the entire team here. and so it's my for now. ah.

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