jessica baldwin al jazeera london masses space x crew is heading back after a 6 month mission to the international space station. the dragon spacecraft as expects to splash down off the coast of florida before astronauts 3 americans and one german and conducted hundreds of research projects. they also welcomed the 1st space taurus to the i ss and ukrainian nurse who lost both her legs, has shared a video of her 1st dance inside a hospital ward with her husband. ah ok. santa valentino was walking home with victor vasey live in the eastern new hunts greta, and that when a landline exploded, victor was not hurt. and they were married on monday. ah! without there, these are our top stories. russia says it'll hold fire for the day at

a steel plant and sell the new crane allowing traps civilians to get out there amongst ukrainian soldiers at the other style facility and merrier pole who are making a last stand against russian forces have been confrontations between israeli forces and palestinian protests as at the alex or mos dozens of palestinians gathered up the compound to after jewish visits were allowed to resume. stephanie decker has more from occupied east jerusalem. what we've seen in the past summer we have seen today, but i have to say on the, on the smaller scale today is that these really security forces will sort of surround the palestinians. either push them inside the could be mosque or, or surround them to try and, you know, keep them from either chanting at these groups as inflation in the u. s. heads or 40 year high and the cost of living increases. the federal reserve has responded by raising interest rates by half. a percentage point is the biggest increase in 20 years. flooding is bringing widespread destruction to afghanistan at least 18

people have been killed and 30 injured after heavy rain hit 11 provinces. the deputy minister of natural disaster management says a 100 homes have been destroyed and many livestock lost. a tornado has damaged homes and businesses in the united states and there are warnings of more to come. and he say some people were trapped briefly after the storm hit buildings on wednesday. near oklahoma city. the head of the world health organization has warned that access to safe abortions is crucial to saving lives. statement by tedra adam ad gabrielle causes follows the leaking of a document, suggesting the u. s. supreme court may soon reverse national access to abortion. and columbia has expedited the leader of its biggest crime going to the us to face numerous charges. darrow antony you saga, also known as otter. neil was arrested in october after 7 years on the run. he's the head of the gulf clam upstate. now,

with all the headlines we're back with more news after inside story to say with us . how and why did susan become so obsessed with this law through giving them a tool to hold corrupt individuals and human rights abusers accountable? they're going to rip this deal apart if they take the white house of 2025. what is the world hearing what we're talking about by american today? your weekly take on us politics and society. that's the bottom line. sweden and finland say they want to join nato, but despite warnings from moscow with washer invasion of ukraine. are those countries on the threat? and what will nato membership mean for the nordic region? this is inside story. ah. hello, welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan. before the russian invasion of ukraine,

nato membership barely featured in political debates in finland and sweden. but moscow's actions and nuclear threats may have gained the western military alliance to new members. the leaders of both countries have the support of germany, where they recently met chancellor all of shots to talk about security in the region. moscow's repeatedly warned of serious consequences if finland or sweden joined the alliance of the decision will be neither easy nor quick if they apply the parliaments of all 30 nato countries. b to approve new members. and that could take time is a by lender and shy. so if these 2 countries decide that they want to join nato, they can count on our support. the members of the government made that clear here in the talks. and i think that is an important signal. in any case, both countries can always rely on germany support at a godless of nato membership. and in the period before our decision is made on such

membership, will the leaders of finland and sweden say the decision will come down to what the respective parliaments think is in the best security interests. as russia romilly claims the right to dictate the choices of others, nato's open door policy is even more important for us all to decide on whether to apply for nato membership or continue on our current path. that is the discussion we are having now in our national spoil parliament, whether finance decision willoughby coordinator or not, it will be based on our will to contribute to our common security. my government is right now to get it with all the political part is in the swedish parliament carrying out the supplementary security policy analysis. and this will be presented on may 13 and

a miss that way. we're la. i have very goods and thorough discussions and a lot as is within this group. denalis is include in tonight, future international lead defense partnerships for sweden and including a discussion on ne. so, and all auctions are on the table. now, before we get to our discussion, let's quickly remind you of what nato actually is. it stands for the north atlantic treaty organization. it's the world's biggest military alliance. it was founded in 1949, partly due to a perceived threat posed by the soviet union during the cold war. but it's not stop expanding since the fall of the block. it's grown from 17 countries in 199232 day. it pools weapons and resources from its member countries that include battleships, warplanes, missiles, and more than 3000000 personnel. if a nato members attacked the others, consider that an act of violence against them all. the. so let's bring in our guests for the day from moscow

were joined by dimitri babich, a political analyst at in else me the internet media project based in moscow from helsinki and mcnamira is visiting research fellow at the finish institute of international affairs and from brussels. we're joined by international affairs strategist nicholas white gentlemen. welcome to inside story dmitri, let's start with you. how will russia react? if the 2 countries join nature, it's threatened to deploy nuclear weapons to the baltic border region and colored in grad, should those threats be taken seriously? well, so it was basically where it made buyer for me. so i wouldn't read too much into the basement on iraq. very upset about the possible membership. we didn't the nato reminder that during the cold war relations with people and they were actually good in

fact, the membership both being much of a team board. we've been to go over the last year. all of them directly to be in all of them. russia was basically almost officially named there are 2 groups or maybe not on the basis. and they all have a chance to do with very quickly. so a strategically this membership will be market would change. so i think most of the products from most reach of these was supposed to happen. i think it took a call when he took his decision. rick. oh, do you think that's right. the president puts the taken this into account. i mean, how likely is it that sweden and finland will become they?

so members in the near future, is there any doubt that they soon will be? well, it looks more and more probable by the date right here. now, i agree, not surprisingly, are with dimitry in the sense that i don't think it will. it will make a very, very big difference because finland and sweden being very intensely, are cooperating with nato for the past decade or more. what i do crucially, i disagree with dimitry in the sense that these exercises on these drills to which they have been cooperating through. i have been directed against russia, nato, and indeed the independent defense fosters of finland and sweden. i have been offensive and defensive up against the russia that has proven itself. i ever more evangelist. i over the past decade. i'm so that is how

things have been how things are now that boats the sense in finland and sweden is that although strong there in the independent defense capacity is no longer ah enough of it, of an insurance policy i am considering ah, the very brutal aggression ah, that we are seeing are from russia, ukraine at present, and they need an extra layer of deterrents. ah, and they need to be, ah, never again, alone and nato's. i collected the fence, offers them on that option. so it is very, very likely, ah, that both states will apply for nato membership within the next few weeks. and, ah, the ratification process is, is very likely to begin at nato's madrid summit in june. ok to make sure you're

giving you a chance to come back on that and remember. but let's bring in nicholas white that in brussels. nicholas, both countries are officially not aligned militarily. other they both as, as we've been hearing, become nato partners taking passing exercises and exchanging intelligence of both countries now permanently abandoned. that previous stance of strict neutrality. yes . well, if you talk to finish and swedish politicians, they will, they will object that they had abandoned this some time ago. that they, they were no longer being acquisitions as they had been in the cold war. but that they were very definitely collaboration with nato, from an external perspective. and they simply won't convert this to internal to, to being part of the team rather than cheering on the sidelines. but this really goes to the harsh of the ho current conflict. and this began because the, the, with the war began because russia was unhappy about ukraine, does things self determination and choosing its own path in terms of security,

in terms of external alliances. now we see the lesson that finland and sweden are drawing, is not that they should take russian concerns into account for that they should make these decisions autonomously themselves. and i think it's very interesting that the, the major an external o intention of the russian war against you brain has backfired quite spectacularly . okay, dimitri and i don't one of the what to come back on on what you heard. and those 2 answers that let me put it to you that but rushes foreign minister ministry rather the spokes person to the foreign ministry insisted that sweden and finland are being dragged into nato by the us of a well to a certain extent. but so i think this is something that i'm willing to meet the euro exchange, and i think this change and all the wars, they're actually no more. you go, you know, for many decades the dream will russia, but actually i was going euro or neutral peaceful compass. this is,

your object doesn't exist anymore. i mean switch is no longer and you know, it's a bank account or is it going to sanctions against sweden? is obviously all been phases. surprisingly, you know, the central ation when they have a meeting. so they are 40 mean in the organization. when they remember they say that directed, you know, when you have some meetings of natal, this is all about russian press chinese trap. so unfortunately it is easier to find now you go compet, surprisingly in the previously victoria and all the europe asked for reasons why russia basically

continued the warning to be frank, the team. well, no way nickel was with this. busy for him, doors, and so the police were killed. oh, of course it was not a beautiful soul. there was a 1000 in 2022 present to my mind, wrongfully decided either to disagree with the view that actually, you know, russia wasn't dependent them sex. no, russia was quite happy with your brain becoming a good relationship and you might that table with 2000 but russia was going to take the thing was tied to russia. you know,

we are not thinking independent very good, was good. the same story with the need to exercise. and been going to need in been said that these are a lot of their own, their own defensive. again, who is feel and again cool is with them against these repairs. so you said all that was going to defend them. so again, i was always talking. this is sad because of the region should be original. and unfortunately, it made the membership, it will be a region of it will, it will be a region to walk. okay. oh and do you want to come back on that? particularly dimitris assertion that the war in the ukraine began in 2014 with what he describes as a violent qu. we can go back longer than that and we, but we have

a phrase in english once bitten, twice shy, and we can go back to the war in, in 2008 in georgia and the efforts of the obama administration after death. and we can go back into nato enlargement. in this effort to extend a liberal democratic peace and prosperity, nato did something very unorthodox in the sense that it had it put in the pledge of no troops, no new eastwards. so essentially, to reassure russia to, to show russia it timed in a way. and it didn't have very strong provisions up against russia. borders, which of course, the baltic states on the polls had been highlighting for many, many years on and nato to, to reassure russia. i stayed on persisting with this,

i ride up against or right up until i the illegal annexation of crimea in 2014 and even then the nato readiness action plan on operational atlantic result. and later on the enhanced forward presence. these deployments have been very, very light and scalable. and nato has relied for it's the turns on mobilization, keeping most of its troops in the west and only saying that it will call them all call them in the region. if the security situation on deteriorates further on russia displays even more aggression on. so this idea that nato is, is, is, is the cause of this major build up. but russia are, is fearful of is a red herring, or is featuring in the russian narrative as they attempt to

justify their revisionism and their efforts to re consolidate and their sphere of influence, of former glory in central eastern europe. something that finland and sweden, i do not want to be part of on this is what is on propelling on there efforts towards nato right now. ok. 2 questions for nicholas starting with what will sweden and finland bring to to the alliance? just how, how useful are they to european security o sweden, films, of course, very impressive, military bill, free establishments, certainly on par with any of the decent western european countries. so from that point of view, they bring a very professionalized, well experience force of personnel. and of course they also close the

strategic gap around the baltic sea. the geographical dimension is very, very important here that they basically turned the baltic into, into a nato lake, which it previously was not. so it's very helpful, can they, so for to have them in. so what are the dangers then? for the white baltic region for estonia, for latvia, for lithuania, ah, the baltic states south of finland, of course, which also border russia. bearing in mind that we've got the, the exclaim of colin and grad sandwiched between poland and an lithuania. all of these countries have been very concerned about the potential for aggression from russia since their independence in 19191991. and all of them, with the exception of sweden and finland, had already made the determination that the best way to preserve that independence was to join nato. as i said earlier, this conflict began because russia did not accept that ukraine was an independent

state. it's absolutely clear if you look at what present patients said or of the russian politicians have said, this is about whether countries have the right to choose their own future. finland and sweden of now decided they will choose their own future and their choosing their future within nato. and russia needs to accept that. that is how the world works. dmitri, russia needs to accept. that's how the world works. the country's deputy foreign minister said that sweden, sweden and finland joining nature would seriously worse and the military situation in the region and lead to the most undesirable consequences. what was meant by that? well, i think nicholas was quite right when he called the warriors and made to a league. or whenever you crown over all c o, o, you know, controlled by just one needed you walk. this is all is back like woman in by back. see you there 7 canadian center, the same story here, or in fact, oh,

the image of sweden and finland in rush is you where you will all be ins with that . and of course there is a 0 chance or where military solution. why? wonder, oh, would you use against ukraine? simply because info at sweden behave march racially than the corolla and breezily nationalist, ukrainian regime that established itself by force in vogue which he so i don't expect for anything. what will happen you breaker. but i expect a lot of speed and i would start to walk away local our side to remind you that every year in sweden there is a bar on the way of all the so called russian ok. there was only one soviet summary, that was once ye, all in the, in this week, one of them i know we get, we cover. all right, so this is just one example right here and it can be

a number. let me just throw that to nicholas very briefly, but you want to respond to that nicholas? to be true, you say so cold russian submarines if not russians submarines for order from us. you know, it was just, i was, this was just why for person lead seen the summary of there was no, i mean, i'd almost never do justice. there are no graces had to rush and they never really used. never been here. ok, i don't get bogged out into into a robe about submarines, particularly owen, here in town in helsinki. to what extent is this nato membership bid bid being driven unusually by finland here. that sweden is, is actually being swept along into the alliance because of its eastern neighbors desire to join. well, i wouldn't say any one is being swept along. here are these states, nato was a democratic alliance on,

and prospective members have to apply for membership. so all states will make their own a sovereign decisions based on, on their strategic calculations. ah, what jess ah, you're right out. been on is at the front runner. so to say are among the 2 states and things have been, says mich here throughout the spring, i mean, before february 24th, where we're russia launched. it's large scale military a sold. ah, it's a legal assault on ukraine. i'm before dot days, only, only a number of weeks before they finish prime minister, santa marine said, i'm not finished. nato membership was very unlikely to happen. i during her tenure, that is what she said. what? because all of russia's brutal aggression i that is displayed. i in ukraine,

over the past. i'm number of months. i the finish public. i'm has now flipped. it used to be i, you know, in the last number of years 60 percent against i natal membership, 20 percent for the rest. don't know. now it's more than 60 percent for 20 percent against on the rest. don't know. so there's been a, a reserve sounding reversal in, in favor all nato member ship. i'm driven by rushers aggression, not driven by anything else as finland and the finish public. i now believe, ah, russia is no longer taking calculated risks. it's. it's taking a major major risks as barack obama reflected on putin's actions in ukraine. hootin as bet the farm on this very, very aggressive. i'm unfair not needs the maximum, the parents option and the maximum,

ah collective defense option so that it's never, you know, villain has quite an impressive right or finding a loan. but it still, that is not a desirable option and been undesired to be never again alone. and that is very much a bottom up process that is occurring here in finance right now. and that is what is propelling. i'm the big writer, finish nato membership forward. i'm sort of took to cut you short of time as is against us here. couple of more questions for, for nicholas. what changes nicholas would membership require both countries to make in terms of, of foreign and security policy? it's a good question and the answer is that by and large, these changes have already been made. oh, it will require finland and sweden to align their military policy, their procurement policy, their general stance of engagement in the outside world with the north atlantic

council with the north atlantic treaty organization. but the fact is, as you mentioned in your introduction that finland and sweden have already been largely participating in they so exercises. so to a large extent, disintegration has already happened. what we're looking at is the formalization of a relationship, as until now has been provisional, am's, and transactional, and shifting it to towards something. this is more fundamental and strategic. ok, a will nicholas. both countries act in unison regarding nato membership. could you perhaps foreseeable a situation where 11 joins without the other and, and how long will the ratification process take? i mean, always prime minister is on record of saying, oh it's, it's going to take a matter of weeks 2 weeks. he said that she said it's not realistic. yes. first of all, i would not like to tell any fitting that their destiny is linked to sweeten, let alone vice versa. of the 2 processes will proceed independently, but in parallel,

it would be the least surprising outcome if the 2 of them end up joining at the same time. but other outcomes are of course possible the ratification process. first of all, everybody really is in favor of this, so it won't take all that long. having said that, in some countries, there are formalities that simply take a while to get through the presence of croatia. as mentioned that he wants to make the process conditional on a completely different issue. the reform reflection law. in bosnia, i don't think that's just sustainable position, but we'll have to be overcome. i would have thought it's likely take less than a year. i can't really see why it would drive home from much longer than that even in the most convoluted parliamentary systems. ok, gentlemen, there we must leave it. thank you to all of you for being on the program today to me to ravage in moscow and mcmurry in helsinki and of course in brussels. nicholas white. as always, thank you for watching. don't forget, you can see the program again at any time, but just by going to the website at our 0 dot com for further discussion,

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