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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  May 10, 2022 8:30am-9:01am AST

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it by torque, a subsidiary of daimler trucking. it's been a really yes, yes. it's going to change. sounds like you're not talking about entirely replacing human driver. absolutely. now, we're here to help companies with rob and attention to fill the void and help them . what's in it with new pandemic variance in no end to a ukraine war. that slowed energy distribution that will likely continue to leave those drivers still. manning the wheel bracing for what comes next? john henderson, al jazeera rogers, arkansas. ah, this is al jazeera, these are the top stories, the situations tense, but com and the shoreline can capital colombo, after a night of violence. the source 7 people killed, including a member of parliament, wible demonstrations escalated into st battles, sparked by the worst economic crisis in decades. the prime minister, a step down,
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but his brother, the president, is under pressure to go to the now fernandez, has more from colombo. at the moment from water we've seen on the streets in colombo, are things seem to have settled to some extent. obviously there is a curfew extended to wednesday morning. that is a heavy military presence on our way. here we got stopped at multiple checkpoints, manned by the air force, some by the army, and the navy is out. the police is out. so very much, those celtic scenes where you saw a protest says a sort of taking all the law into their own hands. they seem to have retreated back into their homes, that anger, that frustration that really spilled over onto the streets seems to have abated for the moment, the marco's family may be returning to power in the philippines on official results of the presidential election. so just ferdinand marco's junior could become the
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next leader 36 years after his father was overthrown in a revolution. in south korea, a new president has been sworn in former prosecutor units of your in his speech hewn called for the complete de nuclear zation of north korea. ukraine's military says at least one person's been killed, and 5 have been wounded in russian air strikes on the port city of odessa. it says, a shopping center and a warehouse were hit. a fight between rival gangs at a prison in ecuador has left at least 44 inmates dead. the violence broke out after a gang leader was transferred to the bella vista jail in santo domingo. demonstrations of being held in mexico city to demand justice for the rising number of journalists have been murdered to women. our director and a reporter was shot dead in the city of vera cruz on monday. those are the headlines coming up next analogy 08, counting the cost. good, bye. teaching. now you can watch out to see were english streaming light on nike
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channels. plus thousands of our programs. award winning documentaries and debt supports subscriber t u t dot com, forward slash al jazeera english ah . hello, i'm adrian finnegan. this is counting the cost on how to 0, your wiki, look at the world of business and economics. this week, the stakes arising of the battle over russian energy, putin turns off, the gas taps and the e. you propose as a ban on moscow's oil imports by the end of the year. but what will the energy war cost? also this week, russia's rouble hits a 2 year high, and it's so called fortress economy is believed to be holding up so far. but has moscow really, whether the worst of sanctions,
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netflix loses subscribers for the 1st time in a decade and cnn plus shuts down its platform just a month off to launch. how viewers had enough and is the whole streaming industry at risk? ah, washes president vladimir putin is making good on his threat to turn off the supply of natural gas to europe. supplies to bulgaria, and poland have been halted. often. they refuse to pay for gas in roubles. other european countries may also be cut off within weeks. if they to reject russia's demand, the e. u has dismissed the movers, blackmail that is under pressure to cut the cord on russian energy. the block has proposed a complete ban on all washing oil imports. by the end of the year. we will make sure that we phase out russian oil in an orderly fashion. so in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and at the same time, be very careful that we minimize the impact on the global market. with all these
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steps, we are depriving the russian economy from its ability to diversify and to modernize who teen wanted to wipe out ukraine from the map. and she were clearly not sexy, but natural gas has yet to be targeted with sanctions. russia demanded the european companies pay for gas in euro's to gas, prong bank, which would then convert them into roubles in a secondary account. the e rejected the ultimate him saying that it violates sanctions, but several european thumbs had reportedly opened accounts, outcast prom bank, to meet russia's payment demand, poland, and bulgaria, which refused to pay an rouble say that they could cope without russian gas. sophia says that it's made alternative arrangements while warsaw insists that it's energy supplies are secure. however, other countries could be hit hard if russia cut supplies. germany's gas storage
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facilities are only $33.00 and a half percent full. italy's at 35 percent and hunger is a just 19.4 percent. but europe in governments, a fast tracking regulation that requires gas stores to be filled to 80 percent capacity before next winter. they've also set a year and deadline to cut 2 thirds of gas imports from russia and plan to eliminate it completely by 2027 or more liquefied natural gas is being shipped from qatar and the u. s. piped natural gas imports from countries like norway and algeria will be increased and the deployment of renewable energy will be accelerated among other measures taken to decrease the dependence on russian energy . russia provides 40 percent of europe's gas and 25 percent of its oil. and the cost of some $850000000.00 a day. and that accounts for at least 40 percent of brushes revenues? well the price of gas search by as much as 20 percent off the gas prom suspended
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deliveries. and the euro's value fell below $1.06. for the 1st time in 5 years. europe's leaders say that they can't afford the consequences of an immediate boycott and the divided over the ban on russian energy imports. well, let's discuss this further with michael bradshaw, a professor of global energy at work business school. he georgia, now from coventry, and the u. k. michael european countries can't just stop using wash and gas overnight. and yet here they are faced with this dilemma of how to keep their supplies going well, not breaching russian sanctions. how are they going to do that? very difficult. i mean, i think it's, it's a deliberate play. bye bye. glad to drive division. so, you know, there is a very technical issue about how they should make their payment payments to into get from bank. and the european commission is determined if you, if you do what the russians do, then you are a breach sanctions. actually, i don't think the european politicians want to see the gas stop flowing because the
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gas situation is pretty, pretty difficult. president pushing has been good on his threat though to, to, to cut off the gas. he's already done it to bulgaria and to poland, who could be next? well i think they selectively chose those countries in those countries have said they wouldn't follow the payment regime problem that already decided to it wasn't going to renew its contract and russia at the end of the year. the gary is not a major importer. i think it really determine what will determine this is what happens with the major import places such as germany, initially who are not only highly dependent on russian gas, but it's a large while the gas and their industries are life. i mean, i think that's very good. i was just going to ask you what all this is going to do to the price of gas as well. we as consumers, does it mean that wherever we are in the world are going to be paying more for natural gas as it? yes, um no, i mean, i think this is affecting the sort of the short term spot market. if you like, a lot of the natural gas, it's traded as l n,
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g into asia is on long term contracts, and it's actually indexed for the price. it's primarily in europe where we've got a reliance on short term spot markets in the market. so is the very last factor in the price of gas. interesting, the, or also the gas price of gas. so it's much lower in the united states has been going up because of demand for gas to export to europe. so yes, it will effect every consumer in europe in the united states and eventually in asia, they will also have to door on the spot market. but in the northern hemisphere course meeting into summer investment is. ready lower than what is present putin's strategy here, he's not going to shoot himself in the foot by cutting off gas supplies to, to major customers. he must have a plan here. well, to about shortage shooting himself in the middle. i think this whole question of, of the war and ukraine. i can't see that. are there any way? i don't see what you're spending to gain from destroying the position of russia. there a lot of the supplier, fossil fuel to europe. so if he has a plan, is probably already backfired time the russian economy withstand the loss of so
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much energy revenue. well, the thing at the moment, of course, is that it's when you talk about revenue, the price is so high that the volumes for the revenue still remains quite high. and in the last 6 months, natural gas in ports of huge amounts of money and in the past, they used to be very much 2nd, 2nd place to oil. again, the price is also high, but russia is trading. it's a very significant discount at the moment. but it is finding buyers, i think over the longer term, this will start to have a major impact on the russian economy. it will take time for russia. syrup final turn into sources of supply. and it will be costly and difficult for russia to find a solid markets rizal. so i would think, you know, over the long term period this would really stop the impact on the russian economy . you say that russia is finding buyers where all those buyers, china, that they're in there in asia, is that they going to be able to fill the gaps the europe is leaving. well,
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yes and no. i mean, i think, yes, there's been talk of chinese bars. not the national companies, i think they're the smallest. the smaller private refineries in years. been taking some cargoes, but not the size, the volumes that russia has been ex, exports. so you're, you're far it's, it's most important market. it's also having to send that oil further on ships and it's struggling to find ships and get insurance shipping. so all those things going to make it much more difficult to, to, to maintain exports and earnings at the level they have been in, in the recent past. it's but it's not an easy matter to readjust markets this way. are there enough energy alternatives for europe to plug the gaps then if it's not reliant upon or not relying as much upon russian gas and oil again, it's a question of time. if you look at the various plans to come out for me and paschal energy agency, i'm from the european union itself, but meaning in the short term it's, it's going to be very challenging. i talking about importing more l n g, which is already happening from united states. but i was looking at the demand side
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. what can we do to reduce the amount of gas for example that we consume? and of course, these very high prices, the oil, for example, label. so dr. demand destruction, people drive less, they much more cautious about their energy usage. so a combination of demand side, fax is perhaps on and some reorientation of supply. but there's still going to be a gap and if, if, if gas deliveries do get disrupted. net coming next winter, then we'll be we'll, we'll be seeing potentially power cups and industry having to shut down. we'll come back to that in just a moment cuz that's an important point. but in the meantime, you mentioned about people looking to alternative supplies. will this crisis hastened? do you think that the shift accelerate the transition to renewable energy supplies? well, very much. ready that's the intention you're with it, with the various plans and some tend to new k with our new strategy that this is going to accelerate the transition away. so it's not just about moving away from
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rational and gas, it's accelerating to move away from the gas, from anywhere by promoting low carbon transition. so when we talked a few moments ago about president putin, perhaps shooting himself in the foot here with having an unrealistic strategy. if we're going to be facing power cuts in europe as early as next winter, could it be argued that perhaps europe and leaders are doing the same, they're going to hurt themselves economically by moving away from russian gas and oil. yes, absolutely. you know, and i think you'll see that some european leaders in the last last they also talked about being a double edged sword. and you hear a similar rhetoric from, from fruits in the sense of europe searching itself. but that's the price that we have to pay. we're going to do take actions that really do heard russia, but yes, it is going to have an impact. there's no doubt about that. other, any winners in this situation? it's hard to find them. now let's see at the moment national companies that are
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delivering reco profits. so i assuming the other. ready states doing well, but they're not on effectively very high prices may be very negative in terms of the global economy and the, and that may again drive demand destruction unless income. so i think just coming out of the panoramic and having this level of disruption in the global economy is not good for anyone. i can't see any real when it's a professor. it's been really good to tokyo and counting across many thanks. have to be with us. thank you very much, by the way. so why does the russian president want payments in rubles for one answer, could be to sure up the currency which plunged to historic close after vladimir putin sent his troops into ukraine, unleashing unprecedented western sanctions. that battered the russian economy, but now thanks in part to higher commodities prices, banks of return to a liquidity surplus and the ruble as rallied, hitting a 2 year high against the euro. and the dollar. and the central bank has reversed
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its policy of steep increases, the borrowing costs, interest rates have been cut by for the 3 percent in an attempt to boost the economy. the main lending rate, which was raised in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, is now up 14 percent. russia has imposed capital controls to prevent russians moving their money out of the country and requires the country's exporters to convert most of their foreign currency revenues into roubles. and the rebel has gained more ground after the country said that it managed to pay back creditors with dollars. as russia tries to avoid defaulting on its debts. the russian finance ministry said that it made a $565000000000.00 euro bond payment that was due this year, as well as settling at $84000000.00 euro bond that was sent to mature in 2 years. russia has lost access to much of its foreign currency reserves due to sanctions and wants to pay lenders in roubles, but credit ratings agencies have rejected that suggestion. but russia is expected
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to suffer a deep recession. the central bank warned that the economy may face 2 straight years of contraction estimated at up to 10 percent this year. it also expects inflation to increase by around 20 percent over the coming months and the interruptions to supply chains caused by the sanctions a crippling russia's production capacities. there was a 72 percent drop in passenger car production in the country. for example, in march, we're joining us now from london. is tatiana all over lead emerging market economist at oxford economics. tatiana, good to have you with us at 1st question has to be, why is president puting in insisting right now that energy payments have to be made in rubles hello and thank you for inviting me today. i think 1st of all, this is a political statement and it's understandable in the current j political contest context. the purpose of this announcement was basically to sort of,
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it would be viewed as a sang some in response to the west, imposing biting sanctions on the russia. and it has been targeted at so called friendly countries which have imposed such sanctions. but actually, if you look at the mechanism itself, the trash has proposed, it doesn't actually demand european bias to play in the rubles, it's demand them to play into account and guess from bank beach and payments can be made in their regional current fuel. the contract, whether it was mostly juris. and the trick here is that the, the money is going to be them converted into both in russia. so strictly speaking, the decree beach put in find does not demand payment, renewables. ok. the ruble itself is on a slightly firm ground. right now. it's written against the dollar and the euro. a
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touch has russia avoided the worst of what the sanctions were designed to do it? i mean, is it going to avoid economic collapse? well, yes, we can actually say that the 1st free, so base crisis use has now finished. and actually the russian authorities have managed to avoid you know, amount down into banking sector for example, or complete meltdown in effects market. and this was done by a combination of capital controls and huge re try reach the central bank implemented in the days after the invasion. so the free trial was a $1050.00 basis points, which is very large. and the capital controls are preventing investors from
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moving funds to russia, which is reducing the pressure on the rubel. so if you look at where the rubel is trading now, is actually trading at a stronger level versus us dollar them. it was in the, in the base preceding the beginning of the base conflict. all right, so the economy is, is weathering the storm for the moment, but for how long could it continue to do so? well then there are some long term processes which now have been low interest in me . it deep restructuring of the changes still be happening to the structure with a call in the me as russia is going to people the way from europe towards asia. so treat ties are going to be cut, they already being caught with the west and buyers of russian exports, self sanctioning and creating their inputs. so russian come or did use
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boesky. russia is no longer able to import a lot of goods from the countries which have imposed sanctions against it. so the, these process this couple ready to be launched is just the matter of months and years before before we can see the full impact over these measures. and the country is from this, no doubt the country is headed for, for quite a deep recession, isn't it? yes, it is. our current forecast view is caesar, recession know for about with the contraction and they output took about 10 percent this year. and so the 3 percent next year and what impact is all of that kind of have on the cost of living for ordinary russians. the cost of leaving has already increased considerably. price is increased in march by 7.6 percent versus the level in february, february, so it was quite
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a shop shock. but after that, actually the price grows slowed down because as i have said, they ruble exchange rates that the life and return to its previous level. so there is no so the pressure on price is from the currency side. we mentioned a few moments ago that the country has managed to, to, to pay off some of the of its debt. what are the long term prospects on that? can russia afford to keep servicing its debt? is there a danger somewhere down the line of his economic pressure continues for, for maybe 12 years or longer of russia defaulting on its debt while russia has a very low level of government debt? so i think that even despite the current measures my just currently discussed by the european union regarding the freezing out russian oil and gas, i think still russia still should be able to play it's it's that if
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the oil price at some point in the future, collapses as a past happens in the past, the situation go probably change, but at the moment, the main risk of fresh and default is tammy chrome. its ability to actually perform these payments. it's effectively up to us of authorities, whether do allow us banks to process so the debt payments by the russian government . so the piece is where the main, the risk is great to talk to you on counting the costs money. thanks indeed for being with us. thank you for inviting me again. now it's known as a global hits like squid game money, heis and the crown. netflix has been top of the league of streaming services for a long time now, but pandemic restrictions that kept people glued to their screens. a receding competition is getting tougher, and netflix is losing subscribers for the 1st time. at a decade. the platform lost $200000.00 subscribers in the 1st 3 months of the year
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at expects to lose $2000000.00 more in the 2nd quarter. the announcement sent the company's stock down more than 35 percent last week, wiping at least $54000000000.00 off its market value. netflix generated revenue of almost $8000000000.00 in the 1st 3 months of the year. but that mark to slow down for previous quarter's while profits fell by more than 6 percent. and it's not only netflix that his face to slump shares in disney. roku, paramount at warner brothers discovery have also slipped, or cnn is shutting down its streaming service. cnn plus just a month after it was launched. on the flip side, h, b o at h, b o max had almost 78000000 subscribers at the end of the 1st quarter of 2022. that's around a 13000000 year on year increase. joining us from london, tim mulligan, he's a senior analyst and research director at media research team. good had he with us,
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wheres it all gone wrong for netflix? a big question. simply poll, netflix reached a certain level of growth and development where easy when this book canoeing, that rapid growth trajectory out the previous decade on the long and prince b that comes into key areas. one is competition and coal markets, mass market us, which still accounts for over a 3rd or better scriber's. but then it's where the growth is becoming over the last few years as since they made it back in 2017 folks and international subscribers. that growth is leveling off because it into markets that don't actually have the discretion, we income to be able to afford monthly subscription. so the competition are now
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moving into support propositions. this is something that netflix has mostly pushed back against happened that are offering that call us pay is free on demand experience. the final sedation make about why netflix is starting to struggle with growth retention is a combination of that whole folio of content. so they know speed news nurse be done, have schools in the line up. now this is essential to be able to offer a streaming tv alternative to digital k tv. back to be what the talk about subscription video services are streaming. it's streaming pay tv, so they lack that. some of the other, no school capacitors moving into the market of the last 3 years have that access. they may want to consider the other final pace to our school wide. netflix
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is currently in this challenging issue is will change, want media calls the attention recession? now, recession is when the combination of the long term city limits of being able to engage because of organic constraints are also matched by the return of in real life entertainment. all okay, and people are able to get out the label to socialize again. they will do all the to dish month payment formats that weren't available to a lot. remember that there are still parts the world that are coming out of that locked down period. so inevitably, that combines with this long term peach. it attention engagement to craig, attention, action, have we pass pig streaming? do you think? do you think the market is just to saturated? yes. and no qualified. yes, no. because what we're,
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what we're experiencing is this transition from judicial tv consumption to streaming tv consumption, we're moving into streaming tv. so that still means that there are some legacy behaviors around traditionally a tv sumption that will migrate to streaming. but why isn't downloadable is we've also got these constraints and the amount time that can be spent home and payment return in real life is payments. the mini attention recession means that growth is not no longer be easily found. and the other aspect of this is the subscription model of streaming services. today, the subscription prescription model is now being old minutes. it will inevitably be surpassed by app supported streaming. in the same with traditional tv has been divided between k tv and broadcast tv. go tv is traditionally be the
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majority of the market. joyce, consumers, a willing to tolerate atlas, to engage with content is to minority. you are willing to pay for an affray experience that will and now it's the translate. it's the streaming, specially as this becomes a global phenomenon, move beyond develop markets, which are now creasy saturated with subscription services. fascinating, tim has been really good talk to you, but thanks have a for being with us on counting the cost. you're welcome. thanks for your time. and that's our show for this week. don't forget if you want to get in touch with us about anything you've seen, you can treat me. i'm at 8th finnigan on twitter. please use the hash tag a j c t c. when you do or you could drop us a line, counted the cost of al jazeera dot net is our email address. as always, there's plenty more for you online at al serra dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page there. you'll find individual reports, links,
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even entire episodes for you to catch up. but that is it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian finnegan from the whole team here. and so how, thanks for being with us. the news is next on al jazeera, actual capital, capital, which nature created. oh, when nature is transformed into a commodity big business takes a new interest by landscape protecting landscapes. it's a phenomenal opportunity to be able to use a business model to achieve sustainability of nature. but at what risk banks, of course, don't do that because they have at the heart protection of nature. they do that because to see your business in pricing the planets on al jazeera, mainstream coverage of big stories, can sometimes deliver more heat than lights. in a water scenario, there's always a place to simplify. narratives. nuance is always called for, even in the case of an aggressive war, the listening pace delve into the news,
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narrative, and dissect them. there is not our great deal of subtlety. we're talking about the barbarism it is unfolding as though we're somehow unique. it's not unique covering the way the news is covered on al jazeera. ah, i'm rob matheson and do all the top stories on al jazeera, the shoreline, capital, colombo is tense, but calm after a night of violence. but so 7 people killed, including a member of parliament, rival demonstrations escalated into street battle sparks by the worst economic crisis in decades. but no fernandez has more form colombo after mormon from water. we've seen on the streets in colombo. ah, things seem to have settled to some extent. obviously there is a curfew extended to wednesday morning.

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