those drivers steal manning the wheel bracing for what comes next. john henderson, al jazeera rogers, arkansas. one of the most recognizable portraits of the hollywood actress marilyn monroe, sold for $195000000.00. this such an auction in the us, it makes annual holes 1964 super screen painting the most expensive artwork by an american artist. it felt assured of a $200000000.00 estimate. the proceeds will be donated to charity. ah, this is odds are these are the top stories and streets around shoreline cars, capital of colombo. com, following a night of unrest at least 7 people were killed, including a politician, the prime minister resigned after rival demonstrations escalated into st. baffles. we know fernandez is following the situation in columbia. as things intensified late into the night yesterday. the authority is decided to extend that island wide

curfew into the early hours of wednesday morning. but as you can see around me may be over my shoulder. i mean, the one thing that's as large as life is a smouldering bus, and there are many of those dotting colombo ah, basically, remnants of what protested had set on the buses that brought all of these my and the roger boxes, supporters for that meeting, that the prime minister had an official results from the philippines presidential election suggests fredman marcus junior is set to become the next leader 36 years after his father was overthrown. in a revolution from manila, jamila allen dugan has more on how the count is progressing. traditionally though, this usually takes a few days after which, ah, ah, the commissioner elections will before the commission elections announced a who actually emerge as the next president or vice president of the philippines.

but you know, if we look at the leads of our bongo marcus, junior, i'm and, and the lead is millions, with vice president. lenny roberto, the leader of the opposition trailing behind many experts believe that it's unlikely that there's going to be a big change. at least one person has been killed and 5 injured by russian shelling in ukraine, southern port city for desa. the cranium military says, shopping center and warehouse were hit. in the past week, russia has talked to several towns in the southern region. conservative units of young has been sworn in the south rose new presidents wildly does. and former presidents were among thousands attending the inauguration in so in his speech shewn court for the complete deed, new clarissa zation of north korea. and he said the door remains open for dialogue with young you're today with headlines, more news coming up here on out 0 right after we visit inside story partner on may, 15th lebanon will hold its 1st parliamentary elections since the country with info,

economic collapse in 2019 political and security pensions are running high with many loving these desperately wanting change and new leadership, but will their vote to be enough to change the status quo special coverage on ellsworth either it's been the face of irish nationalism now for the 1st time shin fane has won the largest number of seats in northern islands parliament. but what's behind this political shift and what does it mean for the future of the united kingdom? this is inside story. ah . hello there and welcome to the program. i'm nostalgia tay. now the political landscape in northern ireland has changed for the 1st time, shin vein, which wants to unite. all of ireland has won the most to seats in regional

elections. they're not put an end to a century of dominance by unionists which support the british crown. and constitution. now both sides need to agree to form a new government. the democratic unionist party. traditionally, the party with the majority wants to 1st address order trade agreements made after break says, the d u p says the current deal technically leaves it out of the united kingdom. the u. k is northern and secretary is urging a power sharing government as soon as possible and should feigns vice president says they're committed to make politics work today or she was in a new era which i believe presents us all with an opportunity to reimagine relationships in this society on the basis of furnace on the basis of equality and on the basis of social justice are respective or religious, political, or social backgrounds. my commitment is to make politics work. while champagne is the only political party active and both the republic of ireland and northern

ireland, founded back in 19 o 5, it's made up of irish republicans and democratic socialists who believe in a united ireland without british rule or influence. it was once regarded as the political wing of the provisional irish republican army or the i r a. in 1900. 19 its original members founded a legislative body known as the 1st stale and declared irish independence. the u. k . outlaw the dale. shortly after that and since the 2003 elections, champagne has been the largest nationalist party in northern ireland and has remained committed to irish reunification. ah, oh, let's not bring in our guests in belfast. we have duncan morrow. he is the professor of politics at ulster university in brussels. nicholas wyatt's and international affairs strategist and senior director in brussels for ap co. that's a public affairs and strategic consultancy. and in cambridge, gram dudgeon, a research associate at the university of cambridge, and also

a former special adviser to 1st minister david trimble and the northern ireland assembly a warm welcome to each of you. thank you so much for joining us gentlemen. now i want to start with why this is such a significant development. these are regional elections. polls like this don't necessarily always make the headlines of international news, but parties the port and northern northern island really has potentially exec, existential consequences here. so looking at the design of northern islands, very institutions, it was predicated on this idea that the outcome of this very project protracted piece process. i'm curious, duncan, do think the good friday agreement could have predicted this well, in some sense, the good friday agreement is not actual duration in which people go for like an accident and nothing can happen. another level. i think the presumption was that by this stage, the border issue would be would be much quieter. and there wouldn't be the same

level of tension as we see an implementation of that question again in the last 4 or 5 years. the brag rep random. i think that this result is a complex one because at one level it doesn't change anything. they the balance a par at between the different groups the lower than i haven't changed dramatically, except that there's a much bigger group in the middle who belongs to. neither of them was there before . but what has happened is that in our situation where 2 groups have to be together in the top office, the 1st deputy 1st master at the the nomination test swap that used to be the union just used to take the 1st minister post. and now it's and band and wires or that is interesting, both is. and the fact that chin fan can at least claim here is the party which exists to get rid of northern ireland. as now is the largest party in northern ireland and the unionists. they find themselves as the deputy, but in real terms it doesn't actually make much difference as it looks symbolically

. and we'll get to some of the practical implications in just a minute. but nicholas, i want to ask you because there is an enormous amount of symbolism here, the fact that the party that was once the political wing of the array is now in line to actually appoint the 1st minister. the fact that the 1st minister could be a catholic, did that play a part in driving votes? oh, clearly it made a very important difference to ship things campaign. the idea that though there was a chance that by voting pushing pain, you could have a 1st minister from the national side, i think was a very strongly motivation factor. and in fact, i think the u. p. made a mistake here because i tried to campaign against us under i think the term national focus perhaps felt more strongly about it than the do you please own target voters because the to you please vote went down and change things went up. but we also had to be bear in mind that there's comparative aspects here. the scotland for years has been run by the scottish national party who's, whose job is to, to break up united kingdom creation independence daughter states. they still

haven't succeeded in doing it for the house of season governing. so from graham, i will bring you in here because as nicholas alluded to, their vote for the d. u. p. used to be a vote to camp, keeps and fan out of government. now we've seen this huge shift in the political landscape, a huge growth. as we were saying earlier in the center, i see the alliance party 117 seats. so that's up from 8 in 2017 and 13.5 percent of 1st preference votes. are we in a sense, seeing a normalization of irish politics to a slight extent, i think, but we shouldn't accept your agency line 30 cent. we don't know that this is really a long term trend. it aligns tends to be a part of that gets protest, boats from people who are temporarily disaffected from the main parties. so it may be a physical thing, but or it may be a long, long, long term structural change or other suspect that the case i think there are quite

a lot of young professionals, both catholic and protestant, didn't know not to do. it just gets fed up what they say is the main parties bargaining on either about staying in the union or irish unity they took, rather if they would concentrate on the person. but her issues, actually people are young families and they're interested education. they're interested in health and health issues. so just so happening that we shouldn't forget know that and politics is basically a 0 sum game, not on the other stays in the united kingdom or, or joins republic of ireland. it's one of the other come to both company in the. ready days and the irish republic that we can so or something about so. so the alliance is position. it's not really a very strong fundamental, but it's a satisfactory, quite nice place phone. number line voters who don't want to see themselves is

extreme. it's to be. so let me throw that back to then nicholas jerry think, given the change that we're seeing in the electorate here move towards the middle is best to move away then from sectarianism is, of course, the results of that is that the sectarian parties that represents unit a so nationalist than themselves become somewhat more our line. but anecdotally, the, the growth and the center ground has been lation for a long time. many people indoors not and are in mixed relationships their, their spouse or their partner is from the other tradition to them. and the traditional parties don't have anything to offer families in that situation. and in particular, they don't have anything to offer the children of parents who are from different traditions. and that's been a very much a growing part of the community. it's certainly not majority, but it's a growing part up until recently those people would probably know some folks to school and now they are voting on their voting for the lines. partially to

a much lesser extent for over centrist portions and data that i think is the situation that the framework where you started your very 1st question, the stats it was about whether the structures of the good friday agreement or robust enough to accept this sort of this, this change a paradigm. i think that's a very good question on. i don't think we have the answer. oh, duncan, you alluded there to the fact that sin fanned and actually and make huge gains stay there. so the right way is any littleton game, any states, but what really led to the outcome that we're thing with that will declines the d u p. in your mind, what's actually led to that? well, i think there's a couple of things going on here. i mean, certainly my impression from about us is about among under for keith, the issue, the issues have changed when i was growing up, there was a much clearer lying between if you like and pain, who are associated with the ira,

the constitutional parties. i think for people under 40, i really noticed not just that they come from relationships that go across the divide. but the key issues have turned into social issues such as gay marriage, such as green shoes and so on. and many ways they, you know, are with them. they've had to use a special mechanism in our parliament to veto things on those kinds of issues. and i think that i've been under estimate of the driver for younger voters into what might be called the alive positions. and just one other thing to say there is that i think that grew the paypal, her voting center. now, we're actually comfortable with some of the outcomes of, of the good friday agreement. in other words, open borders in all directions. and they were really driven the real velocity. and the sampras boat has happened absolutely, in my view, connected to the consequences of the choices around hard borders. and i'm very

strong preference in that group to try and keep borders open as far as possible. well let's then talk about breakfast i see in the assembly elections and may 2016 not was just a month before the breaks that referendum. the duke he took 29 percent of the vote and this time and got 21 percent. and of course, when the u. k, left the e u, it took northern ireland. whether i want to take a look at the practical invitations of that now that led to the creation of the northern ireland protocol, which allows trucks to deliver goods without porter checks. when they cross from northern ireland into the republic of island, which remains in you, it was agreed that inspections would take place between northern ireland and mainland britain. but could saying that effectively creates a new trade border in the iris fee. and unionist insist that undermines northern islands place within the u. k. the protocol also protects the 1998 good friday agreement, which includes the sensitive issue of removing all visible signs of a border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland. now,

gran in your mind, how much the rex it's and the northern island protocol actually affect the outcome of this election? well, it has affected it saying that the protocol is an issue and its ticket issue with a, with the unit is parties. very much opposed having an internal customs both within the united kingdom. it's hard to think of many other countries that have got an internal customs border salt. this is a very unusual position. and of course they say that's a step in the direction of a united ireland, so we concern position and it undermines the good friday agreement. contract agreement was based on the idea that both sides have a check. they can stop radical changes proposed by the other side. what's happening here is the he was coming with a protocol and driven the what david trimble calls and coaching policies through the good friday agreement. by not allowing that,

that check mechanism in full years time. that form of check isn't there. so the protocol is affecting it, but it's important i think has, don't come with suggesting it, don't come are as testing at the beginning that the election results here are very much of a change in trying to become the largest part in not because it's got any extra votes, but because the pay has shed votes to even more per year, the party that they to union as far as the t v. i got that as well. if you have those folks together from trucks to, to ship things from. so that's a bit of a bit of fragmentation of the vote, some the of the union side. and even that doesn't matter too much in a p type collection that we, we have in northern ireland. so not so much has changed over excitement about this in the international international media. but i think because as duncan with suggestion, the changes in the selection of the marginal still though,

we're now looking at a potential protracted stalemate. as i understand that the northern ireland secretary is installment meeting the pass. he is and there's huge disagreement about the protocol as he members of the u. p. holding strong saying things like either the secretary of state, once an executive or a protocol, he can have both nick county refusing to nominate ministers to the executive. and i see there's already been a threat from the british home secretary about trying to fix the protocol. nicholas after 6 years of trying, they haven't managed to fix the protocol. so what are the chances of actually finding something acceptable now as you thing? now we have 2 different fact. we have 2 different political dynamics here which are interacting very on. hopefully, the 1st is frankly, the need of the british documents to find a reason to fight with the you. and the protocol is as far as i can tell, sitting in the, in brussels being used purely artificially for that purpose. the landing zone, diplomatically for the protocol,

was very clear. it's been quite clearly laid out and in discussions between both sides, 6 months ago, longer perhaps. and so the fact that no agreement is yet be reached is quite simply a political choice by british diplomats british officials during the negotiations. so that's one side of it. the other side of it is the effect on north mars valasics . and here i, i really do have to disagree with with graham, i'm afraid. i think the, the election results of every significance. i think the fall in support for the d. u. p is precisely because they did not do a good job of politics around the protocol. they had the possibility to bring in a better agreement that which to resume negotiated. instead, they chose the torpedoes. and to trust boris johnson, who then came up with the protocol that they now say they don't like. and it's true, of course that the do p vote was which went to the, the, to you read the more hard line to you v. that it's an antique protocol, wrote the t v. we're only able to that one member after lunch in the assembly

despite guessing quite alone. quite a lot of folks. nobody likes this position, nobody is going to transfer votes to it. so i think it's, it's proved rather of a loser for the g u p. it's been a series of mistakes and this is the latest of them. and i think it's a real mistake to hold hostage the formation of the government of northern ireland over the issue of the protocol, which is an issue that the government of northern ireland actually has no formal influence over done, can now bring you any. i see you nodding and curious as well. if you think this is going to potentially fairly conflict not only in northern ireland but also and between westminster in brussels. well, never really well. and i think that that conflict over the protocol has been an over breakfast, have been late since the black rep random. the bottom line is that at united kingdom volatility but northern ireland to remain and then that growth in the sampras vote have been very much of a group of people who want to retain

a relationship with the with the i noticed last in the paper this week at the, for the 1st time ever and 2020, they were more applications for irish passports in northern and they were for british passport. i think a lot of us to do with retaining. right. so it's just me movement within the youth . and i do think that one of the lines and politics of the mars is between the, this new group of unionism around the issue of protocol i, we, how it's going to be resolved is very, very difficult. because as he said, there are 2 issues interacting here. the diplomatic level where it's negotiated, but also the way in which it suggests that there's a now mac and northern islands, which is now playing a play in the fact that we may not have a government for months. and then grandma, let you respond to both of those. thanks very much. i because it's probably, i think the standard brussels position in the way we can concept why. why is making

those points? but it's ridiculous to say that government is looking for a reason to oppose or upset brussels. the u. k. government would like nothing more than to have this problem of their hands. but unfortunately, i can't ignore it. because now the unionists are in a position to say, look, either you have good friday agreement situations, suddenly enough surface situations. all you have the protocol, but you're not getting both. so the government has to do something about that. what it looks like they're choosing to do is they're already working on legislation to hand power over the protocol to you can minister. so you can minister will then be able to override it. this will lead to around you because he was showing no flexibility what he did here was closed the period if i may continue, you exploited

a period of great political weakness and deficient within the u. k. to come up with a solution which was with which nationalists in the line and were completely happy and unions were completely unhappy and in the situation. and you just can't get away with some sustainable. and therefore, the protocol has to change whether brussels likes it or not, the judge duncan go ahead the difficulties of the program. so nationally, i don't agree with them, is that actually this election confirm that the majority in northern ireland quite quite substantially are in favor of retaining the protocol. and if there was a vote in the family, it will be, it would be a majority vote. i do think there is a problem, but it's not shared across the community and what could be done there. the difficulty being that the form of practice that bars johnston at chose also had no cross community support. and that the options which might have had across committees for it were removed during the negotiations,

who are kind of unraveling the wheel here. i suspect that the resonance invention, which causes an a thing like a trade war between europe and union or anything to disrupt the open border and the size of items that will actually cause more problems rather than last. so i'll be interested to see how it goes on, but i think to suggest that this wouldn't have wider diplomatic consequences for the u. k. with america and europe is, would be a mistake. and i don't ask why. i think that while they say that they constantly, the government says it will bring legislation but doesn't actually do so well. a number of countries already come out asking for a power sharing government to be put together as soon as possible. and i want to take a bit of a step back here because we are in a stalemate. and i want to clarify something for you is that maybe a little misleading. we have this 1st minister position and a deputy 1st minister position, but they are essentially equal position. so there is no government unless the d u p . and she fan actually agree. now that all looks fairly tenuous at the moment,

i see they have something like 6 months to agree on something. i mean, what happens if that doesn't actually work out? nicholas of the legal position is clear that there will be another election. the political position, of course, is much less clear if it's not possible to put together a government in northern ireland because one of the parties has got a completely detached reason for not wanting to go him. other than that raises questions about whether the devolved institutions, the regional government structures established by the good friday agreement can be sustained. i think it's very dangerous for the d. p to do that from their own perspective. because the alternative to having a devolved government is going to be continued through directly from london with strong inputs from dublin. and as is precisely the situation that was set up in 1985 under the under arch agreement, which the g p fund intolerable. now they appears to be working to bring us about

again, it's very strange. well, there's also been plenty of talk about potential reunification and obviously santana has been very vocal on that. grant. can i ask you then how likely do you think a, a united ireland is because despise all the speculation we've had? i did get the sense that and we're quite a long way from enough support for me like that. that's quite right. we are an awful lot of way opposed to a lot so i have much support for united decide and and policies i've shown difference. it said 25 percent and 45 percent. but i think if we say probably 30 percent support where we're not far wrong. therefore, if the water board uphold the, the pro union pro you stay in the u. k. faction would win by, by market to, to wall. and for that reason, of course, shouldn't change coal, then press for both poli, mediately, but talking for talking about a bullet perhaps within about 5 years. but this is only 5 years in 5 years. it'll

be still be calling for it within 5 years because they just can't get the majority for it. i don't want to end the discussion without asking a question, which i know some of our viewers may be wondering, given the history of island. and what's happened on the island. duncan, i have to ask, is there any kind of a risk of a return to medicine said you think part of the issue is it can never be totally ruled out and there's always, there are out on the side. i have to say one thing i would say is that there is no support for us. there is absolutely clear that not the parties have gone down the road of suggesting that there should be any support for us or staff, you know, popular support for it. but we also know as that's not always where it comes from, it sometimes comes from the develop a way to start something with people respond to and then escalates up. so i would say that it's not something that i think we should overly fear. and on the other

side, the difficulty is a simply because there are people who are always, always agitating for that kind of thing. well, we'll keep an eye on how this all plays out, especially of the next 6 months or so. in the meantime, no thanks to all of our guests. duncan, martin, nicholas white and graham garden, and thank you to for watching. remember, you can see this program again any time by visiting our website that's al jazeera dot com. and to further discussion do go to my facebook page, and that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a inside story for me and the whole team here. and uh huh. bye. actual capital. this capital, which nature created. oh, when nature is transformed into

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