secretary says the probe will take well, as long as it takes my hands a very tight here, i am required by statute to investigate a claim that companies operating in other countries are trying to circumvent the duties. and i'm required by statute to have a fulsome investigation. a preliminary ruling is due in august, a final decision could take a year. another trip around the sun. it might bring precious little progress for the american solar industry. john henderson, al jazeera santa monica, california. ah, floating, i'm fully back the ball. with the headlines on al jazeera, ukraine's military command says the mission to defend the found steel plant is over . more than 260 ukranian fighters have been brought out from the last stronghold of resistance in the city of merrier pole. in lebanon results from sunday's election show has belie and its allies have loss,

damage or retain parliament. official results also show the saudi arline. lebanese forces party. a christian group has made huge gains. several anti establishment candidates also pick holder has moved from balte. runyan back has the law along with their allies. they have been shipped from their majority in parliament, but only 3 seats. they 162 seats, but they needed 65 to hang onto their majority in the outgoing parliament, they had some 70 feet, but no other political grouping. no alliance, no party was able to win the parliamentary majority. this is going to be a very fragmented parliament. a heat wave is sweeping northern india with temperatures nearing a record, 50 degrees celsius in new delhi. doctor's warn, the intense heat could cause health problems for the vulnerable, including the elderly, chronic disease, patients and infants. another sand storm has hit iraq,

sending hundreds of people to hospital with breathing problems. flights have been suspended in baghdad and not job, and some schools and offices have been forced to close its the 8th stand storms this since april. north korea is crumbling to deal with what i believe to be a major corporate 19 outbreak. 6 new desk where reported on tuesday with a further 270000 people, showing fever like symptoms of cri as leader kim jong own is naming his health officials for being, quote, irresponsible, and families of the victims of the latest. my shooting in the us are renewing calls for restrictions on gun ownership. 10 people were killed in buffalo on saturday in a racially motivated attack. have been nearly 200 mast shooting this year in the us . that's 10 a week. and those are the headlines on al jazeera. we'll have more news for you after inside story, stay with us. ah

. will finland and sweden joining nato make europe safer? despite warnings from russia, both countries made the decision after the invasion of ukraine. how will the kremlin respond? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much am jerome, finland, and sweden decided against joining nato for many years. both have a long history of remaining neutral during wars and staying out of military alliances. all that changed when russia invaded ukraine. leaders of the nordic

nations blame president vladimir putin for endangering security in europe for finland. the decision could mean abandoning its policy of avoiding confrontation with its enormous neighbor. russia's deputy foreign minister warned a far reaching consequences. the kremlin says it could send more troops to the 1300 kilometer border with finland. but becoming a member of the western military alliance isn't guaranteed. as step vast reports from the german capital, berlin, finland, and sweet, and will be warmly welcomed into the nato military alliance. that was the message from all nato foreign ministers at a meeting in berlin. except for one. turkey has made objection saying the nordic nations are hosting, but it calls terrorist organizations pointing among others at the p. k. k. the quidditch workers party to be frank on a bit confused. because i had a telephone discussion with the president aradonda that is approximately months ago . and tim, actually,

he took up himself before i had the possibility to do that, that you're applying for nato membership and we will assess it favorable. i thanked him and he was very pleased to receiving my thanks. for turkey, there was nothing confusing about its demands even though they need to stop supporting terrorist organizations. but offense, industry restriction over prohibitions on export permits impose to an allies such as turkey should definitely be lifted. i'm not say this is a bargaining chip. i'm say, it is a requirement of a lawyers. russia president vladimir putin has called the possible northern expansion of nato, a threat, finland joining with double the border between nato and russia. but nato's minister sat put in, has himself to blame. after invading ukraine. they're confident the issue with

turkey will be resolved soon. i heard almost across the board, very strong support for finland, nato joining the alliance if that's what they choose to do. ah, and i'm very confident that we will reach consensus on that. all 30 nato states have to approve the admission of new members a process that normally takes month. but ministers and berlin said they want to speed this up to prevent the so called grace period in which finland and sweden would not be protected by nato's article 5 weeks. as an attack on one is an attack on all. it was expected as soon as finland and sweden applied for nato membership. the process would be smooth and swift but turkey's position may now have flo days down. no one can say for sure when the toma flax will be added to this collection step, fasten al jazeera in berlin, sweden and finland have beneficial nato partners since 1994 and have taken part in several nato mission since the end of the cold war. let's take

a look at what they need to become full members. made o candidates must be democracies, have an open market economy and be able to contribute militarily to the alliance, finland, and sweden check all those boxes, have strong militaries, and sweden is a major supplier of weapons. once the application goes through the parliaments of all 30 nato countries, need to approve new members. finland says it already meets nato as target of spending 2 percent of his g. d. p on defense, sweden expects to reach that by 2028. ah. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests in finland's capital, helsinki, o and mcnamara. visiting research fellow at the finish institute of international affairs in brussels in belgium, theresa fallon, director of center for russia, europe, asia, studies, and in russia's capital. moscow, papa falcon, how are a defense and military analyst a warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story, teresa, let me start with you today. i guess the big question right now is will finland and

sweden joining nato make europe safer? well, this has been a long time coming. i think with the invasion brushes, you invasion of ukraine. it has been a hinge moment. let's remember sweden has been neutral for 200 years, and this is a huge change for the land as well. so yes, i think that this will fill a vacuum that's in that area and the baltic feel a whole lot safer. there was the leonard mary conference in his tony this weekend and everyone was pretty much dancing for joy about this event. yes, there's a small fine you women now with turkey, but i think that overall, both sweden and, and then bring a lot to the table. in addition, looking forward, also arctic security will be tied up with the baltics as well. so i think that this is win for everybody, and it shows how upset and angry the public was with the brutality of what's going on in ukraine. i mean, daily news about russian soldiers,

brutalizing civilians. i think something just, you know, turn to switch in these countries that were traditionally neutral, that they needed to join nato. that it wasn't good enough just to be a partner that they needed article 5 to feel safe. owen theresa, there was just talking about how historic is this all is that countries that have traditionally been neutral would now want to join nato. i want to ask you from, from your perspective, if sweden and finland do, join nato, how significant a redrawing of europe security map would it constitute well it's, it's certainly, it's certainly historic. but whether it's, whether it's all out, whether it's such a big thing, well, it isn't, it isn't. i mean, filane and sweden, i mean the boat john the, the european union in 9095. they have been politically aligned since then with the european union with the west. they've just been militarily non aligned, but they've been cooperating very, very closely with nato for many,

many years. they're as good as nato members, essentially in terms of their interoperability. the military operability under their political situ situation awareness with the alliance. there is good as nato members, without the article, by guarantee. so this essentially just adds an extra layer on. 8 which would give them nato's collective defense on access to nato's nuclear deterrence, so that they are never again, alone to pace down our russian aggression like we've seen in ukraine. so it would certainly redraw the. 8 map our european security, but particularly insecurity in northern europe. it would make things, crystal clear weights, nato's contingency planning in the region. and this is good news, not just or society isn't bill and sweden, but it's also good news for all the other nato nations around the baltic. sea broader nordic states, iceland, norway, in denmark, but also for the both the states and poland as well. probably russia has said that

finland and sweden joining nato is a serious mistake, that it would have far reaching consequences and that both countries should not assume that moscow would not respond. what kind of a response or what kind of a retaliation would be expected? oh, moscow of course does not do like this at all, and it has been very vocal. he said that this is a wrong move. this will decrease security in europe and decrease security for the 2 nordic nations. the russian foreign minister was talking about possible count military technical counter measures, but the crime one or more softer approach, which actually is a typical for the russian policies in any kind of a century or the year russians are, is always the, the peacemaker us. so the prem on said, well, it's all depend what really happens there today on monday,

the 16th of may president bush and actually said that we don't have any problems with sweden or frame and, and then just joining late there is also not much of a problem to at teresa from, from your vantage point there, how do you think the kremlin might respond? well, it's very difficult to predict what isn't president putin's mind? i think that he is not on his pay right now with ukraine. and so in, for example, i had already experienced cyber attacks when they 1st announced that they were contemplating joining nato. so i think that there has been a lot of saber rattling towards both finland and sweden. and i think they've made their own calculations and they've decided to join the club when it comes specifically to finland. do you think that this decision means that the country is going to abandon its policy of avoiding confrontation with russia? well, no, i don't. i. i think that dimension can still be preserved within nato. but one

thing i would like to say, i mean, the view from helsinki is certainly right now that russia has overstretched itself . and that is the view of most military analysts in ukraine. so it is very unlikely to pose much of the tribe despite it saber rattling right now to bill and sweden. it's from its northern military district. but of course, nordic society is if you understand the societies, it's all about the long term. you know how stretching out prosperity for as long as possible, the next generation and social development sustainability of the nordic model. and of course, all that needs to be secured. so we don't know in 5 or 10 years, how russia might look like white or russia will be more aggressive, even more aggressive than it is now. or whether it will have gotten the right bloody nose in ukraine. and will have decided to amend its fences with the west and

try reintegration with the west. once again, we just don't know. and the northern states been and sweden, they don't know either. so natal membership really is to lock down, their prosperity locked down their social progress for the long term. it's not really about the short term, even though as theresa. i think a said that a switch has split, but it, but it is with a long term with a long term outlook. if that is not too paradoxical, probably no. go ahead are to that. but, but if i can, just finally, if i can just just briefly, i just re fi this to your question that yeah, and obviously in the long term picture fin and sweden populations are very, very angry right now. but if russia wants to, we'll back from it's aggression, i'm sure both states will keep the door open. we'll keep the channel for dialogue

open to talk russia out of some of it's brutal aggression that we're seeing in ukraine right now. probably despite what russia might be saying publicly, just how concerned is moscow about the possibility of finland and sweden joining nato, lose the plastic or things that russia cannot deal at the same time with ukraine and the, the expansion of finland and sweden during the night. there are simply not enough my capability for all those talk about military technical measures being taken. well, not much can be taken. all the conventional capabilities are more or less used right now, new brandishing the nuclear deterrence. well, yes, it's there, but it was always been there, so not much russia couldn't do. and that's why president bush into it was on monday 16th may was very, very, kind of a soft. he said,

i would say he said that we don't have a problem with these countries if they join a to that doesn't change anything, much of a formality of joining. but later on if there's american because of course, rush is really a 0 on right now. the grandma on american, the stand off with the united states and nato, as in says, is an american weapon in that russia. so american missiles or any kind of other infrastructure bearing and finland and sladen, that means russia will react again if it has the capability. and deals with ukraine or doesn't deal with the upgrade. so that's kind of postpone to the future right now for russia will not really do anything drastic. there was some here expressed especially in finland, russia good years. this great period when for england has applied for a membership, but this doesn't yet have for the formality of the article. 5 guarantees that

russia could make some kind of move. what that's not happening. we simply the russian simply does not have the capability to do that. right now, even if it did one to with their parents, it doesn't want to do right now. so it's gone right now. it's not going further than a rhetoric. teresa, a turkey has expressed reservations about the finland and sweden joining nato. they have objections and they've laid out some demands. i want to ask you from your perspective, is this something that's going to present a major hiccup when it comes to the accession of sweden and finland to nato? is this something that could delay things or will, will everybody was involved be able to get past this and based here in brussels. and i think a lot of people are rather surprised by this because security is such a important issue that all of these conversations happened. for example, the prime minister of finland noted that they spoke to turkey back in april and or

the gun so that they would support finish joining finance, joining of nato. so i think everyone's been taken aback like this. and it's not something you can mess around with. i mean, if you give kind of, if you kind of assert that you're going to join nato and then a country locks your membership because they know you need unity. all 30 members must agree. so that turkey is kind of maybe forcing them to twist in the wind. i know many leaders said that this is something that will be required conversation that this is nothing to be concerned about. but i think it sends that worrying message to my mind from turkey, that there might be using this as an opportunity to, you know, use a leverage and get what they want. but i think that, you know, as the alliance and not really the smartest move at this point, and there has been a lot of good will in many respects with bio tire, the incredible turkish jones that they have been supplying to ukraine. so i think

that's only gonna maybe overplayed his hand at this point, but let's see, maybe everything can be smoothed over. maybe there was a misunderstanding, but i think that, you know, security issues, defense issues are really very, very serious. and that this kind of horse trading should be done in public own. it's being reported the turkeys objections focus on what it considers to be both finland and sweden's leniency towards the kurdistan workers. part of the p k. k. a group that they consider to be what they call a terrorist organization. is there a lot of concern in finland right now that, that this could delay things, this could be a major hiccup? well, it is true and that there is some sympathy towards the p k. k are from some sections of the finish and swedish political to sit systems. but not all

. we've seen out a trick like this pulled before by president out of the home. he did it just before nato's 70 it anniversary, meeting in london right at the end in december. 2019. there was a lot of where he tried to do the same thing unless unless the rest of nato recognizes the p. k. k is terrorist, then he would block extra defense provisions for nato's enhance forward presence for both the states and poland. he's kind of making a domestic point on that. he's not happy about the law of the land. regarding other perceptions of the p k. k. with a nato that, that he's a strong man as the always projects himself. but there's often a lot of diplomacy taking place behind the scenes. he was taught down at the end of 2019, and the mood in stock on the mood in helsinki is that they have an off and there is an awkward in the the alliance to talk him down this time as well. aragon on turkey

are, are quite isolated and right now, you know there strategically very important oper, western strategic interest in ukraine. us $23.00 says mentioned, but of course it is not in aragon interest to be isolated within nato either. and if i could also follow up with you, if things are able to get back on track now if things are able to be smoothed over when it comes to turkey's objections, how long might the accession to nato take when it comes to finland and sweden? so what we're looking at now, and in the next week or 2, we're looking at phil and sweden filing their applications for nato membership. it is likely then that spin london, sweden will be issued an invitation to join nato. what name hose madrid, somebody in june and from there, depending on different parliamentary procedures and different parliamentary protocols. because of course, nato is in the lines of consensus. all 30 nasal member states will have to agree.

there is no fixed time limit on this, but the most ambitious or fast track our perception on this is that it could take as little as 4 months from june and wider estimates are stretched out to 18 months, so for to 18 months. seems to be the range or the membership ratification process. probably one of the reasons that president putin was so adamantly opposed to ukraine. joining nato was that he didn't want nato on russia's border, but finland has a 1300 kilometer border land border with russia. sweden has a maritime border with russia. did president putin think that things would go this far, that he could be confronted with the possibility of nato getting to russia's border? in this particular way?

i won't send one that actually joining nato in moscow. yes, it was a bit of a surprise because of the relationship with house and he was always considered as a privileged one since the soviet times since after and world war 2. when fin during the cold war was basically a russian so yet protectorate. and it was believed in moscow that that was very good for masculine good for the friends. well, the friends, a feminist people have a very, are somewhat different kind of, or a correction of those times. they don't like them. and the finish military is as the swedish military for, oh, all the time they were always thinking about defending against russian soviet troops. they were not that they were neutral, but not preparing to fight anyone else that so there's different perceptions in moscow. and in those 2 countries of what's really about what they should

do, and while cloudy, can react social important to notice that russia for russia, ukraine, and for boats in ukraine is very special. he has many times said that the gradients and russians are the same. people basically one folk and that they should be together and pulling ukraine away from russia is splitting the of the historical russian nation. of course england was also once part of the russian empire, but now it ruin moscow considers fins to be russian. so there that's, that there's a different that they're seen as far and also nato and in the, in the beginning of the 2000 taken in the baltic states and ruwan soviet republics . and they have a border with russian. actually they're closer to moscow than finland. and so that does not really change that much in the strategic out. so the russian military,

the russian general staff lu, sure will be say that this is a big threat that they need more money from the budget. they should build new bases, they new need, new weapons. this they'll be playing up this threat. teresa. oh and touch on this in an earlier answer, the fact that both finland and sweden essentially broke their of strict neutrality is when they joined the you, when they became partners to nato in, in the 1000 ninety's. i'm curious from your perspective, would they have, have to have joint nato at some point any way or, or was joining nato really a nonstarter until russia invaded ukraine? i think that they are very careful balancing act and carefully cultivated neutrality. finland has a different form of neutrality compared to sweden, but it's really, historically, as i know it, 200 years of 2 centuries, hooton's actions and ukraine. how upset their calculus. they realize they cannot be safe at this partnership level with nato. and that the only thing that will keep

their civilian safe because it's overwhelming, it's about 77 percent of the population wants them to join a don't. this is unheard of. and they want to do it together because in sweden, i kind of partners and all of this, and most analysts assume that sweden would be 1st and then that would follow. but in this case, finley is really leading. sweden is joining them and it looks like it will be a joint application. but i think that this shows that this is a hinge point in history. countries and for 2 centuries were willing to remain neutral in order to have good neighborly relations with russia. have recalculated that because of this horrific war in ukraine, and they see the brutality of russian soldiers, so they once more safety. and this is why they're joining nato. and i think that's the whole region we, you asked earlier about the landscape strategic landscape has changed dramatically . should this go through, you know, some people described it as

a baltic. so you have increased security in an area that, that was a bit of a vacuum for security. so this will change dramatically. and i think this is going to be very hard for putting to explain to the public that are pushing back. you know, it's actually got to new members. all right, well we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much. all of our i guess on mcnamara, theresa fallon and pablo fog an hour and thank you for watching it to see the program again. any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion got our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at ha, inside store for me mom a jim jim, the whole team here 5 for now. ah ah,

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