directed by women, still a record for cal rodeo is a french film about a girl breaking into a male dominated world, sat in the suburbs of bo, if full as a group of working class kids pursuing that passion for illegal dut bite reagan kid in the 1st time directed liquid role spent 4 years investigating the motorcross scene. she says she wanted to create a character. we rarely see on screen. she is as to impolite to to say that that dog, hello, i'm jalee. how are you? no, no, no. she is leg by breaking the wool in, getting through the group her i leg valence her female character. female direct is like quiver all the under miss offering fresh voices in cinema that films were snapped up even before being screened and can proving the audience appetite is already there. charlie angela al jazeera can ah,

hello, adrian setting up here in doha. the headlines on al jazeera, a funeral, has been held for 17 year old palestinian boy who was shot and killed by his really forces in the occupied westbank. it happened to jeanine were al jazeera journalist, shaheen. our, our claim was killed last week. here as president, joe bivens says that he's willing to beat north korea's kim, john odom for security talks if he serious biden's. and so for meetings with south korean president yoke, so your projections after australia's general action show the central left label party has defeated the government coalition. however, it likely be a minority government. heavy rain flooding, a bland slides, or bringing more havoc to ne, from india in a sam state, at least 14 people have died. malaysia downforce, a storm that swept through western germany has generated 3 tornadoes. one person has died 40 others have been injured. those headlines for these continuous here.

i'll just 0 off the inside story. next. ah, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. this is, i don't need to be here on the mac, and i'm just gonna put them on your team. and also you can just get a message. can you open the home and ya today? and we're going to give you what we set up, what the hell didn't the pull up with me? i'm a lot of my mother just leave me when i know. i mean, i mean,

i shooting off the edge of the ah how is watched as economy performing under western sanctions? the u. s. e u and their allies, imposed unprecedented measures as punishment for invading ukraine. moscow says the country is weathering the storm. so what's the re, a picture? this is inside story. ah,

hello and welcome to the program. i'm hashem, i'll borrower. western nations imposed some of their strongest ever sanctions on russia as punishment for invading ukraine. they include freezing, the central banks, foreign reserves, banning oil and gas imports, and suspending rushes banks from global financial assistance. the measures were man to cripple its economy, but the russian rubel is trading our 2 year high against the us dollar researchers in phil and found revenues from and as he sells to the you have nearly doubled since february when the war began. and the american investment bank, j. p. morgan says rush as economy is performing better than expected. still, the international monetary fund expects the economy to shrink by 8.5 percent this

year. but his ability to limit the initial shock of sanctions has frustrated west. the leaders, so how has it whether the storm russia doubled interest rates to 20 percent when sanctions head to help increase demand for the rural capital controls or imposed businesses, had to convert 80 percent of foreign currency revenues to roubles. remittances abroad was strictly limited. most significantly, russia has had a steady flow of foreign currency from its vast oil and gas explores, a jump in global prices offset some of its losses in export and production. all that has seen the rule will not only recover but achiever high, a value than before. the sanctions rush as president says, europe is committing economic suicide with his sanctions. i guess it was going to give you a rejection of russian energy resources means that's the medically, in

a long term perspective, europe will become the region with the highest cost of energy resources in the world. and now, frankly speaking, as the result of the chaotic actions of our partners, in addition to the damage to the european economy itself, you're actually having an increase in the revenue of the russian oil and gas sector . and, but donnas is the latest western company to pull out of russia. one of the world's most recognizable symbols of capitalism opened is 1st restaurant 32 years ago. as the soviet union collapsed. it's now selling all its outlets to a local business. ah, lettering in i guess from moscow via ch islov mishenko, an energy markets and oil gas expert in tashkent, chris weaver, chief executive officer of the consultancy macro advisory and in paris,

eric shani and economic advisor to institute montana. a think tank dedicated to public policy in france and europe versus lab. how do you explain russia's brazilian economy despite the string of unprecedented western sanctions? you mentioned in your coverage to bass a much better. don't expect that. i would like to stress the russian oil and gas flow grow. and so still, despite all the conversation about implementing strong measures, hoping, stopping for actually goals then despite the fact be dependent on the russian get why and europe is very high, so it over. so russian market in europe over 30 percent, and even now, just about 40 percent. and some countries like central to europe,

it's more than 80 percent and gas balance covered by russia and get in that it's not easy actually. it's a great one. just stop flowing and the buying and still having some trading relationship. so in this, by the oldest press, all the political, you know, just political dispute. it give you no more to the market. it's very nervous about the, you know, stopping, and then the just, you know, not having russian supply and it press on the, on the price it, and prices very high profit rather than or less for companies, chris, the economists were somehow predicting the g d p of russia to contract by 15 percent. that does not seem to be the case now, is it because of exactly as the law was saying,

the high revenues when it comes to oil and gas exports, the helped cushion against collapse of the economy. let's show that. that is the reason you have to look at the rest of the story in 2 parts. there's the financial side in this economic side. so as i've said, the financial side is made very strong because we see continuing high prices for commodities or gas. and russia is continuing to export almost at maximum at this stage. the sanctions are not yet slow that down. so the 1st month of this year, the country ran a trade surplus of a $107000000000.00, a current account surplus of close to a $100000000.00. and that money, of course, is all coming back to, to russia. but on the economic side, we can see deterioration the economy of industry, the finance industry are all warning that there will be a big downturn of the economy in now in q 2. and particularly they believe the

worst will come in q 3. we already hear from companies that they are running short of components. they can't import products. so companies are starting to warn about short term working. but if not even the close shut down. so we will see a rising unemployment. we have seen a drop in incomes, and that's affecting consumption. so we are still seeing this deterioration in the economy even though the balance sheet to be like is very strong. but, but right now it looks like the deterioration is going to be significantly less than has been fierce the economy ministry this week said they expect to be to contract to share by only about 7.5 to a percent, not 15. and that's because the government can afford to continue paying for subsidies. eric, the central bank says the thought of the crisis may manage somehow to offend off an

economic collapse by increasing the interest rate limiting the the remittances can continue doing that if the sanctions continue for a longer period. you're right. the decisions taken by the jury in the head of the russians bank and she's very good job, was a very tough decision to raise interest rates the 20 percent. but i think the goal of this top decision was to have to keep the currency approach. you might remember that the rebel in the 1st stage went down quite sharply. and that's why the central bank raise rates to 20 percent. but of course, there will be huge consequences for the economy. the russian economy is sensitive to interest rates and to inflation as far as incomes are concerned. and it seems

that for russian companies that cannot borrow from the road because they are excluded totally excluded from the western financial system. at least they can find a lot of money from the central bank, but at 20 percent a given the indicative of variable rates there will because it is on the corporate side. so this monetary policy was, i think, quite small. it has helps. that was not the only intimate, it does help to keep the rubble where it is, which is a great success. and i don't think that was expected. but the consequences for the really economy are the biggest you because you cannot have a ok can. it's just love the russians, hon. the, the own assets abroad. they could tap into those assets to pay for a, for, for, for debt. now the us treasury think that it will not allow the russians by the end of this month to further use the financial system to pay for the debt. what is

likely to mean for the russian economy. and actually it is cold technical default, but it doesn't mean the brushing financial authority can they, they can say, and they ready to pay. but you know, this is the, in the political or apple from the political angle. this is kind of technically possible. but you know, it depends on the, on the position of the party, i would like to try it again. but so the question market in general. yeah, i agree. i agree with the, with the mind there is a implement implementation of financial planning goes well, but because mickle site from lou decrease of the economy you mentioned, but not till the 8 percent it up to the 5 percent, which is the latest calculation actually for the year, but again, the revenues are huge and revenue very strong from the expert or not. it's not only

will it just all the material and in the market back to rush expert. and by the way, rush for the new market and the, the information of the media has become the number one bio process cruise for the last 2 months. so it's actually triple, even just for the short period of time, the, the, the coaches of russian material is actually a special oil. that's very dealer to the russia finding new markets. chris, the european market, has always been crucial for the russian economy. but what happens next when the europeans, this slide, it's about time to finally turn them back on the russian gas and oil. ok. first of all, for sure it will be,

it'll be damaging. but it's important to bear in mind that russia has been dealing with sanction since 2014, back in 2014. europe was concerned about dependency on russian energy imports. but moscow also started to get concerned about the fact that it was, it was also very dependent on europe as the buyer of its energy. and actually, over the last 8 years, russia has made a lot of progress, a much more than europe in diversifying each customer base. so for example, right now, china is the biggest trade partner of russia, whereas preach it as a 14, it was germany. so therefore, they, the system, to some extent, has been diversified. russia is no longer as vulnerable to europe as it used to be . and as a previous speaker said, russia is now being very proactive, even the last few months in, in looking for new markets. india, as you mentioned, is certainly one that is emerged strongly as

a potential buyer. and even if russia is offering its oil and gas at a discount bearing in line to prices are not significantly higher than they have been over the last few years. this is why rush is now earning a significant amount of money, trade surplus of $170000000.00 in the 1st 4 months this year. and it's running at about $25.00 to $30000000000.00 a month right now. that gives a significant amount to financial resources to subsidize the economy and to start, if you like, lead just in the economy for long term sanctions. if it needs to. eric is europe ready for a day when they will phase out russian and as you and supplies? or is it just an issue of political leverage they are using now? and they seem to be not really genuine about 7 economic times with russia. well, i do think that it's more a question of when than a question of,

if i think the political shock in western europe, but especially in germany because the whole energy policy of germany is based on russia. and guess if you will, not only for the production of the tricity, it's also for the german industry. we say it's thanks to the russian gas that we are competitive. that was true. and now everybody understood that russia is not a reliable supplier of hydrocarbons of 14 feuds. the soviet union was reliable. russia is not when mister picking decides to supply you could supply. so i think it's going to happen. but slowly, because germany made enormous mistakes in its own energy policy by putting its egg or its eggs in the russian pipelines, if you want. but the decision, the political,

the soon it is taken, and there is no way i think europe will shy away from cutting all impulse of energy from russia. idea leave that should be done immediately. and that is possible. but there is a very strong political resistance from the german industry and from the german social is to do that. so that will take time. ok, but i think in one year time, europe will, i've cut it's supplies from russia. we'd have started to diversify its supplies from other guests suppliers, as far as is concerned, it's not a problem because or is a global market. gas is much more complicated. and a lot of countries in europe have decided to relaunch their nuclear plants with, with the exception of germany, of course. so for all these reasons, i think that europe will be able to get rid of russian supplies. you're going to

take more vicious love when you look at the economy now and you see the indicators, prices are soaring, inflation is likely to hit 20 percent. unemployment is on the rise. could this be the real indication that there is something wrong with the economy now in russia, in all the things, and we'll be moving so fast, we can rely on, you know, just, just because the numbers actually let me just argue 11 thing on a reliable plot, actually we, we shouldn't lose the chain below your team actually. so nobody caught a line actually. so the russian, they resort financial reserve book, proven and see actually it has been really hard to, to supply, become more effective to your market in and the current,

the euro and indoor in fact, so that the cable is actually quarterly. or actually the euro's on the special account come down in terrible, bad, big worry. so nobody stopped and nobody caught the supply actually. so it's doable that so i mean, back to the numbers i think we'll see some recovering even now with was it just, you know, just the price just, you know, just in regular, you know, russian store and the store number think i'm going back to the going back from the shore, they used to happen and be on the february and march. so it was kind of the motional reaction to the van to the political situation, but now was back to normal and new bullet strong just because the regulation, but because of the huge ion disproportional in all trade balance. because russia export much more than input now because of the restrictions and that pushes ruble

to the level with the since 2018 probably. alright, chris, since you started your conversation with us saying that it's about time to look at the financial aspect for one on one hand and the economy. on the other hand, when you see the economy with experts saying that you're likely to see 2000000 russians lose their job this year, this year. couldn't this be the indication that he's going to be a serious fractional problem with a russian economy from now? always? i think there's no doubt the economy is facing structural changes. clearly there are, but there are so many scenarios you could talk about whether you want to be optimistic or pessimistic. a lot of which will depend on what happens to commodity prices and therefore the government's cash flow. what happens with sanctions? what happens best the on. so many aspects which will have an input,

but the fact that there will be a structural change in the economies without doubt, russia is going to have to become a lot more diversified in its trade and sourcing of materials. it's going to have to find ways to create, use you areas of employment in the future, and that transition is going to be painful. how painful will depend on how much money the government has in the budget to provide subsidies and to pay for for this . and that's to incredibly courses linked to how much commodities that exports and what the price of those commodities will be. so it's too early to say yet as to whether or not there's going to be 1000000 people in deployed or 1000000. we do, noted the government is very, very focused on job preservation. we saw this week, for example, the notes been from marino, that it is selling its business to a local buyer on mcdonalds, which employ 62000 people in russia, has also sold to a local buyer. and we know that the government is providing subsidies is involved in these transactions because it is quickly,

it is absolutely focused on job preservation. and as we start the conversation to say they can afford to do that in the current situation. the question is, how long will that cash flow remain sufficiently large that they will be able to question to you commie? from the more pessimistic scenarios, that's an enormous question mark, eric, they watched starter the sanctions to send a clear political message to the russian government that they will not tolerate what is happening in ukraine. the war a great, but the sanction themselves are trigger and a global economic crisis with the soaring prices. particular when it comes to food and energy. could this backfired in a way or another raising into national discontent over what is happening? well, that's a very important question, but i would, but it's slightly different. the it's not only the sanctions that's the sanctions

are having a deep impact on the rest of the economy. they also have an impact on industry prices as you set up. but the fact, for instance, that food prices are rising, obsolete t not linked to sanctions. there are goes by the fact that the russian navy is blocking ukrainian exports of weights. so it's the wall decided by russia that is causing this so ring energy and foot prices. and i'm afraid that as far as so prices are concerned, the consequences might be very dire for a lot of countries. i think of egypt for instance, where population is really already on very low incomes and, and very, very quick to go to social and political unrest. we are going to see a lot of consequences. could that back fire on the sanctions themselves? i don't think so. there is a huge debate in germany again about what would happen if germany cut it, sir,

supplies our natural gas from russia. so that will be done progressively, and i think that we are going to have a recession due to this. this big shock there is less energy on foot supply, but there are also higher prices. so when you put that together, that is one of the reasons of speculation. ok, but this is going to prove temporary, and that's why i don't think it will lead to a. busy you know, 2nd thoughts about the sanctions. ok. even go so far as saying that the sanction so far have been relatively light gas from bank is not sanction spare bank is not sanction. so germany has obtain that it would still be possible for russia to export on ice island gas in europe versus love. going to have more, not less okay, versus la very griffey, if you don't mind. now, russia has been working for quite some time on 2 key assets,

one reasserting itself as a trusted supplier of energy to a key player in the global market on the 2 aspects. it is suffering now because it's now being more and more isolated from the global financial market. and number 2 is not really why this in particular, you are someone who we can trust when it comes to the supply of gas and energy. could this be the, the main setback facing the russian economy in the future? i don't think so. i think we all of our global changing a change in the market. actually this came on the market. so i'm in russian can what it is and russian that will be, will be looking for, for the new markets and for the, for the market with it. so it's not the secret that the, the key demand is being formed in the east asia. countries like africa, you mentioned not only on the you but on the food as well though you might call it

just mentioned we yeah, there will be some, some trouble to expertise. we actually rush implementing some, some expert baton for some, for some period of time because russia is the largest export weeds in the world. so i mean, but still so demand of their population, the local population is growing. so i'm in, so despite the financial trouble and the sanction, i think function the, is it that down. so they, the younger that they, they actually harm all the global trades and relationship. i mean, the comical thank you probably, but it's more just the solution. actually, i think they will be finding new ways a new platform like like but you know, just new new technology is actually it will be supporting the, the experts and element financial. the gentleman will have to leave it there.

justice love mishenko chris with her actually, i really appreciate you and i thank you and thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha, inside story. can also join the conversation on twitter. i would handle it at a j insights for. mm hm. mm hm. and the entire team here in doha bike with ah the stage is set and it's time for

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