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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  May 28, 2022 1:30am-2:01am AST

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ah, ah ah, ah, hello there, i'm miss darcy. attain this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the wealth of business and economics this week, the push to counter china and asia. u. s. president joe biden launch is the indo pacific economic framework. so what's in the new pot, and will it help build washington's relations in the region? also this week, ukraine's economy as running on fumes, the u. u. s. and the g 7 of come to the nation's aid with billions of dollars, but is it enough to keep the country running and a wealth of mineral resources and africa? minors are increasingly looking to the continent, has the wild scrambles for metals. so we'll africa's mining industry. you see a boom from the war in ukraine. ah, well, the u. s. has lacked
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a defined economic plan with the indo pacific region since former president, donald trump quits a multinational trans specific trade agreement, back in 2017. now president joe biden is attempting to re engage the region that's increasingly come under china's influence. bible has launched a new trade deal with 12 countries that represent 40 percent of the wilds economy. that's almost $35.00 trillion dollars in global output. it includes estrella, india, japan, south korea, new zealand, along with 7 southeast asian countries. but the us didn't ask, tie one which is seen by china as part of its territory to join the new trade deal . the indoor pacific economic framework for prosperity or i path aims to increased trade links in the region, strengthen a global supply chains, promot infrastructure investment and clean energy, and establish new rules on tax and anti corruption. but it doesn't include any tariff reductions and the founding countries will still need to negotiate what
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standards they wish to abide by how they'll be enforced and how to consider potential future members. the initiative comes less than 5 months after the china lead regional comprehensive economic partnership went into force linking 15 asia pacific economies and the world's largest trade blog. most of the countries which signed up for the us lead framework already belong to the block with china. while meanwhile, beijing has criticize the u. s. pact as an attempt to create a closed club. this is what the chinese foreign ministry spokes person had to say. leash mean with a cheerful, to pump general the whatever the name of the regional cooperation framework. it should promote free trade. instead of engaging in protectionism in disguise. it should contribute to the world's economic recovery rather than destabilizing the industrial chain. it should promote open cooperation instead of political confrontation. the u. s. should earnestly act in compliance with the rules of free trade. now, biden has also held a summit with the so called quad group,
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where the leaders of the u. s. japan, india, and a straightly unveils and in the pacific maritime surveillance plan and pledged $50000000000.00 an infrastructure investment. now to discuss all of that, i'm joined by n press to see the se, asia experts and associates director at global council. that's the strategic advisory business son. he joins us now from london. young, thanks so much for your time today. and now i pass isn't a free trade agreement. we're not talking about power of production will necessarily opening up us market. so what does it actually do? look to you, right? it's not a free trade agreements. and the main purpose is more to put for the countries in integrate in to seek to align on things like technology, standards and regulations. and for these countries to make real commitment to improve conditions on things like supply chain resilience on clean energy, infrastructure corruption and, and labor and competition policy. and it's more about the technology standards and
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coming together to, to, to align regulations. so that all sounds like it would potentially require countries to change role as at home or other incentives for them to do that. so exactly, so that's the point. that's one of the, one of the issues with this agreement in a lot of these countries do probably not see eye to eye on a lot of things. and so the complication is that they might not come to an agreement in terms of incentive. so you're right, there's no incentives in terms of better access to, to do, to the american market for lobby's countries. but that's not to say that they might not become that in the future. obviously, it might become something more tangible, perhaps motor free trade agreement. but something more tangible in the future, not is not something about these countries. countries like the nom in, denise, i would like to miss out. so i think it's important to note that this is more about what is actually in the agreement. it also has a lot of symbolic value. it's a sign that us wants to become more economic involved in the region. just something
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pretty much all of these countries have called for for a long time and which hasn't been doing. and it wants them wants the us to become more of the account to, to, to, to time employment, and for them to be able to, to balance out for, for instance, $4040.00 countries into solving face and region and being able to play both the us . i'm trying to get them loaded labrat, you could argue. so speaking of countering trying to influence, i notice that it obviously experience taiwan. now, given taiwan roll is a leading manufacturer of semiconductors, for instance. how meaningful would any agreement on say, supply chains be given that taiwan is not being included? yeah, so 1st on the exclusion of so on that was probably not a big surprise to us. it's been pretty clear that he wants to focus its relationship with someone, but actually i think a lot of these countries in the base, especially as well, would have been uncomfortable with being in a group including taiwan that is so clearly set out to count to chinese influence and i still think you've had some importance obviously it's, it's
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a negative that one is not included. you still have countries like south korea and japan, which obviously are huge semiconductor manufacturers themselves. not just now, but we'll all to be in the future. so in that sense, it could, it could really have an impact as well. so well, if this was about the u. s. trying to restructure it's engagement with the region to counter china to, to show it strength. why not just rejoined the trans pacific partnership for t p p. and so i think they're mainly domestic constraints that are holding us back from, from lead, from joining the new c p t p p. if you look at the economic agenda as above the trump administration, the by the space, and it's been very focused on our strength thing, the american manufacturing base. it's been about building america and it's been about buying american. and if you joined the new launch free trade agreements, which will open up and already very open american economy. and i think, and that is something that could potentially road the american manufacturing base, which has been
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a key speaking point me key issue in domestic debate. and obviously that could potentially be highly unpopular and it's not something you really win elections on . but you have the midterms coming up later this year. and that's, that's a sensitive issue at home. so i want to ask you though, about how this might affect china, because i was looking at the list of the countries who signed up to i, pests and huge number of these countries are also part of the world's biggest trade lock with china. well, this actually have any kind of an impact on beijing's influence in that case. and so it's actually interesting that if you look at the, and if you look at the, the statement when they announced the deal, it was made a point that this, that this group comprised the 40 percent world to the p. i stand with chinese members is only 30 percent. the, even though it's not a free trade agreement, i assume the us still wanted to make a point. the thing, this is the big more important and it could become a free trade agreement in the future. and but to your question,
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i think i think the fact that some of these countries in the region, cambodia laws and did not join tells you that the company didn't want to be part of it. and how old are they to, to, to, to not be included. and the other countries that sitting a bit on defense wanted more your involvement at, they've still opted to join. and that tells you something about that. it actually has a future and build something that's and that can be real about it. so yes, i want to get your thoughts. finally, on the u. s. perspective on the whole region. it's obviously sensitive region both for trade and security, which do you think is trumping the other, especially now given the war in ukraine and biden's, most recent comments on taiwan and security still build trumps everything. and not just because domestic politics is constraining the americans from, from being like nominally involved. but that is ultimately what they, what they come back to. it's about protecting ceiling. it's about protecting,
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and it's about protecting too long and other allies in the region. so security, it probably more important for the american even though they, they can afford to, to show that they also want to, to be more economically involved to date. and all of that very much related one to the other young process, the se, asia expert joining us from london. thank you so much for your time. and thanks for having me. the, let's turn now to ukraine, buildings and bridges destroyed farm land, tons of battlefields and ports blocked from exporting grain and goods. ukraine's economy is in ruins, as a result of russia's invasion, and he desperately needs money to pay salaries, finance, public services, maintain infrastructure. president news lensky appealed to well need is that the well jeff nomic for him and doubles to increase funding and help rebuild his shattered country after the war ends. the european union has pledged more than $10000000000.00 and financial. it's just 24 hours after the canyon president made his appeal,
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the group of 7 leading economy. so g 7 has pledged almost $20000000000.00. while the u. s. approved an additional $40000000000.00 and military humanitarian and economic aid, bringing the total u. s. assistance to you, grant, almost 54000000000 dollars this year. that's the largest package of foreign aid passed by congress and at least 2 decades. but the ukrainian government estimates the country needs an additional 5000000000 dollars each month to cover essential services and pay. so as a salary, the well bank says the economy is set to shrink by as much as 45 percent this year . now you can export $4500000.00 tons of agricultural produce per month, but grant exports have more than half this month. customs revenue, the significant part of the government's tax take. it also crashed to around a quarter of their pre war level. the direct damage to ukraine's infrastructure alone is estimated at more than $94000000000.00. and the overall reconstruction
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effort is expected to cost. at least 600000000000. now, in addition to the aid packages, the u. s also says it will suspend tariffs on ukrainian steel for one year, citing the damage that rushes will in ukraine is done to the industry. ukraine is the 13th largest steel producer and exploits at least 80 percent of its production . and the you will lift import duties on ukrainian goods, including industrial and agricultural products for a year. well, joining us now from london, is it again? yes, lip service. she's a senior economist at oxford economics. again, you thank you for joining us on counting the cost today. it really feels like ukraine's economy in itself has become a bit of a frontline of its own. what you're reading is how kids is handling things. well indeed, yeah, ukraine striking the war on, on all fronts. military social, economic, the economy has constructed by about 45 percent in the 1st month, which is well, basically nearly housing. and there are signs, however,
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that the economy is adjusting since then. so from april on awards, and there are signs of economies adjusting and some regions have been liberated. so obviously the military response has been quite remarkable and economic one as well . both the monetary and fiscal response and has been quite professional and unable to stability, financial stability and stability off currency. and but there are challenges, of course, because there are huge costs involved, both wither related to the collapse in revenue. but also the additional expenditures required it required for the width cell. so this estimate of needing what $5000000000.00 every month, just for salary is an essential services. how far will or the aid go, especially given that we don't actually even know how long this wall will last. yeah, that's a very good question and is a big amount of money. i mean,
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$5000000000.00 the estimate of $5000000000.00 per month includes the fiscal deficit and dead service cost. so it's not just the, you know, that, but the daily costs related to social spending and et cetera. but also that, that service cost and it's split around around $3000000000.00 deficit. we've seen so far about one and a half to 2000000000 that service costs. and in so far the and the mounts that have been pledged by the international community and, and partners are bigger than what has been coming in. and so for example, in march, there was 3000000000 in april to it's very little. there was less than a 1000000000, and in march in may again. so far there's been a scale up, so there's about 2800000000 received. but it's certainly short been assured to 5000000000 that is necessary. and as a result the central bank had to switch on the money printing machine, essentially,
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and monetized are the deficits. and it doesn't like doing that. and it can, it is already putting pressure on the currency and will be potential increasing inflationary pressures. well, given that the world itself is potentially staring down the barrel of a recession, given the pandemic, given what they've now committed to ukraine at, what's your reading then on whether the west can actually even afford any of this right now? well, i think these amount to certainly of, for the bull, and, you know, we're seeing a lot of numbers in the media like a 40000000000 package from the u. s. or 19000000000 package from the g 7 and 9000000000 from the you. we need to understand that the real cash is much smaller. so from the us, we're speaking about a 1000000000 and it can be stretched over several years, according to the law. again,
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it's not clear over what period of time you plans to allocate 9000000000 euros. so you know, the amount, not as big as we're hearing and it is affordable. and also ukraine has been asking for an international partners reach countries in particular to use their as d r, a location that was given for and basically overcoming the corporate crisis and recession and. and there is about 295000000000 and allocated into in as the are and i'm have reserve currency to the reach countries which has not been used. so you bring has been lobbying for this part of that money to be allocated to ukraine. that's very interesting because we have seen this huge show of solidarity from the west. and do you think that to some extent, we're seeing an even bigger rift being driven between east and west, say, between the western russia and china. not only a politically,
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but also economically here. well economically, obviously sanctions are having a huge impact and russia is becoming more and more isolated. so, and clearly yes, it hasn't served well for us. it's place in the world economically and it will see it's done exports of gas and oil, also reduced by the u. even i'll beat gradually with china. you know, china east playing a balancing game. china has not taken a very clearly pro russian stance. it is still realizing that it's very much integrated to comically with the west. oh, very interesting indeed. we'll see how this all continues to play out of guineas. that's over there. a senior economist at oxford economics. thank you for sharing your insights with us here on counting the cost. thank you for reaching out. well from battery is to semiconductors cause and mobile phones, minerals such as copper nichol,
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vital parts of most of the products that many of us use every day. but they've suddenly become much more expensive and red because of the war in ukraine and sanctions on russia disrupting supply chain. many mining companies scrambling for new alternatives, and now looking to africa. so that's going presidents or i'm a person says his country is boys to take advantage of this growing demand for platinum. group metals. south africa produces half of the world's palladium, at least 75 percent of the world's platinum, almost 90 percent of the wilds radia. and that is also a major cold producer. but up to $2.00 trillion dollars worth of mental reserves remain unexpected. and the government aims to increase investment and it's mining sector to fold, to create more jobs and more foreign exchange. and it's not just south africa. the continent produced almost $1000000000.00 tons of minerals with $406000000000.00 in 2019. about 63 percent of the well, couple production came from the democratic republic of congo, the d r. c,
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and one the other well largest producers if tangela months and other metal used in electronic equipment together, they produce half the wilds output. 11 african countries are the main produces of metals, including gold, ion titanium is inc, and copper with gonna the continents largest producer of gold and botswana is the continents largest diamond producer. while joining us now from london is henry saunderson. he is the executive editor at benchmark mineral intelligence. that's a price reporting agency and consultancy focused on the metal supply chain. henry, thanks so much for joining us here on out of there today. should african countries be looking at this as a huge opportunity? yeah, they all are here, there's, he's off because with pretty much all the math book and minerals that we need to move from fossil fuels to renewable energy. and that's because batteries, they're all working out now. how to capitalize on this opportunity. henry, given the security situations and a number of these countries,
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just how reliable all these supply chains, you know, in a matter like cobalt which is used in electric, teresa supply chain, it's highly concentrated from democratic republic of congo. gets truck out of the country to talk to africa like dobbin and then it goes to china. we came out the plan to come under stress on our floods in durban. so that's an example of concentrated supply chain that perhaps needs to be done by the time be pulling the election last year. now saying they want to look the cobalt in time. yes, we could see that supply chain which is what we need, right? we don't want to rely on one country, one single supply chain, and we given the amount of opportunity that we're talking about here for both african governments and perhaps some other axes here. is there a greater risk of it? say labor law is all good labor practices might be flouted or that we might see increase political risk in some scenarios. mean
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a lot of your ryan in mining activities across the continent in which i mentioned, you know, that being concerns about people getting paid, you know, the right wages about child labor that you know, there's also which i think the reference might be which is going to become a source of graphite, the tesla, there's also concerns about an insurgency. so there are all sorts of political risks. labor, low risk that are going on. these do need to be tackled for africa to become a part of the supply chain because the other end, the customer, the comic has. they wants to know that the chain is audited and meet standards. i mean, you know g standards which are becoming more important sort stopped gap while the war and ukraine rages on or is this potentially a longer term shift? i think because they've got to be minimal. this is the longest time. and we've seen
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china, you know, the last few years, very heavily invest in africa. and even recently it's been chinese invested by assets in africa. and i guess the question is weston mining companies and companies going to china and we're seeing that happening already. and if they do that, and i saw that by the chinese side of the supply chain on the west side by chain depend on africa from a longer term perspective. but we're seeing western invest will come back to some of these countries. but you know, it's at the beginning stages. all obviously then have foreign policy implications going forward as well. so do you see this is part of the new scramble for africa from the west. again. i think the west has woken up. definitely. countries like the d. b, that's pretty much tiny back man. i think now the west is it the way that you know, way does that, can you know my so the cobalt is controlled by it by chinese companies. you know,
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may we need to engage with these countries and these are these countries. i'm the big problem for the west. but a lot of west and mining companies left. you know, left countries like the d. c, or, you know, be able to shoes because they became quite risk away some of that investors with telling them not to get, not to get engaged. but now i think by companies and government looking again, africa realizing, you know, we have to be that we have to be part a supply chain. scramble, i think demand for these minerals is increasing rapidly. and we don't want, you know, trying to control a lot of the supply chain if i didn't. yeah. it is a sort of probable guy on henry sanderson. they're the executive editor at benchmark mineral intelligence. thanks so much for sharing your thoughts with us on counting the cost. 70. now the cloth spinners and scientists and bangladesh has been working together to revive a special fabric dr. muslin was made for royalty, but the technique for producing it was last for more than
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a century. now it's back thanks to a red cotton plant, tons of reports now from the ryan guns. this rare cotton plant is native to bangladesh and for more than a century was believed to be extinct. but now it has been grown on france to revive trade in the fine cotton. as scientists who led the search for the plant says it has features not found in other spaces. it says he took his around 5 years to find the genetic match for this cotton plant. we collected 39 valence of cotton plant samples from different parts of bangladesh. eventually we found at dna much of the footy corpus cotton from the compazine region near dhaka university. now new generations of weavers are re learning this one's forgotten craft, but it's not been easy for from i'm willing to let them loosen, cuz initially i was skeptical of my ability. but eventually, after many months of study training and encouragement,
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we managed to learn and create the 1st muscle of sorry, after 5 months of hard work and presented it to the prime minister. it was a proud moment for us. the fabric is so light and fine that points have described it as woven the air spinners using traditional odin whales and hand drawn looms afterward for longer to produce muslin than other hand made fabrics. one ancient clothes could take 8 hours by 2 people to make requiring at least 6 to 7 months to make a full and sorry, the work is highly demanding requires extreme concentration and attention to details. men in bung with this claim, its former british colonial rulers, for killing of the muslim living industry by the late 19th century to make way for their own textile trade. but they're excited. it's returning and hasn't looked ovalo left us and we are very proud to be part of this great endeavor as the world
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will now get to know about our centuries old fame and heritage. since we're reviving this craft again in this day and age issues in my life, many hope the revival of muslim will be welcomed by the was high freshman industry . that once helped turned again, just delta and to one of the most prosperous parts of the globe. oh, that's how so for this week, do you get in touch with us by tracing me atmosphere, he attend to use the hashtag a j ctc. when you do or drop us an email counting the cost at al jazeera dot net is our address. that is also move you online at al jazeera dot com, forward slash ctc. that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links and hi episodes b to catch up on on. that's it for this edition of counting, the cost imus dulls the attack. and the whole team here, thanks for joining us. the news on al jazeera ah talk to, i'll just see room, we ask, what is the time table in your mind? when do you think that you are, can be off of russian gas?
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we listen or, and i have seen and played football with these refugees, i look at them and they're happy. they're smiling. we meet with global news makers . i'm talk about the store. restock matter. on al jazeera al jazeera correspondence bring you the latest developments on the war in ukraine. we have to take cover. this is what's happening on a daily basis. the medics is a, he is incredibly lucky. those coming out across the lines of no, no man's land where one of the few to gain access to this embattled town. they take us to their basement where we find others sheltering from the shelling these evacuation. now by so 3 days journey devastated buildings are now a grim reminder that the russians were here. ah of course it was not the right decision is

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