party gates and other scandals have taken a heavy toll on the prime minister's popularity. ah, so dividing the crowd where harry and megan, this was their 1st official appearance together. since quitting is working royal's in 2020. well, i'm sorry to say i'm not fond of harry and megan. i think they're very, very, very disrespectful. read. i loved it, and i think they should have supported to what i do have respect for megan. i think that she has some amazing things and perhaps is a tiny bit misunderstood and probably in the minority. meanwhile, buckingham palace is clearly trying to pace things for queen elizabeth. she's also been ruled out of a trip to the horse races on saturday and increasingly frail, elderly woman, who on surprisingly, is finding for days of partying. just a bit much will reach helen's how to 0. ah.

just a quick recap of the headline stories, the sour, ukrainian forces say they became some territory in the east and city of so there are done yet. there are reports of st by street fighting in the city, 80 percent of it is under moscow's control. if sir, daniel and neighbor less chance fell, rush would then control all of eastern landscape province present, resume zalinski, his praise, ukrainian resistance, and promised victory. opposition groups in the democrats republic of congo, calling for the government to cut diplomatic ties with bewanda. dozens of people have been protesting and capital can charter other want as elect support for the armed rebel group. and 23 is fighting companies, forces in the east and one person has been shot dead during a demonstration and see don. hundreds of people have been more can be 3rd anniversary of the heart to massacre when security forces moved in on pro democracy

activists counting. the cost is next, but we're leaving now with memories of our colleague sharina will actually mm. oh i'm with another one in the future. i don't need to be here from, with an honest with you. i'm a philistine for those, and we said at the home and a little the, we're gonna give you to where we started to what we have to put up with all the de la to come from the obama possible building for the, you know, you're the one i don't deposit in the now we'll see bobby hash out

of that was a shooting avita who lives as the final 3 places at the feet, but we'll cut all decided, we'll lloyd from the playoffs. we'll go the reaction from across the globe. the seems the school council 2022 will 4 is special coverage. oh, jew sierra i hello, i'm molly inside. this is counting the cost on al jazeera,

your weekly look at the world of business on economics. this week. energy prices are soaring ahead of the world bank says it's enough to trigger a global recession by itself. so ease of contraction of the world's economy inevitable. which nations almost at risk. also this week the british government takes aim at expensive energy bills. can the $19000000000.00 aid package ease the squeeze on incomes, or could the cost of living crisis get even worse? on pakistan's teetering economy, the country with ages. second, boston inflation rates is seeking critical financing from the i'm f, accounting, the pakistani government implement the required reforms. ah, the coast of almost everything from food to fossilize. this is soaring, causing consumers to spend less as government's aim to bring down the cost of

living containing inflation without pushing economies into slow down is difficult. and that's all, while rushes worn ukraine and pandemic disruptions continue to constrain supply chains darkening the outlook for the months ahead. so should we be ready for global recession? well, the head, the well bank has warned that russia's invasion of ukraine could cause a global recession. david mal pass told an event hosted by the us chamber of commerce. the germany is called me the wealth 4th largest has already slowed significantly while the us in china also thing flow of growth. he added a fertilizer shortage could work in economic conditions elsewhere. the world bank has already cost its global growth, will cost for this year by nearly a full percentage point to 3.2 percent from 4 point one percent. will the international monetary fund has also declined to rule out a global recession,

but it says, well, the economy still has a cushion against contraction. there are many headwinds to the global economy, the war could escalade, you could have sanctions encounter sanctions of central bank as around the world type thing. monetary policy, financial conditions could tighten much more rapidly than we wanted to be seen. and growth in china is flowing. so all of these pows downside risks to our forecast. so again, globally, i would say a 3.6 percent. there is a buffer. at the same time, there are countries that are getting hit hard countries in europe that are getting hit hard by the war where we could certainly see technical recession. now let's have a look at some of the recession factors cited by financial institutions. the m. s. c, i will talk index fell more than 18 percent since a pink in early january. and there's been a sell off in bombs, industrial metals, gold and crypto assets. china's g. d. p growth had slowed because of strict coven,

19 locked downs. the countries retail sales fell 11 percent year on year in april, while industrial production was down, 3 percent, and unemployment is rising. the u. s. is increasing interest rates and tightening its monetary policy to slow economic growth and bring inflation down. meanwhile, europe's households a suffering a cost of living crisis is prices rise much faster than incomes limiting spending. and the recovery from the pandemic found the situation could be worse than many developing markets where fears of a food crisis announcing to discuss all of this on join now from new york by megan green. megan is a senior fellow at harvard kennedy school and the global chief economist at the cro institute. thank you for joining the program. megan now the last global recession was brought on by the u. s. sub prime crisis. 10 years ago. all we entering similar

territory. no, so i think we're in a very different position from where we were before the global financial crisis. i spend all of my time looking for bubbles everywhere that could potentially burst. and it's actually hard to figure out where the exact bubble is in part. everything's kind of a bubble, but i can't imagine any of them bursting in quite as spectacular a fashion as they did before, the global financial crisis. that being said, we are slowing down pretty significantly in the u. s. the government is re trenching massively relative to last year. rates are going up, so the investment environment is, is less conducive towards spending. consumption is, is weakening though that actually remains pretty strong. and the external demand picture for in demand is really weak, particularly as china is slowing significantly there. 8 a lot of worries that the u . s. is going into recession, particularly because the central bank is hiking so aggressively. i actually don't think we need to worry about that in the next 12 months. mainly because of the

health of the u. s. consumer and the consumer drives about 70 percent of growth in the u. s. households have massive cash balances. so to businesses for that matter, there are 11 and a half unfilled jobs in the u. s, so i can't see the labor market really deteriorating massively. any time too soon, that being said, you know, the next 12 months, i think we'll continue to slow the 12 months after that. or when i think we need to worry about recession as rates go up, even higher making the i m f has also said that the world economy still has a buffer against recession. is that what you referring to? full employment? people saving, still intact and so on. that's right. so there is a huge cash buffer, particularly across the u. s. economy, given how big the stimulus measures were, the government push out 2 and a half trillion dollars into household bank accounts. and so the bottom cor tile buy income of the u. s. is burn through that cash cushion,

but the rest of hasn't yet. and so i think there's a lot of space for people to go ahead and use their savings to spend and keep consumption up over the next 12 months. at the same time, companies use the opportunity during the pandemic to build a massive cash position. so even the rates are going up and earnings are probably going down the risk there to the downside. they have big cash buffers to burn through before they really have to retrench. and it's when everybody has to retrench when we can expect the recession to come. so i think that that's coming certainly down the line, but i don't think it's imminent. i don't think it will happen in the next year. the buzzword seems to be stag depletion at the moment where countries faith sustain periods of low growth, but high prices at the same time. it's a very tricky combination, isn't it for policy makers to tackle? yeah, if every central banker worst nightmare because the central banks are supposed to try to support growth and demand but. 1 also to lean against inflation and keep prices stable. so if you have an environment where you have very weak or virtually

no growth, very high inflation and central banks have to choose which one they're going to support rather than doing both. if they had grease aggressively, they'll kill off growth, but will be able to bring inflation down. if they don't high grades aggressively, then it supports growth, but inflation can become run away and that's, that's, you know, a repeat of the 1970 s. as every central bank, worst nightmare to stagflation is something to be avoided to be sure that being said, i don't think the u. s. is going to be instead, felicia, over the next year, i think the euro zone is actually at the greatest risk of being, in fact place with incredibly weak growth this year. and very high inflation. you mentioned china that's been under locked down, which has weighed heavily on the global picture growth picture. but they've started easing restrictions. is that going to make a huge difference? certainly it will help, you know, will get a kick back in growth from china as shanghai in particular reopen and then also

more directly for the west. in particular, all these factory shutdowns will be reversed and so we can hopefully see an easing of some of the global supply chain snarls that we've been stuck with over the past at least year. and so that is one factor that's driving up inflation in the developed economies. and so if those factories stop shutting down, that should certainly help take some of the upper pressure off of inflation. one of the other issues in developed countries we're seeing is countries imposing exports on goods like india, lately restricting the flow of sugar, malaysia, finding the export of chicken, given the state of food, protect protectionism. what is going to be the outlook for developing countries? so i think that, you know, we are absolutely facing a global in food insecurity. crisis in a lot of emerging markets, particularly in north africa. and the middle east will feel the squeeze because

they're so dependent on imports for their food. i think we will see more export controls. unfortunately, i think it's the wrong response. but given that we live in an environment of protectionism globally, i think it's the most likely response. if you impose export controls, of course, you're just imposing rigidities and markets. you're not allowing markets to function and clear as they should, that ultimately just ends up putting, pushing prices up higher in that pushes inflation of even higher. but unfortunately, i think that's probably where we're headed in less than major food importers and major food exporters, go ahead and agree that you know, the expertise just aren't going to impose export controls so far. i don't see that kind of coalition coming together that kind of announcement being made. it's what we should hope for, but i'm not particularly optimistic megan green really good to talk to. megan senior fellow, hove at kennedy school. thank you. oh,

the rising cost of everyday items has pushed inflation in the united kingdom to its highest level in 40 years. millions of persons have seen the energy bills increase spot at least 54 percent. that's an additional $863.00 a year, on average for every household. the government has announced a $19000000000.00 package to soften the impact of the cost of living crisis. pulse of the money would come from a temporary windfall tax and the profits of oil and gas firms of around 25 percent . and the government says the measures would tall get the most vulnerable, including disabled people and retirees. in particular, more than $8000000.00 of the countries low as income households will receive a one time government payment off at least $800.00. in addition to around $500.00 discount on energy bills for every household. well, the government help comes off to the bank of england has raised the coast of borrowing from

a pandemic era low no point one percent. that team year hi of one percent. this is in an attempt to rain and inflation, but to spot the efforts to bring down the cost of living. a recent survey showed britain's can't afford to eat every day and all skipping meals as food prices rise . they fall co reports from london. o trouble at the tills. the price of staple foods his sword in recent months, with as many as to in every $5.00 britons now buying less to eat. and for the 1st time in 40 years, inflation, the gradual increase of the cost of goods and services across a year, rose to 9 percent with the governor of the bank of england warning of apocalyptic food price hikes. further back the supply chain, the middle men, a trying their best to absorb the rising costs. this is london's biggest wholesale food market where the industry's experiencing a perfect storm of problems from the pandemic to breaks it. a more recently the war

in ukraine, the crisis go on in ukraine. ah, with the floods going on in spain, diverse marketing costs, fuel costs breaks as an alps, as well, in terms of all the, the extra effort as be done. who knows what's around the corner of the war continues, is gonna get worse. the winter may a worse look, look, a, we're looking at our yeah. the, the cost of heating the cost of electricity is oh, going up and up and up. russia and ukraine. some of the world's largest producers of cooking oils fertilizes and grains. you said everything from bread to animal feed for the conflict means goods are stuck in ports or rotting in fields. produces the sellers are used to dealing with unpredictable situations from low yields to economic pressures to supply chain problems, but rarely have the issues come this thick and fast, leaving no time for companies to recover, leaving everybody from feel to for counting the cost. and what's

a worry for wealthy western consumers is potentially catastrophic for some of the wells poorest in somalia already cripple by drought, the war new cranes push fuel and fertilizer prices up by 40 percent. while in india, a decision to ban grain exports to protect domestic supplies. that is to push global we price is even higher. in the u. k. the national dish fish and chips is the can marry the coal mine. oil has gone up, pets has gone up. they've gone, it all adds on everything and joy public's paying for it, well, pay for it. and how much more can we pay for the cost of cooking oils increase 30 percent in 3 months and caught and had a becoming more expensive as global warming, striving fish stocks by the north, pulsing fishermen to spend longer at sea. and now russian fish has disappeared. the market, industry bosses fear a 3rd of the u. k. sufficient chip shops,

the close of the next 9 months, as the world bounces back from the pandemic. it's now out of the frying time and into the fire. greg swenson joins snap and london. greg is the founding part and london baseman and bank brig mcadam. thank you for joining the program. greg. what do you make of the new british household aid package? is that enough to ease the cost of living crisis? well, molly and i don't think it's enough to ease it completely, it will surely help. and that's the problem with subsidies and, and these type of welfare payments or transfer payments. you know, they definitely ease the pain a little bit or they, they definitely eat, you know, will help lower income communities with the, with the costs, the higher costs or the cost of living crisis. but it never solves the problem. and that's, i think that's the problem. is that more spending more subsidies will help in the short run, but actually creates more inflationary pressure in the medium and long term. and so

that's inflationary in itself. so it's not a solution. i think it's an unwise government policy. greg, the opposition also says measure is poorly targeted and will benefit those who are better off. do you think that's fair? i don't think it's necessarily accurate mullins so it, it is targeted and it does clued people who make over a certain threshold. so i think the design of the, the strategy is compassionate because it's helping people that needed the most. inflation by nature always hurts the people on the lower end of the income scale the most because they spend more of a higher percentage of their income on basics like food and energy. so it's always more hostile to, to lower income people. and that's where this is targeted, but a, it will work in the long run and solving the problem and be, they're not fixing the supply issue, which is really one of the factors that's causing inflation. but as i said earlier,

you know, printing more money to, to help people in the short run is compassionate, but it's not going to solve the problem to make inflation worse. bar. johnson's government has previously resisted winful taxes. he said it's said to turn for investment. so what's changed here, it is, it's, it's her, and i think we were all disappointed in here in the case to see the, the windfall tax announcement. i think there was some political pressures, you know, with party gate. they felt like there is a need to get it, you know, maybe change the headlines from the focus on party gate to something that's helping voters and it is a vote getter welfare typically is where government spending it typically is. so you know that the but the fundamentals haven't changed the party right now. boris. and, and the chancellor sound more like labor. that's what's changed is that the,

the conservative party is governing. like they're not really conservative. and i think that's, that's a big change. a winful tax in itself was the labor idea, wasn't it? so let's look at the dilution. we've seen the bank of england increase interest rates for times in just the last 6 months in an attempt to contain the hi and rising inflation. how much further do you expect interest rates to rise in order to get on top of this? it's a great point, marlene and i expect rates will continue to rise of granted, there have been 4 increases, but they're very, very small in nature. whereas you've seen the fed actually increase, you know, at a 50 basis points rather than the normal 25. so i think the, the bank of england has been a bit to incremental. they have to do it a lot more. it really has to be to the point where the interest rates that they said are above the inflation rate. right now they're below the inflation rate.

inflation came in at 9 percent. we expected to go to 10 percent. and as long as rates are lower, that is what we call negative real rates, where the, the, the actual inflation adjusted rates are still below 0. and that's the case now. so in many ways, it's too little, too late. they have to do more. the cost of living crisis is, is happening all over whenever europe, elsewhere in the world. how much worse do you think it's going to get in the u. k. and especially with attempts to get less dependent on russian energy, all they're going to be able to deal with it. yes, you know, in many ways, you case in a better position than the rest of europe because they were only buying 3 percent of their natural gas. for example, from the russians. it was very easy for the u. k. to stop buying any energy product products from or energy supplies from russia, whereas the dependency is much greater in the rest of the continent. we've all talked about germany, you know, importing 40 percent of their, of their not gas in

a significant amount of their energy overall. so i think the challenges will be greater in europe. as you mentioned, the bank of england has at least started the process of raising rates, whereas the e. c. b is, is way behind. they haven't indicated that their 1st height will be until july. it's way too little too late. craig swenson from london based merchant bank brig. mccadden. thank you for your time. thanks. molly. soaring inflation, a high current account deficit and foreign exchange reserves barely enough to cover 2 months of imports. pakistan is struggling to keep its economy afloat, raising the prospect that one of the wells most populous nations could soon follow sri lanka, on default on its debt. laid is on seeking to revive a $6000000000.00 bailout package from the international monetary fund to help pay the bills. pakistan needs more than $36000000000.00 in financing for the fiscal year starting june. and the government has increased the cost of petrol by 20

percent to pave the way for a deal with the i m f. the prime minister has been reluctant to end energy subsidies on rollback on funded subsidies to oil and power sectors. which all key demands by the i m f. the measures could hook pakistan is wallets and spark a public backlash at a time of political instability. on the decision to increase fuel prices comes a day off. the 2 sides ended week long talks without reaching an agreement to revive the loan. out there some a bunch of aid spoke to the countries finance minister miss smile. withholding discussions with the m. f in cup of capital, joe ha, walks on, continues to face a depleting foreign to this a spiraling currency and a current account deficit which continues to rise. and those are the challenges that a month old government is facing while facing unrest on the streets in pockets on

the business to discuss it. is the finance mister ferguson. mister, mister, man, thank you very much for speaking to us. you've been in talks with the i m f. what have you achieved and various bargain on headed? we've talked about this year's budget, we've talked about next year's budget. and in particular, we've talked about petra subsidies that the previous government had given against an agreement with the m f. and we've talked about how to resolve those things, how to unwind the subsidies and how to move forward in the coming year. so that the crux is that unless you remove those subsidies, unless you experientially increase the price of petroleum products, as well as some tax issues in august on the i, m. f is not going to continue its program. and that jitters, confidence from other investors in focus on other lenders to focus on as well. how are you going to build that confidence because your government seems to be facing a lot of resistance and it might be on its way out. first of all, i mean, let me just say that there is a broad base consensus in pakistan amongst all critical sectors that the m f

program has to continue and that whatever necessary changes that we need to make, in particular to pass on the real prices of of these foreign imported commodities, boyd and diesel, etc, that they're, that we have to pass this on to the consumers. and that's the broad based agreement, even including opposition parties that said, i mean, they may do politics with it, but that's, that's, that's a consensus. so, you know, doesn't really matter whether i stay as finals, mr or somebody else come. then if i, mr. over that are going to is not the will continue to work with the i m f. and i pretty sure that we would very soon reach an agreement with the m f, v, our government in place. and now the situation in buckets on seems to be precarious at best, where your government is being accused of heavy handedness, political activists are being rounded up. how are you going to stabilize by going on when you're not letting the democratic spirit stay on the streets at?

that's absolutely not true. we're absolutely not going to disrupt democratic the demonstration or the sub democratic peaceful democratic demonstration. but when somebody, as you know that you know the, we have got our police have got arms. no arms arms in, you know, in garza political opponents. so as long as p t, i promise to be school, i think they will be allowed. and in fact, i think the courts have allowed them to demonstrate peacefully, but they don't have the right to disrupt life. they don't have to write to occupy central government offices. they don't have to write to occupy main boulevard, to disallow us to go to offices. but other than that, i mean in brown, i've been doing one daily after the after another the last month. and he's been come to go on pakistan and in speak, his mind very quickly. you've a few weeks away from presenting the 1st budget of the government. very difficult economic decisions to be made. how confident are you that you are going to present a budget, which is going to be people friendly when you're facing an increase in inflation

and entries in commodity prices and even energy prices? how, what is your plan? what i mean, we take the in the next 3 to 4 months, we are going to get a handle on, on these increased prices. and that be the type monetary policy that we have. and it's likely consolidating a fiscal policy. we will get hold of inflation. we will get to control inflation. and once that happens, then we can, you know, loosen the monetary policy and allow growth again to flourish. so i think we have a planned we, we've worked with the, i'm, if we've reached, you know, some conclusions about where we want a economy to be headed. and in very short period of time, you will see both an agreement with the i m f and a budget, which is an intrusive reach. target's poor target subsidies towards the poor and, and which will not leave anybody behind on. that is also this. we get in touch with

us by squeezing me at my lane side of the hashtag acdc. when you do go drop us an email counting the cost at al jazeera dot net is our address. but this movie online al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links, and hi episodes. you to catch up on me. that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm money inside from the whole team. thanks for joining us. nice on al jazeera is next. when the news great, i know the guy will moving so this is the family is receiving mourners inside off to the body of this what i've seen when people need to be heard and the story told with social media, we have no idea what's written in that algorithm with exclusive interviews and in depth reports or the $22100.00 women, al jazeera, has teens on the ground to bring you more award winning documentaries and lied nice

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