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tv   The Bottom Line  Al Jazeera  June 12, 2022 4:00am-4:31am AST

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ah, i was sent to prison in 2000 i. * was a drink. one is just me monitoring the father of my daughter. i do not when parents are imprisoned, the company doesn't have any plans for the children lifted behind. for these children need for they need shelter, they're searching for love. my passion is to see that these children of prisoners are also given another chance to leave, like no more children because they're not a party to that cranes committed by their parents. when i finally get that place to build a home for these children and they see them become, somebody used to fall into society funding for themselves. it would give me satisfaction. ah, hello,
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i'm emily anglin anto headquarters. these are the top stories on al jazeera, hundreds of marches have taken place across the u. s. with demonstrators demanding tough a gun, knows the protest follow a series of my shootings, including one and a primary school in texas. and at a supermarket in buffalo, new york, last month my cannot filed this report from washington d. c. rain kept away many, but did little to diminish. the spirit of the thousands that came to protest about more than $19000.00 people in the united states have died in gun related violence this year alone. and after the recent massacre elementary school children in new bol, the texas, those here insist that enough is enough. we're not asking for a lot, washington d. c. 's, maria, summarizing the feeling of all at the rally. what demanding change your weather mad thing change now. we need to american a majority of americans whose share
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a bow used to let their senators know that they need either need to make change now or get out of our way for too often. we've had so many mass shoes across the country and we're not gonna sit around our houses in just let ahead, we're gonna come out. we're going to, so congress and everyone, one of our elected officials and we, we need them to do their job. many traveling from out of state to attend this rally to lula, came from massachusetts to attend this rally. what do you want to see? why did you come? you know, i came here because of my school and they found bullets like bullets in the bathroom. the boys bathroom, so it made me feel like i needed to be here for that reason and cause that this gun violence is becoming a huge problem. oh,
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the rallies took place across the country. i really want real property, including buffalo, still reeling from a racially motivated attack in may. that took the lives of 10 black people at a local market. it has shredded or our very existence. people are scared to go into stores. our kids are scared to go to school. it was the day on which hundreds of thousands of americans came together with one common message. my cana ultra 0 washington fighting continues around the eastern ukrainian city of survey done yet . de la hans regional governance says russian shelling has ignited a fire at a chemical plant where civilians as sheltering a mile president vladimir valencia insist ukraine will win the war with russia, but is asking its allies for more ammunition and weapons. meanwhile, russian shelling has caused extensive damage to a ukrainian warehouse,
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complex housing, 300 tons of grain in the black sea port of mc alive. ukraine is one of the world's largest supplies of grain and sunflower. oil, but exports have overt, stopped because of the war. futures receivable gotta live due to the russian blockade. we are unable to exploit our foodstuffs, which is so sorely missing in the global markets. the world will face an acute and severe food crisis and famine, famine in many countries of asia and africa. the shortage of foodstuffs will inexorably lead to political chaos, which can result in the falling of many governments said the asking of many politicians. and you can already see this threats approaching by just looking at the sky roxanne prices for basic products on the world markets and in certain countries. this is the direct consequence of russia's actions police into nicea, have arrested journalists. salah, a tier for comments made on al jazeera about the country's president,
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a tier reported that chi say it has asked the army to close the headquarters of the powerful union, u. j t t, and put some of its ladies under house arrest. and protests have taken place in several cities across the dan, calling for return to civilian rule. security forces 5 t guessing cut soon after demonstrate his barricaded straits with burning ties and stones. okay, those are the headlines. i'm emily angland. the news continues here on al jazeera after the bottom line. i, i actually appointments and i have a question. are the experiences of both the united states and russia in afghanistan, shaping the choices they're making today in ukraine? let's get to the bottom line. ah,
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it was a war that took countless lives and it costs the united states more than $2.00 trillion dollars, but it's also a war that most americans would really like to forget. in the aftermath of the attacks of 911, afghanistan was a 1st country targeted in the so called global war on terror. it was governed by the taliban, and the taliban had given shelter to al qaeda. so invading the country and toppling its terrorist hugging leadership was initially a really popular move by president george w bush. but by the time president donald trump was elected, it had become what he called a forever war. decades before that, russia had invaded afghanistan and tried in vain to control that country for 10 long years. last year, president joe biden made the risky decision to pull out and almost immediately the taliban were back in power. my guest today has had a ringside seat not only to the wars and ask in a stand from beginning to end, but also to u. s. government involvement in that region. over the last 40 years. he's also one of the nation's leading strategic thinkers and has important insights into the state of american power today, how it's perceived,
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and what he believe should be done in response to russia's invasion of ukraine. he is l may call us our former us ambassador to afghanistan and to iraq and the united nations. and most recently, he served as the special representative for afghanistan reconciliation up until he resigned last october and bastard county side. it's great to be with you today. look, i want to start not with afghanistan, we're going to get to that. but you have written a fascinating piece in national interest magazine. it is titled vladimir putin spirit choices in ukraine. and i'd love our audience to hear the clarity. you say that ladder reputed has an option. you can kind of keep things going and try to degrade ukrainian morale and forces he may escalate. he could try a conventional attack against the nato ally, or, you know, upgrade his, his response in that ukraine. or he might even, you know, make a nuclear attack at some level. and or he could find a way to some sort of acquiescence to a piece process. but in this, i just want to read something for audience. you said that the,
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the role of the united states, you see on deterring the use of nuclear weapons against ukraine. washington must indicate that such a step will bring retaliation along the lines of obliterating a russian formation in the black sea or targeting major russian land formation in ukraine. these responses need to be reviewed, preparations made, and that russia needs to know that will almost be permanently isolated even from countries like china and india. it's a very incredible articulation of what the response in a nuclear attack might be. love to have your thoughts about that. what the response to the article has been because i haven't seen any one make this kind of statement while thank you very much steve. it's good to be with you. with regard to the article that, that has been a lot of reaction, a positive reaction. reaction that says good idea out there to be debated to be considered. russia isn't a difficult situation and ukraine. it's very important for russia, it's
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a declining power, but is now styled jake about the empire that it had that it was an ukraine with a critical part of that empire and bloody may put in would like to restore that empire. but these miscalculated the, it has become much harder than he thought, the change objective already once from wanting the whole of ukraine to half of ukraine and in the have that the want that these having real problems. and so you face is, is very tough choices. and we have a, we could shape those choices by what we say and what we do, and the potential use of nuclear weapons in ukraine, against the nato ally of ours, or even a strike against the united states or issues that the broader elite and russia are debating and differing people are advocating for different options. there is no
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indication that rushes prepared at this point to do so. but the, the, the idea of the debate and put in references implicitly to nuclear options requires that we don't dismiss this possibility and think about it and try to shape russia and actions. well, let's talk a little bit about afghanistan. i don't know any one that worked harder than you did to try to get a different outcome then we eventually saw in afghanistan, you have the unique, i guess, responsibility and experience of having worked both were donald trump ministration of donald trump and joe biden. right in the same portfolio, very unique opportunity to try to negotiate with the taliban. because my 1st question is, is the taliban in place today that you were negotiating with different than the taliban? that we knocked out of power shortly after 911. what they said they were, or when i and go shaded with them,
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that they had made serious mistakes the last time when they were in power and that they had been punished severely by the united states and the coalition for one mistake and a mistake that they say they inherit ordering alco take, they may because they hadn't heard that from the previous government that they took over from in the ninety's or sound, but a lot and personally and as grew but played a big role in helping and a war against the soviets. in afghanistan, which we also contributed to, meaning we increase the price for the soviet so much over time. that to our own, surprised at intelligence was very surprised that they would grow. we thought they were very unlikely that they would draw because the, in the old soviet bridge and dr. an era when the soviets went into
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a neighboring country that, that there and pro sophia, that was one way highway ever give up number, sir, and never, sir. and i never would draw, so we help the most determine the most slum as fighters because we thought they would become the problems of the soviet union as they would try to domesticate the situation and again is done. but we succeeded beyond that expectation and to some extent, what we see today in afghan, it's on a still is playing out some of the things that was happening. and i knew you were of the world's leading experts on the soviet invasion and fall and afghanistan, right? and i remember listening to you was a young guy, it ran all these issues and, and i guess my question is, how did the united states fall into this seem track? are you became the envoy in dealing with so many these rows. but were you not during this time also saying we're,
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we're where they were there we are now where they were mean. well, so i was very hopeful that based on my own experience, because i went to afghanistan as ambassador of the united states during the bush administration. w and air at things looked very promising at the afghans or yearning for peace, they welcomed us. we won the war if you like to liberated relatively quickly, wouldn't not a lot of our of cost, but where me we may have, i've gone off track is that weeds embraced and nation building at today at turn, afghanistan into a, a member of the as zone of democracy, peace and prosperity. and the afghans couldn't come to an agreement on that despite either a huge effort and huge effort we made there, as you referred to in terms of the cause. at the end, after 20 years,
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and the world that changed and terrorism, i was not the same issue. afghanistan sensuality in the war against that or was not as important as at one was because there is a math disperse in true networks all over the place. and china add the risen as a challenge dealing with the problem of arising power besides dealing with the problem of a declining power. so by 2 presidents, both trump and by then thought there was time to leave. it was costing too much and we were in heading in the right direction. we weren't winning the war at the price that we were willing to pay that price with that level effort. we weren't winning. so what the site live i personally favored and that we make our withdrawal condition base. and that's why the agreement that we've made with the dollar money involved. but to who pulled the plug on that. i think both presidents thought that
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if we link our withdrawal to africans agreeing with each other, we wouldn't be stuck there forever because they're unlikely to agree with each other. so my, i mean, the investor, it raises a really interesting question and i was thinking about you the other night when we're looking and watching president, landscape ukraine and, and really out perform everyone's expectations about leadership, about what ukraine could do in response to the russian military. which maybe we had all been seduced along by putin's own rhetoric about how strong and slick and effective the russian military was. but i wonder if ukraine had happened before afghanistan, whether someone like president sharp ghani and other leaders in afghanistan might have behaved differently. and that it, because we saw total collapse of the will to resist a relative. i mean, i will, i should say the taliban or not the entire population of the country. right?
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i mean, so, so had ukraine come 1st, would we have seen more valiant, heroic leadership by afghans leaders that basically many of them ran out of the government. i'd have gotten government and forces underperformed. you mentioned over performing by president zelinski under performed given expectation. we then expect that president gotten it would run away and the afghan forces with collapse rather than stand and fight or at least more than what we saw. i want to ask you another couple questions of this, but one of them is about refugees and the, and the crisis, those people and also the people that were friends with us, interpreters and other supporters, that work not just for the united states, but our allies over there many of these folks will that some got away, but many are still in afghanistan, but even broadly, those that got out of the country, they're not being welcomed in mass in the united states. compare that to president
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biden's comments about wanting to accept up to 100000 ukrainian refugees. is there an element of racism? there is an element of discrimination between our friends in afghanistan and those who are current victims in ukraine. i don't agree we don't believe that we brought out of afghanistan, and during the 2 weeks at the end of august, over 100000 africans. and many of them add to the united states, some went to canada or other countries. and 2nd, the process is continues even her, recently i was on a trip to pakistan. and i in my private capacity, i raised the shoe of afghans who wanna get out, then don't that papers what can be done to help them. so this is a lisa pac man helping i have at the pac sun is helping fact. they said they're and they have allowed thousands to come out of that. the on humanitarian grounds, when embassies of asked for their help. so eh,
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this is an ongoing process. it's not finished yet. the, i think their military did an amazing job to a military to bring out over a 100000 people. no other military in the world could have done that. and, and, and 2 weeks. is there any hope that the united states may actually eventually normalize with afghan leaders? of course, the hope is there that a we will love normal relations with afghanistan that afghanistan can rejoin the family of nations. it was a respected, there, member of the international community. i during the monarchy that was overthrown and add some 1973, and then it continued until the soviet invasion. and then since then, afghanistan has been in one crisis, one kind of war or another. and the afghan people, urine, peace, a unity, an economic growth. and they certainly deserve it,
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that we have been good partners with them at times like in the war against the soviets, in which they pay. the heavy price may be over a $1000000.00 afghans lost their lives at 2 or 2. should your hope for that, why we're hopeful that even with the current taliban leadership, that areas of mutual interest could well, i mean, but if you wanna have commitments to us under the agreement that we sigh and not to allow terrorists to ab sanctuary their to plot then, and plan attacks against the united states, like it happened in the ninety's, when they were in at the talib, what in afghanistan? and i, we need to monitor, we can't trust them. my, the in a words are good that their words are good, but we need to see behavior. and that's why have a presence from katara and elsewhere. eric add to abbe over the horizon as we say, presidents to monitor, although it won't be as good as being in afghanistan. but we, we,
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we should do that as far as that is concerned. it played an important role in the negotiations. i joke with like, with a pompei a one time that i have spent so much time in ad caught that because there that's where that negotiation were taking place that i was i now a green card holder and cut to where you are. i go to cover a lot of your kind of a legend there. so you know, i, so they can play and important the role of the regional countries for i'd katara as an increase as our role as declined. and, and so it is a really a key, a contribution that caught that and others can make to help afghans come together. unity, as i said, that piece i because if they, there is, again, sanctuaries, for opponents and they're fighting goes on. and it could produce challenges including increased risk of terrorism to do every one pakistan is we're complaining about ttp, ada box danita, ala, bon and afghanistan. when i was there,
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so in that region as a, a much greater stake, dana, than, than the rest of the world in what happens in afghanistan. you know, if you, if you rico interview a lot of people that you know about sal kowal sod of some will say, well, you know, he's republican. no, he's it, he's worked with all these democrats. he's a neoconservative, the neo liberal, where he's a realist, deep down underneath. and so, and, and i read your book, which i would tell our audience is well worth reading called the envoy in which you don't believe in burning down bridges right. with any of these players, and i want to ask about one of these bridges that president biden may be burning down. and it has to do with afghan assets and about $7000000000.00. the afghanistan government still has frozen in the united states. the president decided to, to take about half of that money and save it for victims of, of afghan, a supported terrorism at some level and give the others to
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a 3rd party. i've always been of the view that that was a dangerous box to open because it, it closed down an option of dealing with governments. whether you like them or didn't, you were trying to move them where you were. is it a mistake to open up? is that a pandora's box that once you begin taking assets that are frozen from another government, that you end up foreclosing diplomatic options that we shouldn't do? right? well i said that is a leverage or frozen resources or assets have. but that's to be used very selectively or not to make it a regular path. they're not in terms of our foreign policy, because then it does the fact that people wouldn't want to have batteries or resources in the united states or on the f particular case. i think what the president has decided was to put to withhold 3 and a half 1000000000 in case the courts decide add that death.
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and the families deserve to be dead to receive monies from and afghans and the government of the time that the attack took place that taliban because of a presence that he hasn't said it should go to the families, it could go to the afghans at stick court decision and now all sides older up and making that presentation to the court to decide i am sure. the president goes under a lot of pressure and from the families than others to do so. and the taliban, i've not made it easy. i add to add to it to be helpful to them. you know, one of the things, just as we get into the home stretch here that i've been thinking about was, what's the future of ukraine? what's the future of afghanistan? you have 2 countries that are kind of caught in a vice and you make this clear in your national interest article that maybe maybe,
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perhaps ukraine may have to forego nato membership in order to get a different thing. ah, and we haven't talked about it but afghan as an sits and advice between india and pakistan right. doesn't control all its own temperature within its own borders, some rocks and it raises the question of so. so u. s. history with vietnam, we eventually normalized 20 years after the vietnam war with him. he's in winner. is there a way to escape geostrategic vices that both of these countries are in and, and i would say with united states, is there a way 20 years from now to potentially normalized as we did with vietnam to do so with afghan. oh, i think they're all several alternative futures and maybe more than several. yeah, i'm depending on the configurations and what happens certainly that there's one alternate. the future where i have janice done. i makes peace with itself. i with the different factions,
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ethnic groups and religious ad sectarian differences comes to a form agreement on a formula which has been the problem that has been no agreement on a formula that has brought support. there are thought ones, and there are republicans that there are people want, decentralized left can, is non, where different regions are more control over their affairs. others want this strong, central state road of religion. they haven't come to an agreement on that. they can agree to do and if they do. 6 and they do not present the country, does not present the threat to the united states. why not? doesn't an important region it as resources such as are the resources that the world needs and would want. and it should be developed in
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a way that that's important. also location, in terms of being a land bridge between central asia, which very much wants to have access to the warm waters which the russian empire will wanted to. but the central agent stays would like to be able to access the ports and pakistan order the markets of india and pakistan are important. but yes, you're right, that the regional rivalry between india and pakistan has had a negative effect on afghanistan on the struggle that does taken place. there was a support thing, another side. so that's unfortunately a fact of life and there is no prospect in the immediate future of india and pakistan coming to an agreement on many as issues that divide them. so i think that might be a challenge for us. kind of let me ask you finally a while back i interviewed vice president dick cheney, and my kicker question, which i'll ask you, is your, did he have any regrets about the iraq war or the iraq invasion you, of course,
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our audience were the us ambassador iraq how do you look back now? iraq, was it a mistake? which should, should we have done things differently? well, the question is that i had that, that time a was the timing. i was doing both countries and i will i martinez the time? al danny, as the and i that the william and if it's not the urgent can we ahead let finish afghanistan, ab, but there of course the judgement was made. i have had the regrets myself. questions about how we did it. timing is one, how we did it, did we need to a dismantled eh, iraqi army, and did we need to govern iraq ourselves who it was supposed to be liberation? we dis declared then occupation, government. and so it didn't have to be this way. and then we were we attentive to kind of regional meddling as much as we should have, particularly iran, which year took advantage of the situation. iraq and it is now
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a quite influential a and iraq. so a yes or i think it's clear to some mistakes were made. yes. well, and bastard sale may cau, thought is someone who makes me want to have a 2 hour show because this could have gone on for a long time. he has former u. s. special representative for afghanistan reconciliation, former ambassador, united nations, iraq, and afghanistan. ambassador, thank you so much for joining us today. oh, it steves a great to be with you. pleasure. so what's the bottom line? trying to change the course of afghanistan was an expensive effort that in my view failed. so i'm sought, as neo colonialism bound to not turn out well. vast amounts of money were spent in the might of the american military was brought to bear, but nothing changed. the geostrategic vice that afghanistan sits it the same applies the ukraine, even if moscow and key of duke it out. does it change geography in history? my guess today laid out a bleak scenario in my view,
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in which there are low cost ways to deter russia. but america has to be all in, even if it means facing the possibility of russia using new your weapons. these days are similar to periods before the united states got involved with europe in world war one. and then again, in world war 2, after years of hesitation, can the u. s. remains comfortably distant this type, the choice matters. as one choice gives permission for aggression around the world . and the other means major cos for the united states and its citizens. but it also imposes cost on the bad guys. and that's the bottom line. ah me what a sunday been doing with the money but it's boring. we bring you the stories and developments that are rapidly changing the world we live in. argentina is hungry and debating, and build, seeking to raise millions of dollars from the super rich, poor families, hit odd bike and counting the coast on al jazeera the
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