they're rather have their containers come through neighboring ports for cost, timeliness and things of that sort. but as i keep saying, the abilene gumby and customer will lose job opportunities and the taxes that we're supposed to pay for the taxman in 2019 the ports oppression a loss of 6. he did $200000000.00. and while no recent figures are publicly available, economy say that amount has only increased the is prashant london port. the government wants to open another in the south of the country to some parts of synagogue and landlocked miley will. 9 countries, not ports, development is expected to have cargo delivery times, but that could cause the country up to $500000000.00 money the country can't afford at the moment. senegal is currently building new ports and upgrading its transport infrastructure. this analysts say could undermine the gumby us efforts to attract investment. but bundle port officials say that despite aggressive expansion in the region, the gambia will continue to maintain its edge because of its strategic location.

ahmed edris al jazeera when jewel, the gambia, a hello, you know what you know to 0, these are the stories were following the sour colombians are voting in what's seen as the most fiercely contested presidential run off in recent membrane from a gorilla 5 to a sovereign petro, we're up against 1000000, a businessman, which over and ended alexander ram p. s. he is in a car among where and ended as his campaign, a lot of columbia. and so, or so, this stressful and so disgusted with traditional politicians that have decided to give an opportunity to at a man if he got 28 percent of the votes in the 1st round. but he's expected to receive majority of the conservative votes of the people who voted them or

established more traditionally politicians back by the establishment. and that puts them very close to the possibility of winning this election today. while polls in the 2nd round of the french parliamentary elections at closing and about half an hour president emanuel mccomb needs a majority to move ahead with plans to raise the retirement age and cut taxes. natasha butler has moved from paris. less than the hall for those eligible, that actually cause the balance of dumb phone. it's something that we've seen a trend in frauds in elections. in the last few years, people are increasingly disengaged from the political process. they feel fed off of politics and politicians and increasing number of people saying they actually just don't want to go out and vote. however, of course, there are many who have chosen to vote, and they are concerned by a whole range of things, inflation. the rising cost of living as course, as being fueled by the war in ukraine, but also climate change, education, health and social justice protest is in tunisia,

back on the straits to oppose the president's plans for constitutional referendum. next month. the main opposition party say it's a grab for power and are threatening to boycott the boys. at least 4 people had been killed in a blast in the afghan capital explosive heated vehicle carrying civilians in a district in northern cobble. it's not clear who's behind the attack. okay, those are the headline time emily angland. the news continues here on al jazeera. after inside story we understand the differences, americans have cultures across the world. so no matter how you take al jazeera will bring you the news and current affairs that matter to you, al jazeera, may till warns rushes war in ukraine could last years. both sides say negotiations

have broken down. can the conflict be ended through diplomacy? and if so, under what conditions? this is inside story flow and welcome to the program. i'm fully back table. it is now nearly 4 months since russia invaded ukraine casualties amounting on both sides. russia is intensifying its offensive to see strategic towns in eastern ukraine. they had of nato and britain's prime minister worn the conflict could last years. both have urged western governments to keep sending military support to ukraine to hold russian advances. diplomatic negotiations appear to have stalled ukrainian, and russian delegates last held face to face talks in a sample in march there since held meetings by video link. but ukraine's president

says they've made little progress to keep it a more mature in that even you, lula. such negotiations are currently at 0. everyone really wants to push us little by little towards some result that is definitely undesirable for us because we have not yet been asked for grant official for other parties that have grown interests or as a tiegs growing. people want some kind of results of ourselves, mom and we need a result of. our russia says the talks have reached a dead end. the kremlin has accused ukraine of being inconsistent with its demands . here's what president vladimir putin said in april. the last time he addressed negotiations directly, no greens, christina, ukrainian side move away from its agreements in istanbul. now the requirements for security guarantees is one thing. and the settlements of relations with crime, years of us to paul and a dumbass ought to be taken outside of those who reasons. so we are back in, it did in situation you lose 2 people, while negotiations between moscow and keith began. 4 days after russia invaded low

level delegations from both sides, 1st met on ukraine's border with bella rules. they came together again in march for a 2nd and 3rd round, where they agreed to form some humanitarian corridors. the 1st high level contact took place in turkey during intense fighting and bombardment in the ukrainian port city of mario pole. 2 hours of talks achieved snow breakthroughs, russia continued bombing on april, the 7th. both sides announced talks were entering a new phase, but despite many round fence, no solid cease fire has been agreed lest now bring in our guests in liveth demetrius shogi, european program director at the international renaissance foundation in brussels. theresa fallon, director of the center for russia, europe, asia, studies, and in moscow. pavel falcon, how're a defense and military analysts? welcome to your thank you for being with us on inside story demitra in ukraine. if

i can start with you. they were hopeful signs in early may, but then negotiations ground to hold with each side, accusing each other or for the collapse. are the conditions on the ground to day and the factors are they favorable to a resumption of demand diplomacy, in your opinion? think no, they say it is being decided and the bundle and the bug hold on. hold on boss for the east of ukraine position on 2 sides to live. utterly controversial, totally different, but it is aggressive or war of conquest. and today basically now open this says that officials openly saying that their goal is to seize ukrainian land and to change your grains, boulders until this monthly payments are in the home for granted. of course, it's so defense. so absolutely, there's kind of little ground for compromise here. so when you grant, it's

a totally different goal rebel that will be previously context finance. nice health on 20th february. so i think now it will be decided than the battle until there's some developments there will not see, i think any or assumption of meaningful assumption of meaningful gimme so in what frame of mind are the ukrainians right now, the russians have been progressing in the east even, you know, if, if slowly do the ukrainian still believe that they can win that with more western powers and ammunition that they can turn the tide. yes. yes, sherman ukraine, the result is here is there and ukrainian fighting. and the more absolute citizen, just that we need to fight, we need to defend our lapse. of course that was expectation probably that that will

take less time. it will be like not this long war operation, but they by all science, are there that it will take longer than expected. i think expected by everyone, including by russians as well. ok let's because if you from russia with patio, what's the mood like in moscow? puddle. is there any appetite in moscow to return to negotiating table? well, the official russian position is the brushes ready to dark. oh, but the brilliance though, not one till and they don't they know russian or position. they know what they should accept. they are not ready, duke said, then that means the, well, it's learned going could be a who both sides agree to disagree. agree do are along a doubt on the battlefield. the good old way and there of course, yes, the positions of the 2 sides have been miles apart or they will be marked, have been miles apart from basically the very beginning us and the moscow in moscow

. actually the war is not felt at all. it's very kind of peaceful said the and the general bob worked kind of most with tends to make it act as if there is no wars or this is the far as some happening somewhere in the far off land. there's reports, of course, about officials that official about the war happening about russia or the success of russian and a so called our troops from the done bus. small republics am than barry battering the ukrainians kind of grinding them into po. but, and that this is going that the russian operation is going to an end and success, but no one knows when, and this is basically more west accepted by the russian. but what about your sanction rush? but what about the sanctions pad on the sanctions and the fact that russia is isolated, is that not not resonating with people? ah, yes, of course, that's well known. the crushes are actually isolated though,

of course, again, the official line is that an arab nations urban and china, india, and latin america, africa curse, amorro, australia. it's the west that this against us. but this sort of kind of has and may actually help to of the authorities to rally with a large portion of the bub wake around of the ground. one of that we are surrounded by our attack by a very powerful enemies. and we show that together in support of the, with the effort of the cur, the brown kremlin, than the president. and the derek is going to be ok. ok, let's bring to resign to the conversation. not teresa, warring sides come to talks when there's a stalemate in a conflict or when one side has one. do you feel that we are at a point in this war in ukraine where both sides could be ready to talk? again? it seems that that's a bit premature at this point. i think that zalinski present zalinski has made it

quite clear that he wouldn't be able to give up territory. although he has said that he wants to continue dialogue and negotiations with russia. the war has turned on such so there have been so many debts on both sides. the idea of negotiations before we're kind of, you have to give up some territory to, to russia. so i think that this was one of the deal breakers. and i think that as long as it continues on as it grinds on, as we've heard the head of gentle to bert nato, the analysis is that this will grind on for quite a long time. the key question now is, will europe able to remain unified? because we see it increasing inflation, high energy prices and energy and food are, are deeply connected. so when you have high energy prices, you will also have high food prices in addition to the blockade of food leaving ukraine that's being stopped. so we're seeing a huge issue maybe raso thinks that they can play this for what it's worth and see

you're divided nevertheless, saw france, italy and germany go to get by train and they have announced that you can, will be a candidate country for you membership. how long that will take remains to be seen, but that's kind of a vote of confidence and a port ukraine. indeed, nato secretary general teresa has said that, you know, ukraine will require long term military support. and indeed, the ukrainians are pretty much dependent on, on decision and support from washington, paris to european union to get a sense that this support is now waning, as the war drags on. and that it could, they could be some lead up in supporting ukraine, the because of these divisions that you spoke about within european countries. i know you can is worried about fatigue, perhaps in europe. you see that the u. s. is the biggest supplier right now of equipment material. so germany has been dragging their feet. they've been making

promises and non delivery. and this is a worrisome message. also, france, hon crone has sent mixed messages about ukraine, saying that we cannot humiliate russell's in this really when tongue really in europe. nevertheless, france has been sending so weaponry. it's kind of not reported so loudly. but i think that there is a real division growing in europe. we see the central eastern european member states have a lot more empathy for and support for ukraine because of their past history. and we see other countries trying to make calculations in regard to energy and inflation it have to get reelected. so i think putin has played a very dangerous game here because know his biggest client, which is europe. he earns 252300 1000000 a year in energy payments from europe. he has now decided to recklessly put that on the line in order by turning off the top to many countries in europe. they are

never going to go back to such high dependency on russian energy and other countries like china will not pick up the slack they might pick up a little bit of it. but china is very clever about diversified. they will not allow russia to do the same thing to them that they're doing to europe. so i think that putin has really put himself in a, in a corner. and he's, it's in my view, almost total war. he doesn't care anymore. he loses these markets. demitra. teresa alluded to the condition some of the conditions and the non negotiating position of ukraine when it comes for an example to its territorial integrity. but do you think they could be some movement on some of these red lines if this war drags on an ukraine has to, to give up something, what would they be willing to give up? i don't know really. i mean, the photo integrity is really long. for sure, and whatever the future disagreement would be with have all that

i had experience of having a demo with russia and to be including for instance, the so called me it's going to remains broker and buy germany and france in 2014 problem 15 and we have seen that, so basically russia howard, basically those agreements, those agreements basically provided some form of settlement in the way that ukraine would give some sort of governance provisions for those land. so this, at the time in days, grain and the while, the russia will withdrew its forces from, from there, but russian never doing forces from the actually they used all the units to the fact, okay, by the factor next. that those, that it is. and now they use those to father ukraine and actually to also use even

manpower mobilized from some of those better. but it's actually in our service on the russian army and basically used as a kind of flesh on the russian army. and so you're bringing forces, right? so from that perspective, from this experience, so we understand that we never accept any sort of deal implying refusal from parts of free on land, right. what, what other things going to be there? what could be negotiated? i mean, i don't know, maybe there might be some negotiations about arrangements, particular things about i know some security confidence building measures and so on. but i mean it's, it's kind of now it's the collation because we really don't know the parameters, the keeper, and there are some of the few, right? diplomatic resolution of the public. because it really depends on the case guaranteed thing, which is where the phone will be there. what, what, what conditions will be, what, what basically who will, when will, when this,

let me bring in pavel, to talk about this, what pavel could be the negotiation negotiated rather as far as rushes concerned in previous negotiations, russia insisted about maintaining control over large parts of ukraine is that still the case today? what would they be willing to negotiate? at this point? i walked onto moscow. there demand key demand is dead or any kind of government or future government and keyed of will recognize crimea as sour in russian territory. irvin and those so that sanctions can be removed and also recognise the independence of the east is small and done. boss republic service. russia has oh, already recognized and then a baby. they could be some kind of negotiations about other territories. and as the periscope who asked and her her son are blessed that russia has since occupied,

that may be, oh, so could go somewhere, but maybe that's negotiable. i dunno ah, but if i understood also that ukraine and government right now is not ready to talk, take those conditions or sell them under the brush right now. the russian strategy is to grind the ukrainian mila tree grind their morale and serve at the beach battle in the dawn bus right now. it's very similar to that very the as the see the, the storming of and see job her done by the germans in 1916 when they didn't have enough forces. you'll get, have a know oh, out of offensive on the western, from the concentrated on one fortress of their bird, been using their so far power superiority to kill as much french as possible and break the morale of the french army. and right now, russia's branch trying to do more with the same, of course,

in the very different level of usage of power and man. but they are the fan to ukrainians. they're suffering their military heavy casualties that can affect around. and if a green morale begins to snap, then most when we're yearly brain would be ready to take the rush and conditions. okay, to reset, right now we are at a point where neither side, ab wants to give up anything. so what is it going to take in your view to end the stalemate? i think we also have to zoom back a bit of the bigger geopolitical questions here we see the un security council to members of them of the security council supporting this war. so it's a question of sovereignty. we know that beijing is watching what happens here very, very closely, and they're making their own calculus regards to taiwan. so these issues of sovereignty, i think her key will the europeans just sit back like they did in 2014 after crimea

. this is a much bigger issue. so i think that those who say, well, ask whether you are p in support for ukraine, long time european support for ukraine is justified. well, as i mentioned, there are some divisions within europe. and that there will be a meeting coming week of the council, which they will discuss this further on. the american side is quite interesting because i understand that there is less discussion between moscow in washington d. c. and there was at the time of the cuban missile crisis, and i think that's a green message right there. and the back channel reportedly is dr. henry kissinger, who is actually 99 years old. so he had counsel that you crank up some territories . so i think that that didn't fly very well, and i think that over the longer term, many analysts in washington d. c, are concerned that the u. s. is taking the eye off the ball in regard to china. they're worried about getting bogged down in a very, very long drawn out affair here in ukraine. alternatively, some see it as

a way to weaken russia or the longer term. and so they're very different viewpoints on this date. and russia is becoming more and more isolated in their economy is really going to suffer. theresa some experts have suggested that we could end up with a scenario like the one on the korean peninsula where ukraine is divided into 2 parts without a formal treaty. and that such a division would allow the western allied part of ukraine to prosper in the same way that south korea. hi steve, do you see this at all? well, my personal opinion would be that that would send a rather negative message ross a does definitely once it's kind of a buffer zone, but the ukrainians have made such a huge sacrifice in blood, sweat, and tears. to paraphrase turtle, would that be really the right thing? to do at this stage, i think it's too early to tell how the negotiations will take place. i think that is untenable for zalinski to give up any territory. that is an interesting

idea. but as we see that there's a great deal of instability on the korean peninsula with north korea and nuclear weapons. and let's remember that ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. and that all these countries, under the budapest memorandum pledged to support them and guarantee their sovereignty in that really hasn't held water. so that sounds also a dangerous message to iran and north korea. all right, gimme to your thoughts about this. some of the possible scenarios that have been put out there, like, you know, ukraine ending up in a situation like the one on the korean peninsula. and, you know, where do you see things heading and what would be the minimum acceptable agreement for ukraine? well, this korean formula might be one over the scenario. so of course, just let's not forget that with with the i mean, unlike in degree, i'm ace, we don't have really to korea,

to ukraine's identity show that basically you bring an arm in the russian army. so if we will have sci fi agreements will be on the line there, then it will be not between some ukraine and now other one ukraine. but there will be been been ukraine and rational forces and it's a key difference one. and 2nd is the question will how to implement this is fire in also a big question because again, with our own experience of the game is since 201415. where was the fire was number one of those agreements. number one issue, but it was never implemented and so it was always violated almost every day by a russian. and that's kind of, that's it. that's the question, how, how it can be for us to if it is important by international peacekeeping

or says whether, whether, whether, whether there is any international peacekeeping force already to come in for such as fire. so it's very complicated. be sure, i think so, probably it might be one of the scenarios, right? just on your phone there are various scenarios out there about how this could end. do you think this could and through diplomacy and if so how and when a war horse it will end unless somehow or through the boma see. but before that there's going to be a lot of fighting and no other bloodshed of the summer campaign has just basically began. and it will last maybe at least till this mid september, or maybe till october, when the autumn rains turned turned, they saw until the last see of dirt, the russ booted sir, and the fighting is going to will, if not end, it's going to waste

a become more oh, positions will be more stable and it's clear that the ukrainians hope that in august september they can turn the tables and have a strategic initiative and maybe go against the russians in advance of the russians . believe that they have the capability to grind down the ukrainians. so that's will be decided actually the battlefield full has the initiative who has the upper hand and then that will be translated somehow into a negotiating. a settlement may be by a new year, maybe next year. all right, teresa, i'll give you the last word. once we get to a point where the war is settled or resolved, what will be the future relationship of all these countries that have supported ukraine with russia was in a very intricate tapestry of interest. and i think that europe, especially poland, has really risen to this challenge. they have been such

a huge advocate for ukraine. so the fact that ukraine will be attending the country will help give them the goal of reform and give the people some hope and more morale boost remains to be seen if they will join you. but this actually provides some, a road map to the future. politically. i wonder if that will really happen, but i do hope that this will help them to reform and prevent corruption. but also we have to see that as puzzle mentioned. you gave the example of going back to world war one. the peace in europe is over. we can take any of these things for granted any longer. and we see the word here in march of both russia and china. and these are huge questions for us and then perhaps a dress rehearsal for what we're going to see in in asia. so i think that you're past the state united and strong, and it's an ogre down for the long haul. and in regards to energy prices and the winter, that's going to be coming. we see that moscow has cut off energy and that's

a traditional period in the summer is to fill up the storage facility. so i suggest everybody start that in some sweaters. so thank you. ok, thank you very much for a very interesting discussion. denito show that theresa fallon and paddle falcon howard and thank you for watching. you can watch this program again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can of course, also join the conversation on twitter handle. is that a j inside story from me for you back to go and the whole team here in doha, thanks for watching bye. for now, ah ah,

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