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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  June 20, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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talk about what the barriers to entry look like, what transition requirements look like, but out right bands for any trans woman who experience part of puberty. i didn't see it coming from the ceo of the sports. now have to decide if with its proposed open category swimming has set a precedent that they wish to follow. andy richardson al jazeera. ah. all right, let's have a quick check of the headlines here now to sarah and protests being held in the belgian capital gates rising cost of living labor unions of court for a nationwide strike that demonte better pay and working conditions that person has more now from brussels. i'm in the middle of the so very large rally in the heart of brussels right now, and i work as one right are gathering here. i think it's
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a very high living politeness. these programs i'm shopping trolley for example, because they say it's an answer to go into a supermarket who, groceries, because he simply found the point is groceries that the more coverage that all has blown up with more than 10, even 20 percent inflation is more than hey, percent, and on the other hand, their wages go up more than 0 point, former sad because of the belgian law. well, the cost of living crisis is also had an impact on the french election, where the president, losing his majority in the national assembly matte all matte concentra coalition. last dozens of saints, a new left wing alliance as emerged as the main opposition. while the far right mate, major gains, shoreline cur is holding urgent bailout talks with international monetary fund struggles to contain a spiraling economic crisis. the government says it needs a $5000000000.00 lifeline. delegation from the democratic republic of congo has
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received the only known remnants of an independent leader assassinated more than 60 years ago. the family of patrice lumber accepted the gold tooth at a ceremony in brussels. at least 230 people have reportedly been killed in ethiopia . and an attack in the aroma region. eye witnesses say the victims belong to the em . hara ethnic group, the autumn of liberation army has been blame for the attack, but it says it's not involved. millions of people in northern bangladesh, stranded by the worst monsoon floods in a century are at risk of food and water shortages. situational to remains critical in, in the northeast. in some state, thousands of people have died across the region since the storms began. in april. the head of the world's biggest airline body, i oughta says he is confident the industry will return to profit in 2023 cutter is hosting a meeting of world aviation leaders as airlines recover from the coping 19 pandemic yard, they were headlines. one news coming up here now to sir, after decide story of an school generations. this indigenous community has lived
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off of what the rain forest provides. but when they discovered that their territory was being invaded by gold mining projects all along the river, the community brought a lawsuit against a co doors government. you've won, you want him president of ruling, apply just the state to consult communities over oil and mining projects that impact their land and to seek their consent. the tiny, seemingly community has won a huge battle, letting me know necessarily have the last word. since the court ruling does leave room for exceptions in the name of overriding natural interests, nato warns rushes war in ukraine could last years. both sides say negotiations have broken down. can the conflict be ended through diplomacy? and if so, under what conditions? this is inside story
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low and welcome to the program. i'm fully back table. it's now nearly 4 months since russia invaded ukraine casualties amounting on both sides. russia is intensifying it's offensive to see strategic towns in eastern ukraine. the head of nato and britain's prime minister worn the conflict could last years. both have urged western government to keep sending military support to ukraine to hold russian advances. diplomatic negotiations appear to have stalled ukrainian, and russian delegates last held face to face talks in a sample in march there since held meetings by video link. but ukraine's president says they've made little progress. the key put a more mature in that even, you know, la, you know, such negotiations are currently at 0. everyone really wants to push us little by
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little toward some result that is definitely undesirable for us because we have not yet been asked to benefit for other parties that have their own interests or is that he is growing. people want some kind of results about our mom and we need a result of the russia says the talks have reached a dead end. the kremlin has accused ukraine of being inconsistent with its demands . here's what president vladimir putin said in april. the last time he addressed the negotiations directly against, cuz sort of the ukrainian side move away from its agreement and his stumble. now there's winds for security guarantees, one thing, and the settlement of relations with crimea vast, a pole, and a dumbass to be taken outside of those who live in. so we are back in a dead end situation. you know, the 2 people, while negotiations between moscow and keith began 4 days after russia invaded low level delegations from both sides, 1st met on ukraine's border with bella rules. they came together again in march for
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a 2nd and 3rd round, where they agreed to form some humanitarian corridors. the 1st high level contact took place in turkey during intense fighting and bombardment in the ukrainian port city of merrier pole. 2 hours of talks achieved snow breakthroughs. russia continued bombing on april the 7th. both sides announced stocks were entering a new phase, but despite many round fence, no solid ceasefire has been a great. ah, let's now bring in our guests in a liveth, demetrius shall go. european program director at the international renaissance foundation in brussels. theresa fallon, director of the center for russia, europe, asia, studies, and in moscow. pavel falcon, how're a defense and military analysts? welcome to your thank you for being with us on inside story demitra in ukraine. if i can start with you, they were hopeful signs in early may, but then negotiations ground to hold with each side accusing each other for the
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collapse are the conditions on the ground to day and the factors are they favorable to a resumption of demand. a diplomacy in your opinion, think no, they say it is being decided and the bundle and the bubble gum, or don't boss for the story. crane positional science. the live. utterly controversial, totally different. but it is aggressive or war of conquest. and they basically now open this as an official, something to say that their goal is to seize ukrainian land and to change your grains, boulders until this month of pregnancy or, and the whole grain, of course it's so defense. so absolutely, there's kind of little ground for compromise here. so when you grant, it's totally different, goal rebel that will be previously context finance. nice health on
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february. so i think now it will be decided than the battle until there's some developments there will not see. i think any or assumption of meaningful assumption of meaningful gimme in what frame of mind are the ukrainians right now, the russians have been progressing in the east even, you know, if, if slowly do the ukrainian still believe that they can win that with more western powers and ammunition that they can turn the tide. yes, yes, sherman ukraine, that is all it is here is there and ukrainian fighting. and the more absolute citizen just that we need to fight, we need to defend lamps. of course that was expectation probably that that will take less time. it will be like not this long war operation, but the by all science are there that it will take longer than expected. i think
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expected by everyone, including by rations as well. ok let's because if you from russia with patio, what's the mood like in moscow puddle? is there any appetite in moscow to return to negotiating table? well, the official russian position is the brushes ready to dark. oh, but the brilliance they'll not want till and they don't they know russian or position. they know what they should accept. they are not ready. duke said, then that means the, well, it's learned going could be a who both sides agree to disagree. agree do are logged out on the battlefield, the good old way. and there of course, yes, the positions of the 2 sides have been miles apart or they will be marked. have been miles apart from basically the very beginning us and the moscow in moscow. actually, the war is not felt at all, it's very kind of peaceful said the and the general bob worked kind of most with
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tends to make it act as if there is no wars or this is the far south happening somewhere in the far off land. there's reports, of course, about officials that official about the war happening about rush or the success of russian and at so called our troops from the done bus, small republics, and than been battering the ukrainians. kind of grinding them into po. but the, this is going, the russian operation is going to an end and success, but no one knows when, and this is basically more or less accepted by the russian. but what about the sanction russian? but what about the sanctions paddle the sanctions in the fact that russia is isolated? is that not not resonating with people? ah, yes, of course, that's well known that rushes are actually isolated. doe course. again, the official line is that an arab nations urban and china name there and latin america,
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africa nurse or more was frank new. it's the west that this against us. but this sort of kind of has a may actually help to of the authorities to rally the a large portion of the bub wake around on the ground. one of that we are surrounded by our attack by a very powerful enemies. and we sure that together in support of the, with the effort of the brown kremlin, than the president. and are there things going to be ok? ok, let's bring teresa into a conversation. not teresa worrying sides come to talks when there's a stalemate in a conflict. oh, when one side has one, do you feel that we are at a point in this war in ukraine where both sides could be ready to talk again? it seems that that's a bit premature at this point. i think that zalinski present zalinski has made it quite clear that he wouldn't be able to give up territory. although he has said that he wants to continue dialogue and negotiations with russia. the war has turned
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on such so there have been so many debts on both sides. the idea of negotiations before we're kind of, you have to give up some territory to, to russia. so i think that this was one of the deal breakers. and i think that as long as it continues on as it grinds on, as we've heard the head of gentle to bert nato, the analysis is that this will grind on for quite a long time. the key question now is, will europe able to remain unified? because we see it increasing inflation, high energy prices and energy and food are, are deeply connected. so when you have high energy prices, you will also have high food prices in addition to the blockade of food leaving ukraine that's being stopped. so we're seeing a huge issue maybe raso thinks that they can play this for what it's worth and see you're divided nevertheless, saw france, italy and germany go to get by train and they have announced that you can, will be
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a candidate country for you membership. how long that will take remains to be seen, but that's kind of a vote of confidence and a port ukraine. indeed, nato secretary general teresa has said that, you know, ukraine will require long term military support. and indeed, the ukrainians are pretty much dependent on, on decision and support from washington, paris to european union to get a sense that this support is now waning, as the war drags on. and that it could, they could be some lead up in supporting ukraine, the because of these divisions that you spoke about within european countries. i know you can is worried about fatigue, perhaps in europe. you see that the u. s. is the biggest supplier right now of equipment material. so germany has been dragging their feet. they've been making promises and not delivery. and this is a worrisome message. also, france, hon crone has sent mixed messages about ukraine, saying that we cannot humiliate russell's in this really when tongue really in
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europe. nevertheless, france has been sending so weaponry. it's kind of not reported so loudly. but i think that there is a real division growing in europe. we see the central eastern european member states have a lot more empathy for and support for ukraine because of their past history. and we see other countries trying to make calculations in regard to energy and inflation it have to get reelected. so i think putin has played a very dangerous game here because know his biggest client, which is europe. he earns 252300 1000000 a year in energy payments from europe. he has now decided to recklessly put that on the line in order by turning off the top to many countries in europe. they are never going to go back to such high dependency on russian energy and other countries like china will not pick up the slack they might pick up a little bit of it. but china is very clever about diversified. they will not allow
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russia to do the same thing to them that they're doing to europe. so i think that putin has really put himself in a, in a corner. and he's, it's in my view, almost total war. he doesn't care anymore. he loses these markets. demitra. teresa alluded to the condition some of the conditions and the non negotiating position of ukraine when it comes for an example to its territorial integrity. but do you think they could be some movement on some of these red lines if this war drags on and ukraine has to, to give up something, what would they be willing to give up? i don't know really. i mean, the photo integrity is really long. for sure, and whatever the future disagreement would be with have all that i had experience of having a demo with russia and to be including for instance, the so called me it's going to remains broker and buy germany and france in 2014
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problem 15 and we have seen that, so basically russia howard, basically those agreements, those agreements basically provided some form of settlement in the way that ukraine would give some sort of governance provisions for those land. so this, at the time in the brain and the while, the russia will withdrew its forces from, from there, but never with forces from the actually they used all the change to the fact, okay, by the fact the annex that those, that at that is, and now they use those to father ukraine and actually to also use even manpower mobilized from some of those that are actually in our service on the russian army. and basically used as a kind of flesh or the russian army. and so you're bringing forces, right?
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so from that perspective, from this experience, so we understand that we never accept any sort of deal implying refusal from on let's try what, what other things going to be there? what could be negotiated? i mean, i don't know, maybe there might be some negotiations about arrangements, particular things about i know some security confidence building measures and so on. but i mean it's, it's kind of now it's the collation because we really don't know the parameters, the keeper, and there are some of the few, right? diplomatic resolution of the public. because it really depends on the case guarantee, a thing which is where the fire will be there. what, what, what conditions will be what, what basically who will win will win this? let me bring in pavel to talk about this, what pavel could be the negotiation negotiated rather as far as rush is concerned
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in previous negotiations, russia insisted about maintaining control over large parts of ukraine. is that still the case today? what would they be willing to negotiate? at this point i walked onto moscow demand key demand is dead or any kind of government or future government than keyed of will recognize crimea as sour in russian territory. irvin and those as so that sanctions can be removed and also recognised the independence of the east is small and done. boss republic service. russia has oh, reggie recognized and then a baby. they could be some kind of negotiations about other territories and as the periscope west and her son. oh boy, that russia has since occupied. that may be also could go somewhere, but maybe that's negotiable. i dunno ah, but it's understood also that ukraine and government right now is not ready to talk
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. take those conditions. a cell that are the brush right now. the russian strategy is to grind. the ukrainian mila tree grind their morale it serve at the pitched battle in the thong bus right now. it's very similar to the bird, the as the see these, the storming of and siege of her than by the germans of 1916 when they didn't have enough forces. they'll get, have her no oh, out of offensive on the west, and from the concentrated on one fortress of their bird, been using their so far power superiority to queue as much french as possible, and break the morale of the french army. and right now, russia's branch trying to do more with the same, of course, in the very different level of usage of power and men. but they're there at the pantry ukrainians. they're suffering their military heavy casualties that can
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affect around. and if a green morale begins to snap, then most when we're yearly brain would be ready to take the russian conditions. okay, to reset, right now we are in a point where neither side, ab wants to give up anything. so what is it going to take in your view to end the stalemate? i think we also have to zoom back a bit of the bigger geo political questions. here we see the un security council to members of them of the security council supporting this war. so it's a question of sovereignty. we know that beijing is watching what happens here very, very closely, and they're making their own calculus regards to taiwan. so these issues of sovereignty, i think her key will the europeans just sit back like they did in 2014 after crimea . this is a much bigger issue. so i think that those who say, well, ask whether europe, in support for ukraine, long time european support for ukraine is justified. well, as i mentioned,
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there are some divisions within europe on that. there will be a meeting coming week of the council, which they will discuss this further on. the american side is quite interesting because i understand that there is less discussion between moscow in washington d. c. and there was at the time of the cuban missile crisis, and i think that's occurring message right there. and the back channel reportedly is dr. henry kissinger, who is actually 99 years old. so he had counsel that you crank up some territories . i think that that didn't fly very well, and i think that over the longer term, many analysts in washington d. c, are concerned that the u. s. is taking the eye off the ball in regard to china. they're worried about getting bogged down in a very, very long drawn out affair here in ukraine. alternatively, some see it as a way to weaken russia or the longer term. right. so they're very different viewpoints on this. and russia is becoming more and more isolated in their economy
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is really going to suffer. theresa some experts have suggested that we could end up with a scenario like the one on the korean peninsula where ukraine is divided into 2 parts without a formal treaty. and that such a division would allow the western allied part of ukraine to prosper in the same way that south korea. hi steve, do you see this at all? well, my personal opinion would be that that would send a rather negative message ross a does definitely once it's kind of a buffer zone, but the ukrainians have made such a huge sacrifice in blood, sweat, and tears. to paraphrase turtle, would that be really the right thing? to do at this stage, i think it's too early to tell how the negotiations will take place. i think that is untenable for zalinski to give up any territory. that is an interesting idea. but as we see that there's a great deal of instability on the korean peninsula with north korea and nuclear weapons. and let's remember that ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. and that
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all these countries, under the budapest memorandum pledged to support them and guarantee their sovereignty in that really hasn't held water so that since also a dangerous message to iran and north korea. all right, dmitri, your thoughts about this, some of the possible scenarios that have been put out there, like, you know, ukraine ending up in a situation like the one on the korean peninsula. and you know, where do you see things heading and what would be the minimum acceptable agreement for ukraine? well, this korean formula might be one over the scenario. so of course, just let's not forget that with with the, i mean, unlike in degree, i'm ace, we don't really to korea, to ukraine's ident, charlotte basically bring an arm in the russian army. so if we will have to cease
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fire agreement will be on the line there, then it will be not between some ukraine and the other one ukraine, but it will be bit ukraine and rational forces and it's a key difference one. and 2nd is the question, will how to implement this is fire. it's also a big question because again, with our own experience of off uminski since 201415. where was the fire was number one of those agreements, number one issue, but it was never implemented. and so it was always related almost every day by a russian. and that's kind of that's, that's the question how, how it can be enforced if it is important by international peacekeeping or says whether, whether there was whether there is any international peacekeeping force already to
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come in for such inspire. so it's very complicated. be sure, i think so, probably it might be one of the scenarios, right? just on your phone, say are various scenarios out there about how this could end. do you think this could and through diplomacy and if so how and when a war horse it will end i'm a somehow or through the boma. see. but before that there's going to be a lot of fighting and no other bloodshed of the summer campaign has just basically began. and it will last maybe at least till this mid september, or maybe till october, when the autumn rains turned turned, they saw until the last see of dirt, the russ booted sir, and the fighting is going to will, if not end, it's going to waste a become more over positions will be more stable and it's clear that the ukrainians hoped that in august september they could turn the tables and have
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a strategic initiative and maybe go against the russians in advance of the russians . believe that they have the capability to grind down the ukrainians. so that's will be decided actually the battlefield full has the initiative who has the upper hand. and then that will be translated somehow into a negotiating a settlement, maybe by a new year maybe next year. all right, teresa, i'll give you the last word. once we get to a point where the war is settled or resolved, what will be the future relationship of all these countries that have supported ukraine with russia. once in a very intricate tapestry of interest, and i think that europe, especially poland, has really risen to this challenge. they have been such a huge advocate for ukraine. so the fact that ukraine will be attending the country will help give them the goal of reform. and give the people some hope more morale
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boost remains to be seen if they will join the you. but this actually provides some, a road map to the future. politically. i wonder if that will really happen, but i do hope that this will help them to reform and prevent corruption. but also we have to see that as puzzle mentioned. you gave the example of going back to world war one. the peace in europe is over. we can take any of these things for granted any longer. and we see the words here in march of both russia and china. and these are huge questions for us and perhaps address rehearsal for what we're going to see in in asia. so i think that your pass is state united and strong and it's an up or down for the long haul. and in regards to energy prices and the winter, that's going to be coming. we see that moscow has cut off energy and that's the traditional period in the summer is to fill up the storage facility. so i suggest everybody start that in some sweaters. so thank you. ok, thank you very much for
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a very interesting discussion. denito show that theresa fallon and paddle falcon howard and thank you for watching. you can watch this program again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha. inside story, you can of course, also join the conversation on twitter handle. is that a j inside story from me fully back to boy and a whole team here in doha. thanks for watching bye for now. ah, what does that they've been doing with the money that it's boring? we bring you the stories and developments that are rapidly changing the world. we live in argentina. congress is debating and bill thinking to raise millions of dollars from the super rich poor families. hit hard by counting the cost on al jazeera, an intelligent social and playful. this vulnerable species have been cold in the
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wild, sold online, and smuggled illegally by criminal syndicates from southeast asia. one of the main markets is japan. in recent years, a new phenomenon has been sweeping through this concrete jungle animal cafes, by customers, by a cover charge to sit in the cafe and pets, a number of cute, domestic animals. but his businesses compete for customers. this being a disturbing shift to ever more exotic species, we want to find out more about how offers have been taken from the wild and sol, justina gar, a market is a spooling hops, the animal trade a plethora of exotic species. seat tiny metal cages. distressed and sweltering under the hot sun, american people have finally spoken,
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america is isolate when america is on balance, the world becomes more dangerous. the world is looking at us with a mixture of sadness and pity. with the election behind us will the republican party dump truck with your weak he take on us politics and society? that's the bottom line lu. you want to go to 0 with me. the whole rahman in doha reminder of our top new story . tens of thousands of demonstrators that brussels are protesting against the rising cost of living. it's the latest and biggest action planned by unions. they've been demanding better pay working conditions and more investment in public sector. the strike has caused brussels airport to cancel all outbound flight. sebastian has more from the belgian capital.

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