turn with child re, i'll jazeera mo, up bangladesh, old primary and secondary schools in bay. jane will resume in person classes from monday as cave in 1900 cases in the city continue to fall. can the gardens will be allowed to reopen from next month's chinese. capital shut schools in early may to stop the spread of the convent. shanghai has reported no new cobit 19 infections. the 1st time, 2 months. it's locked down, was lifted in early june. hong kong has turn the switch all night for a special light show marking 25 years in the territories hand over to china. culminates with a celebration on july, the 1st in the hand over from british rule, beijing agreed to a high degree of autonomy for 50 years. but it since imposed a sweeping national security law. cracking down on pro democracy, protested, and politicians. ah,

so this is out there, these are the top stories and abortion clinics have begun. closing the united states vis a day off, the supreme court overturned the decades old ruling, allowing women the right to abortion people across the country to be protesting against us. president joe biden assigned a significant gun control lourdes. the 1st legislation of its kind in 3 decades biden says the bi partisan built doesn't do everything he wanted. he says it will save lives. russia has seized complete control of the east and the crating city of through the net scuff, 2 weeks of intense fighting. it's a biggest set back for ukraine since the fall of merrier pole in may. the ukranian president says the war is becoming tougher to handle emotionally, but he's valid to win back old territory. last to russia, all of us hit this 7 the next lynette lou hands and we all get them back every

week. we go to care some other single day. we forget about johnson and mario. all other cities of ukraine, which are temporarily occupied, will be only ukraine in again. human rights groups are calling for an investigation into the deaths of 23 migrant software. attempted to cross from morocco into the spanish enclave of melia morocco, monitors, se injured migrants were left without help for hours, which increase the number of italy. spain has blamed human traffic is or the death cargo planes loaded with aid have been lined in africa as don, bringing vital supplies. after wednesday's devastating quake taliban is appealing for more international help people in a particular province, which was the hardest hit, a desperate for food for shelter and for drinking water. ecuador president has ended a state of emergency conceding to one of the key demands of protests to super duty 2 weeks. if

a nation wide strike where my lasso is under added pressure off the opposition court for no confidence vote in parliament on saturday. they blame him for the serious political crisis, protest as a demanding cuts to few food and fuel lines got more news coming up after we go to counting the cost or for i will re weigh if i choose

hello. i'm petty navigator. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. central banks take decisive action and increase interest rates to try and bring store and consumer prices under control. we ask what more needs to be done? also this week, we take a look at what's in store for the global ag ation industry after it was plunged into a financial crisis during the pandemic. and this year is our economy for him. so the movers and shakers descend on del, how the top of the agenda, the global economic recovery. plus we count the cost of protection, hundreds of thousands of loans on businesses as rising sea level threaten communities in the u. k. ah, the cost of living keep sliding higher and now the central banks have sprung into action. the u. s. federal reserve,

the bank of england and swiss national bank all increase their key interest rates, and the european central bank has indicated it will move in a similar direction in july targeting inflation is the central banks main goal and it helps to maintain price stability, but it's not been working, we've seen protest around the world over the higher cost of food and services in the past week. a little in nation can be a good thing if everyone salary rises at the same pace as prices, but they haven't been. so let's look at why inflation has been going up around the world. recently. they're all prices which are slumped at the start of the pan demik . but demand has rocketed since the war and ukraine has effected this to brent crude had an 8 year high. and of course, petrol is more expensive. the cost of everyday item has risen since 2020. many people had more disposable income to spend on household goods during locked downs, firms of struggle to keep up with demand. and let's not forget the us china trade

war, which drove up tariffs. there are shipping firms which have been on busier because of the surge, and as a result, retailers have to pay more to get those items into the shops. that cost has been passed on to consumers. millions, quit the workforce or changed jobs as a result of the pandemic and some sectors increased wages to attract new stuff. again, that's driven up prices. severe storms and droughts, hurt harvests around the world. the war in ukraine has seen its grain, harvest and exports affected. plus governments have been ending support to businesses impacted by the pandemic. subsequent tax rises have contributed to the cost of living squeeze felt by many will turning out from london is david coker who's a senior lecturer and finance at the university of west minister. welcome to al jazeera, so thanks so much for your time. so we were covering there the, some of the main drivers behind the rising costs of inflation and central banks, as we've been saying, have increased key interest rates to try and keep that inflation down somewhat more

can central banks and governments do or during thank you so much for having me today. the central banks are really in a, a tough spot. inflation globally is surging. it's not all supply side or as we're led to believe. and the only weavers they really have at least talking about the said, are the balance sheet as well as interest rates. those are the 2 broad leavers that the federal can can pull. and they're really in a rush position. because inflation surging, the rising, increasing interest rates very sharply to try to get control of it. they ideally would like to do it without causing a recession. but their track record is very poor there. and we also have to keep in mind that the consumer is getting the message we saw the consumer confidence in the states fall to a record low of this month. the dropped 14 percent in one month and it's down 41

percent from a year ago. so the consumers increasingly worried because of these hawkish meshes units, and actually actions from the southern center or bank. so really all they can do is just bring on a recession, right? let's drill down into some of the reasons why inflation is so high and we were mentioning earlier on that a part of this can be as a result of the us china trade war. do you agree with that? how much of a driver is that issue? and if the u. s. actually removed harris on chinese goods, do you think that could help in some way? no, no, i don't. i don't agree it's, it's totally, we'd like to come back to that, but we'll, i'll talk about this point, but i don't agree. it's totally because of the us china trade, we're no, not totally because be one of the reasons is not oh, sure. it's a contributor, but it's difficult to quantify exactly what a for terrorists were levied. chinese export definitely were a major, deflationary force that we enjoyed for 15 years. perhaps. now removing the terrorists are definitely lower the cost, imports into the states. that's good,

but we have to keep in mind and this is something the western media misses. sometimes the chinese economy has been restructuring very rapidly, and china is going to transition to what we call a high income country sometime in late 2023. in many ways, this puts china on a par with the u. s. and other western democracies. it's not the low income nation . it was perhaps 5 years ago, heavily reliant upon export. ok. and what about the u. k? i mean, you're speaking to us from london and, and as you know, of course, the bank of england increase their base rate for the 5th time in a row last week to 1.25 percent. but inflation has had another 40 year high and may reaching 9 point one percent. it's pretty astounding. how much higher do you think it could go? oh, i can't talk detail about the, about the, the u. k. but i can look at the states. i've done a lot of research in that area. all right, if we look at the last period of high inflation america, one thing we have to understand is that inflation is sticky. and once it's established, it's tough to get rid of. so inflation in the states at

a high or low 14.6 percent march $980.00. the fed started sharply increase in interest rates to get ahead of it to try to bring it down. they brought interest rates up to 19 point one percent by june, 1981. and in spite of these higher interest rates, inflation didn't drop down below 3 percent until june, 983 are roughly 3 years from the peak of inflation. spell my feeling is we're going to have to see interest rates rise above inflation, not for a long time, but rise above it. and we like we will see rates approach inflation. at some point . do you think that the mortgage rate raises in the u. s. is something to be concerned about. so why? oh, okay, i should reveal the saying, i'm active property of the property business. i do have assets in states as well as the u. k. all right. i think it's a. yeah, i think it's a good thing. what's happening both in the u. s. and you can machine, the sharp increases in house prices. totally stunning. and just for some

perspective in america, i took a look at the median house price and the median wage. if, if we express it in racial form, we can learn a lot about the scale of the bubble here. some context in queue for 2021. the medium house price divided by the median wage. that ratio was a 160 per cent houses really, really wildly over value compared to wages for context. if you look at q $12006.00, that same ratio was a 141 percent. and we all know what happened in 2007, a huge property collapse. it's coming again, doreen of the markets already slowing down. j. p. morgan announced plans to lay off a reassign, about a 1000 staff in their mortgage business. we seen other mortgage lenders doing the same. they're doing this in response to their customer demand. it's it's collapsing . we're also seen some other signs. if we look at the number of properties listed for sale, it's growing. and keep in mind that just 3 to 6 months ago,

the market was so red hot, a large number of properties were sold without even being listed. these are significant changes. i. i welcome them because they can take some cross off the market. bring holds down to a point where the average american, or even the average of british worker could, could afford the right. now it's very tough. if you can just give me your outlook or sort of the best and worst case scenario for the u. s. in europe going forward. oh boy, i'm american. so naturally optimistic on with the history of, i'll just say the best case is a short, sharp recession of the harder and deeper and the shorter the best recessions eliminate excess capacity recessions. as we just discussed, a reduce demand and all this would be welcome in this economy. now, the worst case, and i really hope we don't see this is stagflation. now, stagflation, a definition is above average unemployment, in

a macro environment of above average inflation. stagflation is much, much worse than a, even the most harsh recession. we haven't seen stagflation in the u. s. since mid 7 . these 2 are early eighties. and during that time, the misery index. and again, this is def, i wrote an article, but this is defined as the sum of unemployment and inflation sort. well, it's going to happen a genderin, because we're going to start to see unemployment tipped up. inflation is already fairly high. the misery index will soon be rising. alright, i did want to end on a positive note with you, but i for exactly who we're going to have to leave it there. we run out of time david coker, we really appreciate your time. thank you. so much taker, thanks a gender in the cat are economic forum to place and our hi this week major business leaders and heads of state met to discuss a road map to a global economic recovery. one of the topics was the rising cost of energy as from alberta has more a deal that's taken years to finalize.

gotta energy is teaming up with giant gas companies to expand its production of liquefied natural gas, or l n g. that drive comes at a crucial moment for europe as it moves towards cutting natural gas imports from russia. and it's carter that is most likely to meet europe's gas demands. an opportunity that cements the tiny gulf nations role as a global energy player. if you look at what was going on, i thought we started in 2017 to embark on the largest ellen g expansion in the world. and we're going to be increasing our production from 707126. a 1000000 tons per annum by 2026, which will help greatly the requirement of gas and underwood. rush as invasion of ukraine has shaken, and as you markers, prices are rising and energy ex waters are capitalizing on growing demands.

namibia has recently announced major oil discoveries that will double the countries did it be by 2040. but it's minutes of energy remains confident. the new fines won't stop investments in renewables. africa as a continental probability continued less than 2 percent of the emission. in any case and for namibia we are now actually in a very good position. here we are leveraging our resources, which is possible for resources. and as the same time, we're going to produce hydrogen that can actually help the global dig up on ice. here in doha leaders, ceos and economists discussed ways to combat poverty, reduce carbon emissions, and maintain economic growth of the global economic outlook seems somber. inflation

is rising prompting governments to increase interest rates, but the path to achieving any soft landing may be longer than initially thought. a slowdown is difficult because you lose a job or slow down. it's difficult because your business has less revenues or you have less orders a year, less activity have less customers. if at the same time of having less it revenues for your company, your casseroles, arising that has implications for unemployment. that has implications for a government revenues. the ability for governments to, to then reinvest back into the economies. food prices are also continuing to rise. hundreds of millions of people could find themselves unable to pay for staples such as bread, meat and vegetables. 2022 is the year many hoped, would end the fall off of the coven 19 pandemic. and that emotion a global economic recovery. then came the warning ukraine,

which has led to an increase in energy prices and a shortage of grain supplies. all these factors along with high inflation, unlikely to store the can non growth and be evil lead to a prolonged recession. hashem abala for al jazeera county and the call the head of global ation body. i says he's confident the industry will return to profitability in 2023. be global. pandemic plunge the global ation industry into what's worst financial crisis in its history. losses are estimated at more than $200000000000.00 over 2 years. during that time, the air transport action group reports that more than 2000000 jobs were touch. and now there's a scramble to hire tens of thousands of employees. but security screenings are causing delays. shortages have lots of flight cancellation, especially in europe, despite the high number of the people wanting to travel. and as we mentioned earlier, the war and ukraine has seen fuel prices double leading to

a roughly 30 percent hike in flight prices come in and all of the as the vice president of i also for the middle east and north africa. he thinks there are many reasons to be hopeful, just looking at how well the industry performed this year. the thought of this year, even with a hiccup like the, i'm a chrome and the last year. the resilience of the airline, how nimble they had, just each airline adjusts its capacity and what it needs. you can see the numbers just grow month over month looking at their plans down the road even with like the rising price of oil and stuff like that. we're still looking very optimistic. yes, airlines are smart enough to not put all its capacity back into the market so, so there's still 2017 percent of that capacity not being used. and of course, are reduces a lot of the operational costs or the fixed costs in some cases. so, so they are managing their resources more carefully achieving the profit. but don't

forget, this is their achieving a profit that does not mean they're profitable. achieving a profit, but they have 2 years of losses to, to, to recap, i think most of their life specifically in this region calculated their manpower acquirements and their resources very carefully and accurately from what i can see . and i think the demonstration of how they restart that again, and they restarted the bank at a faster rate than anybody expected. and yet without the problems that we're facing in europe and new cuts our air, we see about it back at a told us his outlook is positive. i am settling optimistic that that things to continue for the foreseeable future. i also don't think the price will stay at this level forever. and there is a shortage of capacity because badlands cannot fly all that is to show the adjustment power. pilots. by the fortunately that is not the case

with us. we also spoke toward brady, he's the president down chief executive of swift support the global education services company. and he talked us through the magnitude of some of the tests that the industry has faced. government acted unilaterally in this very difficult pandemic. and they didn't coordinate or consult with the asian industry, whether it be i also i k o. so they effectively to ga vh industry. and then to expect the industry to literally restart from a very low level to factor effect re near 2019 levels is a very big challenge for everyone with a long and well populated coastline. the u. k is a serious risk from climate change flooding and storm damage could make many areas uninhabitable by 2015, the government is planning to spend $7000000000.00 to protect the coast. but

experts say hard decisions are needed about which areas are saved and which are surrendered to the c, jonah hall reports from sidmouth and devon. this is sidmouth on the devon coast. a georgian town that lost a 100 meters of shoreline in a century. a rate that's now close to double in places on its east beach. the cliffs have been crumbling for years. where once there was climate denial, there is now an unavoidable reality. as we watched another section fell into the sea. a certain climate change now has to change people's perception in the last couple years. i think there's a recognition that there's a tremendous danger from climate change. coastal defense is already in place. protect the towns problem out, but they've affected the natural title drift, making things worse for the nearby clips. down here at the water line,

you can clearly see the forces of nature weighing on this landscape down one side. this river runoff made heavier by more frequent storm activity, up above the cliffs, heavy rainfall that saturate the soil from below the waves lapping all the way pretty much up to the base of the cliffs, their own beach protections washed away. it's a 3 pronged assault, making this world heritage site and others like it all the way up and down the drastic coast. vulnerable, fragile, prone to collapse. the problem is people live up here, some in large houses with majestic c views and fast receding from lawns. it is worrying, but i assume with the my age is not going to be a physical problem to myself. but the further down the road you get oversleep is the worry will get larger. and there are gardens that are literally falling into the sea down. absolutely. and at some stage they've got to do something to protect

the town. a 2020 report by the committee on climate change found that 1200000 homes in the u. k are at high risk of flooding, and a 100000 more will succumb to coastal erosion in decades to come. there's increased funding for protection but not everywhere can receive it. and that means hard choices lie ahead. basically telling those people who lives there. but you will not be will no longer be able to live here in the next 203040 years, you'll have to abandon your house because we can no longer afford to, to protect you. now, those are really, really tough decisions. and they, they, those sorts of decisions will, will increasingly be necessary in the future homeowner's overlooking east beach, a clinging on her. now there are plans being worked out by the local council for a protective barrier to be placed in the c. it's a race to hold back the rising tide. jonah haul al jazeera sidmouth.

joining us from london, a 20th sermon sky, who's the managing director of climate and sustainability at the global insurance giant marsh mclennan. she's also a member of the independent adoption committee that advises the u. k. government on climate risks. welcome to al jazeera talk us through the current flood risk in the u. k. and what impact that could have? hello, thank you very much for inviting me. flooding is the largest climate risk that the you case pay thing and we see that already in terms of the impact on community and businesses. but going forward these trends i expected to increase and that extent to flooding from coastal floods from river fluffs, but also rainfall rainfall event. it's free for the not yet. and so what are the socio economic rocking ramifications of such flooding?

well, that right is already the most costly risks today, and there are estimates from the government that they can make damage to business side will actually need $1000000000.00 paid by 2050. so that gives us a change, but there are other implications and, and our research here at mass mclennan looked at where for example, infrastructure is located and where assets are being built. and this is a really important story because we see that actually quite a large number of new homes in the, in the u. k. are built in area threatened by flooding, particularly low income households, which are then disproportionate the, at risk. okay, here's the thing, i mean, how would you, what would your advice be on how to get countries to start to rethink their approach to flood risk and what strategies do they need to put in place?

well, i mean, 1st of all, i think we really need to be up front and say, climate change is a threat, multiply and it will amplify existing vulnerabilities. taking a look at supply chain transport board type, food security, all be all going to be impacted by a lot. so we really need to get that message out that i do not just the question of getting your feet wet because you can be impacted lapse without b direct. he physically flooded. okay, so that opens up also a lot of oppertunity to then work to trust those supply chains. work across communities in terms of enhancing for protection, changing particularly production processes and ultimately often moving away from out of palms way and which country. i mean, is it possible to say what country is the best prepared or,

and also who is the worst prepared at this point? while our research says that all major industrial countries actually has a significant blacklist problem. but also starting to invest in rest brazilian. and, but it's, it's really important that what we're trying to do is basically playing almost catch shop because i'm, when we look at climate change, i mean, we already the climate change the, we're living already with climate. and we, we know that even with emissions reduction where it can, you bring to degree warming scenario. i am our estimates so that the percentages people who are paid to the left with are expected to double from today's level. so that gives you a problem. and then yeah, it's down to 2 countries to take advance action and to manage that well once the

government or country rather, that seems to have made some progress on this. and correct me if i'm wrong here is the netherlands because expensive. billions of euro's every year, maintaining an upgrading it's defenses. can other countries learn from the netherlands model like them all these like the u. k, like other island nations who are where most at risk was certain that there is a lot that we can learn at the netherland are because of their, their exposure it's. it's a little 9 country where the coastline they have made flat bread management part of their national strategy for a long time. but the key question is, you know, at what point are we taking these measures and, and dimension of, of the nation. the key point there is to increase that capacity to, to act and to, and take this action now or right. we will leave it there. we thank you very much when you sermon ski for joining us,

one to and that's her. so for this week you can get in touch with us by tweeting me and daddy in a g and d use the hash tag a j c t c. when you do so, you can also drop us an email counting the cost that al jazeera dot net is our address. but there's more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash c t c. and that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links, an entire episodes for you to catch up on it for this edition of counting a cost. i'm danny and abigail from the whole team. thanks for joining us. the news on al jazeera blue criminal drug dealing shifted to places beyond the reach of the many people in the afghan government way involved in a doctorate. gorilla was in columbia and mexico, where the cartels have been responsible for

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