i think it's young residence behind the camera this to be don't often hear told by the people who let them lead moody would. this is your analogy. you out. what happens the in new york has implications all around the world. it's international perspective with the human touch zooming way in, and then pulling back out again on counting the cost g 7 leaders latest plans to squeeze rushes economy over the war and ukraine. we take a closer look at some of the financial patches they've made. boss, what's next for sri lanka, as it's economic crisis depends on the prompts one, dr. counting the cost on al jazeera. ah

hello, i'm sorry, i'm noisy nuns in a quick look at the main stories now and we begin in ukraine. rescue is have spent a day coming through rubble for survivors, off to russian missiles residential areas near the black see ports of odessa. at least 21 people were killed while they slapped, including children, ukraine's present redeemer. zalinski is accused. moscow targeting civilians in a deliberate act of terror. allan fisher reports now from keith. the attack came in the early hours of the morning. many people were embed, it was quick. it was devastating. yeah. and i'm story building partially destroyed . the rockets fired from russian aircraft, according to local authorities. pictures from the scene in odessa were quickly uploaded to social media phase one for so many people have taken shelter from possible attacks in the basement of buildings. but to carefully move the debris, trying to find one more person to save and the ukrainian parliament, they held a moment of silence for those killed in the attack, which also hit

a local recreation center in order for ukrainian mornings not to start so tragically as it started to day would miss alt strikes at bethesda in odessa region . 2 days morning started with a lot of victims. we want mornings of ukrainians to become as peaceful as the mornings of each european capital in the 21st century. ukrainian. the attack came just hours after russian president vladimir putin insisted his forces do not target civilian idiots, newport, but any. our army does not take any civilian infrastructure. we have every capability of knowing what is situated, and we're ukrainian general say the number of russian missile attacks has more than doubled in the past 2 weeks. and they believe they are using more soviet era muscles which are much less accurate. and that means more civilian areas may be hit, whether they are targeted or not. alan fischer al jazeera keith. well,

thousands of protest says have returned to the streets of sedans, capital, demanding, an anti military rule. a day after ease 9 people are killed. security forces, again fire t gas at damage site is chasing some down streets and alleys. on thursday more than a 150 people are arrested at the largest rally seen in months. hippa morgan has motion hot hill protest, so they're angry. following the death and injury sustained on thursdays protests, now the demonstrations on thursday has seen thousands of people on the streets of the capital city of hard to me, as well as the tensity of undermanned and the northern city of battery, as well as other states around the country protested, say they were an armed when they took to the streets to voice their anger against the military thing that they were expressing their desire to the military. how noble power to table in government and abandoned for dance politics and return to the barracks either these are the demands they've been making since the military took over power last october. now security forces use use here guys and live

ammunition disburse protesters at least 9 people were killed. more than $500.00 were injured, according to the medic group. central committee for denise. dr. is so, protested, said the, except for that they were met by a, by, by, with the security forces and the fact that they were injuries, and that they were dest, despite the fact that they were an armed and exercising their right to demonstrate and peacefully that has resulted in anger and that has seen people staging a 19 to 10 in front of the hospital where one of the protesters was pronounced that and several of other interpreter says were taken to the hospital. so since the early hours of the morning, protective, have been trying to make their way back to the presidential palace 2 boys, their anger against the military and once again to the military. but they don't want a military rule. but rather, once a civilian rule in china's president has declared his governance control of hong kong as success as might criticism that political and civic freedoms have been mostly erased under pages rule. she during pain has also presided over the swearing

in of hong kong, new leda during of rev visit to mark 25 years since the territory was handed over by the u. k. as was his 1st trip outside mainland china. since the corona virus pandemic began communist party officials ordered a harsh crack down on hong kong pro democracy protest that started in 2019. so those headlines, the bottom line with steve clemens is coming up next. the hi mc clements and i have a question. if you took a look at the world today which side is winning chaos or control? is our world becoming more stable, more fair, more peaceful, or forces taking a wrecking ball to all that and leaving crises as the new normal? let's get to the bottom line. ah,

if you're anxious about where the world is going, well, you're not alone. a deadly global pandemic blindsided humanity more than 2 years ago. and millions are dead in its wake. violent weather is on the rise around the world in addition to the level of the world's oceans, wreaking havoc and disc, locating people around the planet, and its technological future. as bill joy wants reported and feared on the cover of wired magazine 20 years ago. the rapid speed of technological advances in genetics and computing power and its derivatives like artificial intelligence are out running our ability to make sure they're used for good rather than bad. add onto that the rise of autocracies and old style russian invasions. well, it's not exactly lovey on rose, but our guest today sees the silver lining and the big crises of this moment and suggested what the world may need to revitalize the social contract of empathy and common purpose between nations is exactly this. a massive wakeup call in grammar

has just come out with a forward looking book, the power of crisis, how 3 threats and our response will change the world. he is the president and founder of eurasia group, a global research and consulting firm, based in new york. the focus is on the risks, facing businesses and governments. it's great to be with you today and congratulations on the new book, the power of crisis. i guess the only type and fast thing about this is i've read nearly everything you've ever written, and this is the most optimistic book. you're usually my cynic seeing things realistically and wide. i for our audience, you know, ian is the one who is really the champion of, of understanding in the world that there's no organizing force anymore. we have a g, 0 world, the headless ness. and i think what you're saying is that, you know, someone's gonna come out from outer space, that big, existential crises are going to hit us. and somehow order is going to come back. am i getting the right message? yes, so let's put it this way. i'm someone who really believes that geo politics

like economics have cyclical boom and bust cycles, right. i know we're probably heading into a recession right now. we've had them every 7 years since world war 2. we recognize that when they hit, we've got fiscal and monetary tools to respond. we generally try to avoid them, right? but they're also geo political cycles. and you political cycles occur because when you have a huge crisis, then coming out of that you create new institutions and architecture that reflects the state of the world, the balance of power that exists after the time. so world war 2 happens. we create the united nations, the i, m f, the world bank, the w t l. right? precisely because there was this massive disruption. we need new architecture reflect the way the world is going forward. okay, so for the last, since you've known me for the last 2025 years, we've been heading into a geopolitical recession. what i call a g 0 world,

where the balance of power is increasingly mis aligned with the institutions. and that's true both inside the united states and globally, and i've been writing all of these books that have described that the end of the free market, right? the state capitalist, china rise. and that means that the hybrid system, every nation for itself, the united states as you know, sort of the g one is no longer the global policeman. what happens as a consequence, even us versus them, that talks about the rise of populism, the disintegration of institutions inside a lot of democracies around the world, the growing in liberalism, of democracies. so now you start to see all of these global crises emerge. whether it's the pandemic or it's the russia invasion of ukraine and a new cold war, or, or whether it's global climate and the rise of disruptive technologies. and this book is the book that says ok, we're now in the depth of geopolitical reception, recession we know in a g 0. how do we,

what are we going to do to take advantage of these global crises that will allow us to get back towards a geopolitical boom cycle? and i don't describe it that way in the book because that's a little wonky. right? i mean, given the question you just asked the other, that's kind of why this is a much more hopeful book. it's a much more optimistic book. and if you remember from my dedication, the dedication says to a glass half full, that 1st half was tasty. and it's basically saying we're the ones that drank the 1st half of class. and so we want to get out of those were the ones that are going to have to do so. well, i guess my question to you is, you know, i know, i know this is just coming out, but how is this playing with people? do they think you're utopian? or is this a realist way of looking at how common responses actually happen? well, i mean, reagan was a movie guy, right. and i'm in, i'm, the fact is,

that is if you want to portray this as a movie, it would be like the very small c, independence day. aliens come down and everyone rallies around, you know, were able to defeat the the alias. what it isn't, is this movie that just came out a few weeks ago. don't look up where a comment is coming and we all basically ignore it until it's too late. and the world comes to an end. and, and the reason why i think that the response to this book has been much more positive even though so many people are running around with their hair on fire right now. is because we've actually seen in the last 2 months. i couldn't, didn't read my book. and it's obvious because he bade the biggest geopolitical error of judgement of any leader. since the soviet union, his collapse, he invaded ukraine for on with a couple 100000 troops. precisely because he believed that the west was incapable of responding of coming together, that nato was indeed brain dead and obsolete as micron and trump referred to it.

and my god was he wrong? let me the very end, irrespective of what you think about the united states and europe and china and the rest of the world. we can all agree that putin really badly misjudged this, because not only is the lensky still, they are running ukraine. yes, vastly more support than he did before. the fins and the swedes are about to join nato. the germans are spending twice as much on defense going forward. heck, even the democrats and republicans can agree that they hate well put more than they hate each other. we just had a pelosi go to key of and then a week later mcconnell goes to kiya with their debt, with the delegations. so, i mean, i think if you want to look at these other global crises, you can indeed see that if the crisis is big enough, even a seriously dysfunctional and divided government against act together, i've always wondered to myself, what kind of shock could happen to snap people back in and you kind of look at climate change as being really one of the leaders in that. and my response is i'm

not so sure that we've had climate change build up. we've seen the increase in violent weather. ah, we've seen concerns. we've seen fires in floods and rising ocean levels, but i'm not sure it i, i still think a lot of people are comfortable as a frog in the pot that's getting warmer and warmer. do you believe really that climate change is going to be something that you get a consensus of response on early enough to prevent the warming levels in to get to the targets that have been laid out in some of the global m. a climate deals a funny thing, steve, that that frog in the boiling pot and it gets slightly slightly hotter and eventually dice is a met. what actually happens is the water gets hot and the frog gets really uncomfortable and it jumps out of the fricken water. that's what actually happened, right. and that is what's actually and literally happening to the planet with climate change. 2030 years ago when it was mostly about hugging trees and save in

wales, an activist cared. but the rest of the world didn't do very much, especially because you're looking at the mall leaves and bangladesh. and you say, well, we lose those that's bad. but how much does that affect me? i'm not going to those places. yeah. but now that affects california. now that affects louisiana. now that affects your home in, in north carolina, as we just saw on the coast, you know, sort of a couple days ago now that it's affecting australia with the massive droughts and italy and germany with the massive was suddenly all the people in power r. c. we have to do something about this and, and the big difference in the last 1020 years is the entire world also agrees on the problem on the science that there's no more significant climate denial is and there's no more real disinformation, a $195.00 countries get together every year and they say with the into an intergovernmental panel on climate change. we've had 1.2 centigrade of climate

change already. it's anthropogenic, it's manmade. it's not coming from nature. and here are the implications. now everyone doesn't agree on how, how to respond and who should pay for. but agreement on the nature of the problem really matters. and even though the united states and china don't like each other, don't trust each other. the american see that the chinese are investing massively in solar and wind and electric vehicles and batteries and the supply chains and rare earths around the world to support that. and so suddenly in the united states, it's not just the tree huggers. it's people saying if we don't start focusing on a post carbon future, the chinese are going to dominate it. and the americans don't like that one bit. so this competition, but it's a virtuous competition and this is still much later than it needs to be. and this is a lot to play for a me, a 2.5 degree future. and a $1.00 degree future in terms of warming is a difference of trillions and trillions of dollars and,

and it will affect hundreds and hundreds of millions of wives. so we can't get complacent. there's a reason why the secretary general, the u. n. continues to talk about the urgency of having to do as much as humanly possible. but i mean, looking at this from a broad lens. the fact is that humanity is responding to this crisis. it's a goldilocks crisis. it's not a frog in a pot. it is not too big that we crawl into a ball and just wait for the comment to hit us, but not too small that we're complacent. any more, i think that's a very, very big deal and, you know, energy very well and you've suggested in the book, you know, some proactive things that can be done. a green marshal plan for the world is one of these interesting ideas that you put on the table that could begin to rationalize how we collectively respond to these crises. but while you put that on the table, we've seen the g political crisis of russia's invasion of ukraine, drive oil and energy and gas prices up. you've see the price of coal skyrocketing,

you've got nation scrambling around energy and how they'll be back stopped by allies. you've seen the by the ministration open up an oil and gas leases again that had been shut down. can me swim together? can we simultaneously respond? you know, by opening up the fossil fuel world again during this crisis, but also meet the goals that you're talking about of making major moves um on, on climate remediation. oh steve, i mean, as you know, they do swim together because much higher energy prices give you a lot greater impetus to move faster towards renewables. and to focus more on nuclear, which we see the americans doing the germans doing the japanese doing. they were gonna shut all the stuff down now to say, oh, we need this more and okay, some people think that nuclear is not renewable. it's not fossil fuels. it's not contributing the climate change. it really matters if ok, you focus more on efficiency. when energy prices are really high, if energy prices were really low for coal and oil and gas, then you'd be much more concerned about how long the transition is going to be in

about the fact that, wow, you know, maybe it's to the, i'm expensive to go to solar is too expensive to move your car to electric. now we're seeing that these things are becoming cheaper at scale and much more compelling. now, the green martial plan is really important because in this environment, what we've seen is over a 1000000000 indians in the last 2 months have been so heat stressed by a 120 degree fahrenheit weather in delhi just yesterday that they can't work outside after 10 am and so the indian government is, and they're dealing with rolling blackouts in the indian government saying look, that all of this is happening, not because of us, we're poor, it's happening because of you guys the put all this carbon in the atmosphere. so unless you're going to pay us to make a transition, you know what we're going to use a lot more coal. so it is absolutely true that for the poorest countries in the world, you know, american pollen policy makers can't just focus on the united states in its

production, but needs to focus on making this more equitable for the india's more equitable for the brazil's and not just yelling at them at cutting down the rain force, but being willing to help ease that transition because they can't afford it the way the americans can and the europeans can. so that, that's really the call to arms in that chapter of my book. here. another element of chaos in fear that i enjoyed reading in your book was your concern about autonomous drones about ai, about tak, that's kind of untethered to our needs and direction. and i been reading a lot about autonomous lethal weapon systems lately. the little like at a terminator and arnold schwartzenegger coming back with sky net but, but these things are real and we're really moving to a period where science fiction has become reality and many of the autonomous systems here. i, i like to know how you wrestle with that and tell our audience, if you wouldn't mind how you think we might in a collective way, begin to respond to some of visa potential threats in technology. well,

i'd like to be as optimistic as i am on climate. i'm not yet for one obvious reason, which is that we as humanity do not yet agree on what the problem is. i mean, we have an intergovernmental panel on climate change that meets every year and says, this is the state of the planet in terms of climate change. there is no intergovernmental panel on artificial intelligence, on the dangers of this information on where we are in terms of lethal autonomous weapons on where we are in terms of cyber offensive attacks and capabilities. you can't fix a problem that you don't agree on and identify the start, so you need to start there. and if my book does nothing else, i'm hoping that this will be a more strong nudge into that direction. something i've discussed the great length with the secretary general, the un we, we have strong agreement around that, but we need it from the governments and not just the government, steve, unlike issues of responding to the russian invasion of ukraine,

when you talk about lethal autonomous weapons and cyber weapons, it's not just the governments, the companies, the tech companies actually exert sovereignty, dominion over this space. and they're going to need to be actors, principal actors in any institutional architecture. you bill. so if you wanted to create the ability to identify these problems, then respond to them. it wouldn't just be getting a bunch of governments, it be getting a bunch of governments, but also some core american and chinese tech companies that are actually the most powerful actors in determining the diffusion of these technologies. i think that's where you have to start. and then from there you can start talking about what are the areas that you need to actually try to have in a public sector way containing proliferation and technologies, or managing the proliferation technology or criminalizing the proliferation of those technologies. as we have effectively for 75 years with nuclear weapons,

but it's a lot harder to do with these issues of, of cyber weapons and increasingly rogue states. and even organizations have capacity to do massive damage to our economies. and even our species. have you translated the book into chinese and sent it to seizing ping? ah, and also sent one of the white house because you lay out pretty clearly the fact that you see the united states and china on a collision course. they don't need to stay on there but, but things could get bad if and, and, and it's one of the precursors to getting some of these things. right. is that the united states and china have to realize at some level they need each other. i am less pessimistic about the us china relationship for 2 reasons. first is the extraordinary amount of economic interdependence that exists now and that despite the political and is to be each other up. every one in power understands the importance of that interdependence. we're not going to suddenly decouple ourselves

from china. they're not going to suddenly decouple themselves from our us. and furthermore, the crises that i write about this in this book, they may not create more trust between the us and china, but they act absolutely create more interdependence. and i think that's really important. and i also recognize that on the back of this crisis of russia invading ukraine for all of the chinese saying that their friends, without limits with putin 2 months later, we also recognize that their friends largely without benefits because the chinese government understands that they need to do much more business with the americans and europeans than they do with the russian economy. that is 110th their size. so this pragmatism, in the part of both of these governments that i think help ensure that we don't head into a cold war, which would make it so much harder to respond to any of these press one. i also hear you saying it and i, i, it's not said enough, is that deep coupling,

if you really go up because that's the word i hear all the time in washington is equivalent to a global depression, a massive collapse of quality of life in the united states probably the same in china, elsewhere in the world. i is that what you're, what, what i don't put words in your mouth, but when i hear decoupling, i say crazy but, but am i getting it wrong? oh no, you're absolutely right. it's just that the words are different from the reality. i mean people talk about the coupling and what they really, that mean is, well in areas of dual use for key national security issues, we shouldn't be allowing the chinese to buy advanced robotics companies. well, that seems fairly sense of oh wow way, which is basically owned by the chinese military. we may not want them to be providing chips in our smart grid or to have surveillance, you know, sort of into american data like i get that. but that's very different from say that we no longer want the chinese and americans to travel to each other's countries. we don't watch andes, tourism any more. i don't want to buy our treasury anymore. we don't want him to

buy real estate or come to our university. how many universities in america would go bankrupt if chinese students stop painful fray? but no, i believe me. i mean, when i look at the n b a, i look at disney, i look an american banks. i look at american consumers go in a wal mart and buying goods that are inexpensive. that the amount of interdependence between our 2 economies is massive. and i hear wars like friends shoring and friend sourcing, which says, oh, we want to make sure that all of our, you know, supply chain is with countries that we lie. those changes are at the margins, they're incremental. but you're not going to suddenly end globalization by saying those words, because most of the big corporations out there are global corporations. they want to be global corporations. they want access to global markets and china soon going to be the largest economy in the world. a large majority of most of the countries in the world trade more with china than the united states. they don't do that because they light china. they don't do that because they want to be authoritarian

. they do it because the chinese market is so important. so right, all do kind of get that even though we don't want to say we ask you finally i and i want to commend you for taking on the risk of trying to put ideas on the table because it leaves it open. people criticizing there, but some of them you, you suggested is, you know, a global covey response sharing plan, a global kovacs, a green martial plan, which we discussed a world data organization. these are interesting, concrete ideas. but one of things i know in is if you do see some leaders out there, willing to take that risk of trying to lead and putting ideas on the table share with our audience. some of the leaders in the world you admire. if you would look, i mean, i think around the world, i like what i see from the new japanese prime minister because shita and in terms of his willingness to try to integrate japan more into a leadership role multilaterally supporting rule of law. i. it's not the japanese usually are, you know, sort of responsible leaders domestically,

but they don't want to play very international role. i think that's been interesting also specifically in trying to improve the relationship with south korea, which has been broken for a while. but they're both allies in united states, and that's kind of dysfunctional. i've been impressed with that. i was enormously impressed with olaf shoals of who, you know, gave this and this huge speech. it was almost the equivalent of nixon go into china . the head of the social democratic party saying we cannot go ahead with nor extreme to we have to spend more on defense. we must be leaders of nato and the european union together. i thought that was a pretty big deal. so i like to see that i think there are a lot of leaders like that around the world. people who are leading with facts, leading with science, some are on the left, some are on the right, but they're important. i think the greek prime minister carrack, us meant to talk his leading a country that went through a depression of greater depth and breadth than the united states, went through a 100 years ago. and seeing the response to kobe. and the enormous redistribution

of wealth from wealthy countries to poor countries inside europe, as a martial plan for greece, and wanting to take advantage of that and euro skepticism increases so much lower today than it was 5 years ago. 10 years ago, 20 years ago. i think that's a big deal. and finally, i would focus on ursula vander line and on all of the european leaders in brussels, who are creating the most important super national institution of governance in the world today. not just in terms of regulating tech, but leaning into climate responding to cove it, i mean these are we need in a world this falling apart in terms of regulation and rules where rule of law seems weaker, where sort of democracy is, are becoming hybrid and becoming liberal, it's important to have people that stand up for rule of law, people stand up for human rights. people stand up for multi lateralism and the e. u is doing a good job with that. i think that that that helps the entire world. while folks,

this is an bremar at its most optimistic in bremar, president of the racial group editor at large time magazine, an author of the power of crisis, how 3 threats and our response will change the world. thanks so much for joining us . it's always a pleasant. so what's the bottom line? the world needs new ideas. no one disagrees, that chaos is unfolding and needs a real response. my guess today has 3 tangible solutions, a global kovak, response to the current and future pandemic, a global green marshal plan, and a world data organization. well, these aren't enough to turn around the cycle of bad news and fear of what lies ahead, but they are an attempt to build new foundations for human kind. where we as individuals become proactive about dealing with crises rather than just allowing ourselves to be victims of them. and that's the bottom line, ah

too often of con, astonished, portrayed through the prism of war. but there were many of canister thanks to the brave individuals who risk their lives to protect it from destruction . an extraordinary film archive spanning for decades reveals the forgotten truths of the country's modern history. the forbidden real part to the communist revolution on a j 0. talk to al jazeera, we ask you be more specific, how many folks are you asking for? and what kind of military equipment we listen, ask the people of cuba in the street. if there is a difference between donald trump and joe bite for them, it's exciting. we meet with global news makers and talk about the stories that matter on al jazeera. ah.