as this tournament unfolds over the coming days, we will play a key role. but organize is getting ready to host the middle east's. biggest ever school thing event next year. um for the cattle national teams, they get used to playing in front of expected home crowds. but we hoping to convince both the funds and themselves that they really are ready to take on the world as green in to places 300 years of danish colonization and international interest in the islands results. his grades, a younger generation emerging determines to and their future no matter that different meta rappa and his fiance, a student, and a politician as they tackle h l t. issues with that powerful foresee the fight for greenland, a witness documentary on al jazeera. ah,

hello, i'm adrian finnegan in dough. how about the summary of the news on al jazeera ukraine has asked turkey to detain. a russian flag ship that it says is loaded with 4 to half 1000 tons of stolen grain. keep says the grain was illegally exported from the occupied city of body answer. the ship is anchored bed turkeys, coast to port. russia has denied previous claims that its stealing grain from occupied ukrainian territories, said m costio lu report, so from his stumble, ukrainian prosecutor's office has, has told that they have written a letter to the turkish justice ministry on june 30 that they, that the ship left ukrainian ports, but however, so far there is no statement from the turkish authorities regarding this letter. because as far as we know, there is also a paperwork process that needs to be conducted in ukraine. because if

a prosecutors off is request that such a thing like seizing the ship and launching an investigation on the threshing ship that has that has over the arrived in the turkish ports. this not there needs to go through a queen and foreign ministry. and then this that there should come from ukrainian foreign ministry to turkish foreign ministry. and then there's a court process that needs to be completed to launch an investigation and to see such as ship. tell us konica is deputy economy minister of ukraine. he says, there's no question that russia has taken grain that doesn't belong to it. what is important is that it is actually steal the stolen grain because it will bond with power and consent of the owner. so that's the war is one thing and but the relation to the ownership of 4 of these grade is another thing. what the actually is doing is that the military officers, what they're doing, the student is great. and if they say that the rational grade they put the shadow

on legitimately to produce. so anything that is now offering by an option as it awesome, great and on the, on the world market and it is quite big volume of going to and can be treated, those may be stolen. so that's why this is even more important than just actual example. affect the trash a trying to make these grain markets, georgia markets. and i don't think that it is what they would of the of the world. what we want is to kevin normal operation all for going to market and black. she's important the region for whole grain markets for weed, for some firewall and other cultures. so that's why we're actually doing is look in our see board still in our grade, trying to impose it's real or non torque in other states. and this is just what they do and intentionally is creating a mess on this market and this is against the everyone. nearly 30 people are

missing a c else and industrial support ship sank off the coast of hong kong rescue services released this footage of crew members being pulled from the water. at least 3 people have been rescued. vote was caught in bad weather, brought on by typhoon chombo. protests is have stormed one of libya's rival parliaments in the city of to brooke and of hell, demonstrations and other major cities. people are angry about worsening living conditions or the years long political deadlock. the unrest comes after you and mediated talks ended without a breakthrough run out to say, but we, the youth came out today to demand the end of the transition period. we want to elections. this is the right, the libyan street people and the right of the youth. the street is the basis of legislation. enough transitions. we want legislative and presidential elections on thousands of people protesting in south korea's capital, so that amounting better working conditions and an increase in the minimum wage.

the rally was organized by south korea's biggest trade union and incident. thousands of people demonstrated in the capital come to me on friday, demanding an end to military rule. on thursday, 9, people were killed and dozens arrested in similar demonstrations. the you and human rights chief was cool for an independent investigation into the killings of those are the headlines that he's continues here on out to 0 after the bottom line, which is coming up next. i me. hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. if you took a look at the world today which side is winning chaos or control? is our world becoming more stable, more fair, more peaceful, or forces taking a wrecking ball to all that and leaving crises as the new normal? let's get to the bottom line. ah,

if you're anxious about where the world is going, well, you're not alone. a deadly global pandemic blindsided humanity more than 2 years ago. and millions are dead in its wake. violent weather is on the rise around the world in addition to the level of the world's oceans, wreaking havoc and disc, locating people around the planet, and its technological future. as bill joy once reported and feared on the cover of wired magazine 20 years ago, the rapid speed of technological advances in genetics and computing power and its derivatives like artificial intelligence are out running our ability to make sure they're used for good rather than bad. add onto that the rise of autocracies and old style russian invasions. well, it's not exactly lovey on rose. but our guest today sees the silver lining and the big crises of this moment and suggests that what the world may need to revitalize the social contract of empathy and common purpose between nations is exactly this. a massive wakeup call in bremar has just come out with a forward looking book,

the power of crisis, how 3 threats and our response will change the world. he is the president and founder of eurasia group, a global research and consulting firm, based in new york. the focus is on the risks, facing businesses and governments. it's great to be with you today and congratulations on the new book, the power of crisis, i guess, which i found fast thing about this is i've read new here. everything you've ever written, and this is the most optimistic book, you're usually my cynic seeing things realistically and wide eyed for our audience . you know, as the one who is really the champion of, of understanding in the world that there is no organizing force anymore. we have a g 0 world, the headless smith, and i think what you're saying is that, you know, someone's going to come out from outer space that big, existential crises are going to hit us. and somehow order is going to come back. am i getting the right message? yes. let's put this way. i'm someone who really believes that geo

politics like economics have cyclical boom and bust cycles, right. i know we're probably heading into a recession right now. we've had them every 7 years since world war 2. we recognize that when they hit, we've got fiscal and monetary tools to respond. we generally try to avoid them, right? but they're also geo political cycles. and you political cycles occur because when you have a huge crisis, then coming out of that you create new institutions and architecture that reflects the state of the world, the balance of power that exists after the time. so world war 2 happens. we create the united nations, the i, m f, the world bank, the w t. all right? precisely because there was this massive disruption. we need new architecture reflect the way the world is going forward. okay, so for the last, since you've known me for the last 2025 years, we've been heading into a geopolitical recession. what i call a g 0 world,

where the balance of power is increasingly mis aligned with the institutions. and that's true both inside the united states and globally, and i've been writing all of these books that have described that the end of the free market, right? the state capitalist, china rise. and that means that the hybrid system, every nation for itself, the united states as you know, sort of the g one is no longer the global policeman. what happens as a consequence, even us versus them, the talks about the rise of populism, the disintegration of institutions inside a lot of democracies around the world, the growing in liberalism, of democracies. so now you start to see all of these global crises emerge. whether it's the pandemic or it's the russia invasion of ukraine and a new cold war, or, or whether it's global climate and the rise of disruptive technologies. and this book is the book that says ok, we're now in the depth of geopolitical reception. recession, we know energy 0. how do we,

what are we going to do to take advantage of these global crises that will allow us to get back towards a geopolitical boom cycle. and i don't describe it that way in the book because that's a little wonky right? i mean, given the question you just asked the other, that's kind of why this is a much more hopeful book. it's a much more optimistic booking. if you remember from my dedication, the dedication says to a glass half full, that 1st half was tasty. and it's basically saying we're the ones that drank the 1st half of class. and so we want to get out of those were the ones that are going to have to do so. well, i guess my question to you is, you know, i know, i know this is just coming out, but how is this playing with people? do they think you're utopian? or is this a realist way of looking at how common responses actually happen? well, i mean, reagan was a movie guy. right. and i'm in. the fact is,

that is if you wanted to portray this as a movie, it would be like the very small c, independence day. aliens come down and everyone rallies around, you know, were able to defeat the the alias. what it isn't, is this movie that just came out a few weeks ago. don't look up where a comment is coming and we all basically ignore it until it's too late. and the world comes to an end. and, and the reason why i think that the response to this book has been much more positive even though so many people are running around with their hair on fire right now. is because we've actually seen in the last 2 months. i couldn't, didn't read my book. and it's obvious because he bade the biggest geopolitical error of judgement of any leader. since the soviet union, his collapse, he invaded ukraine for on with a couple 100000 troops. precisely because he believed that the west was incapable of responding of coming together, that nato was indeed brain dead and obsolete as micron and trump referred to it.

and my god, was he wrong them? at the very end, irrespective of what you think about the united states and europe and china and the rest of the world, we can all agree that putin really badly misjudged this. because not only is the lensky still, they are running ukraine. yes, vastly more support than he did before. the fins and the swedes are about to join nato. the germans are spending twice as much on defense going forward. heck, even the democrats and republicans can agree that they hate mo putin more than they hate each other. we just had a pelosi go to key of and then a week later mcconnell goes the key of with their debt, with the delegations. so, i mean, i think if you want to look at these other global crises, you can indeed see that if the crisis is big enough, even a seriously dysfunctional and divided government against act together, i've always wondered to myself, what kind of shock could happen to snap people back in and you kind of look at

climate change as being really one of the leaders in that. and my response is i'm not so sure that we've had climate change build up. we've seen the increase in violent weather. ah, we've seen concerns. we've seen fires in floods and rising ocean levels, but i'm not sure if i still think a lot of people are comfortable as a frog in the pot that's getting warmer and warmer. do you believe really that climate change is going to be something that you get a consensus of response on early enough to prevent the warming levels in to get to the targets that have been laid out in some of the global i'm a climate deals a funny thing steve, that that frog in the boiling pot and it gets slightly slightly hotter and eventually dice is a met. what actually happens is the water gets hot and the frog gets really uncomfortable and it jumps out of the freaking water. that's what actually happened . right. and that is what's actually and literally happening to the planet with climate change. 2030 years ago when it was mostly about hugging trees and save in

wales, an activist cared. but the rest of the world didn't do very much, especially because you're looking at the mall div in bangladesh and you say, well, we lose those. that's bad. but how much does that affect me? i'm not going to those places. yeah. but now that it affects california. now that affects louisiana. now that affects your home in, in north carolina, as we just saw on the coast, you know, sort of a couple of days ago now that it's affecting australia with the massive droughts and italy and germany with the massive was suddenly all the people in power r c, we have to do something about this and, and the big difference in the last 1020 years is the entire world also agrees on the problem on the science. that is no more significant climate. denial is and there's no more real disinformation, a $195.00 countries get together every year. and they say with the into an intergovernmental panel on climate change. we've had 1.2 centigrade of climate

change already. it's anthropogenic, it's manmade. it's not coming from nature, and here are the implications now. everyone doesn't agree on how, how to respond and who should pay for. but agreement on the nature of the problem really matters. and even though the united states and china don't like each other, don't trust each other. the american see that the chinese are investing massively in solar and wind and electric vehicles and batteries and the supply chains and rare earths around the world to support that. and so suddenly in the united states, it's not just the tree huggers, it's people saying if we don't start focusing on a post carbon future, the chinese are going to dominate it. and the americans don't like that one bit. so this competition, but it's a virtuous competition. i know this is still much later than it needs to be. and this is a lot to play for me. a $2.00 degree future and a $1.00 degree future in terms of warming is

a difference of trillions and trillions of dollars and, and it will affect hundreds and hundreds of millions of wives. so we can't get complacent. there's a reason why the secretary general, the u. n, continues to talk about the urgency of having to do as much as humanly possible. but i mean, looking at this from a broad lens. the fact is that humanity is responding to this crisis. it's a goldilocks crisis, it's not a frog in a pot. it is not too big that we crawl into a ball and just wait for the comment to hit us, but not too small that we're complacent. any more, i think that's a very, very big deal. and you know, energy very well and you've suggested in the book, you know, some proactive things that can be done. a green martial plan for the world is one of these interesting ideas that you put on the table that could begin to rationalize how we collectively respond to these crises. but while you put that on the table, we've seen the g political crisis of russia's invasion of ukraine, drive oil and energy and gas prices up. you've see the price of coal skyrocketing,

you've got nations scrambling around energy and how they'll be back stopped by allies. you've seen the by the ministration open up an oil and gas leases again that had been shut down. can these swim together? can we simultaneously respond? you know, by opening up the fossil fuel world again during this crisis, but also meet the goals that you're talking about of making major moves um on, on climate remediation. oh steve, i mean, as you know, they do swim together because much higher energy prices give you a lot greater impetus to move faster towards renewables. and to focus more on nuclear, which we see the americans doing the germans doing the japanese doing. they were going to shut all the stuff down now to say, oh, we need this more and ok. some people think that nuclear is not renewable. it's not fossil fuels. it's not contributing the climate change. it really matters if ok, you focus more on efficiency or when energy prices are really high. if energy prices were really low for coal and oil and gas, then you'd be much more concerned about how long the transition is going to be in

about the fact that, wow, you know, maybe as to the, an expensive to go to solar is too expensive to move your car to electric. now we're seeing that these things are becoming cheaper at scale and much more compelling. now, the green martial plan is really important because in this environment, what we've seen is over a 1000000000 indians in the last 2 months have been so heat stressed by a 120 degree fahrenheit weather in delhi just yesterday that they can't work outside after 10 am and so the indian government is, and they're dealing with rolling blackouts in the indian government saying look, that all of this is happening, not because of us, we're poor, it's happening because of you guys the put all this carbon in the atmosphere. so unless you're going to pay us to make a transition, you know what we're going to use a lot more coal. so it is absolutely true that the poorest countries in the world, you know, american pollen policy makers can't just focus on the united states in its production,

but needs to focus on making this more equitable for the india's more equitable for the brazil's and not just yelling at them at cutting down the rain forest, but being willing to help ease that transition because they can't afford it the way the americans can and the europeans can. so that, that's really the call to arms in that chapter of my book. here another element of chaos and fear that i enjoyed reading in your book was your concern about autonomous drones about ai, about tak, that's kind of untethered to our needs and direction. and i been reading a lot about autonomous lethal weapon systems lately. the little icon terminator and arnold schwartzenegger coming back with sky net but, but these things are real and we're really moving to a period where science fiction is become reality. and many of the autonomous systems here. i, i, i like to know how you wrestle with that and tell our audience, if you wouldn't mind how you think we might, in a collective way, begin to respond to some of visa potential threats in technology. well,

i'd like to be as optimistic as i am on climate. i'm not yet for one obvious reason, which is that we as humanity do not yet agree on what the problem is. i mean, we have an intergovernmental panel on climate change that meets every year and says, this is the state of the planet in terms of climate change. there is no intergovernmental panel on artificial intelligence, on the dangers of this information on where we are in terms of lethal autonomous weapons on where we are in terms of cyber offensive attacks and capabilities. you can't fix a problem that you don't agree on and identify the start, so you need to start there. and if my book does nothing else, i'm hoping that this will be a more strong nudge into that direction. something i've discussed the great length with the secretary general, the un we, we have strong agreement around that, but we need it from the governments and not just the government. steve, unlike issues of responding to the russian invasion of ukraine,

when you talk about leap, autonomous weapons and cyber weapons, it's not just the governments, the companies, the tech companies actually exert sovereignty, dominion over the space. and they're going to need to be actors, principal actors in any institutional architecture. you bill. so if you wanted to create the ability to identify these problems then respond to them. it wouldn't just be getting a bunch of governments, it be getting a bunch of governments, but also some core american and chinese tech companies that are actually the most powerful actors in determining the diffusion of these technologies. i think that's where you have to start. and then from there you can start talking about what are the areas that you need to actually try to have in a public sector way containing proliferation and technologies, or managing the proliferation technology or criminalizing the proliferation of those technologies. as we have effectively for 75 years with nuclear weapons,

but it's a lot harder to do with these issues of, of cyber weapons and increasingly rogue states. and even organizations have capacity to do massive damage to our economies. and even our species. have you translated the book into chinese and sent it to seizing ping? ah, and also sent one of the white house because you lay out pretty clearly the fact that you see the united states and china on a collision course. they don't need to stay on there but, but things could get bad if and, and, and it's one of the precursors to getting some of these things. right. is that the united states in china have to realize at some level they need each other. i am less pessimistic about the us china relationship for 2 reasons. first is the extraordinary amount of economic interdependence that exists now. and that despite the political ins is to beat each other up. every one in power understands the importance of that interdependence. we're not going to suddenly decouple ourselves

from china. they're not going to suddenly decouple themselves from our us. and furthermore, the crises that i write about this in this book, they may not create more trust between the u. s. and china, but they act absolutely create more interdependence. and i think that's really important. and i also recognize that on the back of this crisis of russia invading ukraine for all of that chinese saying that their friends, without limits with putin 2 months later, we also recognize that their friends largely without benefits because the chinese government understands that they need to do much more business with the americans and europeans than they do with the russian economy. that is 110th their size. so this pragmatism, in the part of both of these governments that i think help ensure that we don't head into a cold war, which would make it so much harder to respond to any of these press one. i also hear you saying it and i, i, it's not said enough, is that deep coupling,

if you really go up because that's the word i hear all the time in washington is equivalent to a global depression, a massive collapse of quality of life in the united states probably the same in china, elsewhere in the world. i is that what you're, what i don't put words in your mouth, but when i hear decoupling, i say crazy but, but am i getting it wrong? oh no, you're absolutely right. it's just that the words are different from the reality. i mean people talk about the coupling and what they really, that mean is, well in areas of dual use for key national security issues. we shouldn't be allowing the chinese to buy advanced robotics companies. one that seems fairly sense of oh wow way, which is basically owned by the chinese military. we may not want them to be providing chips in our smart grid or to have surveillance, you know, sort of into american data like i get that. but that's very different from say that we no longer want the chinese and americans to travel to each other's countries. we don't watch on his tourism any more,

or i don't want them to buy our treasuries anymore. we don't want him to buy real estate or come to our university. how many universities in america would go bankrupt if chinese students stop painful fray? but no, i believe me. i mean, when i look at the n b a, i look at disney, i look an american banks. i look at american consumers go in a wal mart and buying goods that are inexpensive. that the amount of interdependence between our 2 economies is massive. and i hear wars like friends shoring and friend sourcing, which says, oh, we want to make sure that all of our, you know, supply chain is with countries that we lie. those changes are at the margins, they're incremental. but you're not going to suddenly end globalization by saying those words, because most of the big corporations out there are global corporations. they want to be global corporations. they want access to global markets and china soon going to be the largest economy in the world. a large majority of most of the countries in the world trade more with china than the united states. they don't do that

because they light china. they don't do that because they want to be authoritarian . they do it because the chinese market is so important. so i all do kind of get that, even though we don't want to say we ask you finally i and i want to commend you for taking on the risk of trying to put ideas on the table because it leaves it open. people criticizing there, but some of them you, you suggested is, you know, a global covey response sharing plan. a global kovacs of green marshal plan, which we discussed a world data organization. these are interesting concrete ideas. but one of the things i know in is if you do see some leaders out there, willing to take that risk of trying to lead and putting ideas on the table share with our audience. some of the leaders in the world you admire. if you would look, i mean, i think around the world, i like what i see from the new japanese prime minister kachimba um, in terms of his willingness to try to integrate japan more into a leadership role multilaterally supporting rule of law. i'm not the japanese usually are, you know, sort of responsible leaders domestically,

but they don't want to play very international role. i think that's been interesting also specifically in trying to improve the relationship with south korea, which has been broken for a while, but they're both allies of united states that's kind of dysfunctional. i've been impressed with that. i was enormously impressed with olaf shoals of who, you know, gave this in this huge speech. it was almost the equivalent of nixon go into china . the head of the social democratic party saying we cannot go ahead with nor extreme to we have to spend more on defense. we must be leaders of nato and the european union together. i thought that was a pretty big deal. so i like to see that i think there are a lot of leaders like that around the world. people who are leading with facts, leading with science, some are on the left, some are on the right, but they're important. i think the greek prime minister care act was meant to talk his leading a country that went through a depression of greater depth and breadth than the united states went through a 100 years ago. and seeing the response to kobe. and the enormous redistribution

of wealth from wealthy countries to poor countries inside europe, as a martial plan for greece, and wanting to take advantage of that. and euro skepticism increases so much lower today than it was 5 years ago. 10 years ago, 20 years ago. i think that's a big deal. and finally, i would focus on ursula vander line and on all of the european leaders in brussels, who are creating the most important super national institution of governance in the world today. not just in terms of regulating tech, but leaning into climate responding to cove it, i mean these are we need in a world that is falling apart in terms of regulation and rules where rule of law seems weaker, where, you know, sort of democracies are becoming hybrid and becoming liberal, it's important to have people that stand up for rule of law, people that stand up for human rights, people stand up for multilateralism and the e. u is doing a good job with that. and i think that that that helps the entire world. well folks,

this is in bremar, at its most optimistic in bremar, president of the eurasia group editor at large time magazine, an author of the power of crisis, how 3 threats and our response will change the world. thanks so much for joining us . it's always a pleasure. so what's the bottom line? the world needs new ideas. no one disagrees, that chaos is unfolding and needs a real response. my guess today has 3 tangible solutions, a global kovacs response to the current and future pandemic, a global green marshal plan, and a world data organization. well, these aren't enough to turn around the cycle of bad news and fear of what lies ahead, but they are an attempt to build new foundations for human kind. where we as individuals become proactive about dealing with crises rather than just allowing ourselves to be victims of them. and that's the bottom line ah,

joined the debate. wonderful as it is this diplomatic language. it really means nothing on the ground, on air or online at your voice. the queen is be removed as head of state because she's done absolutely nothing. what these country white man, where is the progress? i haven't seen enough racial as do see sports journalist. i look like me if you need to listen to those voice perspectives, even when it's hard to challenge is some of our foundational thinking. this dream on al jazeera, india is that a heat wave is uniting blazes across the country, destroying people's health homes and life. one on one isa investigate india on fi. on al jazeera lou.