look at some of the financial pages they've made. last, what's next? verse, real lanka. as it's economic crisis depends on the prompts one, dr. counting the cost on al jazeera july on al jazeera campaigning for the kenyan presidency begins in earnest. could a hotly contested battle lead to the violence that his mom previous selections from the headlines to the unreported. people in power investigates the use and abuse of power around the world. to museum the flute in a referendum on a new constitution. could it spell the end for the only democracy to have emerged from the arab spring up rising as india suffers unprecedented? hate way? one o 18th goes to the fiery heart of the crisis. center goal hedge to the poles with the main opposition parties uniting, can they wrestle power away from the ruling party? july on al jazeera ah

and carry johnston, the top stories, hair on al jazeera russian back separatists say they've surrounded the city of lucy chance and ukraine's eastern hans region cave denies that claim and says, fighting is ongoing is to chance is the last ukrainian control city in the hands, more people are leaving their homes as russian forces step up their attacks. with what other practice in the city doesn't exist anymore, it has practically been wiped off the face of the earth. there is no humanitarian aid distribution center. it has been here. daniel, to run the nimble, there was no water or electricity, nothing in our town. 11 people died of starvation. they didn't have any food for those who did survives, there was a mother with 3 children walking down the road crying. i invited her in and gave her some flower and the thing was clean. anyways,

now i stayed almost till the last day till they hit the culture center. it was destroyed, there were many casualties. i was among them. i was covered with rubble. people help to dig me up with money. my injuries were not serious. one might say, god showed me mercy firms in the can you? this is horrible that small children had seen all this and become expert and military equipment let flew from where the children know all this and are not afraid. it's both good and horrible. and they said that this was why is there war? i do not understand anything back in 945. it was clear. now i don't understand anything, but yet it was becky stones. government has declared a one month state of emergency in the north western region of the plans, the curb. it's autonomy sparked rare protests, correct? co park stone is an autonomous province and home to the correct pac people and

ethnic minority with its own language. yeah. most of the demonstrators rallied there on friday against proposed reforms, which would take awaits constitutional rights to independence. video posted on social media showed confrontations with lease on saturday president sharp controversy. you have traveled to the province and promised to scrap his reform plans. argentina's economy minister has resigned in a blow to the government of present. alberto fernandez, is struggling to rain in rising inflation, which is fueling public anger over the cost of living. theresa bo has more from when, as ours, this country's phasing very high inflation is currently around 5 percent every month, but some say better could reach 80 percent of this year. we're also seeing shortages of this. so for example, the central bank is struggling to access us dollars. this is

a huge problem for argentina because it has to pay a flooring debt, but also it's vital for imports in this country. so was man's resignation. basically, lays bare this enormous conflict that exists within the ruling coalition within the government. within christina hernandez, the kirschner and alberto cera ma'am best palestinian leaders say they've handed over the bullets that killed al jazeera, joined the strand. i will actually to u. s. forensic experts. investigators will run the ballistic test on the bullet to see if it matches ammunition used by israeli soldiers. the u. s. has apparently agreed not to share that with it with their is really counterparts. sharina was a palestinian american. she was killed by israeli forces on may. the 11th or covering israeli raids in jeanine camp. israel says it's shot down 3 unarmed drones north, by the lebanon based group has been a towards a disputed gas field in the mediterranean sea. the military released this video, so to show them being destroyed. the kerisha gas field is part of

a maritime dispute between israel and lebanon. a 3 day meeting of religious leaders and tribal elders in afghanistan has ended with calls for the well to recognize the taliban government and lift sanctions. women were not allowed to take part. international community has been wary of offering recognition, especially on the taliban restricted women's rights. more than a 1000000 people have descended on central london to march. the 50th anniversary of you case 1st prize parade event follows 2 years of cancellation because of the crone of virus pandemic. those are the headlines. we'll have more news here on al jazeera. that's off to the bottom line to stay with us. ah, i am steve clement's and i have a question. if you took

a look at the world today which side is winning chaos or control? is our world becoming more stable, more fair, more peaceful, or forces picking a wrecking ball to all that and leaving crises as the new normal? let's get to the bottom line. ah, if you're anxious about where the world is going, well, you're not alone. a deadly global pandemic blindsided humanity more than 2 years ago. and millions are dead and it's wake. violent weather is on the rise around the world in addition to the level of the world's oceans, wreaking havoc and disc, locating people around the planet, and its technological future. as bill joy once reported and feared on the cover of wired magazine 20 years ago, the rapid speed of technological advances in genetics and computing power and its derivatives like artificial intelligence are out running our ability to make sure they're used for good rather than bad. add onto that the rise of autocracies and old style russian invasions. well, it's not exactly lobby on rose,

but our guest today sees a silver lining in the big crises of this moment and suggests what the world may need to revitalize the social contract of empathy and common purpose between nations is exactly this. a massive wakeup call in bremar has just come out with a forward looking book, the power of crisis, how 3 threats and our response will change the world. he is the president and founder of eurasia group, a global research and consulting firm, based in new york that focuses on the risks facing businesses and governments in it's great to be with you today and congratulations on the new book, the power of crisis, i guess which i found fascinating about this as i've read new here. everything you've ever written, and this is the most optimistic book. you're usually my cynic seeing things realistically and wide eyed for our audience. you know, in as the one who is really the champion of, of understanding in the world that there is no organizing force anymore. we have a, ga, 0 world, the headless notice. and i think what you're saying is that, you know,

someone's going to come out from outer space, that big, existential crises are going to hit us. and somehow order is going to come back. am i getting the right message? yes, so let's put it this way. i'm someone who really believes that geo politics like economics have cyclical boom and bust cycles, right. i know we're probably heading into a recession right now. we've had them every 7 years since world war 2. we recognize them when they hit. we've got fiscal and monetary tools to respond, we generally try to avoid them, right? but they're also geo political cycles. and you political cycles occur because when you have a huge crisis, then coming out of that you create new institutions and architecture that reflects the state of the world, the balance of power that exists after the time. so world war 2 happens. we create the united nations, the i, m f, the world bank, the w t l. right?

precisely because there was this massive disruption we need new architecture affect the way the world is going forward. okay, so for the last, since you've known me for the last 2025 years, we've been heading into a geopolitical recession. what i call a g 0 world, where the balance of power is increasingly mis aligned with the institutions. and that's true both inside the united states and globally, and i've been writing all of these books that have described that the end of the free market, right? the state capitalist, china rise. and that means that the hybrid system, every nation for itself, the united states as you know, sort of the g one is no longer the global policeman. what happens as a consequence, even us versus them, the talks about the rise of populism, the disintegration of institutions inside a lot of democracies around the world, the growing in liberalism, of democracies. so now you start to see all of these global crises emerge. whether it's the pandemic or it's the russian invasion of ukraine and a new cold war,

or whether it's global climate and the rise of disruptive technologies. and this book is the book that says ok, we're now in the depth of geopolitical recession, recession, we know, energy 0. how do we, what are we going to do to take advantage of these global crises that will allow us to get back towards a geopolitical boom cycle? and i don't describe it that way in the book because that's a little wonky. right? i mean, getting the question you just asked that that's kind of why this is a much more hopeful book. it's a much more optimistic book. and if you remember from my dedication, the dedication says to a glass half full, that 1st half was tasty. and it's basically saying we're the ones that drank the 1st half of class. and so we want to get out of this were the ones that are going to have to do so. well, i guess my question to you is, you know, i know, i know this is just coming out, but how is this playing with people?

do they think you're utopian? or is this a realist way of looking at how common responses actually happen? well, i mean, reagan was a movie guy. right. and i'm in the fact is that his, if you want to portray this is a movie, it would be like the very small c, independence day. aliens come down and everyone rallies around, you know, were able to defeat the the alias. what it isn't, is this movie that just came out a few weeks ago. don't look up where a comment is coming. and we all basically ignore it until it's too late. and the world comes to an end. and, and the reason why i think that the response to this book has been much more positive even though so many people are running around with their hair on fire right now. is because we've actually seen in the last 2 months. i couldn't, didn't read my book. and it's obvious because he bade the biggest geopolitical error of judgement of any leader. since the soviet union, his collapse,

he invaded ukraine po on with a couple 100000 troops. precisely because he believed that the west was incapable of responding of coming together, that nato was indeed brain dead, an obsolete as micron and trump referred to it. and my god, was he wrong? i mean, the very, irrespective of what you think about the united states and europe and, and china and the rest of the world, we can all agree that putin really badly misjudged this. because not only is the lensky still, they are running ukraine. yes, vastly more support than he did before. the fins and the swedes are about to join nato. the germans are spending twice as much on defense going forward. heck, even the democrats and republicans can agree that they hate mo hoot more than they hate each other. we just had a pelosi go to key of and then a week later mcconnell goes to kiya with their debt, with the delegations. so, i mean, i think if you want to look at these other global crises,

you can indeed see that if the crisis is big enough, even a seriously dysfunctional and divide and government gets active, i've always wondered to myself, what kind of shock could happen to snap people back in and you kind of look at climate change as being really one of the leaders in that. and my response is i'm not so sure that we've had climate change build up. we've seen the increase in violent weather. ah, we've seen concerns. we've seen fires in floods and rising ocean levels, but i'm not sure if i, i still think a lot of people are comfortable as a frog in the pot that's getting warmer and warmer. do you believe really that climate change is going to be something that you get a consensus of response on early enough to prevent the warming levels in to get to the targets that have been laid out in some of the global i'm a climate deals a funny thing steve, that that frog in the boiling pot and it gets slightly slightly hotter and eventually dice is a met. what actually happens is the water gets hot and the frog gets really

uncomfortable and it jumps out of the freaking water. that's what actually happened . right. and that is what's actually and literally happening to the planet with climate change at 2030 years ago when it was mostly about hugging trees and save in wales, an activist cared. but the rest of the world didn't do very much, especially because you're looking at the mall leaves and bangladesh and you say, well, if we lose those, that's bad. but how much does that affect me? i'm not going to those places. yeah. but now that it affects california. now that affects louisiana. now that affects your home in, in north carolina, as we just saw on the coast, you know, sort of a couple days ago now that it's affecting australia with the massive droughts and italy and germany with the massive was suddenly all the people in power are, see we have to do something about this and, and the big difference in the last 1020 years is the entire world also agrees on

the problem on the science that there's no more significant climate denial is and there's no more real disinformation, a $195.00 countries get together every year and they say with the into an intergovernmental panel on climate change. we've had 1.2 centigrade of climate change already. it's anthropogenic, it's manmade. it's not coming from nature. and here are the implications. now. everyone doesn't agree on how, how to respond and who should pay for. but agreement on the nature of the problem really matters. and even though the united states and china don't like each other, don't trust each other. the american see that the chinese are investing massively in solar and wind and electric vehicles and batteries and the supply chains and rare earths around the world to support that. and so suddenly in the united states, it's not just the tree huggers. it's people saying if we don't start focusing on a post carbon future, the chinese are going to dominate it. and the americans don't like that one bit. so

this competition, but it's a virtuous competition. i know this is still much later than it needs to be. and this is a lot to play for me, a 2.5 degree future. and a $1.00 degree future in terms of warming is a difference of trillions and trillions of dollars and. and it will affect hundreds and hundreds of millions of wives. so we can't get complacent. there's a reason why the secretary general, the u. n. continues to talk about the urgency of having to do as much as humanly possible. but i mean, looking at this from a broad lens. the fact is that humanity is responding to this crisis. it's a goldilocks crisis. it's not a frog in a pot. it is not too big that we crawl into a ball and just wait for the comment to hit us, but not too small that we're complacent. any more, i think that's a very, very big deal and you know, energy very well and you've suggested in the book, you know, some proactive things that can be done. a green martial plan for the world is one of these interesting ideas that you put on the table that could begin to

rationalize how we collectively respond to these crises. but while you put that on the table, we've seen the g political crisis of russia's invasion of ukraine, drive oil and energy and gas prices up. you've see the price of coal skyrocketing, you've got nation scrambling around energy and how they'll be back stopped by allies. you've seen the by the ministration open up an oil and gas leases again that had been shut down. can me swim together? can we simultaneously respond? you know, by opening up the fossil fuel world again during this crisis, but also meet the goals that you're talking about of making major moves um on, on climate remediation. oh steve, i mean, as you know, they do swimming together because much higher energy prices give you a lot greater impetus to move faster towards renewables. and to focus more on nuclear, which we see the americans doing the germans doing the japanese doing. they were gonna shut all the stuff down now to say, oh, we need this more and ok. some people think that nuclear is not renewable. it's not

fossil fuels. it's not contributing the climate change. it really matters if ok, you focus more on efficiency. when energy prices are really high, if energy prices were really low for coal, and oil and gas, then you'd be much more concerned about how long the transitions going to be in about the fact that, wow, you know, maybe as to the, an expensive to go to solar is too expensive to move your car to electric. now we're seeing that these things are becoming cheaper at scale and much more compelling. now, the green martial plan is really important because in this environment, what we've seen is over a 1000000000 indians in the last 2 months have been so heat stressed by a 120 degree fahrenheit weather in delhi just yesterday that they can't work outside after 10 am and so the indian government is, and they're dealing with rolling blackouts in the indian government saying look, that all of this is happening, not because of us, we're poor, it's happening because of you guys the put all this carbon in the atmosphere. so

unless you're going to pay us to make a transition, you know what we're going to use a lot more coal. so it is absolutely true that the poorest countries in the world, you know, american pollen policy makers can't just focus on the united states in its production, but needs to focus on making this more equitable for the india's more equitable for the brazil's and not just yelling at them at cutting down the rain forest, but being willing to help ease that transition because they can't afford it the way the americans can and the europeans can so that, that's really the call to arms in that chapter of my book. here another element of chaos in fear that i enjoyed reading in your book was your concern about autonomous drones about ai, about tak, that's kind of untethered to our needs and direction. and i been reading a lot about autonomous lethal weapon systems lately. the little like out a terminator and arnold schwartzenegger coming back with sky net but, but these things are real and we're really moving to

a period where science fiction is become reality and many of the autonomous systems here. i, i like to know how you wrestle with that and tell our audience, if you wouldn't mind how you think we might in a collective way, begin to respond to some of visa potential threats in technology. well, i'd like to be as optimistic as i am on climate. i'm not yet for one obvious reason, which is that we as humanity do not yet agree on what the problem is. i mean, we have an intergovernmental panel on climate change that meets every year and says, this is the state of the planet in terms of climate change. there is no intergovernmental panel on artificial intelligence, on the dangers of this information on where we are in terms of lethal autonomous weapons on where we are in terms of cyber offensive attacks and capabilities. you can't fix a problem that you don't agree on and identify the start, so you need to start there. and if my book does nothing else, i'm hoping that this will be a more strong nudge into that direction. something i've discussed the great length

with the secretary general, the un we, we have strong agreement around that, but we need it from the governments and not just the government. steve, unlike issues of responding to the russian invasion of ukraine, when you talk about leap, autonomous weapons and cyber weapons, it's not just the government's the companies, the tech companies actually exert sovereignty, dominion over the space, and they're going to need to be actors, principal actors in any institutional architecture you bill. so if you wanted to create the ability to identify these problems then respond to them. it wouldn't just be getting a bunch of governments. it be getting a bunch of governments, but also some core american and chinese tech companies that are actually the most powerful actors in determining the diffusion of these technologies. i think that's where you have to start. and then from there you can start talking about what are

the areas that you need to actually try to have in a public sector way containing proliferation and technologies, or managing the proliferation technology or criminalizing the proliferation of those technologies. as we have effectively for 75 years with nuclear weapons, but it's a lot harder to do with these issues of, of cyber weapons and increasingly rogue states. and even organizations have capacity to do massive damage to our economies. and even our species. have you translated the book into chinese and sent it to seizing ping? ah, and also sent one of the white house because you lay out pretty clearly the fact that you see the united states and china on a collision course. they don't need to stay on there but, but things could get bad if and, and, and it's one of the precursors to getting some of these things. right. is that the united states and china have to realize at some level they need each other. i am less pessimistic about the us china relationship for 2 reasons. first is the

extraordinary amount of economic interdependence that exists now. and that despite the political ins, is to be each other up. every one in power understands the importance of that interdependence. we're not going to suddenly decouple ourselves from china. they're not going to suddenly be couple of selves from our us. and furthermore, the crises that i write about this in this book, they may not create more trust between the u. s. and china, but they act absolutely create more interdependence. and i think that's really important. and i also recognize that on the back of this crisis of russia invading ukraine for all of that chinese saying that their friends, without limits with putin 2 months later, we also recognize that their friends largely without benefits because the chinese government understands that they need to do much more business with the americans and europeans than they do with the russian economy. that is 110th their size. so this pragmatism,

in the part of both of these governments that i think help ensure that we don't head into a cold war, which would make it so much harder to respond to any of these press one. i also hear you saying it and i, i, it's not said enough, is that decoupling, if you really go up because that's the word i hear all the time in washington is equivalent to a global depression, a massive collapse of quality of life in the united states. probably the same in china, elsewhere in the world. i is that what you're what, what i don't put words in your mouth, but when i hear decoupling, i say crazy but, but am i getting it wrong? oh no, you're absolutely right. it's just that the words are different from the reality. i mean people talk about the coupling and what they really, that mean is, well in areas of dual use for key national security issues. we shouldn't be allowing the chinese to buy advanced robotics companies. one that seems fairly sense of oh, why way, which is basically owned by the chinese military. we may not want them to be

providing chips in our smart grid or to have surveillance, you know, sort of into american data like i get that. but that's very different from say that we no longer want the chinese americans to travel to each other's countries. we don't watch andes tourism any more, but we don't want to supply our treasuries anymore. we don't want him to buy real estate or come to our university. how many universities in america would go bankrupt if chinese students stop painful fray? but no, i believe me. i mean, when i look at the n b a, i look at disney, i look an american banks. i look at american consumers go in a wal mart and buying goods that are inexpensive. that the amount of interdependence between our 2 economies is massive. and i hear wars like friends shoring and friend sourcing, which says, oh, we want to make sure that all of our, you know, supply chain is with countries that we lie. those changes are at the margins, they're incremental. but you're not going to suddenly end globalization by saying those words, because most of the big corporations out there are global corporations. they want

to be global corporations. they want access to global markets and china soon going to be the largest economy in the world. a large majority of most of the countries in the world trade more with china than the united states. they don't do that because they light china. they don't do that because they want to be authoritarian . they do it because the chinese market is so important. so right, all do kind of get that even though we don't want to say we ask you finally i and i want to commend you for taking the risk of trying to put ideas on the table because it leaves it open. people criticizing them, but some of them you, you suggested is, you know, a global covey response sharing plan. a global kovacs od green martial plan, which we discussed a world data organization. these are interesting, concrete ideas. but one of the things i know in is you do see some leaders out there willing to take that risk of trying to lead in putting ideas on the table share with our audience. some of the leaders in the world you admire. if you would look, i mean, i think around the world, i like what i see from the new japanese prime minister, cuz shita,

i'm in terms of his willingness to try to integrate japan more into a leadership role multilaterally supporting rule of law. i. it's not the japanese usually are, you know, sort of responsible leaders domestically, but they don't want to play very international role. i think that's been interesting also specifically in trying to improve the relationship with south korea, which has been broken for a while. but they're both allies in united states, and that's kind of dysfunctional. i've been impressed with that. i was enormously impressed with olaf shoals of who, you know, gave this and this huge speech. there was almost the equivalent of nixon go into china, the head of the social democratic party saying we cannot go ahead with nor extreme to we have to spend more on defense. we must be leaders of nato and the european union together. i thought that was a pretty big deal, so i like to see that. i think there are a lot of leaders like that around the world. people who are leading with facts, leading with science, some are on the left, some are on the right,

but they're important. i think the greek prime minister track us meant to talk his leading a country that went through a depression of greater depth and breadth than the united states, went through a 100 years ago and seeing the response to kogan and the enormous redistribution of wealth from wealthy countries to poor countries inside europe as a martial plan for greece and wanting to take advantage of that and euro skepticism increases so much lower today than it was 5 years ago. 10 years ago, 20 years ago. i think that's a big deal. and finally, i would focus on ursula vander line and on all of the european leaders in brussels, who are creating the most important super national institution of governance in the world today. not just in terms of regulating tax, but leaning into climate responding to cobit, i mean, these are, we need in a world, this falling apart in terms of regulation and rules where rule of law seems weaker, where, you know, sort of democracies are becoming hybrid and becoming a liberal,

it's important to have people that stand up for rule of law, people that stand up for human rights, people to stand up from multilateralism and the e. u is doing a good job with that. i think that helps the entire world. while folks, this is an bremar, at his most optimistic in bremar, president of the eurasia group editor at large of high magazine and author of the power of crisis. how 3 threats and our response will change the world. thanks so much for joining us. it's always a pleasure. so what's the bottom line? the world needs new ideas. no one disagrees, that chaos is unfolding and needs a real response. my guess today has 3 tangible solutions, a global kovacs response to the current and future pandemic, a global green marshal plan, and a world data organization. all these aren't enough to turn around the cycle of bad news and fear of what lies ahead. but they are an attempt to build new foundations for humankind, where we, as individuals become pro active about dealing with crises rather than just

allowing ourselves to be victims of them. and that's the bottom line ah, meet you small natural rocks from outer space that survive the journey down to wash and have high market value for rock and minimal collectors. on to see of a world's joins the moroccan know minds in their desert search with these gifts from the sky, head up sienna icon till that it's a me to roy. had it is it does. i mean to roy morocco's meet you write hunter's own all josie and diverse range of stories from across the globe from the perspective of a net let's janice analogy. era ah

.