accused of corruption by inflating costs with a pixel worth president. this is the devil's breakfast. you have just ordered the devil's breakfast. well, most $100000000000.00 by that, a big pickle under $1000000000.00. in public that ah, we're now boring to p. interest on previous warren. so back at manion. yes. family home, she prepares a basic meal. she's behind on her rent and school fees. she's running out of ways to make more money. she pelvis. she's living in incredibly desperate times. cathy sawyer, all jazeera nairobi. ah . hello again. the headlines on al jazeera, the un security council, has passed a resolution to extend cross border age deliveries to the last rebel held area in

north western syria for 6 months. earlier, russia vetoed an attempt to renew the mandate for a year. we've heard repeatedly from the u. n. and from ngos that a renewal for 12 months was necessary to provide operational certainty so they could prepare to meet that humanitarian need, especially during the harsh months of winter last friday, russia stopped this from happening with today's vote. innocent syrians can breathe no sigh of relief, the suffering and the uncertainty goes on without the confidence of at least 12 months. un agencies and n, jose risk being caught in a perpetual cycle of pre positioning and contingency planning. the euro had parity

with the us dollar on trade in trading on tuesday. that's the lowest valuation of europe's currency in 20 years. it's driven by fear as if a global recession and uncertainty about energy supply. london busiest airport is announced that will limit the number of d parting passengers 210-0002 day for the next 2 months. it follows weeks of travel chaos for travelers in the u. k. the brother of sir lincoln president go to buy a rich product that has been prevented from leaving the country at an airport in colombo, passel red pack, so was set to travel to do by but was stopped after passengers protested. a private funeral has been held in tokyo for former prime minister shadow of a people lined the streets of the capital to pay their final respects as his body has been taken from the georgia temple to the funeral hall. now says james, web space telescope is captured, a distinct signature of water on

a distant planet. the discovery is the most detailed, if its kind to data. scientists have been analyzing the 1st full color images from the telescope, which are brimming with thousands of distant galaxies and stars. the news hour is at the top of the hour on al jazeera. next, it's inside story. thanks for watching the bye. for now. in 8000000000 people on us by november. that's the forecast from the united nation. global population growth is slowing down and many societies or getting older or how do we deal with the challenges ahead? this is my story. ah,

ah, ah. hello there and welcome to the program. i'm the star. now the world's population is growing, but at the slowest pace in 70 is not the conclusion of the un place of global population forecast. we are generally living longer and healthier lives than previous generations. but this, the report also says, will have huge implications for our economy, social welfare systems, and our environment. now, the number of people on our planet is expected to hit 8000000000 by november, and then increased by half, a 1000000000 towards the end of this decade. but birth rate, meanwhile, are falling in many countries. in the coming years, global population growth will be concentrated in just a nation's democratic republic of congo, egypt, if you're up yet, nigeria, pakistan, the philippines, tanzania, and india, which is expected to support china as the most populous nation on the planet. next

year. the global population is also getting older, on average, a person is expected to live to 77 years by 2050. that's up from 732019. while the director of the united nations population division explains the effects of aging society as worldwide, traditionally, we have many more children than older people to take care of. and now it's switching to a point where, you know, depending on how you define the age groups. the number of older people will eventually be larger than the number children. and this, this is simply cations for rather obvious reasons that you've got a lot of private and public arrangements to care for people that older ages. there are financial implications involved, especially for government budgets. but they're also real concerns about the living conditions for those elderly people. what will that be like and will that,

will there be adequate social protections to ensure that this growing population older people is not impoverished? well, we'll bring in all of our guests and just a moment that fast this report from mitchell and new delhi, next year, india is set to surpass china. and the gap between these 2 nations could increase by 2050. this could help india in many ways. for example, india has been pushing for more representation internationally. experts say that concerns and demands could carry more weight, especially at forums like the united nations. on the economic front, this makes india the world's largest consumer market one that could invite a lot more investment. now, domestically population control has been a contentious electoral issue. experts have advocated for more focus on reproductive rights and justice. this includes improving girls education,

increasing the number of women in the workforce and improving much on health. some of these efforts have been effective because the rate of population growth has slowed down considerably. but there are many challenges. the pandemic has reversed many of these gains. many women have been forced to quit the workforce, and there has been an increase in child marriages. experts say they need to be more awareness of family planning, becomes an issue of choice and not chance and coercion. oh, well there's obviously plenty to take apart from this report, but i do want to start with where we are at the moment. we're obviously living in a pandemic, and i believe the report suggests 15000000 excess deaths just to the end of 2021, a full in life expectancy. but that all seems to be a bit of a blip given the trends that we're looking at. so we're mostly living longer, but reproducing less, darrell, you wrote a book called empty planet just

a couple of years back. do you still think that that's the way we're headed early them faster than we were talking about in the book. and really, that's a focus of all of this, we can talk about the pandemic with the talked about aging. can talk about those kinds of things. but the real part point us in the offices for children. and that's really work. so she planted is about of so what's happening to fertility rates for the recall option? well, with a medium fertility scenario, i believe the u. n is projecting that global population will peak before the end of this century. so 2086 at just over 10400000000 people. kathleen, i believe you were very much involved with the last un report on the world's population. so this projection is obviously as narrow said sooner than the last projection. what's driving that change? while my understanding is that the global population projections are put together every 2 to 3 years from a number of different national than this. and they haven't,

the long range projection have not changed too much over the years. right now we're at a world population about 7900000000. the medium projection as you, as you mentioned by 2100, we could be at 10400000000, but there's also a very wide range. there's a lot of uncertainty about population trends moving into the future and have a lot to do with the kinds of policies and programs that are in place in countries all over the world. so the us has projected that the range of possible population futures by 2100, are from a low of 7000000000 to a high as were 2800000000. and it's a very wide range of possibility for how population could grow in the future. and i would argue that that has significant implications for the health and well being of people and for the health and wellbeing the planet. we'll get into some of those trends in just a moment that i want to look at good. the growth that we're seeing on the horizon, the immediate horizon, 8000000000 people on this planet by november give,

will take a year, according to the report, and much of that growth is going to be taking place in india. so print i'm, i was looking at the number of bus per women and it actually seems to have dropped . so what's driving population growth there? so there are a number of factors. the 1st is that education rich, as we all know, is the best conscious that says that goes that getting higher education levels are taking place back in. i believe the government has invested in family planning, but the focus in the high district them in the, in the very uneven situation by much of south india has reached the placement level facility. in fact, 24 states in india and the 6 states and often have high fertility rate. the rates are coming down because the government with new programming is focusing in

the facility to 6 thought there is greater access. so bizarre, just number of gentle every time a new contraceptive is introduced, the extra credit, but that is increased globally or within any country ready to increase contraceptives? i just knew that some what was happening introduce and lastly, i'd like to think that the, the had a much higher passivity rate let's say amongst muslims. but the muslim facility has decline. very sharp, specially in the last decade and growing up as well as the fact that the value education for god more than they used to is what is helping. and finally, age as marriage is increasing,

which also has put in the decline as well as for the full length of the giant going on. despite all of that, though, we are still expecting india to overtake china as well as population wells with related country by potentially next year. and i see that it's already beginning to spare. talk of a permanent fees on the un security council. now given the trends that we're seeing and where this population growth is taking place, darrow let me ask you what kind of political shifts should we be looking for? or i think we should be increasingly looking for population power to drive political power. and what we haven't brought up here is the only continent that in the world in which the risk significant growth are going long term longer term is future. and that's africa because that's really the only continent or i guess region depending on how you want to define it. that really has still above replacement, right? population. both china, i mean the 3, the world's largest,

3 countries, china, india, and in united states or recorded historic lows last year or the last couple of years, further fertility rates. so they're not going to be challenging for global population dominance, whether we're increasingly it's going to be a focus on africa. i want to get into africa in a moment. but because of pin, i'm talking about reproductive rights. i want to also bring in at this point, the un secretary general's response to the population forecasts that we saw and turn you can, harris says it's an occasion to celebrate the health achievement that have extended life spans and reduce child mortality worldwide. but he did also criticize what he called renewed assaults on a women's right to access health services and to make informed choices on whether or not to even have a baby complications from pregnancy and childbirth are among the leading causes of death for girls between the ages of $15.00 to $19.00 parts of africa and south asia account of 86 percent of maternal death worldwide. and last month the u. s. supreme court overturned roe vs wade. landmark willing that guaranteed abortion rights in

poland has also restricted access to the procedure. is obviously boston at chrissy when it comes to reproductive rights. and kathleen, how does that then translate into a broader patterns of inequity? i think one of the most fascinating things to think about and to look at when we're, when we're examining population, trying to understand what they tell us about persistent inequities across society. whether that's inequities in reproductive rights and reproduce access to reproductive health care, which is still a huge problem for many people from young women and girls around the world who would like to be able to delay pregnancy or avoid pregnancy, but don't have access to meaningful information and services that would enable them to achieve reproductive autonomy. there's a very basic fundamental human right for reproductive autonomy that hundreds of millions of people around the world still do not have. it also tells us

a lot about gender inequity and the ways in which girls, hundreds of millions of girls are not able to go to walk. the ways in which women do not have are not empowered in the workforce or, or in the household to be able to really realize opportunities in their lives that include motherhood, but extend beyond motherhood. so a lot of what is driving persistent, rapid population growth, which as are other guests that is happening in africa, but also in pockets all across the world. is this indication of a lack of rights in inequities, especially in the health and gender space? well, let's turn to africa now because looking at the numbers, more than half of the growth we're expecting by 2050 is going to come from africa by which time i believe nigeria is set to become the 4th most populous country on the planet. we're looking at decreasing reproduction rates around the wild as people get richer, but i know there are also some ex,

about to argue that africa is race of decrease is actually less or slower than perhaps some other parts of the developing wild. because culturally, the ideal family size is larger than elsewhere. darrow, what do you make of the fash? wasn't the 1st thing in the u. n. recognizes this in their report. the data from africa are great. support which we don't really know precisely what's going on at africa. but, you know, if, if the past is prologue, i expect that the trends that we see in other parts of the world that you know, are of moved incredibly rapidly in terms of changing their fertility. or it's mainly as a result of culture that the effect of that is going to be significant in africa to we're just having a pretty difficult time measuring it. but in places where we do have better data, say for example, like kenya, where they do have good population data. but you look at the, um, the fertility rate in a place like my roby and it's pretty close to replacement, right? so the trends that are happening everywhere else world are also happening in africa

. we just don't know how fast because it's really hard to get a handle on what's going on for material. so what were some of the demographics in africa? the ones that we do have are also really interesting. and nigeria, i believe 70 percent of its 200000000 people right now are currently under 30. so the population growth that we're seeing there is also a rise in the working age population. this so called demo demographic dividend. that could either be an opportunity for economic growth, potentially a cause for political strife premium. how have you seen that be played out in india? so in india, the main reason they go is because we have 360000000 young people for many who are productive have a or will be ready soon. but in india we keep talking about the demographic because we have a large you population. but the problem is that the bidding know is small,

it is not a problem. so the we know for harvesting the big dividend is real close christine yard more in after i've read some said a little longer. we have to invest in young paper education, but more than that, the job for the demographic delivery to take place and become a reality. we have less the job at this point of time. that is huge number of young people who are not killed. do even take advantage of the job opportunities that are doing. so if you don't do something very quickly in terms of their training and getting a job for young people, we are going to have a demographic does that. so the right now we are on the high, i'm the have an opportunity and i must say that they in the vision is

very automatic, graphic difference will happen. so in the india we are a bio getting and so on. the also need to have more tempering, the greater the young people on deception and find me fix the education and specially installation on reproductive. not just right suggested we also need to find the planning temporary methods in your focus. brian mad be on the line, which is a permanent, by young people need access to temporary. and then all black family, they need access to contraception or be earlier begin to recognize and bring in in schools out of schools. great. the information on

that i had the banks reality. they should kill is something the other way but give drafting way and i'm i want to bring in kathleen hand because i see you nodding and agreeing with much of that kathleen. but do you see this demographic dividend as a potential threat or only an opportunity? well, one of the things that's really critical to understand about the demographic dividend is that it is realized when there is a decline in fertility. that is the thing that triggers a demographic and so that the proportion of the population that is in the working age is larger. and as i mentioned, it is a brief period of time, requires this decline in fertility. it also requires investments in education and employment opportunities for that brief period of time that we have this really large a large cohort of the population in the working age. so if it's not simply the demographic,

the dividend does not com simply from rapid population growth is rapid population growth followed by a period of fertility wind that results in this big chunk of the population in the working age round. and that is really difficult to accomplish, but there are a lot of opportunities for it. but it does require lots of investment in contraceptive options, as was mentioned in sexuality, education and things that advance gender equity and access to reproductive health care in a wide range of contraceptive methods. and then also the plethora of education and employment opportunities that need to be ready for this very large cohort that is coming into the working at home. but that so i also has some political implications having carolyn here. and what do you make of where this could 5th things, particularly for the developing wound? well, actually, i think the really interesting thing for me and listening to this conversation is

how much this conversation is gonna change over the next 10 to 15 years. because the conversation is going to shift from this kind of 19 seventies, you know, overpopulation population bomb type of, of, of, of discourse over to one in, in, particularly in the developed world where this is going to get very controversial about how do we promote having children because we've got many countries now and you and identify them. quarterly was 61. they're now actually experiencing population decline. countries like like italy, for example, are losing 50000 people year from the population. japan loses about half 1000000 people from their population every year. ah, the above, spain loses about $50000.00 people from their population every year. and we have a whole series of countries in places like eastern europe in which the, the numbers are even more shock. so what we're gonna start seeing as a shift in the conversation, i think in, in a way, from just meeting the challenges of the developing world to start talking about

what we're going to do in terms of population management and countries that are really going to be challenged by aging and shrinking populations by 2030, the entire global baby boom is going to be 65 years old. we're not ready for that. well, let's talk about the aging population and pin. i'm how's that been playing out in india because we're talking about and broader population of older people living longer. that has resort and written mozilla's implications in its own? yeah, that is actually something that's baby. why didn't for those, the population issues because it does not have any social security, it's fine. i'm show. so how about the population? but there isn't much what's being done in india, fully action off the default of the when that they was even conversation beginning about aging and india an arch percentage

of the boat. they choose migration from the village in that it is very big java k giving. so. busy for the aged and i, india has to prepare for making you know, what has coverage a reality for a product in public has systems. we have to be imagining public health systems which recognize your finding that we are and i see you. so g, i think frank mentioned investment for a fiscal support and so on to the aged population is something that we'll have to plan for and investing. i want this points are tend to the

environment because i don't want us to run out of time before getting there. and we're talking really about constraints on resources here. and obviously a huge one is what we're going to see in terms of climate change impacts. a lot of this population growth is going to be taking place in climate vulnerable areas. mean at the very simplest level, more people on the planet means more strained on resources. we're already seeing concerns around food security at kathleen. you worried about the population trans with the i'm very worried about it and i want to disagree with, with daryl a little bit about what's which of the population trends we need to be most concerned about. certainly an aging population is something that we need to plan for, prepare for, and have adequate social security systems in place to, to manage and an aging population. and to think about how we adequately employ a smaller workforce, smaller portion of population and workforce in some places. but i really think that the larger problem is that the population is still growing globally from around

8000000000 today. and it could be up to 14000000000 by the end of the century. hopefully it won't be there, but a lot on what we invest, i will bring in dire overhead because we are talking about the come on and decline . and this is going to happen literally within the next 100 years. so obviously a debate about whether that's a good thing that'll go for don't look any estimate. the says it can be between 8 and 14000000 is but why don't we make it 7 and 14000000 is a 100 percent variation. it's not really much of an estimate. and really when you take a look at it, what railing allow me, lisa, what options of hold on a saw to leave? i let you talk. let me talk. if you take a look at the worked at the, the bill and melinda gates foundation published in the lancet, that was done by a whole global series of demographers. and it was done pre cove. it there, don't even come close to that number. i mean, so i, i really have a lot of questions about how you and does it's modeling. i think this whole

population momentum are in or siri is just that a theory. i think there's a lot of cultural change this taking place around. all of these things that are actually going to clock cause fertility declined to accelerate the population increases, not going to get even close to 10400000 people were going to be probably somewhere between 8 and 9000000000 people, which is not much, far asa further off where we are today, but it's going to be a very different mix of people are going to be highly urbanized and they're gonna be much, much older population evans this year. that's the challenge with truism. both challenges and opportunities. well, we'll have to leave our discussion there for today, but we'll be keeping an eye on how this all plays out over the coming decades and centuries. and thank you to all of our guests. that's kathleen mobile god, darrell bricker, and pin. i'm a treasure and thank you to for watching. you can see this program again any time by visiting our website out there a dot com and for further discussion,

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