now for more than 10 years, but she really rose to fame during the unrest in 2019 because she used to wave a large british flag at many protests. and of course, that was to the authorities, a flagrant provocation because of course, britain was a former colonial rule here. and he tried to give the impression the people were still homesick for colonial rule. now one appeared at the court behind me on wednesday, she was convicted on 2 counts of a legal assembly in january, and the magistrate sentenced her to 32 weeks in jail. that's around about 8 months now. it's not the 1st time that one has been jail. that has happened on 2 previous occasions. she's also been arrested on multiple occasions. but it is a reminder that here in hong kong, the room for political descent is getting narrower all the time. ah,

this is out, is there a these you top stories that's been growing anger and lanka where thousands of people had gathered a prime minister, renaud victrum isinga's office in columbia demanding his resignation. and he half scale the walls or tried to break through the gates. protesters have also entered the state t. v and radio offices, selena security forces have 5 tea gases, the crowds, but they haven't dispatched the speaker. parliament has confirmed that ronald. the commissioner is now the acting president as well as the prime minister. he's taken over from godson by a roger boxer who fled to the mall div the head of the promised resignation. and al fernandez has moved from columbus. he only returned to parliament uh through the sort of back door because the of the one national list, which is a very technical allocation of one parliamentary seed to the, to his party was given to the party and run in a vic grimacing assume that seed. so it's not as if he has a public mandate,

and even when president go toby, a roger boxer with that huge public outcry and his brother, my him, the roger pops a, a resigned. and he brought in, running a bit promising a. there was a massive outright because people said this man has no credibility that he has no legitimacy to abide in a set to arrive in israel and the next few hours on his 1st visit as us president. the white house wants to improve israeli saudi relations. but it is expected to face questions about the killing of serene a block li. tanya's military has condemned the presence of a u. s. destroyer in an area of the south china sea that it claims as its own. beijing said the u. s. s. penfold pass me the parasol islands which china occupies, but also claim by taiwan and vietnam. the u. s. 7th fleet said unlawful and sweeping claims in the south china sea pose. a serious threat to the freedom of the seas. a veteran hong kong progestin known as grandma wong has pleaded guilty to

charges of unlawful assembly. alexander one has been detained on several occasions . she was known for waving a british flag while taking part in the 2019 protest movement. those are you headlines inside stories next? ah hey, 2000000000 people on earth by november. that's the forecast from the united nations . not global population growth is slowing down, and many societies will start getting older. so how do we deal with the challenges ahead? this is in my story. ah

hello there and welcome to the program. i'm the star theater. now the world's population is growing, but at had slowest pace in 70 years. that's the conclusion of you and place a scribble. population forecast. we are generally living longer and healthier lives than previous generations. but this, the report also says, we'll have huge implications for our economy, social welfare systems, and our environment. now, the number of people on our planet is expected to hit 8000000000 by november and then increased by half, a 1000000000 towards the end of this decade. but birth rates, meanwhile, are falling in many countries. in the coming years, global population growth will be concentrated in just 8 nations democratic republic of congo, egypt, ethiopian nigeria, pakistan the philippines, tanzania, and india,

which is expected to surpass china as the most populous nation on the planet next year. the global population is also getting older, on average, a person is expected to live to 77 years by 2050. that's up from 732019. while the director of the united nations population division explains the effects of aging society as worldwide, traditionally, we had many more children and older people to take care of. and now it's switching to a point where, you know, depending on how you define the age groups. the number of older people will eventually be larger than the number children. and just, you know, this is simply cations for rather obvious reasons that you've got a lot of private and public arrangements to care for people that older ages. there are financial implications involved, especially for government budgets, but they're also real concerns about the living conditions for those elderly people

. what will that be like and will that, will there be adequate social protections to ensure that this growing population of older people is not impoverished? well, we'll bring in all of our guests in just a moment, but 1st this report from mitchell and new delhi. next year, india is set to surpass china. and the gap between these 2 nations could increase by 2050. this could help india in many ways. for example, india has been pushing for more representation internationally. experts say that concerns and demands could carry more weight, especially at forums like the united nations. on the economic front, this makes india the world's largest consumer market one that could invite a lot more investment. now, domestically population control has been a contentious electoral issue. experts have advocated for more focus on reproductive rights and justice. this includes improving girls education,

increasing the number of women in the workforce and improving much on health. some of these efforts have been effective because the rate of population growth has slowed down considerably. but there are many challenges. the pandemic has reversed many of these gains. many women have been forced to quit the workforce, and there has been an increase in child marriages. experts say there needs to be more awareness of family planning becomes an issue of choice and not chance and coercion the well, there's obviously plenty to take apart from this report, but i do want to start with where we are at the moment. we're obviously living in a pandemic and i believe the report suggest 15000000 excess death just to the end of 2021, a full in life expectancy. but that all seems to be a bit of a blip given the trends that we're looking at. so we're mostly living longer,

but reproducing less, darrell, you wrote a book called empty planet just a couple of years back. do you still think that that's the way we're headed, you know, and even faster than we were talking about in the book. and really, the focus of all of this we can talk about the pandemic. we can talk about agents, can talk about those kinds of things. but the real hot point in the u. s. and alice's is fertility, and that's really what mc planet is about. and so what's happening to fertility rates was collapsing? well, with the medium fidelity scenario, i believe the u. n is projecting that global population will peak before the end of this century. 2086 at just over 10400000000 people. kathleen, i believe you were very much involved with the last un report on the world's population. so this projection is obviously, it's not all said sooner than the last projection. what's driving that change? well, my understanding is that the global population projections are put together every 2 to 3 years from a number of different national than this. and they haven't,

the long range projections have not changed too much over the years. right now we're at a world population about 7900000000. the medium projection as you, as you mentioned by 2100, we could be at 10400000000, but there's also a very wide range. there's a lot of uncertainty about population trends moving into the future and have a lot to do with the kinds of policies and programs that are in place in countries all over the world. so the u. s. has projected that the range of possible population futures by 2100, are from a low of 7000000 to high as were teen point 8000000000. and it's a very wide range of possibility for how population could grow in the future. and i would argue that that has significant implications for the health and well being of people and for the health and wellbeing the planet. we'll get into some of those trends in just a moment that i want to look at good. the growth that we're seeing on the horizon,

the immediate horizon, 8000000000 people on this planet by november give, will take a year, according to the report, and much of that growth is going to be taking place in india. so when i'm, i was looking at the number of bus per women and it actually seems to have dropped . so what's driving population growth there? so there are a number of factors. the 1st is that education rich, as we all know, is the best conscious that says that goes that getting higher education levels are taking place back in. i believe the government has invested in family planning, but the focus in the high district them in the, in the very uneven situation by much of south india has reached the placement level facility. in fact, 24 states in india and the 6 states. and also india have high rates. the

rates are coming down because the government with new programming is focusing in the tub. the greater so bizarre number of gentle every time a new contraceptive is introduced. that is the fixed price increase globally or within any country ready to increase contraceptives? i introduce new contraceptives some what was happening introduce and lastly, i'd like to think that the the had a much higher passivity rate, let's say amongst muslims. but the muslim facility has decline very sharp, specially in the last decade and growing up as well as the fact that the value education for god more than they used to is what is helping. and finally, age as marriage is increasing,

which also has put in the decline as well as for the full length of the shy and i'm going on despite all of that, though, we are still expecting india to overtake china as well as population wells with related country by potentially next year, and i see that it's already beginning to spare. talk of a permanent fees on the un security council. now given the trends that we're seeing and where this population growth is taking place, darrow let me ask you what kind of political shifts should we be looking for? or i think we should be increasingly looking for population power to drive political power. and what we haven't brought up here is the only continent that in the world in which the risk significant growth are going long term longer term is future. and that's africa because that's really the only continent or i guess region depending on how you want to define it. that really has still above replacement, right? population. both china, i mean the 3, the world's largest,

3 countries, china, india and in the united states or recorded historic lows last year or the last couple of years, further fertility rates. so they're not going to be challenging for global population dominance, whether we're increasingly it's going to be a focus on africa. i want to get into africa in a moment. but because of pin, i'm talking about reproductive rights. i want to also bring in at this point, the un secretary general's response to the population forecasts that we saw. and tony tara says it's an occasion to celebrate the health achievement that of extended life spans and reduce child mortality worldwide. but he did also criticize what he called renewed assaults on a women's right to access health services and to make informed choices on whether or not to even have a baby complications from pregnancy and childbirth are among the leading causes of death for girls between the ages of $15.00 to $19.00 parts of africa and south asia account of 86 percent of maternal deaths worldwide. and last month,

the u. s. supreme court overturned rove s way the landmark pulling that guaranteed abortion rights in poland has also restricted access to the procedure. is obviously boston at chrissy when it comes to reproductive rights. kathleen, how does that then translate into a broader patterns of inequity? i think one of the most fascinating things to think about and to look at when we're, when we're examining population, trying to understand what they tell us about persistent inequities across society. whether that's inequities in reproductive rights and reproduce access to reproductive health care, which is still a huge problem for many people from young women and girls around the world who would like to be able to delay pregnancy or away pregnancy, but don't have access to meaningful information and services that would enable them to achieve reproductive autonomy. there's a very basic fundamental human right for reproductive autonomy that hundreds of

millions of people around the world still do not have. it also tells us a lot about gender inequity and the ways in which girls, hundreds of millions of girls are not able to go to school. the ways in which women do not have are not empowered in the workforce or, or in the household to be able to really realize opportunities in their lives that include motherhood but extending beyond motherhood. so a lot of what is driving persistent, rapid population growth, which as are other guests, as is happening in africa, but also in pockets all across the world. is this indication of a lack of rights in inequities, especially in the health and gender space? well, let's turn to africa now because looking at the numbers, more than half of the growth we're expecting by 2050 is going to come from africa by which time i believe nigeria is that to become the 4th most populous country on the planet. we're looking at decreasing reproduction rates around the wild as

people get richer, but i know there are also some expect to argue that africa is race of decrease is actually less or slower than perhaps some other parts of the developing wild. because culturally, the ideal family size is larger than elsewhere. darrow, what you make of fash wasn't the 1st thing in the u. n. recognizes this in their report. the data from africa are great support, which we don't really know precisely what's going on at africa. but, you know, if, if the past is prologue, i expect that the trends that we see in other parts of the world that you know, are of moved incredibly rapidly in terms of changing their fertility. or it's mainly as a result of culture that the effect of that is going to be significant in africa to we're just having a pretty difficult time measuring. but in places where we do have better data, say for example, like kenya, where they do have good population data that you look at the. so the fertility rate in a place like my roby, that's pretty close to replacement, right?

so the trends that are happening everywhere else world are also happening in africa . we just don't know how fast because it's really hard to get a handle on what's going on for material. so what were some of the demographics in africa? the ones that we do have are also really interesting. and nigeria, i believe 70 percent of its 200000000 people right now are currently under 30. so the population growth that we're seeing there is also a rise in the working age population. this so called demo demographic dividend. that could either be an opportunity for economic growth, potentially a cause for political strife premium. how have you seen that be played out in india? so in india, the main reason they go is because we have 360000000 young people for many, a full productive health page or when they're ready soon. but in india we keep talking about the demographic because we have

a large you the nation. but the problem is that the bidding know is small, it is not a bomb. and so the we know for harvesting the dividend is real close to senior more in after an average some say a little longer. we have to invest in young, deeper education, but more than that job. but the demographic delivering to take place and become a reality. we have been less been jobs at this point of time. that is huge number of young people who are not killed. do even take advantage of the job opportunities that are doing. so if you don't do something very quickly in terms of error trade names and getting a job for young people, we are going to have a demographic design. so right now we are on high, i'm the have an opportunity and i must say that they in the vision it is

very automatic graphic, dividends will happen. so in the india, we are buying this killing and so on. the also need to have more temporary and the greater expense for young people, deception and finding the education, especially installation and reproductive. not just the right suggested. we also need to find the planning temper name in your focus the matter on the line, which is a permanent why young people need access to the temporary and they don't grant funding. they need access to contraception for be earlier in begin to recognize and bring in in school the schools. great. the information on

that i had suspects reality skills is something the aware but give drafting with and i'm i will bring in kathleen hand because i see you nodding and agreeing with much of that kathleen. but do you see this demographic dividend as a potential threat or only an opportunity? well, one of the things that's really critical to understand about the demographic dividend is that it is realized when there is a decline in fertility. that is the thing that triggers a demographic, and so that's a proportion of the population that is in the working age is larger. and as i mentioned, it is a brief period of time i. it requires this decline in fertility. it also requires investments in education and employment opportunities for that brief period of time that we have this really large

a large cohort of the population in the working age. so if it's not simply the demographic dividend does not come simply from rapid population. growth is rapid population growth followed by a period of fertility wind that results in this big chunk of the population in the working age round. and that is really difficult to accomplish. but there are a lot of opportunities for it, but it does require lots of investment in contraceptive options as when i was mentioned in sexuality education and things that advanced gender equity in access to reproductive health care in a wide range of contraceptive methods. and then also the plethora of education and employment opportunities that need to be ready for this very large cohort that is coming into the working at holy shit, but that so i also has some political implications having darlin here. and what do you make of where this could shift things particularly for the developing wound?

well, actually i think that the really interesting thing for me and listening to this conversation is how much this conversation is gonna change over the next 10 to 15 years. because the conversation is going to shift from this kind of 19 seventies. you know, overpopulation population bomb type of, of, of, of discourse over to one in, in particularly in the developed world. ready is going to get very controversial about how do we promote having children because we've got many countries now and you and identify them and report it was 61. they're now actually experiencing population decline. countries like like italy, for example, losing 50000 people year from the population to pan loses about half 1000000 people from their population every year. ah, above, spain loses about $50000.00 people from their population every year. we have a whole series of countries in places like eastern europe in which the numbers are even more shock. so what we're going to start seeing as a shift in the conversation, i think in, in,

away from just meeting the challenges of the developing world to start talking about what we're going to do in terms of population management and countries that are really going to be challenged by aging and shrinking populations by 2030, the entire global baby boom is gonna be 65 years of age or older. oh, we're not ready for that. well, let's talk about this aging population and pin and how's that been playing out in india because we're talking about and broader population of older people living longer. that has result in british mozilla's implications of its own. yeah, that is actually something that's baby. why didn't for those, the population issues because it does not have any social security, it's fine. i'm show. so how about the population? but there isn't much what's being done in india, fully action off the default of the when that they was even

conversation beginning about aging and india an arch percentage of the boat. they choose migration from the village in that it is very big job k giving. so. busy for the aged and i, india has to prepare for making you know, what has coverage a reality for a product in public has systems. we have to be imagining public health systems which recognize your poor, which finding that we are and i see you. so g, i think frank mentioned investment for support and so on to the aged population is something that we'll have to plan for investing. i want this points are 10 to the environment because i don't want us to

run out of time before getting there. and we're talking really about constraints on resources here. and obviously a huge one is what we're going to see in terms of climate change impacts. a lot of this population growth is going to be taking place in climate vulnerable areas. mean at the very simplest level, more people on the planet means more strained on resources. we're already seeing concerns around food security at kathleen. you worried about the population trans with the i'm very worried about it and i want to disagree with, with daryl a little bit about what's which of the population trends we need to be most concerned about. certainly an aging population is something that we need to plan for, prepare for, and have adequate social security systems in place to, to manage and an aging population. and to think about how we adequately employ a smaller workforce, smaller portion of population and workforce in some places. but i really think that the larger problem is that the population is still growing globally from around

8000000000 today. and it could be up to 14000000000 by the end of the century. hopefully it won't be there, but a lot on what we invest, i will bring in dire overhead because we are talking about the come on and decline . and this is going to happen literally within the next 100 years. so obviously a debate about whether that's a good thing that'll go for don't look any estimate. the says it can be between 8 and 14000000 is but why don't we make it 7 and 14000000 is a 100 percent variation. it's not really much of an estimate. and really when you take a look at it, what railing on the label, what options of hold on aside to leave, i let you talk. let me talk. if you take a look at the worked at the, the bill and melinda gates foundation published in the lancet, that was done by a whole global series of artifacts. and it was done pre cove. it there, don't even come close to that number. i mean, so i, i really have

a lot of questions about how you and does it's modeling. i think this whole population momentum are in or serious just that a theory. i think there's a lot of cultural change this taking place around. all of these things that are actually going to clock cause fertility declined to accelerate the population increases, not going to get even close to 10400000 people were going to be probably somewhere between 8 and 9000000000 people, which is not much, far also further off where we are today, but it's going to be a very different mix of people are going to be highly urbanized and they're gonna be much, much older population evans this year. that's the challenge with truism. both challenges and opportunities. well, we'll have to leave our discussion there for today, but we'll be keeping an eye on how this all plays out over the coming decades and centuries. and thank you to all of our guests. that's kathleen mobile god, darrell bricker, and pin. i'm a treasure and thank you to for watching. you can see this program again, any time by visiting our website out there a dot com and for further discussion,

do go to our facebook page. that's a facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and remember, you can also join the conversation on twitter. i'll handle is at a j inside story. for me in the stars it, hey, and the whole team here into my finance. ah ah. and the rip hotel is the oh, tell that i've i've stated in the biggest box you have ever seen had explode, would have taken out the hotel. this was germany. we loved it when it was built and

renamed it even when it was bombed. a major target of the conflict in northern ireland in the late 20th century belfast europa war, hotels on algae 0. we understand the differences and similarities and cultures the cost around. so no matter what lucy winter been using, kind of follows that massive t o l g 0 with all

sake that mm hm. and then the international anti corpse and excellence award boat. now for your hero. ah, i'm rob matheson and doha, the top stories on the al jazeera u. s. president joe biden will arrive and israel shortly for his 1st visit to the med.