of the year and berlin la a complete is the problem worse since, and we see the inflation rate, which double digits the repercussions in terms of inequality and poverty would be devastating. the mexican government seems confidence that promoting sustainable practices and investing in small farmers like those in middle, the eyes that will ultimately be the best way to avert a potential food crisis. the u. n. food and agriculture organization have expressed optimism over projects, likes in bundle vida, or sewing life. the goal here in mexico is to expand the existing program by including more crops and using organic fertilizers. and thus moving the country toward food self sufficiency. experts in mexico see that while subsidies offer a good solution in the short term, the only way to guarantee food security is through economic policies aimed at curbing inflation. manuel rap, hello al jazeera mexico city. ah,

i for a quick check of the headlines here on al jazeera us, president joe biden has wrapped up a 4 day trip to the middle east. started in israel and ended in saudi arabia, where he met several arab leaders. biden says, he won't let the region be influenced by china, russia, or iran. let me stay clearly. if the united states is going to remain an active, engage partner in the militia. as a world grows more competitive than the challenges we face more complex zone, becoming clear to me that how closely in or woven america's interest are with the successes. in the least we will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by china. russia were ran well at the same event, saudi crown prince mom had been sell mom stress, the importance of cooperation with the u. s. and he also said adopting unrealistic

policies on energy will lead to inflation extreme temperatures, of course, while fires to spread across western europe. and north africa out of control, blazes of force thousands of people from their homes and hundreds of died from heat related causes. and in china, electricians are working to maintain power grids that are under strain due to the scorching temperatures. they're nearly 80 cities issued red alerts. this week the temperatures forecast to exceed 40 degrees celsius. a vigils been held in sri lanka to remember those who died in recent political unrest to go to buy a roger packs. i was forced to resign this week as president. after months of anti government protests, hollins begun the process of choosing the next president. russia's military has fired missiles and shells across the ukraine after declaring its plans to ramp up attacks in the east ukrainian officials. yet the 17 civilians have been killed, including 3 in the northeastern city of chief. hungarians have held the protest

against the prime minister, victor all bad. it's the latest misuse of demonstrations against his government. protest began after major taxes come small businesses will ban has been empowered for more than a decade and discontent or inflation is posing a major challenge to his rule. well, those are the headlines that he's continues here now to sierra after counting the cost stated. thanks a lot, bye for now. ah, which is with oh, i

hello there. i'm to start the day and this is counting the cost on al jazeera. you're look at the wealth of business and economics this week, energy price, as a soaring on the u. s. once saudi arabia to pump more oil. so could president jo biden's, re engagement with the kingdom help ease record high prices also this week and japan prime minister for me o key should i wins a new mandate that will he carry on. sions are always economic legacy or is a financial policy change on the cards? and in argentina, anger grows over sky high inflation. can the government rain in soaring prices and has the i m f played a role in the countries economic woes? ah, well, from israel to the occupied west bank. and then finally, saudi arabia jo biden's, 1st visit to the middle east as president comes at a critical time for him. when his approval,

racing is at less than 40 percent ahead of the mid term elections. the war in ukraine has set off a global energy crisis, and biden wants the kingdom to pump more oil in order to bring down prices for americans. feeling the pinch at the pump. while relations between the traditional allies reached a historic low half to the matter of saudi journalist maci in 2018 biden's visit to re add ends to reset these ties and convince opec nations to increase oil production. other issues on the agenda also include security and relations with israel. well, gas prices in the us hit $5.00 a gallon last month. and global oil prices have dropped slightly just below a $100.00 a barrel. that's largely because while production and refining outputs are struggling to keep pace with the rebounding demand, and supply is disrupted as a result of sanctions imposed on russia over the war in ukraine, the opec plus alliance, a world producing countries which includes russia, has agreed to speed up its output increase in july and august,

adding 648000 barrels a day. but their production shortfall is in many member states. saudi arabia and the u. e. the only members who have significant volumes of spare capacity, their estimated to have a buffer of about 3000000 barrels a day together. that's around 3 percent of global oil outputs and almost equivalent to the amount that russian oil could be kept off the market at year end. well, to discuss all of that i enjoyed from london by i've met nettie now, and that is a visiting fellow at the oxford institute for energy studies. thanks so much for joining us on that. i know there's been plenty of speculation about potential increases and well production in the coming months. and do you think that that's actually likely to make any kind of an impact on the well difference, especially before the u. s. midterms is biting, presumably high? yes. so i think that at the moment there's a lot of our discussion, a lot of moving parts in the oil market right now. i biden's visit has put the

focus on spec capacity, and in particular, saudi production as t. and i think that it's important to say from the forefront to inspect, asked, is already been falling in, in the case of ask you last few months and or, you know, open class have added more to the market. so you know that the where jobs available spec as t actually is going to drop anyway, and that's been priced in by the market. and where we really rece reach about to point to 2300000 barrels a day, or spec as t by august. as opec plus continue of the increases. so as i said, that's already being priced in. i think the other point a member, remember actually there's a lot of uncertainty in both the demand and the supply side on the demand side, or the difference in opec's own forecast or all demand growth this year is, is, you know, is actually, is different by about 2000000 barrels a day to most of a consensus forecasts, you know,

taking into account the demand side risks are. but i think really the big issue is relate to what the supply side uncertainty in a world where a spare capacity begins to fin. and do you have ongoing policy discussions with regards to sanctions on russian oil with proposals around a price cap and really kind of highlights the confusion that exists at the moment in terms of our you know, what the next steps are, were at a turning point and and even tons of russian supply losses what the estimates are, are also very wide. and you talked about uncertainty around supply. just looking at the numbers, i believe saudi arabia's total capacity stands about $12000000.00 barrels per day. how long can it sustain hunting oil like that and what does it take to to produce that huge amount? saudi really, you know, it's, it's, it's opec plus quarter of august is going to be $11000000.00 barrels day. you know,

they've only really produced that amount briefly towards the end of 2018. and we've seen them reached $12000000.00, i think just for one month and 2020 during the height of a price war. russia are so really, i think that the debate about can saudi reached 12000000, you know, and, and question is going to be how sustainable can they, you know, sustainable production as to over time is the issue. however, i think really misses the point. i think what the market, you know, it's what the market leads and the market believes saudi messaging on their took maximum, sustainable cost here, talk to 1212 and a half. and the question is really, if saudi what the testers would they want to give away that information premium, which really holds strategic value for the kingdom. and, and you have to also take into accounts operational constraints of maintaining that production as t over time. and then obviously the question of spec asti,

as i mentioned with all of these supply side risks that exist in the market, you know, do you want to actually, you know, that there's a trade off that has to be taken into account the market as well. and at any increase in oil production where presumably a require consensus from opec mendez, how likely is that and, and do you see a future for russia within opec last year? so i think the next meeting focus plus really august's will be an important one because really that's when they'll have an wound. you know that the, the cuts that they announced in the mid 2020, or, and i think really the opec plus is going to look at trying to understand or be, know, they'll have to also understand, you know, what the base, what balances will look like for the rest of this year, and as i mentioned beginning there is a big difference of view between opec opec's own view of oil demand growth and

those of other agencies. and, but at the same time, i don't think that russia will be, you know, they'll be a wedge between russia and saudi was another class. the, the cycle of thinking is much more long term with in opec last. and you know, and it's not going to respond to a, any short term political cycle or do political had when that may occur. and then just taking a bit of a step back here, we're looking at an energy crisis that isn't solely driven by opec production. so what are the other challenges that have gotten us to this point? so yes, iraq, this is an energy crisis. it's not just, you know, it's not just an issue of an oil market in terms of, you know, what's happening with that, you know, i mean, the russia crisis is also highlighting issues with gas. you know, you're seeing the, the, the opening of a new new,

new front and the conflict with regards to cutting back on contract volumes of natural gas applied to europe. the europe, european economy, as is closely watching, whether our natural gas supply returns from watering one following after maintenance. and that's having an impact really upon some of the central bank decision making as they decide whether or not to increase interest rates. and likewise refining as t has been a big issue as well. you know, we've seen about 3 to 3 and a half 1000000 barrels a day. we're finding as t shut since co bid started. and that's also taking place against the background of really, you know, what's going on in china as well. so when china has not been exporting much petroleum products as, as last year. and so really the in own you, it's not just an issue in the group market, but also across the energy value chain. so you'll see constraints in the refining

capacity system. you'll see record levels of prices for gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. and really, that's part of the, the, the coven returned demands and suppliers and been able to catch up. and so really, these bottlenecks and constraints are not just limited to what's happening in the oil market. but there's a more of an interconnection numbers taking place between different fuels and market. so, you know, seeing, you know, policy intervention. and i think this is what the interesting thing about the situation oil and our market says, well, the role of government, lucy, and interesting kinds ahead are many there a visiting fellow at the upset institute energy study. thanks so much for joining us here and counting the cost ah, knowledge of hands up a house, elections were seen as a referendum on the prime minister's leadership. and the landslide victory of the

ruling party and its coalition partners has bolstered for me. o key should are just 2 days after the assassination of shins or abi. the result means that key should i may now have the power to push fiscal policies, including his so called new form of capitalism, which aims to revive the economy. the agenda includes investing in human resources, science and innovation, increasing the number of start ups and promoting green and digital transformations . but the prime minister has also been under pressure to stick with parts of abe's economic plan. critics, a big spending packages to cushion the impact of the pandemic and ultra low interest rate policies of sent the yen to to decade blows. and could even accelerate inflation. arby introduced his economic policy back in 2012 in an attempt to jumpstart japan's economy. out of 2 decades of stagnation through the so called 3 arrows of his name sake, alban nomics policy may include an ultra loose monetary policy and a form of negative short term interest rates to make it cheaper for consumers and companies to borrow money and to spend pumping money into the economy by funding

infrastructure projects, for example, or giving incentives to companies like tax breaks and structural reforms, adding more women and migrants into the workforce than boosting the country's job market to push economic growth. well, joining us now from singapore is marcelle tilly. aunt is a senior japan economist at capital economics. thanks for joining us marcel. that was really quite the landslide victory there. i'm curious. do you think he should or now has a, a free hand to do what he wants in terms of the economy or already had a pretty strong majority before and he doesn't have the 2 thirds majority term are be heard just few years ago. but yes, yes, i mean, he hasn't elusive parliament. he has a free hand. i think the key is whether he can overcome vested interests and that the powerful business lobby in terms of pushy through any, any reformer tense. and the evidence so far suggest that the he has said he's not

willing to offend or a lot of people. marcel this all obviously comes in the wake of the very snappy banded are the nomics policies. and that has had mixed successes. that what do you make of it and, and do you think he should, i will depart vastly from that. i think i've been on that that probably the biggest achievement of i been nomics has been both an improvement in, in corporate profit margins, which was triggered by the, the corporate governance reform support been issued by arbor as well as a shop increase in the day before spots, patient of women and elderly, which ensured that employment actually kept rising to, to, for such like at highs to oust bought ob, his terms despite the, the shrinking of the population. but i think the, the, i can a seal off of, i've been nomics, has been very sluggish productivity roles. and unfortunately, even tailwind from a rising labor force participation right now seems to be fading. so listen,

elderly people on, on not terms staying an appointment for much longer us and at the same time productivity growth is still very weak and this is no clear policy by the current government to improve that. so i think that the next few years are going to be quite challenging for japan's economy in terms of achieving strong g d. p growth. well, much of an annex, especially when you start talking about the participation in the. c workforce is also about addressing inequality. i understand there is this talk of some sort of new capitalism under kinda do you think that addressing inequality will still be a priority for him? well, he unfortunately back paddled on plans to raise the tax on capital gains and dividends that suggests that his, his initial focus has already been bolted down. he has suggested in lifting the minimum wage quite aggressively. but that was something that started on the prime

to stop we already so it's not a shift in policy. so overall i would think he's pretty much on he's pretty much stick with the status or this normally shift in policy on the agenda at the moment . well, we are also looking at a very different japanese economy. now, given everything that's happened with the pandemic, given the rising inflation that was saying in the n is now what a 20 year le, do you think inflation is still going to be the focus that it is the key it out that it was the army? unfortunately, it is, the deflation is still a threat. i mean, we are currently seeing pretty rapid price stains, but as it is worth salting, the yen has as depreciated at the the most rapid pace since the early as the asian financial crisis. and obviously the, the massive supply shortages out there and even that, which is going to get inflation just above feet, the back fence 2 percent targets. and with that, with energy inflation already starting to slow, it will felt hold back below the, the troops to target next year. so. so while deflation is probably not,

not the longer major threat, i think that the back japans 2 percent inflation target will remain on the reach falls for the foreseeable future. will speaking of different challenges, japan also has huge public that that in fact the highest public debt to g d p ratio in the industrialized world. how do you see his approach to that? i think the, the strong faith never see at the moment is providing a bit of a tell them to the public finance is by boosting tax revenue. so we had the, the ministry of financing reporting just last week. the tax revenue, the previous year, searched by 10 percent to it to a fresh record high. so that gives a sheet a window to repair the public finance is that the key question is how, how willing he is to, to not spend the windfall. i mean, we saw last year he implemented a huge supplementary budget last year, a quoted to about 6 percent of g d, p. a. he already announced another admits the small supplementary budget at the

very start of the current fiscal year. so that it remains to be seen whether he and he's willing to, to not spend the windfall and flash spending now that the economy's opening up again after the pandemic. interesting times indeed, marcel tele on the senior japan economist, capital economics. thanks again for sharing your thoughts with us here on out there . well, while rising inflation didn't seem to discourage japanese verses from supporting the ruling party, the rising cost of living is challenging argentina's government. thousands of origins marched in the capital last week, urging the government to resign, while rejecting ins, loans which come with tough conditions. may inflation exceeded 60 percent, and the value of the pacer has fallen after the country swore in a new economy minister, theresa by reports. now from one is areas it's one of the most challenging jobs in the country. managing argentina's economy in times of trouble would i, you know,

i was sworn in as economy minister by president of the firm and this see who the promising to jumpstart argentina's economy. some of them and feel like a little mark and we are convinced argentine is direction has to do with our fiscal management following the president's economic program. and of course, boosting argentina is exports and reevaluating our currency, which is achieved with more reserve. i mean me showing that it is, but doing so won't be easy, but that keith is replacing marketing of man. he was in charge of the tough negotiations of over $40000000000.00 with the international monetary fund. even though the negotiations prove successful, guzman was constantly attacked by the powerful former president and no vice president christina, for an under the cushion who did not agree with the handling of economy. i didn't see any problem with a very high inflation around 5 percent among high poverty and exchange rate

controls that have a huge impact in the economy. a changing the ministry of economy generates a lot of uncertainty, not country like argentina, and that uncertainty increases the price of the us dollar on the streets, and that in most cases means more inflation. the argentines are used to living in crisis. they have survived one every other decade. people on the streets, i watching the latest developments very carefully. we amended what you said. there is a lot of uncertainty. we don't know which direction we are going right or left, whichever. but what and teens need is the direction and saturday. we don't have one . pensions have been running high between president went the firm and these. and christina, for months by becky appointment is seen as a win for the far left leaning faction in government who are close to their is president and critical of the agreement with the i. m f. remember it, but we want to see that he did populism maids money to come the people down and

there is no money. they have no money to give away. now whatever they will give, they will have to print, and that will increase inflation even more. we have a huge problem, aren't see a way to make it work right now, but that he has a difficult task ahead. she has to fight inflation, generate jobs, and increase the countries reserves without displeasing argentina's vice president who for many or has now more power than the president himself. very so i'll just see that when aside is well joining us now on skype from and the list here in spain is humana. blanca, she is the research director and head of america's at risk insights at verisk maple croft. thanks so much for your time today humana. we're looking at obviously skyrocketing inflation, argentina, something expected to hit what 80 percent this year. obviously, we're seeing inflation become a problem in many different parts of the well, but why specifically, are we seeing such a huge rise in argentina?

well, i mean, one of the big problems of argentina is that it's been struggling with inflation now for several years. right. and this is accelerating quite quickly. on the back of 2 things. number one is domestic policy, right? a very expansionary monetary policy. if we just look at the last month between may june and early july, the central bank added the equivalent to 1.4 percent of g d p in money being printed right. so this is, this is a huge problem for the country. and of course, we have now the 2nd added issue, which is russia's invasion of ukraine and the impact it's had on a fuel and also on fertilizers. which obviously argentina being a huge agricultural power house is also impacted by. well, given these central banks decisions, how do even begin to tackle inflation when we're in the situation that we're in now,

one of our agency does main economy preowned as a political one actually, of the reason the political will to tackle the problems. the central bank is not independent and the executive is embroiled in a power struggle with in the ruling coalition. so, you know, part of the problem, the policy problem is that there are no policies. and the policies that have been announced and repeated this week are no convincing markets that argentina is capable to get its economy back in order. and so any, the question is, you know, how much worse can the country get out before there is the need for it? some shock measures, because unfortunately, you know, argentina is heading a for another argentina, sal crisis. will you talk about this political talis? struggle is there in the space for the new economy minister to do what needs to be done at all, or is there not the autonomy for how to operate in that way?

well, i don't think it's even an issue of autonomy because i don't think the previous economy minister, happy autonomy either. and one of the key issues with the new appointment is that it wasn't an appointment made out of choice for the you know, the best economy minister that the country could get. but it was rather the choice based on who could precedent fernandez. and he's v p kirschner agree on. so it was kind of a, a, you know, the decision was made on a reaching a truce rather than, you know, looking for the economy minister, who could leave the country out of a crisis. and in fact, you know, for anyone who followed the situation in the country, there were several other potential candidates that came before minister of attack. he's so even just but when taking office and she's taking office with a,

an impression that she doesn't have the authority or the independence to implement even the agreement that argentina has reached with the i m. s. well, i want to turn to the i m f because there's obviously a huge disagreement on how that relationship should be approached even within the road in coalition. so what do you make of that going forward? what should we be looking for? well, i mean, this will be the clear bone of contention between president ford under some v. p kirschner. you know, as i mentioned earlier, i don't think that urgency has problem is solely economic, but it's political one, on the i m. s. will be a very useful scape goat in any crisis that comes next. and you know, the agreement with the i m f itself, the country is already, you know, failing to deliver on it, you know, bringing down the fiscal deficit to 2.5 percent of g d p this year. now, you know, it's the stuff of pipe dreams and the reality is that, you know, the, i have,

i have, has a limited room for maneuver because argentina problem is the i m f problem and the i m f doesn't want to get burned once again in the region let alone with argentina, but if the government in one osiris is unable to resolve its internal problems, then of course the i m f is a great candidate to become becomes the culprit argentina's. next problems he meant blanca there from various maple craft. thanks. so much for sharing your expertise with us on out there. thank you. all that's our show for this week. do you get in touch with us by tweeting me at the stars the at hey, and do use the hash tag, ha, ctc. when you do or drop us an email? counting the cost out there a dot net is our address. there's also more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash p t c. that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports,

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a difference between donald trump and joe bite for them, it's fine. we meet with global news makers. i'm talk about the store restock matter on al jazeera, the heart wrenching goodbyes, loved ones, no knowing when they were united to get women and children heading west to relative safety, often leaving ben behind among them. foreigners also trying to give out train rise of a fee, but it's on a 1st come 1st serve basis here at the bus station. they're only a few rides available and that's only due to surrounding villages. so people like for me and rose, now need to find another way to get out of the city. but for now they like many others, would have to reach in, hoping tomorrow is a better day. ah .