which are usually hard to apprehend. flying over the creeks, the devastation caused by all bunkering is massive. hidden under cree copies, the old thieves are putting, finishing touches to this facility capable of refining tens of thousands of gallons a day. and instead of using firewood, then our steel gas to distill the cold military commanders say that a 100 of these illegal distilleries scattered across the oil producing delta in addition to bleeding the economy dry. the operations also damage the environment because they are not properly equipped to process crude oil. the blunder of nigeria oil has left the country unable to beat it or pick quarter activity. so going on, as i speak to you now as so much collaboration guerra with the communities to make sure that there was a board in the process of protecting his assets. at the company looks up to the renewed clamp down to return to profitability. but with all thieves,

continuously changing their tactics. it could be a long while before that will happen. how many degrees al jazeera in nigeria is all producing, delta? ah, this is our, this era, these other top stories now she at lee them up. tyler asada is calling on all the rockets to join protesters camp inside parliament, a support a storm, the building on saturday, the 2nd time in a week. they're demanding an overhaul of the political system and the constitution arrival group, known as a coordination framework is holding counter protests against what it calls a suspicious qu, as heavy security in and around the green zone to keep the 2 factions apart with other while head is that those counter demonstrations in baghdad and sent this update. both of them have different agendas. they have different variations

and have different plans at these protests as it say that they are, have come here to day, as they say, to preserve and protect the legitimacy of this state, the legitimacy of the state. and that he did do to regain or to retain the legitimacy of the parliament that is occupied by supporters as they called them. they also say that the, the are rejecting the qu by another support us. but whether or not they will stay on like also the supporters at we don't know for certain did they say that there is still waiting for instructions from their leaders to leave or stay? the 1st ship carrying ukrainian grain has now left the port of the desert on the an international deal signed last month. the rezoning is at sierra leone flagged vessel carrying more than $26000.00 tons of corn. this ship the merchant vessel rosanna,

is loaded with 2 commodities in short supply corn and hope. hope for millions of people on the world will depend on the smooth running of ukraine sports to feed their families. the ships departure is the 1st concrete result of the black sea grain initiative mia margin to has extended the state of emergency for another 6 months. it's been in place since the military deposed the government of anson sushi and detained her last year. as her headlines, the news continues here now to sierra after counting the cost. ah ah,

hello, i'm adrian said again. this is counting the cost on al jazeera. you'll look at the world of business and economics this week, joining the fight against inflation. europe raises interest rates for the 1st time in more than a decade, but we'll finish a work and what's at risk. also this week, as interest rates rise for the highly indebted countries like italy could get into more trouble, will the european central bank come to its rescue? and european nations agree to reduce the amount of natural gas they use, but will that help them stay warm? this winter, if russia stops all deliveries ah, europe is struggling to put out the fires, hurting its economy on several fronts, spots it's the rising cost of heating homes and feeding families. that's worrying many europeans,

probably the most. annual inflation of the european union reached almost 9 percent in june. the last time it was that high, the euro, which a shed by 19 of the box countries didn't exist. the european central bank has raised interest rates for the 1st time in more than a decade to try to rein in price increases. the cost of borrowing was increased by a launch and that expected half percentage point that takes the easy b's key interest rate to 0, ending the blanks a chair experiment with negative interest rates. june inflation was more than the bank had predicted. the euro fell to parity with the dollar for the 1st time in 20 years last week, or the banks president christie law. god explained the easy bees decision to hike rate sluggard also gave few signals about what comes next. economic activity is slowing, rushes and justified aggression towards ukraine is an ongoing drug on growth.

the impact of high inflation on purchasing power, continuous supply constrains and higher uncertainty or having a dampening effect on the economy. firms continue to face higher costs and disruptions in their supply chains. although they are tentative signs that some of the supply bottlenecks are easing taken together. these factors are significantly clouding the outlook for the 2nd half of 2022. and beyond. will the bank also introduced a new policy tool to shield some of the blocks most indebted nations from excessive borrowing costs, the transmission protection, instrument, or t p. i is intended to stop disorderly moves in government bond markets and prevent euro spreads from widening the gap between italian, a german benchmark yields a closely watched gauge of financial stress, grew to as much as 2.38 percentage points. now the tool allows the bank to buy the

bonds of countries experiencing an unwarranted deterioration in financing conditions. and by doing so on prices go up and they're yield down. and that in theory caps interest costs. but it wouldn't offer protection if the easy be determined that higher borrowing costs resulted from poor government decisions. or to discuss all of that. joining us from london, melanie to bono a senior europe economist at pantheon, macroeconomics an independent economic research firm. good tele with us up melanie . so the easy bees move makes sense. it's well behind its peers, though. is it too little, too late? easy be raised, bates, i 50 basis points last week, taking a ski deposit rate from minus point $5.00 to 0. this was more than most of us had expected and it's probably not enough. no. so we look or an extra $75.00 basis points of hikes. it be now and the end of the year,

taking that deposit rate to point 75 percent or i but higher res, it's feared, are going to push the euro block into recession. how far and how fast you think the e c b should be moving rates right now? well, at this point and the year is only quantum who's heading into recession, whether it is, if he was hiking or it's or not. after the panic, when it seemed like suppliers, she is where a bating are the warren and ukraine broke out. so and as a result, the, the russian gas supplies have dwindled and we got heading into europe. and this is affecting industry, especially in the likes of germany. and italy, which are highly reliant on those gas supplies. so we force all and ears on recession either with or without further e, c, b, inflation across the eurozone. melody is running a minute, is, wasn't about as quickly as it is across the us. why is it so much harder for the e. c. b to get inflation under control than it is for the 3rd. i wouldn't

necessarily say it's harder both are struggling at the moment because inflation is high in both cases. but at this point, a lot of what is driving the inflation rate, higher is energy, and that is something that easy, big cannot control. so interest rate hikes will eventually damp and inflation because they will convince that will lead to lower demand for certain goods. convincing firms to stop by raising prices, but in the meantime, it's energy that's driving inflation and that will continue, especially if, as we saw this week with the surgeon gas prices, again, the energy rate will remain higher than otherwise would have been the case 0 go up from the early games that it made after the e. c. p is decision on our rates. to what extent boat could a depreciating euro actually be better for the euro zone economy? depreciating euro helps exporters. so when the euro depreciates against you, as dollar european goods are relatively more, it's more cheaper for

a head to given price. so that means the exporters benefit because their goods are more competitive on the global market, or to what would it take for the euro to make up a to make gauged to become stronger? well, at this point b, so we expect the euro to depreciate a bit further because of the friendship. so that's because the u. s. federal reserve bank will high, i more than easy over the coming months. but we do see this turning. so in september where r u. s economist expects us of asian to make a turn and the fed to start hiking by less than it's done in recent months. that is when we will see the dollar lose out compared to the euro, will prussia only euro's own economy. get worse if russia carriers through its threat to cut off suppliers or severely reduce gas suppliers to europe. we expect that russia will close the caps fully before year end,

and probably before europe manages to phillips gas levels or gas applies to the intended rate. that is by 9 to protect come, 80 percent, sorry, come november. and that will be hard. it will hurt, especially like i previously mentioned countries like germany and italy, which are highly exposed to this russian gas. but it's not something that europe can't adapt to. so a lot of european countries have already ramped up cold production. and it seems also that nuclear production may come back on the line in germany or discussion. surfers been pretty pessimistic. relevant. is there anything positive to say right now about the euro's own economy? tourism is expanding at breakneck speed. it, of course, took a large hit during the pandemic and now it's on a tear. so if tourism wasn't rebounding, it to the extent that it was now, we probably see a much deeper recession in the years own in the coming to quarters than we currently expect. mentally, there are concerns about how higher borrowing costs are gonna affect indebted

nations. that's something i want to talk to you about a little more in just a moment. stay with us. we'll italy is among both countries. it has the 2nd highest debt burden in euro's own, and raising interest rates too quickly could high capitalize debt and make it harder for it to pay. it comes to the country faces political uncertainty of the resignation of prime minister mario rocky will get more into the details on how the t p i works, which we told you about in a few moments. but 1st, let's hear how some italians, a coping was come. i felt for 4 year olds, what i was selling to before. you know what they tell me here to close. so all of these price increases are paid for by of the small, medium business owners going on. i'm anxious if you try to not turn on the air conditioning take the car less, but the still anxiety because you have to think twice about doing things that were normal before. so we simply need to pay more attention than we have up here. it's impossible to get ahead this way between tax bills and everything else. it's

impossible to get ahead. i walked in the morning until late more than 10 hours and for what to pay the bill. so let's get back to melanie about a senior year. if economist, a pansy and micro economics. so melanie concerned growing over it to return to the years, i'm christ just broke out in 2010. what, what are the chances that get services cost will run? and so because e, c, b is hiking up interest rates, government bond yields were rise in italy and especially because now the tv has ended its program and no longer hoover in all the new get the italian government issuing. so any markets or just been tor buying that, that are much more price sensitive and will require higher premium to buy the debt . in turn, the government is still issuing you debt because it is having to spend a lot more on trying to appease while trying to offset the rising cost of living. and because now of course has to invest in the green transition and it has to and more of the defense because of the risk that's on the doorstep. so it's spending

a lot more, it's having to issue new debt. and therefore, debt service in cost will rise and the debt burden will rise. do we think it's going to lead to a new crisis? no, we don't think so. the debt is more manageable now, and we think that the relationship between government bond yields and none of that is much more benign than it was in 2012 plus. if we were heading in that direction, the c, b would be much more willing to come to the rescue for the now compared to the intrinsic just of 2012. all right, so do you think that the p p i will work if indeed it is even used. you think it's going to be yours and is it just me or have the details been left deliberately vague? it's not just you only yesterday, so easy be president christine le guard said that they will not tell us everything about the t p. i am, we do have some information and that's basically that the t p i is like a form of asset purchase program. but of course, not exactly like you ease, so it's in simple terms, a promise, find it easy be that it will by

a certain government bonds. if things that bond yields are rising much more quickly than the fundamentals would imply. there is a number of conditions on there such as viscous inability and, and it really just depends how strictly and easy reinforces those conditions. whether or not it will be helpful for countries like italy or not. it's very easy to see is on the governing council members warning putting up headline signals that they don't want to support some countries because of past the sustainability were is. and so who knows if it will help and who knows of it new. okay, christina, god declined to say whether italy is actually on the list given the political crisis. good. could italy even meet t p ice conditions? i'm guessing from what you were saying earlier that it possibly could. and what does all of this mean for investors? so at this point on, italy probably does meet the conditions yet,

but of course we're heading for staff elections. so as we do had for snap collections, we expect italian bond yields to rise, and that's based on political uncertainty. and that's one of the things of the t p i crack conditions set out. if the bon yards are rising and spreads are widening because of political yet self inflicted political uncertainty, then it wouldn't warrant the use of t b. i. so we'll have to wait and see whether or not at this point, what happens in the coming months, we'll need these if you to step in. so what's next? we're to lose economy. melanie asked to draw his exit, why is it in such a mess? and is it at risk to think of even crashing out of the euro's home? we do not see a risk that italy will crash as a deer, as own. and none of the political parties are offering that pern they've learned from the mistakes of before. and they would like to stay in the euro, even the most are right wing parties and, and so we do not see a risk of that. as it happens my

a drug didn't resign and we are heading for staff collections. does that change the outlook for italy? we don't think so. so for us, either fiscal report was an upside risk to our forecast. the snap election mews that further fiscal support this year is highly unlikely. and that's not because of willpower, but it's more because of logistics. the snap election is being held on the 25th of september, coalition politics mean in italy. t. it will take time for a governing coalition to form, let alone that new government agreeing on new fiscal aid. so because fiscal support was an upside for, for cause before now it's no longer there and we still expect the italian economy to enter recession by q for this year. our forecast currently point to growth of 2.7 percent for this year. the whole which is lower than what the government has recently forecast. really good to talk to melanie many, thanks to you for being with us on counting the course course. thank you. weren't any ah, no, it was seen as an act of solidarity in the face of what you country say is energy

blackmail by russia. the locks watered down plan to cut gas consumption by 15 percent comes as moscow announced another count to supply, sending prices up once again. russian energy from gas prom says that it's reduced gas flows into germany to allow walk on a turbine on the lord stream one pipeline. but you leaders say that move is politically motivated. al 0 is barbara and go per reports. the energy crisis slimming over europe dominated the meeting of e ministers in brussels, cutting gas consumption ahead of winter, the best and only way to reduce eas, reliance and russian energy fortified. b. a sam correspond stay 15 percent cut in our usual gasoline, sumps and it be in the beginning of august and the end of march. that's why we have pointed to this percentage as the target on member states should stay forward. russia is set to further reduce supplies to the north stream pipelines. blaming

a technical fault at one of their stations, something e and ministers disappeared. e leaders say there's no technical reason for the latest reduction of the short national game. as of today, there is no solution to the ongoing equipment issues at the point here, they are compress the station. we have, there is no solution whatsoever yet. seems that saying nothing. they're trying to find solutions, but there are milan, but come out as the western russia exchange economic blows in response to russia's war in ukraine. european leaders say moscow is not a trustworthy partner. the wind is coming ah, and we don't know how cold it will be, but what we know for sure that the and will continue to play his her da da games her in misusing and like, mailing her by ha ha, ga supplies, ukraine's president for lottie mass zalinski says, europe is

a ready at war with russia, and gas is a new front line, or is he and his bride? all this is done by russia on purpose to make it as difficult as possible for europeans to prepare for winter. and this is an open guess war that russia is waging against the united europe. this is precisely how i should be perceived. and they don't cable happen to the people or how they will suffer from hunger g to the blockade reports, or from winter cold and poverty, or from occupation. these are just different forms of terror, yet wellness dust up. nearly half of all the gas europe needs comes from russia. the supply is now down to a relative trickle come winter. if european countries don't have enough supplies toward up and time rations will almost certainly mean a struggle to heat homes and power cities. barbara and gave her out to sara. voluntary agreement may become mandatory if supplies reach crisis levels. however,

some countries not connected to the used gas pipelines such as island, malta, and cyprus would be exempt. states like baltic nations that are heavily reliant on gas for electricity can also avoid the reductions, and it's the same for any country that fills it's gas storage tanks to the required 80 percent level, as well as critical industries and supply chains that use gas as a feedstock now an e u official said that hungary was the only member state that opposed the gas reduction agreement. let's discuss all of this further with michael bradshaw, professor of global energy at warrick business school. he joins us now from coventry in the u. k. michael godaddy with us once again. what do you make of this deal? how a businesses factories households going to be affected? and as you suggested, it's a compromise. i mean, a bargain has been struck. there's lots of exemptions and we must wait and see what happens if we get to a physical shortage of supply. if you look at the kind of measures that propose,

i think for, for households, it really means that they are hoping on what we might call behavioral change. that people will take measures to reduce their gas consumption in the winter. i mean, these things are not necessarily hard to do turning down thermostats in improving the efficiency of your house in terms of installation of windows, not eating rooms you don't need. and so for the industry is much harder, particularly the, the energy intensive industries is already a degree of demand destruction as a consequence of high price. but most countries probably have in place a, c, a system that will, will actually say to key industries you need to reduce or, or stop operating to save gas. so that gas can be used to generate electricity and heat households. it's being described as a show of resolve a show of solidarity among you nations. but are they really united in the energy war with russia? well, obviously what president could hopes to do with dr. discord and disunity among european member states the fact that they've reached the agreement is

a positive. but as you report, as a suggested, it comes with various caveats. exemptions. the other other concern among member states is what more might call commission creek. that actually the european commission is overstepping its mandate here. because that responsibility for energy security and energy mix is actually something that lies with national governments, not european union. i think it will become it. we really will be tested if we get to this emergency situation where they try to make it mandatory until then it's a voluntary agreement and we must wait to say i given the long list of exemptions, could european nations still fill the gaps left? if russia does turn off the taps completely, especially if, if europe faces an exceptionally cold winter, i think the short answer is no to simply not enough gas available in global markets . because most of the, the other gas will have to come with liquefied natural gas. and it's not just whether or not there's a, there's a mild winter in europe. we've been relatively lucky in europe that the chinese

demand has been depressed as a consequence of cove. it, if we have a hard winter in the northern hemisphere, that effects asian l. n. g demand will be in competition with asia to try and secure the available, flexible, and n g. the simply not enough flexible energy to cover the gap. so where does all of this leave? the use plans to ultimately win itself off? russian gas. while it's going to take time there's, there's no question about that at the back to back story here is that the global gas mark is exceedingly tight. and european union is, is wanting to pivot away from pipeline gas to rely on, on, on seaborne liquefied natural gas. and the market there is going to be tight, probably the next 2 or 3 years at least. and therefore, this is not going to be an easy thing to do and it's going to come at a very high cost. so driving down demand is, is a critical element and truck, but trying to find alternative supplies is going to take time. other options for

nations in warmer climes, southern parts of europe to share a spare capacity with, with nations in the north. there are problems here with the gas pipeline network. may 1 of the reasons a spain is, is, is exempt. actually, although spain has a lot of l n, g import capacity, the pipeline links between spain and france around the developed and therefore, the gas that spain might have an offer to northern europe cannot actually make it into european markets. in a previous gas dispute between russia, ukraine did result in european union investing in greater connections within this gas market. but it's not that straightforward to move the gas. it's equally not that straightforward to move the gastro neurology terminals because the pipeline systems based on moving lots of gas from russia. and what is all of this mean for, for householders, like, like, you and me, a bill is going to stay high. now for the foreseeable future, is this cost of living crunch due to the rising cost in heating costs is going to

continue. unfortunately, think it is. i think we have to break ourselves for further increases in price this morning. i actually just received my gas bill and i can't believe it. it's so high, it must be a mistake, i'm saying to myself. so i think we're going to see further increases and greater pressure on government to protect the tech consumers. and that's not going to go away. and on that rather gloomy note her professor. we'll leave it many thanks. deed for be with us. that's michael bradshaw there in coventry a you and broke a deal clearing the way for the export of millions of tons of ukrainian grain is expected to help ease food prices and the global stay full shortage. but getting harvest from the farm to the table has become a dangerous job in ukraine. since the russian invasion began al jazeera john henry reports now from the village of christ name. in a wheat field, north of keep a de mining experts sweeps for the weapons of war. the

mind detector finds remnants of a cluster bomb. it slow going, but these workers need to clear a path before forming combines can reap the wheat from a war time harvest. they are among a 1000 de mining experts across ukraine, racing to avert a global food shortage. over the last they hired me. we have found a fragment of class emission and a grin aid from an r p g 7, which is onyx floated. when the war began, this farm was attacked by russian aircraft artillery and cluster bombs. workers had to replace tractors, trucks in barns before they could bring in the harvest. you'll know isn't idea of 311. you can see they're burned and destroyed by selling artillery and john strike medium. she has good. as farmers scrambled together, wheat, corn, and sunflower oil, russia and ukraine have reached a tenuous agreement to allow 20000000 tons of trapped,

ukrainian grain to leave from black c ports through so called safe channels. but with all the dangers of transporting the crop of 2022 in a war zone. for now, this far miss storing wheat in these containers. weight is this symbol of ukraine, that yellow and blue flag represents a field of wheat beneath a sky of blue. and for ukraine, the problem is getting this wheat out of the ports. but for farms like this, the problem is overcoming all of the obstacles to get it harvested in the 1st place . the harvest of war has been tough on farms across ukraine. russia has left its signature on these cluster bombs. let us know what might be in your market ogle, but as he's got him here, we can see the mark of rational forces. since the beginning qua her work. our employees font these on our field season. this year she threw the operator, not the machinery of war rushes. the machines on the far

end is summer winds to close, the race to bring in this year's crop grows more urgent every day. john henderson, al jazeera krazny ukraine, and that's all show fault this week. don't forget if you wanna get in touch with us about anything that you've seen, you can tweet me. i'm at a finnegan on twitter. please use the hash tag a j c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of al jazeera dot net is our e mail address. there is, of course, more few online at al jazeera dot com slash c t. c. that takes you straight to our page and then you'll find individual reports, links, an entire episodes for you to catch up. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian finnegan for the whole team here and so hop. thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is next ah

and the 19th sixty's was a period of change around the world, including the middle east and north africa, and annette. we dreamed of the fair and democratic society, which means of a revolution. the 1st of a 3 part series out is they were well explored, the regional events, people, and forces that shake the decade. i don't, one of our dreams were many. we started with great dreams, but ended up with sad setback. the sixty's in the arab world politics on al jazeera, bold, and i'm told stories from asia and the pacific on al jazeera ah.