hi, prizes and shortages nigeria bunch 30 percent of his gas every year or so. it could be capitalizing on developed economy fall, turn it years. the russian supplies industry analysts say the current global guest supply challenges on paternity to grow the sector. i think we should be talking a lot more about, you know, increasing the l l n g l and your portrayed that we have i, you know, done really talking about the pipes. but that seems to be, will go make for coastal. but the biggest challenge for nigeria is funding. it's hoping the conflict in ukraine could give many countries a reason to rethink the investment of gas as a transition fuel to clean energy decrease. i'll just get out port got nigeria. ah,

this is al jazeera and these are the top stories. us health speaking in c. pelosi has begun to trip to taiwan, despite warnings of severe consequences from china, and just a few hours pelosi will made president sighing when and visit ty, one's parliament. she's the most senior us official to visit the self governing island and 25 years bashing since pelosi visit is a serious violation of the one china principal and his volunteer launch. targeted military actions around the island of vehicles with st. patrolling the chinese port city of him in across the street from taiwan. the white house has distance itself from the visit, but stressed does not violate the one china policy. let me be clear. the speakers visit is totally consistent with our long standing one china policy. we've been very clear that nothing has changed about i one china policy, which is guided course by the taiwan relations act. 3 joint u. s. p r. c communications. 6 assurances. we said that we oppose any unilateral

changes to the status quo from either side. we said we do not support taiwan independence and we did, as i said again yesterday that we expect cross street 10 differences to be resolved by peaceful means. humans, boring parties have agreed to extend a 4 month truce for further 2 months. the deal with rich just hours before the current cease fire was to to expire. the us state department is warning that the killing of al qaeda leda. i'm and although hittie in an american drones strike may prompt the group supporters to target you with facilities and citizens, he was reportedly struck by to help find missiles while he was standing on a balcony in central cobble. he was one of the key coordinators of the 911 attacks . well, those are the headlines. the news continues here on al jazeera, after inside story of next.

ah, one miscalculation the world face is nuclear annihilation. the head of the un warms where the most dangerous time since the cold war nuclear arms, nations are calling for disarmament. but do they have the wilt eliminate with it? this is the inside story. ah blow welcome to program on kim vanelle. the treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear weapons has been credited with keeping the world safe. nearly every country

has signed the agreement known as the m p t, which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote the peaceful use of atomic technology. but the un secretary general warms the world, is just one dangerous miscalculation away from nuclear conflict. and toner. quoterush says the threat is at its highest level since the end of the cold war lashes invasion of ukraine has dramatically raised the stakes. their concerns about china's rapid uptake of nuclear weapons. the u. n. is hosting a conference to review ways to strengthen the treaty. and some nations believe to hold nuclear weapons including israel, india, and pakistan. i'm not attending. we'll bring in our guests in a moment, but 1st this report from kristin salumi at un headquarters in new york. the un secretary general kicked off the 10th review conference of the n p t by sounding the alarm today humanities. just one muse. understanding when use calculation away from nuclear at any lation. we have been extraordinary lucky so far,

but lucky is not the strategy. his pessimism stands in sharp contrast to when russia in the united states signed on to the treaty in 1970. this is indeed an historic occasion. it was the height of the cold war and the goal was to prevent a nuclear conflict. nations of the world moved from a period of confrontation to a period of negotiation and a period of lasting peace. as recently as january, the 5 permanent members of the un security council, who also happened to be the officially recognized nuclear weapons states, the united states, the united kingdom, russia, china, and france, all pledge not to further disseminate nuclear weapons. but a month later, russia invaded ukraine, while russia claims full compliance with the n p t. others consider that a threat, and it's engaged in reckless, dangerous nuclear saber rattling with its president warning that though supporting

ukraine self defense, quote, risk and consequences such as you have never seen in your entire history. and then there's the iran nuclear deal agreed in 2015. it was heralded as a step toward reducing proliferation until the u. s. withdrew. now iran says it has enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon. it's under unloaded mobil while few nations have gone as far as north korea and trying to build them anti nuclear campaign, or say other countries are expressing a new willingness to host them as a deterrent. that's what frightens valerie. a has a nuclear expert from ukraine attending the conference. so there is a widespread belief that nuclear weapons have prevented a big war. and it turned out not to be true signatories to the n p t, or meant to gather every 5 years in an attempt to advance the goal of disarmament

this year. thanks to global tensions. experts say there's little hope of action. kristen salumi al jazeera, the united nations, or the head of a round atomic agency says his country has the ability to make a nuclear bomb, but doesn't plan to an advisor to iran. supreme leader made similar comments to al jazeera last month. so by the us it's no secret that we have become a nuclear threshold states and this is a reality. it's also no secret that we have the technical capabilities required to manufacture a nuclear bomb. but we don't want that global watchdog say, despite a small decrease in the number of warheads. now, thea, the total nuclear arsenal is expected to grow in the next decade. just 9 countries hold the world's estimated stock pile of 12700 nuclear warheads. more than 90 percent of them belong to russia in the us. the 2 nations have been jointly retiring there. austin, on getting rid of a total of $3660.00 warheads,

but many still remain. the u. s. has been scaling back, its non strategic nuclear weapons, which are shorter and range and have less explosive force while russia has lost, kept it stockpile the. let's bring our guests in vienna, robert kelly, a distinguished fellow at the stock home international piece research institute. he's also a former director at the i e, a, the international atomic energy agency in the whole, robbie, our director at the center for security and policy research at the university of the hor, and also of the book, the blind eye us nonproliferation policy towards pakistan from ford to clinton and in washington, richard cupid, a senior fellow and director at partnerships and proliferation prevention at the stimson center. he's previously worked for the state department on counter proliferation. everyone. welcome to you all. i thought that with you, robert kelly and target tater says he's worried that crises with

a nuclear undertones could escalate. how serious is the threat right now that nuclear weapons could actually be used? i don't see a very large between d. designated nuclear weapon states, the permanent 5, i would be very concerned about south asia. and india and pakistan may be urging some of their reserve to use nuclear weapons. the concerns and ukraine right now, probably real, but i don't see them as, as rising to a very high level right now. ok, richard to fit this us extra state gave a big speech about how invested the u. s. is in lowering the threat of nuclear war, but do the main nuclear powers that we've talked about? do they actually want nuclear weapons eliminated or do they just want to stop others from having them? well, thank you for the invitation. i certainly believe there's an interest at least in the part of the bio ministration,

which you can see in president biden's statements for the p t at reducing the u. s . nuclear nuclear arsenal. but i think the question is always been how to do that without actually increasing the risk of nuclear conflicts in the process. i'm not so sure about some of the other nuclear powers at this point in particularly given the russian federation, as you've noticed, noted in your report, references to nuclear weapons in its current recent unprovoked threats. and there may be other countries that also have limited interest in nuclear disarmament at this time for me i work with so under secretary she's the un secretary general terraces were a miscalculation away, i would point and side with professor scott sagan, leaving that the more states with the weapons, the greater the risk of accident,

sabotage or miscalculation. so i think there is a not necessarily a hypocritical position to be ent and want to try to reduce your weapons stockpiles while preserving and making sure that you, you increase actually increase the risk of use of nuclear weapons in the process. ok, robbie ox are in the hor, you see the, the nonproliferation treaty is as, as a sort of gatekeeper with these, with these main players. can you just walk us through that? thank you so much for having me on the show. i've all this my game, those vision that in the nation non issue the gene. can you best categorized as organized boxy, and we all leave it organized to offer. she is an inherent fond of the conflicts international system where states behavior is inconsistent. the norms and principals dorothy endorse. and the international system we all understand is

unpredictable and complex and the rules and norms of the system they constantly. josh is a states national interest making it difficult to remain consistent in behavior. so one would argue that if these inconsistencies and behavior exist, the new norm should be established. but seeing that over boston decades, no new norms have been established to deal with the inconsistency. and i believe that, you know, this organize the ball. chrissy has been a development of popular nowadays. and there's been selected norms of nonproliferation that have been projected in order to show up. and we had, there's plenty of examples you know, that leaders to be that is in the interest of countryside, us and others, allies of their allies for us to pick and choose country that benefit from the selected. can you give an example in the interest?

yeah, so for example, you know, when in 2013 us where to go shading with it on in order to stop at programs are not having the ambition to develop nuclear weapons. it was signing a nuclear cooperation agreement rebate. and it decided that it is going to provide, you know, heavy fuel for you know, reactive and new ways. and i'm at that point in time also very additional human rights. there was no order gene for new security in place. yes. this elective case of liberation was happening while on the other hand, i want to throw it over to robert kelly to get your take on that is this organized hypocrisy by some of those main powers. i'm thinking about all costs that the deal between the u. s. trailer in the u. k. to let us railey a get nuclear power submarines which, which china is obviously very concerned about. you know,

is there some pump chrissy going on? there's nature boxy there and i think giving us over to lawyers and accountants as shown there. easy to get the wrong end of the stick. the problem right now is that australia has 6 small diesel submarines that they used to close to the pence and some where the french offered them replacements for those same machines. what has happened is the u. s. u k way. then they stab the french in the back and convince the australians that they need 8 nuclear submarines that are capable of launching missiles at the chinese main. where from the south china sea, that's the big problem. they're not nuclear missiles. they want to launch, but land attack missiles it, australia has turned its entire program upside down from coastal defense to attacking china. and if you don't think that's going to cause problems, just watch what's happening with china. they that you as a major threat and to the earlier come,

i would like to say that russia has made some very threatening comments. donald trump made the same comments about his red button a couple of years ago. and the hell that he would rain down north korea, so lot of people can make big talk. but let's see if you're a real need just before we move on, mr. kelly from you and you told me about, you know, russia, i guess it's been accused of nuclear saber rattling but then at the beginning of this kind of this conference, these talk happening, president clinton wrote we proceed from the fact that that can be no. when isn't a nuclear war and it should be, it should never be unleashed. so is that really new play a saber rattling or is a rush, or i think the door for discussions. i think what we're missing here is there are several different scenarios they should be looking at. there's the bible between but mostly the americans in the russians who don't work for decades with arms control. and then there are larger issues of the perm 5 and they're larger and

she's yet of the perm 5 plus the state. some kind of lincoln runs but are not part of the mpg where you put north korean that is difficult to say. so i think what we're thinking here is the bilateral issue between russia and the united states. you know, there's danger there, but that it's complicated by nato, of course, because the other nato members are nuclear umbrella states. but that i think is where we might be concentrating. richard, keep it in washington, d. c. how has the war in ukraine changed the calculation around warfare and around u. k. weapons and around nuclear deterrence? well i think that's the impact is, is still to be determined, but the immediate situation is, i think it's hard in some positions in terms of those who are supporting the ban treaty for example. but at the same time,

it is move some other states that has not been in prior prior years. support of let's say, an extended nuclear umbrella. nate, mainly sweden and gentlemen, towards nato, which i think russia did not really anticipate or, or hope would happen as a result of the 2nd invasion of your brain. so i certainly think it does have some additional impacts. we personally, having worked at the united nations as well as state department, i would have it. i think it's going to be very difficult for us diplomats to trust their counterparts on the other side given what's instead. and in addition, i think, i think another thing that's another development is though, there may be some more serious discussion of the safety and security of nuclear

power plants which given that what's happened in ukraine. but it is 7 pillars idea that's been endorsed by the governors that came from director general grossi. i think those that, that's a, that's a discussion that needs to be moved to the forefront. because we're, especially as we see an increase in interest in nuclear power around the world in order to address some of the issues related to climate change. and i want to come back to you robert after to talk a little bit more about this idea of hypocrisy. because when we talk about the main nuclear power, the u. s. u. k, russia, china, france, what about the other suspected nuclear powers? israel india, pakistan. why is it okay for them? i guess us allies to, to have these weapons, but not there is a theory. say iran i get the great question and then there's

also, you know, today is the, the gatekeeping of the kind of power. they have a bi, you're writing the roles and to have them have and even, you know, with his writing in there and it's done better outside 3, nbc, and have you considered to be illegitimate? nuclear weapon states. nuclear possesses states, but not you too big. so even with the electric on, you know, you're trying to control power and as to what it means to these countries. i believe that, you know, every site is right. for example, there is hardly any content that i have on user that can enrich, you know, driver's invisible. nobody talks about his eyes, you can read and nobody talks about, you know, what you're shopping from. cheating, and you've never been trees on all the other countries on board, except for is right now you're backing it. and also with this idea that,

you know, one country was there, thing, nuclear weapon has a different sense of rationality as compared to the b 5 who have as it, you know, they really more rational with their years of nuclear weapons. and these images are actually outside the b irrational, where runs from where do you think that stem from this idea that, you know, the p 5 would take rational decisions. and, you know, other nations would not. where does that come from? so it has always been, you know, a part of the broader security study music studies nija there, you know, united states being the 1st entry to requiring generated this managers that you know, the other ones, mortgage sponsible, there's new and any other new stake, you know, it's it's not going to be responsible. so this whole idea about nuclear responsibility somehow has been in generic. and now, you know,

to be decades it has come to the game, sort of the pay, the district to nuclear weapons and responsibility that, you know, i think it needs a new out there that need. ringback needs new generation to base this forward and question as to how are you was responsible when you are the ones who are the only country in the who have use use the ribbon on the country in the world who has had more number of accidents meeting. if those accidents, you know, actually designated, you know, the world would have seen those, you know, reference detonated. you have, hi jacob, this new year. and these new countries of that you in your accident, the history of it and have learned that you know what is not to be done. and i'm war. you know, this once again you can safety and give you to g. yes, we are the ones who i want to think of that. i think all of this needs to be

question and continuous thinking question that one rationality. you know, it's not to be to, to the other. you know, i just want to, i want to pass that over to robert kelly. was there something you want to add? add to that? i think 1st, the 1st reason that one believes that there are some rationality in the weapons. lessing states is about 75 years of restraint and not using them. if we look at the enter the introduction that you can have. someone said the large countries are down about 3000 weapons. i think they're more like 330000 weapon just been removed from the russian and american stockpiles. and if we look at what countries are growing their stockpiles today, the largest growth is in pakistan, and pakistan will surpass the kingdom and france fairly soon in being or the 4th largest weapon states, no matter what kind of label on them. so if you're worried about who's increasing

their stockpiles or news, decaying militaristic lee, i'm sorry, we're back in the india, followed shortly by dpr k. yeah, i want to talk about north korea because you can't really have a discussion about you can't nonproliferation without talking about north korea. how does the the d p. ok, keeping nuclear weapons on the table, showing them off launching tests. how does that impacts other nations and their ability or inability to reduce their stock pile? because if you have that, you know, clear threat on display, what does it do for the rest of the nonproliferation disarmament movement? and also, what does it mean to south korea? i think one of the 1st thing just to look at is one of the north screening stockpile is real or not. they have trusted the number of weapons. most of those just we can follow through their lineage and see what they were for. i don't think there thermonuclear test was, or was real in the sense of being weaponized with device. and there's no sign that those were hands ever been to the, to

a missile. and just to see if the richie target, so the p r k, maybe accumulate in reference, but they're not human rating or weapon systems that can deliver a weapon to a target. ok, richard q. but how is the fight against climate change? complicated efforts toward the nuclear is ation because obviously energy is becoming more expensive. people are looking back towards nuclear options. so how is that kind of coloring the picture? well certainly i think a number of states have indicated that their real interest in expanding their nuclear power programs or in barking on a nuclear power program in the light of climate change, especially with small modular reactors, other new and advanced reactors systems. so in terms of de nuclear is ation that's, that's an issue in terms of getting rid of nuclear weapons or preventing proliferation. it's more of, it's more of an issue of over time. you know,

i think we've known from the beginning that if you learn a few things from nuclear power, they do have some application to potentially to developing programs. so the, the issue is always then, how do we promote the peaceful uses including nuclear power of nuclear energy while restraining the any idea moving towards a weapon system. and that's largely 3 safeguards is what we comprehensive safeguards agreement, which is what the national community is relied on and pass. so it does complicate things because it creates more states that will be in a position if they so choose to pursue a nuclear weapons program. they, however, that that's a big moving from being able to do it to choosing to do it is, is a very big step. i think there's

a really interesting book recently by now rang called seeking the bomb that talks about hedging strategies. a number of states have moved to a point where they might be able to have a program, but they've so far chosen not to some others have actually maybe have more of as chosen to do so, but not tested, not move beyond that. so there's, there's a range of strategies related here, but i think the most important one is for states to be able to enjoy the peaceful uses of nuclear nuclear energy and nuclear technologies. but making sure that they don't choose to pursue a nuclear weapons. ok, we're coming and that is i would know i part of our nuclear cooperation agreements . yeah. and push what you're saying. we're coming to the end of the program. what about 45 seconds left. so it's a very quick question to you. robert. tar is the promise of nuclear

nonproliferation essentially unfair because it keeps the power in the hands of those countries that can exploit them. i think we have much to be grateful or to the entity that it has the numbers low. but i do believe that this bargain isn't fair, and even the discovery address on you would see that russia and track that it has made is going to dominate. and it's again, going to come back to you then that you find this on the 5 can on this on the guys there is no broader beef in international security. if you just allow me a couple of seconds, you'll, you know, i'd raise my hand to make, to make a comment about south asia being the now you flash point and both of my family, you know, residue it of 2019 kazama volleyball prices between india and boston rice or nations for you rested with did not use in nuclear and words in the in di crisis in the literature coming out from the rest,

david pockets on the be the 12 years. and so i think there is a change that you should be brought about. we appreciate you coming from the rest the day. don't ask where you have the ownership of non use you countries like india office. i'm, you know, have your train from using nuclear weapons and through several crisis. there's much evidence to ok. we'll have to leave it there for time. thank you very much to all of i guess robert kelly robbie actor and richard, keep it and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website to l, just or dot com. and further discussion go to our facebook page that facebook dot com forward slash a j t inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. we are at a j, inside story for me, kim's and l. a whole team here in the

ah, and in a post colonial world, the stars of european imperialism run deep. nowhere more so than in the democratic republic of congo, where her history still shapes the presence of visceral yet infamous insight. through the eyes of a whistleblower and a patriotic military commander witnessed presents. this is congo on a jesse eva. the 19 sixty's was a period of change around the world, including the middle east and north africa. nanette, we dreamed of the fair and democratic society we dreamed of,

of evolution. the 1st of a 3 part series out as they were weld, exclude the regional events. people and forces that shake the decade. i don't want our dreams were many. we started with great dreams, but ended up with sad set. the sixty's in the arab world. politics on al jazeera. ah, until mccrae and doha, the top stories on al jazeera, the speaker, all the us house of representatives, nancy pelosi has begun to visit to taiwan. despite warnings of severe consequences from china pelosi has just arrived at the parliament. the talks with tie one's president sighing when earlier policy issued a statement saying it us support the tie one's democracy is unwavering. the beijing considers the island a part of its territory and has.