is the largest ethnic group in king. i have no presidential favorites this time. however, both bluto and no danger have chosen. he qu, you riding mate in the country, way ethnic voting blocks are important. i divided the q u votes made the selection go either way. they are already claims and counterclaims up sabotage and fo tricking more than a 1000 people died in the 2007 election. what happens with kenny is your political significance? is that it just that that tension. oh, sort of begin stew to shake up beer. the stability of the, of the great hall of africa and then the larger east africa. so that's what there's a lot of international organizations that are bestier. and so can you re strategic for, from a global perspective. and that's what the international community is looking at. business communities muskogee just sitting on the edge of your seat, trying to figure out whether this is going to go peacefully or not. i liked some previous votes,

they've been less pre election violence. canyons generally have confidence in the judiciary. many hope if the results are disputed candidacy will result the differences in court and not the st. parramatta algebra narrow the ah, this is al jazeera and these are the top stories. the palestinian islamic jihad group tells al jazeera that it will go back to bombing israel if it doesn't release detainees. p i, j spokesman colored, i will, i, it says israel agreed to release 2 of their top commanders under a ceasefire deal broken by egypt. israel has denied agreeing to those terms that l side has the latest from gaza. people are trying to gradually go on with our lives here in godsa. but to as the family is worried that there are lost ones. there are beloved ones who they have lost in the past 3 days. also i want to add that

a 10 year old child just died of her wound sustained in the air strikes. in the past 3 days, bringing the total to 45: kil, including 16 children, until now we have ha, funerals in different areas is blended to had as walden, a large moria 10 for other people who have been killed across this trip. in the past, the 3 days of air strikes is rarely forces have also demolished palestinian homes during a raid in the northern occupied west bank. will doses accompanied by israeli forces destroyed to houses, village of money match i need. russia says it's ready to facilitate a visit from monitors, from the international atomic energy agency, to towards the parish, a power plant. both ukraine and russia have blamed each other for shunning the facility last week. european union has tabled

a final text as talks about reviving the 2015 iran nuclear till wrap up in vienna. united states says it's ready to quickly conclude a deal based on the text, but iran has responded. it's not ready to talk about finalizing things just yet. until i and that has condemned china's extension of military drills around the island exercises were originally set to end on sunday. they started or to us house speaker nancy pelosi visited type a last week is are the headlines have been use? continues. aaron, i'll just say that's often inside story, stay with us. ah, who will be kenya's next leader?

president who kenyatta is stepping down after a decade in power. previous elections were marked by violence. will it be different this time? and what's at stake in this vote? this is inside stuart. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm hammer, jim, jim canyons go to the polls on tuesday to choose a new president. parliament and county assembly's candidates held their final campaign over the weekend, drawing large crowds, some familiar faces, are vying for the presidency and their messages are similar. revive the economy, create jobs, and end corruption. many voters frustrated by corruption and skyrocketing prices, are calling for change. ha, ritathui nairobi has more on who is running. and what is at stake?

this is kelley made from kenya. staple, olga amazing. i like most basics here. it's price has gone up and because of shortages, it's not easy to find. in the living evenings continue these. we more businesses will close. we are facing a lot of challenges. corruption, foreign debt, rising inflation and unemployment. a big election issues. and all candidates are promised to cushion households against the increasing cost of living. for politicians on running for the presidency. david, while with a, a lawyer and pasta george watch acoya, a law professor, william router king as deputy president and rayleigh, dinger, a former prime minister. but opinion polls suggest they are 2 front runners. oh me router. the current deputy president who describes himself as a hustler and hopes his rags to riches story will resonate with the poor and or

dingo who's making his 5th bid for the top. the job. the veteran opposition leader is the son of king as the 1st to vice president and enjoys the backing of current leader who king atta, it's an election some and the say will be hotly contested. he korean is the largest ethnic group in king. i have no pets dental favorites this time, however, both routes so and no danger have chosen. he qu, you writing mates in the computer, ethnic voting blocks are important. i divided the q u votes, means the selection go either way. they are already claims and counterclaims of sabotage and voted more than a 1000 people died in the 2007 elections. what happens with kenny is your political significance? is that he just that that tension. oh, sort of begin stew to chicago beer. oh, the stability of the, of the great hall of africa and the larger east africa. so that's what there's a lot of international organizations that are bestier. and so can you re strategic

for, from a global perspective. and that's what the international community is looking at. business communities, muskogee just sitting on the edge of your seats, trying to figure out whether this is good ago. peaceful, you know, i like some previous votes. these been less pre election violence. kenyans generally have confidence in the judiciary. many hope if the results are disputed candidacy will result the differences in court and not the streets harder. matessa al jazeera, narrowly pre and post election violence in kenya is rooted in ethnic tensions every vote since 1997 has been marred by unrest. more than a 1000 people were killed and 600000 displaced in 2007 when rival candidates both claimed victory. 10 years later, dozens of people were killed when police clamped down on demonstrations. the opposition refused to accept the results, claiming vote, rigging and fraud. all right,

let's go ahead and bring in our guests in london is fergus cal, a research analyst in the africa program at chatham house. and in nairobi is jackie corny, k, a lawyer and a writer. a warm welcome to you both and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. jackie, let me start with you today on elections and kenya are often more about personalities and ethnic alliances. are issues like the economy, the cost of living and fighting corruption more front and center for voters this time than they were in the past. i see yes them because the cost of living has fast reason to unbearable reach right now. canyons recently had the president passed a subsidy on mayflower. yeah, package of meat for detailing it better be $2.00 and your end to the left. and so in kenya, we have, it was kept at

a door last because people get financial and economics thinking it's got a mis struggling. yeah. and see if it's taken more interest even then for the 1st time ever punch the food channel through the me, the end their whatever the try get seen as the mean train for open it up 1st. how close is the race expected to be, or is it possible there could be a run off and have the candidates made commitments to respect the outcome? so i think we are likely to see a close race. i think that there are probably 3 likely central outcomes any which is possible at this stage that would be either an outright rather than go in and outright ridge. so when, in which case either of the candidates would need to receive over 50 percent or so

. but the 3rd option, as you say, is a run off in which neither main candidates receives 30 percent of the vote. and that might be possible to use that to slightly more peripheral outsider candidates, david maury and professor walker julia. and so it is going to be a tight race falling suggested that it will be close and it will be about the, the calculus of different regional strong holes on battleground states as well there. and in terms of a commitment to respect the results, i think are all the way back in march. we had both candidates speak at chatham house here at london in which they both pledge to respect the outcome of a free and fair election. and the in more recent weeks in the last week, both agreed that they will shake hands or has tea together after the result is announced. and so i think the important message is that they accept the results of

a free and fair election. and as the election is the not to be free and fair that they challenge that within the property national framework of the separate or jackie, i saw you nodding along to some of what fergus was saying. so i'm going to let you jump in and add whatever you'd like to add, but i also want to ask, you know, can you has a recent history of turbulent elections and violence after elections? is there a concern this time that violence could play a part and and from your perspective have precautions been taken to ensure that this doesn't happen? i think um, i'd like 1st to let just like to commend all the fatty so fine. how give conducted themselves for the 1st time in recent history. we've had that violence 3 relatively violence reconvene period. nobody james, i've been here in kenya will have when you strike sleeping after the election, they used to office cruise lines. people can access the central business district, they cl not had any incidences of that. and i think it's because of some of the

commitments that have been made by the, the felicia cocaine it is. and i'm, as i can, and i'm really grateful for that to be able to, to walk almost all through the camp, alter the computer. and that's as nothing along that commitment to, with shaking hands. because it's because the general sentimental canyon this time is let's finish this and let's go back to our because surely when i go back to close the loop or something but alicia giving to know. so that's, that's their session that if you or jackie, you know, you were mentioning just there, the importance of, of this idea of having a handshake. and i actually want to talk for a 2nd about a different handshake that, that made headlines a few years back. you know, reloading as run for present, for other times in the past. but this time he is backed by long time political rival president who kinyata. and there was this very famous and public handshake between the 2 in 2018. how did the alliance between these 2 leaders come about and

how significant is it? i'm interesting, this country method that came, that was like what, what was that? nothing was, nothing has gone back to normal feeling the action to because the books will describe like disgruntled number, the by the supreme court of our judgment story. but there's some physical fight the election. and so when we, when the 2nd election, i held a number of a number of the electorate. those who actually did note what, what i struck steam for so already, even though we went through the 2nd time, the number of people who felt like they should want to did not even add up to what was sizable. so this, i think that's handshake was too bad, can, could go or you could be transferred to people. and i think at that time it was

very shortly watched. rush no more needed. and i know there's a lot of criticism around it. but yeah, i'd be speaking to someone who the knife had been affected and we'll fix it. if it had not been resolved, that check was crucial for you and. and just for government business to go on with a business to go on for a night. i notice we tend to focus on the highest peaks in politics and we'll get the people who are actually electorate. fergus, the alliance between rylon and who wrote me out basically sidelined kenyatta deputy william ruta who is running what led to the fall out between kinyata and router. it's unclear what the precise reasons are for the fall out. there is a general understanding that it was linked to a promise or an understanding between president kenyata and we re so that when they

came together in what was to some extent, a marriage of convenience. the contest reactions in 20132017 kenyatta would repay the favor by supporting rito in his can in when he was contesting for the presidency. following the end of the 2nd time, of course with the handshake and kenyatta. backing of of the b b i. initiative that emerged from that. we have seen that that promise whether it was made has not, has not been fulfilled. and so in his own ambitions to a sense of the presidency, split off from kenyata, distance themselves from cabinet meetings and ended up leaving the party that a form together. jackie, a william router describes himself as a hustler, and he has cast this race as a contest between hustlers and dynasties. so what does he mean when he uses the

term hustler versus when he uses the term dynasty and, and has this framing device that, that router was using? has it caught on it? is it having a big impact in the election thus far in the campaigning? ok for context, our kind president, one this i know why funding president and being goes beep jeremiah zilkey again was one of the vice president. so that consider dynasty very much of the fact that their fathers have held for the shows and ruins aware that they couldn't from being defend over nobody to, to where he is that he is claiming his claims that she tells me to come up. and that's, i guess he's appeal and how he's trying to be more the double to the math this for . can you go home?

my jury you can give the billing department tonight if i could get yeah. you can get yeah. understand no, no, and they may be missing. i think it has re bernita fergus . what are the main issues that are separating the leading candidates this time out? what, what platforms are they running on? so i would say that there has broadly been increasing convergence between the 2 candidates on key manifest or issues. but there are here that separate. and to some extent, one of them i would say is corruption in the writing that has been campaigning on a very strong 0 tolerance to corruption platform. that's one of his key messages throughout the campaign. whereas for a router that's been less of a feature of his campaign and he's chosen instead of to emphasize the needs for independence in the anti corruption agencies and, and can, has

a need to be politicized, to fight against corruption in kenya. there's also on that there's some divergence in terms of router is, is very sure that his campaign promises in broadening the tax base would allow canyon attackers. it's, it's that issues. whereas i think it has promised to restructure and renegotiate some of that. and i think there's also a general slight difference in terms of the focus of their campaign. so i think is being much more focused on social protection on health care promises particular whereas routes has a real strong emphasis on this on his economic model, which he holds ultima and supports entrepreneurs in kenya. jackie, it does seem that corruption is playing a major role in the campaign season. how frustrated are voters with corruption in kenya? and with this and do any of the leading candidates have credibility when it comes

to pledges to, to tackle these issues and fight corruption and say can street and we have, we have an average to, to, to me just a year where they're most thinkable for, for number yes, it's frustrating to, to, to missouri, to be an extra route. i need for me to go in to the lecture to, into the election period. and when he come to the can you hear mention i mentioned that again the menu that they had done to be leaving of the people in both. both, both the leading candidate selection has been helpful to have help positions of influence. and there hasn't been should be much traction or much change from from, from them being positions. so i think they have,

they don't complete and the, i think the retail progress is more than one and corruption. fergus, i saw you nodding along to jackie was saying, did you want to jump in? i would, i would i for what we're jackie is, is saying the corruption has probably been supplanted by broader economic issues as, as a key campaigning topic in the selection campaign. but i, i will say that on your question, around the anti corrosive stances of, of key figures that martha crew, the presidential candidate on the, on it as far as i think this company is seeing us as someone with reasonable integrity when it comes to the anti russians an issue she's popular with civil society in kenya as it relates to this issue. jackie ry loading

a nominated martha crew as his running mate. she's a long time politician, former justice minister. she's the 1st woman to be nominated as a running mate on a major political ticket. has this choice, energized the electorate, and has it given a re loading this campaign, a boost i would say had because she has never been seen as a phone line comes on the on the presidential in. i'm a national she's not my where she'd never manage to go much to my house bill. however, my back is full and, and have being a woman who has been fighting for different was this through the 202010. she should been very instrumental in the things that i think he'd have both said he's coming. i think it's one him so and as it just fun to see i going to,

i don't have to which will much into individual. but i do think it's of the choice and jackie, have the political reforms that were introduced after the election violence in 2007 have those political reforms made it easier for women and even for youth to participate in the political process. that's definitely definitely i'd say the new institution are 32010. how many most most definitely going to use because is a program called i want to reach me and then you get 13 percent of the government business contracts. and i think this has increased access to capital or posters to groups that the you spent capital event on the directions, the money. and if they have access to money, then you can move, can move, can you can move or you can, you can make yourself visible. so i think this change things and also the one touch . and the more the more push for that will make i'm can go as well that

i think definitely definitely will look like this and and why for and i'm happy for that. fergus, women make up nearly half of registered voters in kenya. but compared to other countries in east africa, kenya still has few female elected leaders from your perspective. why is that? and are there signs that things might play out differently this election cycle? well, i think partly it comes back a little bit to what jackie was saying, just now about the role of money in kenyan elections. i think there have been a clear pass campaign financing laws that would increase transparency and introduce spending minutes or the campaigns. those didn't eventually end up passing and i'm so, you know, we have seen kind of unchecked spending by candidates which again does make it

difficult for. ready slightly more marginalized groups enter into the process, i think as well looking at the number of candidates who are contesting this i'm i think around $60000.00 total candidates only about 12 percent of those are actually women. so there's clearly a long way to go on on this front in order to achieve gender representation in senior and politic. jackie, what about the youth in this election cycle? how invested are they? are? are they more apathetic? are they more energized? and how much has the use of social media changed the campaign thus far? i think i think i think the people would previously been you are more excited. i think they're more like being i recently saw and,

and i've been doing when i read it back on to june of the job and engaging with the other questions that i had the raising from am and prints out of it with that has been agreed to for different candidates to address issues and i can't compare the social media nutrition that's at this time to lead to that load. i think to 2017 know the level of it, but i spoke to the interference in 20172022 from morgan agrees for might have been able to if need be. so i am for the you. i think the more plugins asking one question that i know i've seen on the books, kids being run by james on what you've suspected been up presidential debate, how they doubt they respond to different issues. and i've been quite impressed just seeing that, i think the 1st i would love to watch out for i think they may change everything.

fergus kenya is east africa's economic hub. how important is it to the region that the, during the selection and after the selection things remain calm and stable it is really significant, not just in terms of can years economic role, which is obviously significant, especially for the landlord countries in east africa regions. but also in terms of the benchmark that it would stack or democracy. i mean, kenya is the only country in east africa to have overseeing relatively stable transition of power between government and opposition. and when you look at the current situation in times neo or uganda, for example, where the context of the really difficult opposition parties operate. i think kenya leading the way in terms of state transition is, is really important. also, when you look, for example of 2017 and the precedent that,

that set for the rest of the region and internationally was really significant. we already saw in malawi in 2020, similar in all of a presidential result, which sites on the senate seat. can you ruling as a president, so can you really has the potential to lead on this within the region and act as a benchmark, jackie and from your vantage point there, nairobi. what's the earliest you think that official results would be announced? i think baby. all right, well it will be very eventful and interesting to see how it all plays out of the end. that's all the time we have for today. we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to our guest furgas carol. and jackie can you can and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just here dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter or handle is at a j inside story from him. how much of human the whole team here?

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