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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  August 24, 2022 3:30am-4:01am AST

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who would like the monarchy to return, and both of these groups in a way and us tells it sort of a mythic past of stability and believes that things used to be more stable and just better in the past than they are today. and i think that the president, in a way is using this moment to say that he is the candidate of stability of continuity. it's quite a turbulent moment right now with a very unstable economic situation, but certainly movements in the polls most and has been advising recently due to increased public spending. and i think he's certainly using this moment to project himself as a statesman and somebody who would like to project us stability. so i think particularly those who have a sense that, you know, things used to be better in the past and who disliked the volatility inherent to democracy could certainly be attracted to the kind of nissan saying the kind of
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show that the president is putting on on the occasion of brazil's 200 year university. ah, again, i'm fully back to bo with the headlines on al jazeera ukraine is set, told muted independence. the celebrations after warnings. russia may ramp up its attacks was traced curfew is in place in the northeast, and 3 of concave and authorities in the capital. keith have banned mass gatherings for the whole week. total having merged a rushing back separate case in my a poll building present cages at the chamber philharmonic to hold a trial for ukrainian prisoners of war. russia, the supreme court declared the as all regimen to terry school this month. the united nation has express concerns about the potential try. there are photos and there's video footage in the media and social media showing cages being built in
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the variable philharmonic hall really massive cages. and the, apparently, the idea is to, to restrain the prisoners of war during proceedings in these cages. this is not acceptable. this is humiliating as well to the prisoners of war. and it adds to our concerns about how they are being treated. and whether the presumption of innocence is being upheld. the construction of these cages coupled with statements made by high level russian officials, calling these people terrorist than not sees and war criminals before any trials, has even taken place is deeply worried. the un security council has held an emergency meeting to discuss fighting the, the rush, unoccupied oper reach a nuclear plant in ukraine. they're calling for the immediate withdrawal of troops and the, the militarization. now, the area in the u. s. a former police officers pleaded guilty for her role in the
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death of brianna taylor, a black woman, shot and killed during a police raid at our home. federal investigators say kelly good lead conspired to create a cover story. brianna taylor's death sponsor protests over racial injustice and police brutality. across the us. when use on our website, al jazeera dot com up next in size story stay with us. with is a return to the iran nuclear deal imminent thereon has responded to the use plan to restore the 2015 accord all sides are waiting for the us to reply. so what are the
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final hurdles to a new agreement? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle. diplomat say they believe they're close to restoring the 2015 iran nuclear deal form present. donald trump pulled the us out in 2018. but for the past 16 months negotiators from washington enter on have been working with the other signatories to re establish the accord. european union laid down what it called its final offer earlier this month. few details have been officially made public sources of toll down to 0. the new deal be rolled out and 4 phases over to 60 day periods. functions on 17 banks and the $150.00 economic institutions will be lifted. iran will scale back its nuclear ambitions and be able
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to export 15000000 barrels of oil a day. they use foreign policy chief says to run has given what he calls a reasonable response to the proposal. to set boil says he expects the us to reply this week. it wouldn't leave you. okay. you'll understand this to be the points of equilibrium when neither one side nor the other can make things better. it was communicated to the participants of the negotiation. basically, iranians and north americans and every one, british germans, french, chinese, and russians. there was an iranian response, which i consider reasonable. it was transmitted to the united states. the u. s. has not responded formally, but we are waiting for the response. and iran has accused the us of delaying its response. more than morning between him of we can talk about this round of talks being fruitful only when the europeans announce that they have received a response by the american law and washington has denied stalling the talks. the
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state department said to ron, appears to have dropped some of its demands, such as were moving wrongs revolution regards from its list of terror organizations . president has been clear, he's been firm, he's been consistent, that he will not list the terrorism designation on the i r g c, a runs demand that we do so has been removed from the latest version of the text that we have seen. and that's part of the reason why a deal is closer now than it was 2 weeks ago. but the outcome of these ongoing discussions, doreen's uncertain as gaps do remain. so how did we get to this point? well, in 2015 iran and 6 wild powers, agreed to a historic deal in limited toronto nuclear activities and allowed international inspectors to monitor it's activities in return, crippling economic sanctions on the country were lifted, that in 2018, the us made
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a unilateral decision to withdraw from the accord under donald trump's leadership, washington re imposed sanctions and hereon retaliated by breaching uranium enrichment limits, and 2021. talk to revive the nuclear deal began in vienna. joe biden succeeded trump several rounds have taken place, but a deal has so far been evasive. ah, well, let's bring in our guests now and into rome. we have muhammad mirandi advisor. iranian negotiation team in vienna, in berlin is hamad razor as easy visiting fellow at the german institute for international and security affairs. and in washington, d. c is alex by tanka senior fellow and founder of the iran program at the middle east institute of a warm welcome to all of you, mom and miranda. let's start with you because the signs are good, aren't they? is there a workable proposal to revive the 2015 deal on the table?
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well, 1st of all, i have to point out that iran did not withdraw any demand. and i think americans are trying to solve this at all. i've been saying this for months that removing the guards from the us. terrace lis is not something and isn't, was not a precondition. and i've said this often people can check my interviews. i probably said it on al jazeera multiple times, so that the statements coming from washington don't make any sense. iran will continue to have sent com on its terrorist organization list. but yes, i do agree that a lot has been achieved over the past few months. and the iranians were able to gain significant ground on all the different friends with weather sanctions,
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or whether it's it has to do with verification or sequencing and assurances and the b u. e. u foreign policy chief. the statement that was quoted earlier on in the package he in it, he says that the iranian proposals or the iranian points that they made in their response were reasonable. so obviously, the paul is not only in the american court denies of the iranian, now by the ha, all, it can court according to the you. so just to be clear on that 1st point that you made mom a deal saying that the iranians were never demanding that the revolution recalls be taken off the terrorist list in the us. but for the deal could be revived. yes, the iranians never demanded the cars being root removed from the so called f t o
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list the foreign terrorist organization, and anyone who doubts that they can use a search engine. check my interviews, probably a few done on al jazeera and on my twitter. alex, is that something that you can corporate them from where you are in washington, d. c? i don't know what mr. moran did it on this issue over the last few months. i think the consensus here in washington would certainly be that that was an issue a ratings were pressing or hard if i remember right, a very senior member of the rainy regime close to i to look harmony. i believe it was a dog forum. he made that point, that the revolution guards needed to be off the u. s. terrorism list. so, you know, i don't know exactly where different players were, but this was certainly a factor for a while. and it seems to not be a factor in the moment, at least that's it, say, regardless of the status, it seems to be a moot point because it appears that revolutionary guards are not on the table any
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more 100 raise a. how close do you think we are guessing? the 2015 deal revived. it's my understanding that we are closer than anytime before, since the re, as far as the negotiations after racy took off since. because you know, at some point we were actually seeing kind of maxim august, the ones on the right hand side, which was somehow, you know, of course, was not accepted by, by the us sign. but i just recently shows like this thing that i see, or other points i think you're on, has made a lot of, you know, kind of or better to say, a series of reasonable concessions. and that is the reason why joseph 4 of the foreign policy chief has kind of called the wrong response reasonable. so at this
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moment, i think borrow the statement goes on saying for something in the sense that the kind of, in the mention that it's up to the united states now to decide because much whatever the european side could do. i think they have already done, and it was mentioned before, it's kind of a fine officer for 13 sort of the positions of basic questions positions. so that is now the situation. so it's really much up to the united states to be the response to the proposal that alex is generate captain of bowl is now in the u. s. in court. but if biden stalling, look at laura, we have to admit to simple reality here. there's a lot of politics around this issue, both in washington and the terra interact, a prison race in is team want to give the rainy public the impression that the deal
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is about to be born maybe is so much better than has that ronnie would have negotiated this is part of the rain in factional politics, the so called reformers than the so called hard liners. each want to be the national champions, didn't claim this game for months in the washington. you know, the democratic party is not doing well president, by the approval ready is historic low. he can afford to see week, not after the debacle in afghanistan and all sorts of questions about his handling of foreign policy. so he's making sure that, you know, he doesn't look week lot of democrats in congress are already on the fence. it's not opposing to still because of political reasons. so unfortunately, politics in washington, iran is just not helping this diplomatic process. i love it. we agree with that to say that there's pressure in the political echelons of terror on to present a better deal than honey could have negotiated. look,
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i was on the, i was with dr. sadie in vienna in 2015 during the whole period of the negotiations to 3 weeks. and i was with the current team. and yet during the whole period when they were negotiating. and it is very obvious to me that while both teams were did their best. but for whatever reason, the iranians have been able to gain enormous concessions this time round. and in fact, to correct a point that was previous them previously made mr. or l said spoke favourably about their points that the iranians made though which were linked to the so called final tax. in other words, the iranians were saying this final tax has deficiencies that have to be addressed . and mr. burrell, when he read, and when they study the writing proposals he got, he said that they were reasonable. so for the united states had to give concessions
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. but the fact is that the right the concessions that the ryans gained, we're all about implementing the j. c. p. away, nothing more than that. what the americans want to do is have a g p a way where they don't abide by their commitments in full and iranians do so . and he run is we're not going to have that again. when obama signed the deal, he systematically violated the deal from day one. he was supposed to help help facilitate the normalization of iranian trade in business. and what he did in reality, through the treasury was threatened banks financial institutions, shipping companies, insurance companies, big business not to work with iran. that was a clear violation of the deal. and then trump tore up the deal and bite in despite criticising trump. he pursued trumps maximum pressure policy, which was directed at ordinary iranians. so the rhine is of looking at the past at american violations, whereas we all know that the needs were biting by their commitments. so this time
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around the run is big game these concessions, basically to make sure that the americans alongside the iranians abide by their commitments. i'm a res, that is one of those concessions has been raised in the media. if one those confessions that the u. s. will face a fine if a future president, again, we next on the deal is that in this proposal, as you know, let's see what we have written here or seen in the media has been based on a list audio on the right hand side. so there is no concrete detail on the side that's use as far as i know lots based on my understanding. you know, there might be some provisions, once you mention in terms of form on line or something like that. the compensation is tonight because they decide to be there all again, i seriously doubt that any kind of, you know, i guarantee or you know,
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compensation, lifestyle would be actually implementable because, you know, there is a matter of whether to what extent any kind of agreements i mean the deal it says wouldn't be binding, let alone the issue of compensation. so i think this is something more related to the wrong number, 6 politics because at the end of the day, the system needs to sell their agreements with the public or something stronger. xander on the matter of this issue, i guarantee it's happening something that they haven't been maneuvering gone. and this might serve that surface next week, or the stand, the iranians lack of trust, given that the us unilaterally pulled out of the full day in 2018. but as having to raise the said all the, any guarantees that workable within the u. s. political and legal system look, there's a short answer to that is no american president guarantee
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a deal permanent. i mean, you need to go through the congress. you need to ratify a treaty to have that, you know, state of course, going forward, regardless of who is in the white house. now, this republic or iran, has very few credit friends in the united states congress. and you know, and this is the point that goes back to what we heard just earlier in terms of us intentions. number one, it is a mistake. it's a folly and has been from day one to assume that you can have anything that's permanent. the rainy inside should have looked at the biting term in office and it might be a to turn president binding might be a one term president, but there was a window of opportunity and interested in working with buyers and they, when you play politics, but quite a bit i understand that they didn't want to fall into the same truck again, that's totally understandable, but they try to pay or make biden pay for the sins of trump if you will. that was
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a mistake. there's still 2 years left. there's a lot that can be done negotiated, and i think it's a strategic mistake on the part of the republic of iraq to stick to the nuclear talks along what they need to do. and they should have done this from day one byte and came to the white house mister, brought in the conversation and admit to the fact that the reigning foreign policy would benefit from being more balanced, to talk to the west and not put all their eggs in the basket of the likes of russia and china. this is a political ideological decision islamic republic needs to make. if they do that, i think any deal that might be reached will have so much more likelihood to, to succeed beyond by the presidency. and if there is time i'd like to talk about something else you can do, but i'll leave that for for now, please. yet we will definitely give you more time in a moment, a bomb. and a lot of things to answer the and alex is on the, but i was what just want to put it to you where the iranians, you want him. people might consider that bite and also made
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a mistake in missing the opportunity to renegotiate this deal. and will hon these final, last month and 2021 might have been an easier task. yes, the problem was that bitin wanted more than what he deserved. he wanted iran to implement the deal in full and he wanted the united states again added concessions . that was what truck was after. so why would iran resists trumps excessive demands and a piece, trump, and then then later on and, and refrain from appeasing trump. and then later on go in a piece, bided. now that's that's, that's what that would be ridiculous. actually, what the iranians have done at the negotiations. one thing that they did was that they created inherit insurance. insurances, in other words, if the united states doesn't live up to its obligations, the iranians can very quickly returned enriching uranium at the pace it is doing. now that makes them in cartons pay
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a price for leaving the deal. the problem that we had under obama and binding was his vice president was that the united states didn't pay a price for violating the deal. the problem under trump was at the united states, didn't pay a price for leaving a deal. these negotiations went to, to ensure that the united states pays the price. and this is a good thing for the deal because it protects the deal. if both sides feel that staying in the deal is a better thing is good for the deal. one final point that i'd like to me in that is that in 2015, when the deal was signed, the iranian leader, ayatollah. how many said that if the united states abide by its commitment in good faith, other issues could be discussed. and then in that speech you said, although i don't believe the united states will abide by commitments in good faith . and he was absolutely correct, the united states wasted an opportunity. and why should you run and speak about other issues when the united states is not abiding by,
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it's the commitments that it's signed on to. so if the united states in future wants to start talking to the iranians about multiple issues 1st, they have to show that they are reasonable in their obligate with regards to their obligations in any future nuclear deal. ah other dresser, how difficult has it been to try to keep this deal alive as you are the e u member states china, russia also trying to, to keep this deal going when you've got to very different sides who won't even sit at the same table during these particular negotiations. now of course, you know, when you have the 2 sides that are not sure the one of them is not ready to negotiate with the other party. and you need to have both a party to the agreement time shares and also to play the role of a media or it's, it's quite difficult and this has been so my understanding one of the main reasons
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that, you know, it took so long for us to reach the point that we are, and this is still kind of on certain situation. but, you know, here speaking of you, i think that's the kind of very interesting change. and it was all because you know what your son know before was to somehow play the role of mediator more like you're kind of messenger, i would say, you know, that's me, the single kind of reduce that it all a messenger based on the united states. but seen as the cross, i think we've been witnessing your kind of increase role of the you in terms of comments on its own initiatives like the proposal that's that's we saw and of course there's a few reasons like, you know, the potential for iran to go back to the energy market and it's potential for, you know, increasing it's going for an auction. the time sounds remove also the fact that the
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european is non, once you've or you know, it's in europe close. ready neighborhood, so these factors contribute to, to the more active role. my dear, okay, i'm not without that, i don't think that we could reach the point that you are absolutely the other sides . alex, we've got israel lubing lodge doing what it can to stop. the deal feels reporting just few days ago that the prime minister la pete told the us to walk away from these talk. so we, we know that buys and is taking its time to respond. is this because of israel's leverage within the us? well, i say 2 things about the role of these railways in all of this number one is just put yourself into shoes of israelis. you're sitting there countries just on the 10000000 people and you have iran not far away a country of 85000000 that has since 970 and i'd about to destroy you. anybody on a human level would have to sympathize with the fears that these ratings have. now
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not for a 2nd defending with israelis are doing to be the policy unions and also some other criticism you can let but the door of israel. but that essential read republic of iran and don't take my word for it. listen to this speech. accommodate will be the supreme court with the system. so 1989. we're just going to jump on a few minutes left. we know the antagonism between israel and iran, it just wants to know how much israel is steining the us responding to the steel. look, i think there's really, really don't have much of the plan be here. the best i can do is help the united states. they really don't have a military strike option to get the right. they know it would have done a long time ago. they had it. so all israel really should do is to support the united states in any way possible to make sure that iran and the rest of the will come to an agreement in terms of your asked you to program. ok. moment does that? does iran have a plan b if this deal is not revived? but 1st of all, i like to say that iran proposition to israel,
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if i could pop position to a part that south africa, you run once this system, this racist regime to. and i'd like the whole bay, but we will, we do have one inside story by the time. so please at 6, the nuclear dale. well, the iranians, if the united states at this point, when both the european and the rhyme, you are saying that the ball is in the us court. if the americans are not reasonable, the run is, will continue to expand their piece of nuclear program. and also we are closing in on winter. the weather is going to get very cold in europe. the europeans are going to suffer. and so is the united states. the price of energy is high. so if the united states wants to ease pressure on ordinary europeans, instead of sacrificing them, they should listen to joseph. well, ok, i am at razor, you hear there that iran will continue expanding what it calls it, peaceful nuclear program. i mean, it has enriched uranium to 60 percent that needs to be in rich to 90 percent for it
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to be a nuclear bomb. and we have had the supreme leader senior advisor in july saying that ron is technically capable of making a nuclear bomb. if this deal doesn't happen, how dangerous a situation is, the region in, well, of course, a nice collision, detentions, especially it's when you're on israel you know, as far as your other guess mentions, you know, there's not a lot of options that it has, but one option that it has been resorting to has been to having these course activities against the clearing structures and right now responses with actually, you know, accessing the situation. but once you know, there's a kind of understanding i think regarding the position of view cause you know, he was and there's a need something quite obvious. but then if you want to
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also ignore the red lines, they would have already recently agreements to trust because, you know, this whole debate is about the very fact that europeans have their own deadlines as well. so i don't think that's, you know, you're ongoing further than anything at the regional level and also still program would be really helpful in getting more from the europeans or dinners. ok, a very interesting discussion. indeed, we're going to have to leave it for the moment. mohammed mirandi, i'm going to raise the as easy and alex, but time cut. thank you very much for joining us. and thank you to for watching, you can see the program again anytime by visiting a web site, this al jazeera dot com and to further discussion do go to facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha. inside story. it was to join the conversation on twitter handlers at a j inside story. from me laura kyle, i'm the whole team here. it's my for now the
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