tv Inside Story Al Jazeera August 24, 2022 2:30pm-3:00pm AST
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now is the graffiti supporting russia's invasion of ukraine suggests. serbian sympathies lie with moscow. the main issue is that her, when the e u is not in how the russians are getting in. every one knows that her, but sure, it's hush, not yet been distancing itself from all the russian invasion in ukraine. russia is still very much interested in having a next font. an ex font is the balkans, serbia's president alexander view church, says sir politicians on civil servants could stop working in cost of an institutions. if the new license plates are imposed. cause of those prime minister albin, courtesy, there is an escalation to a wider conflict. nato says its troops are ready to intervene. if there's a risk of violence, bernard smith, al jazeera, pristina, kosovo. ah,
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i'm, let's take you through some of the headlines here now da 0. now. ukrainians are holding muted celebrations to mark 31 years of independence from soviets. rule mass gatherings have been banned in the capsule cave and curfews imposed in some cities wednesday, march 6 months since the beginning of the russian invasion, which has killed thousands of people and displaced millions. iran says israel is waging psychological warfare the sabotaged progress in reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. it follows us media reports thereon has dropped some major demands from the deal allegations. it denies, of course in ty lenses suspended, prime minister private channel church, while the review of his term is completed prior took power in a coup in 2014 critic stays reached the maximum limit of 8 years in office. it's
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feared the legal showdown could trigger a fresh political crisis with national elections in the middle of next year. tourney chang has more. from bangkok he is suspended temporarily and that they will come to a decision by the end of september. the senior deputy prime minister private once one will step up into his place for the moment. but because he hold their position to perfect defense minister, he'll still be in government. he'll still be a member of the cabinet and he's still be very much involved. that said, i think this is going to be seen by the protest. this is something of a victory. they've been shipping away prior to notice position for a couple of years now. voting is underway in angola and what's expected to be as close as the election in decades. the ruling party of president jour lorenzo is aiming to extend its 47 years in power, but frustration at rising poverty and inflation is fueling
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a strong challenge from the opposition coalition. rescue teams in pakistan are working around the clock to help hundreds of thousands of people stranded by floods. the provinces of southern cinda and southwestern blotches. stan been badly hit this week. as the headline sits inside, story, ah, is a return to the iran nuclear deal imminent thereon has responded to the use plan to restore the 2015 accord, poolside, so waiting for the us to reply. so what are the final hurdles to a new agreement?
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this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle. diplomat say they believe they're close to restoring the 2015 iran nuclear deal. former president donald trump pulled the us out in 2018. but for the past 16 months negotiated from washington enter on have been working with the other signatories to re establish the accord. european union laid down what it called its final offer. earlier this month. few details have been officially made public sources of toll down to 0. the new deal be rolled out and 4 phases over to 60 day periods. functions on 17 banks and the $150.00 economic institutions will be lifted. iran will scale back its nuclear ambitions
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and be able to export 15000000 barrels of oil a day. they use foreign policy chief says to run has given what he calls a reasonable response to the proposal to sam brown says he expects the us to reply this week to leave the okay, you understand this to be the points of equilibrium when neither one side nor the other can make things better. it was communicated to the participants of the negotiations. basically, iranians and north americans. and every one british germans, french, chinese, and russian says there was an iranian response, which i consider reasonable. it was transmitted to the united states, the u. s. has not risk on the formerly, but we are waiting for the response to an iran has accused the us of delaying its response. more morning between him, we can talk about this round of talks being fruitful only when the europeans announce that they have received a response by the american law and washington has denied stalling the talks. the
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state department says ron appears to have dropped some of its demands, such as were moving around the revolution regards from its list of terror organizations. president has been clear, he's infirm, he's been consistent, that he will not list the terrorism designation on the i r g z, a runs demand that we do. so has been removed from the latest version of the text that we have seen. and that's part of the reason why a deal is closer now than it was 2 weeks ago. but the outcome of these ongoing discussions, doreen's uncertain as gaps do remain. so how did we get to this point? well, in 2015 iran and 6 wild powers, agreed to a historic deal in limited toronto nuclear activities and allowed international inspectors to monitor it's activities in return, crippling economic sanctions on the country were lifted, that in 2018, the us made
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a unilateral decision to withdraw from the accord under donald trump leadership, washington re impose sanctions, and hereon retaliated by breaching uranium enrichment limits. and 2021. talked to revive the nuclear deal began in vienna. joe biden succeeded trump several rounds have taken place, but a deal has so far been evasive. ah, well, let's bring in our guests now and into rome. we have muhammad mirandi advise of the iranian negotiation team in vienna. in berlin is hammered, razor as easy for the team fellow at the german institute for international and security affairs. and in washington, d. c. is alex tanker senior fellow and founder of the iran program at the middle east institute of a warm welcome to all of you mom and randy. let's start with you because the signs are good, aren't they? is there a workable proposal to revive the 2015 deal on the table?
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well, 1st of all, i have to point out that iran did not withdraw any demand. and i think the americans are trying to solve this at all. i've been saying this for months that removing the guards from the us. terrace lis is not something and isn't, was not a precondition. and i said this often people can check my interviews. i probably said it on al jazeera multiple times, so that the statements coming from washington don't make any sense. iran will continue to have sent com on its terrorist organization list. but yes, i do agree that a lot has been achieved over the past few months. and the iranians were able to gain significant ground on all the different friends with whether sanctions or
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whether it's it has to do with verification or sequencing and assurances and the b u. e. u foreign policy chief. the statement that was quoted earlier on in the package he in it, he says that the iranian proposals or the iranian points that they made in their response were reasonable. so obviously, the paul is not only in the american court denies of the iranian, now by the ha, all, it can court according to the you. so just to be clear on that 1st point that you made mom a deal saying that the iranians were never demanding that the revolution recalls be taken off the terrorist list in the u. s. before the deal could be revived. yes, the iranians never demanded the cars being root removed from the so called f t o
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list, the foreign terrorist organization list, and anyone who doubts that they can use a search engine. check my interviews, probably a few done on al jazeera and on my twitter. alex, is that something that you can corporate that from where you are washington d. c. i don't know what mr. mirandi did on this issue over the last few months. i think the consensus here in washington would certainly be that that was an issue, a rainy we're pressing for hard if i remember right. come on a very senior member of the rainy regime close to i to look harmony. i believe it was a dog forum. you made that point that the revolution guards needed to be off the u . s. terrorism list. so, you know, i don't know exactly where different players were, but this was certainly a factor for a while. and it seems to not be a factor in the moment, at least that's a good say, regardless of the states as it seems to be a moot point, because it appears that the revolution regards a not on the table,
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any more 100, raise a. how close do you think we are guessing? the 2015 deal revived. it's my understanding that we are closer than anytime before, since the re, as far as the negotiations after racy took off, is because, you know, at some points we were actually the same kind of maxim august. the ones on the right hand side, which was somehow, you know, force was not accepted by, by the us sign, but i just recently, you know, on issues like this thing the i see or other points. i think iran has made a lot of, you know, kind of or better to say, a series of reasonable concessions. and that is the reason why joseph 4 of the, you know, foreign policy chief has kind of called the wrong response. reasonable. so at this
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moment i think borrow the statement goes all same for time in the sense that the kind of, in the mention that it's up to the united states now to decide because much whatever the european side could do. i think they have already done, and it was mentioned before, it's kind of a final officer in sort of the positions or basic questions, positions of both part. so that is now the situation. so it's really much up to the united states to be the response to the proposal that alex it's jen, except in a bowl is now in the u. s. in court. but if biden stalling, laura, we have to mid to simple reality here. there's a lot of politics around this issue, both in washington and tara interact. prison raised in is team want to give the
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rainy public the impression that the deal that's about to be born maybe is so much better than have sandra honie whatever negotiated this is part of the radiant factional politics, the so called reform is going to social hardliners each want to be the national champions, didn't playing this game for months. i in the washington, you know, the democratic party is not doing well president, by these approval rating is historic low. he can't afford to see we're not after the debacle enough, dennis don, and all sorts of questions about his having a foreign policy. so he's making sure that, you know, he doesn't look week lot of democrats in congress are already on the fence if not opposing his bill because of political reasons. so, unfortunately, politics in washington into iran is just not helping this diplomatic process. would we agree with that? would do say that the pressure in the political excellence of her on to present a better deal than ru honey, could have negotiated look,
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i was on the, i was with the doctor's that he, in vienna, in 2015 during the whole period of the negotiations the 3 weeks and i was with the current team and yet during the whole period when they were negotiating. and it is very obvious to me that while both teams were did their best. but for whatever reason, the iranians have been able to gain enormous concessions this time round, and in fact, to correct a point that was previous them previously made. mr. hor l said spoke favourably about their points that the iranians made though which were linked to the so called final tax. in other words the iranians were saying this final tax has deficiencies that have to be addressed and mr. burrell, when he read, and when they study the writing proposals he got, he said that they were reasonable. so the united states had to give concessions.
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but the fact is that the right, the concessions that the iranians gained, we're all about implementing the j. c. p. away, nothing more than that. what the americans want to do is have a g p a way where they don't abide by their commitments in full and iranians do so . and he runs are not going to have that again. when obama signed the deal, he systematically violated the deal from day one. he was supposed to help help facilitate the normalization to be run in trade in business. and what he did in reality, through the treasury was threatened banks financial institutions, shipping companies, insurance companies, big business not to work with iran. that was a clear violation of the deal. and then trump tore up the deal, and biden, despite criticising trump. he pursued trumps maximum pressure policy, which was directed at ordinary iranians. so the rhine is looking at the past at american violations, whereas we all know that the needs were biting by their commitments. so this time
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around the run is big game these concessions, basically to make sure that the americans alongside the iranian abide by their commitment. 100 rosa is one of those concessions has been raised in the media. if one of those concessions that the us will face a fine if a future president, again, we next on the deal is that in this proposal. as you know, let's see what we have written here or seen in the media has been based on a list all deal on the right hand side. so there is no concrete detail on the right hand side of that too. so as far as i know, lots based on my understanding, you know, there might be some provisions like you mentioned in terms of the kind of formal line or something like that. as a compensation. if tonight is phase, decides to be there all again. but i seriously doubt that any kind of, you know,
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i guarantee or you know, compensation, lifestyle would be actually implementable because, you know, there is a matter of whether on to what expense, any kind of agreements. i mean, the deal itself would be binding less along the issue of compensation. so i think this is something more related to your, on the 6 politics. because at the end of the day, the system needs to sell their agreements with the public or something stronger than on the matter of this issue. guarantee. it has been something that they have been monitoring on and this might serve that surface next week. understand the iranians lack of trust, given that the us unilaterally pulled out of the form a deal in 2018. but as somebody says, says all the, any guarantees that workable within the u. s. political and legal system. look this short answer to that is no american president guarantee
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a deal permanent. i mean, you need to go through to congress. you need to ratify a treaty to have that, you know, state of course going forward regardless of who is in the white house. now, this, i'm a republic of iran has very few credit friends in the united states congress. and, you know, this is the point that goes back to what we heard just earlier in terms of us intentions. look, number one. it is a mistake, it's a folly and has been from day one to assume that you can have anything that's permanent. the rain inside should have looked at the biting term in office, and it might be a to turn president buying. that might be a one term president, but there was a window of opportunity and instead of working with buyers and they really play politics, but quite a bit, i understand that they didn't want to fall into the same truck again as totally understandable. but they try to pay or make biden pay for the sins of trump,
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if you will. that was a mistake. there are still 2 years left. there's a lot that can be done, negotiated and, and i think you said strategic mistake on the part of the republic of iraq to stick to the nuclear talks along what they need to do. and they should have done this from day one byte and keep the, the white house is to broaden the conversation and admit to the fact that the reigning foreign policy would benefit from being more balanced to talk to the west and not put all their eggs in the basket of the likes of russia and china. this is a political ideological decision islamic republic needs to make if they do that, i think any deal that might be reached will have so much more likelihood to succeed beyond by the presidency. and if there's time, i'd like to talk about something else that you can do, but i'll leave that for now please. yet we will definitely give you more time in a moment, a bomb, a lot of things to answer the and alex is on so, but i just want to put it to you where the iranians, you want him. people might consider that bite and also made
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a mistake and missing the opportunity to renegotiate this deal. and will hon these final, last month and 2021 might have been an easier task. yes, the problem was that bitin wanted more than what he deserves. he wanted iran to implement the deal and full and he wanted the united states again added concessions . that was what truck was after. so why would iran resists trumps, excessive demands and of keys, trump and then then later on and, and refrain from using trump and then later on go in a piece, bided? no, that's. that's, that would be ridiculous. actually what the iranians have done at the negotiations . one thing that they did was that they created inherit insurance, insurances, in other words, if the united states doesn't live up to its obligations, the iranians can very quickly returned enriching uranium at the pace it is doing. now that makes them harkins pay
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a price for leaving the deal. the problem that we had under obama, and by him was his vice president was that the united states didn't pay a price for violating the deal. the problem under trump was at the united states, didn't pay a price for leaving a deal. these negotiations went to, to ensure that the united states pays a price. and this is a good thing for the deal because it protects the deal. if both sides feel that staying in the deal is a better thing is good for the deal. one final point that i'd like to me in that is that in 2015, when the deal was signed, the iranian liter ayatollah. how many said that if the united states abide by its commitments in good faith, other issues could be discussed. and then in that speech you said, although i don't believe the united states will abide by its commitments in good faith, and he was absolutely correct, the united states wasted an opportunity. and why should you run and speak about other issues when the united states is not abiding by,
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it's the commitments that it signed on to. so if the united states in future wants to start talking to the iranians about multiple issues 1st, they have to show that they are reasonable in their obligate with regards to their obligations in any future nuclear deal. ah other dresser, how difficult has it been to try to keep this deal alive as you are the e u member states china, russia also trying to, to keep this deal going when you've got to very different sides who won't even sit at the same table during these particular negotiations. now of course, you know, when you have the 2 sides that are not sure that this one of them is not traded. so they are to negotiate with the other party. and you need to have both a party to the agreement on emotions and also to going to play the role of a media or it's, it's quite difficult and this has been so my understanding one of the main reasons
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that's, you know, it took so long for us to, to the point that we are and this is still kind of on certain situation. but, you know, here, speaking of you, i think the kind of very interesting change in it was because, you know, what, you know before was to somehow play the role mediate or more kind of messenger, you know, that's me, the single kind of reduce the, that all a messenger between you on the united states, but seen as the you can cross, i think we've been witnessing your kind of increase role of the you in terms of comment on its own initiatives like the proposal that we saw. and of course, there's a few reasons like, you know, the potential for your on to go back to the energy market and it's potential for, you know, increasing its own production. the assumptions are remove that also the fact that the european is don't want new or you know, it's in the close. ready neighborhood,
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so these factors, i think i've contributed to more active roles. my dear, okay, i'm not without that. i don't think that we could reach the point that you are absolutely all the other sides actually got israel looming large doing what it can to stop. the deal feels reporting just few days ago that the prime minister ela pete told the us to walk away from these talk somebody we know that to buys and he's taking his time to respond. is this because of israel's leverage within the us? well, i say 2 things about the role of these railways in all of this number one is just put yourself in the shoes israelis. you're sitting there just on a 10000000 people and you have iran not far away a country of 85000000 that has since 970 and i'm about to destroy you. anybody on a human level would have to sympathize with the fears that these ratings have. now
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not for a 2nd defending with israelis are doing to be the palestinians and also some other criticism you can let put at the door of israel. but that a central credit is republic of iran and don't take my word for it. listen to this speech. accommodate will be the supreme court with the system. so 1989. we're just going to jump on a few minutes left. we know the antagonism between israel and iran and just want to know how much israel is steining the u. s. responding to the steel. look, i think there's really, really don't have much of the plan be here. the best i can do is help the united states. they really don't have a military strike option to get to the right. they know it would have done a long time ago. they had it. so all israel really should do is to support the united states in any way possible to make sure that iran and the rest of the will come to an agreement in terms of your program. ok moment. does that, does iran have a plan b if this deal is not revived? but 1st of all, i'd like to say that he runs off position to israel. if i could talk position to
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apartheid, south africa, you run once this system, this racist regime to n, like open the whole bay, but we will, we do have many times there, please that the nuclear dale. well, the iranians, if the united states at this point when both the european and the rhyme, you are saying that the ball is in the us court. if the americans are not reasonable, you run, it will continue to expand their piece from nuclear program. and also we are closing in on winter, the weather is going to get very cold in europe, the europeans are going to suffer. and so as the united states, the price of energy is high. so if the united states wants to ease pressure on ordinary europeans, instead of sacrificing them, they should listen to joseph. well, ok, a 100 raises. you hear there that iran will continue expanding what it calls its peaceful nuclear program. i mean, it has enriched uranium to 60 percent that needs to be in which to 90 percent for
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it to be a nuclear bomb. and we have had the supreme leader senior adviser in july saying that ron is technically capable of making a nuclear bomb. if this deal doesn't happen, how dangerous a situation is, the region in wow, of course, a collision of detentions, especially when you're on israel big you know, of course not as you're either just mentioned, you know, there's not a lot of options that it has, but one option that it has been resorting to has been having these, you know, course activities are going to sit on the clearing for instructions and on the right now the response was actually, you know, excessive the situation. but once you know, there is a kind of recent or something i think regarding the position of view cause, you know, he was energy needs something quite obvious. but then if
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you wanted to also ignore the red lines, they would have already written agreements to trust. you know, you know, this whole debate is about the very fact that europeans have their own deadlines as well. so i don't think that's, you know, you're ongoing further. you know, it's got a thing in the region a little and also still programs would be really helpful in guessing more from the europeans or dinner. ok, a very interesting discussion. indeed, we're going to have to leave it for the moment though mohamad mirandi. i'm going to raise the as easy and alex but time cut. thank you very much for joining us. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. this al jazeera dot com and to further discussion to get to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. it was a doing the conversation on twitter handle is a j inside story. from me laura kyle: i'm the whole team here. it's bye for now. the
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