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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  September 12, 2022 3:30am-4:01am AST

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in, in slowing the money right? no say's outflow with money from the country. the 1st issue, the 2nd issue, this very important. oh, if deals which to the conclusion to day is the income of governments. but again, this uncertainty to continuous of jesse to a case cause problem for us. members of the hate ari on family say they hope iran and the united states can reach an agreement and established peaceful relations that way their business and others might survive for other generations. doors to jabari al jazeera terran. ah, this is al jazeera and these are the top stories. the body of queen elizabeth has been taken to the official residence of the british monarchy in scotland. it has
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been kept at hollywood palace in edinburgh. on monday it will be taken to the city's saint giles cathedral, where the queen will lie at rest. on tuesday, the casket will be flown to london. ellen fisher has moved from edinburgh. 6 and a half hours. it took to drive from bar moral, the place that she loved and the place where she died to get here to edinburgh much longer than normal. but that's because the route was extended. tell people to share in a collective sense of loss, a collective sense of celebration. and really a collective sense of history is the former monarchs car went to aberdeen and then down the main population centers of the east coast. through the city of dundee, the city of discovery is, is known and, and through path, and then over such and well known landmarks as the queensbury crossing which straddles the 4th, the 4th linking 5 to edinburgh, and then down the royal mile. and finally, back here,
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the prime minister of antigua and by buddha says he will hold a referendum on the country becoming a republic. within 3 years, guest on brown made the remark after he signed the documents confirming king charles. the 3rd is the country's new head of state. the country is one of 14 nations to have the british monarch as its hit of state preliminary results and sweden's general election suggest right wing opposition parties could when a slim majority over the ruling center lift block votes is still being counted. and the combined prime minister has not conceded defeat, rising crime, immigration, and the energy crisis were the key election issues of ripples. and ethiopia is to cry. regions say they are ready for a ceasefire and would accept a peace persisted by the african union. the slightest development could potentially in almost 2 years of fighting. there's been a flurry of diplomatic activity ever since a flare up of fighting last month after a period of relative calm. spanish,
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teenager carlos alcaraz has claimed his 1st grand slam title after bidding casper route. in the us open final, the 19 year old becomes the youngest. if a world number one, he's replaced russian. daniel, mit of it. if at the top of the rankings. bows out the headlines, the news continues here after inside story. ah, what's behind the latest set back in the iran nuclear talks? european leaders say they doubt to arouse intentions, to revive the 2015 agreement a charge iran denies. so is
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a deal still possible. this is insight story. ah hello, welcome to the program, our hashem, abala, friends the u. k and germany have raised questions about iran's intentions to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement. this comes days after to her and sent its response to the ears latest proposed taxed for reviving the deal. the 3 western nations se iran's demands are preventing talks from resuming in vienna. earlier this week, the u. n's nuclear watchdog published a report saying it could not verify whether to iran's nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes. the international atomic energy agency said to
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her ran stock piles of up to 60 percent in which uranium has grown by more than 12 kilograms to iran denies having nuclear ambitions. the statement by france, germany and the ok says this latest demand raises serious doubts as to iran's intentions and commitment to a successful outcome on the joint comprehensive plan of action. it goes on to say, iran's position contradicts is legally binding obligations and jeopardizes prospects of restoring the j. c. p. o. a. earlier this week, the u. s. secretary of state antony blank and spoke about iran's response here. some of what had to say in the past weeks, we'd close some gaps around and moved away from some extraneous demands, demands unrelated to the j. c. p, or itself. however, are the latest response, takes us backwards and we're not about to agree to
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a deal that doesn't meet our bottom line requirements. and or that tries to continuously introduce extraneous demands that are not relevant to the j c p, away itself. if we conclude a deal, it's only because it will advance our national security president is focused on that was guitar. guess in a moment. first, let's rewind to how this all began. in 2015 iran and 6 world powers agreed to the historic deal. it was designed to limited runs nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. but in 2018 for president donald trump pulled the us out, calling it the worst deal of any go shattered. and we impose sanctions to harass, responded by scaling back its commitments and enriching uranium levels beyond the agree its capacity. last year talks began in vienna to revive the d. an after job i then came to office by then says iran must curb some of its nuclear activities
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before washington is prepared to rejoin ah, let's bring it in on gus in washington dc. henry, my leverett, former us diplomats former us iran negotiator and to helen. we have a hammer, volunteer media advisor for the iranian negotiating team in vienna and professor of the university of thought. and welcome to the program henry just a few weeks ago. there's this growing sentiment and optimism that the deal was almost there. now that optimism seems to be fading way. why is it? i think 2 things changed here in washington. one was a determination and evaluation by bindings political advisors, that the democrats had a better chance of keeping at least the senate in the upcoming november early 8th
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elections here. there had been a tremendous pessimism that the democrats would keep the senate or the house up until maybe at the beginning of august when president biden's poll numbers started to, to rise significantly. and that has to do as a few things here in our domestic politics. but the idea as a prospect is a general class could routine, at least the senate has made the administration, which has always been hesitant about rejoined in the j. c. p. o, a. it has made it even more hesitant to do so. and has it in to open up what they see is a wide, a wide prospect of criticism from potentially 20 to 24 candidate trump and other republicans who it's very much something that is driven by domestic politics here, and domestic politics in israel, which the biden administration takes very, very seriously in terms of how that affects the domestic politics in the united states. mohammed when the draft text was circulated among the key nations.
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first reports or indications we got from what some powers that for the 1st time iran is not really making any strong objections as to the very essence of that document. now the you n's, watch dog is saying something quite different. they're saying that we cannot give any guarantees whatsoever that iran's nuclear program is exclusively for a peaceful purposes. what has changed? well, these are 2 separate things. the draft document was the result of months of negotiations . and in fact, if the united states and the europeans had been sincere from the beginning, and if they had refrained from dragging their feet this whole time, we would have had something like this draft document 89 months ago. so they've been delaying it all along because they never really wanted a,
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an air tight deal where the iranians would be able to implement the j. c, p. o, a in fall. what they wanted was a deal with ambiguity attacks with ambiguities and loopholes. so the united states, whenever it wants, it could use those loopholes to undermine the dealer to put pressure on iran. so, but this draft document that was circulated a few weeks ago when he, iranians responded to it and they gave their corrections or those thing where they stated the issues that they thought needed to change. the you foreign policy chief said that the iranian response was reasonable. so if the united states had accepted what was on the table, then we would have had a deal. now instead, the americans gave a response which was obvious to the iranians for to be a tactic or a tax delay,
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an agreement. and i agree with her guests in washington. i think that this tactic, this delay is due to the internal issues that team biden face it. so the issue is not really iran, if what iran had put 4 or if you runs responses, which the european union foreign policy chief saw as reasonable. if they accepted then by now we wouldn't. right now we wouldn't being, you will have this discussion. ok, hello. let's, let's try to unpack the whole scenario ears, which are going to play out in the near future. 2015. the agreement was based on 3 key components. first, putting some limitations and limits on the iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. and then the i am going to be monitoring the implementation of that particular agreement. now the i am saying in particular that they're the
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stockpile of he highly in rich rear. irena has grown enough to produce enough fuel for an atomic bomb our. we many, many steps back now to talking about getting closer to talk about a possible agreement. well, i think there is an agreement on the table. and if there is political will in, especially in washington, but in all capitals that, that have an interest in the j. c. p. away. then i think it could be complete, concluded tomorrow. there is an agreement on the table. the idea that there needs to be any further real negotiation, i don't think is, is that serious? there is an agreement on the table. and if there was political well, especially in washington, it would be done. i think the issue of iran's nuclear program is, is a very important one to unpack because this has been going on for, for decades,
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literally for decades. and the united states continues to say, my colleagues here in washington, continue to say that iran is months away from nuclear weapons, weeks away from nicolette and days away from nico adams. and it never happens. and so there's this, there's this sense that the urgency that is being put forward is, is not, is not a real one. and what that does in a way, in some ways it was convenient, it has been convenient to have an emergency. and in terms of a possible iranian breakout, but without that urgency, you have the politics constantly seeping into the process. and so in reality, both you're in washington and i think in israel and there is really officials speaking about this publicly today. there's a sense that iran is not going to get nuclear weapons any time soon. so what's the urgency? why mess up the political, the political situation, both here in the united states, and even more importantly in israel, which is having an election november 1st, which has tremendous political implications for domestic politics. here in the
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united states mohammed when you, when you look of the statement by the international atomic energy agency, the business ng to things, iran has not been really forthcoming when it comes to 2 things. the stop by law of highly enriched uranium and the number of advanced centrifuges. lots of han has installed on which to the fed uranium of the may nuclear facilities, as if they're saying that we cannot of this particular stage. so trust to her on is not really willing to move forward when it comes to putting together something which is just so the full a civilian purposes. well, the international atomic energy agency board of governors is a political body. it is not a technical body. the representatives are designated by governments and western governments have very much influence over the board of directors. in general, they have a disproportionate amount of influence. so that's one issue. the 2nd issue is that
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the head of this organization is someone has always close to the united states the previous had, according to wiki leaks, documents. when he wanted to get elected, he basically told the united states that i'll be with you on all the key issues. if you support and the same issue with the current chief of the body. in fact, before the previous order governors he went to palestine and met israeli regime leaders, despite the fact that there is right, the regime has arguably, or according to some estimates, up to 200 and maybe more nuclear weapons. so he goes to israel right before going back to the 8 to criticize iran, so it is a heavily quote politicized body. iranians have said from the beginning that 1st of all, these issues that are now those accusations that are being made by the international
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atomic energy agency. these are based on claims made by this when the machine. second of all, the iranians are saying that if the i hate their technical expert to sit down with the iranians, they can have this resolved, but it must not be politicize. and all of these claims are made about issues that go back over 2 decades ago. when the iranian diesel nuclear program was in its infancy, the, the program today is far more advanced back then it was clear that there was no nuclear weapon in iran. you run it basically just purchase of a couple of old models of pakistani centrifuges to use them to develop their own. but in any case, the most important issue to for the iranians is that a, these accusations have to be dealt with. the file has to be closed. i was willing to cooperate, but if it remains open, the right hands are saying that the americans will use it after deal the sign to
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put pressure on iran whenever they want. and so there are 2 issues. one is the, the claims made at that at the agency, the ryan is, are saying has to be closed. and the 2nd is, as i said earlier, the, the americans want ambiguities and loopholes and attacks. and the runners are saying it must be airtight. hello, if i may, if these guy may is, i'm a good might my colleague, my colleague in teheran, has a lot of very important points. but the critical issue here, and it's really almost a contradiction. but it's so important to understand is that just as my colleague rightly says that the i, a board of governors is a highly politicized body. almost precisely because of that, there is really no sense here in washington that there's any urgency to stopping iran's nuclear program. they basically said this now for 20 years, there's no urgency to it. without the urgency, it will take something else happening. some other crisis for people here in
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washington to really move towards restoring the j. c. p. away on terms that i think iran and others could accept if that lack of urgency. and it will get potentially worse if the republicans take control of the congress in november and take the white house in 2024. because throughout the trump administration, and many of those people may run for president in 2024 on their public inside. they don't believe that iran has got to reach nuclear breakout any time soon. and so they're very focused on weakening and containing iran. and that's a very difficult place to be in the middle, the negotiation mohammed is to her run, still insisting on a specific document that says that it was there, talks about the need for re assurances from the americas that they would be lifting the sanctions of those live the lifting those sanctions would still be valid, even if joe biden loses the elections on somebody else takes over. i
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don't want to go into details, but the run has have achieved a lot at the negotiating table over the past 78 months or 89 months. and that is one reason why as your guests in washington pointed out, team biden is concerned because they're afraid that if they sign on to this document before the election, that they will come under criticism from trump and also their allies. and in this way, the regime would also feel pressure. so on the one hand, despite the fact that this is a much better document, that when we see what the americans in new york is, wanted to have signed 899 months ago. but we're, so we're, we're not, and we're, while we're not very far away from a final agreement, we're very close. the problem is that the americans don't want to have this discuss
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from my understanding in congress right now. now, there are there though pressures that the europeans are feeling because of the war and ukraine, the global economic crisis. and of course, the tensions that exist across the world, whether over taiwan or, or in europe and u. s. internal problems. the, the rising concerns in europe because of the economic crisis. all of these pressures are work in favor of the signing of a nuclear deal. and also the fact that you run has been expanding its people that their program extensively is, is an incentive for the americans to sign on to the deal. but then again, as your cash, right, the point, your guess in washington, right? the point out there is a paradox here. if the united states truly felt that the iranian nuclear program was there to, to build a nuclear weapon,
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they would have signed the deal by now they would have this over the 89 months. i think my most we saw numerous deadlines where the europeans in the americans were saying after a particular date, we can't continue after that date the jays. if you it doesn't make any sense any more of them. after we pass those that lines, they continue to negotiate. why? because they knew quite well that iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon. if you want wanted nuclear weapon. iran would have had a nuclear weapon a long time ago. so ok, there is center for a deal, but apparently since they know that the iranians are pursuing a nuclear weapon, that particular incentive is, is much weaker than the issue of energy. and obviously all the parties are looking forward to see exactly what happens next. what, what would be the ramifications of a deal or a no deal? hillary if you, when you go back to 32015, a think the key element of the deal. the ticket from a western perspective from an american perspective was putting limits on the
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stockpile and also on the number of central figures that would be sufficient enough to give the americans what was called back then the breakout time of one year. that will give the americans more leverage to see what happens next. now when we see the i e. a saying basically we're concerned about the, the, the stockpile and we're concerned about the number of sentra figures. is it because they would like to rethink the whole notion of the breakout i this time? breakout time is really a, it's a concept that was created. it was a concept created to enable negotiations for the united states to have a more normal relationship with the islamic republic of iran, which is critically important for any major power around the world. because iran, whether you like it or not, you like it's government or not. it is incredibly important country. critically located at the crossroads between europe and asia with tremendous natural resources
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. there's just no getting around that. the breakout concept is not one that is based in science, let alone nucular physics. it is, it created concept and that's why there will, that's why the united states was able to negotiate around it. because you can make concessions, you can compromise because it's not a concept based in science. the problem for the united states and the western countries at this point is that there is not the urgency of the nuclear program that they were able to to focus on in 2015. and my concern is that there will be other issues related to energy security related to shipping, the protection and safety of shipping. there will be other issues as could par, for example, hosts the world cup. in this, in a couple of months, they're going to be real issues in terms of safety and security in the persian gulf . and that will push the united states that will push the europeans to come to some sort of accommodation with teheran. but i'm not so sure it's going to be around
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that the concept of breakout because that one that was one that was just created several years ago. well, i'm a do think that this is just because the was in particular, the b 5 plus one looking forward to cbl, confessions from iran. because ultimately as you've been both of you saying there must be a deal in the near future or otherwise. just going to be further chaos on the spot of the world. all over the past few months, we saw that the united states and europeans were forced to give significant concessions to run. and the framework within which a possible deal of hypothetical deal is signed is much more sound than it was in 2015. it's a much stronger framework, but i think it's quite clear that china wants to deal russia, wants to do the europeans wanted, you know, they're under enormous american pressure. they won't break from the united states.
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that's why they, their statements are in line with washington. once europeans are desperate for to ease pressure, the energy prices to bring them down to ease economic pressure at home. the americans, of course, have a different problem as you're just in washington, rightly pointed out. so we'll have to see how things play out. but we're approaching autumn and winter, and it's going to get colder. and the situation in europe is not going to be good. so the more the americans drag their feet, the more the europeans drag their feet, the more it's going to be, the more it's going to be the tougher it becomes for them in this framework. so while the ron wants to deal the europeans now need it. ok, hillary this has been going on garcia said before for quite some time. do you think as a former diplomat, former us iran negotiator,
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that the key issue could be not necessarily reviving or resurrecting the deal, but the need for redefining what the americans would like to do in the future with the iranians and what kind of iran they would like to see in the future in this part of the world. it is critically important for the united states to come to terms with and accept the islamic republic of iran, as it is, it is an important power. it's important for the middle east. it's important at the crossroads between europe and asia. it's important what so far beyond the nigger issue, i'm so many issues, whether it's energy security, regional security. so many so many things. but the domestic politics in the united states are so constrained that i do not see that happening any time soon. and so it will be very important to have these smaller agreements where at least united states and iran could potentially come to terms or reaching accommodation on, on particular issues that allow each country to, to go forward. ok,
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the world though is change is changing dramatically and how the united states in iran approach this will be critically important for that for the international world order will love for her to would have to live with them. i really appreciate your insights. hillary man, leverett and bob met volunteer. really appreciate your insight and thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website under the law dot com for further discussion. go to all facebook page, thus facebook dot com forward slash ha. i saw you can also join the conversation on twitter. i'll 100 is at ha, and so i sorted from yahoo! i'm on the entire team here in doha bye for know. ah ah.
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and beneath the surface lies a darker side in british politics, i'm exclusive al jazeera investigation coming scene. this was the moment the likes of which we've never seen. this is important. this is your story from breaking down the headlines to exposing the powers attempting to silence reporting . we're seeing your freedom being threatened and attacked is basically criminalizing journalism. the listening post doesn't cover the news. it covers the way the news is covered. people have no idea what the source of uses bad, the gambit broad. i'm very broad for the. on al jazeera, examining today's headlines. we cannot liberal good is good at this hop flight for
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titanic heading for the iceberg. setting the discussions, the fall of our canister is going to stay with every single ask and for the rest of their life sharing personal stories with the global audience. our body is trying to me, it is about our own. all right, programs that open your eyes to an alternative view of the world today. on al jazeera, an astonishing film documenting 2 decades in one of the most embattled corners of the globe. the child of afghanistan, 20 years of war, follows mia from boyhood to manhood. a life that has no peace shaped by hardship resilience and adventure. the unique film that captures the conflict in a way it has never been seen before. witness on al jazeera september on al jazeera world leaders from a 193 members,
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states gathered that the united nations general assembly with the war in ukraine and the global cost of living crisis. high on the agenda, up front returns mclamore hill, talk through the headline, challenge the conventional wisdom, italy that the right wing party fortelli italia, is a head in the polls. could a decisive victory overcome the gridlock faced by recent government. the listening post examines and dissects the wealth media, how they operate, and the stories they cover with rising prices, causing hardship and discontent across the globe. we were put on the human cough and that'll attempt a tackling the crisis september on al jazeera. ah . until mccray in doha, the top stories on al jazeera.

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