tv Inside Story Al Jazeera September 12, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST
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preliminary results suggested the right wing alliance has taken a narrow lead. a wind would put the sweden democrats in power for the 1st time replacing prime minister magdalena understand. just 10 months of she took charge full rece reports from stockholm, swedish prime minister magdalena and the sean casts, a vote in stockholm. her last contribution and a campaign to stop by right wing coalition taking power. i will always find it rather emotional to go voting and this is really, yeah, fantastic. day for democracy today, we're every vote counts the exit polls suggested those votes would count in favor of ambitions left wing alliance. but as the count went on, the opposition led by oath krista, son of the moderate party, went into the lead herself. as on the sean tried to keep her supporters spirits up the social democrats giving a rapturous reception to that leda deployment of magdalena on the phone. but the
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conference has been, have been away. i made increasingly foils and speeches from the right wing opposition. the most triumphant of all would come from ye me, orchestra leader of the sweden democrats, a pariah party, with 5 percent of the vote just a few elections ago. they now looked like topping 20 percent and overtaking their allies. the moderates as the 2nd biggest in sweden, their policies assented on battling sweden's record high levels of crime, linking it with the mass immigration of the past decade. but they've also succeeded in reaching immigrant voters themselves. alan baggage amana born in rwanda has voted for orcus and in the selection. you order of all duellist w moccasin as i voted for the sweden democrats, because they've been serious about migration politics, crime and gang shootings. i don't see them as racist. they prioritize sweden. i'm of immigrant background myself. i see sweden as my country. if i thought they were
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racist, i wouldn't vote for them yourself, but the party's extreme right routes are not easy to shake off. though may i get in the i saw them call the slay. they are founded on a nazi and racist ideology. i will absolutely not vote for the it's not even in christian, and i will not vote in a party that works with him either be a feminine man, christensen's willingness to work with the sweden. democrats has brought them a step closer to a part in sweden's next government. by the end of sunday, their coalition led by a 176 seats, 273, but final counting isn't due to finish until wednesday. paul reese out, is there stock? i'm spanish teenager. cos alcaraz has claimed his 1st grand slam title after beating. caspar rude in the us open final when i t v ro becomes the youngest ever wolf. number one, he's replaced russian. darnell met the death at the top of the rankings just wanna
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show you the latest pictures from it brought the plane carrying king charles the 3rd has now arrived in the scottish capital that he will lead a royal procession accompanying his mother's coffin at saint giles cathedral. our coverage of the death of queen elizabeth the 2nd and the royal accession continuously on al jazeera of the inside story. ah, what's behind the latest setback in the iran nuclear taught european leader say they doubt our rounds intentions to revive the 2015 agreement a charge iran denies. so is
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a deal still possible. this is inside story. ah hello, welcome to the program, our hashem, abala, friends the u. k and germany have raised questions about iran's intentions to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement. this comes days after to her and sent its response to the ears latest proposed taxed for reviving the deal. the 3 western nations say iran's demands are preventing talks from resuming in vienna. earlier this week, the winds nuclear watchdog published a report saying it could not verify whether to iran's nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes. the international atomic energy agency said to her ran stock piles of up to 60 percent in which uranium has grown by more than 12
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kilograms to iran denies having nuclear ambitions. the statement by france, germany and the ok says this latest demand raises serious doubts as to iran's intentions and commitment to a successful outcome on the joint comprehensive plan of action. it goes on to say, iran's position contradicts is legally binding obligations and jeopardizes prospects of restoring the j cpa. earlier this week, the u. s. secretary of state, anton unblinking, spoke about iran's response here. some of what had to say in the past weeks, we'd close some gaps around and moved away from some extraneous demands, demands unrelated to the j. c. p or itself. however, or the latest response takes us backwards. um, and we're not about to agree to
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a deal that doesn't meet our bottom line requirements. and or that tries to continuously introduce extraneous demands that are, are not relevant to the j. c p, away itself. or if we conclude a deal, it's only because it will advance our national security president is focused on that. we'll go to our guests in a moment. first, let's rewind to how this all began. in 2015 iran and 6 world powers agreed to the historic deal. it was designed to limited runs nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. but in 2018 for president donald trump pulled the us out, calling it the worst deal of any go shattered. and we impose sanctions to harass, responded by scaling back its commitments and enriching uranium levels beyond the agree. it's capacity. last year talks began in vienna to revive the deal after job . i then came to office by then says iran bust curb some of its nuclear activities
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before washington is prepared to rejoin ah, let's bring it in on gus in washington dc. henry, my leverett, former us diplomats former us iran negotiator and to helen. we have a hammer, volunteer media advisor for the iranian negotiating team in vienna and professor of the university of thought on welcome to the program, henry just a few weeks ago. there's this growing sentiment and optimism that the deal was almost there. now that optimism seems to be fading away. why is it? i think 2 things changed up here in washington. one was a determination and evaluation by biden's political advisors, that the democrats had a better chance of keeping at least the senate in the upcoming november early 8th
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elections. here. there had been a tremendous pessimism that the democrats would keep the senate or the house up until may be at the beginning of august when president biden's poll numbers started to, to rise significantly. and that has to do as a few things here in our domestic politics. but the idea of the prospect that the general class could routine, at least the senate, has made the administration, which has always been hesitant about rejoined in the j. c. p. o, a. it has made it even more hesitant to do so. and has it in to open up what they see is a wide, a wide prospect of criticism from potentially 20 to 24 candidate trump. and other republicans will. it's very much something that's driven by domestic politics here, and domestic politics in israel, which the botany ministration. takes very, very seriously in terms of how that affects the domestic politics in the united states. mohammed when the draft text was circulated among the key nations.
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first reports or indications we got from western powers that for the 1st time, iran is not really making any strong objections as to the very essence of that document. now the you n's, watch dog is saying something quite different. they're saying that we cannot give any guarantees whatsoever that iran's nuclear program is exclusively of for a peaceful purposes. what has changed? well, these are 2 separate things. the draft document was the result of months of negotiations . and in fact, if the united states and the europeans had been sincere from the beginning, and if they had refrained from dragging their feet this whole time, we would have had something like this draft document 89 months ago. so they've been delaying it all along because they never really wanted a,
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an air tight deal where the iranians would be able to implement the j. c, p. o, a in fall. what they wanted was a deal with ambiguity attacks with ambiguities and loopholes. so the united states, whenever it wants, it could use those loopholes to undermine the dealer to put pressure on iran. so, but this draft document that was circulated a few weeks ago when iranians responded to it and they gave their corrections, or those thing where they stated the issues that they thought needed to change. the you foreign policy chief said that the iranian response was reasonable. so if the united states had accepted what was on the table, then we would have had a deal. now instead, the americans gave a response which was obvious to the iranians are to be a tactic or a tax delay,
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an agreement. and i agree with her guests in washington. i think that this tactic, this delay is due to the internal issues that team biden face it. so the issue is not really iran, if what iran had put 4 or if you runs responses, which the european union foreign policy chief saw as reasonable. if they've accepted then by now we wouldn't. right now we wouldn't be. you will have this discussion. ok, hello. let's, let's try to unpack the whole scenario ears, which are going to play out in the near future. 2015. the agreement was based on 3 key components. first, putting some limitations and limit on the iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. and then the i am going to be monitoring the implementation of that particular agreement. now the i am saying in particular that they're the stop
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by and of he highly in rich rear. irena has grown enough to produce enough fuel for an atomic bomb. our we many, many steps back now to talking about getting closer to talk about a possible agreement. well, i think there is an agreement on the table. and if there is political will in, especially in washington, but in all capitals that have an interest in the j. c. p. away, then i think it could be complete, concluded to morrow. there is an agreement on the table. the idea that there needs to be any further real negotiation, i don't think is, is that serious? there is an agreement on the table. and if there was political well, especially in washington, it would be done. i think the issue of iran's nuclear program is, is a very important one to unpack because this has been going on for, for decades,
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literally for decades. and the united states continues to say, my colleagues here in washington, continue to say that iran is months away from nuclear weapons, weeks away from nicolette and days away from nico athens. and it never happens. and so there's, is that there's this sense that the urgency that is being put forward is, is not, is not a real one. and what that does in a way, in some ways it was convenient, it has been convenient to have an emergency. and in terms of a possible iranian breakout, but without that urgency, you have the politics constantly seeping into the process. and so in reality, both you're in washington and i think in israel and there is really officials speaking about this publicly today. there's a sense that iran is not going to get nuclear weapons any time soon. so what's the urgency? why mess up the political, the political situation, both here in the united states, and even more importantly in israel, which is having an election november 1st, which has tremendous political implications for domestic politics. here in the
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united states mohammed when you, when you look of the statement by the international atomic energy agency, the business ng to things, iran has not been really forthcoming when it comes to 2 things. the stock by law of highly enriched uranium and the number of advanced centrifuges that's a han has installed on which to the fed uranium of the main nuclear facilities as if they're saying that we cannot of this particular stage. so trust to her on is not really when to move forward when it comes to putting together something which is just so the full a civilian purposes. well, the international atomic energy agency board of governors is a political body. it is not a technical body. the representatives are designated by governments and western governments have very much influence over the board of directors. in general, they have a disproportionate amount of influence. so that's one issue. the 2nd issue is that
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the head of this organization is someone has always close to the united states the previous had, according to wiki leaks, documents. when he wanted to get elected, he basically told the united states that i'll be with you on all the key issues. if you support and the same issue with the current chief of the body. in fact, before the previous board of governors, he went to palestine and met israeli regime leaders, despite the fact that there is right, the regime has arguably, or according to some estimates, up to 200 and maybe more nuclear weapons. so he goes to israel right before going back to the i 8 to criticize iran, so it is a heavily quote politicized body. iranians have said from the beginning that 1st of all, these issues that are now those accusations that are being made by the international
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atomic energy agency. these are based on claims made by this when the machine. second of all, the iranians are saying that if the i hate their technical expert sit down with the iranians, they can have this resolved, but it must not be politicize. and all of these claims are made about issues that go back over 2 decades ago when the iranian diesel nuclear program was in its infancy. the, the program today is far more advanced back then it was clear that there was no nuclear weapon in iran, you run it basically just purchase of a couple of old models of pakistani centrifuges to use them to develop their own. but in any case, the most important issue to for the iranians is that a, these accusations have to be dealt with. the file has to be closed. i was willing to cooperate, but if it remains open the right answer saying that the americans will use it after
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deal the sign to put pressure on iran whenever they want. and so there are 2 issues . one is the, the claims made at that, at the agency. the rhine is, are saying has to be closed. and the 2nd is, as i said earlier, the americans want ambiguities, and loopholes and attacks and iran has are saying it must be airtight. hello, if i may, if these guy may is, i'm a good might my colleague, my colleague in teheran, has a lot of very important points. but the critical issue here, and it's really almost a contradiction. but it's so important to understand is that just as my colleague rightly says that the i, a board of governors is a highly politicized body. almost precisely because of that, there is really no sense here in washington that there's any urgency to stopping iran's nuclear program. they basically said this now for 20 years, there's no urgency to it. without the urgency, it will take something else happening. some other crisis for people here in
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washington to really move towards restoring the j. c. p. away on terms that i think iran and others could accept. it's that lack of urgency and it will get potentially worse if the republicans take control of the congress in november and take the white house in 2024. because throughout the trump administration, and many of those people may run for president in 2024 under public inside. they don't believe that iran has got to reach nuclear breakout any time soon. and so they're very focused on weakening and containing iran. and that's a very difficult place to be in the middle, the negotiation, muhammad is to her run, still insisting on a specific document that says that the well talks about the need for re assurances from the americas, that they would be lifting the sanctions and the, those are the lifting, those sanctions will still be valid even if joe biden loses the elections on
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somebody else takes over. well, i don't want to go into the details, but the run has have achieved a lot at the negotiating table over the past 78 months or 89 months. and that is one reason why as your guests in washington pointed out, team biden is concerned because they're afraid that if they sign on to this document before the election, that they will come under criticism from trump and also their allies. and in this way, the regime would also feel pressure. so on the one hand, despite the fact that this is a much better document, that what we see, what the americans and europeans wanted to have signed 899 months ago. but we're, we're, we're not. and we're, while we're not very far away from a final agreement, we're very close. the problem is that the americans don't want to have this discuss
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from my understanding in congress right now. now, there are there though pressures that the europeans are feeling because of the war and ukraine, the global economic crisis. and of course, the tensions that exist across the world, whether over taiwan or, or in europe and u. s. internal problems. the, the rising concerns in europe because of the economic crisis. all of these pressures are work in favor of the signing of a nuclear deal. and also the fact that iran has been expanding its people that the program extensively is, is an incentive for the americans to sign on to the deal. but then again, as your cash, right, the point your guess in washington, right? the point out there is a paradox. here, if the united states truly felt that the iranian nuclear program was there to, to build a nuclear weapon they would assign to deal by now they would have been over the 89
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months my most we saw numerous deadlines where the europeans and americans were saying after a particular date, we can't continue. after that date, the j. c viewing doesn't make any sense any more of them. after we pass those that lines, they continue to negotiate. why? because they knew quite well that your mind is not pursuing a nuclear weapon. if you run wanted to nuclear weapons, iran would have had in their weapon a long time ago. so ok, there is santa, for a deal, but apparently since they know that the miners are pursuing a nuclear weapon, that particular incentive is much weaker than the issue of energy. and obviously all the parties are looking forward to see exactly what happens next. what, what would be the ramifications of a deal or a no deal? hillary if you, when you go back to 3rd, 2015, a think the key elemental, the deal. the ticket from a western perspective from an american perspective was putting limits on the
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stockpile. and also on the number of santa fisher's there would be sufficient enough to give the americans what was called back then the breakout time of one year. that will give the americans more leverage to see what happens next. now when we see the i a e a saying basically we're concerned about the, the, the stockpile and we're concerned about the number of sentra figures. is it because they would like to rethink the whole notion of the breakout i this time? breakout time is really a, it's a concept that was created. it was a concept created to enable negotiations for the united states to have a more normal relationship with the islamic republic of iran, which is critically important for any major power around the world. because iran, whether you like it or not, you like it's government or not. it is incredibly important country. critically located at the crossroads between europe and asia with tremendous natural resources
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. there's just no getting around that. the breakout concept is not one that is based in science, let alone nuclear physics. it is, it created concepts and that's why there will, that's why the united states was able to negotiate around it. because you can make concessions, you can compromise because it's not a concept based in science. the problem for the united states and the western countries at this point is that there is not the urgency of the nuclear program that they were able to to focus on in 2015. and my concern is that there will be other issues related to energy security related to shipping, the protection and safety of shipping. there will be other issues as cooper, for example, hosts the world cup. in this, in a couple of months, they're going to be real issues in terms of safety and security in the persian gulf . and that will push the united states that will push the europeans to come to some sort of accommodation with teheran. but i'm not so sure it's going to be around
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that the concept of breakout because that one that was one that was just created several years ago. well, i'm a do think that this is just because the was in particular, the b 5 plus one looking forward to cbl, confessions from iran. because ultimately as you've been both of you saying there must be a deal in the near future or otherwise. just going to be further chaos on the spot of the world. all over the past few months, we saw that the united states and europeans were forced to give significant concessions to run. and the framework within which a possible deal of hypothetical deal is signed is much more sound than it was in 2015. it's a much stronger framework, but i think it's quite clear that china wants to deal russia, wants to do the europeans wanted, you know, they're under normal american pressure. they won't break from the united states.
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that's why their statements are in line with washington. once europeans are desperate for to ease pressure, the energy prices to bring them down to ease economic pressure at home. the americans, of course, have a different problem as you're just in washington, rightly pointed out. so we'll have to see how things play out. but we're approaching autumn and winter, and it's going to get colder. and the situation in europe is not going to be good. so the more the americans drag their feet, the more the europeans drag their feet, the more it's going to be, the more warranty. because the tougher it becomes for them in this framework. so while the ron wants to deal the europeans now need it. ok. hillary. this has been going on. garcia said before for quite some time. do you think as a form of diplomat, former us iran negotiator,
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that the key issue could be not necessarily reviving or resurrecting the deal, but the need for redefining what the americans would like to do in the future with the iranians and what kind of iran they would like to see in the future in this part of the world. it is critically important for the united states to come to terms with and accept the islamic republic of iran, as it is, it is an important power. it's important for the middle east. it's important at the crossroads between europe and asia. it's important what so far beyond the nigger issue, i'm so many issues, whether it's energy security, regional security. so many so many thing, but the domestic politics in the united states are so constrained that i do not see that happening any time soon. and so it will be very important to have these smaller agreements where at least united states and iran could potentially come to terms or reach an accommodation on, on particular issues that allow each country to, to go forward. ok,
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the world though is change is changing dramatically and how the united states and iran approach this will be critically important for that further. international world order will love us, it would have to leave with them. i really appreciate your insights. hillary man, leverett and bob met volunteer. really appreciate you. insight and thank you for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com for further discussion, go to our facebook page, thus facebook dot com forward slash ha. i saw you can also join the conversation on twitter. i'll 100 is at ha, inside florida from joshua on the entire team here in doha. bye for know. ah ah
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