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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  September 28, 2022 10:30am-11:01am AST

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pirate crisis are unprecedented. the boon to help clusters. they don't have what. and that is way you realize that it was the human themself. they are now going to underground water. we don't have what are moving into strips back at the village. residents take tons keeping watch to scare off any elephants, but the also know the big grazers need water. it's a delicate balance of survival. katherine saw al jazeera, some bull county and nothin kenya. scientists and shelly have found remains of elephants that are 12000 years old. the bones were found near glacial lake and the country's south, large creatures called and gone for thursday, weighed up to 4 tons on extinct relative of modern animals. ah,
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this is altos. air on these are the top stories. now russian backs authorities and for occupied regions of ukraine. so the results of the 5 day referendum show at the vast majority of people have voted to join russia. cave and it's western allies say the results are not valid. char stratford explains reaction funky when it's allies to the referendums. they are describing this referendum as a complete sham, lacking any kind of legal basis on the international, in an international context. what so ever we've had reaction already from the ukraine in foreign minister, dimitra co labor. he's calling for even tougher sanctions from the you. in his words, he says that the softer the reaction is from the european union. for the greater that, sir, we'll give russia even more motivation to potentially try at least to annex even more territory. and the senior russian official has issued the biggest nuclear
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threat so far in the war in ukraine for my president to meet him. and yet, if he says he believes nato won't intervene, if russia decides to attack the country with nuclear weapons. hearken in has knocked out power across the entire island of cuba. the category 3 hurricane made than fall on tuesday morning with winds of up to 205 kilometers for about 40000 people have been forced to flee their hands. european commission present a slip. vaughn de lion has described the disruption at 2 major gas pipelines between russia, europe, as sabotaged denmark and sweden reported leaks in the nor did stream one and 2 pipelines earlier on wednesday. in the us government has been the minority organization called the on the front of india for 5 years. the government accuses a group of being involved in anti national and terrorism related activities. balance has broken out in dozens of cities in iran during protests, over the death of a 22 year old women in police custody rights group says at least $76.00 people have
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been killed in the unrest. my son in he died after being detained. my so called morality police, not 4 feet wearing her hija. or that was all the headlines in use continues here in al jazeera, that's after inside story. what happens in new york has implications all around the world to make these stories resonate requires talking to everyday people, the mayor of the city and out the doing away with the current view that was supposed to get everybody. it's international perspective with the human touch zooming way in and then pulling back out again. the british pound crashes to an all time low against the us dollar. it follows the u. k. government's drastic tax cutting move to fight inflation. what a fool out on and already struggling economy both in the u. k. and outside. this is inside stored. ah
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hello and welcome to the program. i'm has them seek out the british pound is struggling to hold value against the us dollar after hitting an all time low. it recover slightly on monday, after plunging, nearly 5 percent fall is raising concerns about the world 6 biggest economy and its appeal to international investors. on friday, the new british government unveiled major tax cuts based on borrowed money, and many are concerned about the amount that's needed. that's led to days of volatility in the value of sterling and undermine its status as a reserve currency. our correspondent charlie angela has more for us from london, utter an anxious thought the pounds used to be clawing back some of its losses and steadied somewhat. but the public investors and banks understand to be still very
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nervous and they're placing much of the blame on charts like crazy question. asking what is planned for balance. the largest tax got in 50 years, and the child will be meeting with some top bankers in senior city figures later on tuesday and plan talk that will probably evolve into form a crisis meeting. and that's the interest rate predictions. oh, ready, rising britain's now looking at a interest rate of 5.8 percent this time next year. huge height of lawsuits predicted of just 4.5 percent. as a result were think some mortgage lenders for the poor product from the market, worried that they would be able to meet their margin so that people will be able to make their repayments and that is going to be a huge blow. the people who were trying to get on the property market or needed to re mortgage the properties all at a time when the cost of living in this country is increasing faster freight in 40 years, their businesses and markets off. they were looking to the bank of england for some
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decisive action, but we'll have to wait until their next meeting on november 3rd. the government however says it will bring for the day a plan to publish it. media and fiscal policy from next year to november, 23rd, but that's still 9 trading weeks away. what's needed right now is confidence. instability that the market's need to see a macro economic plan that they believe it or the opposition party wasted no time. giving its burdick labors shadow chancellor. rachel reeves accused the government of gambling and said the british taxpayer will pay the price. sterling is down. that means higher prices at the costs of imports rise. the cost of government borrowing is up. that means more taxpayers, money will go into paying the interest on our government debt. and in turn, that means the cost of boring working people will now go up to. so how will
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a falling pound affect people? all the u. k. imports more than half of its food, so the cost of everything from apples to coffee will go up. the rise will be especially notable in goods traded in u. s. dollars like orland gas, lower income found families will be the hardest hit with their earnings having to stretch even further with winter approaching. heating costs are another concern. brings money also won't go as far as if they travel to the u. s. or 2 countries using the dollar for, for taurus the drop in the pound means it will be cheaper to visit the u. k. ah, the july jesus is getting worse and worse and worse, a poor right now they're on lower incomes. they're struggling. they're struggling with the heating and their bills. everything is going up. why would they be cutting it for the people in the higher income wreckage ridiculous? london is getting worse. things getting worse, to be honest. you could argue that it's still a good strategy because it will attract sort of businesses to come in or set up to
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establish reason in london. so to that extent brought up, perhaps it is a good decision. but on the other hand, again, is going to reduce the overall say for instance, the money that can be locked here, allocated to ratify benefits. st. close 2nd is going to be spent at the challenge. but yeah, i yeah, it's good to have many boucher, i just wish that during this time of national crisis that we were spending a bit we were a nuisance to meet. you know, what does that mean for me now? and then some of the fun things i was just at covent garden and walking along the shops there and deliberately not going in from places like that. that's a big class. that's a big difference when you get mor bang for your back. might want to problem, of course, by doing this i, you can spend money on purchasing bank is a good time to do it because we're not earning house. ah, well, let's bring in, i guess. now in london,
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we have vicky price chief economic adviser at the center for economics and business research in dublin, brian lucy, professor of international finance and commodities, a trinity business school. and also in london, jonathan lays, journalist and political common take. good to have you with us. so vicky price, let me start with you. it's being called trust nomics this, these tax cuts named after the, the new british prime minister. clearly they haven't gone down well with the financial markets. why is that? the real problem has been the the chancellor who is newly appointed of course by this trust, the new prime minister announced a mini budget. we will call it that, which wasn't very many a tool, but actually introduce a tax cuts to the tune of $45000000000.00 pounds, which is the biggest size of tax because we've seen since 1972 and it made people
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worry about the inflationary impact of this but also how that injection into the economy if you like, would be funded. so what happened, of course as a result, not only did sterling suffer because there were concerns that the inflationary element would be quite significant of those new measures. but also of course, bond market reacted very negatively and we've seen yields rise very significantly. in other words, the interest rates that people want to have is prepared to lend to the u. k. government, they've risen to over 4 percent. and that's huge because if you remember just a year ago yield, don't any government bonds were below one percent. and now we are about 4 percent. that's a very substantial increase in interest rates, which is going to be felt throughout the economy because loads and loads of long term rates are based on those yields. why is this affecting the pound so much? why? why? why is the pounds fallen so protect precipitously and in the last few days?
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but the one reason, of course, is that inflation now used to be a little bit higher. now remember of course that we had a budget mini budget, which not only of course, injected this extra money into the economy, but also gave the amounts of money that would be needed for an electricity price freeze, which was introduced also by the new government. but of course, we hadn't heard some of the details now that the electricity price raised itself should be bringing inflation down quite significantly by possibly 4 percentage points. so the bank of england was quite right to raise interest rates by just 50 basis points the day before that was september 22nd. the market didn't like it very much because everyone else has been raising interest rates recently by point 75 percent. but nevertheless, i think it made sense because those where the inflationary projections are now being made, then you added, oh, the real worry of this and funded budget and all the money that would be coming to the economy,
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fueling inflation again. so at the mark as decided was that actually that interest rate increase wasn't sufficient because now you have, once again, an increase in inflation or expectations because of that. so the pound suffered because there wasn't an underpinning interest rate support if you like to keep the, the currency up. and that's why the punch, the pumped brian loosely, what does this mean for the rest of the world as well for the, for the companies that do business or with the u. k and for others would want to invest there in the future. i think if you were a company that was selling into the u. k, so you've got a problem with depreciation in the sense that it makes stuff more expensive for people in the u. k. but the nature of the tax cuts is incredibly skewed. and it really is the case that this is wonderful if you're selling caviar, high quality leather goods or other forms of consumption for, for the very rich. the vast majority,
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people in the u. k. aren't going to see any benefit from these tax cuts except as wiki has said in terms of inflation. busy so overall i would say this makes for number e z u k, a less attractive place to do business. the big problem is not the particular issues in governments. fit around with tax cuts on interest rate changes happen all the time. the difficulty is that there seems to be a degree, lien, coherence, and even bordering on incompetence around what's going on. and that doesn't foster that doesn't foster any degree of, of credibility for the last 67 years. you k has been looking like an increasingly economically incoherent office, starting from breakfast, then through the negotiations, which resulted in about the hardest friends a chart of the board of trade organization which is still something desired by the intellectuals, as it were behind the tory party through now, a series of, of, of events which have, you know,
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under cause the event coming in inflation fighting efforts. and we know from bitter experience in the 19 seventies and early eighties that in the long term, inflation is very destructive. all the countries well being. so it's, it's kind of strange that you got a chancellor who has a ph. d, which was on the a u. k. starting crisis in the 17th century, who has heard from cellphone is 4 factions, arguably precipitating a, started cross. it has to be remembered that much. so the u. k. government might think starting is not read the words, reserve currency, just a dollar. and while it is highly desired and highly demanded and held as a reserve isis liquid reserves by the bank of england should they think so desirous of intervening directly in the foreign exchange. markets are very, very limited. that financial times today, estimates that they are approximately
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a $100000000000.00, which is really a drop in the ocean. and you consider how much starting this traders. so it's not the individual elements. it's the death by 1000 cuts of the myth of the tories is big a party of good economic competence that i think will be the long run rate problem here. jonathan liz, this is being seen as a huge political gamble for the british prime minister. and whenever a new lead comes into the job, their political capital is normally at its highest so has least trust, essentially put down all her chips on this list. troth, estate, the entire house on this political gamble, and by any measure she has lost, as he sent a not, not too early to say that well, a was in a lease trust his plan to crush the pound. i presume a wasn't in this trust his plan to have an emergency statement by the bank of
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england suggesting that they might have to raise interest rates before the next scheduled meeting of the monetary policy committee. i do think it could have been in this trust is plans to see storing interest rates, which again to see mortgage rate increased by several 100 pounds for homeowners with mortgages. he les, not forget one of the bases of the tory party that voted based that actually the demographic which turned much of the north and mittens for the conservative party in 2019. and so this is the political, as well as an economic disaster. and i suppose the investors are a bit like predators in horror films. they kind of, they can sense panic. they can, they can see when people don't exactly know what they're doing. at the moment, both the government, the bank of england, are in a position of extreme weakness,
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not least because they are pulling the leaders in different directions. the government is trying to accelerate the economy, was the bank of england is putting a brake on it by raising interest rates. and investors can see there is no hearing in that plan. and as a result, they are taking fright and taking sterling out with them. yeah, let's talk a little bit more about that clash between the government and the bank of england and their priorities because the bank of england, like many countries in the world doesn't enjoy a certain level of independence. they can set the interest rates with this sort of growth focused goal of, of least trust. is it funded mentally at odds with, with the inflation fighting mission of, of the bank of england. but i would agree that there is a bit of as gets a funding existence right now between the government and the bank of england. the bank of england isn't data you rightly say independent, although there had been some hence during the campaigns for deciding the new tory
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leader, the less trust was questioning the independence of the central bank. are some aspects of it. now that independence is very important, but of course the limits of the have which is given to them by the government, by the chancellor is to keep inflation at 2 percent target if they can. now of course i target has been hugely exceeded in reality in the sense that we now have 10 percent inflation of thereabouts. but it's no dissimilar to what's happening in the us, what's happening and inquire about the countries, of course, in continental europe or also the c b. he's also having this particular problem. in fact, if you look at some of the countries in europe, particularly those that are boarded in russia, we've had inflation of over 20 percent for a quite a few months now. so the reason to doubt that we've got a problem if whatever you're trying to do on the fiscal front is negated by what happens on the financial front. and the way in which the government has gone about
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trying to get more growth inevitably led to this reaction in terms of interest rates, not just where the bank of england does, but also more importantly, i think what's happening in the bond market. so interest rate is going up is as jonathan was jesting, pretty, pretty dreadful for a number. busy of individuals, of course, for a very large number of households, but also will be picked about for business, which have just been quite happy to see a bit of relief from the energy from even though it's short term. and we'll see what happens next. and now being hit by this, and it's not surprising that all the data we already have in terms of consumer confidence and business confidence has tend to move downwards. and i think what's been happening last few days, it will move it down, was even further. so a how the whole thing would be resolved, of course, is the question mark, but i have to say it, this is not the only country where this is happening, but it is been shown in a more vivid foam because of this many budget which was unexpected. in its,
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in its size and which the market cindy believe is unfunded, and therefore pausing loads of problems of economy. brian lucy, what's your take on? they said this sort of, this is conflict between the i did the government and the bank of england, and they're, they're mixed priorities. it's not mix priorities. these are absolutely orthogonal priorities. the only way in which this can work is if the economy grows through these massive tax cuts and this is reaganomics and but in $92.00 with the ghost of the laffer curve trickle down economics, which is just buncombe. i mean, this is voodoo economics is george bush famously once called us before proceeding to keep implementing it. one thing the reagan at reagan, i'm excited was to absolutely balloon out the u. k. now the u. s. national desk and just doing, doing the saying no for a medium sized economy facing significant problems already is as will
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said, not just that into house with that in the children's houses. the logical end game here for you government is to reduce the independence of the bank of england. now don't think that they cannot make sense at all, but that is the logical end game. you could, you can see the story where they say, look, the bank of england are shuffling our ability to grow the economy, to tax cuts and restructuring, therefore, must reduce independence because interest rate rises are a bad thing in this context. that's politically sensible, political here. but ends up economically in an incredibly bad place. and i think the u. k is in danger of us because we are not seeing we have not seen for the last 7 years. is economic technocratic, sensible decisions. we've seen increasingly friendly logical decisions driving, driving economic outcomes, and there's no evidence about or illogical based economics is being
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reduced in any way. in fact, if anything it has become sharper focus with the election by 83000 people very. ready representative of the u. k. population of extreme, the right wing economically right wing governments. jonathan lisa, how did the conservative does the conservative government to recover from this politically and the political fall out over this? because the optics of this on the surface certainly don't appear to be good. you know, this tax cuts at the mostly the riches people will benefit from in the middle of a cost of living crisis energy crisis and so on. i think you've hit the nail on the head that's they have sabotaged themselves politically. i suppose the big point days that this actually wasn't an economic measure on 5. this wasn't an economic and he bought it. this was a political act. this is most faced by politics more than economics, which is why
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a economists were condemning it. markets were voting with their feet because it made no sense economically. at least trust her. an overriding mission is to promote grace, but that means that she made all the music she in her chancellor made a not going to promote grace on some of the from the headline. the headline, the bills such as i to, to remove the 45 p additional rates of tox, on the nice wealthy people in society. and to left the e cap on bankers business days, which is entities off the financial crash and not going to promote growth. really, a tool evidence suggests that those measures might really effect great either way. but they are political measures to chime with a hard, right? conservative ideology which favors the ridge, particularly in the eyes of labour cliches of concern to thinking the conservative or walk in stock cliche,
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favors the rich of the rich and allows the super rich to benefit nice from type, leaving the poorest with almost no benefits whatsoever. so that is the kind of the, the policy platform which trust has not firmly planted on the british electoral terrain. and i don't see why she's done something so deliberately how she can reverse it because known, forced her into that position. she has chosen not as high volition, entirely, and so i don't see how she suddenly decides to reverse that and move the point. i think she wants to reverse that. and not really is the case for the labor party because they can show that a concert to really our thoughts right party and times where saturate them is not the cure for any condition. and so if the labor party just talks about bancwest bonus days on tax cuts to the richest, they really can walk through the next election without too many problems. i don't see how trust recall is a tool. a policy may just like get rid of that before the election. vicky price is
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there, is there any way to for, to recover from this? i mean, if, if the, the financial markets stabilize over the next few days and the, the, the pound, lease stops falling the way it has. what do you think could happen further down the road? what is interesting there, what room for maneuver is that, i mean, the interesting thing is that quite a lot of the route in the markets that we have seen. so the, the rise in yields the, the concerns of the markets about the debt and the expectations, maybe that the bank of england would do any emergency interest rate high, which they didn't do in the end. so they wait until november has also been caused by the fact that the chancellor announced a couple of days after the many budget that there would be more tax cuts to come. and i think that's what if you like, send the pound falling even faster. but of course your car, i just sort of recovered and i think they're hoping that maybe the market and forget about this for
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a while. but we can't get away from the fact that the pound has already fallen very significantly. this year is gone down by between 20 and 30 percent just from the beginning of january on revised expectations, as we're hearing earlier about the growth prospects for the economy. we are at the bottom, if you like, of the g 7 league in terms of growth. it seems, and the focus was just just appeared from the o. c. d, the organization for economic cooperation development at look at various countries in europe, which may be in recession next year. and those are germany, italy and the u. k. a bit earlier, it was almost only the u. k. but now of course because of gas concerns and rationing. ok. so the other countries added as well. all right, we're going to have to leave it there. thanks very much. 2 or 3 of you, vickie price. brian lucy and jonathan liz, thanks so much for being on in. so i story. i thank you as well for watching. remember, you can see this problem again. any time, just go to our website as a 0 dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com,
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forward slash ha inside stored. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle. there is at a inside story for me has i'm secret and the whole team here, wife know, ah october on al jazeera, in an election set to define a nation brazilians would choose between the radically different current hard line, conservative president and the former socialist president. a sense of community delves into full unique communities revealing how they're adapting to the 21st century. china holds its national congress of communist party members with president t likely to be re elected as its head. what does this mean for china and the world? only with dreams takes you beyond the glitz and glamour, revealing the stories of those seeking, failing 14 in the world's largest film industry,
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bosnia goes to the poles in an election that will be what closely by both you and russia. october on al jazeera, the latest news as it breaks. this village is the 1st village in this area have been rebuilt. since this area, military took control of this area. we detailed coverage. this mountain behind me is still being occupied by as a, by john's armed forces from around the world migration official phase. they're dealing with more than 200000 pending applications. ah, pro kremlin officials declare victory and referendums held in ukraine's occupied areas.

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