did agricultural and mining frontiers in the amazon rain forest, and when brazil's death toll from covered 19 became the 2nd highest in the world, he showed little compassion insisting people go back to work even before there was a vaccine door. the wall i put in here, i am sure for the dead, i am sorry, but we are all going to die one day. we have to stop being a country of sissy's dog love. oh, your bluetooth? i got both sonata has often been compared to donald trump, whom he greatly admires, both charismatic and anti political establishment. both showed disregard for democratic institutions like the supreme court in congress. and like trump most in madison, tolerance and sensitivity to the needs of the poor. and his handling with a pandemic could make his 1st presidential term his last and see and human al jazeera. so, paolo ah,

or let's have a quick check, the headlines are not 0, and the un secretary general says russia's decision to our next fort ukrainian regions is dangerous. i must not be accepted. attorney tara says the cremeans move violates the un charter and threatens peace prospers. any decision to proceed with the annexation of barnett's ruins garrison and supported zia regions of ukraine, or they have no legal value, and deserves to be condemns. it cannot be reconciled with international legal framework. it since against every scene, the international community is meant to stand for its lauds, the purposes and principles of united nations. it is a dangerous escalation. it has no place in the modern worlds. it must not be accepted. or moscow says it will officially take control of the fort russian occupied parts of eastern southern ukraine from friday. the european union in the us are planning to impose more sanctions on russia for what they called sham

referendums. the swedish coast guard is reporting a 4th leak at the north stream pipelines of the baltic sea. russia says it's not to terrorism investigation over the damage. the you and nato say the leaks were caused by sabotage. u. s. president joe biden has declared a major disaster in florida after harken in, swept across the southern state. biden has warned. the storm could be the deadliest in florida history. arkwin has left a trail of destruction in southwest florida. knockout part 2000000 people in trapping many in flooded homes. demonstrators in france are protesting against the high cost of living, pension reforms and other government policies. the 24 hour strike was called by trade unions who are demanding higher pay for their workers. has affected french energy supplies as the nuclear power industry workers joined the walk out in the okay, the pound has that reversed losses from earlier on thursday primers to live trust,

to finding her governess economic plans intricate chaos in the financial markets, trusted that tax cuts were the right approach, whitten's economy, and that she wouldn't reverse last week's mini budget mia miles deposed. neither uncensored. she has been since sentenced to 3 years alongside her former economic advisor. they had pleaded not guilty to violating the official secrets act suit. she was ousted in a military coup last year. all right, we're up to date with the headlines her not 0. got more news coming up right after inside story. ah, europe and russia trade lane for lease on the north 3 gas pipeline, nato,

calls it sabotage and his warning of a military response. moscow denies involvement, so could this signal the end of the biggest gas link between russia and western europe? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program i'm fully by table. the nord stream, $1.00 and $2.00 gas pipelines in the baltic sea are in trouble right in the middle of an energy war between russia and europe. sweden, n. denmark have reported several leagues since the start of the week, then marks energy agency says all the gas left in the pipes should escape into the baltic sea by sunday. no way now europe's biggest gas supplier is deploying the military to protect its oil and gas installations. nato blamed what it called act

of sabotage, secretary general against dalton burg promised a united and determined response to any attack on energy infrastructure. the you had the same message with some european government, spamming russia for the damage. all information available so far seems to be indicated that this has been a deliberate act, the limit of damage which was created. it's clear that any deliberate destruction of that energy infrastructure is completely on a septal on the tool. the microwaves are almost under united response. now russia says the accusations that it is responsible for the leaks where predictably stupid and absurd. moscow has demanded a un security council meeting on friday to discuss the damage. the criminal spokesman appeared to lay the blame on the us monday. jim, i don't see a significant increase in the profits of us energy companies supplying gas to the european continent. they are very,

very interested in getting those bumper profits in the future. a we interested in this will know when not we've lost the transportation gas in europe in europe, interested in this, in particular, the locomotive of european economics, germany. but no, it is not al jazeera that boston has more now from a vessel in the baltic sea. hundreds of millions cubic meters of gas is now leaking into the baltic sea for days now and according to experts, there's no technology that can stop it. so basically, the authorities are simply waiting for all the gas to disappear from the pipes before it can actually approach the league and start the investigation. the swedish coast guard has now confirmed that they are in total for leagues to under swedish side to under danish shide. also, both in north 31 and in north stream 2, the leagues are so big that experts are also having serious doubt that these fights

could ever be used again. because when gas leaks from the pipes, sea water goes in and there will be at the risk of corrosion, and that will save to really damage these pipes. so far we are, of course, heard accusations from all sides. russians accusing americans. the americans are you or beans accusing russians, but until there's an investigation investigation really happening on the side, we don't know what exactly happened during this damage at the pipes step, fasten for inside story. now let's take a closer look at the noise stream pipelines north stream one started operating dressed over a decade ago, while nordstrom too, has yet to begin. they make up the biggest gasoline between russia and western europe last month, nor stream one stop delivering gas to europe after an energy stand off with russia . europe accused moscow of playing power politics because of western sanctions over the war in ukraine. but russia blamed a turbine defects, canada, where the repairs are carried out,

said it was willing to repair the devices. the turbines were specifically excluded from the sanctions in july. both pipeline still contain gas under pressure despite not delivering fuel. on monday leaks were detected in swedish and danish waters. ah, well, i spring in august now in london, leon is becky, a natural gas unless at the research consultancy firm energy aspects. in bern, cornelia meyer and economists and ceo of my a resource, and in moscow vouchers laugh mishenko, an oil and gas expert. thank you for being on inside story leon in london. let me start with you if we can. the intense speculation, of course, is swirling right now as to who is responsible for these apparent attacks on these pipelines. ah, who in your view gains benefits the most from any destruction to these pipelines? well, and he said it's still very much up in the air on speculation,

on what exactly happened and who had benefits. but when it comes to the plaza building of russia being behind the, there is an obvious gain when it comes to just creating more uncertainty for energy and gas markets. in particular, we have seen over the last couple of days, gas prices search by essentially 20 percent with an a 2 day move. they have come down slightly to day. but what this creates is just more uncertainty surrounding europe's energy security over the course of the winter and markets react to the so this just puts more pressure on european policymakers over the course of the next months, really, to try and tackle the domestic pressure that arises from the cost of living crisis driven primarily by the surgeon energy prices right, versus land in moscow. the timing certainly is a bit suspicious. the pipelines were damage as no way and poland were announcing the opening of the trans baltic pipeline. moscow is pointing the finger of blame in another direction. who do you think benefits from this disruption?

i think there is a kind of group of farm parties, i would say drupal far countries or whatever economists that should think about the changing the global energy map. so that's definitely for us, it's not comfortable to make this actual pipeline sac to explode it. and for russia, it was actually all due is that it was building for has, has been building per se for several decades. the roots and i of course your money, it was the one number one destination. it was consumed about 40 percent of fresh natural gas. it's a big, big market actual for us. so the dispute was around actually was to supply on what's the reason, etcetera, or stop these know stream to but definitely for the last one, it was working definitely german,

you benefit and european union benefited from that. so for russia, there was no reason actually to, to make this deal. so i think that was for exactly what, changing the energy map. ok for changing the energy map. you say, let me bring you into the conversation. cornelia, we've seen her as a leon, pointed out. european gas prices rise this week if somewhat stabilize now, how much uncertainty is this incident with these pipelines causing in the gas markets? it is causing considerable uncertainty, but it's a little bit mitigated by the fact that really because ross has stopped delivering gas em ssl. nordstrom are not streamed to his under sanctions. so there's no gas coming soon was to him to but because russia stopped delivering and gas through noise stream one or aid there is various, you know, and, and most people, most analysts expect the crude, the winter. this will be, will bit, this will be the case. so we have this uncertainty, we have to small the till,

etc. but what i'd really like to say everybody loses on with this one. also the environment loses because analysts are in by mental analysts say about 300000, the metric tons are firm of me saying are going to be leaked and, and, and that's, that's not good, that's not good for the environment. so what concerns me most and foremost, i don't know who did it is when we are starting to play games with critical infrastructure. beard, beard, pipelines, beard, b, it nuclear power stations, whoever placed the games, it's really a dangerous game. a dangerous game, a dangerous moment, leon could this be, could this have an impact you think on the pipelines, ability to when they reached nordstrom one, for example, when it's restart, could it have on it ability and impact on the ability to carry gas? we're europe this coming winter. yeah, well as, as a cornelia already pointed out the factors that not neither nordstrom,

one nor nordstrom to has been carrying gas into the european market, nor to one, not since the beginning of september and nordstrom to didn't come on line after the suspension of the potential commissioning in february, following the invasion of, of ukraine. so what you're looking at in terms of the market fundamentals are in terms of what analysts are looking at. the market did not really expect any of those flaws to resume and in the long term, what you're looking at is, you know, this potentially damaging the pipelines to the extended they can never restart. but most analysts are not doubtful about any kind of large scale resumption or flows from russia into the european market over the coming years anyways, given the political strains between those 2 blocks. so what you're looking at, you know, more specifically with respect to the gas market and why there has been such an increase in volatility as because it's taking the potential for a re side away. we have also seen gas from issuing a statement on the same day as the lease or the day after the lease. we discovered

about a potential heart of ukraine in transit. so that was just further tightened. the european market and the market tries to cope with this by essentially pricing higher to the extent that it incentivizes more industrials to essentially shut down to cut off production. and consequently, also to cause a reduction in a demand across the european continent. over the course of this winter and over the course of the next years now versus lab in moscow, what impact is this all having on russia? if energy exports to europe end, it's going to be very costly for rashni. yes, exactly. so it's, again, that's another one argument that russia didn't have any reason actually to stop the, even with the current circumstances. while there was a dispute on potential, whether to resume or not, the, the williams actually about the physical ability to send the williams actually to supply european union was one of the big advantage for russia. now it's gone. so

i'm in the, the to why, why did i sorry to interrupt you? why in that case, if you say, if it's critical for russia, why did russia stop delivering gas through the nor stream one pipeline? so the logic yeah. the logic show this all about sanctions, so it's sanctioned and even the turbines that was sent to the calendar for maintenance. there was sanctions, it's one of the reason actual there. but again, back to the circumstances, an impact to the russian economists. so of course, i guess from as a natural gas multiple n and g, and actually it will be very difficult to go through this, you know, next year probably with financial side. but again, i would mentioned that the gas problem actually can relate to quite big profit dr. from from current month. so it's a triple the just comparable to the last year. so i think financially one year on we have quite balanced situation,

but then it should be calculate and then assessed. alright, cornelia, you thought, i mean could what impact is this going to have on europe? energy resilience and do you think that this could mean a permanent closure of this nor string project? well, i do think it, it means what, when the expert seemed to say that the engineer seemed to say that it's unrealistic to see noise stream either and what's in my north stream to resume act, the resume mom carrying gas so. so i think we have to assume that that is the case as them as, as awesome as, as, as, as our colleague in london has said, and, you know, and there is still is talk of shutting the, the pipelines through the ukraine. so for, for this winter, this is going to be a tough winter for europe. you see the germany am has actually been able to top up its gas storage to 91 percent. but if we have a higher sh winter,

dad is not enough. and that is going to be bad for the industrial base in europe because you look at somebody like b a r safe and all these, these, these, these chemical companies day need a lot of gas and them. and if they have to shut in, that means that means about a 100000 people, m a will be furloughed and the sub contractors as well. also, we will see less investment. and a lot of the investors i talk to who are industrial investors. tell me if europe cannot sort out its energy situation, why would they invest here? why would they not invest in asia or in america? right? or leon, i and i do want to talk about the other options are for europe with you. but obviously they're trying to develop alternative energy supplies now, but can they secure their energy infrastructure? well, so what, what you're looking at fundamentally, for europe, right, is a situation in which the market price is already at such high levels that you're

pretty much maximizing supply from every potential source already. you're looking at maximum output from algeria, given the price incentive into the italian energy to spanish market. you're looking at maximum production from norway and more specifically when it comes to the global picture and to global and g. you are looking at europe pricing so high that you are essentially causing demand reductions in other parts of the globe. so for example, in south asia and bangladesh or india, they are taking less ellen, g simply because those countries are not able to afford buying more cargoes on the spot market beyond what they have in terms of their long term, long term contractual obligations. so this leaves the european market in a situation in which the only remaining lever that it can actually clear is through a reduction in domestic demand. and that is exactly what we have seen, where we're pricing, you know, above the traditional what is called the balancing mechanism. for the european market, which is the culture gas fuel switch in the power sector,

we're pricing significantly above that to cause those demand reductions from industry and also from the retail sector. and so far that seems to have worked was also aided by, you know, a milder, milder temperatures over the course of this year. but we have seen very significant demand reductions in industry across europe, around 16 percent a year to date. and that has helped us to gain the storage level and that we're on track for now at around you know, 93000000000 cubic meters and storage. but again, it is a very tightly balanced market. and if you are going to see any further outages any further supply outages, that means that price is need to rise even further to cost more demand reduction. i'm well, let's take a look at rush. his options now as europe tries to reduce its reliance on russian oil and gas, moscow has been courting other markets. the center for research and energy and clean air found that china became the biggest buy of russian fossil fuels within the 1st $100.00 days of the invasion of ukraine. india's import jumped 18 percent,

although russian gas imports to the u. f. l by 23 percent. germany, italy and the netherlands, remain the biggest spice, cornelia, your thoughts about russia and, and the other options it has we have to really be very careful in dividing between oil and gas. you're absolutely right. russia has, we rooted it's oil to india and to china, and we will now see more g, c, c, oil coming up to, to europe. but when he comes to guess, you know, there is, there is one gas pipeline to china. there are some very large of fields in, in eastern side by area which we can still go to china. but you know, the infrastructure for pipeline gas from the west and siberian fields. since the 19 seventy's really goes westward and you, you can't just good put that through the whole continent. russia as a huge country. so spanning 11 time zones. you can't just put that through there.

there is the potential of like, companies like no that tech who could do l, m g, but there again, what comes in their i to technology sanctions, which my time does potential? so for oil, yes, oil is sondra bowl or you find oil. it's bill, find the market gas in many ways, not so much unless it's l n g you that you have to have the market and then find the gas. so gas is a bit more complicated versus lab. let me ask you so alternative buyers for russia's oil and gas, right? 9 to china and india, as we've mentioned. but it is that enough in terms of the revenue that moscow needs to power aged economy and continue the war. yeah, actually we're not talking about just the financial side. so we're talking about, as i mentioned, change in the vantage of map. and for russia it's not just only going exports, but actually doing gives us occasion so called of if occasion on the domestic

market. so i would just for the re hop of russia actually has been bigger, bigger, bigger part, the frustrates not get the fight. i mean, there are no pipelines and distribution that works. so that the way the government and the gift from go now. so they trying to get to the new customer is actually on the western. so western side is much more developed than eastern side. so the other one is actually more of who so gas is, has been used as a methane actually. and the engine sounds are just increasing their demands on that side. but on the export side, you're absolutely right. the so call, it was right that china will become bigger and bigger. the biggest demand actually consumer of russian natural gas because of the pipeline constructions, there are just poll february 1. and there is agreements with china to build the policy of era to going through mongolian territory and the other one actually they

still want, i would say it's from the 2nd island. so those actual projects will become more, more actual physical and few years period. and india and pakistan and other countries. so like focused on flow which is gold focused on stream. i would say has become a physical. busy just recently announced that pakistan will get russian guess. all right, leon, your thoughts about this? what is the outlook for russia? a lining up replacement bias for its natural gas production beyond this winter and can china and india absorb all that capacity? i think my, my fellow panelists have already covered that quite significantly when, when it comes to cornelia and especially also saying that, you know, the majority of that infrastructure when it comes to the giant, western sub you're in gas fields is pointing towards europe. and that is not really diverted to supply, which means that the reduction that we have seen in terms of the russian exports

into the european market is also reflected in the actual production declines that got from has been publishing up until now. those overlap relatively well with the export declined that you've seen it to the european market. especially also, if you take into consideration the potential offset when it comes to aggregate production on number from the increase in production and recent seberio which are connected into the power of severe pipeline into the chinese market. now in the short term, and in the medium term, what you're looking at is, you know, the main, the main source of, of potential supply. the chinese market is the power of severe pipeline, which is roughly $38.00 bcm. so 1000000000 cubic meters a year. there is an agreement to construct power seberio to but that is going to take until at least 20272028. if everything goes all right, in the medium term, what this means is that there is a significant potential for just a dead weight loss of supply into the global balance. because there is no divert

ability between the western sub you're in gas fields and flows into into the east essentially. so that is behind this significant tightening off the global gas market and the spikes that we have seen in global gas prices more generally. ok, a significant tightening of the global gas market. cornelia and leon talked about production decline then also export declined. do you think rushes days as an energy super power over and not necessarily over as, as we said. and you know, sometimes yes, it may take until 2027 to get the 2nd m pipeline built, but it can also be faster when i see how fast my plans caught built between central asia and china. that was quite fast. you still have oil and russia will still be a player in oil. but what you will see instead america will be cam a lot, large a player and berries steri some. there's a lot of, there's a lot of planned l, n g production in america, which is not permitted yet. so if we bring forward the permit, thing of that,

we can see very quickly, quite term large m m l n g supplies coming on my when i say very quickly, it's will still take 5 years. but, but i think by, in terms of building l. n. t trains and, and getting that going, that is quite quickly. alright. versus lavin moscow. i'll give you the last word. where do you see this heading caught, cornelia talked about america becoming a big player very soon. where would that leave moscow? and it's ambitious so it's all about the, as i mentioned, and i started with my art to a point bird. it's about the change in the and the gym and global energy map that's, that's the, the core issue actually. yes. american williams with alan g. you will come more to european transatlantic actually rules on so you repeat customers will, will buy more and more american gas actually buy resuming bill o n g plan circle or their bud. russian williams, we believe will be day war. totes to easton and southam saw them mar dust

destinations, as i mentioned. and on top of that, as i mention, russia will devour the domestic infrastructure to consume more and more gas williams. so you don't think russia's days are as an energy, super power are under threat. it's not about that. it's about just just changing the energy map as i mentioned. so it's not the old. no, nobody killed. actually, i'm in terms of a superpower, but russia is thinking about just diversifying the, the allergy industries as it is, but not just about keeping this number one and number 2 position. that's nobody talking about that. okay, well thank you very much for a very interesting conversation. to all 3 of you, leon is be key. cornelia myers in batches laugh mishenko. thank you very much. and thank you for watching this program. and you can watch it again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can of course,

all to join the conversation. twitter handle is that ha insights for me fully like to bring the whole team hearing doha, thanks for watching bye for now. ah . and october and now, just ala in an election set to define a nation, brazilians would choose between the radically different current hard line, conservative presidents and the former socialist president. a sense of community delves into full unique communities revealing how they are adapting to the 21st century. china holds its national congress of communist party members with

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