conditions that rights activists. so the reforms aren't fully enforced and death linked to working practices have often gone uncounted. but there is labor law requires compensation when those deaths a work related. and so we do need to ensure that those dates are investigated and that they are preventative measures from taking place to ensure that that's not happening in the 1st place at this major football industry event. the talk was of what the 1st winter world cup would bring. high quality play a compact, culturally diverse tournament designed to be carbon neutral. the message here from cutter is that now is the time to focus on the delivery of this tournament. the upcoming moment of truth, but it's clear that the years of criticism, particularly on the issue of migrant workers, won't simply melt away once the football is underway. and indeed some of it will come from the teams themselves. hurry faucet al jazeera sybil. and before we head to the headlines with some breaking news from burkina faso heavy gun fire has been heard overnight in the capital wag

a do. groom military are on the straits and of taking control of strategic installations. tv and radio signals are down on thursday. there were protests in the straits about the security situation. soldiers had seized power in occur in january, accusing the civilian government of fowling to reign in armed groups. thing to al qaeda and to iso the who's watching out the, are these, the headlines this, our an alleged russian missile has he to, convoy vehicles in the southern ukrainian city is apparition 23 people reportedly killed were a challenge the following developments from cave. what we understand from the local ukrainian authorities is that a civilian humanitarian convoy vehicles was heading from the city as apparition into the occupied territories of the applause when it was struck. the recruiting

authorities say by the russians 23 people killed. as far as we know so far, 35 injured the russians, though i say it was the ukrainians. who did it? he cried, meanwhile, has called an emergency meeting of top officials after russia said it would annex for ukrainian regions on friday. the fellows referendums in these areas where according to moscow, people voted overwhelmingly to join russia. at least 19 people have been killed after a suicide bomber targeted and education center in cobbled attack happened in an area of the capital, where many people from the has our minority leave have begun. fire has been heard of 9 him became faso capital. why could do good the military around the straits and have taken control of strategic installations, television and radio signals and down on so say they were protest. ringback the strengths about the security situation. in brazil, the final presidential debate has taken place ahead of sunday's election 7

candidates vying for the top job, former president louis in a c. o. led to phil by leading incumbent j both in our opinion pulse and us president joe biden has warned terracon in could be the deadliest in florida history and has declared a major disaster. it knocked out electricity to more than $2500000.00 homes and businesses. local media is reporting at least 13 people have been killed. all right, those are the headlines. i'm emily anglin. the news continues here on al jazeera, after inside story, a weekly look at the world's talk business stories from global markets to economies, and small businesses. to understand how it affects our daily lives, and i'm a dominant in counting the cost on o g as in europe and russia trade main for lease on the north strain gas pipelines, nato, calls it sabotage and his warning of

a military response. moscow denies involvement, so could this signal the end of the biggest gas link between russia and western europe? this is inside story. ah po and welcome to the program. i'm fully back table. the nord stream, $1.00 and $2.00 gas pipelines in the baltic sea are in trouble right in the middle of an energy war between russia and europe, sweden, n. denmark have reported several leagues since the start of the week. then mark's energy agency says, all the gas left in the pipes should escape into the baltic sea by sunday. no way. now your biggest gas supplier is deploying the military to protect its oil and gas installations. nato blamed what it called,

acts of sabotage. secretary general yen stoughton very promised a united and determined to respond to any attack on energy infrastructure. the you had the same message with some european government spending, russia for the damage. all information available so far seems to be indicated that it has been deliberate at the limit of balance, which was created se clears at any deliberate destruction. also, your energy infrastructure is completely on septal, and it will be my tories are almost united response. now russia says the accusations that it is responsible for the leaks where predictably stupid and absurd. moscow has demanded a un security council meeting on friday to discuss the damage, the criminal spokesman appear to lay the blame on the u. s. movie jim. i don't see a significant increase in the profits of u. s. energy companies supplying gas to

a european continent. they are very, very interested in getting those bumper profits in the future. a, we interested in this? no, we're not. we've lost the transportation gas to europe in europe, interested in this in particular the locomotive of european economics, germany. but no, it is not al jazeera that boston has more now from a vessel in the baltic sea. hundreds of millions cubic meters of gas is now leaking into the baltic sea for days now and according to experts, there's no technology that can stop it. so basically, the authorities are simply waiting for all the gas to disappear from the pipe before they can actually approach the league and start the investigation. the swedish coast guard has not confirmed that they are in total for leaks to one to swedish side to under danish shide. also, both in north 31 and in north stream 2 leagues are so big that the experts are also having serious doubt that these bytes could ever be used again. because when gas

leaks from the pipes, sea water goes in and there will be at the risk of corrosion, and that we'll see if severely damage these pipes so far. we have of course, heard accusations from all sides. russians accusing americans, the americans and europeans accusing russians. but until there's an investigation investigation really happening on the side, we don't know what exactly happened during this damage at the pipes step, fasten for inside story. alice, take a closer look at the north stream pipelines north stream. one started operating dressed over a decade ago, while nordstrom too, has yet to begin, they make up the biggest gasoline between russia and western europe. last month, nor stream one stop delivering gas to europe after an energy stand off with russia . europe accused moscow of playing power politics because of western sanctions over the war in ukraine. but russia blamed a turbine defect, canada, where the repairs are carried out,

said it was willing to repair the devices. the turbines were specifically excluded from the sanctions in july. both pipeline still contain gas under pressure, despite not delivering fuel. on monday, leaks were detected in swedish, and danish waters. ah, well let's bring in august now in london, leon is becky, a natural gas unless at the research consultancy firm energy aspects. in bern, cornelia meyer and economists and ceo of my a resource, and in moscow vouchers laugh mishenko, an oil and gas expert. thank you for being on inside story leon in london. let me start with you. if we can. the intense speculation of course is swelling, right? now, as to who is responsible for these apparent attacks on these pipelines, ah, who in your view gains benefit the most from any destruction to these pipelines? well, as i said, it's still very much up in the air on speculation,

on what exactly happened and who benefits. but when it comes to the plaza, bella, t of russia being behind the if there is an obvious gain when it comes to just creating more uncertainty for energy and gas markets. in particular, we have seen over the last couple of days, gas prices search by essentially 20 percent within a 2 day move. they have come down slightly to day. but what this creates is just more uncertainty surrounding europe's energy security over the course of the winter . and markets react to the so this just puts more pressure on european policymakers over the course of the next months, really to try and tackle the domestic pressure that arises from the cost of living crisis, driven primarily by the surgeon energy prices. right. versus land in moscow. the timing certainly is a bit suspicious. the pipelines were damages, norway, and poland were announcing the opening of the trans baltic pipeline. moscow is pointing the finger of blame in another direction. who do you think benefits from

this disruption? i think there is a kind of group of farm parties, i would say drupal far countries or whatever economists that should think about the changing the global energy map. so that's definitely for russia, it's not comfortable to make this actually, pipelines actually exploded. and for russia it was actually all due is that it was building for has, has been building for sale for several decades. the roots and i, of course, your money. it was the one number one destination, it was consumed about 40 percent of fresh natural gas. it's a big, big market actual for us. so the dispute was around actually whether to supply on what's the reason, et cetera or stop these know stream to. but definitely for last year, one, it was working definitely german,

you benefit and european union benefited from that. so for russia, there was no reason actually to, to make this deal. so i think that was for exactly what changing the energy map. ok for changing the energy map. you say, let me bring you into the conversation. cornelia, we've seen as leon pointed out, european gas prices. why is this week this some, what stabilize now? how much uncertainty is this incident with these pipelines causing in the gas market? it is causing considerable uncertainty, but it's a little bit mitigated by the fact that really because ross has stopped delivering gas em. sewell, nordstrom, on nordstrom to his under sanctions. so there's no gas coming soon, was to him to. but because russia stopped delivering and gas through noise stream one or aid there is various, you know, and, and most people, most analysts expect that through the winter, this will be, will be, this will be the case. so we have this uncertainty. we have to small the till,

etc. but what i'd really like to say everybody loses on with this one. also the environment loses because analysts are in by mental analysts say about 300000. the metric tons are firm of me saying are going to be leaked and, and, and that's, that's not good, that's not good for the environment. so what concerns me most and foremost, i don't know who did it is when we are starting to play games with critical infrastructure. beard, beard, pipelines, beard, b, it nuclear power stations, whoever placed the games, it's really a dangerous game. a dangerous game, a dangerous moment, leon could this be, could this have an impact you think on the pipelines, ability to when they reached on nordstrom one, for example, when it's restart, could it have on it ability and impact on the ability to carry gas will europe this coming winter yeah, well as, as a cornelia already pointed out the factors that not neither nordstrom,

one nor nordstrom to has been carrying gas into the european market, nor to one, not since the beginning of september, and nordstrom to didn't come on line after the suspension of the potential commissioning in february, following the invasion of, of ukraine. so what you're looking at in terms of the market fundamentals in terms of what analysts are looking at. the market did not really expect any of those flaws to resume and in the long term, what you're looking at is, you know, this potentially damaging the pipelines to the extended they can never restart. but most analysts are not doubtful about any kind of large scale resumption or flows from russia into the european market over the coming years anyways, given the political strains between those 2 blocks. so what you're looking at, you know, more specifically with respect to the gas market and why there has been such an increase in volatility as because it's taking the potential for a recert away. we have also seen gas from issuing a statement on the same day as the lease or the day after the lease. we discovered

about a potential heart of ukraine in transit. so that was just further tightened. the european market and the market tries to cope with this by essentially pricing higher to the extent that it incentivizes more industrials to essentially shut down to cut off production. and to consequently, also to cause a reduction in a demand across the european continent. over the course of this winter and over the course of the next years night versus lab in moscow. what impact is this all having on russia? if energy exports to europe end, it's going to be very costly for russia evening. yes, exactly. so it's, again, that's another one argument, that's russia. i didn't have any reason actually to stop the, even with the current circumstances. while there was a dispute on, on potential, whether to resume or not the, the williams actually about the physical ability to send the williams actually to supply european union was one of the big advantage for russia. now it's gone. so

i'm in the, the to why, why is wrong and tom, oh, sorry to interrupt you. why in that case? if you say, if it's critical for russia, why did russia stop delivering gas through the nor stream one pipeline? so the logic yeah, the logic show this all about sanctions. so it functions and even the turbines there was sent to canada for maintenance. there was sanction, it's one of the reason actual there. but again, back to the circumstances, an impact to the russian economists. so of course i guess from was a natural gas monopole in and g and actually it will be very difficult to go through this you know, next year probably with financial side. but again, i would mention that the gas problem actually can be late. that's quite big profit dr. from from the current month. so it's a triple the just comparable to the last year. so i think financially one year own we have quite balance the situation. but then it should be calculate and then

assessed. alright cornelia, you thought, i mean could what impact is this going to have on europe's energy resilience? and do you think that this could mean a permanent closure of this nor string project? well, i do think it, it means what, when the experts seem to say that the engineers seem to say that it's unrealistic to see annoyed stream either was humanoid stream to a resume at the resume, ma'am, carrying gas so. so i think we have to assume that that is the case as them as, as, as some, as, as, as, as our colleague in london has said, and, you know, and there is, there is talk of shutting the, the pipelines through the ukraine. so for, for this winter, this is going to be a tough winter for europe. you see that germany am has actually been able to top up it's gas storage to 91 percent. but if we have a highest winter,

dad is not enough and then is going to be bad for the industrial base in europe because you look at somebody like b ss and all these, these, these, these chemical companies, they need a lot of gas and them, and if they have to shut in, that means that means about a 100000 people, m a will be furloughed and the sub contractors as well. also, we will see less investment. and a lot of the investors i talked to who are industrial investors, tell me if europe cannot sort out its energy situation, why would they invest here? why would they not invest in asia or in america? right? or leon, i and i do want to talk about the other options are for europe with you, but obviously they're trying to develop alternative energy supplies now, but can they secure their energy infrastructure? well, so what, what you are looking at thunder mentally for europe, right. is a situation in which the market price is already at such high levels that you're

pretty much maximizing supply from every potential source. already. you're looking at maximum output from algeria, given the price incentive into the italian energy to spanish market. you're looking at maximum production from norway and more specifically when it comes to the global picture and to global and g. you are looking at europe pricing so high that you are essentially causing demand reductions in other parts of the globe. so for example, in south asia and bangladesh or india, they are taking less ellen, g simply because those countries are not able to afford buying more cargoes on the spot market beyond what they have in terms of the long term, long term contractual obligations. so this leaves the european market in a situation in which the only remaining lever that it can actually clear is through a reduction in domestic demand. and that is exactly what we are seen, where we're pricing, you know, above the traditional what is called the balancing mechanism. for the european market, which is their culture gas, fuel switch in the power sector,

we're pricing significantly above that to cause those demand reductions from industry and also from the retail sector. and so far that seemed to have worked, it was also aided by, you know, a milder, milder temperatures over the course of this year. but we have seen very significant demand reductions in industry across europe, around 16 percent a year to date. and that has helped us to gain the storage level and that we are on track for now at around you know, 93000000000 cubic meters and storage. but again, it is a very tightly balanced market. and if you are going to see any further outages any further supply outages, that means that prices need to rise even further to cause more demand reduction. i am. well, let's take a look at a rush of options now as europe tries to reduce its reliance on russian, oil and gas, moscow has been courting other markets. the center for research and energy and clean air found that china became the biggest buy of russian fossil fuels within the 1st $100.00 days of the invasion of ukraine. india's import jumped 18 per cent,

although russian gas enforced to the you fell by 23 percent. germany, italy and the netherlands. remain the biggest spice, cornelia, your thoughts about russia and, and the other options it has. we have to really be very careful in dividing between oil and gas. you're absolutely right. russia has, we rooted its oil to india and to china. and we will now see more g, c, c, oil coming up to, to europe. but when it comes to guess, you know, there is, there is one gas pipeline to china. there are some very large fields in, in eastern side by area which will, can still go to china. but you know, the infrastructure for pipeline gas from the west and siberian fields, since the 1970s really goes westward and you, you can't just good put that through the whole continent. russia as a huge country. so spanning 11 time zones. you can't just put that through there.

there is the potential of like, companies like know that take who could do l n g but bear again, what comes in there are the technologies, sanctions, which my time does potential. so for oil, yes, oil is fun trouble, or you find oil. it's bill, find the market gas in many ways, not so much unless it's l n g you that you have to have the market and then find the gas. so gas is a bit more complicated versus let me ask you so alternative buyers for russia's oil and gas, right? 9 to china and india, as we've mentioned. but it is that enough, in terms of the revenue that moscow needs to power aged economy and continue the war. yeah, actually we're not talking about just the financial side. so we're talking about, as i mentioned, changing the vantage of map and for russia it's not just only going exports, but actually doing gives us occasion so called this occasion on the domestic market

. so i would just for that half of russia actually has been bigger, bigger, bigger part the frush is not gives if i, i mean, there are no pipelines and distribution that works. so that the way the government and the guest from go now. so they trying to get to the new customer is actually on the western. so western side is much more developed than eastern side. so the other one is the actually more to who. so gas is, has been used as a methane actually, and the engine sounds are just increasing their demands on that side. but on the export side, you're absolutely right. the m, so pull, it was right that china will become bigger and bigger. the biggest didn't actually consumer of russian natural gas because of the pipeline constructions. there are just poll february 1, and there is agreements with china to build the policy bureau to going through mongolia territory. and the other one actually they still want,

i would say it's from the 2nd island. so those actual projects will become more, more actual physical and few years period. and india and pakistan and other countries. so like focused on flow, which is gold focused on stream. i would say, has become a physical just recently announced that pakistan will get russian guess. all right, leon, your thoughts about this? what is the outlook for russia? a lining up replacement bias for its natural gas production beyond this winter and can china and india absorb all that capacity? i think my, my fellow panelists have already covered that quite significantly when, when it comes to cornelia and especially also saying that, you know, the majority of that infrastructure when it comes to the giant, western sub you're in gas fields is pointing towards europe. and that is not really diverted, will supply, which means that the reduction that we have seen in terms of the russian exports

into the european market is also reflected in the actual production declines that goes from has been publishing up until now. those overlap relatively well with the export declined that you've seen it to the european market. especially also, if you take into consideration to potential offset when it comes to aggregate production on number from the increase in production and recent seberio which are connected into the power of severe pipeline into the chinese market. now in the short term, and in the medium term, what you're looking at is the main, the main source of, of potential supply. the chinese market is the power of severe pipeline which is roughly $38.00 bcm. so 1000000000 cubic meters a year. there is an agreement to construct power seberio to but that is going to take until at least 20272028. if everything goes all right, in the medium term, what this means is that there is a significant potential for just a dead weight loss of supply into the global balance. because there is no divert

ability between the western sub you're in gas fields and flows into into the east essentially. so that is behind this significant tightening off the global gas market and the spikes that we have seen in global gas prices more generally. ok, a significant tightening of the global gas market. cornelia and leon talked about production decline and also export declined. do you think rushes base as an energy super power over and not necessarily over as, as we said, amino sometimes yes, it may take until 2027 to get the 2nd item and pipeline built, but it can also be faster when i see how fast my plans caught built between central asia and china that was quite fast. you still have oil and russia will still be a player in oil. but what you will see a said america will become a lot large, a player and berries, stereo. so there's a lot of, there's a lot of planned l, n g production in america, which is not permitted yet. so if we bring forward to permit thing of that,

we can see very quickly, quite term large m m l n g supplies coming on my when i say very quickly, it's will still take 5 years but, but, but in terms of building l n t trains and, and getting that going, that is quite quickly. alright, versus lavin moscow. i'll give you the last word. where do you see this heading caught, cornelia talked about america becoming a big player very soon. where would that leave moscow and is ambitious so it's all about the, as i mentioned, are those started with my are to a point bird. it's about the change in the and the gym and global energy map that's, that's the, the core issue actually. yes. american williams with alan g will come more to european transatlantic actually routes. and so europe ian customers will, will buy more and more american gas actually buy resuming bill. well, angie plans are chill or their bud russian williams, we believe will be day war. totes tor, easton and southam saw them are dust destinations,

as i mentioned. and on top of that, as i mention, russia will devour the domestic infrastructure to consume more and more gas williams. so you don't think russia's days are, as an energy superpower are under threat. it's not about that, it's about just just changing the energy map as i mentioned. so it's not the old. no, nobody killed. actually, i'm in terms of a superpower, but russia is thinking about just diversifying the, the energy industries as it is, but not just about keeping this number one, number 2, position that nobody talking about that. okay, well thank you very much for a very interesting conversation to all 3 of you. leon is be key. cornelia myers and batches laugh mishenko. thank you very much. and thank you for watching this program. and you can watch it again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story. you can of course,

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