and his main rival, former president lula who has maintained a commanding lead, according to pulling data in facilities north foremost. although, veronica, the almost old, we're a government that tends to the needs of the poorest that you're in, lulu government. the poverty assistance was less today. there are 20000000 families that are receiving assistance from us in brazil, kohler campbell, she quite paid. according to the most recent pause, former president lula counts on some 50 percent of the vote, which political analysts like said, your branches, say could be enough to win the presidency without the need for a 2nd round of voting. yeah, i think that that there is a likelihood that lula are whims, on the, on the 1st run. it will depend on obsession. and the how the very few undecided voters roadside the vote. this presidential race has been one of the most polarizing in brazil's history. one thing voters here do agree on is that this election represents a critical battle over the future of latin,

america's largest democracy, goggan, alphabet, with political debates down the past elections of entered the final stretch about manuel rap alone al jazeera religion eto before. ah, this is observed, these are the top stories in russian president vladimir putin has told crowds of petro to pop concert in moscow's red square, that russia will achieve victory in ukraine. celebratory event is being held of putin early assigned a grievance to in his words, re unite for regions in easton, ukraine. russia written sets a kremlin will protect before regions using all available means ukrainian president villray zalinski has formerly signed an application for fast track membership to join. later. it's in direct response to vladimir prudence. move to annex for regents of ukraine earlier. great grandkids, ukrainian men and women, all our friends and eyes actual allies. today we're here and keep in the heart of

our ukraine, where we're making the definitive step to be part of the community of free nations . we can see who's threatening us, who's ready to kill us, and mame us, who would not stop at any atrocity in order to expand that area of control. on the 24th of february, the 1st full scale strike was carried out against ukraine. that was the 1st one. russia was not stopping and would not have stopped on our borders, had we not stopped them, are the countries it would be jeopardized, the baltic states, georgia, moldova has its don. russia wanted to subordinate various nations of europe and asia just 6 months ago. now this kind of stopped in ukraine. all of our countries territory will be liberated from this enemy. it is not just the enemy of ukraine, it's the enemy of life itself, of humanity, of law, and truth. russia knows this. russia feels our power. it can see that here in ukraine, we are proving the strength of our values. and this is why it's in

a hurry, but what has been widespread condemnation to brookins moved the nato chief says it's the most serious escalation since invasion began february united states and u. k. of imposed further sanctions on russian individuals and companies. at least 25 people have been killed in a missile strike near the russian claim. city of south florida. the regional governor says miss r hit, a convoy of civilian vehicles. took place in the outskirts of the city. or at rochester were headline to an auditor, got more news coming up right after we visit. so story of the ah hurricane. it could be the deadliest storm to ever hit the u. s. state of florida

is one of many extreme weather events this year that i've left millions homeless. what is making these disasters more common and more intense, and how do we better prepare for them? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully battle hurricane in is one of the most powerful storms to hit the us in years north and south carolina. bracing for the worst. after i had left a trail of destruction in florida. the storm made landfall on the said southwest coast on wednesday. winds of up to 250 kilometers an hour and record storm surge is destroyed homes and cut power to more than $2000000.00 people. scientists blame what they call rapid intensification for making the hurricane destructive. as when

wind speeds increase by at least 60 kilometers per hour within a day, researchers say intense storms are becoming more common due to warmer oceans from climate change. the u. s. president has declared a major disaster for florida. this could be the deadliest hurricane in florida history. the numbers of still are still aren't clear, but we're hearing early reports what may be substantial loss of life. so which countries have experience in most extreme weather events. this year, in august to renshaw, monsoon, brains and glacial males triggered the most severe flooding in pakistan's recent history. leaving a 3rd of the country under water from june to august, heat, waves set weather records across europe, leading to forest fires and droughts. sweeping the region in june, floods had so dawn after heavy rain caused the blue sky and water at white nile rivers to burst their banks. and since january floods have effected most of africa killing just under 2000 people,

nigeria was the worst affected. ah, well as bring in our guests now for 2 days inside story in tallahassee, brought for johnson assistant professor of geography and a ph. d. in meteorology at florida state university in o tracked in the netherlands, martin van ounce director of the international red cross red crescent climate center and a professor of climate and disaster resilience. at the university of 20 and in islamabad. far hard saeed. the south asia and middle east regional climate. scientists with climate analytics. welcome to the program. thank you very much for joining us. bradford johnson in tallahassee. let me start with you. hurricane in went from a tropical storm to a hurricane in less than 24 hours. and it's not the only storm that recently experienced this. rapid intensification as they're calling it what is behind this and what is making these storms more intense and more frequent?

that's right. and thank you for having me on the show today. it's really like you mentioned a long line and a series of storm the past 5 to 10 years that are found their ways into the gulf of mexico. ready when we are found out throughout the day. ready that the sea surface temperatures and the environment conducive to the striping of storms in the gulf of mexico have been tracking above average from. ready historical values, for instance, that hurricane in its reverse over water, if they were over 30 degrees celsius and in northwestern caribbean, before it encountered. ready water. ready or more than 2 degrees celsius above expected values off the southwestern coast of florida. on this, along with the conducive atmospheric conditions allowed storm, like its predecessors to effectively drop pressure very quickly. and winds based a ramp up very fast. so global warming, you would say, is affecting this. it's leading to the storm. intensification potter is

a research has shown that warming around the globe is causing water temperatures, not only in the truck oceans also in. ready areas, north, forward of the tropics, to train, above average, will be expected to see over the last $30.00 to $50.00, even 100 years. in particular, with the mexico look current which fees, water from the western caribbean. if you might know it also be the gulf stream, we're actually europe on the latter end of it. it's one of them and tracking warmer as wellness of relatively deeper water, which effectively access more fuel for the alright, for hot in his rama, back talk to us about your experience in pakistan. what role has climate change played in the intense weather events we've seen in that region this year? yeah, thanks falling for having me. first of all and the fellow speaker have said that we

have also found the role of climate change in excess of bidding the impacts of the, of the 2 of the extremes. you have written this year. so the heat fav in the month of march and april with progress on a witness. it was also a record breaking and it was supposed to be time of spring in pakistan. but the temperature in parts of august on rose above 50 degrees centigrade in some of the places. so it was just antecedent for the time of the year. and i was a part of a study which was led by beaten college london and it also had a quote from us cambridge, oxford, columbia university. and so on. the finding of our study was that that particular heat, the climate change has accessing it or made it more likely by 30 times as compared to the world without climate change. and similarly, the 2nd, when the country went through the flooding,

it was the versed the country have an expedient since the record began. and the similar study was conducted, which is called the climate in attribution study. and our finding from that study was that the intensity of the monson rainfall in 2 months, in a month of august, june, july, and august. the intensity was increased by 75 percent as compared to the world without climate change. so via the quantitative and editors that climate gene has played a very important role in excessive bidding. the impacts of both the events. martin in old track, are we talking specifically about human induce climate change? here? how do socio economic factors intersect with climate impacts, whether in south asia or a, in, in the american or in africa? how is it worth seeing that the effects on people and the environment?

yeah, well 1st of all, i think it's important to underline what for how to said about the strong quantitative evidence that in many of these individual disasters, we have now a very clear fingerprint indeed of anthropogenic climate change. so we can draw a straight line from the mission of greenhouse gases to the more intense natural hazards that we're now facing. however, it's always the combination of those hazards with the vulnerability of the societies that are hit by them. that then defines the impacts. and while you may know the classical story of the dash where we've also been confronted with super storms in the past couple of years. and fun, for instance, was a super typhoon hitting position india. in the 1970 started like that would have killed hundreds of thousands of people literally. but 2 years ago that only job 124 casualties are still very tragic. but thanks to a successful evacuation of 9000000 people, we were able to avoid many debts. now that doesn't mean there is no destruction. and climate change is still both very heavy told on those countries. but it shows

that there is a lot of can be done to avert some of the very worst impact with rising hazard. it's clear that we need to invest much more in those sorts capacities, in light of a more quality climate that we, before we talk about what more can be done. i want to ask you martin about the impact a bit to give us a bit more. you know, an example of the direct impact of these disasters and you know, what are the costliest weather related incidents? well, the costliest in terms of economic damages are often in the united states. and then we're really talking $100000000000.00 disasters. we don't have to total yet for a florida right now. but for instance, 5 years ago we did a similar attribution study that he was just talking about for her and harvey induced and that was over a $100000000000.00 for that disaster. and again, 3 times more likely due to climate change. so we have those numbers in terms of huge costs in places like that. when you're talking about human tall,

it is often places like conquest on the current drought in north africa is one of our current, our biggest concerns in terms of humanitarian concerns. at the moment, also be hundreds of 1000 people dying. if we don't provide food are quickly the fingerprint of climate change in those context is often more difficult because we don't have data or models aren't as good for those places, but it's the same pattern of both a right and have him. in that case, 5 rainy seasons in a row failing, but also very high vulnerability due to the poverty, the aftermath, colgate, the complex in the region. so that's, that's always the pattern that those come together. and then of course, in those very poor regions, you don't get a high, very, very high economic thought, but human suffering is multiplied. bradford marching mentioned that data, and i guess having good data is key, isn't it? is the climate crises making forecasting more difficult? i would argue when it comes to forecasting our forecasts or have more tools

available to them right now and more data. ready than any other time history. however, there are areas of martin just mentioned that are pretty data sparse that do impact our ability to forecast, for instance, on hurricane during the bill. ready few years back, it may, i've actually delayed initiation because of the mass, a harem dust there was present over chocolate atlantic at that time. and as we know, that's hearing death is a, is a product of desertification and drought in sub saharan africa and say hello region . but one hurricane during was actually able to develop it may have actually intended by faster because of the warmer t service temperatures that were available to, to tap into was to reach the bahamas and off the coast of florida. and moving up the eastern coast of the united states. and so when we think about the actual forecasts themselves, we found that the cone of uncertainty that we'd like to focus on over the years as

shrank in the general day 3. and they 5 errors or decrease, but it's become a pretty evident now that even other factors that mean possibly related to climate change by the steering flow in the flowing of storms, where the approach, the coastline of north america also make it more difficult to forecast is to communicate with the hazards might be particularly we relate to inland flooding was most people do not associate with track little cycle. so we started talking about the impact of course, but we've also got to talk about what more can be done to prevent these disasters from becoming so frequent and intense hurricane in could be one of the most expensive ones. as you heard from martin, an early estimate put the cost of damage at up to $47000000000.00 for florida alone . economies stay funding to combat climate change is facing a 2 front battle mitigation and adaptation. the us military's injecting cash into adopting hardware and infrastructure to cope with extreme weather after various

bases were damaged by hurricanes. the pentagon budget just for climate is $3100000000.00. the international monetary fund recommends a tax on coal oil products, natural gas that so lower the amount being pumped into the atmosphere. it also consternation is to adapt infrastructure to better prepare for severe weather. the world bank delivered a record 31700000000 dollars this year to address global climate change mostly to developing nations, just under half of that will be spent on adapting infrastructure. so let me come to you. far hard in islamabad. they are, of course, ways to reduce the widespread destruction the storms leave in their wake. how do we better prepare in your view for these intense storms, intense weather events in the future? how do we reduce the damage and the loss? yes. so fully, the 1st thing is that since also the other speakers have have said that that we

have found the fingerprints of climate change already. so is that setting is not foreign to this part of the world in august on. but the problem is that because of climate change, because of wal mart temperatures, we're not having these events more frequent and also the intensity of, of those, the face that they are crossing the red limit of the, you know, in place. and my years people are equipment i far, far for 100 years. so another problem is that going to leave you at $1.00 degrees centigrade warmer than the previous year. so i would say the 1st thing is that the one should come together and decide that be we need to reduce the emission so as to the temperature to $1.00 degrees centigrade according to the better sacrament limit . so anything beyond, for a country like focused on every $10.00 to $4.00 degree matters at the moment,

because now we have quantitative assessment of the, of the role of climate in excess of bidding and the intensity of these hazards. so the 1st thing i would say is to contain the greenhouse gas emissions. and the other thing is to, of course, provide necesary assistance for the, for the going to like buckets on because the contribution of august on in total greenhouse gas emissions at the present level is less than one percent. right. and if you considered the historical emission starting from centuries ago, so the contribution falls to point 3 percent. so this is a big issue of climate justice. so the countries like august on and there are also the countries where contributed literally nothing to the greenhouse gas emissions, the level we are going to going to leave currently witnessing. but on the other hand, those are the ones who are the forefront will be getting the brunt of climate change,

especially if you look within pakistan. so of course the people who are associated with a greek church, they have nothing to contribute. they don't have strong houses, relevant houses that can face the beauty of the nature in terms of these extreme events. so they are the ones at the front lines. so there's a huge problem of climate. and just this, not only at the global scale, but also the social justice within the country as well. so market nationally goes to sion. right, let's bring in martin we, we hear you. and that's, it's very interesting what you say martin had just said they would these extreme weather events like the super floods in pakistan. it is countries that contribute less to the carbon emissions that are the worst effected. what can be done for these countries and who pays the price for climate? reparations. yeah, well, it's very clearly those countries, and especially the poor people in those countries are currently paying the highest

price. and it's unfair because they have contributed the least to the problem. so i think that he's an ethical issue in front of world leaders at the moment as they were meeting recently at the united nations general assembly and will be meeting again at cop $27.00 in e, in, in egypt, and early november in a very practical sense. the recipes and the very simple, the intergovernmental panel on climate change has assessed all the world's evidence, and it's concluded that we are already seeing, aggravated humanitarian disaster is new to climate change today. and all the examples that we've been discussing show that they are also very clear as for have mentioned that every tend to the degree will add to that burden. so, and we are reaching limits to adaptation already today and will reach more and more as the temperature rise continue. so it's critical that we reduce emissions as quickly as we can. but at the same time, as i mentioned, the damage is to some extent already. there are in terms of the emissions that we've done in the past. so we need to adapt to the climate that has already changed

and that will get more challenging, especially in these most probable countries. so we need to see increasing investment to help especially these, these most desperate places to prepare for martin martin when you have other issues like governance and poverty. and the corona virus pandemic. it becomes difficult for climate action plans to work because government, especially in these low and middle income countries, have other priorities. so how do you bridge that gap and, you know, there's a big difference i understand in the money, in between the money being spent right now to prevent climate change and you know, the one in terms of adaptation and so on. so how do you bridge that gap? well, that steady is a big challenge. you know, and even argue monetary in support, in the aftermath of disasters is under heavy strain. we're not reaching all of the people that are in need of help. and we're struggling to, to, to cope with the,

the writing toll of all these events around the world. so that it itself is already a challenge. but only response is also not going to be enough. and we found out in humanitarian world also that just responding more and more isn't going to do it. our estimates are that by 2050 we could see a doubling off the funding needed to help people need, again, dependent on the climate scenario. but also how we prepare, and i think that is the key message. it is going to be cheaper and more effective to, to, to provide some of the funding in advance. and it isn't the challenging in places that are already poor to face so many constraints at the same time. and in fact, with corporate, for instance, we're seeing the double whammy of people having been left very poor after cove it and then struggling even harder to cope with the shocks that are now coming to them from the client. right. but many of the solutions that are needed aren't super expensive. i mean the, the early warning systems that i mentioned that have been so effective in bangladesh. they require planning in advance. a require a collaboration between major logical service. and in that case,

department actually present to make sure that the, the warnings for such a major storm which we heard before happened getting so much better, mason decades that are communicating effectively to those local people and local people know what to do. and then you need to have shelters in place that they can go to. but all of that is a little bit of infrastructure investment. it's a lot of capacity investment. so yes, we do need a lot of funding, particularly also to cope with the impacts. we're already see, but it's also putting it to the best use and it is often in those local communities . bradford from a major article perspective, how can we better prepare for these extreme weather events because of climate change? i'd like to actually talk briefly about what. ready he just just mentioning, i mean that it's not just a state sponsor fiscal issue that we're dealing with for the infrastructure. we're also particularly in western nations. it is, but it is imperative that private sector companies,

effectively company engine toward this because private sector and, and in the market dictate so much of what goes on in regards to investments in, in these parts of the world. it really is going to be up to mere ologist as scientists, climate scientists, understanding what their actual. ready desires are, and for the most part is the actual is the satisfaction of their shareholders. so they're not for the most part, want to do it. our time is their heart. but we have them saying unable to understand the value proposition is for these companies and how their operations could become more profitable future under a renewable, less invasive use of the world's resources resulted in b, minimization greenhouse gas emissions as meteorologist in sciences. moving forward, i think we have a increasing competence and particularly when you read the i p c. c reports of what

the impacts of climate climate change are. unfortunately, where we are right now, it more than likely on average, will probably be the coolest year for the rest of our lives. however, that does not mean it has to be beginning of a era destructiveness, as long as we understand, and we're communicating not only with local governments and state governments and. ready national international levels, but also those companies in communities and shareholders. and those disadvantage and under represented communities, ordeal bear the brunt of the actual impacts of the storms fried in islamic bad. so what actions can be practically considered not just by government, by and authorities, but by also, you know, people to, to scale up and reduce to risk of these climate change related disasters. yes. so before coming to your question fully so i will just take a few seconds to say that it's not only about the climate finance,

but along with that we also look forward from developing countries to, to support the transfer of technology. so tennis because we're talking about the full cost of the of project stream events. so climate change is surprising us every year, almost. and the state of the art to major climate models. they do not perform well over this part of the world just because that those models are developed in the global not. so we also need some kind of support in developing of the development of such tools, which are also getting the regional to get to the, you know, characteristic of this region as well, the mountain region. and as well as the capacity building support. so that also very important. now coming to your question that of course you're going to like, i guess they need to put their house in order as well. so the local governments are

non existent and bug phone. so, and you can imagine that if you do not have a local governments and you face a calamity, you're definitely going to struggle. and also the institutional arraignment is very important. and we also need to learn from other countries from other countries of the region, how to cope with these kind of a disaster. one wants to happen. so there's a lot to be done and it's very important for a country like pakistan to start a grand to bit around climate in because unfortunately for developing countries, climate change doesn't come by the top of the agenda, the political agenda, we have many other problems. so just to put the things in perspective focused on total exports per year is almost $30000000000.00 and the estimated economic damages from this flooding only. i'm not talking about the heat, but only because of flooding. estimated to be over $3030000000000.00. so you know,

a couple of weeks back pocket on one meaning before i m f for 1170000000 below beckett. so you can imagine that of course for, for example, the 100 getting phone into. it's in the absolute terms. it is much higher, your number is 100000000000, but probably going to be like bargain on, which is already struggling. the size of the economy is very small. so this is a huge impact because of this, this flooding. ok, so definitely it's a local phenomena and we need to bring the world on the, on the table and my final be going to set that up. and if i one is going to be ready, but it needs a global collaboration. thank you very much gentlemen. for a very interesting discussion, bradford johnson martin van stand for had said, thank you very much for joining us. and thank you for watching. you can always watch his program again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for

further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can of course, all to join the conversation on twitter. i handle is at ha, inside story from me fully betty board, the whole team hearing doha. thank you for watching. i for that ah ah, indonesia your investment destination, the world's 10th largest economy, is busy transforming, ready to beat your business, partner with a robust talent pool,

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