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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  October 2, 2022 8:30pm-9:00pm AST

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so he's not worried about any threat from russian forces. i think is, is a good that americans, british german troops come to the island and make exercises so. so they do, they learn is a part of the market and it's, it's so far and they so, but stationed here on the pony base, i don't think it's necessary that you ought to be worried that the russians would be concerned about, or they were, they were for sure, mega follow fuss about it, but i don't think that that it will make any difference. experts say the hundreds of millions of cubic meters of gas that have spilled into the sea are causing a lot more damage to the global climate and the local environment. but these islanders are undeterred and go on with their daily business, enjoying the sea, even with the cool october weather steadfast and al jazeera on born home in denmark . ah.
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so this is, these are the top stories, impulsive just close in bosnia herzegovina, elections for the collective presidency. the electoral commission says 5 poli, officials have been arrested in the republic. a subscript after ballots intercepted that were already filled out as it break is moving from, sorry, over. this is a complicated political system and we've been speaking to people in, sorry, over and is a mix between frustration at that political system and how it holds the country back. many people feel that it hold them back and also the fact that many people i don't want to vote, we've seen over the years that voted turner has been decreasing. the 1st post good election to turn out was around 80 percent an hour. and the last few years has been around 50 percent or so. yes. is a considerable amount of frustration at the system and voting is just wrapped up of bulgarian 4th parliamentary election in 18 months. exit poll said 3 time prime
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minister boy co borrower sauce. conservative party will when nearly quarter of the vote, outgoing prime minister carol pet coughs reform his party is expected to receive nearly 20 percent of the ballot. turner is near record low. meanwhile, voting is ongoing in brazil and one of the most diverse elections in the country's history former counted at least in the last year, lula da silva has been polling ahead of encumbered job, boston aro, by double digits. a vigil has been held in indonesia after 125 people were killed, drained stampede at a football match. please fire tear gas to support us from the losing side invaded the pitch that caused the crowd to flee towards the exits. a britton's prime minister has admitted she should have better prepared the public in the financial markets for her new economic plan. the announcement of live trust his tax plan caused a plan pound to plummet to record lows compared to the dollar. beginning process
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president paul already to me by has agreed to conditionally resign after speaking with religious and traditional leaders. the new military leader abraham. trudy has accepted the resignation in order to avoid further violence. you haven't 6 months, you and mediated truce has expired. the warring sides, blame each other for allowing the deal to reach an impasse. millions have been displaced in the 8 year war, and most needs rely on monetary and aid deadlines. more news come up here and i'll desert right after we go to inside story, news, news, news, news, news, israel and lebanon close to resolving the long running maritime border dispute. the
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us has offered a proposal to clarify their boundaries in an area with potentially huge gas. so what is fake and will help improve relations between the 2 countries? this is inside the ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully back. he bow, a long running dispute between israel and lebanon, may soon be resolved. both countries lay claim to the same stretch of ocean in the eastern mediterranean, that could contain lucrative gas deposits. a u. s. mediator has sent a written proposal to both lebanon and israel, to demarcate the maritime borders. the 2 countries this agree on the boundary separating very exclusive economic zones. the contested waters contains carries gas
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field and the kind of prospect. israel claims the boundary runs north at line one, giving it the right to operate in courage, but lebanon pushed the border further south at line 23 in 2012, a u. s. mediator proposed midway, solution called the half line, but it wasn't accepted. a decade later, lebanon demanded the boundary, be pushed south to line 29. the latest us proposal is said to offer a compromise. the 2 countries would share the kind of field while the carriage would stay in israel zone, is in a harder explains from bay world a long standing maritime border dispute between lebanon and israel may be close to being resolved. a written proposal is now on the table. it's based on years of intermittent and indirect negotiations mediated by the united states. ideal would be a rare diplomatic breakthrough between enemies that would unlock valuable
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underwater resources, but it would also position the eastern mediterranean as an energy hub, supplying europe as it seeks replacements for russian gas. there is a need that has been created due to the russian ukrainian war. europe is looking at the east mediterranean as one possible source. israel is already an exporter of energy and wants to significantly add to its output by starting to produce gas at its career field. but there are security concerns. the iranian backed arms group, hezbollah has said it has the capability to obstruct the sale of gas to europe. if lebanon's rights in the maritime region aren't recognized, israel dismissed the threats and warned of a war if there is any attack. but despite the tough talk, all parties have shown readiness to reach a deal lebanese officials and has the law have called it a historic opportunity for the country. grappling with
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a major financial crisis. lebanon hasn't been able to begin drilling because international companies won't explore the area until the border dispute is resolved . the proposed compromise is believed to involve including cutting field in israel's economic zone. while most of the nearby carno will go to lebanon, even though there are no proven reserves in that field, the agreement won't become formal until the parties finalize it. during indirect meetings, at a un base near their border. a breakthrough doesn't signal piece or a normalization of relations, but it could reduce tensions and allow gas to flow from under the sea than a 100 for inside story. while the leader of lebanon test paula group has called the proposal a significant step pass. and as ron says, he hopes a resolution will open up major economic opportunities is allow, hustle, china, who at the highland,
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we are all aware of to deteriorate in situation globally fuse food, cash flows, etc. the situation is suspecting even european countries. lebanon is waiting for foreign loans and assistance. while we have our own riches within our own waters. if this issue comes to a favorable outcome, it will be the product of our unity and solidarity. it is not the time to seek political gains. we should bank on our own points of strength. and israel's prime minister supports the deal, and has even bought the idea of lebanon producing natural gas in disputed waters. the kiss if you can this little, but this is a deal that strengthens israel, security and israel's economy. we have no opposition to an additional lebanese gas fuel being developed from which we would of course receive the royalties. do us such a field would weaken lebanese dependency on iran, restrain his vala and bring regional stability. ah,
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well let's bring in our guest now for today's inside story in beirut, laurie hi tan, an oil and gas analysts, and a political activists. and in west jerusalem russell shall live a lawyer and researcher at the coil ed policy form and is really think tank. thank you both for joining us on inside. sorry, laurie in beirut, let me start with you. there seems to be a renewed sense of urgency to get an agreement on this long running maritime dispute between lebanon and israel, with the lebanese authorities receiving the u. s. mediators proposal, you get a sense that we are nearing a deal. definitely this is the sensory getting and they route that this is almost done. deed and the love it and they route or it is here, are very positive about the deal and they're talking about progress and positive signs and even has been law, which was which was thought to be a spoiler yesterday has on the law had had
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a very positive statement about the deal, so i guess the atmosphere and the environment you to be with is that it is going to happen as soon. and i think with everything that we're hearing today in israel, i think that will push more for the u. s. m. a g to push for the to happen before the election outcome and before may be enough and yelled, taking over from what you're hearing. he's against d. so i think time wise, there is no overlap between 11 on one thing to do the soon as before the end of the president's mandate by 31 october. and it seems that there is a rush, even in israel because he wants the g l to the end, the extra come against the deal. so this overlap might make it even sooner than expected. it might be fine. let's get the view from west jerusalem russell. how is this proposed deal being viewed in israel, and is there
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a sense of urgency there? as laurie says, well, 1st i want to emphasize the absolute tragedy of the deal, right? lebanon is a failed states. if it's ruled by a rainy and a puppet regime, this deal will not benefit the lebanese people, rather, it will allow because the law and the, and the iranian government to continue to loot and to plunder lebanon, natural resources. i further want to emphasize, right? israel is, is a democracy and we are in election season. the, the current government has no, has no public mandate to commit to make, to make this bill. it cannot be done under a caretaker, transitional government. it has no mandate for this deal. ok will allow laurie to respond. we don't know laurie the exact terms, of course, and the devil is in the details. but from the, the reports and statements that you've seen, how would 11 on benefits from this deal. and so, 1st of all,
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i think like lebanon is desperate for a deed, on the maritime borders, because they do believe that this deed will have is the pressure that is lebanon. that 7 on is going through, especially the political class, to do the form from the international community, the owners community from the i m. s. from the world. but every, the, every but the $17.00 on to duty forms and that the government of lebanon is reluctant to do so. they believe that the deed would, is the pressure. and then, if the, if for thought, is commit that to start working to discover or in, and then or the discovered that would help as well for lebanon to have a better deal with the m s. g as in place. and then for the thing that car, the oil and gas card to get out of the economic crisis we're living in, especially to is the pressure on the reforms that the, that the government is asked to undergo. what about has been law? would it agree to,
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to anything that the lebanese government agrees on under this proposed d, a which, according to reports, again, nothing is confirmed yet. carry shield would remain in these ready waters and a greater share of the kind of field for lebanon, even though we don't know whether there is actual gas in khana would, has been la, agree to this proposal. well, squaws has by law had been consulted on all the steps that led to 2 days proposal. that's why what we're hearing from has was, these are things like this is a positive step towards the solution. that means that they agree on the clauses and the provisions of the deed. so what we are seeing today it's like, has boiler is not very much interested about where the board, those are. it is talking more about like the need to exploit the oil and gas reserves that we have because they do believe that that will change the face of lebanon, and that will have blood on recovery. definitely, we know that this comes with cave. yes. when
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a country like lebanon has full governance, when we have institutional failure, when do we do have corruption as a high, high level corruption? we know that in, in, by, by a, by looking at other places when you have to governance and all these problems with corruption and institution failure on and that doesn't come and has the country to recover. but once again, this is the card that has to push for the, for this money time border to happen because they see it as an economic, as an economy that this, this might have gotten, has economic benefits more than political or anything as alright. laurie as you heard russell sharla say not everyone in israel agrees with this proposed deal. israel, former prime minister and it's opposition leader now, many minutes now accused the current prime minister. yeah. le pete of giving up israeli territory and hiding the details of the proposed steel from the public take listen. will be in mind that will not be does not have
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a mandate to give an enemy country sovereign territories and sovereign property which belonged to all of us. if this illegal hijacking passes, we will not be bound on november. first, we will return to israel a strong and experienced leadership that maintain security for all of us. russell shall have what is at stake foi rail here? well, my, my colleagues were, it's really go to underscore why the is really public as opposed to the steel 1st of all, right. why? why is the, is really government keeping the details of the steel from the company is really public. but there is no reason for israel to, to give what can be going to be turned or can be presented as a, as a victory to, to, to, to because by law the is really public is firmly against territorial concessions. right? we have, we have done that in the past. we've done 11, we've done gas that we've done in many places where not we've, we've only gotten terror. we're not, we're not interested in giving and giving prices to, to,
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to rainy and puppet. but this would allow, is where i would need to, to extract gas from carriage without any security threats because of course, lebanon and bala had threatened, you know, some sort of attack if israel were to go ahead with extracting gas from carriage without this agreement. but now that they seem to be agree, an agreement in the worst, wouldn't this allow israel to, to achieve some of the energy energy needs that it said it would through carriage charisse was, was always under israeli control and is really sovereignty. right. israel should not be listening to, to, to threaten from because, but the truth is because block is a, is a, is a paper tiger. israel should be, should not the condition if it's economic, i think on the growth and access to with natural gas on the, on the bus threat. ok. lori russell is clearly opposed to this proposed deal.
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we heard his position there, but i, i want us to understand what is that steak for israel? here? you've told us about what's at stake for lebanon, but why would the current is really government, agree to this deal as the sign seems to be indicating look from what we're hearing from the israeli side 1st, before they are saying that at the end of the day, if this kind of field is discovered the prospect we will get there and we will get compensation from that the fees. so therefore we're not giving away anything. and then i think the more the major issue for these readings and why they're doing this did is to secure stability in the region. and they feel that if leaven on the undergo embark on finding oil and gas and having a platform very close to that is really easy. so therefore, there will be the students will level on would be less interested in going toward
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with this, right? because they do have this economic interest of keeping the platform working and having all and, and i think one other issue that it's the same and that i'm hearing from the news in israel is like they think that if it did, it may, they're not going to bed between that one on, on 5 or 9 golf, that was even the country that would make 11 or less interested then go we want. and that will be, that will make 11 on less dependent or at least has a detached from iran. wouldn't you think? i went in in lebanese politics and know that will not be right. i mean the one thing that when i mentally has iran yvonne's in iraq, so definitely it was not reduced as well as dependence on iran because iran has one law. they have. this is every nation that will last for ever. and no one has to think that anything that happens 11 on any economic recovery that would mean that
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iran would not go off has been, has well, i would that school of iran that is a very organic relationship and it will not, it will not. and so it's the same like when they think that if iran, if iran goes into a j. c, p, a did again, that will put them away from having a weapon or a nuclear weapon, which will not happen. iran, we want to have nuclear weapon weapon, whatever happens. so at the end of the day is red is looking at this deal from a security lens more than from an economic land, which is on the other side from the revenue side. this is sure economy g d that they're making because they've been on, wants to benefit from its oil and gas sector and move on with the recovery again and taking that with a bit of thought because of the situation. and we have to do the forms before being able to benefits from our oil and gas sector. but at least this is what this pushing that have been used. government and the israeli government is pushed by the
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security obsession that they have. and they think this would bring them stability and it will stabilize the orders. ok, russell. your response laurie says israel through this deal is looking for a sick for more or better security. what is your view on this? so 1st i would like to make 2 points, right? currently iran spacing major address, the continuing a rule of the ice whole as the aquatic regime is being threatened. so again, israel and the united states national for community should not be, should be standing with uranium people and not doing that well. to do right now, we're living on the run directly with israel, with a us mediator. yes, level, lebanon, lebanon, lebanon is a, is a puppet regime of, of iran, but, but 2nd of all, right, i want to speak about domestic israeli legal issues. right?
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again, we have an election here in one, in one month, right? the current government is a transitional government. it has no mandate to make it to make this deal and, and legally it's bound to act in, in the act with restraints for the more, according to is really constitutional law. the, the transfer of any sovereign is really towards the territory requires a national referendum. so, so, so, so guess if there, if there, if there will be another government in, in november that government will not be bound by the conditions and the terms of the steel. so you're saying that this might drive on because indeed netanyahu as, as promised to take this through the legal route, if the deal goes through and is agreed by the current government, what impact is it going to have on the elections you think? i mean, i think that this could, this could potentially sharpen the divide between,
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between like within less, less than right, unfortunately, right. israel been having an election instability, much of a campaign isn't based on, on, on perth, on different personalities. but this will, will clarify the majority of these really population is again, territorial concessions. and you see a center left, the government being a power only 2 or 2 or 3 months and already agreeing to give up to give up is really territory. and again, and again, if, if they want to, if they wants to do this, then make public the details of this deal. i'm sure the details will be made public in just a few days. laurie, let me come back to you and talk more about the implications for lebanon. you mentioned that having access to, to natural gas fields, would no doubt be a welcome source of revenue for lebanon. but how do we ensure, as you've said that the money would benefit the lebanese people and that it won't
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disappear in the coffers of a corrupt government where there is no regulation of the funds. how do we ensure that there is transparency and so definitely, and so they, we the ones that we cannot and for that. and, but let me tell you that this issue of developing oil and gas resources into becoming and production and into becoming revenues if you want to monetize it. it takes a lot a lot of time. so if we are going to start, like it's not going to start a floating 1st, we need to have discoveries can show you to read or to cyprus or to eat just we don't have discoveries yet. so 1st we have to go into discoveries that takes time. then we need to decide like how to develop and produce the golf and what the markets will be. is it local market or regional market or international markets. all of that requires a lot of time because of the lesson. and it requires a vision for the country which we like on all levels vision we lock slot that you
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will act investment to be that because we lack any kind of recovery plan. so definitely there is a lot of work. that's why i'm seeing that we shouldn't go easy on the political class or shouldn't what is on the government of lebanon, and let us go and take it easy on them when it comes to the form reforms i missed the city so that we are able to benefit from the oil and gas sector and for the nice people to benefit from the oil and gas sector. so that's why maybe today this deal would be one step forward. but there's a lot that they use population needs to do to ensure that the government is going through the forms as we would need the help of the international community to force level on and the government to go into the reform. so that later on when oil and gas comes, it could support the economy and that could benefit the people unless we don't, we don't do all of this. it will be another way for generations to come. and so laurie, looking at the big picture now, and looking at the political issues a bit closer, where wouldn't agreement leave the broader israeli lebanese dynamic?
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do you think it would help reduce tensions? a look definitely. it's when a diffuse tension, but it will not need to anything more than that. i know we've been hearing about normalization. we've been hearing about possible peace. all of all of that is not on the agenda of the lebanese people on the lebanese government. this is a deal that is necessary to unlock the potential for oil and gas, and this is how the government of lebanon is doing it. and it was up there. if we think that this did might, and the d and the war between 11 on israel or the situation between 111 on is right and it will need to piece this is wrong. it's not going to be to lead to that place. so this is just to me and an opportunity for the lebanese government to sign the seat and to move on with the unlocking the potential for oil and gas
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and, and that's it. it stops there. ok, russell. let me ask you the same question in west jerusalem, what, what are the implications for the broader relationship between israel and lebanon? could this help reduce tensions if it is agreed? so, you know, i would, i would hope that webinar on. the 11th people are able to get their house in order and get rid of the business bought seriously. and they say, there's no reason that's because by law, right, couldn't join the somebody to be, to be, to the amorous the bahrain to morocco. the abraham accord and reap the reap the benefits of trade. a normalization with israel. unfortunately, this, this deal is not even a, a direct agreement between israel and 11 on its agreement with the united states and on sunday, with the, with, with the united states. and unfortunately, i don't see the steel leading to any sort of normalization of fact that only it
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only strengthens his beloved rejection. as an extreme, it's politics laurie. i want to let you respond to that. russell seems to give a lot of importance to hesper law in terms of, you know, they're the place in the go see ations in the, in the steel. is that the case? i mean, is really running things here. look, i think they are in the they are in the, in the period of elections as it was mentioned. and during elections, we become very populous at the end of the day. and that's on yahoo has decided to go to negotiations between with lebanon. and i think by, by october 2021, the new construction were launched. and the fun, yeah, was empower, still has been, i wasn't lebanon. and today, after 2 years has been listed in lebanon. so i think that what will is the brought off of the, of what's happening of the extra. now it's just like we can put it in the, in the,
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in the environment of elections. and that's it. i think after the election is not on, you know, it comes to power and the deed is made, he would follow the close of the v and he would not cancel it. all right, we had thought that the negotiate, she did stop the negotiations. indeed, we're going to have to leave it there. thank you very much both for a very interesting discussion, lori. hey, ty and russell shall have. thank you for joining us and thank you for watching. you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website on algae 0 dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can of course, also join the conversation on twitter. we are a great inside story from me, full back to boys whole team. thanks for watching. i for the ah
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october on al jazeera campaigning for nigerian elections begins as candidates vive for votes and what is set to be a decisive and close race. emmy award winning folk lines returns with an exclusive investigation into alleged cover ups by the us border patrol. china holds its national congress of communist party members with president g likely to be re elected as its head. what does this mean for china and the world? fully retrieved, takes you beyond the glitz and glamour, revealing the stories of those seeking famous 14 in the world, the largest film interstate, 60 years on from the cuban missile crisis. we asked what can be learned from events that lead the world to the brink of nuclear war. october on al jazeera talk to al
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