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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  October 11, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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and he's also applied for a gun license. the teams had come poach, they'll bring one gun for the right. they'll bring 2 guns for us. it is very risky. no arrests had been made in connection with anton's murder. as well as wild life ant on also had a passion for teaching young people about conservation. you said, you know, if i, if our children, if my children don't see the value, the beauty of i don't even have empathy care, compassion and standing for wildlife. how can i expect him to protect that wildlife? had rolled massey's helping to continue antwan's legacy. and while the films ending has changed, it's message has not. emily anglin, al jazeera had sprayed south africa. now, wellington zu in new zealand has doubled its population of endangered ring tailed lemurs, following the birth of 4 sets of twins, the number of newborns means the zoo can now become part of an international breeding program. it's national union for the conservation of nature classifies
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lemurs as the world's most endangered group of mammals. they only breed once a year. ah, you're watching al jazeera here, your headlines this, our lebanon in israel appear to have reached a deal. i disputed maritime border is really prime minister. your la pete says his country has approved the us brokerage proposal, calling it a historic deal. lebanon's has bowler also agreed. bernard smith has more from west jerusalem. this ralph prime minister jala pe describes this as on historic agreement. he says that will strengthen israel security, inject billions into israel's economy, and ensure stability of a northern border. there was a bit of a hiccup. last week, it was supposed to been agreed then, but lebanon had made some other demands about demarcation boys in the water between
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israel and lebanon's waters and about possible payment of fees from any gas that might be taken from a, a field other struggle. the border between israel and 11 on but somehow after a lot of back and forth between the u. s. mediator, they've reached an agreement. ukraine is calling the g 7 group of nations to supply era defense weapons after a wave of russian strikes, killed in 1900 people on monday. further strikes have been reported in the past few hours in the beavens upper region. the governor in the southeast region says a school was among the buildings attack on tuesday morning. the leaders of palestine rival political parties, a meeting in l. julia, the 2 days of reconciliation talks has the latest effort to solve the more than a decade long rift between hamas and fatah. after previous agreements have failed. several people have died in colorado, brake and haiti. more than 150 suspected cases have been reported. health officials war and the number of cases could increase due to lack of clean drinking water and
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cramped living conditions. it was a storm julia has killed at least 25 people as it moved across. central america storm is weakening, but it continues to cause heavy rains and flooding. el salvador has declared a national emergency through the newest political party has been declared. the winner of last week's general election, the 7 month old revolution for prosperity party, $156.00 seats. now that's short of majority. so the newcomers will need to form a coalition. those are headlines on al jazeera, but the news continues after inside story. stay with us. ah,
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it is the latest source of tension between the united states and china. president joe biden is accused of weapon ising technology for imposing sweeping controls on sales of semiconductors to beijing. what's behind this decision, and how much is it down to politics? this is inside thought, ah hello, welcome to the program i'm hasn't seek a technology is the latest sector to be affected by tensions between the u. s. and china. washington has imposed sweeping controls on exports of semiconductors, also known as microchips to beijing. american companies will be restricted from selling advanced chips to china and supplying chinese firms with tools to make their own. department of commerce says it is to prevent sensitive technologies from
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falling into the hands of china's military intelligence and security services. the u. s. has been trying to boost its own semiconductor industry. in august, president joe biden approved $52000000000.00 in federal subsidies for new manufacturing plants and research. china is trying to move ahead of us and manufacturing them. it's no wonder, literally the chinese communist party actively lobbied against the chips and science fact that i've been pushing in the united states congress. the communist party of china was lobbying in the united states congress against passages legislation and enforcing some work friends and the other team bought it. united states has to lead the world producing these advanced chips. this law is going to make sure that it will, what time has accused the us of using science and technology as a political weapon may go to you. we also need to maintain it,
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scientific hedge money. the recipes is export control measures to maliciously block and suppressed chinese companies. this practice deviates from the principle of fair competition and violates international cannot make and trade rule. it will not only damage and legitimate rights and interests of chinese companies, but also affects american companies interests. and let's take a closer look at why a semi conductors are important to global manufacturing, also known as sammy's, or chips. semiconductors on needed to run nearly everything that has an electronic component from smart phones to cause and military equipment. the global semi conductor market was valued at about $595000000000.00 in 2021 and is expected to become a trillion dollar industry by 2030 countries producing the most semiconductors are china, india, and the u. s. but technologically, all trail, taiwan that is the most advance, it makes 65 percent as well,
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chips and nearly 90 percent of the most advanced. ah, well let's bring in our gifts now to talk more about this from dubai. we have a suki chef street, an associate fellow in the asia pacific program of chatham house, from shanghai, dan wang, a chief economist at hank saying, bank china and from london yang wang, a senior analyst at counter points. that is a global technology market research firm. good to have you with us. so the suki, if i could start, would you, what's the, the thinking behind this decision by the u. s. in terms of putting the pressure on china. i think one should look at the historical perspective where the, the export controls have been used by the u. s. essentially dating back to the board or. right. so you have export controls, mainly targeted the former soviet union in the 1950s, sixties and seventies,
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which are mainly and at a stemming. and he advances that the soviet union could make in the andreas that was under way to really for obviously the geopolitical context has changed or in this era. and the primary us motivation and you know, last friday the decision comfortable comes on top of many, many other bits a, she's taking the last 2 to 3 recognition by success, a fish that we are now, you know, technological race. and component of that, of course, is an armstrong and primacy of you know, developing these advanced computing capabilities of which, you know, the semiconductor really are enablers of these technologies. who are able to moscow . this will have a huge, logically edge work with a competitive. and in this case,
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obviously the u. s. thinking mainly of china. right. and want to seen a lot of narrative that these can explore controls are somewhat new. that's absolutely not true. and also to look at it purely from the perspective of a nation state, trying to protect it. so logically h a u. s. is relevant in its rights to impose these export controls. and obviously there extra territories in the sense that u. s. allies who have access to these technology will not be able to transfer them or what to try. right, to not see technical trade conception or why why this has been designed to be interested in design. obviously, there's a huge your critical context to this. you mentioned taiwan earlier, that taiwan is clearly the hub global seneca under to production. and you know,
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any country that is able, 1st of all, to protect it flanks at all. to make sure that the technologies it produces does not get transferred in this case to china. now, the 2nd element of this really is to make sure that the taiwanese manufacturers, they'll be somebody conductance leaning more towards the us side than the chinese side. and this is going to be a delicate diplomatic dance, as it unfolds of the next 5 years. and so dan wang, at how do you expect china to react to this? they have already said that this is that the u. s. is, is, is kind of trying its way around here in the semiconductor market to buy yet using it as, as a, as a political weapon. but how do you expect china to had expect them to respond to this? well, china has been well aware of the technological decoupling with a us for a long time, so it has been redoubling is to be self sufficient in ship manufacturing. and from
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this point on, we can definitely go back to france that will be taken by the chinese government. one is on the financing of the chip industry in china. they already got a huge financial support, mostly from the city and provincial governments. but the central government has been supporting a large fund trying to develop this. i'm a conductor sector, and the 2nd one is about talent. in the past decade, china has been hiring very aggressively from ty, once, especially from the t s. m. c. to replenish its talent in terms of entrepreneurs engineers to develop its domestic sector. but at this point, there has been a bottleneck in the past 3 years on the labor mobility inflow into china has been significantly slowed. and the economics prospect for china has also been much dimmer than before. so there has been some shaking confidence about where china can
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go from this point. if we can keep up its openness in the coming years, then i still believe there is a chance that china can develop quite fast about his domestic ability to produce chips. young, why do you share perspective? i mean, the attention here by the united states is to try and set chinese chip makers back by, by years. could they do that? well, i think the measures that we have seen since last week. definitely. well, you could definitely see the rationale behind the us administration. you look at this from an angle, not just the measures last week, but a slew of policies in, in recent years. you start with what we call the tech war, starting from a band of always a t equipment in 2018 and more recently severe cups. most of your
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clubs on the chinese tech industry and more recently restrictions on export of us semiconductors and, and the policies from last week we could see even further criminalization of some of the restrictions. and this one includes the sale of semiconductor manufacturing equipment as well as restrictions on plus and now exchanges. so i could say that the, the, the policies have been fairly consistent. and that, that us administration is really flexing as muscle. and looking deeper and looking, keeping to where the values fly in the semi conductor supply chain. one could say that they are landing the punches where they intend to. and the purpose of it is that of course ensuring supremacy over us leading edge technology and manufacturing
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. but also to kneecaps china's technological development. the suki. shasta, is there a danger that this move could ignite tensions further between china and the united states? i mean, i think that's a baseline expectation that this is sparkle, continuing saga that is going to unfold in the next few years. it is, it is the greatest drama and town watching both the us and china attempting to gain a logical supremacy in all of these new area to know artificial intelligence, machine learning which is what the semiconductors and advanced computing capabilities are going to enable. so the question is, are the global rules of the road which will enable the u. s. and china come together, you know, almost like a tree in agreement on the sensitive, technological light and in the room for that seems very, very limited. in fact,
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on the global trading front is very little consensus amongst members of the w t. o to come to any kind of agreement on the global rules of the road. you know, they've tried for many times and all over the past few decades and have not succeeded. so it's very difficult to see anyone defining these transfers of technology as constituting normal, you know, exchange of trade goods and services between countries. and the u. a fairly is using that sovereign exception in this case. so no pensions, absolutely going to rights. are they going to rise not only in this matter field of semiconductors, but it is going to have ripple effects elsewhere and no one should really close. the watch developments in taiwan, but, you know, in any case got aggravated after the nancy pelosi visit
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a few months ago. let's talk a little bit more about taiwan. we mentioned at the top there how pivotal at taiwan is to the semiconductor industry. it's essentially cornered the market on semiconductors. dan wang, what's, what's tie one's role going to be in all of this given to the close relations it has with the united states and the fact that china considers taiwan renegades province. but there is, there is an understanding there that china doesn't want to put too much pressure on taiwan because of its dependence of the dependence that it has on, on taiwan semiconductors. while when it comes to the ship manufacturing, china absolutely rely on imports. and taiwan has been a major source advanced chips for mainland china. and when we look at the competition between us and china, everybody is, we're very clear about what's the end game is. it's basically the transformative
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technology in the future. and china wants to transition economy from a bus mon loudly economy, to a consumer base economy. things like e commerce, smartphones, online payments, or even digital money has become very important on chips which china cannot make. and mostly only can be made by t s. m. c would be essential in this transition. now, recently we have seen more tact restrictions from the us and that's partly triggered by some breakthrough of the chinese company. because some chinese company has been able, as n i, c, a specifically has been able to getting close to make its own southern nanometers, chip. and the previously, it was already able to make the 14 nanometer chips at a reasonable scale. so one can only anticipate more tac restrictions on china
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right now. the bite and ration is very clear on getting more aligned with its allies, including europe, including taiwan, in order to curb their ship exports, to china. and what's gonna happen, maxed. really depend on how much more that abide, ministration is willing to do and on the china side on the only thing that we can anticipate for sure, is that a work for sure, it will definitely provide more financing, more policy support and absolutely more talent support for its domestic trip industry, young one, what's your take on, on the implications of all of this for taiwan? well, certainly tall one is in a very tight spot. on the, on the, we have, we have seen for the past couple of years. the geopolitical tensions and also that
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had and also due to cobra, there was some ripple effects over the supply chain. covered disruption is definitely had some huge impact to our industry casing. point some call manufacturers were running off half of the normal manufacturing capacity. so globally, there's huge demand for the products that come out of t. s mc fab's intel one. now test and see is a, is a global company. the reason that it exists is that it tries to take a neutral stance and collaborate with all the other partners, the semi conductor value chain. it's extremely long. it's, it's, it's a very specialized area all the way from materials design. i p equipment manufacturing packaging. so the reason that yes m c succeeded is not only the on the expertise,
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but also in an open collaboration attitude it had with customers. so. so basically what we're looking at is tier and c and some of the supply chain companies in columns really being squeezed from non market forces. they really have to take. busy difficult decisions, whether to align with the u. s. driven policies, as well as catering to the, to the markets because been located things i want and close to the some of the biggest customers in japan and korea and in china really benefited them. so if it would come to a place that they had to move some of the assets to other places, it's really, it could be a logistic and financial challenge for them. i'm not saying that they will not do it, but definitely it is one of the concerns for their management. yeah, the suki, i mean, as, as, as yang was saying that there's a lot of interconnecting parts to,
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to the semiconductor industry. and if this policy is going to be, this policy from the u. s. is going to be effective. it needs everybody to do their part, so to speak. that means other countries allied with the u. s. other foreign companies to, to go along with what the u. s is trying to do how essential is that for this to work? well the us are already introduced. the framework should make the coupling reality and reference to be in the pacific become a framework putting signatory countries. digital cooperation is one of the pillows off the best. so in the american condition on this is the absolute, if you would like to share these advanced computing capabilities with dice on very,
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very strict conditions. no access to this information should not be shared with the chinese and you know, embedded in this. obviously it's not only focused on intellectual property and digital issues. there's also a critical bit and see how these trade, whether it mos into a free trade agreement type of c, p t, p, p. a bit early to speculate on that. but i think the u. s. geostrategic position on this is obviously to rally and mobilize a group of allies, not only measure, but obviously in europe, in the context of russia and ukraine already beginning to see that in order to build this coalition for which as many clients, technology and the conductance being one of that, and it is this very broad strategic approach that the u. s. horse will help again,
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a technological edge over a period of time or what it regards as in door made by china or the kid, and also accusations about intellectual property. and so this, that essentially taking a cohesive approach in order to address let's just take a step back from this for a moment because a lot of people i know will be, will be wondering, what does this all going to mean for things like personal devices, phones and other electronic devices that sort of thing. you know, we can, we talked a lot about military hardware, but how is this going to, is it going to affect it all our daily use of these devices and getting the most advanced one next year and the year after that, let me, let me put that to you a young way certainly is a concern given that we have on our watch a sort of
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a development of 2 different standards. and in terms of the consumer market, i would say in the short to medium term that it is not, not as big issue as expected because we in the short term looking at the semiconductor and, and global consumer tech industry. we are now in a downturn, as we can see from the global macroeconomic environment, inflation globally, and consumer spending being squeeze energy prices increasing. so we have already seen some key consumer electronics come in. companies coming out with earnings, revisions, capital, capex cuts and hiring freezes, which all point to the effect that the market is heading to a down to. and semiconductors, being the enabler of global consumer technology,
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invariably will feel the pen tooth now. so in the short term, what we're looking at in this, in this came up the policy reducing demand, reducing supply. but we are also facing much more rapid reduction into monk. so in the short to medium term, we are unlikely to see a significant change, or at least as much as we experienced during cold times. now, but in the medium to long term, that definitely would be something to think about. because as i, as i mentioned, if companies are having to make decisions to move their assets, capacities, and personnel around it is almost a break from where the current ways of doing things. they need to change their operating patterns. and there will be financial, as well as operational, last involved in the by the nature of the semiconductor and tech value chain. in
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general, it is a very long chain. and a lot of things need to go right and know many things. a lot of things could also go wrong. it is already fragile, as we've seen the past couple of years. we definitely can kind of have higher risks coming to the market in the, in the next few years. then when, what if you think this is going to have on consumers? well, we have to remember that the us didn't deny china's access for all chip. it only when it comes to the most advanced trips that will go in smartphones like i phone or self driving vehicles. that's where the export fan happens. so at this point, china is able to increase actually a global and sale and global share of the chips. the suki, what effect do you think this is going to have on personal technology? i think, you know, we focus
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a lot of hardware and i agree that on the hardware things are probably not going to change the next few years. but i think when digital standards and software, we already see a decoupling between chinese standards and the rest of the world. and you know, that is going to have a profound impact in the way of beacon view of technology. and in the way the chinese were good consume technology and of course, we know both of these are competing system will be built on cutting edge hardware and software where they going to have very, very different philosophies, an operating system that reflects, of course, why the us and china are in these 10, she's in the past space. so this is the company of standards, potentially mean doc, you know that the world that we've been asked to, yes,
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it's been seamless. frictionless. baby been able to move from one country to the other with the single operating system, but that essentially is going to play. and this is what the american moves over the past week. essentially suggest, all right on that we will have to leave it. thank you very much. all 3 of you, the suki. yes, tree, dan wang and yang. thanks so much for being on it. so i story and thank you. as always for watching, remember you can see it again any time just go to our website at 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle . there is an a j inside story for me hasn't figured out in here, but now ah
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