again, seems like brazil, columbia, olivia mexico, very nervous about bizarre because i feel like they have soccer in their blood. so, but i think this composition will be a learning experience and very good competitions to help us. but our game or level our game of i'm very excited for that before i thought i wasn't gonna stay it longer to at least experience one of the games, but i'm still going to be watching everyone the world cup game. all my teammates are i think all of us are mexican american or alleys have hispanic background. i feel like everyone in the other countries are expecting you know, americans actual like americans born in america, parents, pope america. but we're going with parents immigrant. parents make them proud and tell them what we can do.

ah, this is al jazeera, these top stories. inflation threatens to become a runaway train. that is, the warning from the head of the international monetary fund is the global economies hit by one shock off to another. that if the i'm f says the risk of global recession mays at 25 percent, we cannot, we cannot possibly allow inflation to become a runaway train bed for growth and bed for people. but it's better, especially for poor, poor, poor, poor people. and the i m f has chastised the u. k. government off to its financial plans triggered chaos in the markets. many budget reveal last month has sent the valley of the british pound. all time lies. more than 500 people have died in nigeria, west floods and a decade. unusually heavy rains,

lead to the destruction of tens of thousands of homes. the u. n. z. yemen and void is calling on warning parties to renew their cease fire hands. greenberg blamed hersey rebels for the failure to extend the truce. there has been a decrease in violence before the april cease. 5 d elapsed earlier this month. board is now have a ga before them. who can choose to preserve and burden of a truce towards peace. as is expected from weather yet minute population otherwise, return to war would mean renewed, an increasing suffering for the civilian population. iraq's parliament, as finally elected a new president, the appointment of 78 year old kurdish politician abdullatif. rashid ends months of political deadlock and heightened instability. during the year, essays of florida has recommended life in prison without parole for the pumpkins.

school shooter, nicholas cruz admitted killing 14 students and 3 staff in 2018. it is the deadliest ma shooting to reach a jury trial in the u. s. b u. s. house. select committee investigating last year, storming of capitol hill has voted to subpoena, former us president donald trump, to testify. trump has never before been forced to give evidence before congress, not even during his to impeachment trials inside story coming up next. ah the whist is yet to come. that's the warning from the international monetary fund

as it pilots the grim picture of the global economy. but what's behind the spiraling crisis, and what should be done to stop it? this is inside story. ah. hello, welcome to the program. i'm tom a crime, the international monetary fund and the world bank holding the annual meetings in washington, d. c. to discuss a number of global issues, the war and you crime persistence, supply chain disruptions and a looming recession. a topping the agenda just to name a few. the i am if says the world economy is hitting for what it calls stormy waters. as the many risk fact, as accumulates, a downgraded it's global growth projections for next year, and warned of a harsh world wide recession. if the fight against inflation is mishandled. a

3rd of the global economy expected to contract this year or next. the 3 largest economies, the united states, china, and the your area will continue to stall. in short, the worst is yet to come. and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession. well, now the question remains, who will pick up the pieces? we'll live in on the economic collapse, for example, is accelerating in the absence of a government recovery plan. the international community has made clear the only way out of the crisis through a deal with the i m f. but we'll get to our guests in a moment. but 1st this report from st hotter in beirut, lebanon's economic crisis is heading into his 4th year. the state is nearly bankrupt. it can't buy fuel for electricity.

infrastructure is falling apart. while institutions struggle to afford basic operating costs that a desperate need for hard currency, the international community made clear any funding will only come from the international monetary fund. that means we forming a dysfunctional system blamed on decades of management and corruption. but there hasn't been political will to ruling any, doesn't want to reform because it to undermine the structure of their power that has been going on for 30 years. now. the country's leaders have refused to open the books at the central bank. they fail to pass laws to investigate all financial crimes and stuff, billions of dollars being transferred abroad. instead,

the shared interests of the political and financial elite have led to bank customers suffering losses and being denied access to their savings. any financial program between the i m, f and lebanon would involve passing structural reforms, and anti corruption measures to improve governance that's likely to hurt the interests of politicians accused of using the states for the interest of themselves and their associates. this was once a middle income country, but the local currency has lost value and its financial losses are estimated to amount to $72000000000.00. that is 4 times the size of the economy. official fe, they remain committed to the path laid out by the i m f. but there's still no consensus on a recovery plan. major reforms normally economic and was, can go on, i would say any. and on normal circumstances in lebanon, we need stability on the bill of political living all the while. one of the world's

worst meltdowns deepens. by the day, seneca, there al jazeera battled. ah, well, it's bring in our guests now in brussels. we have daniel gross had director of the center for european policy studies in new delhi, mignon, decide economist and a member of the u. k. house of lords and in nairobi. ali can such a fort financial advisor and ceo of rich management. a will welcome to you. well, thank you very much for being on this edition of inside story. daniel, if i can start with you, are you used to work at the i am, if how solid or reliable are these forecasts mean? the m f is always extremely careful. it collects information from all member countries to have the suburban staff, all the ticket tours. so i think these forecasts are as reliable as you can do them

right now. but if you have altered roles in publication, there's great uncertainty, little uncertainty above it might be a little bit better, but also lots of uncertainty below so it might get worse. that's all, but one could say at this point, economics, it's not a physical science, there's always a lot of uncertainty. okay, magnet. do you agree with the myth, grim outlook, the global economy as hitting for stormy waters and help you think things could gaze? yes i, i think i not only agree with the ira down grading the growth rate. i think it is going to be much more serious than even the i am a realizes because we are seeing a repetition of what we saw in the 19 seventy's. we have an energy price increase we had, which was preceded by inflationary creation of money. and now we are going to also

be in a war situation because of the russia ukraine war. and i think i'll say, a long cycle of stark lation. and there's nothing that normal sandra banking policy can do to avoid that question. all that the central bank can do is to cut them out, but that is not the answer. so we are going to be in a very tough time. so we just have to, i'm every right to get one about that so, so the global economy just has to ride it out. that's one reason does india, it globally gallery, which is going to smooth l. yeah. okay, ali can the i me, i am, if chief seat of all regions, africa is in the most precarious position. you know, with a, with a massive food crisis there. what specifically can the, i am, if did it alleviate the problems in africa?

well i think come, you know, the african situation has been coming at us for quite a while. africa over borrowed during the good times. you know, when we were in that moment, which lasted more than a decade of disneyland economics, when money was cheap, and now we got a situation where the cost of servicing this debt has risen inexorably high. for example, nigeria, a 102 percent of its revenues now are destined for debt service, clearly and unsustainable position. saving africa is going to rely very heavily on the likes of the i m f and the world bank. but it's going to take a lot of a money to re balance the situation. just to go back to what both your earlier speakers was saying that you know what we have now is a very strong dollar. it's highly likely the euro goes back to record lowes. it's

highly likely the dollar yet goes to something like $160.00. and this is going to put immense pressure on emerging and frontier market economies. and i think therefore, these economies are essentially going to be looking for debt restructuring and debt rescheduling. but because of the nature of this crisis, which is a poly crisis, and it's got cascade effects, you know, it's 1st come 1st serve to so in africa, zambia hytcher. lemme 1st out of the gate, he's going to resolve the matter, hopefully. but others i think, are going to be really left in the dust here. which countries are you talking about specifically? well, i'm talking specifically about countries like a nigeria. i'm talking about, which just simply, you know, the political class really haven't got a handle on things. but this is a problem we're seeing in many other places around the world. it's not just a phenomena we're seeing in africa. you see the trust in quoting show. i mean,

these people are not competent. and in africa we've got plenty of policy makers who i think are not on top of the situation. so it, zambia is a positive example in egypt, has a lot of support from its international institutions and deep pocketed gulf allies . but you know, if you look at places like ethiopia fighting a civil war, essentially with a $1000000000.00 of reserves is it's broke. and then continuing the sexy central battle. and there are so many cases like that across the continent. but, you know, you started your show with lebanon, and let me say this, i strikes me that europe is not much different to lebanon. it had leverage from russia in terms of its gas supplies. $20000000000.00 of gas supported a 2 trillion euro economy in germany. that's more leverage than leman, and i think by december, what we're seeing in lebanon will be replicated in many capitals around europe. i'm

afraid so it's a very, very big problem. i don't think the majority of policy makers have truly understood the scale of the issue. daniel, i say you smiling along there, is that something that you agree with that we're going to say, i, you know, the, what's happened in lebanon happening in and some other, your european countries. it is true that europe must pay a price and a heavy price for an over reliance on russian gas. but the time i say so, europe is a little bit better government than lebanon. we have constant squabbles and my member states, but in the end they usually agree on a common line. and that seems to be the case. also, no european, most many european countries already have saved a lot of gas. the price for consumers has increased and that is good. so because therefore further cost savings will be forthcoming. and therefore i am quite confident that europe will be able to pose through this printer not easily. there

will be problems, but we all know that these are temporary problems. and in the end, europe has also a very strong industrial base. our export us has been able to also to increase their price. so there's some offset to the high gas prices. and over all, i think europe will come through it with a recession in between. but in one year from now, i think the recession should be behind us in europe. okay. can we just talk a little bit about, you know, the real people. if i can put it that way, the, the people on the street with thing, you know, everyone brought around the world, paying more for power, more for food. more on the mortgage is basically everything is getting more expensive. other be plenty of people watching this, wondering how much worse it's going to get. mig ned, how, when do you think there will be some relief? will it be in a year's time? the thing is that we can take

a short run perspective on this problem. the problem is, i'm going to go away anytime soon, because this, what do, what is previous be concerned about, you know, will be slightly better off than middle eastern countries or african country. but everybody is going to be in a city church on a country rich producers of energy and can deliver energy to people who are in demanding position. they are the only ones until the rest of the world is going to. so i wouldn't say it because i keep on saying, and all that the central banks will do is to make the decision worse. that is what the federal reserve is doing by making the dollars strong. it's going to ruin the situation in us, everyone else. unfortunately, we haven't found a way of finding in vision. we got to call this issue. and that is where the

problem lies. and i'm, if you the very, with your part of that the solution. ok, eli can you mentioned a little while ago i did. and 60 percent of low income countries are now at high risk or already in debt distressed. that's according to the i'm, if i'm of, as he many poor countries are going to face major economic disruption and potentially default on that debt. how big a risk is that? do you think? how likely is it to happen? oh, it's entirely likely to happen. you're looking at, we're looking at the i m f is looking at the following metric. they're looking at debt versus g, d, p. and, and, and looking at that metric, really the number you got to look at is debt service versus revenues. and in so many countries, the debt service number is now higher than the total government revenue number. so it's that, so basically these balance sheets are shot to bits and, and unless there is enormous debt forgiveness or you know,

it's an unsustainable situation. the freight train, we can see the lights were in the tunnel and it's coming out of tremendous speed. and there's no way of site stepping it unless a countries are you know, unless the likes the i m f, the big credit is a go through a massive round of debt forgiveness and look at restructuring these balance sheets . little bit like a dead under nicholas brady. and the brady plan when latin america over borrowed all those years ago. your previous speaker was speaking about elegy, i don't think it's a sanitary, it's of you know, you can't print elegy and food. and those countries that have energy and food, and ironically counter intuitively, it's russia and the us, they are the most, they're the strongest economies in the current scenario. if you can't, if you can't print those things, and this is the european challenge of unfortunately, amongst other countries, challenges. so i don't see cost of living relief coming anytime soon. we have

a mickey mouse monetary policy who has been able to bring in fl shouldn't down when inflation is 8.2 percent in the us with interest rates below fall. i've never seen that happen. it's not going to work. you've got to get interest rates much higher, and that's the only way you're going to bring inflation down and the cost of living until we have that happen. the cost of low will continue to increase and it puts undue pressure on people at the bottom of the pyramid who experience much more of that pressure. i'd love to keep talking about policy for a little bit, daniel, the, i'm, if chiefs it politicians have to avoid any policy missteps and have to act act urgently . what exactly do you want to see those and power do and how fast do they need to act? so we don't see any more. mickey mouse like him, eli can just mentions cause it depends

on what country in the world you're talking about. the united states to believe sitting pretty it has enough oil and gas to keep its own economy afloat. so for its own good, it was just keep inflation down and that will require a strong dollar full time in europe. what we have to do is to combine 2 things. we have to give people incentives to save on gas and energy in general. that means high prices, but we also help have to have our poor ones to support themselves and to be able to pay those prices. and that's for example, being done right now in germany where people get a certain base amount of energy for free. and for the rest of the market have to pay the market price so that they are, have actually incentive to, to save all $3.00 kinds of calls, a very different story. but again, in africa, one might ask, now do it's a country which is a big export our of energy, of petro,

of crude oil. and the crude oil prices are currently very high. why is nigeria not doing very well right now? so these are really very serious internal governance problems that people have beforehand. and i think these are the most urgent bonds that have to be addressed in africa course along with fiscal policy. but one without the other. we're not work. ok, obviously the war in ukraine is exacerbating all of these issues. the me slide out a whole lot of challenges. it basically says inflation is the top priority, and we can't do you think it can be timed inflation. that is, while the war and ukraine is still going on, do you think the war has to wind before inflation can be brought under control? i think, particularly for europe where, you know, german inflation, for example, has hit a 40 year high until that situation resolves itself. and the supply

of not only gas oil, the europeans now want to sanction russian oil or put a price gap on it. you know, it is a boomerang effect, the it defeats b, how the european policy bakers pursue this sanction policy, which is a boomerang and hitting their economy $34.00 times as hard as it's hitting the intended for the, the, the intended adversary. so look until that relaxes inflation. what relaxed in europe in particular and, and globally as well. but what, what we really have the biggest problem here in i traded short term interest rates . i've never seen a lag between interest or between policy rates and inflation rates that we currently have. the germans, for example, had a bank all the bond us bank. i mean interest rates in germany at this point in time . if the buddhist bank were in control, would be at 12 percent, and essentially it would break the back of the inflationary problem. but we don't

live in those times. we live in a time of still fantasy economics. but where people still think they can print or all kinds of commodities, which they can't, daniel, is there any country that we can look to now that's doing a good job that we can go. that's the way to handle this crisis. yes, you might look, for example, at the nordic countries which have been very careful with their energy supplies. they have insulated their home state actually doing quite well under the circumstances. switzerland, another country riches noticed and noted for its tired pisca and monetary policies . but even at switzerland you have seen price increases. so one thing is you cannot avoid all the price increases. and the other thing is, if you have a strong domestic governance, then you can actually minimize the effect. but let me add one thing. it is not necessary for the ukrainian war to finish for inflation to come down in europe. it

is sufficient that energy prices just stabilize at the very high level of which they are right now. and then inflation on its own will come down because there will be no further increases in energy prices. and that would be enough for europe or to see inflation coming down to acceptable levels in one or 2 years. so europe can pull through even if the war continues for a long time. ok, ellie can't do you think that term the poor are going to be unduly hit through this crisis that they are, the ones that are going to be, were started, inequality is, is just gonna grow even further from here. so that's been one of the trends that we've seen over the last 12 to 18 months, significant increases inequality, more people being put into poverty. and i'm afraid that trend is amplifying as, as the global economy softens. and of course, you know, if you take somewhere like africa the, the average individual is spending up to 40 percent of their income on food. and

therefore increases in food prices. have a much more severe effect on, on, on the, on the income and spending power of those people. so, you know, i don't want to be a terrible pessimist, but i'm really concerned. and i think that's why this whole social safety net idea really has to be rolled out for the most needy people across the globe. and i think, you know, this is the moment when you really have to put those sorts of programs and safety nets into place. daniel is theora. yeah, there are silver lining here. as we talked about the train coming towards us in the tunnel with the lights on the rti light at the end of the tunnel. i think the current trends in energy markets are actually reassuring. because prize has almost half all was the last 2 months. and the oil price is coming slightly don't, although hope bank has decided to reduce its production. so i think we might,

yeah, that actually winter where oil prices moderate, even though the war continues. and that will take off some pressure on inflation that might also allow the federal reserve to a little bit soft, not, and therefore to the dollar to return to more manageable level for many emerging markets. so that is the good scenario. okay, well, that least something just before we go, i'd like to ask you both this question we'll set with you can do you think that the i am, if it's still relevant in this day and age for the process, the sludge? absolutely. i think it's more relevant than ever. i mean, the question then becomes, where is it going to be? is it being effective in the need for organization i m f at this moment in time, is massive. everybody needs the i m f as far as i can see. but the question is,

are they had, they got sufficient resources to apply at this time at this moment in time? and are they applying those resources effectively? but definitely, you know, the institution is required as, as the world bank, this is the very time that these institutions are needed. the moment we find ourselves in. okay, daniel, the same question to you will, i guess, does the, i'm it have the sufficient resources to deal with us. do you think that's cool? the i m f didn't exist today. you would have to invent it and that's, it has resources enough resources. because the countries which need financing are typically poor countries whose financial needs are not that large compared to the resources of the industrialized countries and therefore of the i m s. and therefore, i think it's not a question of resources. it's a question of what the m s can do at this point. if in these countries,

the governments stay as corrupt as they have been in the past, because that is what brought these countries to the point at which they are right now. okay, we'll have to leave it there. thank you both so very much. that is daniel gross and brussels for us. and eli come thought you an earlier we spoke to make that decide. thank you very much for being on the program and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, l just sarah dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash i j inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is as a inside story from me, told mccrae and the entire team here and so half bye for now. i ah

and a british political party at war with itself. labor parting is a criminal conspiracy against its members. newly obtained documents reveal members silenced, suspended, and forced that. my go on. this is an unbelievable free speech. she was shot down an exclusive investigation. the labor files hot 3 on al jazeera stories of hope and inspiration. short documentary east from around the world. that celebrate courage and resilience in times of time with

out to select on now does it ill tell square is in the historic heart as tripling the 19th century architecture in a state of neglect, to law, taurus, whether foreign or liberties ex, get the author. if you have done nothing to preserve the historical monuments and bring life back to this place, triple is considered the 2nd most art to logically important city pro mom, look empire after the egyptian capital cairo month story mosque. it is among some of the structures remaining from that here on remnants from other years as well are found here. the tripoli. history is overshadowed by a turbulent recent past and a grim reality. ah.