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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  October 18, 2022 8:30am-9:01am AST

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good, mexico is only a 1st stop in the trophies tour of latin america. the next stops include brazil, uruguay origin, tina ecuador, and costa rica. the 2022 world cup trophy tour will for the 1st time include a visit to all $32.00 qualifying nations, giving more bands of the beautiful game. a chance to see this iconic trophy in person. ah. the world cup trophy tour will stop in a total of $51.00 countries and territories. finishing its run in doha, qatar just before the greatest tournament on earth kicks off on november 20th. when rented apple al jazeera mexico city shall ankin ortho, shahan, carrion to lacquer has won this year's vista just book a prize. i his darkly comic novel. the 7 boons of molly anita, has set during the height of a shall anchors civil war and tells the story of
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a murder photographer who investigates his own death from the afterlife. carina to lacquer says his writing reflects his country's gallows humor. ah, this is al serra, these are our top stories. at least 4 people have been killed and 16 entered and joined strikes in ukraine's capital. early morning attack on monday, sent people running for cover week after russia unleashes most widespread strikes against the country and months. the u. s, as it will hold russia accountable for war crimes are forces from across ne, so are taking part in the alliances annual nuclear exercises. the drills involve 14 countries from around 60 and around 60 aircraft. they'll be conducting training flights over belgium as well as the north sea and the u. k. these 13 people have been killed and dozens injured after a fight, a jack crashed into
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a building in the russian city of yeske. the russian defense ministry says the place on a training flight when its engine caught fire. australia has reversed its former governments recognition of west jerusalem as the capital of israel. for mister penny wong's, at the cities, status must be decided through peace talks between israelis and palestinians. person's prime minister has been accused of running scared after failing to address parliament days after replacing her finance minister. the chancellor jeremy hunt amounts to ross of you turns on last month, controversial many budget. so i've decided that the basic rate of income tax will remain 20 percent and it will do so indefinitely until economic circumstances allow for it to be cut. taken together with the decision not to cut corporation tax and restoring the top rate of income types, the measures i renounce today will raise around $32000000000.00 pounds every year. yes, mid term elections are less than a month away. and the candidates vying for one of the highest senate seats have
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taken part in a televised debate, public and j. d. vance, and democrat, tim ryan, and now neck and neck. in the poles. thousands of people have been protesting in the capital of haiti as the united nations discuss measures to address the di security crisis in the country. the u. s. is proposing to sent international troops after the 80 government asked for external military assistance last week. those are you headlines. the news continues hair on al jazeera. that's after counting the cost, say with us. o once city dwellers now posted to remove villages in morocco. algiers follows the personal journeys of 3 women teachers. their daily struggles with isolation and battles with physical hardship. sacrificing their family lives for the education of future
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generations. women in the wind on al jazeera. i lose hello, i'm hasn't speaker. this is counting the cost on edge. is it your weekly look at the world of business and economics? this week, it was seen as a flap in the face to president biden. opec plus is moved to cut oil output has grown angry criticism from washington. why did they do it? and how will us respond also this week, the world's financial firefighter, a few people like it's harsh lending conditions. we look at the role of the international monetary fund in his gloomy economic times is losing relevance. and while some african countries aren't ready yet to let go of fossil fuels,
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of those are turning to green energy sources to lower the carbon footprint ah, of a month president joe biden has lobbied saudi arabia and the other oil producing countries to help ease energy prices by pumping more oil into the market, but in a major policy reversal opec plus that includes russia, decided to cut output by $2000000.00 barrels a day in november. the u. s. is calling the decision short sighted. it is accused the kingdom of siding with moscow, which relies heavily on its oil revenues. opec plus says the move is purely economic, a response to uncertainty about future demand for oil. our priority now is stabilizing market. now we could be accused of wanting to influence market in negative way. everybody's broke, if we'll and others,
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we'll see how we conduct our sales in the months to come. a biden has vowed what he calls, consequences, full saudi arabia over the opec plus decision to slash output. it is the biggest reduction by the group since the height of the pandemic in 2020. but actual costs are likely to be smaller because many opec members aren't meeting their targets. the price of a ballad brent crude jumped to more than $93.00 after the announcement last week. it was on a downward trend in late september from highs of about $130.00. the u. s. has pledged to release $10000000.00 barrels from its stockpiles next month in an attempt to keep oil prices down. and the u. s. is considering steps to reduce opec's control over energy prices. include the no oil producing and exporting cartels or no peck built. it's meant to protect american consumers and businesses from engineered oil spikes. it's been debated for more than 2 decades in
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a senate judiciary committee passed it in may, but in the past the full senate and house and signed by the president to become a law. the bill would enable us to revoke the sovereign immunity, which protects ok, plus members and their national oil companies from losses. the u. s. attorney general would have the option to sue the oil cartel members in federal court. so to discuss all of this, i'm joined now from new york by antwan, how former chief oil analyst at the international energy agency. and currently an adjunct senior research scholar at the center on global energy policy at columbia university. and the co founder and chief or analyst at k ross. good to have you with us. so i'm opec, and now the o. thank plus alliance has never cut out. put this much in this quickly. why now it might seem surprising. it's a much more proactive cast than we've seen in the past. if you look at her
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satellites or imaging over inventories today, there's no santa overhang. there's no all the supply to the stuff. have been fairly flat for the last few weeks. but i think this concerns that they are going to increase. there's concerns about the new me we session. and the fact that starts up in flood might be seen as a warning signal because normally stocks globally tend to decrease in september in october. so it's, it's somewhat surprising it's, it's unusual for opec to catch supply in the, in the face of a recession. but typically the language is more that the opec is willing to take a price cut to have the economy. but it's understanding, and i think most people who are watching balance is supplied in my balances. we're expecting a fairly significant cut, obviously is taken the u. s. government by supplies. opec past says it's trying to get ahead of the curve. what are there any indications of
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a slumping demand and how soon could that happen? there's clearly severe impacts from the, the rally in that for gas prices and the, and the constraints on the gas market. if you look at industrial, the activity in europe, in germany and other countries in europe, there's been a very sharp decline in activity on demand. cadence for most student is on the consumer side. on the other side, specifically, the impact is less flagrant. right now. there's been a bit of a lack of a boost in demand in the summer. for example, the summer driving demand in the us in europe with a weak airline demand is due to very, very, or diminished. and they all concerns looking forward. so they are, they are sudden the expectations of a decline. it's a hasn't really materialized in the oil market as much as in other aspects of the energy spectrum. but there's concerns about future contraction. that's for sure. but the cuts are likely to be less than $2000000.00 barrels,
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because many countries are meeting output targets. so how effective is this rock reduction going to be on prices then? yeah, nobody expects $2000000.00 obviously in it is to me on paper. in fact, case is going to be less than $1000000.00 expectations very from $700.00 to $8900000.00. but that, that's going to be less than the this. the shock at the shock value, the sticker shock of the $2000000.00 is not going to be mass in practice. and if you look at the market reaction, the price does not increase so much. so i think the market participants, i've had a comfortable that the, the, the market can take these kind of get an, a u. s. is accusing saudi arabia siding with russia in, in making this decision. so how much would these cuts then benefit moscow? well, any case this is beneficial to moscow because there's a reduction in export. so even if there's no reduction in exports to price increase, we obviously have moscow maintain export revenue and finance. it's worth it. so
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there's obviously concerns there. and the russian economy has got the resilience 2 sections that hasn't been cut ups in the, in the, in the russian economy. but the size of fiction, of tension. and i think over time mosque was clearly going to feel the impact of sanctions and of the impact of it's worth it on his own budget. and the usaa saying that it could release oil from its national stockpiles as appropriate. it says, but how much could they release and how much of a difference is that going to make them prices where the u. s. s. p r is to very large, is the last us in the world, and there's a significant for drawing capacity in the u. s, the u. s. has been drawing on it's on this reserves and has accelerated the pace of these talking at the s p r since march. i think that was a great decision mister the count, the mark. ready when the market was concerned about an abrupt stop in the,
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in the question supply with that actually was, did not happen. and probably the u. s. should that stuff have been more as i in adjusting in the pace of the stocking? of course, from the earlier on. now the s p r kathy is completely offset by dia, the opec production cut. the s p r releases is completely offset the us obviously it has the option of increasing the pace of the stocking. i don't think it would be necessarily a wise idea. it would deplete the reserve and it would not really serve any purpose . not bring any benefit right now, but it's an option if the market gets too tight and no peck bill, the so called no peck bill that's being considered in the, in the us right now. could that, could that become a law and i mean what, what difference will it make? i mean, is, is it going to affect opec's dominance on the, the energy prices isn't. there's clearly an, a pool in washington, a sense of her to sense of pain or an eagerness to examine what kind of policy
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tools but kind of measures could be taken to express displeasure. and no back is, it is one of those tumors it's, it's a bit ironic because it just 2 years ago, everybody in the us was begging opec to cat supply from the president to, to producers, to local authorities. and was willing to participate in the supply in the supply cuts at the height. the could be panoramic. so i don't think based on this recent experience that the, that the legislation has any legs, but it certainly can be a nuisance, can be a distraction. and can, can, can be an irritant in the relationship, and there's a strong likelihood that this is going to be a sustained interest in reviving this piece of a decision. what other options does the us have, if any, at this point to, to get an oil prices down where to get all places done? if there's a need to really bring them down in a big way that could suddenly increase the s p all the good. there's no the
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industry could pick up the pace of fucking in the shade patch and if there could be an effort to, to bring supply from areas that have been restricted, like in his weather like you on. and i think it's no coincidence that we have some interest in trying to lift the, the foot from the pedal. our business wouldn't sections of the money and negotiations are continuing. and there are some strong interests on the market sense in bringing them to fruition. all right, anton house. good to get your analysis. thank you. i mean by like i, the international monetary fund is often called the lender of last resort. countries look to it for financial assistance in times of crisis. it was created more than 7 decades ago to promote economic stability after world war 2. but the world has changed a great deal since then. and now the pandemic as well as the war in ukraine,
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are threatening economic conditions around the world. it's leading many people to question the i m. s. relevance in 2022. the critics have taken aim at its demand for reforms and austerity in exchange for bailout loans. for many countries at risk of defaulting on that, that are still seeking financial help from the i m. f. pakistan has political turmoil and devastating floods to deal with. they just secured a loan of around $1000000000.00. sri lanka is close to finalizing almost $3000000000.00, while egypt is also in talks for a new loan, a lending programs are expected to increase as the i m. f paint's, a gloomy outlook for the global economy. the institution has cut global growth for cost the next year to 2.7 percent, and warns the worst is yet to come. in many blames rushes invasion of ukraine. the cost of living crisis and china's economic slowdown for the downturn. the i'm f
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predicts, the world's output will shrink by 4 trillion dollars between now and 2026. that is almost the size of the german economy. more than 100 nations requested bailouts from the i m f. more than 2 years ago. at the height of the cobra. 1900 health crisis. and the institution has around a $140000000000.00 in outstanding loans to $44.00 member countries. argentina is the biggest data with a total outstanding amount of more than $42000000000.00, followed by egypt that around $17000000000.00. the m. s. s. 60 percent of low income countries are now at high risk already in debt distress, and a growing number of middle income countries of suffering from high debt service birds. the u. n. estimates 54 countries. that's more than half the world's poorest people need immediate debt relief to avoid extreme poverty. for washington,
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d. c. i'm joined now by scott morris, senior fellow at the center for global development. good to have you were to scott . so 1st off, we, lank pakistan are among the did the countries facing debt distress. what is that? what has led us to this point with them? well, i think you have a very difficult combination of factors for both countries and some of them, hong grown in terms of their own policy decisions, frankly, entry long because case really, you know, really deep problems in governance to some degree with pakistan as well. but frankly, also global forces that are in play right now that are exacerbating the situations, rising interest rates, the ongoing effects of the pandemic. so it really is this confluence of forces that are, that are hitting both countries very hard and all the i m f loans helping countries
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like this or do they make things worse? well, you know, to some degree, i think the mouth gets a bad reputation in part because it does show up at times when countries are pe seem there were, there were situations in terms of crisis. but on the other hand, i think there is a long history of the, i'm not always getting things right in terms of the judgment they make. and i think you know this, this can happen in a couple of different ways. one, i think there have been periods where the i am has in those conditions on their loans that are more harms and help too much austerity in some situations. too much reach into the decision making of the government across a wide range of issues. there are also times, frankly, when the i enough is too easy and here i think that applies more to the position of other creditors to these countries where the i and that allows the creditors
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you know, too much position in the bargaining. because oftentimes with these countries need, certainly if we look at re longer right now, their creditors are going to have to take care cuts. they're gonna have to write down some of those that. and the in the plays an important role in helping navigate that situation. making sure that everyone is bearing a fair share of the cost of working out of these crises. so do you see the i am, if adapting it's approach at all to the current circumstances. so we look back to 2020 and the the panoramic as a trigger for a lot of economic problems in the world. you know, the, i really did step up, they, they, they opened their, their lending windows. they did it quickly with low conditionality. so we saw a lot of money flowing out of the institution,
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but frankly, since that time we, we haven't seen that kind of stands from the foreign countries have, has not been been borrowing. so it remains be seen. i think we, you know, these 2 countries that you named are probably on the front angel frontage of what will be a growing number of countries and crisis. and it really will be important to see how the responds will they provide quicker access to their money? will they set aside traditional conditionality to ensure that countries have the financing that they need to, to, to whether this crisis now there are a number of countries in the world that are facing some level of debt distress. do you think the i m f is doing enough to help the global south? i think to their credit, you know, they're showing signs of preparing. so they're creating new,
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new lending windows. some focused on food security. distress right now, which is is, is certainly laudable. they've created a new resilience trust fund, so all these trust funds they've been spending time setting up, but we haven't seen them perform yet. and these are, they are particularly targeted low income countries because if they are tapped, they offer much easier terms. financial terms, very low interest rates, but we just don't, we haven't seen yet large volumes of fund flowing out of these facilities. and i, i think the real test will be one of scale. as you say, we are likely to see significantly a larger number of countries, many of them among the poorest countries in the world. and you know, for, for a large number of these countries, you know, this truly is
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a shock that is not of their own making. whether it's the food security issues associated with the war and ukraine. ongoing issues of the pandemic. none of these things were problems created by these countries or their governments. so, you know, the issue around conditionality is, is, is a key one here. this is not, not necessarily the moment to try to leverage policy reforms in these governance when they're trying to deal with prices that were not of their own making. and of course, each country has its own monetary policies dealing with its own set of challenges. but do you think the i m f is doing enough to promote the stability of the, of the international monetary system as a whole? yeah, well, this is a key question right now. and this has more to do with the relationship with its rich country members. so obviously there's a lot of attention on the federal reserve here in the u. s. and their actions,
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which are guided by domestic requirements and domestic law. but clearly there are ramifications and significant negative ramifications for other countries in the world, in terms of the interest rate of facts. so what we would like to see, what we want to see is, is coordination between the u. s, between european governments and the lab on ways in which they can deal with this collateral damage for other countries. and we've seen that in house prices on the federal reserve has opened swap lines with other central banks in the world. i think, you know, that is in coordination with the, the, i and that, and i'm wondering china today we, we've seen them at least put on the offer of these kinds of swap line from their central bank. it's not clear yet if the terms of that offer are
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flexible enough for countries to make use of them, sri lanka was one case where there was a swap line open with china. but the, you know, the presidential standards of that arrangement were too, too rigid in a way that trail longer could not make use of it before the default. scott morris could to get your perspective. thank you. my pleasure. now the race to green energy is going to fast for some oil which developing nations, nigeria is africa's biggest exporter of oil, and it isn't ready to let go. it's huge reserves that fuel its consumption and economic growth for more than half a century. just as many dream reports from port hawk or this off shall rig pumps, oil and gas off the coast of nigeria. for more than 60 years, petroleum has been the pillar of its economy. and for men, here, life without oil, is simply unimaginable. we know for sure that even by 2050 i wasn't where it was
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till account for my 58 percent of energy and production into will not be that wasn't well, it's not going to go away, but to going to become budget too much, martina, enough? well, and that is really our focus. petroleum contributes more than half of nigeria budget, and more than 90 percent of its forwarding, it's jennings, expert, se ditching, it could devastate the economy. the world bank says now years dependence on oil is greater than that of many other major producers. more than half of africa, 1300000000 people have no access to power. here in our area, the figure is more than 45 percent of vicious. yes. and they want to increase access to electricity, especially by holding the countries oil and gas was also fitting coverage growth. industry experts say africa's oil will still find the ready market on the continent, even if the rest of the world shut its doors. africa needs energy. we are not selling energy outside because we don't need it. we are selling energy also because
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we, i miss, we have misplaced priorities. nigeria wants to be seen as playing it to fought in reducing global warming. 2 years ago, the government declared print to $20.00 to 2030 as a decayed of gas, a 10 year period to shift focus from oil, and more to natural gas as a cleaner transition fuel. but that doesn't mean the country will abandon it's 37000000000 barrels of crude oil reserves. altogether a kenya is making major changes to its energy supply system. the country is now harvesting geothermal, steam consultants on the projects they will cut greenhouse gas emissions, but also lift millions of people out of poverty. caffeine, soil reports from the all cardiac power plants in neva last of immense hits dot dozens of vents in the great rift valley. the steam is so hot,
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you can boil an agony to appreciate the power of this heat. there is no, we're better to look. the northwest of kenya's capital nairobi. this energy is coming from the off and it's essentially limitless on. um, one is exploring for new geothermal drill sites for the countries, electricity generating company. it is producing $962.00 megawatts of power, but could do a great deal more fantasy harnessing geothermal power for electricity is simple. they seem from the ground on a channel, steam line and the steam lines, and that's enough off line. and that's seen, of course, the 2 separate federal web liquid face i can injected back into the ground. and this team dr. theme is picking up offline and ron, so stop by and generate electric kenya,
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derives most of its energy from clean forces. it has some of the world's largest, your thumb, or wells, and plants. it is also the largest producer of wind and geothermal energy on the continent. i think africa, dan, thout now as a viable option to bring about the change so that africa will make the, the necessary contribution to green me the environment. and that's why you find major economies having an interesting, in chaos specifically and in africa basically to her is the fact of what is happening elsewhere in francis korea. he was recently connected to the greed through a rural electrification program, sat on them, one guy, now we have light. we also have fewer cases of test at night. but there are still people in darkness. we need to light up the entire village. in most parts,
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people are now enjoying the benefits of renewable energy. many kenyans are connected to the national green, while others have installed us system. the government says it wants to ensure every home has electricity in the next 10 years. the idea is, and its schools is not just to live top the country, but the whole continent. and that is our show for this week run by you can get in touch with us by treating me as has a seeker and to use the hash tag a see to see when you do or drop some email, counting the cost at as just the dot net is our address, as well for you online at as in a dot. com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to a page which has individual report links, an entire episode for you to catch up on that is it for this edition of counting? the cost hasn't speak from the whole team. yes, thanks for joining us. the news on it is next. the
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