we're probably going to jordan the go with i wonder what throw on me. so i thought maybe will come people that god, you know, the order you go to the believe a bang, look we through the york committee much in a little more made up, but mean or could, i mean when you believe you have a daughter, the lead by level of a pretty much when it brought a double door said you in trouble number was your name, don't i'm not sure. and again, that's a job, a speck of those. oh yeah, i didn't publish it at all. ma'am sam to several showing your feel w quote, a quick follow him. but shaw though. she says you're jordan no, my god he sure enough i don't know a deal so don't other meds at god true it. gail no bother. they get also lost his song, kimmy allotted me for their law and going on. she'll be with jean luc posturing or

the gosh, i've got a quote of course on the, the special olympic kids she saw no t shared with. so in a cobra way, she's been out of my teen or a little bit more, but she had on my guardian a lot of other quality. i've done it. so in a few for c, c, a squadron of online kit on these id fees you before they decided yet, there are a lot of your squad without any of you in town. how about sure. sure. and you know what he really that youngsters. yeah. what if you other we're starting this fall down below and i'm bella by those 70 then? yeah, she viewed in what was she will be with you more about the day? my god, he really want to ask, what are the products that seem finally decided ah,

ah, this is al jazeera and these are the top stories, this our democrats and republicans and making last ditch appeals on the final dive . campaigning before tuesdays crucial midterm elections. the vote could up in jo biden's presidency with poll suggesting a republican come back. the you in secretary general has warned. the world is losing the fight against climate change. addressing the comp $27.00 summit and shampoo shack antonio terrorist describes climate change as the defining issue of our age. more than $25.00 countries have agreed to hold each other accountable on a pledge to in deforestation by 2030 announcing billions of dollars to finance the if it's the group includes japan, pakistan and the u. k. that does not include brazil all the democratic republic of congo by home to vast areas of under threat forests. and there is a stand off between a tell you in officials and sicily and rescue ship carrying hundreds of migrants

and refugees. people own a vessel operated by doctors without borders waiting for permission to disinvite can cataneo ethiopian government and rebels from its northern to gray region have established a telephone hotline. the move was announced by african union mediators. as a 2nd round of talks get underway in kenya, those are the headlines. the news continues here on al jazeera, after inside story. ah ah, the battle for the u. s. congress, from democracy to the economy, to abortion. the states in this year's midterm elections are extremely high,

but in a divided countries, what really shapes voters choices? and what will it mean for jo biden's presidency? this is an hide storm. ah. hello and welcome to the special inside a story from washington dc. i'm paddy gall. hang on tuesday, american voters will decide who will represent them in congress. at the moment, democrats hold a very slim majority in the house and the senate, but that could change after these midterm elections. the united states is greatly divided on issues from immigration to abortion, the economy and democracy itself. there are 435 seats up for grabs in the house of representatives, while 35 of the 100 seats in the u. s. senate are up for reelection,

and this vote will shape how jo biden's final 2 years of his 1st term will turn out . we'll bring our guests in a moment 1st. this report from alan fisher in washington. the big guns wrote in the final days before the mid term elections, the democrats won't need to generate a big ta night. the selection is not a referendum, it's a choice. it's a choice between true vastly different vision for america. traditionally, the party in the white house can expect to get hammered, and the polls are pointing that way. you're biden's law approval rating. doesn't help voters when they can't vote at the top of the ticket. use elections as a referendum on the party in power. and so most of the time, the president's party loses seats in the house during the term election, losing the heis could spell real problems, but you'll biden's agenda and legacy. since he took power, inflation has spike prices for food and gas have risen successes in cutting drug

prices addressed in climate change. rebuilding infrastructure is not energizing voter. republicans want to end the january 6 hearings, investigate biden, for as yet unspecified reasons. reform hope payments are made to us seniors and some are pushing for a restrictive national abortion law. biden can veto some of that, but not all an energized republican party could shrink his presidency as with any president that exists in a divided government, it will be much more difficult for him to get anything done. and as we know in an air of polarization, what we've experienced in the last 30 plus years is that presidents and divided government have a very difficult time passing their agenda. many republicans running this time run, believe the last presidential election was stolen and they won't commit to accept the result if they lose. that leaves many expense. what is that this could undermine the whole election process if there is any sort of massive kind of error. there are challenges there are recounts their audits,

so to not concede to refuse to accept the results. as long as all of those processes have been gone through is just further roads trust in the system. a pin of the economy remains, water's top, concern hammering here. leave by not just unable to push the agenda. things are looking good, but might damage him so badly. the idea of running again in 2024 could be ended right here. i want to sure i'll just either washington. let's now bring in our gas . joining me here in washington, dc, me m b carter. she's an associate professor at the school of public policy at the university of maryland. brett brett brewing is a former director of global engagement in the white house under president brock, obama and del delta franco. he has republican strategists and assistant administrator of the united states agency for international development under

president george bush, a warm welcome to the program. i was so excited when they told me that they want to be part of this conversation because i've been an age myself. i've been covering american politics since the early ninety's in iowa. i have no clue how this election is going to go. and i've never said that before in all of my years covering elections. so just for audience a little perspective, the president's party almost always loses seats in the house, the senate in the mid term elections. the cook political report said since the civil war, the president's party lost the house. $37.00 out of $39.00 times 92 percent. so when you go to each one of you predict for me the house of representatives, what's going to happen? i think we're public is going to take back the house. i think that's without question. at this point, while the margin of victory has adjusted a little bit, i think it went from being like a 96 percent certainty to maybe like a 94 percent certainty. it's still pretty clear that republicans are going to take

the house. so bread a day going to take the house and it is going to be big. well that's the real question is how much are they gonna wind buy? and if they do exceed expectations and, and again, yes everybody and believes that they will win. but if we're talking double digits in terms of seats that they have, that is going to give them something of a mandate and they're going to use that mandate to try. as you mentioned, mounting investigations, mounting at every turn roadblocks for biden, in his last 2 years. okay. adolfo, but he think we're, we're close enough now to the election that we can make a solid prediction. the house will go definitely for the republican party. they just need 5 seats to take the majority. but you're absolutely right. the question is the size of the majority, not only because of a mandate, but a working majority for the new incoming speaker, who will likely be kevin mccarthy of california. there are factions and the

republican party, just as are, are in the democratic party, where the hell is under casa. cortez in the progressive had to name or his act filling for a republic. he doesn't bring her, but you need to have a, a working majority of at least 20 to 30 seats for kevin mccarthy to control that caucus. meaning the republican, the new republican majority. so i think the key that night will be, if it's under 20, it will still be a republican controlled congress, but will be very different. difficult to pass legislation among even republicans, if it's closer to the 40 than he had, he can lose 101520 members consistently and still be able to pass legislation. now let's move on to the senate because this is fascinating to me. these races are insanely tight, like every paul is within the margin of error. now we can get into whether pulling actually works any more in the po, shame, area of politics. but what do you think senate? well, couple of things. i think you're absolutely right about this is the question about

polling that's i think that would be the most interesting thing. the next day is over, the polls are accurate because there's a lot of controversy where people answer polls if they're telling that the pollsters what they really believe. so up. but to answer your questions as i am pulling world's going to be on the ballot and in many ways, ah, the answer your question is, i think it all points to republican up holds really 4 key race. it's everyone's looking at pennsylvania, georgia of nevada, arizona. republicans need to win 2 of those really to have a majority of 51. so just as distinctly speaking, it probably will be possible to do that, particularly nevada and georgia. look to be the most promising for republicans. we'll get to george in a minute, but that's a whole other wide go. and i george a story brentley that a little bit more helpful. and for sam not, no. i think the republicans are likely to take the senate probably around $52.00

seats and extra margin in the senate will give mitch mcconnell more room. and one thing that adolfo didn't mention, which i think for our international viewers will be important to take account of is that if kevin mccarthy and mitch mcconnell have a little bit of wiggle room, that actually can be beneficial for our politics. because it means that they can ignore the freedom caucus in the house, which a sits on the outer extremity of even republican maga, politics. and that could leave some room for compromise. and so it is important in some ways, if the republicans get a wider majority, they don't have to hew to that extreme edge of the party quite as often. are you unicorn a democrat who thinks it's actually better for the country that if the republicans when big well, it is a peculiar position. it really is. but at the same time, it's true because just like in our party where you know the progressive caucus can

push nancy pelosi, joe biden out in a half over the last couple of years in the next 2 years. if we have a party that is driven by the marjorie taylor greens by some of the gym, jordan's and others who really are trying to pick fights or trying to push the republicans even farther out into the, the outer rings of the universe of political philosophy. they're not dangerous of normalcy, of normalcy. and so i think some ways in a strange logic and calculation as a democrat who's looking out at the polls right now and saying, what's the silver lining? that's the silver lining in a big republican wave. bnb. look, i can't disagree my colleagues, right? i mean, i think the republicans had the winded their backs right now. i don't know that there is enough of a compelling case when you think about was pushing people to show up on tuesday or early voting. right. and we know that inflation, right,

we know that is pushing people and they are really deeply unhappy. people feel uncertain, people feel insecure and we know that usually plays well for public policy. quite frankly, we're going to get into that in a minute. but i think the bigger question for, especially for an international audience is what president biden's insane prime time speech, democracy, the fate of democracy is on the line at this election. is it and how so? we'll look. i mean, i think we're young democracy. i think people think about our democracy is beginning when our country began, but it really didn't begin until 1955. so we are very young. you were to play 1950 . yes. up. sorry. so the voting rights act of 1965 really insured for the 1st time that most racial, ethnic minorities in the us could participate in the electoral process. in some ways you can view it as kicking out the sort of old authoritarians in the south who were really blocking a black access to the ballot, but also access for indigenous people. latino people,

asian people. so you don't really get full democracy in the united states until 1965 and after. so we're a young democracy. and i think when we look at some of the races in some of these key states, whether we're talking about george or if some of these other states were also talking about places that have been more restrictive in starting to sort of call, if you will, the electorate, and it's not just through, you know, access to the ballot is also through gerrymandering, like we've seen in tennessee and other places where we have candidates among, or parties essentially picking their voters. and that's happening on both democratic and republican fads. it's not all or sort of one sided thing. so the problem, i think when we talk about this electoral process, we're talking about it. um, from this perspective of this election means that if people don't accept the outcome, will we see more. busy january 6 like behavior will we see more whittling away at public trust in the integrity of our lessons?

and i think that is true. now will it be more violent like january 6, maybe not. but i think the sort of subtle calling into account our institutions and saying, well, these congressional investigations aren't really working right there. naturally, non partisan. it's, you know, secretaries of state who are also on the ballot and some of the same places where we saw lots of alleged denial control banks. we won't confirm right. these elect or outcomes. that's a really in city is kind of chipping away at democracy. it's an experiment, it's a verb in, if we don't protected in at the people that were electing to protect it, say, this is not working because my side didn't, when it's cheating, then i think we are in trouble for those who might not know, gerrymandering is i think was a guy named jerry who drew a district the looks like a salomon adamant. and so basically these as they use the census data. so a lot of these congressional districts, they're drawn and both parties do this. they figure out where their voters are and the district doesn't look like a circle. it looks any. i mean,

you can find any number of bizarre shape. so that's plain apart. but brett, are you worry? you know, when i'm worried most for is november 2024 because you likely are going to have republican control of congress, which wasn't the case in 2020. and so now you have trump returning to a presidential election with republicans firmly and control in congress as well as in a number of key states. that is a dangerous moment. and that's a moment which stands out to me as one where democracy truly will be hanging in the balance. i think the democrats have an opportunity in this election to show what democratic behavior looks like, except the result and don't call into question some of the institutions don't call into question some of the practices and start focusing now on our message for 2024

because a, another opportunity for democrats lies in the fact that some of those candidates, like herschel walker in georgia, like kerry lake in arizona, may end up defining republicans and certainly with the help of donald trump. they can. and i think the blockages that we're likely to see here in washington may lead to trouble for the republicans in 2024. so that for me is the key moment, but is folks overseas may not know our presidential election start on wednesday. and that is going to be a long road to the white house and it's going to be a difficult campaign, really functional system. i see you chantel that the bid over there that, you know, it's under respect to my friend. it's amazing how they fear the american people the president has said, i think in a very diverse, if inflammatory way democracies on the ballot. now the ballot is democracy. i think

he has it wrong. the ballot is democracy. so the will the american people, their decision is not question. ah, if they, when it's amazing that the questioning comes when they lose, i suppose, stacy abrams who never accepted her defeat. who said she still the governor of georgia. now let's now it will please. now she's a here i should, i had baseball that well that the point is this. they another link is inside baseball. she didn't leave a, the election was stolen. she said she won the election. she never accepted the election and she never conceded that so those were her words. you hillary clinton, the former nominee instead of the election. what stolen from her now when it comes to the liberal press and the liberals on the left, this is just past the bread. but when the american people are choosing their elected representatives and what appears to be including and ga, record, turn out that we're seeing and level enthusiasm in both parties. if the outcome is

not what they want, there is a threat to democracy. by the way, these many of these tromp candidates who will, when we're being financed by the democratic, how are going to get any better that i had was amazing that their threat for democracy is very short lived. well, get into that. but as also i have to ask you, i saw that you said the, what happened on january 6? was the mob not in insur, correct? the definition of insurrection is a violent uprising against an authority or government. and i have to at full disclosure, i was there that day i was covering it. i was surrounded by an angry, terrifying mob. and i've done some really scary stories in my life. never ever been that scared of an assignment in my life. how. how was it not an insurrection when their goal was to stop the election? well, a mom of people can do anything they want in a nest direction, suggest an organized effort. there is absolutely i with all due respect, i have

a different opinion, no evidence. but that has been the case at all. and in fact, there was a justice department which i trust more investigation prior to this par listen. committee that is and in the congress as deciding that to looking into this matter, there's a better feller inside. they were not appointed by the 1st time of the history and had states that were not appointed by the speaker. and there are 2. 02 republicans that are really functionally democrats, it's, it's a joke and everybody knows it to be. but let me ask your answer your question. was it a concerted 93 day attack on the court house in portland, oregon, and it's direction due to up there. i'm testing fully for appropriate parolee violence. i heard kind of turn over and while they were trying to and, and there were trying to undo the judicial branch of the united states taking over parts of seattle burning down things. okay. the, the, the weight, the, the attorney general of massachusetts saying we have to burn down the system. that is not at a thought of an assault on democracy. i'm going to move on from here,

but you know what didn't happen in portland. they didn't try to hang the vice president. they didn't injure a 140 and not justifying a mob patty in any sense of the world. think of our and any but what we're moving on on. so i am concerned about where this country is right now when it comes to political violence. maybe our viewers don't know this, but in arizona because of the big lie. we've just had people show up with masks and guns and steak out polling places. the judges now put some restrictions on them. but let's think about paul pelosi. he is an 82 year old man who was in the middle of the night. someone broke into his house, someone who has a believes the election was stolen, believes conspiracy theories wanted to come after his wife, the speaker of the house, beat him in the head with a hammer. and some republicans are actually making light of this. now let's just listen to this. it is not impossible to protect our kids at school. they act like

it is nancy pelosi. well, she's got protection when she's in the superior house doesn't have a lot of protection. but listen, i, i want to stop for a minute and, and her listen speaker boys use husband or break him last night in their house and he was assaulted. there is no room for violence anywhere, but we're going to send her back to be with them in california. that's what we're going to go to. that's a we're going to go to. that was carry like the republican candidate for governor of arizona and the current governor of virginia young can. there's also been some really tweets, some interesting tweets, ted cruz or senator from texas. he retreated, someone questioning whether the attackers motivation now on social media. he is an election deniers. i mentioned conspiracy theorist. instead of saying he was a liberal, someone wrote that, you know, he was the, this guy was a liberal that it's possible to think that he was for republicans. and ted cruz retreated that same truth. congressmen claudie attorney, sent out over

a picture of a bunch of guys with hammers outside of a house and just wrote l o l. donald trump junior treated out a pair of underwear, which mr. pelosi was wearing because he was sleeping in his house at 2 in the morning and a hammer. any road? got my paul pelosi hollow in costume. ready? the don junior is beyond the pale. i mean, he's an 82 year old man who had surgery and was not the i see you for 6 days and has a very long recovery. not a politician just yet. how do we get here all that we've been sliding to this place for very long time. i mean, the polarization that we're seeing, i think, is probably more than we've seen. but we've been moving hears if the reagan years and has been a steady mart. and i think when we see a deterioration in political conversation, when we pick people, not because we think they have the best way for it, but because they can create a world of an us versus them that makes us feel comforted and safe. i think that's how we get here. and i think what's really disturbing about this conversation,

whether we're talking about election denial, where we're talking about whether it's the mob or insurrection, splitting those kinds of hairs. and not being able to call a thing a thing without saying what? well, the other guy did it too. that's not the point. so something wrong i think has edward no, it isn't actually laying that january 6. it have never happen. doesn't indict one of the other is just calling it what it is apparently and saying, but a protest is not the same thing as saying we want a halt, the counter the rotor and bring me nancy pelosi and bring me my pants erecting a gallows. that's not the same thing, and i think this is the dear deterioration of discourse that we're talking about is not that we can't disagree is not that even. we can't say, hey, our person was wrong. but if you're going to do every time, somebody says, hey, this is a bad idea, this is terrible and you would have, oh no, but the other guy from a bunch of this to, that's not okay running out of time. but i do want to point out, washington post has looked at the 569, g o p. candidates for house senate keach real estate races and 51 percent deny the

2020 election. there is a supreme court case that's going to come up that might give state legislatures full control over how legislations go. so if the election deniers are in charge of the elections, so let me ask you this and i need you to be very brief. what happens if trump's candidates, when let's go to brett, because we don't have much time. i think unfortunately, we are going to see further erosion both in terms of the voting process. you're going to see voting, the places where you can vote restricted, you going to see more places go away. but also i think we are going to lose what remains of some semblance of fact based policy. we're going to start making policy based on conspiracy theories. we're going to make policy based on the whims of a former president who's just trying to stay relevant. and i just want to add one

additional point. the democrats have to really go back and rework their message. because if they couldn't find a winning message after january 6, after the efforts by the supreme court in republicans to so radically restrict control over one's body. if they couldn't find a winning message after a successful effort to defend ukraine from a russian invasion. i don't know what they need in order to win on. we're only down to one minute. l dal phone. if trump's candidates lose this, trump isn't di. know, and i don't think they will lose. you had to remember the so called trump candidates. the people who didn't get the nomination, we're all asking for president trump's endorsement to president. trump just happen to pick one of them. so 87 percent of republicans support. president trump, that's just a fact. but, but republicans also like power. we have to stop the disco there. i know this is

such a fun discussion. i still have absolutely no idea what's going to happen on tuesday, but it's going to be consequential. i think we can say that. so thanks to all of our guest, neon b, carther, brett bruin, and l dal franco, and thank you for watching. you can see the program again. anytime by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter or handle as a date in at ha, inside story for me, particle haine and the whole team here in dc. and in doha, i for now. ah

and a canyon journalist as to you to press freedom and justice, i haven't seen a desperate situation or some one, but they cannot. you cannot afford to pain keenan, investigating government corruption and the national health care system. some of the transaction facing magically, a beam of money that is unexplained africa, uncensored, and publishable things that people don't want to publish. even if it doesn't mean that to be oscar. who's truth is it anyway on al jazeera, when the news breaks, it's not just personal property, but also infrastructure that now leaves fixing from power lines to water. me when people need to be heard. and the story told they would get punished and they spoke ukrainian. i'm afraid i won't be able to return home with exclusive interviews, an in depth report south african penguins,

one is in captivity. al jazeera has teens on the ground to bring you more award winning documentaries, and lives are really across the u. s. millions of americans rely on conservative talk radio shows for their news on the detainment. these are all real issues for real people. the listening post tunes in and asks is talk radio divided america. there is no room for counseling or for how democracy work is really just acknowledging differences that are already there. if anything, conservative talk radio created the republican party. talk to of a to park special, jesse, you know, we know what's happening in our region. we know how to get the plate that others and not as far as i said, i'm going on the way that you tell the story is what can make a difference. ah.