killed a 300 people last month and people have been rallying and tie one's capital type in a show of support for protesters in china. there were mass demonstrations, the several chinese cities last week. protesters have been demanding an end to strict pandemic rules. the governments east of zill covered policy following those demonstrations 3 chinese astronauts of touchdown on earth. after spending 6 months in space, the group landed in the gobi desert in china on sunday. they helped complete the construction of the chunk gong space station. 3 other astronauts arrived at the station on wednesday and the structure is part of china's plans to have a permanent human presence in space. ah, this is our 0. these are the top stories, the security unit test with enforcing strict dress codes and iran has stopped operations the decision to close the so called morality police follows months of

anti government protests and violet crackdowns on demonstrations. at least 2 people have died and an anti government protest in southeastern syria, demonstrators standard government building insider protesters are angry at the government because of economic hardship took here has reportedly targeted multiple military sites in northern syria. so it's a controlled by the largely kurdish sevien democratic forces operations in response to an explosion and is stumble last month for care blames the blast on kurdish fighters. former u. s. president donald trump says the 2020 election should be overturned and he should be reinstalled. as president trump's made similar statements before, but on sunday, he called for parts of the constitution to be thrown out if needed. i didn't know castro has more from washington d. c. we're pretty used to trump in his bombastic speech, and especially as of late as he's apparently embraced more of the extreme elements

of his supporters. but this is still the 1st time that a former u. s. president. i has unleashed their rage against the u. s. constitution, the very highest symbol one would argue for democracy in this country, south african prisoners as civil rama poses heading to the constitutional court where he'll challenger report, but found he may have violated his oath of office. and independent panel investigators, rama poser, naturally failed to report the 1st of millions of dollars from his game farm and the walk up front. so through to the quarter finals. libby poland, 31 next up. within the 1st synagogue, isn't the headlines coming up next? it's inside story, goodbye. ah,

western ations try to empty russia's war chest by imposing a price cap on its oil. but keith says it's too high and the kremlin 1st rugged it off. so we'll do anything to stop the conflict in ukraine. this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm debbie navigate. so after months of negotiations, western nations and their allies have agreed to cap the price of russian oil at $60.00 a barrel. g 7 countries, the u and australia. hope it will reduce moscow's ability to fund its war in ukraine. now the limit only applies to crew transported by c. so it means

participating countries will only be allowed to buy russian oil and petroleum product sold at or below the cap price. the kremlin has been accused a weapon, ising energy supplies, and the spokesman says, rush, i won't accept the measure. moscow has already been selling crude at a have a just have a discount. and ukraine's president wants the cap to be even lower at $30.00 a barrel. but he and his loves go assign his russia has already caused colossal losses to all countries of the world by deliberately to stabilize the energy market . and wealth cannot decide on to real energy disarmament. this is a weak position over them and it's only a matter of time for strong the tools will have to be used anyway. it's a pity that this time will be lost. so russia has more than 10 percent of the world, oil and natural gas stores making it a commodities power house. and within the 1st $100.00 days at the invasion of

ukraine, china became the biggest buyer of russian fossil fuels. that's according to the center for research on energy and clean air. the also says india's import jump, 23 percent. neither countries assigned up to the price comp. in the u, russian gas flows have fallen about 17 percent. germany, italy and the netherlands remain the blocks, the biggest buyers. ah, let's bring in our guest. joining us for moscow survey markov was the director of moscow's institute of political studies, and a former spokesman for president vladimir putin in berlin. will arrest brook, nor a professor political fine. stanford university in berlin. joining us from tuscan to chris, we for whose the chief executive officer of macro advisory, that's a consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. welcome to you all. thanks for your time, chris refer. so what impact will this price cap actually have on russia? will the price cover its own will have only emerge the impact except to date the,

the budget which has just been passed, assumes, and every total price is 70 dollars next year. dropping down to 60 in 2 years time, the big question is, what will happen to volumes? because as of tomorrow, as of monday, of course, of course, the band and importing oil from russia anyway, i won't be watching any seaborne crude from tomorrow. from next february, the fan will extend to the much more important the bigger volume of products. so the big question for rushes, how much of that volume it would be able to shift to other markets, to china, india, turkey and other asian markets. and will they abide by the cap or will they continue to the current formula? which is essentially about 5 percent discount to whatever the brand price is at the time. so the cap on its own isn't going to have much impact. it depends on the volumes. ok, got it. so good mark of over in moscow, the russian foreign minister is quoted as saying we don't care what the price capital b will negotiate with

a partners directly behind the scenes. but that statement is clearly for public consumption behind the scenes. what do you think is going on in the kremlin right now? it's clear as that was some country as well as platforms that are going, but the war again will use different limitation for our action groups and different price kept close. rational oil is one of those or make money is also will be developed by some concepts or are actually pretty much prepared for such kind of economy. that's as i make, i use and of course rational. we will some money by same time, russia who may be rational. so we'll get some progress because snicker is implementation. probably

a general price of oil and gas as well will be increase on the global market. we are, we're saying survey. chris was just saying a moment ago that we'll have to wait to see what impact this, the cap as well as the new band coming into effect. we'll have one volumes. do you think that the volume out of russia will be impacted and could that then worry the kremlin? it's absolutely clear that a rational will have no any relationship with, nor any country reach or z price graph. and this mutation of price for us and this north market will take over the pressure. megan is just forget about it. or if you some countries want to join this new pennies, there will be north a well, to buy russian oil from russia will buy out of the room. another comes about from russia. know, you know, because the russian, you know,

minute it is because regard this as politically present and a violation of all that market principles. ok, let's bring in or look from berlin. so historically, of course, of course, germany has, has the largest has been rather the largest you importer of russian gas. and when this issue, if a price cap was floated earlier in the year, germany was initially skeptical. a main concern we understand is that limiting the price for the russian gas would might trigger retaliation by moscow in terms of a full cut off for the you. let's talk about how much wrangling there was. first of all, amongst you countries themselves to get to agree to this and what is the point of view out of berlin now that this has been implemented? well, berlin was divided because we have a coalition that consists of different parties with different political priorities

. there is, on the one hand, the green party that announced long before the war in ukraine started, that we have to transform the germany economy into forsythe free economy. and the war in ukraine is speeding up the process of transformation. so they basically like the long term implications of this. then we have a liberal party that is very much into market economy mechanisms and they don't like any form of manipulation of market prices. and given that we live in a shrinking world in which everything is interconnected, it's extremely delicate to have such a massive effect on an important commodity like oil. not only for the european union member states, but also for the globe is south. that is, most of them not rich enough to buffer a consequences, like rising prices because of such an intervention. and then there is

a question of solidarity among the european union member states. because not everyone is in the same way, dependent on imports and some even benefit from sanctions, like the almost futile systems in cyprus and in greece, in which ship owners could benefit from the new situation. and they now have to pay their dues, and kits will be get on board. right. so recording, i think this move is actually aimed because a lot of the g 7 countries have mostly decided to stop their own imports of rush and crude. well, it is a strong signal, politically that the west stands united and that was an important lesson learned after crimea in which the west appeared divided and not willing to take action and only react on board. russia is doing that was definitely part of the

calculation to invade ukraine, that the west will stay divided and con, act. collectively. this is still another strong signal that the west will continue to act. and it remains to be seen if it leads to something, but the political signal is definitely important a chris way for so all work is saying that there is a political signal that's being sent. but what do you expect the, the russian reaction to be, if any well, we're already seeing the reaction because as a say, the more important factor is the band and crude, which starts monday and then followed by the product span in february. so russia has been preparing for some time and actually argue he has been preparing since sanctions 1st starts in 2014. in 2014. russia was not sending any oil at all to asia. now, china is russia's biggest oil importer. there is the major you saw barry and pipeline which takes $1200000.00 barrels of russian oil per day,

directly in china being built in the last few years. and in this year, thus few months, we've seen russia really strong efforts to to, to build a, i guess, tanker based infrastructure to take more oil to, to asia. so there has been kind of a lot of preparation been put in place, but as a say, the big question is whether or not china india, turkey, the biggest buyers of russian crude. at this point, whether or not they will be whether or not they will adopt the, the price caps are, will ignore it. and if they ignore it, then you know, the impact on russia will be relatively modest. but there's another factor as well . of course, bear in mind that russia will not be able to shift all of the oil that it's been selling to europe, particularly when the product and $0.06. it will lose about a 1000000 and a half barrels of oil per day to simply will not have the ships or to pipelines to

sell to anybody else that will be lost production next year. and so on the one hand, russia will definitely lose volumes because of these bands, regardless of the price, and that would be a hit on revenue compared to this year. secondly, it really depends on opec's reaction because a 1000000 and a half barrels of russian or will be taken out of the global supply. of course, we have way to see what demand is like the view. it depends on china and corporate situation. but let's say that the demand side holds up. then the question is whether opec will replace that last russian oil or not. if it doesn't, and the price of branch will go up towards $100.00. and russia will get $75.00 per barrel by selling to asia. well above the current price of $60.00, which will not sell to us. so again, as i said, and just on the issue, chris, off china, india, and turkey and part of this plot, or actually

a large part of this plan stops insurance and shipping companies from handling rushing crude. unless that shipment has been sold at or below the price that has been set now by the group of g 7. so there is some thought that perhaps these countries could, by russian price, russian oil at any price, if shipped or insured by, by non european company companies. you see that happening at all? well, good. there's certainly going to be a reduction in the availability of tankers. there's no question about that european tankers will be reluctant, will probably will not carry russian oil at violates the cap. so the question is, how many, how much else is there in terms of tankers, indian chinese, chinese tankers, and we know from various sports that russian, russia has been buying off whatever tankers it tend, all tankers, etc, over the last several months. so there, there, there will be a, it won't be

a case that, that oil is, it won't go to asia because of the insurance plan. we've already seen some examples of that actually when there was a similar type of issue to do with insurance or insurance cover. and india, india set up a separate ship registry based out of the emeralds. and that provided cover for the russian ships trading with india. so i would expect a similar type of arrangement where it could be at a government, the government level, it could be at, you know, individual bilateral company such acceptable to both. but what we're hearing from india in particular is that they, they believe that they're kind of a practical solution to get around this. i can be done very quickly with suggest that they've already negotiated with this with russia. and we've seen this type of arrangement with india over the last several years as well. so i don't think the fact that this is insurance base is going to block the volume,

but it clearly will reduce it as survey. so if this plan then relies on each party off the supply chain of russian oil to, to sort of a test and be honest with the price of shipments. how feasible do you actually think it is? our colleagues or dimension to russia, bought more than a 100 time kill during class few months or more prepared for fit in some of that option, or it will by russian tankers. but i think it's going to come out is still didn't give us a reliable information. that is, it will be enough or not. and generally, how many tankers russia will need to sell oil to asian consumers. it's not good if i try to check different

cannot make extra time that it is, but they still don't have such grace. and, but it's important. it's also important that some kind of 2 sectors, oil markers, why not general oil, which is not under the sanction and rational point, by the way. so when not on this russian rule, really, united states, your country will use, say, make money against our or if you have a problem or whatever. and we also believe that some time, if it will work successfully, it's absolutely sure that united says, you know, you have where you send me, can you guess i'm conscious?

it will be including the conscious discipline and they know about this. that's why i bet my child support i, these are russian resistance. use them this new and not market mic and you're always that way. you survey among very people in russia because according to some reports, and this is according to one pull that i read, this is a, a leaked internal polling data in fact, commissioned by the kremlin. that seems to suggest that support for the war and ukraine has plunged from 55 percent of russians who favor at peace talks with ukraine up from 32 percent in july in fact. so people seem to be wanting to look for a way out of the war, and now you have more sanctions on the country. how is this you'd amongst the populate? people don't understand how was use and your oil sanction will fashion. and for

example, i just now buy some rubles, sitting dollars and full of bills at the price will be momentum l. a big guy. but if it stays the same, the bracket is that much at my door. accenture, still not, not, not, i don't understand what you're considering to. so is this your sanction barton? yes. i can say amongst people about, of course, that when people see is that this war continues might no longer than we expect. most of the people who some, some people prefer the morning, but negotiations not there. wow. a nissan over there ross, or was you getting into the majority of the people who ones did you say one piece?

well, no soul, you know, go this program program. this state to be, we don't want to law united states to make di, rasa, that's bring, i needed to read a roaring and we bill rick, we've been talking about european countries as well, who've been suffering from, from high inflation. some countries, obviously at risk of recession as wells, how holds reeling from high energy bills? so surely, governments in europe and the g 7 that took this decision on price caps, they must be weighing their own sort of political risks. of course they do, and it was clear from the beginning that sanctions work both ways. and it is a major challenge for political communication to keep the public on board. because if people simply look at their energy bill, this is nothing that can be explained easily by why they are hard to political tensions. and this is your personal contribution. and so be loyal and support your

government because we are in times of war. this is not that simple, so it's definitely a time of solidarity in the european union that the rich ones support the poor ones and that there will be exceptions if a country is hit harder. for example, bulgaria and hungary get an exception in the general discussion about what to do with oil imports. and they will keep doing this. but of course, this is by far, the biggest risk that social unrest can always pop up if things get out of control . and it is a very sensitive librium. on the other hand, russia isn't that monolithic, as it appears, if we just talk about the kremlin, there's a lot also going on behind the scene. and with every move in this child's chessboard, someone else in russia, benefits from the new situation that changes the internal balance and could also

lead to an imbalance that is equally disturbing as it is with high inflations in europe. would you say, oh rick, that the west has so far failed and weakening moscow's energy export? that is, that has been the aim for the past 12 months or so. while this is just one element in a bigger picture, the west has not failed to send a strong signal that a violation of such time mention was cheap and you get away with it. look, just like crimea, you break international law and then we go back to normal, right? i mean, the think one thing, but the, but the actual numbers and the energy exports, which the western european countries keep saying they want to weaken. that hasn't happened, hasn't. i mean, according to one statistic that i was reading, i mean russia on track to earn more this year from oil sales than it did back in 2021. and that's because of a surgeon global oil prices. well, this is again,

just one piece of a big up of a bigger hostile rushes business model is to sell fossil energy. and this is the 1st and most important element of their business model. and if the western country is cut their dependency from russia and move away into the next stage of the new economy and russia is being left behind, it's not a question of what has been produced in the last few months. this is a game changer in the long run, and russia being cut off from technological imports will face a difficult time in the near future. this is not about this winter. this is a much bigger picture. ok, chris, we for let's bring you and i know you wanted to comment on the, on the strategy whether it's been a success or failure. yeah. actually can, if i can just combine those last 2, come uncertain. so to 2 points make, the 1st is that you know, that there's been a lot of kind of commentary. i think the last few days i would,

i would describe it as political economics. those who think that the price cap and current action is going to bring a collapse in russia and therefore force a change in russia's position is not the, as you've mentioned, russia made a lot of money this year. the trade surface would be about $250000000000.00 or up from 180 last year. and the central bank reserves back up over $600000000.00 again. so even with the drop in volume, which i release is the key next year, what would be the value? but even with that truck, then there's enough money in the covers to going to maintain the sort of economic kind of progress that the kremlin is now planning, which is funded military fund. he industries provide employment support and pay social program. so really there, there is under any realistic scenario with the price cap, there is no danger of a major economic or financial collapse that could then force changes in russia, but,

or dick is quite right. the bigger issue is the long term. the fact that this accumulation of sanctions, particularly the exodus of western expertise, western know how western partnership, the band and technology, all of which is going to have a major impact on the russian economy and on people's lifestyles over the next couple of years. and that really is the 2nd point is you were asking, sorry about the opinion polls. it doesn't surprise me that those results would be now seen. because while when people are not about to lose their jobs and they're, they're not in any danger of being impoverished their, their lives have been impacted. and people know full well. that's over the next couple of years that there's going to be deterioration or apologies. let me just put that to survey last 32nd survey. i mean my, my 2 guests were talking about the, the long term impact on, on russia. how much of a worry is that for, for you no one knows about long so that they can make so much power they can unstable. that's really difficult to

predict long trends if go air and then tie some of the, some russia, they even guillette. russia will know why if nobody is on the west and come to speak with a lot of people, and then i should believe that this was wrong. general strategy that mark more our for rush, i'm more important to produce technology itself and to invest money to that high tech industry. it's about i guess i'm invited. thank you so much for that. thanks sort of mark off over the broken or, and chris we for, we thank you for your time. thanks for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can during the conversation on twitter as well, or handle is a j inside story from myself and the whole team here in delphi. thanks for watching

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