tv Inside Story Al Jazeera December 15, 2022 3:30am-4:01am AST
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as such as its size are not yet known, nor how it will work with souls newly large space operations squadron under it's air force unit. kim, also zira sol. ah . is his algebra? that's good around up now about top stories. france have booked their place in the world cup final against argentina. ah, the defending champions, beating morocco to kneel at the base of stadium. the result and the dream run for the atlas lions who became the 1st arab and african team to make the final for the play croatia in the 3rd place. playoff on saturday. and he richardson spoke to some of morocco's fans at the old bait stadium. withdraw enough for the 3rd place and we wish good luck wasn't enough. we don't need that anymore. tonight you think we
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are really proud of this team moral co. busy did the best in this game, but no problem. 100 he left? well, really, really, really happy for all, all the, much as of this, this team miracle. with still the best for us. they were not bad. the like the 2nd goal of friends with side. right. like yourself side. yeah. well you close was gone . yeah. yeah, i did do good. they did make it to the semi finals. never made it to the semi finals. so. good play. yes. yeah. we get like that place that place is actually not . but you know, the president has announced a new range of new partnerships with african countries. jo button is hosting leaders and delegates in the u. s. capital for 3 days. some of the discussing security economic development, trade and climate change. the u. s. is trying to counter growing chinese and russian influence on the continent. at least 4 people have died and dozens have
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been rescued after a boat carrying asylum seekers capsized in freezing waters between france and the united kingdom agency. se the deaths were avoidable and blamed the u. k government for making safe routes, unavailable for migrants. ukraine's government says its forces have shot down 13 rushing drones that were launched towards the capital cave. russia shells have also had a regional administration building in the city of her son. a turkish court has sentenced is stan bull's mer to more than 2 and a half years in prison. for insulting public officials that came in malta says the ruling is unlawful and politically motivated. the conviction prevents him from holding elected public office for the duration of the sentence. manu was seen as a potential challenger to president richard, type at one in elections next year. those are the headlines were back in half a now right now, it's inside story. ah,
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you energy ministers meet again and fail again to strike a deal to cap the price of natural gas prices of sword since washer invaded ukraine, the blog post to hurt moscow. but can the deep divisions within the e u be overcome? this is inside story. ah hello, welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan,
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european union energy ministers, held their 5th emergency meeting on tuesday to try to set a price cap for natural gas. but once again, they failed. member states 1st promised a ceiling on prices in october, but a divided or what it should be. they want to punish russia by paying less for its gas, while also protecting consumers from prices that have sort since the ukraine war began. the split is between those wanting tough measures and those fearing that to low a cap might affect supplies that could happen, it produces sell to other markets instead of the e. u with higher rates on offer elsewhere. and as you ministers want to avoid a sharp increase in the gas price like in august, they're going to try to reach a compromise at another round of talks. next week. will be only one open issue for the discussion on monday. ah, and this is the prize level triggering car,
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the mechanism we have to make sure that the situation from this august will not be repeated. i think we are almost there. but now we need to get together and show that unity is not then empty worked. but the core value of the will, which we all subs subscribe to. some members of worried about the impact of sanctions and the price capital net own people. hungary, for example, says it's national interests come 1st. it bruce banner here in brussels. the debate continues to be dominated by sanctions rather than piece building. and there is a big problem, a very big problem. even though thanks and have clearly been shown to have failed. sanctions are failed. policy and sanctions have thus far lead european decision making and european reactions the war into a dealing to. i would like to reiterate that we consider the sanction policy as a whole to be a misguided policy when discussing sanctions,
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the most important aspect for us is that hungary and national interest, a not harmed and hungry energy supply isn't jeopardize. so far, there's been agreement on some points, check, industry and trade to mr. yourself. sir keller says that they've agreed to keep what's known as over the counter contract out of the cap. those contracts directly negotiated between countries and suppliers outside official gas exchanges. the exemption would allow for more sources of supply. they've also agreed to review the measure at the end of february to see how effective it's been. and the deal will include ways to swiftly remove the cap in case it has negative knock on effects. ah. so let's bring in our guests for today's discussion from bern, we're joined by cornelia my up, the ceo of my, our resources and energy policy advisory from moscow. chris grief,
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up the ceo at macro advisory, a strategic consultancy focused on eurasia, and from warsaw void check. she belsky, the editor in chief of the political magazine. visegrad, welcome to you or cornelia. let's start with you. what exactly is a price cap on gas designed to do hot russia or protect e u consumers or both? and will it work? i think it's, it's designed to do both, but i'm not sure it's effective on either am. it's designed to make sure the price is don't go too high as we have seen. you know, in summer prices went so high that people really feared for, for how they could supply. they could supply their, their, their population adequately. and it's also supposed to put a cap on, on, on the rush, and on that mot, russia can earn that. you have to understand that when you look at gas, and before the ukraine war, about 40 percent off,
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then all gas coming to europe came from man. came from russia in germany. it was 55 percent. since then, it's really gone down to about a 17 piss and, and people are putting on off shore liquids em offshore. weave gas, if occasion terminals, all sorts of things to make sure they can get more l n t, admittedly more expensive. but europe is not only slowly and steadily very quickly, winning itself off, it's total dependency on russian gas. right. so really, if i, as you say that the dependence upon russian gas has fallen, why are certain e u, member states, why do they feel it's so important to introduce this price captain? why are they trying to push it through? well, they're pushing it through because some countries really very much still depend on russian gas. if you look at an austria, if you look at, you know, slovakian and those bordering states,
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they're still really need. and some states in the western balkans, they still need russian gas. so they want to avoid that too much money goes to russia and, and, and then to the war efforts. but them, but it's a matter, you know, this is a matter over the next 1218 months looking forward. it's really a matter of where will the gas for europe come from, but it will be a lot more expensive l n g is more expensive than russian pipeline gas, which comes from the weston and the west and siberian gas fields on an infrastructure that's basically paid off, so you're having new infrastructure, more expensive gas, so it's, so prices are gonna go up in europe, no matter what chris reefer in moscow, how it russia react, that if a cap on the price of russian gas was implemented, where, where it wouldn't hurt rush or a tool can, you know, kind of get a good around the cap. well, 1st of all,
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to say that stare is much less a commentary and certainly much less debate about the proposed gas price a kept. and there is or has been about the oil price cap. and certainly we, we've seen a very fierce political reaction to the proposed boy price cap. i even are now expecting that president putin will sign legislation making is illegal for any rest producer to sell on under the terms of the hard press cap. there has not been or the any commentary about the gas price cap. but one of the reasons is the course, the price level is begin to gauge the 275 year as a t t f. the benchmark price, ah, the price of gas has only ever been above that rapes for only a few days in august. the current price is almost half that level, it's about
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a $130.00 so, so that's one reason why there's gonna much less excitement about this in russia big because the levels are being set so high. and also, i think the other reason is because of course, russia does have options when it comes to transferring oil. and we see of see a great effort now to secure tankers and other roads to shift on to raise. you can't do that. a gas of course, because it's pipeline routed. so i think for now to position in moscow is there simply waiting to see what is agreed? what would be the impact? and i then will only then will we get a reaction from us. but it's, it's sort of itself, it's not going to have much time because that is our resource. i'm sorry, down in let me clarify what you were saying that the current price of gases is well below where this, this camp is, is, is, is thought it's going to be implemented. so it's not gonna make much difference. no, it's not the current price. it's 130 years and the price can propose was $275.00.
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so it's, it's a long, long way office. i'm assuming that the reason why europe once to agree this is because they are looking forward to next year. really a probably, europe is not going to have much of an energy problem. this winter is already enough, gas has been secured as the previous speaker, sad has been very big in ports of l. n, g. and so reserves are high and it shouldn't be a problem this winter, but it's, it's already looking like in which were dangerous situation for europe coming in to to next winter may not be able to get the same energy supplies next summer as they, as a got this summer because china did not buy as much energy as a contract and therefore allowing that energy to go to europe. if the time these economy recovers as it now appears to be, then china will take that energy and europe on get it. so the position therefore is we could be looking at a much higher or a gas price and greater volatility in the gas market this time next year. and i
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think the mechanism therefore, is aimed at that rather than anything more immediate for check. what's poland position on this? it's one of the countries that's pushing hard for this camp is good. yes, bowden is one of the country that pushes hard for the camp. but as also one of the countries that has been for a long time pushing for european energy independence or interdependence by proposing and. ready pushing for the energy packages that will build up european energy market as a whole and not disconnect and divided market of nation states that has been abused by the other players like russia for their own benefit and the weakening, weakening the block. currently the, the gas price cap is being pushed down as much as possible. countries like problems and i believe the 20 as well. and should there be a big, there's a government about on that on the prize? i don't think so. of course there is, there is, there is something behind closed doors that we do. we don't know yet what it's
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coming to be, but it's part importantly we have to remember is part of a broader effort called re power you. it's the commission effort to make europe as a blog more independent from weaponized inc. gas prices, gas deliver, as energy delivers to europe by specifically russia, any other actors in the future? and it's a long term strategy. so just like my previous speakers said, it's about building up a resilience for the next year and the future year in terms of acting together as a blog and not this united as nation states markets, but just don't have any sympathy for landlord countries like hungry and austria who of course don't have ports to take l n g and, and don't want to cap on on russian gas. that's the whole point of building interconnectivity. poland has been at the forefront of proposing inter connectors
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and buildings. in fact, since 2008, 9 the gas rises when. ready rushes, turning off their, their delivery of gas to europe. specifically, central europe has been hit land along with other countries of central east in europe and germany and many other countries. i've been starting to build by with european support, so called interconnect doors to make the gas markets truly european and not landlocked to nation states. so austria and check lock and angry. they're being offered and they're being, they're having these interconnect or is built to make the, the energy market and the gas market, specifically fully accessible to all europe and them to be more resilience against such kind of blockades, by, by ro, doctors clearly let's, let's continue with this idea of, of the interconnected world, the e. u. energy independence, co, interdependence. is that, is that wishful thinking?
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do you think there will never be independence but into connect that with of europe started to build into connect exactly way before 2008. they started when they rehabilitated when actually u. s. money rehabilitate that the gas brom m pipelines. they were interconnect the spilled from their broker in them in the, in, in holland you know, with, with the noise noise c, m, british gas. so this is been a trend and it's really important because we get gas from algeria. you know, we get gas from, from the mediterranean. then we get all the l m g of in spain and the mediterranean in holland, in england, in them, in and now in germany. so yes, this interconnectivity is really important. so gas becomes more fun durable. the problem with gas is oil. if you find oil and oil, we'll find the market as them our previous speaker, mr. weaver said, you know,
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there's been now a big shadow fleet bought the specially by the russians to ship uh, oil to places where, who do not adhere to the oil price cap. that's not possible with with gas unless it's l. n g with pipeline gas. so d's in the connect us, oh, really the key to make and to make gas sponsor a bowl and yest, of europe has been working on this actually since about 1998 from various places and them and, and it needs to, it needs to speed that up, chris, their m. oscar, what, what impact a sanctions against russia having on ordinary people, you talked about the fact that people are formal, worked out of about a approach couple oil or they are on gas is, is any of this having any impact on daily lives there in russia, hours but these issues are not just the diagnosed on price and gets into feeling the sanctions and very much a local government level or as economist and level, the ordinary people, you know,
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going about the daily lives. people are course a concert are aware and are affected by say, the travel plans like to suit nurses and no longer cross the border deposit countries or poland, et cetera, ah, price increases. we've seen this year because of trade disruptions. and there is a general concerned about what the economy impacts next year. people are generally more aware that rush is now entering a phase or you know where the accumulation of sanctions is going to start having a bigger impact on economy and jobs and their for their, their lives. so this is there's a general concern there for about the accumulation of the back to sanctions. people are not talking about oil price, cap or gas price, tap or any those specific issues that city actually government level and as a say, all pick up and discussions been about the oil price, not the gas cap. and you know, and again, you have to look,
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look at the 2 things wanted horses, there's been a big disruption on gas volumes of the north stream. one was suspended and, and then i, it's not been taken out of action. i saw volumes of gas going into europe to the, the juice for pipeline and chew the turkish to a pipeline are much less than, than usual. that's a much bigger factor in terms of economic packed affected russian volumes have been substantially reduced. and i, you know, and price as i say, this year we seen a big jump in price. but russia is being used to a very low price look much less than a $100.00 for, for every year up to this year. so i really don't think therefore even if there is a gas price cap put in place at anything above a $100.00 t t f, i don't think the rest is going to react with an anything like the same way as they reacted to the office. can i think they live with it? all right, let's, let's talk about the, that the ears, apparent inability to, to come to any sort of deal to fight unity on this vortex. at the beginning of the
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program, we pointed out that the check energy minister said that his fellow ministers could face a reputation risk if they don't agree on this cap to stop the future price spikes. now if 90 percent of the deal is done, what's the problem? what is preventing it getting over the line time and time again? well, we can only assume as we have no credible accounts of a 1000000, i'm a report that. ready to testify, what about what is happening and behind the closed door, but there are always countries in ear that's used cards to negotiate their individual interest on potentially even disconnected from this particular energy policy. and countries like that, for instance, hungry have been oftentimes using the needs to agree on certain colon foreign policy agenda as as a token in negotiating. some something completely different along with, with other countries regarding rule of law or regarding some other types of funding
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that they're seeking. so i would not. busy i would not be surprised that again, country like this or the one that i mentioned or another may be finding it hard to agree at 1st because it's seeking a side deal if there is a parable negotiation coming going on with, with, with respect to the individual interests of the given country, but that's purely speculative. that's however, the logic usually decisions are being reached that these deals are being done and seen that in the support are hungry for the 18000000000. supports a 1000000 euro support package for ukraine only this week, week which is which has been opposed by hunger previously. and angry. agree to that in exchange, direct exchange for making us a few steps back by the european commission in terms of cutting funds for rule of law conditionality, amelia is any of this going to make any difference
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a tool for consumers? people like you and i, when we pay our gas or electricity bills, or this is all academic at the moment, but could across count on gas ultimately drive prices high. you said you think it would fair? well, we still be paying more for, i'm guessing the electricity regardless we we will be paying more for all a guests and for electricity because even if we have a guys, a gas price cap, and even if the gas prices, as mister weaver pointed out, you know, very rarely was the gas price above the price of the that the price cap. but when you look at the getting redirecting trade flows is always a very expensive found the taking whether that's now oil or whether that's gas and especially with gas and l. n. g's a lot, dear, are a lot more expensive, so we as we're winning ourselves off russian gas and use more l n g at more gas
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from other sources, which will be more expensive. yeah, obviously we will have to, to, to, to deal with that. and it then depends on how our utility spy, the gas when they buy it, how they buy, and then wait, when we look at it. now, europe was extremely lucky that china had to siro covet policy, anti economy didn't really boom. so a lot of cargoes, as mr. weaver said, we're die. we directed to europe, where they could get better prices. but once china picks up, and then this is east asian, i'm, you know, place, which is a china korea, japan, which are the largest and consumers of l. n. she. once that consumption picks up, you know, you will need europe will need to pay a lot to, to entice cargoes to come here. and what we have in store though is u. s l n g. but that's perm, that is still in the permitting process and we're still about 3 to 5 years off from
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that hitting markets. so, you know, the gas and oil are not light switches. these are, these are these, these, these some info does. infrastructure takes time to create and it takes time to we direct that said the trade flows. so yes, in short, it will get more expensive for the european consumer, christine, to do agree with, we're quarterly, we're saying has not law about, but the european consumer about where russia will sell its gas at a counselor to europe. ah yes, and i think look that this is the difference. obviously. what discussions on the gas cap f from oil because the oil cap is very specific to russia, but the gas cap proposal is will effect on gas purchased by europe. and i think it is right to focus on n n g. and the headlines were, it was 30 focus on on piped gas, because that's coming from russia you're for, it's targeting russia. so you get to, to get headlines. but the much more serious issue is,
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what will be the price cap analogy? will there be a price gap analogy? because that is a more portable, movable products, if your caps the price and demand, you know, from asia and elsewhere, spikes, those tankers will simply turn around and go elsewhere. so i think europe will have to be extremely careful on what will be the price cap mechanism and the review mechanism for ellen. gee, rather than fur for pipe gas because we know the future as we meet hers ist and to try and acquire more and more elegy, because it can be sorts of different places, reduce pipe gas, particularly from, from, from russia us. so the question of price cap analogy, i think is much more critical than the price cap on the oil or the gas coming in from, from russia. because yeah, if we get a strong recovery the asian markets, they will pay a lot more for the gas, and europe could end up with gas shortages in addition to higher prices,
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if they don't get, if they get this pricing mechanism route for check is, is that much appetite in the you to cap the price of, of ellen g. well i, i don't know about the particular issue here, whether there is much appetite in europe, but there is much appetite in europe for broad energy package reforming and then the re power you program. they include the gas, the gas caps. it's also about introducing essentially the framework of a common european market and innovation in terms of getting more greener, alternative energy is more effective and an energy sources and lowering the consumption levels. so we need to look at it from the holistic perspective of what the you, meaning the commission and the countries want to achieve here. and there is a general agreement into the, into the direction it is going. there is, of course,
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there are, there are some concerns that my, my co speakers have already mentioned, and they are supported by european national european central bank that also is worried about not making the right call on the prize cod in terms of the level of the price gas that may create shortages and this concern is being on the other hand, waited by the immediate effect of introducing a price cap, which is expected by countries like century center p. and one is poland, to have a direct immediate effect on the income levels of russia through which russia funds, the war effort in ukraine. the, i'm afraid we're going to have to leave it. we are out of time. thank you to you all. cornelia, my chris, we and boycheck she bills, kate, as always, thank you for watching. don't forget you can see the program again at any time by going to the website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. you can join us
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with our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story ad. as always, you can join the conversation on twitter handle at ha, inside story for me, adrian finnegan, of the whole team here in bo. huh. we'll see you again. i forgot, ah ah, on examining the head dying is how big a breakthrough is this story for 3 years, unflinching journalism, i can see the part of the tree where 2 of the bullets hits there about my head. height. sharing personal stories with
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